Mini 961: Insane Asylum II: GAME OVER :O!

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/confirm

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Vote: Tarhalindur

msutils indicates high activity during the several days before his late confirmation. CSL was inactive in an ongoing during the same time, and bv's explanation is plausible.

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Sometimes scum can chat til the game starts. Delaying confirms lengthens scumplanning. There is no reason for town to delay confirming. So delaying confirming is scummy.

Really, farside. I've made this RVS vote in games with you before.

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Actually, my mistake; I had it displaying "topics" instead of "posts." You're totally right that you were globally off-site.

Unvote

I think farside has mischaracterized the reason for my vote being crap. I think this is slightly scummy because it indicates an interest in finding a framework for voting someone more than reflection on whether said actions are scummy.

Vote: farside

.

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You voted me and asked me a question. I assumed that the two events were related. Your question was why stalling out on confirmation would be voteworthy. So the implication is that you think it's scummy to vote someone for stalling out on confirmation.

I did check Tar; I just uses msutils incorrectly. I had it displaying "topics" rather than "posts." Have already indicated this.

Are you claiming that you voted me because you noticed that discrepancy? If so, why didn't you allude to it instead of asking an abstract question about confirmation stalling being voteworthy?

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1) stated that I made a comment calling your vote crap. Untrue
2) avoid answering question.
3) OMGUS vote that is unjustified thus far and still avoiding answering my orginal question about why Tar stood out amoung the 3.
4) bringing up an ongoing game that can not be discussed

1) is misrep IMO at this point; I have already explained why it looked to me like you thought the vote was crap. At best, you're splitting hairs by clearing thinking it was crap and complaining I'm saying you said it was crap.
2) Uh, I answered your question. To restate -- scum sometimes delay confirmation to extend pregame talk, so late confirmation, especially where there's a big gap, is a priori scummy.
3) I gave reasoning IMO. I still think it's good reasoning, too. I also explained why Tar stood out among those three, and you're quite aware of it because you go as far as to flat-out mention
4) which is somewhat naughty of you to do IMO.

I <3 Glorky.

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SP, my vote for farside has 0% to do with her meta AFAIK.

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1) "At best, you're splitting hairs by clearly having thought my vote was crap [cf. your counter-vote] while complaining that I said you said it was crap [which is vacuously true because you didn't EXPLICITLY say as much, even if your vote implies you thought so]." Does that edit make it make more sense? Too many pronouns, I think.

2) You have all the information you need to answer the first question. bv got a free pass for providing a plausible excuse for his late confirm. Also already stated.

3) I don't know what you mean. To justify the vote, I indicated why your behavior was more likely to come from scum than town (or, really, why it beats background probabilities).

4) I'm not playing dumb; I'm saying that your flagrant lampshading, especially with a tone capable of drawing a modkill, looks bad. No, I do not think you should address the issue further.

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So, are you saying your vote for me was pure farsideRVS?

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There is a disproportionate interest in mod-lynching this game. Does someone know something I don't?

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^ Ya, the only game I've read with mod-lynching had it result in a silly scene and NL.

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SCSK, please revote when you unvote thanks. <3

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I hate lynching Glorky.

I am thinking about it a little tho tbh.

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Kai, my point was that she didn't vote me for misrepresenting the fact, but rather because (as I read it) she thought it was scummy to vote based on late confirms (similar to what you just said). I thought it was scummy because it was evidence that she wasn't really investigating my content, but was instead looking for an accepted reason to vote someone. It's the same logic that makes you think that people who push votes based on late confirms are scummy.

(It turns out that, assuming she isn't backpedaling, and I think it's plausible that she isn't, she was voting me for neither reason, but rather to indicate that she was serious about the question and wanted it to be answered.)

I'm not personally aware of the statistical stuff you've alluded to, but I'll take your word for it on the math. I can say that I've been in a scumgroup where I was chastised for confirming too soon, and I've been (IIRC) in a scumgroup where a scumfriend took ages to formally confirm while talking pre-game.

