Mini Normal 2326 | Everything has exploded !

[Dannflor]

Is there a way for us to confirm that there IS a jailkeeper in this game? Like will the jailkept person be told "you were kept in jail" or some such thing?

a jailkept person cannot use their night action, if they have one

but we should not out a townie with a night action just to prove this

[Dannflor]

my initial inclination is to revisit vivax's trajectory on Roden because I remember initially thinking that his town read on Roden looked like white knighting

but I would want a second opinion on that, probably from someone familiar with vivax's scum game

[Dannflor]

does anyone have a strong read on grackaroni at all

[Dannflor]

does anyone have a strong read on grackaroni at all

Not super strong but he's a lean town for me

Why

I just scrolled through his ISO

And idk there is nothing *scummy* exactly but nothing that makes me want to town read him

[Dannflor]

VOTE: naerys

[Dannflor]

VOTE: naerys

Why, exactly?

shrug

in my lim pool

not really interested in hu tao or vivax as alternatives right now

[Dannflor]

i could also do grackaroni and cheese

[Dannflor]

let's have a posting break so dunnstral can catch up

[Dannflor]

this game is giving me a headache

[Dannflor]

hu tao, in world where vivax is town, where do you think scum are?

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

I'm about to start work, but I've just a a quick skim through which I'll have to go over again later. My first impression is that Hu Tao's vote on me at the point in time it occurred struck me as pushing a competing wagon to Roden, which I believe was a Town-driven wagon. Providing Roden is telling the truth, it is a common scum tactic to try to pit town wagons against each other, so if one fails the other will more than likely go through, and suspicion will remain hanging over that first wagon heading into day two.

I'm also considering a Dunn vote, as although I've liked some of his observations this game, he simply hasn't done enough. I would vote Naerys too.

I'll be back in a few hours.

luca do you think the team is like exactly dunn/naerys/HT?

do you think there can be a wolf in the super active posters and if so who is your pick?

I guess my reads are kind of aligning with yours but I'm much less comfortable with that than you seem to be

like HT/Dunn/Naerys doesn't really make sense to me just based on how those three are playing

[Dannflor]

it's kinda wild to have roden at null lol

[Dannflor]

intent to hammer

[Dannflor]

i feel as though if Dunn was a PR he would've claimed it by now

[Dannflor]

I'll wait

[Dannflor]

any thoughts on the game dunnstral?

[Dannflor]

I will probably hammer soon, unless you or anyone else specifically wants more time for something

[Dannflor]

VOTE: dunnstral

[Dannflor]

nope

[Dannflor]

why is oats dancing around saying yes or no lol

[Dannflor]

*twirls*

[Dannflor]

everything is absurd

[Dannflor]

kinda town reading grack's posting today

[Dannflor]

unsure why Ninja is getting all the heat for bad reads when like Roden/Dunnstral/HuTao were basically consensus null/scum reads all of yesterday

[Dannflor]

I kinda have to stop giving gob so much credit because I think he can fake his tone as scum and at this point there are too many other towny slots

[Dannflor]

imo, you can have completely different reactions and they can be towny reactions for different reasons

every townie isn't going to react the exact same way

i kinda agree that I like both you and OOO today

[Dannflor]

unsure why Ninja is getting all the heat for bad reads when like Roden/Dunnstral/HuTao were basically consensus null/scum reads all of yesterday

Agreed with this too. Thoughts on who had the worst beginning of day today?

probably oats by a country mile, idk I haven't thought about it too much yet

the wording of 2431 feels weirdly pedantic, like he's trying to give himself an out in case he was tracked to the kill or something

[Dannflor]

I am also thinking about whether scum that may have thought they were guiltied (if any scum thought that might be the case) may have used today to try to distance from their partners

but i don't really have thoughts on who was actually doing that yet

[Dannflor]

I kinda think oatsmaster/Luca have scum equity together

[Dannflor]

Spoiler:

How about DP and Dann kiss and make up (***) and vote Luca?

I don’t wanna vote Luca
I want everyone to vote for Roden

Dann, I’m not yeeting dp today because he likely self resolves. Just simple math.

VOTE: roden

I’m still not convinced by the Luca stuff.

Is it just roden/luca/dann?

