I want proof for this before I mindlessly hop onto the wagon!Incognito wrote:Vote: eldarad
Sup?
My last two opening votes in games have landed on scum. Do you feel lucky?
Mini 692: Boost Mafia (Game Over!)
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And how would we know whether or not you fall in category 3?Electra wrote: 3) Mafia - if we boost them, they probably get things like investigation immunity or an extra night kill, or a NK that overrides doc/boosted NK immunity
So obviously, boosting Mafia is very bad and we should avoid doing it.
So to try to aid this, I'm going to put myself up for being boosted, and also claim-ish.
[..]
So that's my case, do what you want with it.
No.sthar8 wrote:Do you feel that massclaim might be a viable strategy at this time?-
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That's a fair point.eldarad wrote:And, as Electra said, for a scum to make that leap of faith about the existence or otherwise of boostable vanilla townies, or whatever, is pause for thought.Boost: Electra.
I'm not sure why ILord and RR are talking about guilties and innocents, when Electra's claim clearly said she'll get "information about the town", which I'd guess would be things like "There's X scum in the town" or "there are Y vanillas". Nothing she said suggested it's a cop investigation.
Skillit's last post reads like back-pedaling from a fairly contrived attack on Electra.unvote, vote: Skillit
And while I'm at itBoost: eldarad, I liked what he's said so far.-
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Could you elaborate?springlullaby wrote: 2. To explain my vote on TDC, I think his vote on skillit is scummy because he evokes the motive 'looks like backpedalling', but I don't see evidence to that.
Which is it, do you think he wasn't attacking Electra in the first place, or do you think he's standing by his attack?-
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I read it as a real attack, yes.Incognito wrote:Oh and btw, Skillit has now reached L-2. I think sthar8, Electra, and to a lesser extent TDC should at least justify why they feel their votes are on the best wagon at this current time. [..] TDC touched on a more minor point about Skillit's backtracking but hasn't engaged in conversation with him or commented on whether he thinks Skillit really was joking around or not.
He then posted a couple of things about the 4v3 issue, to finally come to the conclusion that it wasn't indicative of Electra's alignment anyway.
I found that - wait for it -odd. Anyway, that's what I meant with the backpedalling, why waltz the issue out like that if you don't think it's telling? I don't buy that it was an important theory issue whether mafia can have roles or not.
I agree it's not a particularly strong case, but the best I saw at the time. (And I still don't see a better one).
I assume that by mentioning the L-2 you're trying to say that this is dangerous or whatever, but I don't think that skillit is in immediate danger of being lynched right now.
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If it was just your judgement, how can you call other people scummy for having a different judgement?springlullaby wrote:I may be wrong on this but my leaning is that Skillit's 'odd post' wasn't an attack - see him mentioning the joke at the end of the post; this is a judment call, mine.
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sthar8: I'm wondering. Did you really think that a majority of people might be willing to go for an early Day 1 mass claim?
Seems to make little sense to suggest it (and imply you know more than most by doing so) without being sort of confident that it could actually happen.
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Do you think it's more damning that he answered in place of others, or how he excused it?Raging Rabbit wrote:Maybe the right word is more guiltridden than panicky, it sounds to me like "damn, made a mistake. Guess I'll apologize it away". The way he appears to really kick himself for appearing suspicious stinks of guilt to me.
If it's the latter (and that seems to be the case), how would a response have looked like that's less suspicious?-
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Don't know about you, but I didn't really take much out of the Incognito/springlullaby exchange.
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I don't really understand the Crazy case. Could anyone clue me in?
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I'd like to read this.Skillit wrote:I'm not done here, I will be back in around 3 hrs, this is just what i had typed up before I got called to go to work for a short shift.
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I remember you saying you'll boost Electra later on. Has this changed, or do you think that we have "quite the inelegant set-up"/your theory is wrong?iLord wrote:Ah okay. My theory could be altered to allow for Electra, but that would result in quite the inelegant set-up.
I actually think my theory is closely related to yours except for the fact that may role would disprove yours.-
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I'm astonished that none of the four Crazy voters bothered to explain the case on him.
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RR: I'm confused.. do you still think your point on sthar is strong?
How much of your iLord vote is based on the apparent contradiction, and how much on him not being the main propagator of the Incognito case? (I'm asking because I don't really see where you're going with the latter, iLord's position on the Incognito-springlullaby exchange has been quite clear)-
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I didn't understand it when I asked, so obviously this didn't change when nobody explained it.Jahudo wrote:You previously said you didn’t understand the case on Crazy and asked to be clued in. Did the lack of a response make you think about the legitimacy of the case?
I share iLord's feelings towards Electra's case. I, too, see Crazy genuinely bored.Jahudo wrote:What about the response you got after you asked again?
Now, I think I've asked this before, but where did Crazy make any assumption about Electra's "information"? RR and iLord where the people talking about cop investigations.eldarad wrote:For me it was a mixture of buddying and lurking, I guess.
Also the assumption about Electra's "information" and the fact that SL completely ignored Crazy borrowing my opinion, but chewed Incog for doing it, which - at the time - suggested to me that there might be a SL-Crazy link.
I'm not convinced that is true anymore, but I am still a bit concerned about Crazy's lack of activity and her comparative lack of opinions...