(My guess is that depending on how you operationalize it, you'll see an effect. For example, if all the confirms are on the same day, confirmation order is not a strong tell; but, if a subset are delayed significantly (as in this game), the tell might be stronger. But this is all neither here nor there six pages in.)

Regardless of whether UK wants us to lynch her, that probably doesn't reliably indicate that town wants what UK wants to happen to happen.

I think I interpret some of Glork's behavior a little differently from you. Townies have no motivation whatsoever for voting themselves, except to construct an obnoxious meta, whereas scum have WIFOM-inducing motivation for doing something like that. I also didn't like his self-meta of "wacky Glorky" when someone mentioned as much. I also also didn't know what to make of his allusion to the possibility that I might be masons with him. (I also also also don't really know why he'd have a town read on me given the farside interaction, but people seem to agree with him, so w/e.) SC (IIRC) calling Glork pro-town "if anything" for being wacky (it brings conversation!) was even more bizarre, though. I understand your perspective on that issue, too, though.

As such, I'm more ambivalent than you on SP-SC-Glork. I'm tired of voting farside, though, frankly.

Unvote; Vote: StrangerCoug

. I'll read through the last few pages again and see if I change my mind.

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I guess maybe if you think you read people best early on when you're making off-topic, jokey discussion, which I could kinda see.

Results of reread:

Typically with RVS I vote some person I know will make my life hell and watch for reaction.

I'll make your life hell?

Second SB's request that SP and /or Tar change avatars. (Do they have the same one because of some other game? DTM had it, too.)

Tar, have you played with SB before?

The interaction with Sociopath and Glork about the dictionary business is very unnatural, especially since Glork had already criticized Iec-farside for being a "distraction." But I have a slightly townier read on Glork this time through, for whatever reason.

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V/LA this weekend. I'm visiting family. I'll try to get a post or so in.

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Checking in --

The Fourth "DancingMad" Vote Count

"I hate, hate, hate, hate, HATE YOU!"

Freeze your eggs for me.

SC, the vote for you is a reflection of ambivalence about SP/Glork. I'd lean toward voting SP between those two atm, I think.

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I have to say that SP was a total sweetheart in Fables mafia. SP+DGB = <3scumfriends4evar<3

On the other hand, the list of SPexploits doesn't appear to have much to do with this game, even if Glork kinda baited it.

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Slicey's in this game? Neat.

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Note to self: Wouldn't put it past UK to put the actual Miller ability on a Mafioso - it's the kind of thing I would do, and UK follows the Tar school of modding.

Uh. What would that even mean?

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SB pulls this same act in every game in my experience. She has yet to be scum in a game with me.

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Prod received. I am reading the thread, but sort of don't see anything new worth commenting on. I still have scummish on SC, ambivalence on Glork/SP biased scum on SP, and neutral-town on SB.

Would love it if anyone wants to ask me anything.

Happy scumday! I hope you enjoyed the new prod I gave you that you just responded to

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For what it's worth, I just took a Physiology test. So I did kinda have an excuse. ^^

Thank ye.

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Other than what I already said, I could see Leech as scum, especially if Glork and SP are both town. Mod voting is cute, but probabilistically anti-town, he's framing SB's play as scummy when it is null at best via meta IMO, and he's lurking. I mean, we're sort of all lurking a little except for you, but ye know.

But I've never played with Leech before.

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I don't know how I feel about farside's pressure on SB. With three parties implicated -- SC/Glork/SP -- I don't see a scum motivation in going for a wagon elsewhere, unless they're quite certain that a townwagon will follow to completion without them. Since SP has been winning for some time and several people off the wagon have expressed interest, I think SB is unlikely to be scum with SP.

On the other hand, yeah, calling out people for calling you out for lurking is scummy IMO. I don't think I've seen her play that card before, and certainly not as frequently as recently.

