Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!

[Erg0]

/confirmatory

[Erg0]

I guess that would at least narrow the field somewhat in terms of who was who. Depending on the actual number of power roles, it may or may not be useful to do so. Of course, if the tow agrees to follow the plan then the mafia and SK (if there is one) get free kills night 1 because they know who the doc will be protecting.

On top of all that, I'm inclined to believe Stoof when he says that he's built in disincentives to claiming - so all in all, bad plan in my eyes. I'd be inclined to think that LML could come up with something better if this were a gambit, though.

[Erg0]

okay i reckon we can turn this night start into a day start by using the vig's kill as the d0 lynch. i am of the opinion that this would be a good thing - although there are downsides the benefit is i think well worth it. thoughts?

Upside: The vig alone is not responsible for deciding the kill; any pro-town power roles get a chance to claim rather than be (more or less) randomly killed.

Downside: Scum get to vote on who to kill and exert influence over the decision; we may not want to force power roles into claiming D0.

Could go either way. The benefit or detriment to the town really depends on how competent and/or lucky the power roles are in making decisions for themselves.

[Erg0]

LML's role is sketchy (brilliant insight, eh?) While a tracker with a one-use self-target is realistic as a role, I'd say it's also somewhat unlikely. Enabling pre-list discussion combined with the ability to target oneself a single time conveniently leads to the exact plan LML has proposed. If genuine, it could be potentially game-breaking. I'm skeptical that a moderator would include a specific role function that would essentially end the game before the first lynch.

Target lists should not be random. Day 0 is a huge boon to creating your targeting list. A cop can start with the scummiest person and work their way down towards the townliest. A doctor should pick a few of the townliest players to protect, and have some repeat protections (if the doctor does not, and the Mafia missed a kill, then they could reasonably assume that their target is less likely to receive protection the next night. Of course, now that I've brought this to everyone's attention, I've opened a big bottle of WIFOM, and the doctor should protect however the heck they damn well feel they should). Without the benefit of Day 0, then everyone would be forced into random lists, but we have information to guide our choices now, no matter how limited it might be.

We were given two entire weeks for discussion, so let's make good use of that time and get a lot of information that will help our power roles. Day 0 should not be considered a kick-back day that doesn't really matter because there is no lynch. Day 0 could be the most significant day of the game.

I can think of a good reason why a tracker role would be included, but not so much for a watcher.

A formulaic approach to target lists (e.g. BMQ's suggestions above) will work better for some roles than others.

For roles that interact with the scum directly or indirectly (e.g. doctor, roleblocker) the individual with the role really needs to make the decision for themselves regarding what method to apply. Simply protecting the towniest players first allows the scum to get free kills on the scummy-looking players early in the game if they choose to take that path with their list. The counter-scum are playing double-bluff as much as anything. I'd probably advocate a weighted random approach, where certain players (e.g the most townie for the doctor) are preferred, but there is still an element of unpredictability in the selection process.

A cop, on the other hand, can and should investigate players in order from most to least scummy. Presumably scum can only stop the cop's investigation by finding the cop themselves, not by finding their targets. Hence, no need to take probable scum actions into account.

[Erg0]

Like any first day, the more information we draw out today the better. I have a feeling that this game will end up being decided on a combination of luck with night choices and good play during the day, though.

[Erg0]

That reinforces my basic point, which is that the doctor has more to think about in making his list than the cop does. If the doctor feels able to strategise well enough to make his/her own list then they should do so, in my opinion. That's probably one of the things I'd prefer to keep out of the thread.

[Erg0]

I'd say that the same principles about directing power roles that would normally apply also apply here. Anyway, regardless of what we decide the doctor would probably ignore us anyway (if he's smart).

[Erg0]

I disagree with BMQ's decision, but I don't really think that's a good reason to vig him. I also think that we don't really want to be forcing claims before the lists are submitted, since it gives the scum a heads up.

[Erg0]

I prefer VitR's phrasing.

[Erg0]

For the purposes of this discussion, I'm assuming that the "random" killer is an SK, and will continue to do so until I have a good reason to think otherwise.

It does look like the SK was trying to set themselves up for a vig claim, though that's obviously out the window now due to the flavour text. However, I can also see why an SK would want LML dead for other reasons, given that LML's role would allow him to discover said SK. Having been involved in the vig discussion on day 1 is a weak tell at best, I think.

On "random": it's entirely possible that random just means non-methodical, not truly random. That this killer doesn't prepare his kills may just be a representation of the fact that he makes a last-minute decision on who to bump off.

Random thought: is it possible that the random killer is a mod device, perhaps the afore-mentioned incentive not to claim?

[Erg0]

I often use the tell that Glork refers to as a basis for an early vote, but it rarely carries through to a lynch without further evidence. Of course, evidence comes through pressure...

Vote: Xdaamno

FoS: Mr Flay

, pending his response to VitR's response to him.

[Erg0]

Yes, but as Glork said it's a post for the sake of posting - trying to appear pro-town without actually saying anything helpful.

[Erg0]

I often use the tell that Glork refers to as a basis for an early vote, but it rarely carries through to a lynch without further evidence. Of course, evidence comes through pressure...

Vote: Xdaamno

FoS: Mr Flay

, pending his response to VitR's response to him.

Elaborate on why you think what I said is a scum tell

at all

, because I still have no clue.

The reason that it's a tell is that really served no purpose other than to visibly demonstrate how surprised you were at the night's results. If you'd gone on to express a theory or do pretty much anything else that would be fine, but as it stands the sole purpose of your post appears to have been to say, "Look everyone! I'm surprised!" I can't think of why you would think that you'd need to tell us that, unless you wanted to visibly distance yourself from the kill(s).

Hmm, I thought I remembered another Erg0 tell I was going to add to this, but I can't find it.

Thanks, that's ever so helpful.

I find it strange that you chose to answer me rather than Glork, considering he was the one that raised the point in the first place.

[Erg0]

I fail at tags. You get the idea.

I've now corrected the Tags - Stoofer

[Erg0]

I often use the tell that Glork refers to as a basis for an early vote, but it rarely carries through to a lynch without further evidence. Of course, evidence comes through pressure...