The second reason seems to be a better reason to vote for springlullaby than for Crazy to me.
I still think it's pretty weak.Jahudo wrote:Also what do you think about the Crazy case now?
I'm not quite sure what to think about that, though. The wagon was on four votes for a pretty long time, yet none of the voters seemed really interested to push it any further.-
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Incognito: I have sifted through the two games of sl you mentioned (and a few more of her). I can see the parallel with R-1000, but I don't really see it with Nice Shot. The other games (town and scum) where fairly clean (and lurky) from her. I would have a better feeling about this meta read if there was more data (or if I understood where you think Nice Shot is comparable with this game, could you elaborate?)
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Guardian: I know you aren't sl, but would you address this anyway? Seems odd she would replace out just when Incognito brought that up.
I get sick of repeating this all the time, but Electra never claimed to have "investigation benefits". I understand her claim as passive "the mod will give me some information" thing.Guardian wrote:I am unsure what to make of Electra. Honestly I do think her post would be easy for scum to do, and if there are no vanilla roles like Electra claimed to have -- that is not a problem. It is in fact better -- no one is going to counter "vanilla who gets investigation benefits if boosted" if no such role exists. I am in fact a bit skeptical that any role has in it "you get X if boosted." My role does not, I can only speculate on what boosting does. I find it surprising that a role would explicitly state "if you get boosted X happens."
I also disagree that if Electra turns out to be the only claimed vanilla that knows what boosting her does, she would be in a better position.
In fact, if you look at the first page of this game, there's at least one post that suggests that she is not the only one.
I also think it's quite obvious that when Electra says "people with roles" she means people that can do somethingwithout being boosted.
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No.Jahudo wrote:I think more people need to say if they think Incog was playing the agitator on SL.
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No. I don't think RR probing sthar on it is that indicative either, though. (And as far as I can tell, that's all your case on him ever was, I don't get where you're getting at with the backing off thing.)iLord wrote:Do you think Guilt is indictive of scum?-
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I see, I had taken it as "BM correctly pinned her as scum because she was player like in R-1000".Incognito wrote:I didn't bring up the Nice Shot! to draw a comparison between her play here and her play there because I agree with what you say about her play seeming different there from her play here. If I wasn't clear, I referenced Nice Shot! purely for Battle Mage's comment about her since he claimed to have meta-experience with her.
Really? I don't see it.As for her posting rate, I think her posting rate here better matched her posting rate in her scum games. She was posting here at a rate of about 1 post every 3 days, which, if you look at her past scum games seems about right for her. In her town games, she seems to post at least once per day excluding weekends where her posting does seem to decline regardless of her alignment.
Look at these three games:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7452
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7687
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7729
She's been town in all three of them, and her posting pattern is pretty much 3 days of nothing, one day of multiple posts, etc.
Which is also the pattern in this game.
In fact, if you look at it a bit more closely, her scum games have a similar pattern, but sometimes the "gap" opens up to more than a week. (See the two scum games you linked for examples of this). So, if anything, her posting frequency would be a slight town tell.
I can't follow how you came to your conclusion. Which town game have you seen where she posted as regular as you claim?-
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Oh, right, I didn't think of looking for her ongoings.
Her other game where she's already dead seems to support this, too: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9599-
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Have you looked into R-1000? It does looks similar. But as I said before, one game is not that much to construct a meta based on it.Guardian wrote:Re: her meta; I don't see it as appearing faked. If she does exaggerate annoyedness, and Incognito is trying to use that as a meta-argument against her/me, he or someone needs to demonstrate that she does that as scum and does not do it as town. It seemed real to me and she is town here, so I would be extremely surprised if such meta-evidence exists.
What I was trying to say is, if every "vanilla" that exists in this game had no information on how boosting them works, page one would've not gone the way it has.Well in endgame she would not be, but if she is scum, and no other such roles exists, she benefits now because then no one is going to counter claim her now, and we will only figure it out much later, if we do figure it out at all. Meanwhile she gets boosted, gets whatever scum benefit she gets from being boosted, and makes up some BS "info" she got. If she is scum her claim certainly advantages her now.
If there are vanillas that know what boosting does, chances are very good that Electra is town and one of them.
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I think I'm already sharing my opinions. If you think I haven't commented on a specific topic, just ask.sthar8 wrote:TDC: Do you have any opinions to share?
Didn't like how skillit ran a really poor attack on Electra and then tried to make it look as if it never happened. (Which was, as you recall, my reason for voting him).Who do you think is scum?
He subsequently disappeared literally in the midst of a post. I'm fine with my vote on him until I hear from his replacement.
I don't like how iLord is pushing the RR case relentlessly, because I don't really see the point in it.
RR attacked you for this debatable guilt thing and subsequently unvoted citing your massclaim reasoning. I can't follow how that's a case that merits pages upon pages of discussion.
Guardian's entry (trying to discredit Electra, continuing sl's tunnel vision on Incognito) doesn't manage to destroy the "springlullaby is more likely scum than Incognito" lean I got from metaing her.
As you can probably tell, none of this is really solid. I don't have a very strong idea of who's scum right now, but if I had to lynch someone right now, I'd be up for either of the three mentioned above.
