Mini 472 - Cartman Mafia - Game Over

[Off the Mark]

Hmmm, one Cartman disappeared, one Cartman arrested. What does that mean? Do we have a Cartman cops mafia group and a Cartman killers mafia group perhaps? Or maybe Cartman cop acts like a vig... hey Stewie, is the arrested player eligible to come back at some point?

Random vote: Earwig

because... ewww

[Off the Mark]

I replaced Korran because he's been MIA from the site for 2 weeks now, not just in this thread. I am in 2 other games with Korran and he's been replaced in both.

As far as how/why Stewie decided? I dunno, ask Stewie.

[Off the Mark]

As far as how/why Stewie decided? I dunno, ask Stewie.

WTF? explain this.

Stewie somehow determined that Korran needed to be replaced, that's all I meant. I am not sure exactly how or why. He PM'd me because a game that Stewie and I had played together had just completed.

[Off the Mark]

unvote, vote: J-man

First page is for random voting. Oh and OMGUS!!!

[Off the Mark]

J-man seems to be trying way too hard. Is he always like this? Seems scummy.

[Off the Mark]

unvote, vote: Earwig

for placing a 3rd vote on J-man and trying to pass it off as random

[Off the Mark]

Also

FOS: SorintheSeeker

for showing emotion after the night scene, a common scum tell. He's new though, so it could just be that. But townies dying are an expected part of a game with a night start, so the emotion seems fake.

[Off the Mark]

So, was it indeed a random vote? Or did you just call it random when it was really a "for the heck of it" vote?

[Off the Mark]

However that's very shady to unvote just because it was the third vote and apologize...

unvote Estes

vote earwig

Agreed, he backed off way too fast. Seems paranoid.

[Off the Mark]

unvote:

because I don't like that Earwig is at lynch-2 already. I want to hear his response before we pressure him any more.

FOS: DeanWinchester and ZeekLTK

for being a little too eager to jump on the bandwagon. Zeek characterized Earwig's actions as "very shady" which I think is an overstatement. (I would call it a little odd, but totally understandable for a fairly new player) And Dean said "seems like a newb scum slip" which I think is jumping to conclusions a bit.

[Off the Mark]

vote: ZeekLTK

It's WAAAAY too early to start acting like you've confidently figured out scumbuddies. That was a ridiculous statement.

[Off the Mark]

vote: ZeekLTK

It's WAAAAY too early to start acting like you've confidently figured out scumbuddies. That was a ridiculous statement.

FoS: Off the Mark

You are WAAAAY too defensive for such an early stage of the game.

I'm not being defensive, I'm objecting to your comment about "not voting one of your scumbuddies". That seems really scummy to me, regardless of who the target is.

It was just an offhanded comment lol.

Possible, I am watching you.

But it is odd that you:

a) Are constantly throwing your vote around to hope it sticks on a bandwagon (you've voted 4 times total so far)

That's the best way to scumhunt in the early game. That's how I play it, anyway. I see the slightest hint of scumminess, I call it out, place a vote, and then watch for reactions. Your reaction was scummy.

b) Have been a vote on every person so far that has had more than 1 (j-man, earwig, me)

Are you honestly accusing me of jumping on bandwagons? Because I thought all of my scumtell call-outs were completely original. Were there other votes on you when I voted for you? If so, I had no idea.

c) Your initial vote for earwig was a "random vote" but you tried to make a comment as if to put some reasoning behind it, which mafia tend to do

Um, no, that is not a mafia tell. My vote was not truly random in the sense that I didn't go to random.org or roll a die or anything. I glanced over the list of names and picked one out that caught my eye. So I felt it was random enough to still call it a random vote. You are really reaching here, which feels like overdefensiveness to me.

d) Are so defensive so early

As I explained, my accusation of you has nothing to do with defensiveness. I never even defended myself at all until this post. I simply accused you, and you are calling it defensiveness.

e) Are mafia but won't admit to it

Sorry, no.

[Off the Mark]

Agree with J-man that Dean looks fishy. Looks like he is trying hard to make others look scummy.

Still leaving my vote on Zeek for now tho.

[Off the Mark]

Well, I still think Off the Mark is town. Aggressive town, but town nonetheless. I'm curious as to why your opinion of ZeekLTK's post changed so quickly though.

OK, I understand how that looks a little strange. My first post where I said I agreed with Zeek and Earwig seemed paranoid was a gut reaction. And I still think Earwig seemed quite paranoid, but that doesn't necessarily make him scum.

Later, I looked over the bandwagon for Earwig, which was based on a fairly weak reason, and decided Zeek and Dean jumped on a little quickly, given that the reason was weak. I would have expected town to be a little more hesitant and questioning but they bandwagoned quickly, which seemed suspicious to me.

Hope that makes some sense. I do change my mind sometimes about who I find suspicious.

[Off the Mark]

1. Zeek
2. Dean
3. Earwig

[Off the Mark]

^^^ By the way, it's way too early to know that with any certainty. That's more of a "who's acted a bit scummy in the early game" list rather than a "probably scum" list. We don't know much yet.

[Off the Mark]

You didn't ask J-man a question.

[Off the Mark]

Ryan - you need to read the exchange again, carefully. You are not understanding something.

You asked

me, Estes, and Chaos

questions. Then J-man objected to your Q&A post. Then you accused him of not answering the questions. See the problem?

[Off the Mark]

Also

FOS: SorintheSeeker

for showing emotion after the night scene, a common scum tell. He's new though, so it could just be that. But townies dying are an expected part of a game with a night start, so the emotion seems fake.

I found this to be interesting. Why cant we be disappointed when we lose fellow townies? What is scummy about that? Emotion? Definitely not something that screams “scum” to me.

It is a common scumtell. I think it's even mentioned in the wiki. Basically, scum like to fake emotions to make themselves appear more on the side of town. A real townie expects to lose a townie or two every night, so there's no reason to fake "oh what a bummer!!" or whatever. Scum see it as an opportunity to earn townie points, thus - scumtell.

Sorin's response to my accusation convinced me he's just a noob though, so I'm no longer suspicious of him for that.

Ryan, you seem a little scummy to me though, since you have me and Dean both in your scumlist, even though I have said Dean is one of my top suspects. You think I am just distancing? Or maybe you just think one of us is scum and you're not sure which? Anyway, it seems odd that you wouldn't even address the fact that I suspect Dean.

My vote's currently on Zeek, but I would support a Dean bandwagon too. I'm still waiting to hear more from both of them.

[Off the Mark]

1: As a townie I don't expect to lose anyone at night, especially if we were smart during the day and went after the scummiest player

I don't understand. How does the town going after the scummiest player during the day stop a night kill?

[Off the Mark]

Ryan - I'm curious, what made you put Zeek in the town list?

[Off the Mark]

I explained that Zeek. Are you not reading carefully? I'm keeping my vote on you, although Ryan is giving me bad vibes too.

Like I said earlier, in the early game I'll cast a vote for any hint of scumminess. It can be a good way to get reactions. My vote for Earwig was for a hint of scumminess. You piled right on, though, and I said I agreed that he looked paranoid. I still think he looked paranoid, but there are multiple reasons for someone to be paranoid. He could be somewhat newb or he could have a defensive playstyle, or he could indeed be scum. Have you ever played with "omg_im_innocent_wtf"? That guy was the most paranoid player I've ever seen, even when he's vanilla town. That's why I called it a "weak reason".

But now I am voting for you for a stronger reason, and I am finding myself agreeing with Dean that Ryan may be scum too.

[Off the Mark]

What reason is there to put Zeek in the scum category? And what reason have I given you to put me in the scum three? I mean you want to talk about no reasoning, your post screams that.

False dichotomy. You had an "unsure" section too, but you somehow put Zeek in "town".

[Off the Mark]

So two your top three suspects are people who "bandwagoned" against your other suspect? Great logic there.

It's so obvious; this guy has to be mafia.

I didn't have a strong feeling about anyone besides you or Dean at the time, so I put Earwig in the #3 spot because of his paranoia.

Besides, like my discussion with Ryan demonstrated, there are plausible reasons to suspect players who have opposed each other. Either they could be distancing or you think one is scum, but not the other, but you're not sure which one.

"It's so obvious" feels like a huuuuuuge scumtell to me. You are playing on people's emotions, trying to make them feel they are dumb if they don't agree with you.

[Off the Mark]

I don't

know

if anyone's scummy, so I keep an open mind. I'm not going to dismiss everything Dean says because he's on my suspect list. And a good point is a good point. I am less suspicious of Dean now, but he could just be blowing smoke, so I'm keeping an open mind.

[Off the Mark]

Those are vague assertions, ryan. Can you explain how he did those things? What specifically gave you pro-town feelings?

