Newbie 844 - Game Over (Scum Win)

[xvart]

Hello everyone. Let's get hunting! Startrasmission - is that Tim Allen or Joel Osteen in your avatar?

xvart.

[xvart]

Vote: No lynch

until more discussion occurs on the first day and/or someone reprimands me for being suspicious.

I would vote randomly, but that just seems unfair.

A "no lynch" vote on the first day? I can't imagine a more anti-town move.

Vote: Pyrogen

xvart.

[xvart]

How is this anti-town? The mafia want a townie lynched the first day, and they have a 7/9 chance of doing so. A no lynch on the first day is better than a no lynch later on.

If that was true, we would just do a no lynch every day until it was only four people left (two town and two mafia) and then we have a 50:50 shot at killing a scum? We have to lynch every single day; the only time I can see using a no lynch is in a bigger theme game where there might be some strange mechanics. We never want to do a no lynch, ever.

If everyone votes for a no lynch immediately we would have no information to compare against for future days, as people start dying. We have to push and press people to see what they say and who they say it about, then compare it in later days. No lynching does nothing to benefit the town. And, if we press some people maybe a mafia will make a slip. Just because it is day one does not mean we can't make an educated guess about who the mafia might be, which is why I am voting for you (right now).

We'll let the IC and SEs weigh in on the "no lynch," but I'm pretty sure they will agree.

xvart.

xvart.

[xvart]

Scan the first few days of any of the newbie games and tell me how many of them go "no lynch" on the first day.

xvart.

[xvart]

Question for Annachie , xvart and Pyrogen: What level of experience do you have at this game?

I've played mafia a lot in person with small groups and a deck of cards. It was very basic, no complex roles. Just mafia townies, a doc, a police, and mafia. I've also played two games at another forum which led me to this forum. The games at the other forum had specific timelines (night lasted 24 hours and day lasted 48 hours, no exceptions).

xvart.

[xvart]

My early vote no lynch was really only meant to be in the spirit of a random vote. It was never seriously for no-lynch. But I stuck with it to spark a little discussion, if you will.

To be clear I don't support the no-lynch policy. It gives us only two more lynches in which we have to lynch at least one mafia, or we're screwed. However I do think we shouldn't hammer a bandwagon until we're relatively certain we're right, especially on Day 1 when the probability of error is so high.

Alright then.

Unvote: Pyrogen

And

Now you seem to be dismissing this somewhat as a random vote:-

My early vote no lynch was really only meant to be in the spirit of a random vote.

Or do you?

I would vote randomly but that just seems unfair

I agree with your comments regarding Annachie however. He seems to be sitting on the fence a bit.

Dondero - I see what you're saying, but I think it is sort of a reach. I do see Pyrogen as back peddling a bit, but I don't feel that it was intentional. Considering it is a newbie game I wouldn't give it too much thought, but we'll see later on.

The only person who has yet to post is hitogoroshi, therefore:

Vote: hitogoroshi

xvart.

[xvart]

I went to the mall with Emily.

Um... what?

xvart.

[xvart]

the reason I didn't want tovote before the replace ment came in is that if he was a wolf, that would give him the advantage of one free days as posters usually seem more suspicious and he would have a verry good reason not to post- not playing.

There are no wolfs in this game, and if there were I have no idea what you are talking about.

The F11 setup is the current game format used in Newbie games. To prevent the development of game-breaking strategies, these Newbie Games are Semi-Open, wherein the actual game setup is randomly chosen from one of four possible setups as detailed below:

• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 5 Townies
  
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies
  
• 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies
  
• 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townies

xvart.

[xvart]

Hello everyone. Here are some thoughts of mine:

First, I have a question about an acronym.

You understand it perfectly on that EBWOP.

EBWOP: Upon reread, just me has a vote on you as well, so I guess, by your own system, we should upgrade you to "suspiscious looking," yes?

What is EBWOP?

Next, I noticed that several people have called out Annachie:

That said,

Vote Annachie

For being the only one not to disapprove of the no-lynch while mentioning it, and not having very much information in his posts. (This is based on only very circumstantial evidence, but is slightly better than a random vote in my eyes)

I agree with your comments regarding Annachie however. He seems to be sitting on the fence a bit.

With the only responses being nothing to address the suspicions and hardly related to this game:

About the most common variant of the game uses ware wolves and villagers inplace of mafia goons and townies.

Our timezone differences perhaps? (GMT+10 btw)

iirc, yes there is a prod after 3 days, but the weekend counts as one day not two. So the prod might not be for a day more than you think at first.

Rugby? Cricket?

No, we need information and the way to get that is via votes, and the reasoning behind the votes. Although no-voting and non-lynch voting are, in a way, information too.

Annachie, I would you like to hear what you have to say about these suspicions and also why you did not even address them in your previous posts?

Finally, I am going on vacation tomorrow for a week and I don't know at this time if my hotel will have internet connection. I assume it will have wireless, but I'm not sure if it is free of charge or not, so my access may be limited. Just in case,

Possible V/LA: 9/22 - 9/30

xvart.

[xvart]

Oops. I made a mistake in my V/LA message in the last post. I got confused because I am taking my dog to the kennel tomorrow, but I am not leaving until Wednesday, so

Possible V/LA: 9/23 - 9/30

And since hitogoroshi has posted with some observations I will go ahead and unvote since I voted only because he/she had not yet contributed.

Unvote: hitogoroshi

My suspicions at this point lie on Annachie (for reasons stated above) and Pyrogen (for being all over the map and backpeddling on almost claim he/she has made).

xvart.

[xvart]

What is EBWOP?

Edited By Way Of Post

Since we're not allowed to edit our posts, it's a way to indicate an addition or correction to your previous post.

Ah! Good to know. Thanks for that. Is there a list of acronyms somewhere on this site or on the wiki?

xvart.

[xvart]

A random lynch also has the chance of taking out a power role, which combined with the mafia overnight kill, gives them a good chance of taking out 1 of them, and a small chance of both.

Thank you for the response. Depending on which setup we drew we could either have zero, one, or two power roles. Of the given formats, we have a 25% chance of having no power roles, 25% of having two power roles, and 50% chance of having only one power role (of course this is if starkmoon drew randomly). The odds are more in our favor of randomly lynching a scum than a power role, should we choose to randomly lynch, which I think we are all in agreement (now) that we won't be.

xvart.

[xvart]

How about we start a bandwagon on me? Plenty of posts to go through and post what they think of my actions. Plenty of suspicion on me too.

This will also help me in my future play, in both cases of my being scum or town.

I reserve the right to defend myself though.

So:

Unvote: Randal

Vote: Pyrogen

I don't know how much I trust people who votes for themselves for no apparent reason. It seems rather erratic, given no prompting. Can you explain to me how, if you are protown, voting for yourself and sacrificing yourself will help the town? Will us seeing your role help us? I doubt it at this juncture because we haven't even had any night actions.

This will also help me in my future play, in both cases of my being scum or town.

You've also now claimed, unsolicited, that this move will help you if you are, in fact, scum.

I think you've taken the lead on my suspicion list; but I'm not ready to revote for you... yet.

xvart.

[xvart]

Curious how you've left out the fact that I unvoted myself in that very post. Pragmatically, I did nothing but unvote. I am in no way "sacrificing" myself.