Vote: Xdaamno

FoS: Mr Flay

, pending his response to VitR's response to him.

Elaborate on why you think what I said is a scum tell

at all

, because I still have no clue.

The reason that it's a tell is that really served no purpose other than to visibly demonstrate how surprised you were at the night's results. If you'd gone on to express a theory or do pretty much anything else that would be fine, but as it stands the sole purpose of your post appears to have been to say, "Look everyone! I'm surprised!" I can't think of why you would think that you'd need to tell us that, unless you wanted to visibly distance yourself from the kill(s).

Why, would the town have been better of if I had

not

said it? It was merely almost-out-of-game speculation. You're a little paranoid if you feel someone has sinister intent whenever they express emotion, of all things.

I think I've come from the wrong direction when explaining this. A long time ago (2005ish) JEEP did some statistical analysis on completed games and found that people expressing disappointment/surprise/elation at the results from the previous night are more likely to be scum. The explanation that I gave above worked backwards from this result to provide my interpretation of why scum do this. The fact that scum do this is statistically proven, and is not open to reasonable argument. The prevalence of this has diminished since the tell was published, since people have obviously eliminated this from their play. However, it does still happen.

Like any tell this isn't 100% reliable, but it does exist and it has been proven at least somewhat accurate.

Hmm, I thought I remembered another Erg0 tell I was going to add to this, but I can't find it.

Thanks, that's ever so helpful.

OK, so you're suggesting my post would of had more helpful information if I left that out? It's not going to do anyone any harm.

You're just casting vague aspersions without providing anything to back it up. How am I supposed to respond to that?

I find it strange that you chose to answer me rather than Glork, considering he was the one that raised the point in the first place.

Well, I apologize. Your post just caught my eye, that's all.

I accept your apology.

[Erg0]

PLEASE NOTE: I have taken a number of steps to ensure that claims will have very limited value in this game. You have been warned.

That looks pretty conclusive to me. Your post did help me to crystallise my thoughts, though - I speculated before that the random kill could be a non-methodical role or a mod device to discourage claims. It didn't occur to me at the time that it is probably a combination of the two.

Tags corrected - Stoofer

[Erg0]

FoS: BMQ

1. I don't see how Xdaamno being surprised at the flavour (rather than the fact that there were two kills) makes any difference. I certainly don't remember ever drawing that distinction myself.

2. Distad's 191 is an example of the kind of post where surprise can be expressed without it being a scumtell - i.e. it covered a number of subjects and included a vote, rather than just saying "oh my, I'm so surprised!". We're talking about creating strong impressions, and a post which contains only one point will make a stronger impression than inserting that same point into a larger post. The single-point post serves scum's desire to appear surprised better, and is therefore a stronger scumtell.

Interesting theory on the killings, though I think CES pointed out the potential flaw fairly quickly. I also couldn't see anyone other than scum/SK killing Seol N1, unless our vig is a serious loose cannon.

Good to see Glork and CES fulfilling the requirement for at least one pointless semantic argument on day 1, by the way.

[Erg0]

Not entirely, no. Vitr makes sense and wagoning flay should give us plenty of information.

So that's the reason that you're staying on the wagon? Because I have to say that the case you made for your own initial vote didn't make much sense.

[Erg0]

Hmmm... persuasive as that was, I'm going to say no. I would like to see Flay respond to VitR's original post though, since I still have an FoS resting on him pending that response.

[Erg0]

Incidentally, the attempt to start a wagon on Flay while he's V/LA is noted.

[Erg0]

Now

this

is a wagon I can support.

Unvote, Vote: Brian McQueso

[Erg0]

Ask yourself this: if the SK were truly random, what are the odds that on Night 1 he would randomly kill the only claimed power role?

(Well 1 in 11, obviously, but hopefully you see my point)

Nocmen, that's just a lazy vote. It's like you only read the last two pages and picked the first thing that jumped out at you.

[Erg0]

Agreed. Not that we really need to reach a consensus on this, since I guess it's really up to the individual to decide whether they want to try and act in such a way as to avoid a non-random, non-methodical SK killing them.

[Erg0]

And that, I suspect, is that.

Can we talk about something useful now?

[Erg0]

Since nobody else asked...

Glork:

why

is BMQ a bad lynch today?

Distad, you've voted for four different people already today, and actually went from voting Simenon (for wagoning Flay) to jumping onto the next wagon he started. It looks like you just found a wagon that you thought might have legs, so you jumped on it without going through the intervening phase of concluding that Sim wasn't scum. I think you want to just get any lynch you can.

FoS: Distad

[Erg0]

That's a really strange moment for Simenon to switch wagons. If anything I would have thought that the BMQ wagon has more momentum than the Flay wagon right now (even before CES's vote), so I'm not sure how Flay became the compromise candidate in Sim's eyes.

[Erg0]

I'd be ok with voting for BMQ (obv), distad, or maybe Xdaamno today. I'm not really seeing the Flay thing at all. Sim kind of pinged my scumdar with that switch, but I've generally been ok with him today. If BMQ comes up scum he's in some trouble, though.

I'm concerned that we still have one player (Nocmen) who's hardly posted since day 1 started, especially since this could be a very close vote at deadline. I'm equally concerned that nobody has so much as mentioned him since day 1 began. I really don't want the lynch to swing on his vote, it'll lead to one hell of a WIFOM situation tomorrow if we lynch a townie.

[Erg0]

Sim: As I said above, I really felt like the BMQ wagon had more momentum than the Flay wagon, so I didn't see the reason for your switch.

Xdaamno: That's why you're third on the list, with a "maybe" in front. I don't want to lynch you with a passion that burns like the fire of a thousand suns, but I just haven't really liked your play today all that much so you're above the players that I've found more pro-town.

[Erg0]

After some re-reading and some soul searching, I've reached the conclusion that I don't want to lynch BMQ. I had enough against him for a vote, but I agree with Flay that there's not enough evidence that I'm happy with a lynch. I'm particularly wary of being on the same wagon as my next suspect, distad.