[Off the Mark]

Oh my, you just picked out Zeek's most ridiculous post and said "good point". I am feeling quite good about my suspicions!!

[Off the Mark]

That's not why I thought it was ridiculous. His usage of the accusation "voting for one of your mafia buddies" in the early game made it ridiculous. I explained this already.

[Off the Mark]

whoosh

[Off the Mark]

To clarify, his accusation was that I considered the Earwig bandwagoners more suspicious than the J-man bandwagoners. His explanation for that is that Earwig and I are mafia buddies. This makes little sense, since I was the first to call out Earwig, but that wasn't even my problem with it.

My problem with it was that he is immediately making scum buddy connections in the early game, and he accused us with a confident attitude. I find that is a scum tell. When players try too hard to make connections, they're often scummy. And he's definitely trying too hard, since he's not even using good logic to do so. He should have at least taken into account the fact that I called out and voted for Earwig. If he wants to accuse me of early distancing, then fine, but he didn't even mention that. It just seems he was more concerned with accusations than logic and I find that very scummy.

Also, the J-man bandwagon made sense to me, as an initial probing bandwagon. I'd have to go back to make sure, but nothing stood out to me as players too eager to jump on. And J-man's been giving me town vibes, despite his aggressive style.

[Off the Mark]

OK, fair enough. IGMEOY.

[Off the Mark]

No, it's not, because I am not mafia. Your confidence is making look scummy, particularly since you are wrong.

[Off the Mark]

I have to wonder why you, the three people I've fingered as scum have deflected to Zeek being scummier, very interesting. Having you all three think Zeek was scummier (and one even placing a vote) I find very opportunistic, definetly makes me believe that one of you three is scum

That's crazy talk. Maybe it's because, oh I don't know, Zeek is acting scummy?!?!?

[Off the Mark]

I'd like to hear more from Gatoryguy too.

[Off the Mark]

Dean posted on Weds too. We've gotten almost nothing from Gatorguy still. Who are your suspects besides Dean? Who do you think is pro-town?

I can't stand this playstyle of not posting anything. If we don't share information, the town cannot win. Holding back is scummy.

[Off the Mark]

OK J-man, please explain your case against Gatorguy.

unvote:
vote: ryan

Your last post made me more sure. You are more concerned with pointing out a silly little word choice mistake of J-man's instead of asking for him to explain? Very anti-town and a stupid thing to be suspicious of.

Zeek could just be playing overaggressive (and a little poorly), but ryan, you've been outright scummy. Time for you to face some pressure.

[Off the Mark]

although all considering its a funny thing to point out when there is SOO much wrong with that post from your POV, im sure.

exactly

[Off the Mark]

Interesting. Zeek and ryan, your whole analysis of this situation still reads as incredibly scummy to me. Maybe it's just your playstyles, but something is off about you two. Especially this comment from Zeek:

Since we have a cop claim, if you want to test your sanity you can investigate me. I am the safest to investigate because I won't lie about my role: if you get an innocent then you are insane. And then if you aren't the real cop, the real cop won't waste an investigation AND end up revealing himself thinking he got a mafia when he didn't. If you get guilty on me then obviously Gatorguy is mafia and we should lynch him (if we don't today).

Are you honestly this naive? You think you can just make a statement like "I won't lie about my role" in a game of mafia and people will just accept you at face value? This is incredibly scummy or incredibly dumb, I'm not sure which.

You seem like you are trying to say "Don't lynch Gatorguy, investigate me instead since I, of course, am innocent, then you'll know if your investigation on Gatorguy is correct." You know what this tells me? You would only say this if you KNOW that your own investigation will return the same result as Gatorguy's! If Gatorguy comes up as scum, you just confirmed yourself as scum, bub, nice job. So let's get lynching.

unvote:
vote: Gatorguy

J-man, I would like a little more explanation from you about why you didn't go after Gatorguy earlier and why you didn't just claim in your first post since you have a guilty investigation and we probably have a doc who can protect you.

I believe J-man's claim because there was no real reason for him to lie, he was not under pressure. And he was already going after Gatorguy, but not sharing his reasons, which makes sense. And Gatorguy's response was totally unconvinving.

I want to think that scum have been outed as Gatorguy, Zeek, and ryan, but this game can't be that simple can it? In a way I hope I'm wrong, because I was looking forward to a fun and weird game here.

[Off the Mark]

EBWOP - ok, when I posted I did not see Zeek's last two posts, so I didn't know he was claiming Miller. For this to make sense, you really should have said it when you first proposed that J-man investigate you.

So what episode is your "Miller" role from? Give us the Cartman flavor. You are lieing scum, dude.

[Off the Mark]

Also, tell us more about your abilities. What can you do? I believe you should lynch all claimed millers on general principle. They're far more likely to be scum. Real millers often don't claim, or claim vanilla, because of this.

[Off the Mark]

Hmmm... you know what? Now that Zeek has claimed Miller, we CAN use him to test sanity, because we know for sure that Zeek will come up guilty in a sane cop's investigation. If he's telling the truth and he's a Miller --> guilty on investigation. If he's lying scum --> guilty on investigation.

Duh on me for not realizing this. And Zeek, you look scummy for not explaining it this way. You just kept saying "trust my claim" which is totally bogus.

The only way this will get messed up is if Zeek's a godfather. If he comes up innocent, he'll say "J-man is insane." I suppose the best thing to do at that point would be to operate under the premise that J-man is indeed insane, and then if a lynch demonstrates that J-man had a correct investigation, we need to immediately lynch Zeek.

Keep in mind, though, no matter the result of the sanity test on J-man, Zeek is not confirmed one way or the other between scum and miller. I consider it pro-town of course that he is helping us in this way, but it could be a ploy to gain trust, and also I don't find his manner of claiming particularly pro-town.

Delaying on revealing the Cartman flavor seems like it gives him more time to search through episodes for a plausible role. Shouldn't we post our flavor at the same time as we claim? I haven't played in many themed games, but that makes sense to me. J-man, I'd like to see your flavor / episode # too, now that Stewie has said we can share that.

[Off the Mark]

unvote

[Off the Mark]

Also, I don't appreciate ANYONE trying to bully ANYONE, J-Man

eh? what does this mean?

Agreed, if J-man is a random cop, then he is of no use whatsoever. It's very hard to find out if he's random though and it could cost us several mislynches. I'm going to watch the episode to see if I can figure it out. By the way, can someone explain to me how the epi #'s work? I couldn't even find my role's epi #. Does 813 mean season 8, epi 13?

I am leaning towards no lynch today. Or lynch ryan. Either one. When the population of the town is an even number, we can afford to no-lynch once.

Zeek could really be a miller, and ryan could still be scum. Ryan could have faked getting a town vibe from Zeek despite his scummy behaviour in order to look good to the town when Zeek came up innocent. Bottom line - Zeek was acting scummy and Ryan put him in his "town" list. That makes me very suspicious of Ryan, regardless of Zeek's alignment.

Zeek could be scum too, but I find it unlikely he would try to help us confirm the cop's sanity if he was scum. It would be an unusual ploy, but it's not beyond imagination.

[Off the Mark]

Ryan, you have reading comprehension issues. I'm not going to explain everything again, but let me just explain one thing. I said J-man was useless if he is a random cop - useless as a cop, of course. Yes his vote still counts, that is not what I was talking about.

You are incredibly paranoid or something, I really don't know what to think. Take a few deep breaths, calm down and read it again carefully.

I voted Gatorguy quickly because it made sense. We had to test J-man's sanity. Then when I realized we had a claimed Miller, I realized we could use him to test sanity without a lynch, so I think no-lynch makes the most sense for today. Do you not understand why no-lynch can be a pro-town move? When we have good info to work out, and an even numbered population, we can no-lynch to get a better lynch tomorrow and we won't fall behind at all in the endgame. Basically we still get the same # of lynches.

We have 10 alive right now. If we lynch, it's:

(I removed the other killing role from this analysis, as it is essentially random whether they kill scum or town and the other role may die at some point and that extra kill will go away - also I assumed 3 scum)

Day 1 - lynch, Night 1 - NK (8 alive)
Day 2 - lynch, Night 2 - NK (6 alive) <-- if no scum have been caught, game over

Now let's look at no-lynch:

Day 1 - no lynch, Night 1 - NK (9 alive)
Day 2 - lynch, Night 2 - NK (7 alive)
Day 3 - lynch, Night 3 - NK (5 alive) <-- if no scum have been caught, game over

So either way, we still have 2 lynches to kill scum. Now, it is true, if that other killing role kills a townie, we have less of a buffer to keep the game going. Hmmm... since we have another killing role, maybe a no lynch IS a bad idea after all. I just totally changed my mind while writing this post.