It isn't really curious at all; had you left the vote on there I most surely would have immediately cast my vote for you, for the reason I listed; however, I did not. Additionally, my other point still stands about erratic behavior, regardless of if you vote/unvoted yourself in the same post or not.

xvart.

[xvart]

EBWOP:

Also, as far as the idea of "helping your future play;" while that is all well and good, you need to play *this* game to

win

, not use it as a stepping stone in future endeavors. The rest of us are here to play *this* game, and I, for one, would prefer that you play to the utmost of your abilities, whether as town or scum.

I read the post a different way and I was thinking Pyro was referring to this game and that move would help him as either scum or town in

this game

; not future games. Could you clarify which you meant?

xvart.

[xvart]

Both reasons are why I've made this gambit. Posting more means more data to analysis (and find scum). Analysis of my play means I will improve for later games.

Gotcha. In that case, I retract my statement.

Xvart: I had a question before. Did you think my "system" as everyone calls it, meant that higher votes means more scummieness, as Randal suggested? I've answered your questions, please answer mine.

Of course (and I appreciate your answers). Although not initially explained very well, I understand what you are saying. While I don't necessarily subscribe to your system, I get that it could be a moderately decent barometer to judge (individually) others; however, I don't think it is effective for everyone, especially this early in the game because everyone is still getting a feeling for others and people voting to draw attention to someone.

For example, my vote for Annachie was not (necessarily) because I thought Annachie was scummy, but rather because Annachie had not yet posted; and once Anna posted, I removed my vote. So in that sense, your "system" was inaccurate and not effective.

xvart.

[xvart]

Other than Just Me and Dondero, I would have to look at Pyro and DarthRandal and Xvart purely because they lead the 'unvote' count. (I got told that vote hopping is a sign of scum, and my massive 1 game experience seems to back this up)
If I shifted away from Just Me, at the moment it would be onto Pyro

That's five people; more than half the town as possible scum! And regardless, I believe I only unvoted twice, both of which I explained adequately. If I need explain it again I would be happy to do so.

xvart.

[xvart]

Pyrogen - if you are not, in fact, mafia, you need to get it under control because you are sucking attention away from actual scum hunting. I think the problem is your action that everyone is calling you out on appear one way to most of us, then you describe it after the fact as planning ahead (and it feels contradictory in same sense), which might be possible but you might just be having a difficult time explaining that; or, you are just trying to save face and protect yourself.

I suggest clearing that up quickly and effectively and then also turn the finger back on those who are keeping these discussions alive and kicking (other than yourself). If you are protown, then it seems that scum might be trying to add fuel to the fire or are trying to get you to appear more scummy; so with that said, and to generate some more discussion, which of those that keep hammering on you do you feel might be the mafia, and why? (and yes, I know you have done this to a small degree, but not enough for me to start looking elsewhere).

That's why I'm voting Anna, and why I will

FOS JustMe

for not mentioning the no-lynch discussion in his first two votes (perhaps waiting to see if other town will go for no-lynch) and then nominating me as supicious for the no-lynch only after everyone vehemetly opposed it.

Are you suggesting that Anna bandwagoned the conversation about the no lynch after seeing how the rest of the town fell? I can see this, and will keep this in consideration.

The point is, and someone already said it, you may not be scum, but you certainly are not protown in my eyes at the moment. You are either scum or you are town with antitown behavior; neither of which I can stand for.

Vote: Pyrogen

I have a feeling that my first reaction was correct; but I will remove my vote from you again if you can point me in better direction.

On another note, does anyone else find Dondero's response here a little odd, or perhaps too defensive. Although humorous, I just feel a little unsettled by this post:

Now, in other news….

@Annachie – If I’m cahoots with justme then we have to be the most inept pair of scum this site’s ever seen. I merely raise a couple of queries regarding Pyro’s motives for no-lynch, the vote on him drops from one to zero, and then….justme strikes? Yep, we’re the Laurel and Hardy of mafiascum alright!
And all of that in response to your getting called out for posting a lot yet saying not much.

xvart.

[xvart]

This has been a hellish week, and I'm falling behind in all my games. I apologize, and I'll be in full from shortly. I'm caught up on reading (I know I know, active lurking) but haven't had the time to focus in on responding. That's soon to change, and again, I apologize.

Looking forward to hearing from you. I am especially curious why you dodged my first question to you in my first post:

Hello everyone. Let's get hunting! Startrasmission - is that Tim Allen or Joel Osteen in your avatar?

xvart.

Just kidding, of course.

xvart.

[xvart]

Wait... what? You tell him to calm down because he's distracting from scumhunting, even giving him excuses for that and then voting him in the next paragraph?

Because he is either A.) mafia; or B.) anti-town; and like I said, both of which I won't stand for. You'll notice that I clearly stated that I would remove the vote once he was able to overcome this, as I do not necessarily think he is mafia, but he is behaving in a way that if kept around could become increasingly detrimental to the town.

Essentially, what I said was:
Pyro - this is my problem with you.
This is why I perceive it as a problem.
A few reasons how I think this might (possibly) be an error.
This is why it is problematic for the town.
This is what I will do if you don't clear this up (vote).
And this is what I will do once those problems are cleared (unvote).

fhqwhgads - I thought what I said was pretty clear earlier, so I ask you: are you intentionally twisting my words and quoting out of context?

xvart.

[xvart]

I'd like to see more talking by Dondero and xvart.

Aloha from Hawai'i! We do have internet connection at the cost of $13/day (yikes!) and I've signed on every day so far, but between the sun and all the Mai Tai's I haven't felt comfortable posting anything (I've read too many games where someone says "well I was drunk!"

I hope to post something tonight with all the new analysis or maybe tomorrow.

xvart.

[xvart]

Good evening. I had some Sake at dinner (as well as possibly the best steak of my life), so I apologize for any grammar mistakes that I might miss (grammar errors drive me nuts!).

I'd like to see more talking by Dondero and xvart.

Okay...

just me -

Not a fan of this comment right off the bat, saying we shouldn't vote until two days after the final confirmation;

day one is allways a bit of a gamble (taking from experiance in related previous games) but I think if we at leas wait at least 2 days after final player cnfirmation, it should let us get a bit of an idea of who we are dealing with and allow us to make a less random decision. for this to work effectively there needs to be as many talking players as possible, so, please post!
let's have a good one.

Then goes on about waiting to vote and throw accusations around. My honest opinion? Justme is waiting for a bandwagon or a somewhat majority opinion to jump into so as not to push anyone's buttons. I'm not sure if I'm digging the doesn't really want to comment but wants everyone else to post. Not sure if it is a scum read or not, but somewhat suspicious in my opinion. Might be worth pursuing. Justme - do you have anything to comment about that?

DarthRandal1138

- some solid posting and solid content. Not that scum can't post quality, but I feel safe with DarthRandal as town right now.

Dondero

- lack of posting is my biggest concern right now, especially in light of the whole justme/dondero accusations of being scumbuddies.

I agree with hitogoroshi that looking for scum pairs is misleading this early in the game. Scum will probably avoid each other this early in the game, so we're much more likely to find someone acting scummy in isolation.