Unvote, Vote: distad

In addition to the hoppiness I noted earlier, I came across this little gem from day 0 while re-reading a moment ago:

Further, I'd be willing to bet that we DO have a vig in here. Stoof made a point of clarifying the rule that all power roles have to send in a list *unless otherwise specified in the role PM*. There probably is that provision in the vig's pm.

If that's not an SK breadcrumbing for a vig claim then I'm not here...

[Erg0]

Unvote

Re-read pending.

[Erg0]

I was wondering the same thing - does this mean we have a cult? Or does innocent/not cult mean that the person is neither scum nor a cult member, without guaranteeing that there is a cult?

[Erg0]

I'm not 100% sold on distad's claim, for two reasons:

1. He weakened it almost immediately by saying he thought Flay could be investigation-immune.

2. The general "poor me" vibe he's been giving off since, particularly in post 355.

Having said that, I'm not going to vote a claimed cop, or his innocent result, on day 1. It sounds like distad's not claiming to be able to detect an SK, so I doubt he's going to get killed tonight unless there's a cult making the "random" nightkill. This probably means that we'll have to resolve this issue for ourselves at some point.

I'd also tend to think that either Seol or distad has (or had) sanity issues, since two sane cops in any kind of 12 player game is extremely powerful.

I'm kind of seeing cases on VitR and Sim, though I find it unlikely that both scum would jump on someone so quickly at the start of day 1. Given my doubts on the reliability of distad's investigation, I can't really treat voting for Flay as a definitive scumtell, though I have thought throughout the day that the case on him was weak.

BMQ's "non doc" claim strikes me as a bit odd, in that I'm not really sure what he was trying to achieve with it. I don't think anyone was really basing their vote on the idea that he was the doc (since they obviously wouldn't be voting for him if they thought that). It's just... odd.

Further analysis is required.

Glork: yes?

[Erg0]

Like I said, I doubt you'll die tonight unless you're able to get a guilty result on the non-random killer. Unless the scum are the non-random ones, I suspect that you won't be able to do this. A cult with a non-random NK would make this game rather wacky, I think.

[Erg0]

Yeah, 20 minutes is plenty of time to wait for a defence there, Glork. I'll assume that was a bad joke and post regardless.

The missing link in my Flay progression is this post:

I'd be ok with voting for BMQ (obv), distad, or maybe Xdaamno today. I'm not really seeing the Flay thing at all.

That was the point at which I indicated that I was ok with Flay's defence.

Also, I FoSed distad (with a case) quite a while ago, before you expressed a strong suspicion of him. If anything, you jumped onto my wagon, rather than vice versa.

I also pushed Xdaamno a hell of a lot harder than you did.

Hitting preview reveals more posts, so I guess I'm not wasting my time.

Tag fixed - Stoofer

[Erg0]

Keep in mind, people, that if there is a cult in this game, there must almost necessarily be a Vigilante. I have no idea why people are even suggesting "Cult with a nonrandom kill," because that seems horribly broken.

The only reason that I raised the idea was to dismiss it as a possibility. I think that it's salient to distad's claim, and especially to the idea that he's going to die tonight no matter what. We don't want to depend too much on the NK telling us whether he's claiming truthfully or not.

I realised that I misinterpreted your question on Flay slightly in my haste to post - I take it you were questioning the phrase "throughout the day" in particular. Although I FoSed him earlier, it was only really intended to indicate a faint suspicion, and it was only his lack of response that caused me to mention it a second time. You conveniently omitted the following post, which was right after the second one you quoted:

Incidentally, the attempt to start a wagon on Flay while he's V/LA is noted.

I think that adequately illustrates that I wasn't sold on the wagon at the time.

Also, you never answered this question:

Since nobody else asked...

Glork: why is BMQ a bad lynch today?

[Erg0]

Glork: I wasn't talking about VitR, I was talking about you. I'm guessing this is the post you're talking about from you:

You've been 0 for 2 so far, Distad. Wanna try again?

It's worth noting that one of the votes you're talking about was you. This struck me as pretty OMGUSy and, given the tone of your posts in that part of the game, not entirely serious. VitR didn't give any more information besides quoting your post. I was the only person who actually made a decent case against distad, apparently decent enough that you felt it warranted a vote.

On Xdaamno, I was doing what I said I wanted to do: applying pressure. Early in the day, I think it was a decent place to put a vote. I'll admit that my BMQ vote was a poor one, it was mainly based on the FoS I had on him, and when I looked back I could see that it wasn't a good case, which is why I removed my vote.

Now please give it a rest, I'd rather be spending my time looking for scum instead of wasting it defending a non-wagon.

"Because I said so" is not a valid reason this close to the deadline.

[Erg0]

"Because I said so" is not a valid reason this close to the deadline.

It's going to have to be. Thou shalt not go fishing!! D:<

Asking for the reason that you hold a particular opinion is not fishing. Calling it fishing is dropping an unnecessary breadcrumb. If you're a power role trying to stay hidden you could at least try to cover it with some logic - "because I said so" is hardly subtle.

[Erg0]

Glork/Erg0 is very interesting. What makes you so sure it's a non-wagon, Erg0?

That there's only one vote on me despite all of Glork's cajoling would be the primary reason.

[Erg0]

You might want to figure that out. Posting quotes without commentary does not a case make, and I actually believe that my position is correct with regard to the fishing comment.

[Erg0]

Clearly I'm missing something here. If you're implying that you've figured out something about Glork's role, it's not really relevant to a vote on me unless it's something that would allow him to know both BMQ's alignment and mine. I think my question was perfectly legitimate, and it's not like I'm voting for Glork based on his answer. I just don't agree with his methods.

[Erg0]

I think I know why, but that still doesn't explain why you're voting for me.

[Erg0]

"Stop fishing" is just as bad as "because I said so". It's such an obvious breadcrumb that you might as well hang out a sign. My point is that if Glork really wanted me not to press him on the matter then his best response would have been to provide a reason, even if it was a fabricated one.