Day 1 - no lynch, Night 1 - NK, extra kill is a townie (8 alive)
Day 2 - lynch, Night 2 - NK, extra kill is a townie (6 alive, town loses)

Yeah, I changed my mind, I don't like the no-lynch. I don't want to lose the game with only one chance to lynch. So... I'm thinking we should just lynch Gatorguy.

[Off the Mark]

Ack! Estes there is a lot going on here and you are voting for a lurker?

HUGE FOS: Estes

[Off the Mark]

Off the Mark: You go through that entire post of why a "no lynch" would be good ONLY to say at the end that you are against it and we should just lynch Gatorguy91? I said it once, I'll say it again, I believe you are distracting the town for a reason and thanks for proving me correct again.

No, I'm the only one reasoning it out.

Anyway, I've watched most of the episode and it is pretty obvious that J-man is insane, if this is his role. It's also possible he is paranoid. (always gets guilty result) Cartman claims to be a psychic and consistently fingers innocent people as guilty for murders.

[Off the Mark]

Yup, watched the whole episode, Cartman only fingers innocent people, so J-man is definitely either insane or paranoid.

[Off the Mark]

Sorin and Zeek are mafia, I am almost sure. Either mafia or dumb as posts. I'll happily vote myself out of this game if I'm wrong, I don't enjoy playing with morons.

[Off the Mark]

I specifically said my analysis "assumed 3 mafia". Geesh. Again - reading comprehension issues. Do you know what "assume" means?

[Off the Mark]

Alright, look, I'm sorry I posted while frustrated, but this game has gotten on my nerves a bit. I feel I was the only one correctly breaking down the J-man/Zeek situation and all I get for my trouble is suspicion and votes. Please read my analysis and consider it carefully. I think my pro-town play is self-evident and it is frustrating when other players read it and their conclusion is "this guy has to be scum." I honestly cannot understand that.

[Off the Mark]

By the way, I am most sure about Sorin.

vote: SorintheSeeker

Reasons:

Just reading through pages 4-6 I got feelings that Off the Mark is scum based on a variety of his responses and statements. The strongest being Zeek's post 115 which deals with Off the Mark voting for Earwig, then unvoting and pointing suspicion on people who voted for Earwig, then listing two of his top three suspicions as people who bandwagoned against his other suspect.

I explained that quite clearly - twice. You don't even acknowledge my explanation here.

J-man saying "im done listening im ready to kill Gatorguy91" is hugely suspicious to me. Don't know if I believe his excuse about that being the term in meatworld mafia... I've never heard that before.

Kill vs. Lynch - I still don't see how this can possibly seem suspicious. I've seen many many games where people say "kill" while referring to a lynch - that's what a lynch is, isn't it? This is grasping at straws to cast suspicion on a claimed cop.

That scares me, as it could be incredibly effective if that is J-man's plan.

Again, trying to make the town doubt the claimed cop. Appeal to emotion (fear) too.

The last thing with being confident there are 3 mafia was just icing on the cake.

I had to make an assumption in order to do an analysis. 3 is typical for a game of this size. Please quote where I am confident, liar.

[Off the Mark]

Sorry for the triple post, but I also wanted to say I will not lynch myself, that was speaking from frustration there. Sorry for the outburst.

[Off the Mark]

Insane/paranoid is still real.

[Off the Mark]

Yeah, I'd be pretty suspicious of people wanting to lynch people who turned up guilty in an investigation too.

Just clarifying here -- this is sarcasm, right? You're really saying you think it was strange that Zeek was suspicious of people voting for Gatorguy?

Glad everyone in this game is not crazy.

[Off the Mark]

The vote would definitely be on Zeek, if not for the fact that we need him to test J-man's sanity. Speaking of which, Zeek, stop stalling and tell us your character and episode number since you already claimed.

QFT - spill it, Zeek.

[Off the Mark]

Zeek - you have to lynch the investigation result in order to test the sanity. But now since you've claimed Miller, you've given us another option.

[Off the Mark]

Still no Cartman flavor or episode # from Zeek. Waiting...

[Off the Mark]

dang what's going on here... we need to keep Gator and Zeek alive until we determine J-man's sanity. But I am guessing he is insane, based on the episode. We definitely do not want to lynch Gatorguy.

[Off the Mark]

Not sure why I said that, that was pretty dumb of me, actually. I don't think I had a good scum read on anyone besides Zeek at the time, so I figured if we lynched Gatorguy and J-man investigated Zeek, with the 2 results we could figure out J-man's sanity for sure.

Zeek's role claim makes sense to me, though. But I'm not totally dismissing the idea that he could be scum, but I'm leaning towards miller at the moment.

Ryan, you have been reading more like a strongly misguided townie to me lately, but I could be wrong about that too.

If I had to pick two scums right now, it would be Sorin and Estes. Zeek and Ryan are still suspicious too, but leaning town for me right now.

[Off the Mark]

Oh, and since we most likely have an SK, (since a pro-town vig should not want to kill during a night start) I would just like to remind him that you DON'T want to be left alone with the mafia. The more townies you kill, the easier it will be for the mafia to find you. So please, SK, try to target mafia for you own good. (and it will help town too, of course)

[Off the Mark]

Also, Ryan, my "lynch Gatorguy" comment was before I watched the episode and became almost certain that J-man is paranoid or insane. Now I think Gatorguy is nearly confirmed town, based on that psychic Cartman episode.

[Off the Mark]

Eh, I probably shouldn't have mentioned that yet. I should have given him time to give him more rope to hang himself with. Let's just see what happens before I make a case against him.

[Off the Mark]

ryan would you mind changing your sig? I am not crazy about feeling insulted at the end of every one of your posts. It doesn't make you look like the nicest guy either.

One of the reasons I think you are misguided town is because I have read one of your scum games and you were very careful not to stick out of the crowd too much in that one. In this one, you have been quite aggressive.

[Off the Mark]

LOL, much better.

[Off the Mark]

However, I am Vanilla. So you can't be the cop. Maybe it was the flavor of an innocent or something, IDK.

Hey I just noticed that Gatorguy claimed Vanilla. Gatorguy, do you have any Cartman flavor or episode # to go with that claim?

Also, I have no idea what "flavor of an innocent" means.

[Off the Mark]

Zeek - what was the point of that? Do you think reading that mess is easier than just reading the thread? (and yes, I actually read it)

Some of your interpretations of what happened in a given post miss the main point, but I'm not going to go break down every single time this happened.

I'll just answer this question:

OTM tells the serial killer to try to target mafia at night (what brought this up??)

When Gatorguy suspected Zeek of being the SK, it reminded me that we DO most likely have an SK, since there were 2 kills on the first night. Well, actually one of them was an "arrest", so maybe we have a "bad cop" who is functionally an SK. Anyway... I decided I might as well try to convince the SK to target mafia, for both their own good and the town's.

[Off the Mark]

Gatorguy, I am in 2 games with you and in both of them you are voting me for no reason whatsoever.

Yes, I have thought some of Zeek's arguments have been stupid. But since he finally shared the details of his role, I have said he most likely really is a miller after all.

Please quote some of my posts where I "did not answer his questions because they were stupid". That never happened, you pulled that out of thin air.

Besides, you thought he was the SK after his flavor reveal. And now you are attacking me for attacking him? You're all over the map.

I'm very curious to see how the J-man sanity test plays out. Maybe Gatorguy is scum after all and J-man is a sane cop. I still tend to think he's insane though, and Gatorguy is just a little confused.

Let me make this clear, Gatorguy - I am in the "Do the sanity check" camp - keep Zeek alive, and have J-man investigate him. This is your only chance of being cleared. By voting for me, you are establishing yourself as "Against the sanity check" - which only makes sense for you to do if you are scum.

Unless you want to clearly state that you agree with all my analysis, but you still want to vote to lynch me. That'd be a little weird, but feel free. Is there something about my playstyle that rubs you the wrong way? Is it my avatar? Because it's seriously weird that you seem predisposed to vote for me in two different games where I've given you no reason to do so. Oh well.

[Off the Mark]

OtM: Is it possible though we have a SK who wins if he's a sole survivor?

Yeah, isn't that always the case? My point was, the SK needs to keep townies alive in order to hide amongst them. If he kills off the town, the mafia will immediately know who the SK is, because he'll be the only one left alive who's not mafia.

[Off the Mark]

Sorry,

No, it's not, because I am not mafia. Your confidence is making look scummy, particularly since you are wrong.

was meant to be a response to

Please quote some of my posts where I "did not answer his questions because they were stupid". That never happened, you pulled that out of thin air.

That 1st quote is a response to Zeek's statement "It is clear that you are mafia". It has nothing to do with refusing to answer questions.

I am about ready to request replacement in this game, I can't deal with this craziness anymore.

[Off the Mark]

Blatant Lie- I'm not voting for you in 460.