I guess I could use a re-read, but I don't have the time for that at the moment.
I don't know what you actually mean with this. I don't think this was ever part of your case.What do you think about Crazy's following the town?
Is it his skillit vote (the, at the time, largest wagon?).
He hasn't done anything in the last two weeks and is now being replaced.
Unlike many others, I actually have two boost votes going.Who do you think we should boost?
I mean them.
Not a question, but I'd advise you to meta him.If you have any specific questions about the Crazy case, I'd be glad to answer them-
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As in, if there were more games where this happened, I'd be pretty sure. As it is, I only have a lean.Guardian wrote:TDC, why does your read that SL is more likely scum than Incognito come from meta-ing her? You said in the same post that one game is not much to construct a meta from.
No, it is of course possible that both of you are town. I'm saying that if one of you is scum, I'd place my bet on you, rather than him.TDC, why does my being more likely scum than Incognito make me your third choice of who to lynch? Do you think one of us must be scum? Are we about equal and he is fourth? Or why?
That I'm comparing you two should not be much of a surprise, seeing that sl had not done much more than argue with Incognito, and considering that both of you claim to be pretty sure the other is scum.
Incognito is pretty much a null read for me.
Why would scum not have an interest to discredit her? (Assuming she is town, which, as I've explained, I think is very likely).Why is trying to discredit Electra suspicious?
I would've expected a replacement to take a deep breath and reconsider. Instead you're just continuing where she left off.What makes you think I have SL-like tunnel vision?
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Do you happen to have a link to the one game where he's been town?sthar8 wrote:None of this is indicative of alignment, however. I can point you to several examples of his scum play, but Skillit has only once received a town PM to my knowledge. I'm eager to hear Mana_Ku's opinions on the game as well.
That he exhibits this kind of "apathy" independent of alignment.What do you think I will learn from a Crazy-meta? My time is limited and I'd like to focus the search if possible.
I see. I guess I'll need to revisit the timing of those actions. (Because in themselves they are pretty similar to mine, so I guess your point here is the timing, right?)As for his "following the crowd," Crazy's vote, his support of eldarad, support of Electra, and support of Incog over SL all tag along with the majority of opinions expressed before him. I think this is happening too often for coincidence.-
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Obviously not.Mana_Ku wrote: TDC, did you mean this:TDC wrote:I want proof for this before I mindlessly hop onto the wagon!
I assume your answer refers to the point I agreed with, which was:
You could also say that scum would do this as they know town won't think scum would do this.TDC wrote:That's a fair point. Boost: Electra.
I don't really see what you're trying to say, to be honest.eldarad wrote:And, as Electra said, for a scum to make that leap of faith about the existence or otherwise of boostable vanilla townies, or whatever, is pause for thought.
Are you saying it's just as likely that scum would make up a whole role type ("boostable vanilla") that might not even exist, on day 1, without any pressure on them?-
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The list was not a "top three". It was "the three" that I would consider lynching if I had to.Guardian wrote: If me *being scummier* than Incog puts me in the top 3, then does it not follow that Incog is fourth, if you only have a "lean" that I am scummier that you needed to meta SL for?
There is no fourth place.
It wasn't meant as justification. Again, the conversation with Incognito was pretty much the only thing springlullaby did. So it makes sense to think about whether this was a scum-scum, scum-town, or town-town interaction.Why mention me being scummier than Incog as justification for having me in the top three? Also, what do you find scummy about Incog that you needed to compare us for?
Scum-scum seems very unlikely (unless there's more than one scum group).
Scum-town is possible. If it is, I'd bet on you over Incognito (which is why I compared you with him).
Town-town is possible, too. Though the dialogue got a bit too out of hand.
Unless you're trying to tell me that you think it's more likely scum-scum or town-town - what's wrong with comparing you two?
I've already explained why I think it is very likely she's town, so I don't really see the point of doing it again.
What about my logic is wrong? I think it is not particularly obvious one way or the other if she is town (which, as I've explained, I think is very likely the correct stance). Why do you take it to be more likely that I am scum rather than a townie that disagrees?TDC wrote:
Why would scum not have an interest to discredit her? (Assuming she is town, which, as I've explained, I think is very likely).Guardian wrote:Why is trying to discredit Electra suspicious?
Your sentence is a bit weirdly structured, do you mean to say that you think the correct stance is that she's town, or that it could go either way?
I assume the latter.
I don't see where you're thinking it could be "one way or the other".
Pretty much everything you've said about her sounds rather negative:Honestly I do think her post would be easy for scum to do [..] Her post seems like it very well could be a scum gambit. Her play otherwise has not been exceptional. I don't see her as my number one scum target, but I definitely do not support boosting her.I also caution against boosting electra for the reasons I've mentioned.
Have I missed the post where you actually consider that what she says could be true?Electra: Claim could easily come from scum. No huge read either way. Misguided thoughts about voting and boosting.
What would you think if right now someone else claimed a similar (vanilla that knows what boosting him does) role, but with a different power?
Would that make you more inclined to believe her? Less?
There, you answered your own question.I decided that making roughly the same arguments against a townie that weren't working for SL because for some reason (and please provide the reason, I'd like to understand what reasoning you think scum would have) I thought that was the best idea.
[..]