I also agree. It might just be smoke and mirrors at this point. I said something about Dondero's one comment that made me uncomfortable, but Dondero has not said anything since. I look forward to hearing this one explained. Not sure I would point directly to scum since the post was so flagrant (with a little humor) at this point, but we shall see after an explanation.

Annachie

- not enough content in post. Has posted a lot, but not enough substance. Seems to be a ridiculous banter of non-committal jargon with hitogorshi regarding scum pairs.

Pyrogen

- I think I've posted enough of my feelings on Pyro so far. The fact that he has settled down is calming, although the rest of the town seems to have also settled down. However, even with some "coaching," I find it hard to believe that Pyro can't even fabricate some possible scum trying to set him up; considering the circumstances of everyone pointing fingers at him. I would think he could at least point the finger back at one person. I just find this very unnerving:

I suggest clearing that up quickly and effectively and then also turn the finger back on those who are keeping these discussions alive and kicking (other than yourself). If you are protown, then it seems that scum might be trying to add fuel to the fire or are trying to get you to appear more scummy; so with that said, and to generate some more discussion, which of those that keep hammering on you do you feel might be the mafia, and why? (and yes, I know you have done this to a small degree, but not enough for me to start looking elsewhere).

I don't know. Most people seem town enough.

Seriously? Everyone who is out to get you lynched is "town enough?" With that kind of interrogative attitude, I do not feel bad not removing my lynch vote on you.

hitogoroshi

- Of little content, the only thing I can make a judgment on is this comment:

Given that I think that Just Me managed to

out both himself and Dondero

I find it funny that Dondero described him and Just Me as Laurel and Hardy.

See, it's this again. If you think that what transpired clearly "outed" Dondero and Justme as a scumpair, well, uh, you're completely wrong. Please see/respond to my last post.

If it is that obvious what exactly everyone is referring to (or incorrectly referring to) then go ahead and point it out directly to those of us less dense. Telling people to reread a previous post when you could just be more clear would be helpful. Either you are intentionally being vague and don't want your comment scrutinized more, or you are trying to make it more difficult; either of which is anti-town in my eyes.

startransmission

- not enough posting, outside of the partial list analysis, most of which was fairly obvious commentary about Pyrogen. Hope to get the rest of the list soon.

fhqwhgads

- good posting for the most part. Nothing stands out as being anti-town behavior. Feeling town at this point.

To be clear at this point, the scummiest people in my eyes are the erratic backtrackers, complicated story tellers, and the no posters/no content posters. So at this point, I'm quite comfortable keeping my vote on Pyrogen for the reasons outlined above, with a solid FoS on Dondero, Annachie, and hitogoroshi. I'm trying to figure out if we lynch Pyro and he turns up town, who I would gun for next; but I am also waiting for some direction from Pyro on that.

xvart.

[xvart]

xvart, if that didn't clarify my position, I'd be happy to go into any parts in more depth.

Thank you, that helps me follow along a lot.

yes, I have something to say. the reason for that, maybe controversial post xvart has just pulled up again is this: I thought that if we voted before everyone was in, it would keep somebody (possibly, though not necessarily a wolf) out of the limelight than what would be good for the 'village' as a whole. and, I thought if we didn't jump into things straight away, we could get some justified opinions and have a slightly higher chance of getting a mafia member.

If the games started with a night phase I could see your point, since anyone late on the night phase could be mafia or power town role and have a night action. But since there was no night phase to begin with I think it is moot, which I think is what you are saying. Even so, given that a late comer is mafia, we might as well scum hunt the other one in the meantime, right?

The reason I didn't pick anyone out was because I have several exams and papers due this week, and I didn't feel like accusing anyone without evidence. After my tests I will go reread the thread and see who seems out of place. Of course I have my suspicions, but I won't reveal them yet.

Hmmmm... I guess this will have to suffice for now?

xvart.

[xvart]

Yeah I think it is time for an official prod on Dondero, if it hasn't happened already. If we don't get a response by the weekend I would feel comfortable switching my vote since this absence, in light of everything that has occurred, is getting suspicious. As I've said, inactivity this early in the game is totally anti-town.

xvart.

[xvart]

While that's certainly true, xvart, I'd like to add an important caveat - it is incredibly important not to babble. Activity in the beginning of the game is pro-town, but talking for the sake of talking only helps scum.

Of course, this also makes it a bit of a nasty cycle because if no one is posting content no one can comment on it. :/

Of course; I agree. Content > babble > nothing.

xvart.

[xvart]

If we are going to play the probability game, I should point out to you that the probability of the last member to join being mafia is 1/9. Very good odds he might be town, meaning that if he was late the chances would be BETTER to find the two mafia in the remaining eight.

True, but from a different perspective, Dondero (or whoever it turns out to be) has the exact same odds of being mafia as any of us do (by random assignment): 1/9.

Dondero will be replaced, he has not picked up the prod sent on Monday.

Now I think it is safe to assume one of two things:

• Dondero was mafia, blew his cover, and just quit;
  Dondero simply didn't have the time to continue; or,
  Dondero didn't have the desire to continue.

I wish we could get an answer to the two statements, because this now puts at a unique position since the replacement will have a totally different response to all the questions about the Laurell and Hardy comment. I'm pretty undecided on him being mafia or not, as I tend to believe that it was just an exasperated comment as a joke. I find it hard to believe that someone would say something like that this early in the game. I was going to form a stronger opinion based on his response.

ebwop:
... and improves my arguement against random lynching lol

I have a tough time reading this, especially with the "lol" at the end; but I don't like the fact that the logic basically reads as:
1. You made an argument; 2. Then, someone else said something; 3. That something strengthened your original argument; 4. Therefore, your original argument is more valid.

Do you get what I'm saying? Maybe there are discussions on logical arguments like this on the forums, or perhaps the SEs or IC can chime in if I am incorrect in reading it that way.

xvart.

[xvart]

I just noticed that my second post never came through right after my previous post. My laptop battery died after I clicked submit, and I thought it went through; so here is essentially what I asked earlier:

]The reason I didn't pick anyone out was because I have several exams and papers due this week, and I didn't feel like accusing anyone without evidence. After my tests I will go reread the thread and see who seems out of place. Of course I have my suspicions, but I won't reveal them yet.

No one really seems THAT scummy, but here is my list after a reread, based mostly on gut feelings:

So your suspicions are really only based on gut feelings?

lol, forgot to include the number of power roles in my thinking. Kinda assumed 2 to match the 2 scum.

Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?

I have a question right back to you about this: How does a roleblocker have anything to do with it? There is a guaranteed two mafia in this game, and not necessarily a roleblocker. Annachie never mentioned anything about the mafia role assignment differences. Do you know there is a mafia roleblocker? And if so, how might that be, I wonder?

xvart.

[xvart]

Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?

I have a question right back to you about this: How does a roleblocker have anything to do with it? There is a guaranteed two mafia in this game, and not necessarily a roleblocker. Annachie never mentioned anything about the mafia role assignment differences. Do you know there is a mafia roleblocker? And if so, how might that be, I wonder?

xvart.

I bet he did something similar to me, and read the first of the four setup options and kinda read over the latter ones. (Option one has a roleblocker and 2 power roles, option 2 has a roleblocker and no power roles)

Why are you answering for him? Especially since he was originally accusing you of being scum?