OK, if you want to get technical about it, you voted for me earlier on Day1, and then you tried to get a lynch going on me Day2 with no reason. Big diff.

[Off the Mark]

Using zeek to test j-mans insanity kind of rests on trusting zeeks claim.

Actually, no we don't. That's the great thing about a miller claim. Whether he's telling the truth or lying as scum, he'll investigate the same way. (sane cop will show guilty) The only thing that would mess it up is if he was lying as town, which there is no reason to do, or if he has a godfather-type role, in which case it would be a bad idea to claim "miller".

[Off the Mark]

How about a top 1? Are you even voting right now Dean? I gotta agree with the

FOS

.

[Off the Mark]

Now usually I get night killed in the first few days because I'm so straight-forward and succinct in my gameplay but

I am pleased to see I have a few votes here so maybe that won't happen. (though I'm worried about what ryan said about it not being a real vote and instead a pressure one

and not lynching lurkers. hopefully that doesn't give anyone any ideas!)

As for my top suspects, my #1 is still Off the Mark. My other guesses would be Gatorguy and J-man. The people who don't come off scummy to me are ChaosOmega and

Estes

, but that's just barely.

OK, it's scummy to look too paranoid, but you are trying way too hard to

not

look paranoid, if that makes sense. "Yawn, la dee dah, those votes don't bother me," is basically the message you are trying to send here and you would have no motivation for posting this type of response unless you are scum. You even went to the extent of saying you were "worried" that Ryan's vote on you is not a "real" vote? Come on - thou dost protest too much.

Care to explain why Estes is one of the few you are not suspicious of?

[Off the Mark]

I think you needed to put Sorin's name in quotes.

Good point about Sorin's suspicions of J-man and Gatorguy with no explanation. Sorin, why are you suspicious of them? For me, all the pieces seem to fit: J-man is most likely an insane cop and Gatorguy is most likely vanilla.

You disagree with this? Please explain your theory.

[Off the Mark]

Sorin's at lynch -1. Time to share your Cartman role/episode, Sorin.

[Off the Mark]

^^^ don't believe it at all. Waaayyy too convenient. You just happened to pick Sorin to investigate? And if you are telling the truth we have an insane cop and a real cop? I don't think so. We'll lynch you when Sorin comes up scum.

[Off the Mark]

Besides, if there's a real cop, I would expect it to be episode 2-3. "Respect mah authoritah!" rather than the dawg. But I guess I am an old school SP fan.

[Off the Mark]

So what made you pick Sorin to investigate?

[Off the Mark]

Where's your breadcrumb of Sorin? Without a breadcrumb, there's no way we can believe the claim.

[Off the Mark]

Estes, if you are telling the truth, then I apologize in advance. But you gotta see how this looks like way too big of a coincidence to trust in. Sorin says he trusts you, you both look pretty scummy, then you come out and say you have an innocent investigation on him when he is about to be lynched. I just can't buy that.

Hey, if we lynch him and he comes up town, at least we can confirm your sanity. I think the best move is still to lynch Sorin.

[Off the Mark]

I did a reread of this whole stinkin' game last night and I think Estes and Sorin both as scum makes the most sense. Overall, though, I gotta say...

Boy, lot of crazy kids in this game. I'm guessing most of you are in high school/college? I am an old man.

[Off the Mark]

Chaos, this part of your post:

It just so happens that one of the 2 people Sorin picked likely not to be scum happens to be the cop that investigated him night 1. It all just seems a little too conveinent.

conflicts with this part:

Suspicious? Yes. Obvious mafia move? No. From his join date, Estes is a fairly new player, he might have saw Sorin at L-1, and thought, "I know he's inncoent, I'll claim to save him." Hell, I made a mistake similar to that last game I played.

You seem quite wishy-washy here. Which do you believe is the truth?

[Off the Mark]

I do like the point that if you WERE scum you would have been fine with a Sorin lynch and not tried to save him.

I agree with this, if Sorin and Estes are both scum, it was foolish of Estes to try to do a last-ditch claim to save Sorin.

BUT it is also foolish for a cop to do a last-ditch claim to save an innocent townie. It is far more important for a cop (especially a 2nd cop who we probably can't protect) to stay hidden than to prevent a townie lynch. The correct move would have been to breadcrumb Sorin's innocence and then not claimed until Estes had a guilty investigation. Now he's exposed himself for very little gain. Even if he were successful in preventing Sorin's lynch, we still have a very good chance of lynching a townie on Day 1, so it's just not worth it for a cop to claim at this point, just to protect an innocent. And then you take sanity issues into account, and that's another reason for him to stay quiet.

So either way, Estes was foolish to claim. We need to go ahead and lynch Sorin to sort this out. If Sorin is innocent, and J-man does the sanity check on Zeek, we could have two confirmed cops on Day 2 and that would be well worth one townie's death.

[Off the Mark]

Chaos: OK, I guess that makes sense. It just seemed odd you said "the whole thing is suspicious" but then you went on to give a pretty extensive defense of Estes, saying "he could have mistakenly done this..." Seemed kinda like scum who was waiting to see which way the wind was going to blow, then you can look like you were always on board.

[Off the Mark]

There is nothing anti-town about my reveal (if there is I'd like to hear it) so I don't see how anyone can suspect me as possibly being mafia any more. If anything, it just looks more suspicious on the parts of those who do try to make a case against me.

Well, it's not so much that the reveal is anti-town, but "miller" is a convenient excuse for scum. Especially scum who has been investigated, or thinks they are likely to be investigated. That being said, I don't think that's what you are doing here, but it is possible.

[Off the Mark]

Sorin - granted, you may just be playing badly instead of actually being scum. But when someone acts scummy, you gotta lynch them, or else everyone can use that excuse.

Your plus/minus system needs serious work. I haven't earned a single "+" despite all my Zeek/J-man analysis? I even watched the freakin' episode and determined that J-man is most likely insane and still, not a single "+". Obviously you have some bias issues. I am guessing your bias is that you are scum.

[Off the Mark]

Wait, this doesn't make sense:

I don't really listen to anything my top mafia suspects say usually.

quick sidenote here: this is a really bad way to play. It's basically laziness. You need to analyze the posts of those you are suspicious of MORE than those in your "town" category. You need to ask yourself, with every post by a suspicious player, "What's his motivation as scum for this post? Does it make more sense that he's actually town?" Also, you've got to analyze for scum partner connections. Anyway, all that's besides the point.

The point is, then you posted this list:

ChaosOmega + -
DeanWinchester -
Earwig -
Estes +
Gatorguy91 - - -
J-man + - - -
Off the Mark - - - - -
ryan - + -
SorintheSeeker
ZeekLTK -

Look how many minuses are after my name and J-man's, and Gatorguy's. In order to create this list, you would have had to been paying attention to ALL our posts, despite being suspicious of us. You know what I think? You created this list simply to explain your suspicions, you never used it throughout the game. Regardless, it is clear you lied when you said you don't pay attention to your suspect's posts, so you need to be lynched.

[Off the Mark]

Heh, I was really confused about the mason thing and then I remembered the night 1 kills.

I agree somewhat with your suspicion on Gatorguy's vanilla claim, but there's no reason to dig into that before the sanity check. I have seen themed games with only 1 or 2 vanilla town, so it seems plausible to me. And his episode makes sense for vanilla, too.

I'd guess we have a powered-up town vs. 3 mafia + SK. It'll be great if we come out of this with 2 cops, so in a way, I'm hoping I'm wrong about Sorin. But catching 2 mafia on Day 1 is awesome too, so really we are in a win/win situation for town, which is pretty unusual for Day 1.

Another reason there are prob 3 mafia. We had a night start. If we only had 2 mafia, and SK would have offed one of them during night 1, that would severely suck for the mafia. Pretty unbalanced.

[Off the Mark]

One more tip for the doc: if Sorin is lynched and comes up town, protect either J-man or Estes. You might want to select randomly using random.org just to make sure you aren't biased. That way, the mafia will be taking a 50% risk of getting their kill blocked by going after one of the cops. That means hopefully they won't risk it and will leave them both alive.

If Sorin comes up scum, which I expect he will, then of course protect J-man.

[Off the Mark]

Just thinking about the sanity test... what does it mean if J-man gets a guilty result on Zeek?

Possibilities:

1) J-man is a sane cop, Gatorguy and Zeek are both scum - possible but unlikely, because why would Zeek expose himself this way?

2) J-man is scum, but wants us to think that scenario 1 is true, so we lynch Gator or Zeek. <--- quite possible, but it doesn't match my read of J-man

3) J-man is an insane cop, Gatorguy is innocent, Zeek is godfather - now this is interesting... here, Zeek as godfather claims Miller in order to "force" himself to be investigated. Every godfather really wants to be investigated, or else they might as well just be normal mafia. In this case, when J-man comes back with guilty, Zeek would have to convince us that scenario 2 was the truth. I find this highly doubtful and very risky for Zeek.