If I am town, the fact that I took up the same case as my predecessor should give it credence -- that is two independent town minds who reached the same conclusions about Incognito.
Yes, you have commented on other things since then and I appreciate that.I also would argue that I have not focused exclusively on Incognito in a "tunnel vision" sense, where I ignore what is happening around me or ignore arguments to the contrary -- I have commented and though on other players.
At the time I said that, you had focused on just Incognito and the "Electra's claim can easily come from scum" thing.
Incognito had only one post (the one where he voted you) between your entry to the game and my assertion that you just continued where sl left off. Since then, I haven't seen him as tunneling.Also, (everyone:) do you think it would be fair to describe Incog's play as primarily focusing on me? If so, what is different about me/Incognito that makes it OK for him to focus on me but not vice versa, as TDC's logic would imply?
If you mean the time before that, Incognito and sl where certainly interlocked. That in and of itself I don't see as much of a problem. That's the way an extensive dialogue works.
My problem with your entry (and you entered without the "burden" to respond to everything Incognito ever said, so it's not like you were forced into continuing that conversation) was that it amounted to "Hi, sl was absolutely right, Incognito is scum. Oh and Electra's claim could very well come from scum, too!".
It's just so convenient to continue accusing the guy that's pushing for your lynch and discredit someone who the town had pretty much concluded is probably town.
I recognize that you've moved onto other topics since then, and it lessens my suspicions of you.
There is.but there seems to be a lack of clarity in TDC's mind about who he finds suspicious.-
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Either both of you are horribly, horribly wrong or one of you is dead right (thought not particularly convincing) and the other is just trying to make it a two way game.Guardian wrote:So, obviously, Incog and me are leaning town-scum. The point is what makes YOU lean town-scum. Do you find his arguments against SL/me convincing? It is up for you to evaluate what to make of me/Incog; the fact that both he and I currently think town/scum is most likely should not bias your reading of the situation.
Just doesn't read like the former, to be honest. I certainly don't remember a town-town discussion ever being as heated. (Which probably has the reason that when both players are town, they both have an interest to keep it civilised.)
I understand that there are probably not going to be two identical roles. But why would you prefer believing the counterclaimer (who could, for all you know, just have copied Electra's role)?If someone claimed an investigation/game knowledge on boosting role, I would be less likely to believe her.
I don't really understand the difference between these two. Can you clarifiy?If someone claimed a role that was vanilla but had a pretty obvious thing that should/would get improved upon boosting, I would be about the same likelihood of believing her. If someone claimed another role that explicitly stated the exact nature of what would happen if they were boosted, but it was no informational, I might be more likely to believe her.
Possibly, yes. You have already claimed that your case is more credible if you're town, for exactly that reason.So the reason that hypothetical me-scum decided to pursue Incognito is because I though that (if) people thought I was town and thus would join me, they would find the argument more plausible because I am a second person who found it plausible?
(You've done something similar with the "I'm always OMGUSy"-meta argument. I mean, meta is all fine, but bringing it up yourself leaves a bit of a bad taste.)
Anyway, before you brought that point up, I thought more along the lines of you trying to keep the "duel" between you two alive, because you thought you had a better chance surviving that than when you would've said "uh, look. No idea what sl did there. I'll just start over."
Why would it be necessary for you to use the exact same reasoning as she did?I mean my argument about Incog only shares a few of SL's points
I mean, if you just copied everything verbatim, it would not really look like a second opinion, would it?
(And dropping weak points is nearly always a good idea, regardless of alignment, isn't it?)
The main point of your attack is pretty much the same though, right?
Dismissiveness, "passive aggression", etc.
As far as I remember, this is the first time that you say that one of her arguments was bad. (I think you previously mentioned that she might've been OMGUSy).I re-read a bit after I responded to you, and at least one of SL's points seems really dumb -- that Incog wasn't sure who was scum yet on page 4. So it isn't like we had the same arguments or that SL is this bastion of truth.-
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I'd think the chance that the replacee would notice that this was the case would be kind of high.Guardian wrote:Odd, I can remember a few such times... Why doesn't it read like the former? How would a case where two townies are horribly wrong and are very convinced they are right and are attacking each other read?
Let's pretend the counterclaim came as part of a mass claim. (i.e. "not liking to lock themselves into a role" is irrelevant)My general rule of thumb is if the time is short, always believe the counter-claimer. If time is medium, tend to believe the counterclaimer. If time is long, think about it objectively. Scum do not like to counterclaim and lock themselves into a role. Counterclaimers tend to be town.
And that would not change your mind about Electra. But if someone claimed that if boosted, he would be able to target someone and would probably help them in some way, though he doens't know how, that would make Electra's claim more believable for you.Like if someone was a vanilla but it says their job was a nurse, then if they get boosted it would be pretty obvious they would be a doctor.
Have I understood this?
That's not what I'm saying at all. We were talking about it making your case look stronger if you're town. So to everyone who thinks you're town (regardless whether they're right or not) it would matter.IF I am town. That gives no ARGUMENT for me being town. If I am scum I don't care who the hell I mislynch, I just care about looking town. Why does me attacking Incog again make me look more town, or why would I think it would make me look more town?
And as scum you sure do care whether people buy your cases or not.