I wonder how long it will take to get a replacement in, and how much we should read into it?

We should read nothing into the duration of replacement.

I wonder how long it will take to get a replacement in, and how much we should read into it? If Dondero was indeed a mafia, would someone take up the spot given that until recently Don was on 3 votes? Hell, if Don was not actually a scum would a replacement take the spot given the voting?

I would propose then that the longer it takes to get a replacement for Don, the more that xvart's first option is the correct one.
But one thing is certain. That replacements first post will be an important one.

Anyone considering replacing in will not know what the role assignment is. It is possible that people might elect to not join in based on the situation, but I'm pretty sure that might not be as bad as you think, considering the accusations of Dondero were enough to be suspicious, but not enough for a lynch (at least in my opinion); I think the opinion expressed by a number of us is that we were waiting on an explanation before coming to a solid conclusion. I think anyone that joins in might say it was simple newbie sarcasm and we would all be forced to believe it.

Although I am suspicious of Dondero (and by virtue of affiliation, the replacement, too), I am more suspicious of the people voting for him; and you fall into that category.

FoS: Annachie

xvart.

[xvart]

Annachie? Any comments or clarification about the roleblocker/power role comments?

Pyrogen? Any comments or clarification about the roleblocker/power role comments?

xvart.

[xvart]

What are you talking about? My comment on Anna?

No, my question to you:

lol, forgot to include the number of power roles in my thinking. Kinda assumed 2 to match the 2 scum.

Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?

I have a question right back to you about this: How does a roleblocker have anything to do with it? There is a guaranteed two mafia in this game, and not necessarily a roleblocker. Annachie never mentioned anything about the mafia role assignment differences. Do you know there is a mafia roleblocker? And if so, how might that be, I wonder?

xvart.

xvart.

[xvart]

Annachie assumed only the possibility of two power roles. The only way there would be two power roles is if there was a roleblocker..

Untrue.

The F11 setup is the current game format used in Newbie games. To prevent the development of game-breaking strategies, these Newbie Games are Semi-Open, wherein the actual game setup is randomly chosen from one of four possible setups as detailed below:

• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 5 Townies
  
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies
  
  
• 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies
  
• 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townies

If either of the first two setups are in play, and the situation occurs where the Goon is lynched first, the Roleblocker will still be able to submit both night kills and roleblocks (roleblocking is a function of the Roleblocker; night kills are a function of the scum team as a whole).

xvart.

[xvart]

Sorry I've been quiet for a few days everyone. Lets get back on this and lynch some scum.

My statement is still true. The only way for there to be two roles is if there was a roleblocker. See if you can work that out.

Obviously if there was a roleblocker, the case that there are no power roles would be optimum for her, which perhaps is why she worked with the assumption of the top case. I'lll freely admit I'm streching here, and this may amount to little or nothing. But at least I'm searching, unlike nearly everybody else who have seemingly taken a vow of silence.

I'm following you now. I'm sorry for the misunderstanding. It was not clear to me at the time that you were referencing the situation in that light. It truly appeared like the role blocker comment came out of nowhere.

Aye, just ask the wife and 10 kids.

So by now Justme must be in prod mode (12 days?), Startransmission must have had a couple by now (3 posts this month?). Who am I missing?

At this point,
DarthRandal at 11 days or so?.

Yes. Although slightly guilty myself the past week, I'm not thrilled about everyone who has been quiet.

At this point, while I'm still voting for Pyro, I believe I will probably unvote him because it doesn't seem like the right vote to me anymore. Should I choose to do that, top contenders are Annachie followed by Justme, Startransmission, and DarthRandal (all three for blatant and excessive inactivity).

I will reread and then post about removing/changing my vote.

xvart.

[xvart]

HackerHuck replaces Dondero

Welcome, HackerHuck. I'm looking forward to hearing your thoughts. Hopefully then the conversation will resume.

xvart.

[xvart]

Ok, sorry I've been quiet... again. We have a week left, and I'll be much more active.

My vote sticks. I've been swamped the last couple of days, but in the next few hours I hope to address some things that have come up.

Oh really?

Activity really needs to pick up, and if it doesn't, I'm still happy with my vote as well.

Are you still happy with your vote if it leads to a no-lynch?

Alright, we only have, what, 3 days? I don't think we'll get anybody.

That's a pretty defeatist attitude, or is it a self-fulfilling prophecy? All I can say is if we don't get a lynch I'll be looking at all you people not voting and not contributing; and you all will have a lot of explaining to do.

He's cautious and barely scumhunting at all (besides me and Annachie), instead addressing only minor issues. This is my reason for the vote.

I can't really tell what you are saying with your first sentence, but I assume it is saying that you and Annachie are the only ones scumhunting; which I don't necessarily agree with. In fact, I hardly consider what Annachie has been doing the last few days as scumhunting; in fact, you yourself said it in your analysis:

annachie - posts lack content, evades accusation

What has changed since then? These posts?

Firstly, what accusations?

Secondly, what content is needed? I think I have two people pegged as mafia scum, have laid out my reasoning, and am yet to see anything to change my mind. So really I'm in reading/avoid prodding mode.

Thirdly, well since the first option of the four possible for the game set-up have two power roles it's an easy enough mistake to make to assume two power roles in my reasoning.

Here, directly in response to you saying his posts lack content, he self proclaims that he has already done his scumhunting, is satisfied with his observations. Additionally, he also notes that he is only reading/avoiding prodding.

Why assume two power roles? You know there's a roleblocker, huh, and then noticed you screwed up?

I have a question right back to you about this: How does a roleblocker have anything to do with it? There is a guaranteed two mafia in this game, and not necessarily a roleblocker. Annachie never mentioned anything about the mafia role assignment differences. Do you know there is a mafia roleblocker? And if so, how might that be, I wonder?

xvart.

I bet he did something similar to me, and read the first of the four setup options and kinda read over the latter ones. (Option one has a roleblocker and 2 power roles, option 2 has a roleblocker and no power roles)

I wonder how long it will take to get a replacement in, and how much we should read into it? If Dondero was indeed a mafia, would someone take up the spot given that until recently Don was on 3 votes? Hell, if Don was not actually a scum would a replacement take the spot given the voting?

Now I think it is safe to assume one of two things:

Dondero was mafia, blew his cover, and just quit;
Dondero simply didn't have the time to continue; or,
Dondero didn't have the desire to continue.

or that he figgured that he was going to be lynched reguardless and just quit.

I would propose then that the longer it takes to get a replacement for Don, the more that xvart's first option is the correct one.
But one thing is certain. That replacements first post will be an important one.

fhqwgads: I'm not saying nothing has changed. But not changed enough to change my mind about Dondero.

I'm not quite following you here.

Basically I read the first option and assumed the two power roles in the game for all options. I didn't read it properly.

Anna ... since (s)he

Sorry, just noticed this. He. Took the name from a Loreena McKennitt song 14 years ago or so.

Here he defends you, Pyro, and then talks about illogically judging the replacement based on the time it took to replace Dondero. (note: I fixed the quotes above from the original post, otherwise the quotes remain accurate).

Nah, not really.

I stand by my logic on that xvart, even if I did mis-read the game-setup info.