Since none of these scenarios seem very likely, I doubt the investigation comes back "guilty".

If it comes back innocent, there are a couple possibilities too:

1) J-man is insane cop, Gatorguy is innocent, Zeek is Miller - obviously this is most likely

2) J-man is an insane cop, Gatorguy is the godfather, Zeek is scum -I believe this is the theory Estes posted a while back (which seemed a little desperate at the time, but I am analyzing all possibilities here). In this case, Zeek knows he has to do something desperate to prevent the lynch of the godfather, so he comes up with the miller claim, knowing his own guilt will make Gator look innocent. <--- I doubt Zeek was able to think around that many corners. No offense to you, Zeek, lately you've seemed like a pretty smart guy, but I don't know any players that would come up with a plan that convoluted. And if they did, they'd post more analysis, they wouldn't just say "I won't lie about my claim, trust me." Ironically, that makes me trust Zeek more, because someone who was working a conspiracy would put a little more effort into their deception.

3) J-man is lying scum, but he has gained the trust of the town and been confirmed as cop by correctly identifying Gator as town and Zeek as Miller, while pretending to be "insane". <--- quite possible, but I doubt lying scum would think of making themselves insane.

Please let me know if I've missed any possibilities. And sorry if this seems like I'm distracting from the current lynch, I was just thinking more about the sanity test and I wanted to get my thoughts out there before the end of Day 1.

[Off the Mark]

Ah, I forgot the possibility that J-man is a paranoid cop, or even a random cop. (doubt he is random as that would just suck for town)

If he's paranoid, then his investigations don't really give us any info about Gator or Zeek.

[Off the Mark]

because someone who was working a conspiracy would put a little more effort into their deception.

O Rly? Then why don't you trust me? I didn't do some mumbo jumbo crap, I just posted the truth. It's like no matter what I say everyone chooses not to believe me.

Ridiculous.

It's a different situation. Your claim/lie is more simple and straightforward. Either you are lying or not. In the Gator-as-godfather scenario, Zeek is required to do lots of analysis, come up with a lie to fit the situation, and then convince the rest of us to go long with his conspiracy/plan. I would think that this type of player would use lots of analysis to convince us. A bit of WIFOM reasoning here, but there you have it.

[Off the Mark]

Why? Dean has been mostly lurking and has posted a few iffy posts. I don't see him as real suspicious, and I also don't see us learning a whole lot from his lynch.

With Sorin, we have a suspicious cop claim to evaluate. Lynching Sorin is perfect for the town, as we can figure out if Estes is telling the truth, without taking the risk of killing a cop.

[Off the Mark]

I am very confused by this.

I don't even pretend to be mafia to prevent myself from being nightkilled like many people do.

Who would pretend to be mafia? That's a surefire way to get lynched. And actually, your worry about being nightkilled was one of the most suspicious things about your early posts. It's like you were patting yourself on the back for being such a great pro-town player, when you were nothing of the sort. You barely posted, didn't help the town at all, and every post looked very suspicious.

Your whole thinking on this seems ass-backward, which makes me think you must be looking at everything from a mafia perspective.

[Off the Mark]

Gee whillickers, this game died fast. Why aren't we lynching Sorin?

[Off the Mark]

FOS: Earwig and Dean

for sitting on the sidelines. Either you trust Estes or you don't and you should vote Sorin. You need to state an opinion either way. Trying to lurk through this situation is incredibly suspicious.

[Off the Mark]

Just thinking about the sanity test... what does it mean if J-man gets a guilty result on Zeek?

Possibilities:

1) J-man is a sane cop, Gatorguy and Zeek are both scum - possible but unlikely, because why would Zeek expose himself this way?

2) J-man is scum, but wants us to think that scenario 1 is true, so we lynch Gator or Zeek. <--- quite possible, but it doesn't match my read of J-man

3) J-man is an insane cop, Gatorguy is innocent, Zeek is godfather - now this is interesting... here, Zeek as godfather claims Miller in order to "force" himself to be investigated. Every godfather really wants to be investigated, or else they might as well just be normal mafia. In this case, when J-man comes back with guilty, Zeek would have to convince us that scenario 2 was the truth. I find this highly doubtful and very risky for Zeek.

Just realized I missed one real obvious possibility here.

If Zeek comes up guilty, it could mean J-man is sane, Gatorguy is scum, and Zeek is Miller. In fact, that is probably the most likely case if Zeek comes up guilty.

[Off the Mark]

As long as I'm not hammering, I think it would be beneficial for an

Unvote, vote Sorin

What makes you not want to hammer?

[Off the Mark]

Interesting that Gatorguy and J-man were the last 2 votes. Sorin said he was most suspicious of them. I'm quite interested to see how the sanity test turns out. J-man could be jerking us around here, but I really hope not.

[Off the Mark]

Great, now if you are the real cop, scum can simply kill Dean. Or you. You should have kept that to yourself. You seem more like a guy trying to prove that he is cop rather than a real cop. If you are a real cop, worry about playing as the best cop you can be, rather than constantly trying to prove that you ARE the cop. There's a difference.

[Off the Mark]

Estes - maybe you're telling the truth and you're insane too. Let's hope.

[Off the Mark]

Hey only one nightkill, sweet! Looks like bad cop Cartman got his "kill" but the scum group did not. (my best guess, anyway)

I may have some critical information to share here, but I want to get others' intial reactions and then I'll reveal what I know. I may have found another scum.

Can we get J-man's and Estes's investigation results?

[Off the Mark]

OK, well, J-man's investigation most likely isn't going to reveal scum, since it is the sanity test on Zeek. At best, it will show that either Zeek or J-man is lying, but nothing will be certain.

So I'm going to share what I know.

I'm a roleblocker. My role is "Revenge Business Cartman" from 616. I smear crap all over people's houses and then they have to clean it up all night instead of performing their night actions. I blocked Ryan last night and I may have blocked the scum kill.

I breadcrumbed my role in post 324, when we were talking about breadcrumbs.

I did a reread of this whole stinkin' game last night and I think Estes and Sorin both as scum makes the most sense. Overall, though, I gotta say...

B

oy,

l

ot

o

f

c

razy

k

ids in this game. I'm guessing most of you are in high school/college? I am an old man.

So I feel this a pretty good lead. Now it's possible that scum tried to kill a doc-protected townie, which is likely if they tried to go after a cop, but I still feel this is worth sharing. I realize I set myself up as a possible nightkill target by claiming, but my role is not one of the stronger ones, so I think scum will continue to go for the cops or the doc.

FOS: Ryan

[Off the Mark]

Hold on a second. I don't like this post one bit, you are basically saying that because you blocked me the kill didn't go through? Who's to say I had a night action? Seems pretty convenient you'd come out with this info BEFORE J-Man's investigation results.

Of course you don't like it. Got any strategy reason why you don't like it, or is it simply because it is evidence against you?

And what do you think I'm trying to pull by revealing this before J-man's result? I explained why I didn't wait. How is that "convenient"? Are you trying to imply that J-man and I are scum partners or something?

You're caught, Ryan. That response sucked.

[Off the Mark]

Estes, LOL!!

[Off the Mark]

I'm surprised you are taking the tactic of "You must be scum who is false-claiming." That's what seems shady to me right now. Isn't it much more likely, if I am wrong, that what really happened was an unfortunate coincidence that the scum kill was blocked somehow and I blocked you? If you were innocent, that is the direction I would expect you to take.

But no, you've brought out a "you must be scum with J-man" OMGUS attack, which doesn't make any sense. J-man still needs to share his result, and even if he is scum, it will be very hard to tell based solely on his claimed investigation result. If I were scum, I gain nothing at this point by coming forward before J-man.

[Off the Mark]

Funny, you didn't even consider the merits of my claim, or check out the episode or anything. You just dismissed it. If I was scum, then my claim would be fake, which means you'd want to investigate it. But since you know I'm NOT scum, and my claim is legit, you didn't bother. Face it. You're caught.

[Off the Mark]

vote: ryan

Mafia Roleblockers are quite rare. I am not one. It should be clear from the Day 1 discussion that I am town.

[Off the Mark]

Oh also I wanted to comment on the lynch scene. Since Stewie said something about the way Cartman looks, I'm guessing that upon his death, Zeek will appear to be anti-town, and then we'd find out his true role (whether it's scum or miller) in the morning. I'm guessing Zeek's role is the whole reason for that game mechanic. There could be other roles like that too, like maybe a Godfather that will investigate as town AND will appear town during the death scene? Just speculating here.

[Off the Mark]

Also, I don't understand why role blocking one person would make the mafia not be able to kill. If ryan is mafia and is blocked, then couldn't the other mafia still kill whoever? Or was there only 2 mafia?