You're right and I retract that statement. It was Incognito who brought that up in the first place.
Didn't Incog bring that meta up??? Then I called it a supposed meta, since I am not sure it is true anymore?TDC wrote:(You've done something similar with the "I'm always OMGUSy"-meta argument. I mean, meta is all fine, but bringing it up yourself leaves a bit of a bad taste.)
Oh I can certainly believe that you've done the latter as town and scum.
I've done that as town and scum before very successfully; I don't see why I wouldn't have tried it here.TDC wrote:Anyway, before you brought that point up, I thought more along the lines of you trying to keep the "duel" between you two alive, because you thought you had a better chance surviving that than when you would've said "uh, look. No idea what sl did there. I'll just start over."
But how often have you done the former as town?-
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That's not what I was trying to say. You are not unbiased, you know your own alignment.Guardian wrote:Your point is that if it is town-town then an unbiased replacee would realize this because he is unbiased.
If that is true I would think that the unbiased townies around would notice that this chance is high -- this argument goes in circles.
If you're town the question you face "Is Incognito scum?" is less complicated than the question unbiased onlookers face: "Is one of them scum? If so, who?"
You did not enter with the ballast of "I've discussed with this guy for 10 pages, he must be scum", so yes, I see a difference between you noticing this is the case, and someone else noticing it.
Is that delusional?
I thought this was clear enough, but apparently not:This is why I am asking for ***YOUR*** reasons and reactions, independent of mine.
I can not pull up a specific post (or a couple of them) and say "look, here, this is why they can't be both town." If I could, I wouldn't need to rely on the meta lean to decide between you, because these posts would probably give me much more to decide on.
It's just a general impression I got from reading the thing.
Do you think Electra would've garnered as much support as she did if everybody had a role like you?My role is not like that, and to me the notion of such boost-hungry roles is weird.
There are probably other ways to make people think you're town. I don't see why both things would need to be achieved with one action.This line of thought only helps me IF people think I am town.
I have never claimed it would.You are putting the chicken before the egg -- what I am asking about is how me continuing to pursue Incog is supposed to make me look town-like in the first place.-
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Guardian has asked me the same question and I have answered it to the best of my ability in Post 400.iLord wrote:@TDC: In Post 386, why is a town-town relationship between SL/Guardian and Incognito unlikely because the conversation was intense?
Is scum more likely to scumhunt in your eyes, or what are you trying to say here?I don't think it's a scumtell though - it's one of the reasons I'm reading her as town.-
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I don't know when the new deadline will be, but we really should get the second boost done.
Current boost count (I added alternative boosts in italics):
TDC (2+2) <- Incognito, sthar8,Raging Rabbit, Huntress
sthar8 (2+2) <- Guardian, iLord,TDC, Incognito
Raging Rabbit (2+2) <- Jahudo, Mana_Ku,TDC, Incognito
eldarad (1+2) <- TDC,Incognito, Raging Rabbit
Guardian <- Raging Rabbit
Jahudo <- eldarad
Should be complete. More people need to say who they'd be willing to boost.-
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Vote wagons and boost wagons are fundamentally different in that a majority of vote wagon results are anti-town (lynching town), while a majority of boost wagon results are pro-town (boosting town), because there are more townies that scum - It's much harder to lynch scum, than it is to boost town. So I guess the analogue of a boost wagon of town (which we both think sthar is), would be a vote wagon on scum. With the motive for scum to jump on it being that they want to be part of it before it's too late.Guardian wrote:When a vote-wagon builds that quickly, usually there are scum on it. Should we assume that that does not apply to a boost wagon?
Even then though, if you're not being part of "the scum lynch", there are (assuming 9 town 3 scum) only two other good vote wagons, whereas if you're not being part of "the town boost", there are 8 other good boost wagons. So basically, being on the wrong boost wagon is less wrong than being on the wrong lynch wagon, and hence there would be less incentive for scum to be "part of it"?
Also, a whopping 95% of possible wagons of size 7 have at least one scum on them (under the same assumptions), so this seems to be a moot argument anyway. (Fun fact: A wagon of size 3 already has about 60%)
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I don't see the eldarad case, I still have him as likely town.
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Green Crayons: Why do you lean scum on RR?-
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I agreed (and voted Skillit for the same thing) on the former, and disagreed on the latter (and said as much back then).Huntress wrote:
What is your opinion of his reasons for his votes on Skillet and Crazy? I'd be interested to hear this from Jahudo too.TDC wrote:I don't see the eldarad case, I still have him as likely town.-
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Okay, so only a few days to deadline, and we neet to get a full, 7 vote, lynch done.
Biggest wagon is eldarad with three, but I've already said I don't want to lynch him.
Of the two two vote wagons I prefer Huntress.
unvote vote Huntress
I would consider switching to back Green Crayons or changing to iLord, Jahudo or Guardian (in about that order) if they become viable lynches.-
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I'm still pretty neutral on Incognito. Crazy was null for me, but you've done a few things that bugged me. (Mostly, the whole post-boost discussion of Electra). That said, I think that your unwillingness to join what seems to be the only competing wagon to yours is a mild pro-town sign and I'd prefer a Jahudo lynch over a you-lynch, anyway.Huntress wrote:
Why is that? Looking back through your posts I can't see any reason for this decision.TDC wrote:Of the two two vote wagons I prefer Huntress.
unvote; vote: Jahudo
I'm willing to switch back if Jahudo turns out not be able to reach 7 votes in time.-
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The two kills had different kill flavour, though. iLord was stabbed and Guardian was shot.Raging Rabbit wrote:Hmm. I wonder if the two kills mean we boosted scum. I think both electra and sthar should claim the benefits the boost had on them, especially electra who claimed to get some form of extra knowledge.