Would not be mad and that’s my current team

like aside from a few nothing posts / questions between the two early in the game, oats goes from town reading Luca to having him in his team right around the time he's getting more pressure from several other slots in the game

then oats has probably the worst reaction to hu tao and hard pushes luca today

[Dannflor]

i guess not hard pushing, mostly sheeping OOO and DP

[Dannflor]

I'm just sad that I sheeped Oats and Ooo, I had already said that Luca's Iso on dunn looked scummy, I should have stuck with my convictions and yeeted Luca.

:< yeah, I mean part of it and this is definitely me being impatient was that I didn’t think we could get enough people on Luca and I wanted to progress the game

i feel like this is the type of post i make as scum when i successfully push a counterwagon to my buddy

[Dannflor]

VOTE: oatsmaster

[Dannflor]

I'm just sad that I sheeped Oats and Ooo, I had already said that Luca's Iso on dunn looked scummy, I should have stuck with my convictions and yeeted Luca.

:< yeah, I mean part of it and this is definitely me being impatient was that I didn’t think we could get enough people on Luca and I wanted to progress the game

i feel like this is the type of post i make as scum when i successfully push a counterwagon to my buddy

why did you decide to vote for Dunn when your scumread DP was on that wagon?

i wanted the day to be over and i'd decided to just play assuming that DP was town

[Dannflor]

i guess not hard pushing, mostly sheeping OOO and DP

What makes you so sure that DP is town all of a sudden?

Not how I had you in my mind.

I wouldn't say "so sure" but I am town reading him

idk it was a number of little things but mostly I think it kinda clicked for me eventually that a lot of our clashing was just having two very different ways of approaching the game and I think since recalibrating with that in mind he looks a lot townier, and the fact he backed off me too makes me think he's actually trying to solve the game

[Dannflor]

at the moment I'm only really looking at a pool of

[naerys, gob, luca blight, oatsmaster] for scum

I think everyone else is town

[Dannflor]

Why did you want the day to be over?
Why did you decide DP is town 4 days to deadline, if you believed him to be mafia?

Dunn was a good enough elimination in my mind and I didn't want to risk outing more PRs

I don't understand the second question

after my push on DP was met with like 3 people telling me i was stupid i decided to back off, play as if he was town, and recalibrate. over time that became a genuine town read

[Dannflor]

this answers the second thing, but why didnt you go with luca lynch instead of dunn then?

i was town reading luca at the time

i feel less strong about my reasons to town read him now, i feel like there's been a lack of paranoia about my slot from him

i didn't really have any reason to town read Dunn

[Dannflor]

is there a reason you post this now and not before hu tao revealed her no reveal secret?

I kinda just wanted to wait and see what the guilty was and evaluate based on it for tomorrow

[Dannflor]

VOTE: luca

ok i can do this instead.

@ooo i am strongly town reading ninja but i got to go, i’ll try to put the read into words when i return to thread

[Dannflor]

is there a reason you post this now and not before hu tao revealed her no reveal secret?

I kinda just wanted to wait and see what the guilty was and evaluate based on it for tomorrow

why, exactly? what does it cost you if you're town?

I’m just lazy and didn’t particularly want to give scum an idea about how to play around me going into tomorrow if i didnt have to

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

rereading

[Dannflor]

I’m gonna be absent today due to social obligations

I’ll be back and finish rereading / catching up tonight

[Dannflor]

k im catching up now, sorry for my absence yesterday

[Dannflor]

lmao i have definitely seen that exact thing from ChatGPT before

still reading up but someone mentioned I started out town leadery and have been fading away from that

that's definitely an intentional choice, there are already way too many loud voices in this game I think it's much better if I default to a support role here

[Dannflor]

Hai.

UNVOTE:

I did nothing today.

Where's Dannflor ?

slowly catching up, trying not to fall behind on the thread as i do

I'm also working and it's been busier than expected

[Dannflor]

grack / dp don't really make sense as teamed together to me

[Dannflor]

yeah wait lol dp/luca make sense

[Dannflor]

makes no sense*

[Dannflor]

Wish we had some people actually have opinions to the hu Tao claim

Dann do you think mafia posts this when there's an unCCd investigative claim?