This varies by game. The two most common ways to manage this are

1) the scum pick someone to go kill and if that scum is blocked then the kill does not take place

2) if there are 2 remaining scum, and I block a scum, then my block has a 50% chance of success - determined by random.org

Another possibility:

3) whichever scum sends the mod the PM with the NK choice, they are the one doing the "kill" and if I block them, then I am successful

Ryan's responses are further cementing him as scum in my mind. I'll build a case using only his Day 1 behavior if you'd like, so you can see why I chose to block him in the first place. I don't have time for that now though.

[Off the Mark]

^^^ all those posts just show that I was wrong. Is that honestly why you think I am scummy, because I was wrong? And all my ideas made sense at the time and I think most of the town understood where I was coming from and even agreed with most of my points. At least, there wasn't a lot of arguing about those points at the time, so it seemed people understood/agreed.

You gotta admit Estes's claim and investigation seemed like a huge coincidence. That's the whole reason I didn't trust him! Heck, he could still be scum who decided to claim in order to become a "confirmed" cop. We don't know for a fact that that's not what's going on here. (at this point, I am trusting him though)

[Off the Mark]

I think with all these power roles we probably have 3 mafia + SK, otherwise the game is way unbalanced in town's favor. I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia had extra powers too, like godfather or roleblocker, since the town seems quite powerful.

[Off the Mark]

Dean's thing about music... Estes can you elaborate? Maybe if we can figure out that role it'll help tremendously.

It said I saw music written down, and nothing suspicious. That was all; I just assumed it meant he was a singer/composer/writer or something.

Can anyone who watches South Park figure out a show where Eric has something to do with music?

The two dead masons were related to music, maybe Dean was a mason too. No specific episodes are coming to mind though, where Eric writes music, but there is the one with the brown note where the boys edit the national kids' band music to try to make the whole world crap their pants.

[Off the Mark]

So you think it's 3 mafia then?

Right after I posted that I was thinking "hmmm... the town has a vigilante and there is a SK, so there has to be more than 2 mafia because there is a high chance of one of them dieing at night."

So I'm also thinking 3 mafia... and this is the set up:

3 mafia
1 serial killer
-
2 masons
2 cops (1 sane, 1 insane)
1 doctor
1 vigilante
1 roleblocker
1 miller

If this is the case (and no one has lied about their claims) then the doctor has a huge advantage here because he knows who the remaining mafia/SK is. The only problem is a) do we believe the people who have claimed? and b) how does the doctor let the rest of us know who to go after without revealing himself?

Gatorguy claimed vanilla. Maybe we don't have a doc. Also your idea about the doc knowing who is scum assumes that none of the claimers are lying.

[Off the Mark]

That makes sense - mafia are non-Cartman characters. Not sure how it helps us though, so I don't know why ryan is saying "good point!"

[Off the Mark]

We don't know Sorin's role do we? Just that he was town, what if he was the doc?

He was a vig

[Off the Mark]

Also your idea about the doc knowing who is scum assumes that none of the claimers are lying.

Duh, you mentioned that. I am an idiot.

[Off the Mark]

We only have 3 unclaimed players, we may as well mass-claim.

[Off the Mark]

That makes sense - mafia are non-Cartman characters. Not sure how it helps us though, so I don't know why ryan is saying "good point!"

Because my non paying attention friend, if that's the case it should be easier to find the liars when it comes to claims IF it's true that the scum is non-Cartman.

I never expected Mafia Cartman to claim their actual episodes, I thought that'd be too obvious. They'll need to make one up either way, whether they are "evil" Cartman or non-Cartman.

[Off the Mark]

I know. What mafiascum role has the ability to do that?

The "arrested" part is just flavor. Seems to be just like an SK to me.

[Off the Mark]

Gatorguy I just completed a game with 3 mafia + SK and a way less powerful town than this. So I disagree about 3 mafia being too hard for town.

[Off the Mark]

True, the SK hurts the mafia and the town.

[Off the Mark]

There have to be at least 3 mafia, because of the vig and SK. With that many nightkills, a 2-person mafia could be wiped out way too quick.

So we have:

Mafia - ChaosOmega (too bad his role wasn't Butters/Professor Chaos)
Mafia - ?
Mafia - ?
SK - ?
Vig - Sorin (dead)
Mason - Vendagoat (dead)
Mason - DeliciousGoldfish (dead)
Miller - Zeek
Insane Cop - Jman
Sane Cop - Estes
Roleblocker - OTM
Vanilla - Gatorguy

Unclaimed - Ryan, Earwig/Sorin2, Dean

Now Dean is innocent according to Estes's investigation, so somebody is lying about their claim. We have only 2 unclaimed/uninvestigated players left and 3 scum spots to fill. (perhaps Dean is an investigation-immune SK?)

Not really sure where to go from here, but I am still pretty confident Ryan is scum. It fits with this analysis and it fits with my roleblocking, so I'm sticking with it.

[Off the Mark]

Still no comments about my role. You really think I would make up "Revenge Business Cartman" who smears crap on houses?

[Off the Mark]

Besides your whole line of argument is seriously flawed. You think I did all that analysis to prove that someone is lying about their claim, when

I

am the one lying? Use your head, man.

[Off the Mark]

Still no comments about my role. You really think I would make up "Revenge Business Cartman" who smears crap on houses?

Maybe the mod sent you a "safe claim" Saying that I'm 100% incorrect in suspecting you is just plain narrow minded.

Well, from my perspective, you are 100% incorrect to suspect me. "Roleblocker" would be an awfully weird safe claim, wouldn't it? If the mod did such a thing, he'd be shoehorning me into playing the role a certain way. Maybe that does happen around here, but I've never seen anything like that. Your theories keep getting more outlandish.

[Off the Mark]

Still no comments about my role. You really think I would make up "Revenge Business Cartman" who smears crap on houses?

Maybe the mod sent you a "safe claim" Saying that I'm 100% incorrect in suspecting you is just plain narrow minded.

Ahhhh, I just realized something. I think the mod DID send out safe claims, and you got one, and that is why this occurred to you.

[Off the Mark]

Hmmm "nice cartman" (Gatorguy's role) does sound like it could be a safe claim, rather than a real one. Very interested in J-man's investigation result.

[Off the Mark]

Very sorry for the quadruple post, but another thing my all-roles analysis points out is that we are unlikely to have a doc. In the case that we don't have a doc, Ryan MUST be scum because the only possible blocker is me.

[Off the Mark]

I know that they are used. This is only my second themed game, so I don't know how common safe-claims are. And I didn't think that your accusation of my use of a safe-claim was solid evidence that you were scum or anything, I just thought it was a possibility. It made sense that if you HAVE a safe claim, it would be natural that you would accuse someone else (who has a very believable claim and is pointing the finger at you) of using a safe claim.

Anyway, that is the most minor point of my evidence against you. Basically, I found you scummy on Day 1, (especially since Sorin turned up town) so I blocked you. Then there was no night kill by the scum. HMMM! And based on all the claimed roles, it looks like we most likely don't have a doc. Double HMMM! And now your response to my claim is to OMGUS accuse me, rather than examining another explanation. ALSO, you said you "couldn't get a good read" on Chaos, which is about as non-commital as it gets and is exactly what you'd expect to be said between two scum.

[Off the Mark]

If one cop is insane or paranoid, it makes perfect sense.

Hmm with all the claims here, plus we know Dean is somehow related to music (not a doc), and Ryan couldn't self protect even if he WERE a doc, the only possible remaining doc is Earwig/Sorin2. I doubt the real doc would lie and claim something else.

[Off the Mark]

My post 496 was in reply to Ryan's, I just saw Zeek's post.

Agreed, Earwig/Sorin2 is a decent lynch. Poor guy, could get lynched two days in a row. But I'm a lot more sure that ryan is scum.

And your call about Gatorguy being SK is very likely, that makes sense to me. J-man's sanity might shed more light on that, but I have seen investigation-immune SK's, and SK's who turn up guilty, so it's hard to know on that one.

We should at least pressure Ryan into claiming so we can see make a judgement on his "safe claim".

[Off the Mark]

Wait, Ryan wouldn't need to self-protect, duh... I screwed that up. Ryan cannot be a doc who blocked a kill because my roleblock would have kept him from doing his job. So Ryan still can't be a doc, but for a different reason.

[Off the Mark]

That's why I want more pressure on you, so we can evaluate your "town role".

[Off the Mark]

Well there was no kill, first of all. So if Chaos sent it in there would have to be a doc who blocked it. Right now it's looking like there is no doc who could have blocked it, which means you are scum, my friend.

[Off the Mark]

Sorin you need to play a few games in the newb section. Your post makes it clear you don't understand several things about this game.