Glork is a good enough player that I have a hard time believing that such an obvious breadcrumb was any kind of accident. I think that he was fully aware of what he was implying with that comment, and you'd have to be some kind of idiot not to see such an unsubtle hint. Whether I pressed him on it or not, you can be sure that it would be seen by everyone who was paying attention in the slightest.

Would you buy it if I'd just said "don't vote for me, but I can't tell you why"?

[Erg0]

I don't want to vote just yet because I'm still a little taken aback by today's events and I'm worried I'm just being subconsciously OMGUSy after that last exchange. That said, I'm really disliking Simenon's play right now. He's been on every major wagon today, and his sudden switch from being certain that BMQ is scum to being certain that he's town based on one vague hint from Glork just sits very wrongly with me. I'll admit that there's a certain element of self-preservation in this because I'd obviously rather lynch anyone other than myself.

I wanted to flag this now because I likely won't have a chance to re-read properly until this afternoon my time, and I know that all you North American folks will be in bed then. Unless I see something significant in the meantime, that's where my vote's going.

[Erg0]

I had just read that bit, actually, so glrok's post was new to me.

Horrible excuse, but that's just it.

Whether I pressed him on it or not, you can be sure that it would be seen by everyone who was paying attention in the slightest.

If it is a breadcrumb for a power role, well, nobody saw it when glrok originally said "don't consider voting bmq".

If that original statement was a breadcrumb then it was a lousy one, because it was s,mack bang in the middle of a bunch of posts with unsupportd statements and there was no indication that it should be given any more weight than all of the other stuff Glork was saying.

If it's not a breadcrumb, it just shows how serious glrok is about not lynching bmq, so there is something that both of us aren't seeing and glrok doesn't want to tell anyway. As you said, he's a good player, so he must have found something good.

If it's that good then now is the time to tell us all what it is. Holding onto it while BMQ is lynched isn't going to do the town a lick of good.

That was the point of my original question.

[Erg0]

The reason I was taken aback was that I went to bed last night thinking that I would need to spend today looking for somewhere to put my vote. Instead, I've had to spend my entire morning defending against Glork's accusations. I'm fully aware of how well-respected Glork is around here, and how much sway he has over the opinions of others. I haven't been lynched on this site since my first Newbie game (in March), so I'm not used to having to play defence quite so strongly and yes, it unsettled me a bit being blindsided like that.

On the other hand, this is the second time you've voted for me based on the contents of a single post. I don't like that kind of thing very much.

[Erg0]

I can only go off what you post, if there's only one post quoted with your vote then I'll assume that's all you're using.

Post 369:

Like I said, I doubt you'll die tonight unless you're able to get a guilty result on the non-random killer. Unless the scum are the non-random ones, I suspect that you won't be able to do this. A cult with a non-random NK would make this game rather wacky, I think.

What's wrong with that post?

[Erg0]

I'm talking about whether the "random" NK will be on distad because of his claim. The non-random killer(s) have already set their list, so there's no better chance of them killing distad than anyone else tonight. The comment was made in response to this post from distad:

yeah, because unless a doctor SOMEHOW managed to protect me tonight, I anticipate being dead tomorrow, so why not a "poor me"?

He's clearly implying that he thinks that the "random" kill will be on him. That was the context in which I made the comment.

[Erg0]

Not surprisingly, I agree. Might as well make it official, though I'm almost certainly pissing in the wind here.

Vote: Simenon

I think this has been pretty well explored, and in re-reading it looks to me like he's just pointed fingers elsewhere until a better target to presented itself, rather than responding to the case against him.

[Erg0]

I'll put that another way: you've responded with the fewest words possible while always trying to keep the focus on the wagon du jour. This seems to have been quite effective at keeping people from pushing you too hard until they find someone else that's louder and a more obvious target.

[Erg0]

Nah, I'm sticking with that. Taking your behaviour today as an aggregate, you have jumped your vote all over with thin reasoning, but have avoided serious suspicion up until now. It looks to me like this is a result of playing aggressively and keeping yourself in a position where there is always at least one player with more pressure on them than you. The only people who have voted you in recent times are those you've voted yourself, because they're the ones that have had their attention forced in your direction. You've done it skilfully, but that's what it is.

[Erg0]

I'm guessing most everyone is in bed by now, so I expect that's it for me. I'm not going to claim on the off chance that the deadline is extended and I get a decent opportunity to talk my way out of this. Failing that, go town!

[Erg0]

Maybe you're just lucky, then. I couldn't say that Happy Normal gave me enough of a meta on you to be relied upon.

"I'm not that good" isn't the best defence I ever heard, btw.

[Erg0]

I never said there was a connection, and I never said that I thought that was a salient point. I'm not sure what you're trying to prove here.

[Erg0]

The value of this meta is dimished by the fact that you pointed it out yourself. This is similar to the point you raised earlier about Glork's breadcrumb - there's a big difference between saying "here's a good meta on him" and "here's a good meta on me".

[Erg0]

Anyone who thinks that it works as a meta can use it, but I don't see it as valid. As you say, it's open for all to see.

[Erg0]

Because it takes more than one game to make a meta. Just because you acted a particular way in one game as scum doesn't mean you'll do the same in every subsequent game. You bussed your Godfather to a deadline lynch in that game, do you do that every time you're scum?

[Erg0]

You're right, and I kind of agree with your point, but there's also more to it than just the length of his posts. I know he always plays that way, it just seems to have been particularly effective in this game at keeping the attention diverted elsewhere. Looking back on the day as a whole just made me realise that only the people he's specifically targeted have really gone after him, and I don't think it can all be OMGUS.

[Erg0]

I should also mention that I'm concerned about Glork too now that I look back at the posts he was quoting with a more dispassionate eye. For instance, one of the posts he quoted to support his claim that I contradicted myself regarding Flay was this one:

Hmmm... persuasive as that was, I'm going to say no. I would like to see Flay respond to VitR's original post though, since I still have an FoS resting on him pending that response.

Looks like I'm suspicious of Flay, right? Try going here and reading the next four posts. To me, that puts an entirely different spin on things.