I'm more thinking about the targeted lynch, random lynch, no lynch thing at the moment. With the first night only a few hours away I'm trying to decide how confident people are about their votes and how confident I am about mine.
Or to put it another way, assuming that we get to the required 5 votes, if that lynching would be a targeted or random one.
An assumption that I make/have made is that a random lynching isn't that random as the scum have influenced it.


Then again, being down to 8 at the moment, would we get to the needed 5.



I'm aso thinking about the various comments about giving a replacement a chance to state their own case.

No scumhunting here, that I perceive.

Actually, would the 21 day count have started when the PM's were sent on the 16th, or when Starkmoon unlocked this thread for us on the 19th? (GMT +10 of course, my local time at the time)

No scumhunting here, that I perceive.

Anna ... since (s)he

Sorry, just noticed this.

He

. Took the name from a Loreena McKennitt song 14 years ago or so.

ROFL

You basically accuse me of lieing about misreading a post, then misread a post yourself. Sheesh. (Colour added for emphasis)

No scumhunting here, that I perceive.

Aye, just ask the wife and 10 kids.

So by now Justme must be in prod mode (12 days?), Startransmission must have had a couple by now (3 posts this month?). Who am I missing?

DarthRandal at 11 days or so?.

Observations about people not posting, which could be considered mildly scumhunting.

Do you still think Annachie is scumhunting?

Pyrogen, you said:

The only way there would be two power roles is if there was a roleblocker.

Let me repeat that again: The only way there would be two power roles is if there was a roleblocker.

2 Power roles (if and only if) roleblocker.

Therefore if there is a roleblocker, there MUST be two power roles.

The above statement is wrong. (I'm not leaping to call it a lie though.)

Not that I particularly want to get drawn into symbolic logic, but here we go anyway.

There are two statements:
There are two power roles; and, There is a roleblocker.

There are also two logical statements:
IF ... THEN; and, IF AND ONLY IF ... THEN.

So...

IF "there are two power roles" (A) THEN "there is a roleblocker" (B).

The validity of the statement works out this way:

A / B / TF?

T / T / T T / F / T F / T / T F / F / F

So any statement about roleblockers and power roles is always valid (even if one of the statements is false)

unless

they both are false (meaning there are not two power roles and there is no roleblocker). So Pyro, your logic is invalid under that construct, which you suggest.

IF AND ONLY IF "there are two power roles" (A) THEN "there is a roleblocker" (B).

The validity of the statement works out this way:

A / B / TF?

T / T / T T / F / F F / T / F F / F / T

So, any statement about roleblockers and power roles is only valid if both statements are true or false. So fhqwhgads, your logic is valid.

I know the IF ... THEN statement looks pretty bizarre and counter-intuitive, but it is true. Because of this, I can't fault Pyrogen for not knowing that since most people would have the same conclusion. http://faculty.uscupstate.edu/mulmer/A% ... ontrap.pdf.

I took a course in college called symbolic logic, and I loved it; it is nice to have some real life application!

Pyro - I understand a lot of what he's saying, but I get the feeling that he's being deliberately difficult.

Do you think that being "deliberately difficult" is pro-town behavior?

At this point in the game, each one of you needs to have at least one person you find scummy and another person that you would be willing to lynch to avoid a no-lynch.

In summary, I think there is an interesting relationship between Pyrogen and Annachie, and would be satisfied lynching either one. If we do not end up lynching either one, I hope that we investigate them further because I suspect at least one of them is mafia.

I am also not satisfied with startransmission (as quoted above) and despite his first contribution analysis, at this point, would feel justified in his lynch.

In all honesty, I would be happy lynching anyone this first day, but I think we will gain the most information from lynching either Pyrogen or Annachie.

xvart.

[xvart]

EBWOP

I am also not satisfied with startransmission (as quoted above) and despite his first contribution analysis, at this point, would feel justified in his lynch.

I forgot to include Justme in there, and his obvious disappearing act puts him in this category.

My list of voting priority (at this time) from highest to lowest is:
Pyrogen and Annachie (tied);
startransmission and Justme (tied).

Lastly - it's been a while since I've played here, but I'm surprised that there are a couple of abbreviations that I'm not familiar with. What is RVS and what is ATE?

RVS = random voting stage

ATE = appeal to emotion

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... reviations

xvart.

[xvart]

Are you still happy with your vote if it leads to a no-lynch?

Not a simple answer. I'd still want to keep this vote, but I am willing to change it to prevent a no-lynch.

Thanks. That's all I wanted to know.

I took a course in college called symbolic logic, and I loved it; it is nice to have some real life application!

Nicely done. I have to admit, my irks with the statement was more out of principle rather than finding the statement itself scummy.

lol. I am the same way. I thought as much (about the principle) and felt the same way. Honestly, it had been a while since I had created any truth tables and had to double check them.

In all honesty, I would be happy lynching anyone this first day, ...

I've stated before that I think that random lynching is the tool of the scum, and this sounds like a call for a random lynch.

Are we seriously going to go over this again? Wasn't this settled on page two? Tell me the benefits and what extra knowledge you will have by not knowing anyone's alignment tomorrow? We will be in the exact same position other than a night kill, and we will have knowledge about who might want that person dead (but we would have that anyway). AND, we are hardly at a place where it is a random lynch. There is a huge difference between random lynching a town, and incorrectly lynching a town.

Let me be clear: no lynch is anti-town. Period.

Now I think it is safe to assume one of two things:

Dondero was mafia, blew his cover, and just quit;
Dondero simply didn't have the time to continue; or,
Dondero didn't have the desire to continue.

I'm not the only one to think that Dondero quit because he thought his cover was blown.

and now it looks like JustMe has gone as well.

Personally I would like to see the Justme/Dondero situation resolved, which means a lynching of one of them.

In deference to HackerHuck and his willingness to take a replacement spot and taking into account Justme's absence

Again, wasn't this cleared up already? I'm just as disappointed as anyone about the Dondero replacement at that time, but people replace out for any number of reasons, all the time. Just scan other games and you'll see that this game is not unique because of our replacements.

You seem to keep talking in circles and bringing up things that were debates after they were settled for the sake of debating (or appearing helpful).

Vote Justme

And now you vote for the only one with no votes, so close to the deadline? You seem dead set on a no lynch.

Annachie - based on this post you have just moved up in my scum book; and I am halfway tempted to try and swing the lynch vote to you since you want to not lynch anyone; but I don't know if we have the time.

Is there a particular reason you don't want Pyrogen lynched (since he is leading)? What are your justifications for believing that Pyrogen is town. Can you agree that he has acted scummy?

xvart.

[xvart]

In all honesty, I would be happy lynching anyone this first day, ...

I've stated before that I think that random lynching is the tool of the scum, and this sounds like a call for a random lynch.

Are we seriously going to go over this again? Wasn't this settled on page two? Tell me the benefits and what extra knowledge you will have by not knowing anyone's alignment tomorrow? We will be in the exact same position other than a night kill, and we will have knowledge about who might want that person dead (but we would have that anyway). AND, we are hardly at a place where it is a random lynch. There is a huge difference between random lynching a town, and incorrectly lynching a town.

Let me be clear: no lynch is anti-town. Period.