SB, why does Tar get the vote over farside (whom you called out for basically the same reason)?

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^ I would agree with that if SP were the only feasible wagon, but not given that she had SP/Glork/SC to choose from (edit: but see below). Put another way, ignoring the issue doesn't make her look any townier than helping alternawagon, so she's hurting herself without benefit given scumfriendSP IMO.

That said, you having 0 votes on you means that your wagon wasn't really there, and the same with our already being close to deadline. So it's not as strong a conditional as I thought it was. <_<

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^ Yeah, but there weren't really two rival wagons. I just sort of assumed you had one because I was personally ambivalent between you and SP. <_<

So I'm not as sure about it as I would otherwise be about it.

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I'm excited for fresh blood.

Vote: Extension

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As I'm rereading a few people I just remembered something.
SC: You were in the last insane game where there were miller claims going on at the start. Why would you wait a few post before claiming miller in this game?

!

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^ Nah, it's an allusion to a game we played together where I was convinced he was SK starting D2. Gives me warm feelings to use it. He was actually normal scum IIRC.

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MO is my boyfriend. <3

Haylen, come and be my girlfriend, please. <3

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I read through page 8 of the old game. Thoughts:

1. Scum (correctly in general for that case and in that case) indicated that the 3rd Miller claimer is less likely to be scum because the first 2 had been framed as claim and counterclaim. This is a little different from our situation, though, because multiple Millers no longer appeared out of the ordinary.

2. OMG tajo is a baby <3

3. UK's flavor made me laugh. XD

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Ha, I have a new name!

My vote for SC is a reflection of my prior ambivalence about Glork/SP. I wouldn't really dispute that it was bad/weak reasoning. Nothing has really happened to convince me that I was wrong, though, least of all page 12, where he (for the second time) backs down mainly because you tell him to AFAICT.

I'm not crazy about your pontification about possibility/requires tbh. Part of scumRhetoric is overemphasizing certain possibilities over others. Using language like "requires" is one (inelegant) way to do that.

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I'm not crazy about your pontification about possibility/requires tbh. Part of scumRhetoric is overemphasizing certain possibilities over others. Using language like "requires" is one (inelegant) way to do that.

I'm confused, could you explain both where and how I do this in greater detail?
Cause this sounds like what I'm trying to say glork was doing, and pointing it out doesn't mean I was doing it. But I may be misunderstanding your point here.

This is the sequence of events IIRC:

1. SC says that Glork must be scum because he was disproportionately sure I was town.
2. Glork points out that some town roles know that people are town, so SC's "must" language is misleading.
3. SC says "my bad" and retracts his argument
*time passes*
4. MO says that Glork was wrong to do "2," because he was relying on an overly literal reading of SC's "must be scum" bit.
5. Iec says that it's not inappropriate to do what Glork did in "2," because scum sometimes deliberately turn "X or Y" situations apparent "X" situations with rhetoric that misrepresents something as certain rather than possible.

Your 275 also gets a little theory-heavy.

(Off-topic: All the text on this site just got really small O.o)

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^ HOORAY

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OK, then; I agree with you about that. I thought you were effectively targeting Glork for rhetorical moves that you were yourself guilty for (though at the opposite extreme), but it looks like your position is more nuanced than that.

The SC->SB thing is similarly fine.

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OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

Thank you, Miss Kitten. <3

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I totally missed MO's cute chart. Looks accurate, too, as far as I'm concerned, messiness notwithstanding.

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Uh. So why are you voting SB?

Also, given that you don't like that DGB chose to push the SC part of the wagon, why would that make you *less* suspicious of SB?

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Oh, OK. By "lack of anything informative scum," I thought you meant "low activity means it's hard to say that she's scummy" rather than literally "she is scum of the "lack-of-anything-informative" type." I thought that was weird because I remembered you attacking her earlier.