[Erg0]

I'll also point out that doing nothing at this point will most likely mean that I'm dead, since the third vote on Sim came after the third vote on me. I really need to learn to think of everything at the same time when I post.

[Erg0]

Well that was... eventful. I really hate it when my first suspicion is right and my last suspicion is wrong. It's a damn good thing that the "random" killer hit scum last night, or we'd quite possibly be in LyLo today. I think Xdaamno's "oh noes, I missed the deadline" bit would have got him in some hot water anyway, though.

Speaking of the random killer, either he got his kill choice in really fast or there's more to the random tag than I'd originally thought. I suppose he could be sending them in prior to the night phase or something like that. Either way, I think there may be more to the random kill than meets the eye.

Of the remaining people, pretty much everyone I suspected is now dead, which isn't much help. I still don't like Nocmen's throw-in vote on me yesterday - it strikes me as either very opportunistic or very unimaginative, and could well have led to me being lynched if not for the later switches. CES was absent at the deadline, and I'd like some input from him. Everyone else is roughly level in my eyes at this moment except distad, whose claim I'll trust for today unless I have reason to change my mind.

I'm not sure that there's much to learn from the wagons from my perspective. I really wish that Glork hadn't chosen the last moment to divert attention away from the people that had been under fire all day, because it really devalues the information gained from the final two wagons (for me, at least).

I'm going to take at least a 24 hour break from this game to catch my breath and catch up elsewhere.

[Erg0]

Ok, time to start the analysis. I introduced this same post in Calvin & Hobbes with "let's get methodical" so I suppose it fits here.

My favourite thing to do after the first scum dies is to go back and catalogue all of their interactions with other players over the course of the game. I've done this in 3 or 4 games previously and it's been reasonably reliable in my experience. This is what I found for Xdaamno:

BrianMcQueso
37: Minor criticism
149: Vague semi-criticism for being "rather unhinged"
151: Agrees with Seol's case on BMQ
299: Disagrees with BMQ wagon (after being prompted for comment)
309: Prefers BMQ lynch to Flay lynch, but says both are shaky/iffy

Cogito Ergo Sum
erm... nope.

distad
89: Criticises for mafia watcher suggestion
149: Calls vig speculation "flat-out wrong". "Not sure what scum would benifet from pointing this out in the first place, however, so IGMEOY."
248: Agrees with VitR's FoS on distad, but says he's more interested in Glork
299: Says distad is "going up on my scumdar a little". Quotes my case on him (distad).
333: "As much as distad is hovering near the top of my scum list, I'm inclined to believe his claim; based on the fact he said 'He'd probably be nightkilled' (Any scum would probably be much more careful when they say things like that, due to the implications of non-methodical scum)."

Mr. Flay
92: Minor criticism
201: Kinda random mention of Flay wagon in a post where he's responding to me (not sure what to make of this)

Nocmen
354: Asks for results of re-read and when he started to look at VitR

VitaminR (replaced ojpower)
86: Rules correction (to ojpower)
149: responds to VitR calling him over-cautious (mea culpa defence)
349: Vote: VitR just before deadline (1st and only vote for Day 1)
354: Doesn't feel need to respond to VitR's defence

There are a couple of trends I see here. Xdaamno never so much as mentions CES in the whole game, and only talks to Nocmen once, which makes it difficult to get any read on them. distad probably looks worst out of this because Xdaamno repeatedly talks about being suspicious of him, he ends up coming off as an apologist. His VitR vote was also kind of odd because he never really mentions him previously, and there was little chance in it resulting in a lynch (in my opinion) - this may have been an attempt to distract people from another wagon, though.

Not ready to draw conclusions yet, the second instalment will be other people's posts on Xdaamno.

[Erg0]

Just wanted to pop in and say that I'm still doing my re-read on Xdaamno - just haven't had enough spare time over the last few days to finish it. I'll have a second post, and probably a vote, tomorrow.

[Erg0]

distad: "worst" is a relative term - Xdaamno talked about you specifically as being scummy a lot (relative to others), and then made a sudden backdown, based on what I see as an iffy reason, when you claimed. I'm only looking at a subset of the evidence here, and I'm not sure if it's really that useful in the end (see below).

Here's a catalogue of mentions of Xdaamno by others in their posts.

BrianMcQueso
222: Doesn't see Xdaamno's day-starting comment as a scumtell, bit of a summary (some of which misses the point, IMO). Points out that distad was also surprised.
412: Puts Xdaamno as "basic townie" in roundup post.

Cogito Ergo Sum
175: Asks Glork to get off Xdaamno and onto BMQ (early day 1 wagons)
177: In response to Glork's comment that he'd lynch CES "a dozen times over" before BMQ: "Now why do you want to lynch me all of a sudden? Or do you mean Xdaamno?" (I don't really see how he could think that Glork was talking to Xdaamno here).
203: Says again he thought Glork was referring to Xdaamno. Says Xdaamno's "burden of proof" comment re: CES not jumping on the Flay wagon is wrong (I never quite got what Xdaamno meant by this).

distad
192: Votes Glork for voting Xdaamno, thinks Xdaamno's surprise was genuine.
233: Raises a D0 post by Xdaamno re: Mafia watchers as a possible reason for Flay's "stop claiming" post.

Mr. Flay
240: More or less confirms distad's theory in 233 that he was responding to Xdaamno D0.

Nocmen
Nothing I can see.

VitaminR (replaced ojpower)
113: Calls Xdaamno's cautious suspicion of LML scummy.
195: Passing mention of Xdaamno in relation to Flay's D0 comment on claims.
248: Lists Xdaamno as "mildly scummy" (with distad & BMQ) in a roundup post.
351: Doesn't like Xdaamno vote on him without reasoning.
357: Accepts Xdaamno's reasoning based on ojpower's posting.