I still don't really understand why this makes oatsmaster town

I don't think shading a townie doing weird/outrageous stuff is outside of the scum playbook, like, at all

[Dannflor]

so here's the thing that bugging me about the whole teamliquid crew, but specifically keeps drawing me back to oatsmaster as scum:

the whole group seem to be pretty highly focused on being correct and consistent, and that being incorrect and/or having inconsistencies in your posts is a sign of scum. I'm not going to argue for or against that, just trying to establish a pattern I'm seeing as it informs my read of oatsmaster right now.

Okay, so, given that the basis for most of their scum cases are centered around the idea of "X contradicted himself" or "Y said this and then later said that instead" (I'm simplifying here I know but bear with me please), it would seem to me that any scum players in the TL group might try extra hard not to fall into the trap of making one of these mistakes and getting cased for it. Yeah?

"But, Dann!" I hear you saying "Don't town players try to stay consistent and appear towny too?" Well, yes. That's probably true. BUT, I think mafia who think like this are more likely to post in an inorganic matter in order to avoid entrapping themselves. They are going to be *more* conscious of making sure they don't show any inconsistencies and as such might post in an... awkward way to avoid it.

Alright let’s gooo

Is this a no for you?

I checked the possible roles and I’m 95% sure that cop checks can’t be altered

And, I have to say, this post just reads like someone who is trying not to incriminate themselves. Like, I don't know why it's more natural for any towny to say this than just "no." I really feel like Oats was preparing to call Hu Tao scum if they had anything but a straight up cop guilty, and I feel like this phrasing contains some fear from Oats that Hu Tao might have some result that isn't a cop check.

Like, what is the point of calling out cop checks specifically here?

It also gives Oats an out of being able to be like "Oh, yeah there's something that would explain a Watcher result or a Tracker result, I thought we were talking about COP CHECKS"

Guilty = cop

Then there's this reassertion that Hu Tao could have only been claiming a cop guilty, which honestly just makes very little sense. On this website, there are basically 0 normal roles that can affect a cop guilty. It sounds like TL Mafia Games are even lower powered. So in that case, why on earth would Hu Tao ask if anyone had anything to explain first if they were waiting on a cop guilty?

It really just feels like Oats was worried that Hu Tao had something incriminating that wasn't a straight up Cop, and Oats wanted to entrap Hu Tao into the narrative of having a cop guilty, so he could win the potential 1v1 if needed.

*****

anyway what I'm trying to say here is I think this is the case of someone trying not to incriminate themselves and as such their posting comes off as very awkward for it

and i think that's just more likely to come from scum

VOTE: oatsmaster

[Dannflor]

Town: OOO, Hu Tao, Ninja

i think this is a pretty solid top town tier and as such I want to say vivax is also town

for other reasons too but i think this is a cute reason

[Dannflor]

also getting to the point where it just feels like gob is mimicking a caricature of himself

[Dannflor]

there are other results, such as a tracked action to the night kill target that could also be construed as a guilty

[Dannflor]

gun to head i think luca is town

[Dannflor]

You also convieniently leave out that I did reply “no” to you when you asked before Hu Tao said it was fake.
Not really sure how I’m trying “not to incriminate myself”

you still had to be pressed to give a straight forward answer, like 3 different times

i feel that's more likely to come from scum faced with the uncertainty of hu tao's claim

[Dannflor]

gun to head i think luca is town

partially because i think oats is scum and i don't think this is scum theatre at this point

partially because luca said he was disappointed in me for joining his wagon and it just didn't feel like scum AtE to me

[Dannflor]

Town: OOO, Hu Tao, Ninja

i think this is a pretty solid top town tier and as such I want to say vivax is also town

for other reasons too but i think this is a cute reason

Can you expand on the other reasons cause i am having trouble reading his slot with his wild scum teams.

Part of it *is* his wild scum teams? I feel like Vivax is operating in his own world and isn't really tuned in to what everyone thinks the most likely teams are. I think he would have to be as scum. I think he'd more conscious about making sure his scum teams made sense.