You should have claimed, first of all. Most claims are unprovable at first. That's OK.

Secondly, I made a list of all the claims a little ways back. I think Zeek made a list too.

Also, I think Ryan, Dean, and Sorin(2) all need to claim. As I said before, we've pretty much mass-claimed already and this will only help us identify scum at this point.

[Off the Mark]

Are you serious, Zeek? Man, you seem to be doing good analysis and then you say something illogical like that.

Look, we are not in lynch-or-lose right now because a) the scum did not get a NK and b) the SK killed scum. We are sitting pretty good right now, actually, and can even afford a couple mislynches. Since I seem to be the only one who can block scum kills, you probably want to keep me around a little while longer, but we can certainly afford to lynch unclaimed players like Earwig/Sorin2 and ryan.

Look at this:

Oh there's been claims but honestly do you believe everyone has told the truth? You seem real intent on finding everyone elses allignment, looking who to nightkill next?

This is pure desperation here. Of course I am intent on figuring out everyone's alignment, that is how you win! And besides, if that were my motivation it would be a little silly. I think scum has plenty of good targets at this point (mainly the 2 cops and myself) so there would be no motivation for me-as-scum to try to sniff out more roles.

[Off the Mark]

Unless we have a doc, you are scum. You cannot talk your way out of that one.

[Off the Mark]

We have 10 alive right now. If we lynch, it's:

(I removed the other killing role from this analysis, as it is essentially random whether they kill scum or town and the other role may die at some point and that extra kill will go away - also I assumed 3 scum)

Day 1 - lynch, Night 1 - NK (8 alive)
Day 2 - lynch, Night 2 - NK (6 alive) <-- if no scum have been caught, game over

All the mafia knew going into the night was that the vig was dead, and there was still a serial killer on the loose.

It's perfectly reasonable to assume they said "let's not kill anyone and let the SK kill a townie, then we'll blame the non-kill on a townie and get him lynched, then we'll kill someone on night 2 and win."

Because that's what would have happened if the SK killed a townie and not a mafia, we WOULD be in lynch or lose right now. You guys just didn't count on the SK hitting one of you.

unvote; Vote: Off The Mark

Good strategy though...

Zeek, what you are saying is possible, I will grant you that. But is it probable? No. Your theory here is way too convoluted. You gotta consider that the simpler answer is most often the correct one.

Even IF I was scum and I had made this plan during the night, once the kill was blocked and we were no longer at LYLO, I would have abandoned it.

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Well, if he is SK he'll get an innocent investigation (or guilty to an insane cop)

An sk will get a guilty investigation, that is just stupid Zeek.

Of course you'd say that. But I've seen lots of setups where SK comes up innocent. I'm pretty sure he was right and you are the SK. Besides, we don't even know about J-man's sanity yet, so you jumped the gun a bit there.

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PLEASE tell me you are joking? Go ask anyone who's played this game for any amount of time and ask them what they think of people who try and get everyone to claim their roles. It smells very strongly of scum trying to figure out the power roles to get their nightkill down.

Have you never been in a game where town has massclaimed? It can be quite helpful. Once several power roles have been exposed and a couple townies are dead, the pros to massclaiming outweigh the cons. Basically we get to evaluate everyone on the strength of their claims, and we identify all players who claim the same role as suspicious. (hmmm, maybe we should be more suspicious of Jman and Estes, but I'm waiting for the sanity test results) The con of massclaiming is that scum can plan their NK's, of course, going after the power roles, but since we've already exposed several power roles, that doesn't matter much at all.

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I would support an earwig/sorin2 lynch, but I'd rather it be ryan. I'll switch my vote to Sorin2, no problem, if I see he is getting more support for a lynch, but I think we have tons of scummy arguments from ryan and very little input from Earwig/Sorin2, so for now my vote stays put.

Notice how ryan argues above for a reason to go after the SK instead of mafia, but then he says "either way, blah blah" to try to appear neutral.

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Mod

can we do something about the rude namecalling in this thread? It's getting tiresome.

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It's a game, dude. You need to chill with calling people "idiots".

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Also, I've noticed when I defeat one of our debating points, you don't concede. You just completely ignore that entire line of debate as if it never happened. For instance, you never addressed my massclaiming response and there have been MANY points like that over the past few pages, where we go back and forth, and then suddenly you feel defeated and just drop it, but you bring up something else new to argue about, without ever saying, "Yeah I guess you have a point there." It is rather annoying.

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When you defeat? Careful, not sure if the room your in can support your head which seems to be growing. You haven't defeated any point I've made and I've already addressed your mass claim idea. R E A D the thread. I don't think you've had a good point since you said you roleblocked me (which you didn't because I didn't do anything) Bring up something decent scum and I'll think about saying you have a point.

I'm done talking to you.

[Off the Mark]

Sidenote: I totally called that Dean was brown noise Cartman. I am awesome.

Zeek is still looking for drama when it is really much simpler than that.

So, Zeek, let me ask you, do you think I made up the roleblocker role and found the episode that fits? Do you think the mod sent me a safe claim of "roleblocker" and I had to work that into some kind of scum strategy? These are the questions you need to answer if you believe I am lying about my role. I even breadcrumbed it for heaven's sake!

[Off the Mark]

Btw, why am I not in the "very likely to be town" category? How is my claim any less trustworthy than yours?

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I just realized something while thinking about this game. Town can afford a mislynch, so go ahead and lynch me. Then you will know I am telling the truth and I am a roleblocker. It appears we don't have a doc, so when I am dead you will 100% know Ryan is scum. I think it very likely Sorin2 is the other scum and Gatorguy.

Lynch me if you feel you need to, and then go kill the scum, it doesn't matter to me.

[Off the Mark]

EBWOP: that was supposed to say "and Gatorguy is the SK"

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When I'm dead, town will see that I am roleblocker, therefore I blocked you, which caused there to be no nightkill by scum last night. The only possibilities are:

1) I am lying - this is why I am offering to lynch me, so you will see that I am telling the truth. Lynch me and you'll see I'm roleblocker.

2) A doc had a successful protect. It seems impossible with all the revealed roles that we have a doc at this point. The only way this is possible is if Earwig/Sorin2 is the doc and all of the scum have already false-claimed.

3) Ryan is scum

There are no other possibilities. I am offering that I be lynched in order to get rid of #1. I think we can ignore #2 as extremely unlikely. (actually, we could just lynch Earwig/Sorin2 to eliminate that possibility - I kinda like that idea!) #3 is all that remains once you get rid of #1 and #2.

[Off the Mark]

I forgot one other possibility:

4) Scum submitted a no-kill. I see no reason why they would do that at this point in the game. Usually scum would do this to try to false-claim a doc protect the next day or to try to frame another nightkilling role as scum. Neither of those situations apply, so I highly doubt scum submitted a no-kill.

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Oh, and I didn't think it would SHOW any other role besides proving that I am telling the truth about blocking ryan. I just wanted to get all my suspicions stated clearly so that after I die and town sees that I was honest, they can have a confirmed townie's opinion to refer to.

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vampyr - I agree, ideally, I'd rather see ryan or Sorin lynched today. But if town doesn't trust me, I think lynching me would be OK and would lead to an eventual postive result for town.

But of course it would be great to give me another shot at blocking the nightkill too.

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Sorin2 has only posted once and Earwig barely posted on Day1. I'm sticking with ryan because more info will be revealed. If the Sorin2 wagon gets close to lynch, I'll switch.

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ryan just said "you might be pro-town OtM". If I am pro-town and we don't have a doc, then ryan is 100% scum.

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That kind of play doesn't help much, the one exception being my case where I can skip the night if I'm lynched and that will prove Estes' claim only losing one town

That's not a bad idea, but I would wait until Estes comes back with a guilty investigation on someone that most of us think is town. Then we could lynch you to find out if Estes is telling the truth, but at this point, it seems to me that he is.

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Good point, Zeek. No more votes until we hear from J-man or his replacement.

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By the way, anyone who's pro-town should be in favor of massclaiming at this point. We only have 2 unclaimed players and they are both likely mafia. They need to claim.

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So you are claiming doc, basically? That's interesting because since there was no scum kill and I BLOCKED you, there would need to be yet ANOTHER blocker to prevent the scum kill. Bad claim.

So if you're a doc, who'd you protect and why?

[Off the Mark]

and episode #?

[Off the Mark]

heh simulpost

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A doc safe-claim in a doc-less game makes perfect sense.

Ryan can't have it both ways. We can't both be telling the truth about our roles. He says I roleblocked his doc protect, but this is impossible. There's no way we have a third role who is capable of blocking the scum kill, but we know SOMEONE blocked it.

Either I am lying and ryan blocked it, or he is lying and I blocked it. Whom do you believe? I am willing to be lynched to prove that I am who I say I am. I doubt you will get a similar (sincere) offer from ryan.