Unfortunately a majority of the talk about Xdaamno on Day 1 was from Glork, Sim and me, and there's nothing particularly dynamite here as far as I can see. I don't really like BMQ's 222, which offers a slightly off-point defence of Xdaamno's early "surprised" post and drags distad into the picture for doing the same thing. VitR kind of vaguely mentions him as scummy without follow-up, but it's pretty circumstantial. distad defends the "surprise" scumtell, but that seems too obvious a link to be significant. All in all it's a bit of a muddle. I'm starting to think that this form of analysis works better when the scum dies Night 2 instead of Night 1 (or at least when the people with the most interactions aren't dead or me). Nocmen and CES barely had any crossover with Xdaamno at all, probably due to the fact that both were missing for sizeable chunks of Day 1.

If I were to vote as I usually would, based solely on these criteria, I'd probably vote for distad right now. I don't think that's a good idea at this point based on his claim, though I'm definitely more sceptical of that than I originally was.

One thing that's sticking in my head is Xdaamno's vote on VitR at the end of the day. I don't like the way he made his only vote at deadline without immediate justification, but then when Nocmen followed Xdaamno asked when he started suspecting VitR. I suspect that he was either trying to discourage others from jumping on the wagon, or cautioning his buddy against an obviously wagony vote. I believe that either Nocmen or VitR is likely to be scum, and I generally like Nocmen less than VitR so far.

Vote: Nocmen

[Erg0]

So you think it could be either me or VitR, and I guess the vote is just because I voted for you right near the end yesterday? And thats after you said you would want to vote for distad based on the info from your reread.

Vote: Erg0

, half of this being an OMGUS, half of this being for what problems were pointed out against you near the end of yesterday, and half being for voting me for what I feel is you just trying to get a vote on me in any way possible.

Well, I had it down to two people and I liked your play yesterday less than VitR's overall. I did say that the evidence pointed towards distad as the likeliest suspect in my eyes, but I've well and truly explained my reasons for not voting him today. I doubt that you're disagreeing with me on that point, you just seem to want something to argue about.

As for my "problems" at the end of yesterday, it seems to me that the wagon on me came about in no small part due to Glork's "breadcrumb" on BMQ, which proved to be utter BS as I suspected. I didn't even get a second vote placed on me until after that exchange, at which point I believe a number of people thought that Glork was dropping hints towards some sort of special knowledge. As has now been proven, he did not possess any such knowledge. The fact that you're persisting with this case today, despite the main pillar having crumbled, just gives me more cause to doubt your motives.

[Erg0]

Being dead doesn't make them right. As I said before, Glork effectively lied to gain the support of Simenon. If you read the sequence of posts again, it seems (to me, at least) that Glork's "breadcrumbing" was what persuaded Simenon to vote for me. Personally, I thought that was pretty weak reasoning.

BMQ, I don't like the way you're riding Sim and Glork's coattails here rather than constructing your own case. By the same logic, if I'd been lynched yesterday then you probably would have hanged Sim today and been equally wrong.

[Erg0]

I wasn't accusing you of anything regarding Simenon, I was voting for him yesterday too. I'm just saying that if I was lynched then the same logic would have applied to Sim today (i.e. he was suspected by a dead townie), and it would have been wrong for him as it is for me.

[Erg0]

This game needs more posting.

distad, I think there's much point in you telling us your intended investigation target - it's not really going to prove anything one way or the other.

[Erg0]

EBWOP: I*don't* think there's much point

[Erg0]

I don't like Flay's play today, it looks to me like he maybe had a gambit in mind, but realised as everyone else posted that the town wasn't going to buy it and thus dropped the whole thing. Even if distad proves to be a sane cop, his investigation result doesn't preclude Flay from being an SK.

I'm also generally displeased with the tentativeness being shown today. I actually like Nocmen slightly more for the fact that he has at least put his vote on the person he says he finds most suspicious (he's still scum, though). A number of other people seem more interested in waiting it out and seeing what everyone else wants to do, which I never like.

[Erg0]

Don't look at me, I'm trying my best. Appeal to emotion noted, btw.

[Erg0]

Nocmen, though. Anyone who perked up at my mention of lynch-or-lose (which is actually fairly unlikely, since it presupposes that both the Lynch today and both Nightkills will miss scum, out of seven chances) might be scum, and Nocmen's been pushing for "vote early, vote often" ever since that post of mine.

Minor point: most likely, only the SK's kill needs to miss scum tonight (since the mafia won't kill themselves), so one mislynch + one SK kill on a townie = lose if we've got 2 mafia left (and my math is right). It may not be as unlikely as you think.

Having said that, if we have 2 scum and an SK then we've got a 3 in 7 chance of lynching scum today, so it's not inevitable by any means.

[Erg0]

EBWOP: For clarity's sake, that last sentence should read "if we have 2

mafia

and an SK then we've got a 3 in 7 chance of lynching scum today".

[Erg0]

I still like my vote on Nocmen. I also like the fact that distad followed up on his suspicions with a vote without having to be pushed to do so. I don't like the idea that we may end up with another last minute rush like last time (especially since I probably won't be online all day on deadline the way I was last time) so I'd like to see people state their preferred deadline targets as soon as possible.

[Erg0]

Yay! Progress!

I'd like to get

something

out of CES before the day ends. We're going to have a hell of a time figuring him out if he's still alive tomorrow.

[Erg0]

Also, I notice that we haven't heard from Nocmen in a while.

Mod

can you please prod Nocmen and CES?

[Erg0]

/third

[Erg0]

Wow, that was opportune.

[Erg0]

I think I agree with your basic premise. One question: who did you block last night?

[Erg0]

EBWOP: Don't mention who you blocked on Night 1 or 2 until I have a chance to comment on your Night 3 choice. I'm working on a theory that I think may lead us to the SK, but I need to make sure that the information is revealed in the correct order and by the correct people.

[Erg0]

I'll talk about the SK thing in a bit, but I have another question first:

BMQ, am I right in saying that you blocked Simenon night 1?

[Erg0]

I'm not quite that good - I'm the tracker, I saw you do it.

One final question: did you block me night 2?

[Erg0]

Ok, in that case I'm about 90% sure that Flay is the SK. I have results on two living players that eliminate them from consideration, you on night 1 and someone else on night 3. On night 2 I attempted to track Flay - the mod PM said that I tried but got no result. At first I thought that either he didn't do anything or I was blocked, but looking at the PM again now I think it's more likely that my attempt actually failed.