Just like yesterday, I'llboost eldarad.
I would think that players that are boosted at night (as per Huntress' claim) would be notified of this. If that's the case (mod: Can you tell us?), I think it would make sense if she claims who she boosted, so that we at least know that her claim is either true or that both she and the claimed boostee are lying.
Though I could see "booster" as a scum role, too, in which case finding out who she boosted will be of help, as well.-
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While Electra's information is not really testable right now, a mass claim without any plain vanillas would hurt her credibility a lot. (I am assuming that if what she says is true, vanillas that do not know about their boost are not boostable.. though that's just speculation).
Huntress.. I still think a booster role would be a good scum role (with two boosts per day already being in the town's hand) and her boosting of the dead guy is convenient. (And even a Tracker confriming that she did that would not help a lot since she could just have submitted the kill.)
Her being the competing wagon to Jahudo is a plus though.
Incognito killing Guardian makes sense. Not sure whether an SK makes sense in this kind of game.
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sthar8: What was the second power you thought you might have? (And was the first actually the double vote, or did you think it was something different?).
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Incognito: I would not put it beyond the mod to create functionally equivalent roles (vanilla with known boosts and power roles that only work upon being boosted) and call them differently.
Why would sthar8 not make his own life easier and claim to be "vanilla that gets a double vote when boosted"?
As for your claim, I understand you right that you claim to have started out as one-shot vig, and every boost gives you another shot? (With, according to Electra, a maximum of three shots in total). As much as I'm aware that you thought Guardian was scum.. Why use your one (and unless you're boosted it could very well be your only) shot night 1? I doubt you feared to be nightkilled.
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Electra: How exactly does your boost work, do you need to be boosted again to receive new information, or do you now receive information every night?
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I don't really remember anything about Iceman or his predecessors. Did he enter the picture via Jahudo's posts or on his (or his predecessors') own?Raging Rabbit wrote:Right. I'm calling the scumteam of Jahudo + Iceman + either sthar or eldarad, more likely sthar. I have lots of notes which I could try organizing into a proper case, but I'd like to hear everyoe's thoughts on that first.
You can look them up in my wiki.Also, I'm a bit unsure with my boost on TDC. Could you link us to some finished scum games of yours, TDC? Your play strikes me as similar to your town performance in Cop Central, but it's possible you play exactly like that as scum as well.-
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Fair enough. I suppose you agree with your next shot (if any) being directed by the town?Incognito wrote:I fully intended to claim today no matter what in the hopes of getting boosted and possibly gaining another bullet so that I could shoot again Night 2.
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His reaction to Electra's claim, mainly.Huntress wrote:@ TDC: What are your reasons for choosing to boost Eldarad?
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How do you figure that a scum booster would not be useful to the mafia? Do you think a scum booster would be unable to boost fellow scum? Or that scum can't be boosted?eldarad wrote:A scum booster makes complete sense as it is a power that is not useful to the mafia, but can be used to confirm the person who has that power.-
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The problem with this is that claiming to have boosted the dead guy does not confirm her at all.eldarad wrote:
I think the benefit of being confirmed by a townie would exceed the benefit of boosting a mafia teammate. I also think that boosting a mafia buddy would carry a rather large potential drawback of creating a link between them.TDC wrote:How do you figure that a scum booster would not be useful to the mafia? Do you think a scum booster would be unable to boost fellow scum? Or that scum can't be boosted?
It may even be the case that Huntress-scum boosted her mafia buddy and claimed to have boosted iLord precisely because of this drawback.
I guess I also assumed that the town suffers when it boosts scum because it loses a power as much as because the scum gain a power.
If she actually is a scum booster, then her not boosting someone who'd live to tell is testament that boosting a buddy is more valuable than getting her ability confirmed (or rather that scum think this is the case).
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Boost: Incognito-
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My question is whether if you're not boosted again you will receive new information anyway.vollkan wrote:@TDC:
I'm not sure I understand your question. I haven't read anything suggesting I "need" to be boosted again...
I've already checked Electra's posts and I see that she has, quite rightly, made public the information that the N1 boost gave her, if that was what you meant.-
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Sthar8 mentioned that his role was kind of vague and that he had two thoughts of what his role could actually be. He never shared what these two possibilites he saw were (and whether the double voter was one of them).Xtoxm wrote:I don't understand.
Hence, I'm asking whether you have an idea what he could've meant.-
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I thought the implied question was obvious, but anyway: What are these two roles he probably thought he could have? Is one of them the role you actually claim to have? Why do you think did all this make him think a day one mass claim was a good idea?Xtoxm wrote:To an extent yes, but I don't know what he actually thought they were, but my guess is a good as his.-
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Got prodded.
Still want Xtoxm to claim.