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I meant "If we have a doc-less game, then a safe claim of doc makes perfect sense." It wasn't sarcasm.

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Yes, it is possible that you protected Estes and that's why he didn't die, but

only if I am a liar

. I know that I'm not a liar, so I know that's not possible. That's why, for everyone else's benefit, I say lynch me and you'll know with 100% certainty that ryan is scum.

Or you can just lynch him now, either way.

[Off the Mark]

The only possible way Ryan and I could both be pro-town is if scum submitted a no-kill just to mess with us and cause confusion. I don't see any real motive there, though. They couldn't have anticipated that there would be a roleblocker who would be convinced he had found scum as a result of the no-kill. That seems like a longshot.

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YOU aren't reading what I'm writing! I said IF Estes was killed than I would have been lying. He was my doc save for the night session, plain and simple. Lynching you isn't going to prove anything but whatever your role is will be exposed. Estes lived, what part of that aren't you seeing?

Yes I am, but you are missing the bigger picture:

1) I blocked you.

2) Scum kill was blocked.

3) How was it blocked? Not by you, due to my block. If you're not scum, then not by me.

4) Therefore you must be scum.

It's pointless discussing with you further, as of course you're not going to admit it, but you cannot avoid that logic. The ONLY possibility is that I am a big fat liar or you are scum.

[Off the Mark]

a) Didn't get a kill in

Yeah, right.

b) Were roleblocked by somebody else

Who? Is Sorin going to claim some type of blocker role too?

c) Didn't kill anyone in hopes of finding out more info (which by all these stupid claims you've been asking for, they have.)

Scum need to make kills more than they need info.

[Off the Mark]

HOW do we know everyone is telling the truth about their roles?

We don't need to know if everyone is telling the truth to figure this out. All we are concerned about is blocking/protecting roles. And do you expect us to believe that there is a THIRD pro-town blocking role out there, that for some reason has claimed a different pro-town role? I don't think so.

[Off the Mark]

I was just rereading the day2 posts and I couldn't resist sharing this.

2) I'm not a doc but I do have a pro town flavor.

Uh, what? He just claimed doc! Can we lynch this scum now please? Oh, I suppose we should hear from Jman first, but I think we've got this game figured out.

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True, but that is a semantics issue. If you can protect someone each night, you're a doc, and ryan has played this game enough times to know that.

My role does not say "roleblocker" it just describes the crap-smearing process. I had to PM the mod and confirm "so I'm basically a roleblocker right?" because I wasn't sure.

[Off the Mark]

Heh, I just watched it too. Loved the ending, what a great episode. Those dog whisperer scenes were classic!

But yeah, it's tough to undertstand how that could be a protector Cartman? He doesn't actually have much interaction with others in this ep. He sends Supernanny to the mental hospital, then he tries to recruit the other kids to kill his mom, then he decides at the last second to let his good side win and not kill her (maybe this is where the protection comes in? because he doesn't kill her?). Then at the very end, Cartman's mom goes back to spoiling him and Cartman gets an evil look in his eye while awesome German opera music plays. Heh, love that ending.

Anyway, I don't think the legitimacy of this episode/role matters much if the mod sent out safe claims. But it does seem like there's gotta be a better choice for a Cartman doc role. Actually, the episode is such a bad match to the role, I doubt ryan is faking it. It must be a safe claim, albeit a lousy one.

[Off the Mark]

Are you kidding me? Why are you such a sore loser? Is it so hard to get lynched like a man that first you have to resort to childish namecalling and say things that make no sense and then when that doesn't work you say, "Well this game sucks, I give up."

Talk about a poor sport!

Screw you guys, I'm going hoooome.

(that's only funny if you watch the show)

If you had just said "Yup I'm caught" from the beginning of Day2, I would have had no problem with it. Or you could have just said, "I don't know how to explain OtM. Either he is lying or scum no-killed. I protected Estes." See how simple that is? But no you had to throw a hissyfit and THEN give up and say this game isn't fun anymore. WHY isn't it fun, because you are going to get lynched? That is the very definition of sore loser. You need to grow up.

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Also, since he's "Evil Cartman" he may be like a godfather who will appear pro-town in the lynch scene.

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You're still complaining about my "freaking logic"? Unbelievable.

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Wow. I have nothing to say to that. You are a sad little man.

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It was inevitable. People are just waiting for Jman.

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Giving up is your ego's way of avoiding losing. I can't imagine the self-esteem issues one must have to be unable to lose a silly game of mafia.

[Off the Mark]

ROTFLOL. Good one OtM, quite possibly one of your best comebacks. I caused myself to lose, what the hell is the difference? I'm losing the game either way,

I went out on my terms

, I'm happy with my decision, you need to move on.

Exactly. Your ego couldn't handle it any other way.

[Off the Mark]

btw, I don't consider it my job to "sway the town". I just present the information, and the analysis according to my "alleged logic". If the town can't understand what it means on their own, that's their fault, not mine.

[Off the Mark]

:smashes head into wall:

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I'm not sure Jman's investigation matters that much anymore. If it comes up innocent, then I think he's insane. If it comes up guilty, then most likely he's paranoid. If insane, obviously he can help us for tomorrow, if paranoid, he's useless as a cop.

[Off the Mark]

vampyrus, maybe you missed the D1 convo, but Zeek claimed Miller (so we know he'd come up guilty) so Jman was going to investigate Zeek to test his sanity.

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Are you kidding me, Estes? You still want to lynch Sorin even though Ryan has given himself up? I've done all I can for this town. If you guys insist on shooting yourselves in the foot, go right ahead.

Of course, I do think Sorin is the other scum, but why not go for the sure thing (Ryan) and get another investigation to confirm it? I swear I've never seen a town this pitiful.

[Off the Mark]

I don't think I said that?

[Off the Mark]

Because then you can block ryan at night. It's better than not knowing who to block and one of us dieing.

I have a different idea of who to block. I already know Ryan is scum, I want to learn more.

[Off the Mark]

Don't worry about me, let me do my job. I can't discuss it here because it could affect night choices.

[Off the Mark]

Why aren't you lynching me? Or at least you can get my partner..........OtM, you can come clean now man, it's basically over for us winning this game. The distancing we did was good but, the town was just better. I told you the "no kill" idea wouldn't work. Just out yourself and let this town win for crying out loud.

LOL nice one. Now that would have been quite a show.

[Off the Mark]

I want to block another player I suspect of being anti-town. That's all I can say at this point. I will explain tomorrow and you will understand.

[Off the Mark]

Also, just because the roles are out, it doesn't mean all choices should be announced in thread. That can really help scum with choosing who to nightkill. For example, if we had a doc who announced who he was going to protect, that'd be pretty dumb. If a cop announced who he was going to investigate, and he chose an innocent, scum could kill that innocent to avoid a confirmed townie the next day.

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He was already replaced. We're waiting for remussaidow now. Maybe the replacement needs replacing.

Heh, "needs prodded" is such an Iowa thing, that cracked me up. I am moving to Iowa in a month or so. But I will refuse to put my groceries in a "sack" and I will not be keeping my money in a "billfold". (its BAG and WALLET, people!)

[Off the Mark]

Those were jokes, dude, you need to lighten up. I am moving there, you know, so I do actually like Iowa and Iowans.

"Needs <past-tense word>" is a speech pattern that is used in many rural areas, I will give you that one. I have heard it from Indiana people and Idaho people, for example. But it is incorrect, and I have heard it in Iowa a lot.

[Off the Mark]

Guys, I can't believe I even need to post this, but if we have a confirmed scum we should lynch him. This game is all about keeping a majority. If there's only 1 scum, then town will be sitting very comfortably and then we can pretty much lynch suspicious characters to our heart's content. Why do you not want to lynch Ryan and instead lynch a player we are unsure of??? That's what investigations are for.

[Off the Mark]

Why are we bothering to discuss who should be lynched with a confirmed scum? Ryan should be ignored.

[Off the Mark]

Paging Roach, Dr. Roach, please report to Cartman mafia.

We don't care if you've read the game, just give us Jman's result so then we can all vote for Ryan.

[Off the Mark]

Another genius in our midst. This game just keeps getting better.

[Off the Mark]

I don't understand you guys. Why aren't we lynching Sorin II

Why would we lynch anyone other than claimed mafia? Sorin can be investigated. This is a freebie for the town and you guys want to piss it away.

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LOL. We know that one. How about night 2?

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He took too long? What does that mean?

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OK as it seems Roach doesn't have a night 2 result (that sucks) how about for night 3, Roach investigates Zeek and Estes investigates Sorin.

Now can we please commence the ryan lynching? At least we can shut him up for good then. He's obviously trying to play the jester role now, despite being claimed scum.