In other words, I suspect that the SK's random nature renders him immune to methodical investigation. Unless somebody else did something on night 2 to screw with my result, I think Flay's our man.

Based on my suspicions, I think we need to revise the plan. If the SK is immune to methodical investigations, he may also be immune to methodical blocks, meaning that BMQ's idea wouldn't work. The other thought I had is that all of these town power roles make me question the idea that there are only two scum. The single NK last night seems to indicate that (along with the fact that BMQ blocked a dead guy), but if there is one scum left and something screwy happened to stop their kill last night then we're in LyLo. After the way Mini 470 ended I've become very wary of easing up the scumhunting on the second last day of the game.

In conclusion:

Vote: Mr. Flay

[Erg0]

"Not mafia or cult" would be a correct result for an SK.

I probably won't say who I tracked last night unless I need to (or everyone wants me to), just in case I'm wrong about Flay. BMQ's block on Sim was harmless because he'd claimed and Sim was dead, but this is info on a living player.

Interesting observation regarding the methodical kill. That would be kind of a weird mechanic though, I'd think it would be more likely for the first poster to be killed by the random killer rather than the methodical one(s).

[Erg0]

If we go with option 1 then the SK is the other person that I haven't tracked yet, but I really think it's more likely to be Flay. I need to think through whether it's a good idea to divulge tonight's target, but you'll probably figure it out soon enough if we continue this discussion.

I think that CES's actions make it unlikely that he's the SK (his hammer would have meant certain death today if Nocmen was telling the truth), but if we do have a scum left alive then I wouldn't be surprised if it was him. I don't think he's today's lynch, though.

[Erg0]

I thought you'd work that out before long - yes, I targeted CES. He didn't target VitR, so that just leaves you and Flay as the possible SKs.

I won't tell you whether he went anywhere unless he wants me to do so (or I have reason to believe it's necessary). I tracked Flay on night 2, btw - I haven't said who I'm tracking tonight.

I have a theory on how we could still have mafia alive despite the lack of methodical kill last night. In fact, I have two theories but I'm not sure if either holds water. I think that hunting the SK is the way to go for now, because we're at least certain that he exists.

[Erg0]

I won't tell you

whether he went anywhere

unless he wants me to do so (or I have reason to believe it's necessary).

Bolded for emphasis.

[Erg0]

I agree with pretty much all of that, particularly the part about the SK. I also thought it was most likely that the SK was sending in kills during the day, especially considering that we had a gap of several hours between the hammer and the night scene on day 2. I mentioned on Day 1 that I didn't think distad was an SK target, and I still believe that.

Eagerly awaiting Flay's theory.

[Erg0]

I don't recall anyone claiming doctor. Unless I'm having serious memory issues, we had no idea that Glork was the doc until he died.

I also thought it was most likely that the SK was sending in kills during the day, especially considering that we had a gap of several hours between the hammer and the night scene on day 2.

Or, the moderator wasn't around to post the nightscene.

I'm fairly sure that was the reason for the wait, my point was that there was time between the lynch and the night scene for the SK to send in a kill, hence the reason for night being so short.

Both groups targeting the same person last night was one thought I had (though I'd half-expect to see some reflection in the flavour to indicate that). We don't actually know what CES's ability is, so it's also possible that he had something to do with it.

Flay's vote for me is completely OMGUS. I've proved that I am a tracker, at worst I'm guilty of making a bad case on him. If Flay is sure he's not the SK then he should be voting for distad, since he's the only remaining SK suspect.

I tend to agree that the mafia probably have one or powers at their disposal. Given that all we got on Nocmen and Xdaamno was "Mafia" it's hard to know whether they had special abilities.

Flay: Why do you think I wasn't able to track you on night 2?

[Erg0]

Works for me (I tracked you to distad night 3). That really just leaves distad and Flay without alibis.

I still want to lynch Flay today. As I mentioned earlier, my lack of result on him night 2 makes me think that there's a possibility that a roleblock would fail. I think distad is going too far in trying to hedge his bets, which makes me wonder, but CES seems to think his claim works so I'll give him a pass. It has to be Flay today, I think.

[Erg0]

I don't think it really helps or hinders us either way, since all of our choices are set in stone anyway (except for the SK, who I believe we've caught already).

[Erg0]

Can anyone tell me why we haven't lynched Flay yet?

And this isn't one of those "Lynch that guy kthxbai" posts. I genuinely want to know.

[Erg0]

Seriously, everyone else has an alibi. Either it's you or it's distad. It's possible that the sleepwalker thing is some kind of bizarre cover for your real role and that you're genuinely unaware that you're killing, but the fact is that there's nobody else that it could be, unless it's distad. His lack of vote is particularly confusing to me.

Also, specifically what are you accusing me of? You seem to be saying that I'm tracker mafia, but that wouldn't clear you as the SK in the least. If there are mafia remaining they're going to be just as interested in getting rid of the SK at this point.

[Erg0]

What makes you think that CES in particular is naive? He and distad have both had all innocent results haven't they?

Given that most of our actions are pre-determined, there's probably very little danger in stating your next target. Even if we don't get the SK today, I can't think of anything that he could do with the information to turn it to his advantage.

[Erg0]

That's kind of unfortunate, because my next target's distad.

From my perspective we should definitely lynch today. If we do still have two killers and there isn't a crosskill tonight then it'll be one townie, one SK and one mafia tomorrow. As CES said, a no lynch relinquishes control of the game.

I don't know why you didn't get a result on me N2. What did it say, exactly? Presumably you didn't get blocked unless it was by Mafia, so perhaps my lack of a choice is confounding things? Have you tracked a Townie yet?

Paraphrasing, my PM said I attempted to track you but got no result. My two other actions have been on BMQ and CES, both of whom gave me a result along the lines of "You tracked X to Y". The wording of the two results varies slightly between night 1 and night 3, which indicates to me that Stoof was not too concerned about the exact wording of those PMs. The Night 2 PM, however, states very precisely that I tried and failed. I would expect that tracking a townie would give me a result saying that they went nowhere, or did not target anyone.