EBWOP: I just reread the quoted statement and I realized I initially misread it; I read "no lynch" and not "random lynch;" so I apologize for that little outburst.

However, as I did say, we are hardly in a random vote stage of the game, and my questions to you are still legitimate.

xvart.

[xvart]

Hmm, if voting No-Lynch is always anti-town, then why is it even in the game?

My bad, I should have said voting no lynch

on day one

is anti-town, which I did say in one of my first few posts.

As I have said, I'd prefer the Dondero/Justme situation resolved. For most of the time Pyro has had just one or two votes. (And one of them was by Justme)

I agree with this. Depending on what happens overnight I would be happy to pursue this; however, depending on how Pyrogen flips, we might have an obvious next target.

unvote justme, vote Pyrogen

I believe that's L-1. Time to claim Pyrogen?

xvart.

[xvart]

Since I may lose the ability to post at any time

You can't post after you've reached the required lynch number? Or once the mod shuts the day down?

Meh. If I die, its no great loss. I think I've helped town pretty well, by providing material for the future.

So no claim?

xvart.

[xvart]

unless Pyro claimed a town PR.

Of course there would be no way to prove if he was a power role since there had been no night actions, unless someone counter claimed, but then again, we wouldn't be able to prove either way; and, one of them would be scum so we could just lynch them both.

I have very scummy-seeming town play--it's something I am really trying to work on. Anyway, hi to all, and I should have some posts with content soon.

Um... okay? So when you act like scum we shouldn't think you are scum? It's just normal town play? How about if you act town? Does that mean you are scum? Seems a little strange that you are setting yourself up to behave anyway you wish only to tell us later, when you get questioned on your actions, that you already told us that you behave like scum.

Kill-kill, link us to a game where you were town, please.

Anna, attacking your attacker is hardly helpful. As a matter of fact, he did NOT vote for you; he merely posted a single critical paragraph regarding your actions. Regardless of your alignment, your response here was paranoid and extremely anti-town. Especially this line:

What is this, you're going to vote for me before I log in and press you on anything?

Beyond the fact that paranoia (here, the fact that you assumed he cast a vote) is, in my books, a scum tell, this is a messed up values system. Your statement here could be translated as: "You're going to vote me before I can attack you?" Scum defend themselves by attacking their attackers, because they don't care who gets lynched. It's not an activity townies should engage in.

I agree with everything in this post.

A minor ping on the scumdar goes out to xvart--his end of the day play seemed to be pretty much cheerleading the lynch.

Please show me where I was cheerleading the lynch? Maybe I don't understand the term "cheerleading" in the context of a mafia game.

What about xvart? He was the first vote on this wagon. Does that make his "cheerleading" less scummy? It's interesting to note that he had a relatively soft reason for voting Pyrogen - "...You are either scum or you are town with antitown behavior; neither of which I can stand for." That vote was also there for a long time.

I feel that my justification for wanting to lynch Pyrogen. Even though he wasn't scum I am glad he is gone because he was a huge distraction, throwing scum behavior all over the place, allowing the mafia to just hide in the background and poke and prod here and there. And, I hardly believe that lynching someone who is either scum or anti-town is a "soft" reason.

Even Pyrogen didn't think I was behaving scummy after coming after him, since he thought I was the least suspicious and never altered his opinion of me:

From least suspicious to most:

xvart: Town, most likely

xvart.

[xvart]

Though looking back, what changed from

At this point, while I'm still voting for Pyro, I believe I will probably unvote him because it doesn't seem like the right vote to me anymore.

Post 195

To

In summary, I think there is an interesting relationship between Pyrogen and Annachie, and would be satisfied lynching either one. If we do not end up lynching either one, I hope that we investigate them further because I suspect at least one of them is mafia.

Post 205

Nothing changed, really; I was suspicious of both of them in the first post (and before) and the same was true in the last post. The reason I never unvoted Pyrogen was basically because of this post:

Alright, we only have, what, 3 days? I don't think we'll get anybody.

I'm going with my gut and voting for the IC.

/vote fhqwhgads

He's cautious and barely scumhunting at all (besides me and Annachie), instead addressing only minor issues. This is my reason for the vote.

Comments?

That post, as others also pointed out, had scumy-ness written all over it. After that, I don't think I would've changed my vote unless we were looking at a no lynch.

Maybe I did get a little tunnel visioned on Pyrogen, but I found it difficult to focus anywhere else, with the so called "scumdar" going off every post.

startransmission

- what do you think of the fhqwhgads NK?

Annachie

- who do you think is connected to Pyrogen, and do you think mafia were on the bandwagon?

DarthRandall

- What do you think about KillKill's "all scum all the time" play style?

xvart.

[xvart]

But, would you rather I say it when I first come in, or when I am pressured? Which of the two would be more pro-town?

The one where you act town when you are town and the one where you act scummy when you are scum. But seriously, I know what you are talking about with the hyper analytical style of play. The other forum I played at is much more off the cuff and laid back.

xvart.

[xvart]

Argh, I'm debating on where to put my vote. I have issues with Annachie (most of which have been pointed out), but after a reread I'm not too sure.

Besides Annachie, whom are you debating placing the vote on? And, as I've said several times, I am suspicious of Annachie; so would you care to enlighten me/us on why you are not sure?

xvart.

[xvart]

Jeez fhqwhgads gets mafia ganked, the guy who had voted for me, and then you launch a vote on me right away, AFTER saying that your normal play seems scummy.

What is this, you're going to vote for me before I log in and press you on anything?

vote kill-kill

I personally wouldn't really have a problem with such a quick vote, but the reasoning and justification does not sit well with me since it is based on nothing at all except timestamps and lack of conversation right out of the gate. Highly suspicious.

Argh, I'm debating on where to put my vote. I have issues with Annachie (most of which have been pointed out), but after a reread I'm not too sure.

Besides Annachie, whom are you debating placing the vote on? And, as I've said several times, I am suspicious of Annachie; so would you care to enlighten me/us on why you are not sure?

xvart.

I'm still anxious to hear this response. I'm leaning toward Annachie for my vote, but maybe I've missed something so before I place my vote I want to hear what you have to say.

xvart.

[xvart]

xvart is starting to trip my scumdar too. He starts off the game pretty strong, but recently has begun to try and lead things a bit while staying behind the scenes. I'm also not sure how I missed the whole roleblocker discussion early on. There seemed to be way too much discussion about it.

I will not deny what you are saying in the sense that I do feel somewhat responsible for the Pyrogen lynch and do not want to tunnel again (because at this point nobody is clearly acting acting anti-town like Pyrogen) and have taken a more backseat role this game day. I what others have to say about the people I suspect. I won't apologize for it, but I also don't want to get stuck in the same predicament I was in yesterday, especially if I get tunneled on someone who is just playing a bad game. I think I am totally justified in asking for someone to prove me wrong, and anyone that thinks otherwise is looking for a mislynch.

Startransmission really sticks out to me. He's playing everything too safe for my liking. Even his vote on Pyro was initially a cop-out and he somewhat contradicted himself when I asked him what all of Pyro's scummy behaviour was. His only real scumhunting was his analysis posts, which essentially claimed everyone to be town - even pyro.