I remember someone (RR?) claiming to have a case on iceman/his predecessors. Can we see that?
In other news, we need to get a boost vote done, it's just like.. one week and a bit to deadline.
Only 5 people have boost votes going, this needs to change.
vollkan: Are you aware of the deadline? It looks like if you were to progress through the game at a similar speed you've been doing this week, you'll not actually reach the end of it by then.-
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Hm.
When xtoxm claimed sthar's claim was "just the boost", it (for me, at least) clearly implied he had a power regardless of the boost, which contradicted sthar's "I'm a double voter" statement.
The thing with the two "qualities" fall in line with sthar's "I've narrowed it down to two things", but other than that, I still have doubts.
Xtoxm:
- You said that your boost pm indicated that the boost came from specifically one of your "charachter qualities", which leads you to believe boosting you again would provide you with whatever the other quality corresponds to. Sthar8 seemed to think different. He did claim "I'm a double voter", after all. There's nothing in his posts of today that suggests he followed the same train of thought as you. Any idea why?
- You come into the thread and are asked to claim. When presented with sthar's claim you say "that's just the boost". Not "one of the boosts", just "the boost".
I guess it is possible that with "the boost" you meant "the boost I received" and not "the boost (ability) I have", but all this "vigging me is stupid, because I'm a power role"-talk just doesn't fit together with you merely possibly having a second (mysterious) boost ability.
That said, I wouldn't have bought a real power claim from you and the contradiction between "He only claimed my boost" and "I have two different boosts" is much less severe than between "I'm a double voter" and "I'm also a power role". Also, I found sthar8 to be pretty pro-town D1..unvote
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RR: Where's your iceman case showing connections between his predecessors and Jahudo?-
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I see little reason to lynch iceman today as opposed to tomorrow.
This is an interesting point though.eldarad wrote:However, iceman suggested in #916 that I was on the right track, but he also says in #1021 that he had forgot what role he had until he had been asked to claim...
So how could his role be affecting his posting rate prior to that?
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iceman:
Why the fake self-hammer?
Does your PM contain anything about what happens (or could happen) when you get boosted?
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I'm not sure why people keep commiting to "there's no contradiction" and "proven scum right there" on the Xtoxm issue.
Of course there is a contradiction (or rather, two of them).
1. Clearly sthar's claim implies completeness. (He gave himself a freaking role name, after all). So anything that adds to this (especially if it turns him from "a double voter" into "a double voter and XY") is a contradiction.
This can only be explained by sthar making stupid assumptions (like "trait A was turned into my boost, so trait B is now obsolete"). This requires a certain carelessness from sthar's side.
2. Xtoxm's "sthar only claimed the boost" clearly implies that something that is not "the boost" is missing. The obvious interpretation of this is something that's not a boost at all. The less obvious interpretation is that the words "of this night" are missing. This requires a certain carelessness regarding a) reading his predecessors claim (that, again, had a role name, so was obviously "complete" for anyone who read it and b) phrasing his own post.
I don't see how anyone can say there's no contradiction there. The question is whether it's careless scum or careless town. (No scum would intentionally counter-claim himself, right?).
I'd really like to hear why iceman and GC think he's "obviously town".
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Xtoxm: Mind actually explaining why you think RR is scum?
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Incognito: I don't see a conflict between a one-shot cop and a role that gets vague information about the setup. Why do you?-
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Hm, the "obvious town" line actually came from Incognito and was based on meta.Green Crayons wrote:
Did I say that? (Honest question.) I remember Incog spouting off such strong rhetoric, and me saying something along the lines that Xtox didn't necessarily seem to be scum lying about their role. Though, I'll admit I was a super-strong supporter of sthar - he was more townish to me than his replacement.TDC wrote:I'd really like to hear why iceman and GC think he's "obviously town".
Still, you've completely avoided talking about the problems with Xtoxm's claim.
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Your PM, however, supposedly implies that the characteristics get turned into an ability by way of boost.Xtoxm wrote:You're such a tard...My PM says nothing about a boost either, and I also asked the mod, and got a pretty much exact same reply. You probably get another investigation on boost.
I would think that iceman's PM would similarly imply that he could acquire more potions or whatever. Clearly, that thought never entered his mind.
I primarily asked to see whether he would take up the offer and claim to be boostable to potentially prolong his life.. which he didn't.
Instead you're taking it up for him?
(Or are you now claiming that the fact that boosting you gives you abilities related to your characteristics is NOT somewhat obvious from your role PM, which would contradict sthar's play yet another time?)-
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Forgot Incognito's post:
Well, yes and no.Incognito wrote:I'd think that kind of speculation would at least throw up a partial red flag from at least one of the three people who've shared this role (maybe some general leeriness about Electra's claim) but I see no sign of that. They all either didn't comment on it or really the purest reaction came from fuzzylightning who just seemed to lean town on her.
If you see someone speculating that they might have your role, but you think they don't have your role*, then why make a fuss? (Especially if you think they're town, but I guess neither of them ever said anything like that.)
* I mean, she had claimed she would get "information about the town". How anyone could get the idea this could be a cop investigation is truly beyond me.-
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It doesn't?Xtoxm wrote:
Putting words in my mouth?Your PM, however, supposedly implies that the characteristics get turned into an ability by way of boost.