D1, I don't really understand why he'd start out white knighting Roden and then start to reevaluate him towards end of day (before he claimed). I think it would've been way more straightforward to just stick with the white knighting since it's not like Vivax's support was needed for Roden to get pushed to claim

[Dannflor]

also getting to the point where it just feels like gob is mimicking a caricature of himself

So mafia?

i think it's likely

[Dannflor]

there are other results, such as a tracked action to the night kill target that could also be construed as a guilty

Nobody would use that phrasing

well i would, and i have seen lots of people use that phrasing before

[Dannflor]

yes you caught me im lying

[Dannflor]

gun to head i think luca is town

Do you think the same things that myself and ooo have noticed are untrue? not alignment indicative?

the whole luca contradicted himself by saying ninja's posts reflects his thoughts on the game almost entirely thing does nothing for me

the most compelling points to me were about luca seeming passive and being content with the gamestate and overly reasonably

i'm not really seeing the latter anymore

as i said the former does nothing for me

[Dannflor]

and being overly reasonable*

[Dannflor]

grack has also been going against the grain of late

i feel like he had a natural evaluation between D1 and D2

fair point about Vivax's reads not making sense as either alignment though

[Dannflor]

Mildly confused why dann didn’t seem to react to my response to his “case”

i do not think it productive

[Dannflor]

I can yeet gob for never trying to make sense.
But that‘s about my only reason, I think the derp is more often town but I can‘t know it for sure.

And Ninja it‘s not that Luca is the only one forcing himself through unpleasantries but rather that he acted as if Oats was his only concern there (maybe cause he‘s so obstinate which takes away all energy from scum.)

I want to lim into gob/luca/HT

of these names I would join you on gob

[Dannflor]

How is Luca not passive? He still basically just comes out to talk some shit with me and dp and leaves. He posted some quick iso “reviews” at the end of d1 but didn’t follow up on any of them

I think he's pushing a narrative of the game that he believes is true now

I think he believes there's scum in you/DP and is doing with his time in thread what he can to further that

[Dannflor]

I refuse to dance

[Dannflor]

It does, I think HT is town.

If HT is mafia then I think oats is almost definitely town. If HT is mafia...

it probably makes it more likely that I'm wrong on Luca Blight

gob still probably has equal chances of being scum

[Dannflor]

it looks like luca is trying to get people to see his side of things / get you yeeted to me

[Dannflor]

VOTE: gob

[Dannflor]

we were talking about your scum reads there

[Dannflor]

I don't put much stock in gob's ability to read me, the reasons i think he could be mafia have more to do with how he's not really engaging with the central tensions of the game and has been primarily pushing Ninja who I think is town, not due to how he is or isn't reading me

I will admit I have lower motivation in this game due to a number of factors and have deliberately taken a bit of a step back, but that's something that could happen regardless of my alignment

[Dannflor]

VOTE: oatsmaster

[Dannflor]

decided i felt better about my oats scum read than my gob scum read


and 3350 just felt gross to me

[Dannflor]

luca you asked me about my read progression on you?

I think D1 I was largely town reading you not because you were excessively towny, but because your posts were reasonable, safe, generally towny and I had a bunch of other suspects that you didn't really fit with.

Come D2, I am town reading both DP and OOO who have both been the primary people pushing you, which gave me some pause to reconsider. I see the points about your D1 play being safe, but there's also the point that you hard defended me in a way that... probably comes from town. Idk, I have massive trouble reading people based on how they treat me specifically but I THINK the hard defense isn't a position you'd want to stick yourself as scum. Then I think the way you kept on after DP and OOO was probably a losing position and scum!you would know it.

That being said, I haven't felt confident enough on these points to hard defend you today. sorry if you're town and I've been letting you take a bunch of heat. but also, I thought it was probably best to not further clog up the thread because I think you're the only one who can convince the people pushing you that you are town

In general, my confidence in this game has waned since D1 when I hard pushed both Ninja and DP and later decided my reads on both of those slots were wrong. I feel better about my PoE now, particularly my read on Oatsmaster, but there are a lot of difficult to read slots in this game and as such I don't have as much confidence as I usually might right now

[Dannflor]

vivax / oats is a team that makes some kind of sense

vivax's arguments about the wagon compositions and wagon speeds feels super contrived


i felt the same about 2687

[Dannflor]

exterminate exterminate

[Dannflor]

me and luca? sure i can see how you could think that

how on earth do i or luca make sense teamed with DP

[Dannflor]

Vivax town I think

okay now can you explain it because I'm having a hard time imagining his thoughts as real

[Dannflor]

I mean like.. I simply cannot understand how he goes from point A (post 3289) to point B (3551), since everything Vivax does between that time fits perfectly "in his own world". The only thing where he differs from the path he is pushing, is when he votes for gob, but that should not be a scumtell for Dann, since Dann at the time (and still) thinks gob is mafia. The fact that Vivax thinks Oats is town shouldn't matter to Dann either, because it hasn't been a problem for him at the time of post 3289.