As more and more time goes by without him posting I feel the same way. He seems to really be only posting to avoid the prod; and even then he is only posting little sniglets of information that give the appearance of scum hunting with no real content, which is exactly why I'm pressing him for more information. He's a hairs breath from receiving my vote.

I personally wouldn't really have a problem with such a quick vote, but the reasoning and justification does not sit well with me since it is based on nothing at all except timestamps and lack of conversation right out of the gate. Highly suspicious.

Huh.

kill-kill == Just Me

and I've been sus on Just Me since the first page. The person targeted by the mafia, and Kill-kill's day 2 posting does nothing to make me doubt my original suspicions, hence ...

Yes, I remember; but I was just pointing out that you seemed to only based your current vote on the reasons listed in your first post of the day. You made no mention of anything in the previous day. That was what I was pointing out. And, I think I've said before that I would be happy to explore this relationship, but you have to convince me, and just saying "because I wanted it yesterday should be sufficient enough." Obviously it is not, otherwise we all would have followed immediately after your vote.

If startransmission finally posts his reasoning's for you being less suspicious and it makes sense to me, I would consider voting for kill-kill along with you, but I would want to reread his posts first before committing (the thing that sticks out the most is the admission that he plays scummy; but I would also like to see if that trend holds up or not).

I would also like to hear what the IC and SE have to say about Annachie's reasoning based on the replacement stuff, from a learning experience perspective because I have a hard time holding kill-kill and hackerhuck to the same standard as the previous players. How do you guys typically handle these situations?

xvart.

[xvart]

I'll be posting either later tonight or tomorrow; I've been swamped at work.

xvart.

[xvart]

I would also like to hear what the IC and SE have to say about Annachie's reasoning based on the replacement stuff, from a learning experience perspective because I have a hard time holding kill-kill and hackerhuck to the same standard as the previous players. How do you guys typically handle these situations?

Dondero did basicially nothing before being replaced, so I don't think there's anything that Hackerhuck COULD be held responsible for. As for justme, we can use his D1 actions at least to some extent, but if you want to talk about those you better use supporting quotes and be clear why it's an alignment tell and not a quirk of the old person.

Speaking of which. Annachie, please list the three scummiest things about kill-kill/justme (with the caveat from the previous paragraph).

Thanks, DarthRanda

L

. I figured as much, but thought it would be a good time to ask. I also think your question at the end to Annachie is a solid one, and I eagerly await his response.

In the meantime, any comments on why you were misrepresenting me as having the "first vote on the eventual mislynch" of Pyro?

I misread--I thought the other two had unvoted at some point. I suppose this is what you get when you read a thread late at night . I apologize, and withdraw the statement.

Way to quote snip.

Annachie is a little less scummy in my eyes

. Although he's also being quite timid in his actions and not scumhunting, I really got a good town feel from this post:

Man, there is something about this thread that seems to be preventing me from reading things correctly. My apologies.

So is this developing pattern of misinformation and out of context quoting scummy behavior or really just scum-like town posting, as you so elegantly posted in your first post?

While I may not share the same reasons as Annachie for your vote, you are creeping up on my vote list pretty quickly.

FoS: Kill-kill

Also eagerly awaiting startransmission's thoughts.

xvart.

[xvart]

startransmission

- what do you think of the fhqwhgads NK?

Not much, I don't usually dwell on NKs unless there is a good reason to. Scum often target ICs, but I do usually take a gander at who the person NKed was most involved with. In fgads case it would be Pyro, and that gives me little to work with. If it says anything I would imagine that the fact that scum went after the IC may indicate that they aren't getting alot of pressure from anybody else.

If I can ask, do people think that fhqwhgads was ganked because he was the IC?

If the reasons fhqwgads was NK'ed are only based on him being the IC, that would suggest that he was eliminated because he is experienced, so eliminating him would be good for the mafia if the mafia were a noobies. Otherwise, from my notes I only have two votes that fhqwgads placed: Annachie and Dondero (HackerHuck).

xvart.

[xvart]

This isn't game specific, but it could be a valuable learning experience. For those of you debating the topic, answer me this...
You will eventually be scum at some point in your career (if you aren't already ). So when you are scum, what would you look for when making your night kill selection?

Well based on some of the comments already, as a noobie I would probably avoid the IC for the first NK as to put them in a bad spot, since apparently the IC dies the first night a lot. Otherwise, I would probably off someone who came after me (or my scum friends) slightly during the previous day but not really anything of substance, so there couldn't be a pattern.

xvart.

[xvart]

In the meantime, any comments on why you were misrepresenting me as having the "first vote on the eventual mislynch" of Pyro?

I misread--I thought the other two had unvoted at some point. I suppose this is what you get when you read a thread late at night . I apologize, and withdraw the statement.

Way to quote snip.

Annachie is a little less scummy in my eyes

. Although he's also being quite timid in his actions and not scumhunting, I really got a good town feel from this post:

Man, there is something about this thread that seems to be preventing me from reading things correctly. My apologies.

As they say: fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. The more I think about it, the more scummy this is and deserves more than a simple FoS before I shame myself.

Vote: Kill-kill

xvart.

[xvart]

Vote: Kill-kill

xvart.

[xvart]

FYI: I just changed my avatar.

xvart.

[xvart]

Let's not get hasty here since prods just went out.

Yeah, I don't think we have to worry about anyone around here being too hasty...

xvart.

[xvart]

I'm satisfied with my vote until we hear from either Kill-kill or startransmission, preferably both, and preferably ASAP.

xvart.

[xvart]

After some consideration,

Vote: Kill-Kill

Well I know who I'm voting for tomorrow.

xvart.

[xvart]

Why is my vote a problem? My reasons only echo those already brought up. Just because I provided the hammer doesn't mean anything.

Because you have been absent for several days, once again telling us you will give us some thoughts, answer some questions, and then you swoop in without saying anything and hammer down. I clearly agree with the hammer, since I have also voted for Kill-kill, but the way you did it and the way you have been dodging town responsibilities is so scummy.

xvart.

[xvart]

Argh, I'm debating on where to put my vote. I have issues with Annachie (most of which have been pointed out), but after a reread I'm not too sure.

What in your reread has changed your mind?

xvart.

[xvart]

Normal townsperson.

I will gladly explain my rationale in more detail when the massclaim has concluded.

Explain away.

xvart.

[xvart]

Especially given Hito's recent action, I'm going to be focusing on the three wagoners - Startransmission, xvart and Annachie. There's scum there so it's just a matter of figuring out who.

And I obviously agree, HH - with two scum I know that at least one of star, xvart, and anna have to be scum.

Woah. I'm not sure I like the fact that you two have already divided the town into two separate groups: you two and the rest of us. Especially since both of you seem to think that one of us is scum. That means that both of you must admit that one of you could possibly be scum, so you have already potentially set up a alliance with a scum member; which would play right into the hands of the mafia. If you two vote the same way (seems likely right now), and there is one scum member in the three you listed you have just lost the game for the town. Are you both so confident that the other is town? You two do seem rather buddy buddy in the opening of this day; and while that may seem bold for both of you to so obviously be pairing up together if you both were mafia; so I would lean towards the person that agreed with the first suspect list: hitogoroshi.

There was also the chance that the scum discussed the idea of claiming a town PR during night chat and that they would do so NOW. This is unlikely to work on people who've played before, so I picked one of the complete newbies for my first mass-claim choice, more or less at random.