I may be reading too much into the wording, but aside from this I have irrefutable proof that CES and BMQ did not kill the SK targets on the nights I tracked them. CES vouches for distad's claim, so you're number 1 on my list of suspects, with a big gap to number 2. The possible tracking immunity is just a flavour-related footnote to the main case.

[Erg0]

Wow, everybody loves me!

[Erg0]

Actually, you're right. My trust of BMQ only goes as far as him not being the SK because I saw him target Sim Night 1. I've only really been hunting the SK today, since we don't really know whether there are any mafia left.

[Erg0]

Another option is that one or more people are actually lying about their roles. I've shown that I'm actually tracking people, but for BMQ and CES I can only be sure of the people they targeted, not what their actual abilities are.

It does all add up at the moment though, so I'd actually be mildly surprised if we need another day now that Flay's lynched. Nothing in the claims explains the lack of kill from the mafia last night, and the setup all but rules out the possibility that they chose not to make a kill. Unless there's something "unconventional" in the setup, I really don't think that we have any mafia left.

[Erg0]

Have

we had some blocks? I believe BMQ's only revealed that he blocked Sim and VitR, both of whom were townies.

I had assumed that the mafia had to send in a list of kills at the start of the game. I think the big question is: if there are still scum about, what happened to their kill last night?

Yes, the "one or more" is intended to cover the scenario where we have two scum left (though that seems incredibly unlikely to me).

Also, be wary of assuming to much about CES. All we know for sure is that he targeted you last night and you didn't die. Then again, nobody else did either (except the SK's target) and there's no obvious explanation as to why.

[Erg0]

Actually, I just twigged to what you were saying about BMQ. You think the mafia may not have killed because they targeted VitR along with the SK?

[Erg0]

I cannot

believe

I fell for that.

Despite BMQ's "block" I got a result for distad last night, tracking him to me. Thanks to BMQ teasing all of the night choices out of everyone yesterday, I now have no way of proving that I'm telling the truth.

We've almost certainly got a single (non-killing?) mafiate left, or we wouldn't be having this conversation.

2+2=

Vote: Brian McQueso

[Erg0]

Jeesh. Way to wait for a response, guys.

It hadn't occurred to you that maybe BMQ does something other than block?

[Erg0]

You people are so narrow minded.

[Erg0]

It just occurred to me... Lots of confusion is possible in a game feating Erg0 and Cogito

Ergo

Sum...

I noticed that shortly after I joined the site, and considered re-registering under a different name, but once I realised that everyone referred to him as CES I figured there wasn't likely to be too much confusion.

[Erg0]

The initial draft of my first post on Day 4:

Ok, here's what I think happened.
...
...
(runs away)

Points of Mild Interest:

I basically took a gamble on BMQ blocking someone other than me after Flay (a 2 in 3 chance) last night, and I lost. There were a few other options, but they all relied too much on other people's choices for my taste.

In case nobody figured it out, the

real

reason that I was sure Flay was the SK was the fact that he didn't die from our NK on N3. The lack of tracking result on N2 contributed, but I didn't lock him in 'til D4.

I was also really surprised that I wasn't under more suspicion D2 after coming so close to being lynched D1. I did have a counter-argument (Glork's breadcrumb to nothing) but I actually got more pressure from Nocmen than anyone in the town.

Speaking of Nocmen, I was thinking that he suffered some rotten luck with CES's hammer, but given what the choices would have been that night it may not have been as much of a blow as I initially thought. I'm really glad that the scum got a fakeclaim, given that the game more or less turned into a claimfest on D4. I'm not sure if that's an inevitable result of this setup, but it's always going to be a danger if a lot of power roles are around at the end.

I majorly underestimated the impact of the scum not being able to night talk. Our original plan was for Xdaamno to use the tracker fakeclaim, and we didn't have much of a contingency in place if things went wrong. I was expecting Nocmen to use the full tracker claim D2 when he got to lynch-1, but I'm kind of glad he didn't because I probably would have been in trouble without it.

This was my first real game as scum (Open 33 doesn't count), so I was kind of feeling my way along, as Glork obviously saw. I'm not overly thrilled with my own play in this one, though I did feel that I was still in with a shot at the end if not for the roleblock. I've got a decent record of talking my way out of lynches when all other things are equal, so I'd like to think that with distad dead I could have swung BMQ or CES to my side.

Oh, and this is the first time I've been lynched since my first newbie game, back in March. Damn you all.

Good game town, I feel that if we'd won it would have been more on luck than skill.

I just looked through the lists and realised that Flay was methodical. And he would have killed distad N4. Ack.

[Erg0]

I never thought I had a real chance of convincing the town that anyone other than Flay was the SK. With CES confirming your flavour I think it's more likely that I would have been lynched instead. Also, I thought that Flay actually was making kill choices on the fly and I figured I'd be looking like a juicy target by that stage since he'd want to kill scum.

[Erg0]

Plus a tracker who ended up fingering me by virtue of not getting a result...I think Stoof played "the Mod shall not lie to the players" a little too literally here.

You may have missed it above, but it was really the no-kill on N3 that made me sure it was you. I initially took the lack of result as a sign that you were a townie or that Xdaamno was blocked.

I had you down next to CES on my list of possible SKs on day 2, but I honestly couldn't tell you why. I thought i had a point against you on day 1, but looking back I can't see it. I suspect that I just found you one of the least pro-town players of the group that I knew weren't mafia. Of course, I had eliminated BMQ as a suspect by that stage, so I didn't have too many people to choose from.

[Erg0]

There were Townies in this game?

[Erg0]

Ergo, do you realize that even if distad had been naive too, we could've no-lynched to discover that BMQ really was a roleblocker? A better idea would've been accusing BMQ of being a mafia blocker, most likely. I know I was still suspicious of BMQ after the latest lack of kill.

I was planning on accusing BMQ of being a mafia framer once the guilty result came in from you and distad. You lynched me while I was asleep, though.

I agree that it was a weak argument, but i was already in my worst case scenario so I thought it was worth a shot. I figured playing dumb would get me lynched just as fast.