I understand some people are calling Vivax mafia, because nothing he says makes sense. But that should not be an issue for Dann, because for him it was a reason to townread Vivax. It's very likely Dann is actually mafia based on just this read that changes for no apparent reason.

I have a hard time believing someone actually believes either Luca or I can be teamed with DP based on our interactions with each other - that's all

[Dannflor]

there's a certain line where it stops being genuine i think

[Dannflor]

Like do you want me to quote posts or what? You literally said that!!

I know!! I changed my mind! I don't know what else you want me to say

I don't know how to deal with me flipping my reads with you TL guys

I can point to a dozen town games where I come to exact opposite reads on a slot, sometimes in back to back posts! because i am always reconsidering my reads and trying to view things from different angles and conviction is not a strength of mine

I thought about Vivax more and specifically when he started saying I could be teamed with DP, that struck me as just a line too far. It made me think that maybe instead of him just being a townie in his own world, the teams are more made up to try to mimic that because that just seemed like a bridge too far

[Dannflor]

like, what do you think the scum motivation is for me flipping my read on Vivax?

or do you just think i forgot what it was

[Dannflor]

I thought about Vivax more and specifically when he started saying I could be teamed with DP, that struck me as just a line too far. It made me think that maybe instead of him just being a townie in his own world, the teams are more made up to try to mimic that because that just seemed like a bridge too far

[Dannflor]

vivax / oats is a team that makes some kind of sense

vivax's arguments about the wagon compositions and wagon speeds feels super contrived

i felt the same about 2687

i also think this is true

[Dannflor]

DP/Luca/Dann to the graaaaave

this was the post that sparked that line of thought about not real reads to me

if he was pushing the idea before i didn't read it / absorb it

[Dannflor]

i thought he town read me before then tbh

[Dannflor]

i don't think ninja's wagon analysis is good

i don't think it makes her scum

[Dannflor]

i was looking at vivax's reads in 3253 when i town read him, it looks like he town reads me based on that, and there's not indication that he thought i was scum with DP

[Dannflor]

why doesnt it make her scum?
why does a townie say something she said?

idk why a townie couldn't, the logic seems consistent with how she's viewed the game and made reads throughout

I don't think the analysis is correct but nothing is consistent with how she's been playing the game

[Dannflor]

nothing is inconsistent*

[Dannflor]

i was looking at vivax's reads in 3253 when i town read him, it looks like he town reads me based on that, and there's not indication that he thought i was scum with DP

if i did miss something beyond this, I will fully admit I've been skimming * a lot * this day phase

[Dannflor]

I think one thing that bothers me about oatsmaster's play is that he's spent a lot of time piggybacking off other people's pushes

I feel like he's spent a lot of time kinda adding on or backing up cases made by you and DP, but I can't remember a single push oatsmaster has made that's been entirely his own or at least truly started by himself, and that kinda sends off alarm bells because it doesn't seem like any of you TL guys have issues pushing things independently

so I'm worried he's scum hiding behind the forces of you / DP doin the dirty work for him

I'd feel a lot better about him if you could point to some independent pushes he's made probably

[Dannflor]

superfluousninja is my most confident town read

[Dannflor]

VOTE: gob

[Dannflor]

gg wp

[Dannflor]

wp to scum

thanks for modding gypyx

the game was frustrating at times but i feel there's a lot to learn from it

[Dannflor]

i think town had a bit of an issue in this game with not having enough players willing to play more of a "supportive role" so to speak, so when it came down to it town had a really hard time forming any type of block or working together

i kinda tried to adjust my play halfway through but it was a little too late to really have any effect i think

distancing between darth and hu tao was very well played, and gob did his job taking townies out on his way out

[Dannflor]

meta has it's uses but most people use it incorrectly