The main reason I didn't claim myself is, as I said before, I was hoping to get scum to claim a power role. Didn't expect them to, but it would have been an nice way to blow open this day from the get-go.

Then why wouldn't you have picked the person you most likely thought was scum instead? I would think you would have picked me since I am the leading contender in your eyes. By picking the person you thought was most likely scum you would have been sure to set the trap if the mafia had discussed it beforehand, since the first person would not be able to safely claim a role for fear that the real role would also reveal himself. So, why didn't you pick me to go first if you think I am the most scummy?

I'm leaning xvart for first lynch, but not by much, and that's what today is for.

And why is that? I'm especially curious since you seemed pretty perturbed at startransmission, as we all were, for his hammer drop:

That was a very funny way to put it, Darth. Just imagine me saying the same thing except instead of being funny I'm just saying a bunch of obscenities toward startransmission.

What happened overnight that put me ahead of the pack?

FoS: hitogoroshi

How about everyone else list their suspect list, since you two already have?

From most scummy to least:

1. startransmission
   
2. hitogoroshi
   
3. HackerHuck/annachie

xvart.

[xvart]

hito - I'm just saying that it puts the town in a precarious situation as I see the division (or not necessarily a division, but the obvious agreement between you and HH) to be easily manipulated by the scum into getting a lynch in their favor, especially if there is a scum on both sides of the aisle.

All I'm saying is I'm not comfortable with you two only looking at the three of us. We've been worked by the mafia so far, so I'm not ruling out anyone. The fact that the two of you are focusing on only three people (the same three people) right out of the gate is a big concern to me.

xvart.

[xvart]

First, I don't see how it can be buddying up when I was very clear about not liking Hito's request for the massclaim. Secondly, it doesn't matter if I think he's town or scum. As

my good buddy

Hitogoroshi said, I

know

that there has to be at least one scum on the wagon. In fact, this was the same point I made at the end of Day 1 when I avoided Kill-kill, so you can be assured that I believe both scum were on the Day 1 wagon.

I didn't say you were "buddy buddy" but that you

seemed

"buddy buddy." Maybe a small difference, but when two people come straight out of the gate after a massclaim with essentially the same commentary it does raise my concern.

Lastly, I don't get what you're saying at the end of that quote. If we're buddying up, what makes him scummier than me?

The fact that he agreed with you, since you were the first to post. That's why I don't necessarily think it was some plot, and while the appearance is there, he has directly agreed with the direction you two want to pursue. If the town is to believe both of you, then both of you are automatically in the clear because you have each other for support (whether you intended it or not); and I'm not convinced one of you isn't scum and I don't feel comfortable not looking into you two. That being the case, having one scum on each side could lead to easy manipulation of the voting (I think), and the fact that hito put us in that place makes me suspicious of him.

The other part I want to think about is the final vote counts:

If HH is scum, then he has managed to not vote the lynch in both votes.
If Hito is scum, then he hammered one lynch and not voted the second.
If Xvart is scum, then he voted in both lynches, persuaded me to vote in one (Though Pyro did more of that himself). Started one and voted 2nd. Not normally scumy vote spots from what I understand.
If Star is scum, then his hammer drops him in it a little, and he was involved in both lynches.

My gut read then is HH and Hito for avoiding votes. (HH's one

final

vote was on Hito)

I don't believe that both scum could have avoided being on both lynch trains; if that is the case, I'm going to feel really bamboozled after this is over. I'm going to think more on these voting patterns, such as they are.

xvart.

[xvart]

Okay then, let me ask this then: you think HH is town? Or do you think he is least likely scum? You picked the exact same three people he did, and gave the exact same argument, so you two must be in agreement about something, even if it is unspoken or unintentional. Especially when you did not give any reason. It certainly appears that you could have just as easily picked three names out of hat for those three, or you could have just listed the three that had already been listed.

So let me play this game, too. Out of hitogoroshi, HackerHuck, and startransmission I know at least one of you is scum, for the same reason you gave. If we all make a list like that we can build a logic puzzle out of it.

xvart.

[xvart]

Is there legitimacy to the L-2 vote being a tell? I remember something similar when I was reading a wiki article a while back about cop hunting or scum hunting and vote placement, but I don't recall if it was the L-2 spot... And now I can't find it. I could see that, since a scum member wouldn't want to appear as starting the lynch, initiating the train, or in hammering.

xvart.

[xvart]

Oh, and Hito. There's a 50/50 chance that you are scum reguardless of any evidence? Not bad odds at this stage considering. (and to be honest, I think it's 2 chances in 3 that you are)

I'd rather not flip a coin on the outcome of this game. And man, ST, I really didn't see a vote coming at that moment. That's one way to generate discussion.

hito is obviously on the stand right now, but what about startransmissions vote? HackerHuck said ideally we want the scum to place the first vote. Did that just happen?

xvart.

[xvart]

Oh, and Hito. There's a 50/50 chance that you are scum reguardless of any evidence? Not bad odds at this stage considering. (and to be honest, I think it's 2 chances in 3 that you are)

I'd rather not flip a coin on the outcome of this game. And man, ST, I really didn't see a vote coming at that moment. That's one way to generate discussion.

hito is obviously on the stand right now, but what about startransmissions vote? HackerHuck said ideally we want the scum to place the first vote. Did that just happen?

xvart.

[xvart]

Argh, I'm debating on where to put my vote. I have issues with Annachie (most of which have been pointed out), but after a reread I'm not too sure.

What in your reread has changed your mind?

xvart.

Thinking more about this, I still haven't received an answer to this question, despite repeatedly asking it.

xvart.

[xvart]

Vote: hitogoroshi

Good game.

xvart.

[xvart]

Our first nightkill decision was based on the fact that most of you felt that fhqwhgads was town and really had nothing to do with the fact that he was an IC. We chose to roleblock startransmission both nights, mainly because we felt that he could be the cop. The Darth kill was meant to be additional ammo against Startransmission, but we never really got around to playing that up.

Good game everyone. The reason I initially was asking ST about his change of heart on Annachie was because I thought he might have made a softclaim of being cop, since if I was the cop I would have investigated either Annachie or HackerHuck the first night; so I was trying to see if there was something legitimate there or if it was a clean investigation. Then, I just kept pressing it because once there were no power roles it kept up that he was hiding something.

I almost put my vote on ST after he voted for Hito, but decided to wait because I didn't want anything coming back to me. I felt there was enough suspicion between the two of them I didn't need to help.

I was also worried during the opening of the last day because I had the flu pretty bad and was having a hard time focusing. It took all my energy to put together my first substantial post of that day (besides my claim) and I didn't want to say anything about the flu because I didn't want anyone saying I was preempting any potential scummy moves I might "accidentally" make.

xvart.

[xvart]

Oh - I don't care if the QT is shown. I'll let Hacker do that if he wants.

xvart.

[xvart]

Goddammit! This is the second game of 3 I'm nk'd day 1. I'm either doing something wrong or something right. I'll post my thoughts on the game later, as I'm not home now.

Congrats scum. You sure fooled me.

Nah. You just seemed the most townie to us; so I guess that's a good thing?

xvart.