NO IT DOESN'Tsthar8 wrote:My role PM gave nonspecific qualities of my character, and implied that boosting me would amplify these charactersitics into a power.
Yet, according to Electra's information, thereThe inductive step that people can be boosted isn't hard jump to make.arepeople who gain nothing at all by being boosted.-
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What changed?Xtoxm, earlier on wrote:Eld looks town in general to me. Good boost target. Glancing through isolations I see no reason to chnage these opinions.
How does that answer anything?Xtoxm wrote:Yeh, see sample PM.
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Uh, not my quote.vollkan wrote:TDC wrote:However, iceman suggested in #916 that I was on the right track, but he also says in #1021 that he had forgot what role he had until he had been asked to claim...
So how could his role be affecting his posting rate prior to that?
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Still not interested in lynching eldarad.
iceman is not a bad lynch, but I don't see why it has to occur today?
Huntress I could live with, but I'd rather lynch Xtoxm.
vote: Xtoxm
Will switch to Huntress or iceman in that order otherwise.-
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boost: Incognito
boost: eldarad
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Incognito: Why so sure about Xtoxm? I don't get it.
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Xtoxm: I might be missing something, but if you don't hammer with your double vote it doesn't tell us anything, because if you DID hammer, Incognito would just vig you over night. A town lynch does not immediately end the game at this point.
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As for mass claim, assuming Incognito gets another shot, we're not quite in LyLo, more Ly/VigLo. Either way, mass claim probably is a good idea.
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Why is RR "supporting" me more significant than me "supporting" eld?Green Crayons wrote:I'm thinking scum = RR + TDC (I seem to recall RR having some pretty strong support towards TDC whenever the two acknowledge one another, but I need to go back and reread)-
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No. But then, the biggest amount of games with the same person I have is.. two.Incognito wrote:Have you NEVER played with anyone so often that the person could literally post the word "Hi!" and from that moment onward, you'd know if he was town or scum just from that one post? (I'm exaggerating a bit but you get the idea.)
If Xtoxm is THAT easy to read, then it shouldn't be too hard to explain where he dropped his "Hi! I'm town!"-tell, so that someone who has never played with him before can understand it. Or is it really just a feeling?-
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He can't be that blatant every time as scum, can he? I mean.. with so many games under his belt and supposedly such a clear cut scum meta, you'd think he'd use it to his advantage when scum once in a while..Incognito wrote:An Xtoxm-scum, on the other hand, is very much an IIoA scum. He'll comment on anything and everything except for the game itself and will very rarely express his thoughts on the players. In this game, he's (very concisely as per usual) let us all know who he's suspicious of and who he thinks is town and so far, he's been accurate with his town choices at least (Huntress and icemanE were both town like he thought). Obviously you don't have to take any of my word for this: you can go through his games on your own if you'd like too. And if you're still doubtful about my ability to tell the difference, here's a vote that I made in a past Newbie Game on page 3 of that thread with a completely serious vote on what ended up being an Xtoxm-D1-lynched-scum. From what I've seen, I really don't think his (scum) playstyle has changed all that dramatically from that point to now.
Xtoxm: Mind linking to your last two or three scum games?
I'm not sure why you're introducing your question with that observation, it doesn't have any bearing on my judgement.Incognito wrote:TDC, Raging Rabbit has pretty clearly stated a number of times that he thinks you're town. What are your thoughts on him?
I think he's played a solid game so far.
I don't understand why/how he's so certain on Xtoxm, but I entirely agree with him that there are indeed contradictions between the claims.
Similarly I think his suspicion of iceman was valid, though I still don't get why letting him live another night to do his "investigation", or as it turns out, investigation, would've been a bad idea.
Other than that, I've never really thought him to be scummy.
That said, by process of elimination (you and to a lesser extent eldarad) there's only him, GC and Xtoxm left.
The case itself is not that interesting. What is interesting though, is the timing. Guardian had just brought Jahudo to three votes versus Huntress' four.Incognito wrote:What do people think about Green Crayons's post 649?
This might well've been a last effort to save the godfather.
The promise of re-reading Jahudo to see whether he's a more worthy lynch never happened either.
No idea why eldarad doesn't see a contradiction there. I think I've afterwards explained fairly well where it is. He's kind of tying himself to Xtoxm with that.What do people think about eldarad's post 890? I'll give my thoughts about it after you give me yours.
The notice of RR's town read on Electra supposedly having developed without taking her claim into account made a good question.
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What happened to our mass claim? I suggest Incognito picks a claim order.
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Xtoxm wrote:I'm nigh on certain TDC is scum.Xtoxm wrote:See Incog? I said yesterday...It doesn't matter his alignment...He has to die.
Vote RR
Uh..?Xtoxm wrote:I'm thinking on a TDC-GC pair now...
[..]
Unvote Vote GC
RR needs to be vigged.-
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Yes, would like to see that.
The two games you've linked are pretty much what Incognito promised.
What about Incognito then? He knows your meta and lynched you in another game for it. Surely that qualifies as "half decent"?Oh, and I don't need to change my meta because i've never been scum in a game with someone who's half decent at reading me
If you're scum you certainly DID need to play to your town meta, because Incognito would've figured you out otherwise.-
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