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^ That is a legitimate alternate interpretation of your post on SB, but it's not the way I read the same post you're alluding to IIRC.

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Yeah, you included people on my PRE-GAME LIST! >:O

SP doesn't like us.

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OMG MISS KITTEN <3

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^ Poor Elli.

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I never see a player admit to being NK that wasn't town.

Meaning "he may or may not be scum, but I don't think he's really NK-proof if he's scum"?

Scum claim it here and here in my experience -- accurate in only one of those cases IIRC. The believe the latter is SC (same player) doing it to look like SK to *avoid* the lynch, though.

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^ Uh. Huh.

O.o

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^ Uh. Whyzat?

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KEKEKEKEKE

I am already voted him tho unf.

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"Risk-taker"

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I'm surprised that SC wasn't hammered in the interim there. It probably would have appeared relatively blameless. May point to scum already being on the wagon, or to SC being scum.

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He simulposted with me, so I hadn't seen it. They might do so because the masons haven't been outed yet. Is Tar implying that the masons all claimed to one another already or something?

Since Tar's statement came so far after SC started being at L-1, I don't think that affects the plausibility of my statement.

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Also, since MO already posted, Percy messed up his fakeclaim in that Nouns mafia game I already posted.

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I see it differently. I feel scum are on SC's wagon out of fear at this point and are pushing for the lynch.

I think that entails seeing it the same way. ^^

Though I am leaning slightly toward the alternative possibility.

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There are three possibilities:

1. SC was not hammered because he is scum and his scumfriends want to lynch Elli.
2. SC was not hammered because there are already too many scum on his wagon, and they didn't want a full house, or there was already a full house. (So, 2+ scum on the wagon.)
3. SC was not hammered because people just sort of weren't online. (A reach on its own IMO)

I'm still voting SC because I think "1" is simplest given vibe + some behavior inconsistent with his claim. The only thing going for "2" is that he had crumbed vig a bit.

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PLZ SHOW THE ERROR OF MY WAYS.

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So your argument is that the crumbs outweigh everything else?

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Scum are experts at that, too, ye know.

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EBWOP: Before your fix.

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UK, I thought you were talking about this.

@ MO, "want to lynch Elli" doesn't necessarily imply "are currently voting Elli." Given that "1" is correct, my best guess for scumfriends would be Tar and dram. I'm not convinced that that kind of speculation is very productive before a flip, though.

Uh...no

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If it's a condition where a given player being scum meant that there weren't enough scumfriend-able players to make a scumteam (as you implied), then it is a decent exercise. I have illustrated that that condition is not met IMO. Going the extra step and trying to independently evaluate all probable n by x by x scumteams without flip information is unlikely to be very efficient, though. I was just preempting you.

Tar voted SP, then moved to SB(=Elli). He only HFoS'd SC when SC followed him to SB upon being put under pressure for the SP suspicion. This is highly consistent with Tar-SC scumfriends IMO.

Slicey/dram is a non-entity slot, so no, I haven't said anything about him. He's the 3rd scumfriend by PoE, mostly. The Tar vote is RVS-tier. Also, while it's true that dram's activity was about half as great the 19th as before (consistent with having an exam), he still managed to post 10 times in 6 distinct games. So I could see his lower priority in this game being an attempt to finish with his vote on a scumfriend without being implicated in either legitimately bussing a scumfriend or contributing to a mislynch. But that's a weaker proposition -- his inclusion is mainly PoE.

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EBWOP: Looks like one of those games is one he's modding. So that makes it 9 posts in 5 games as a player.

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So, if I were like GLORK IS SCUM, but it was very improbable that there were enough people to pair with Glork to make a traditionally-sized scumteam because of various things, then talking about scumfriends D1 would be a legitimate exercise to indicate that Glork was probably non-scum. But I've pointed out plausible SC scumfriends, so that condition is not met.

Uh, that's a pretty default reading of his play IMO given SCum. Also, I don't think I really present his vote for SP as a strong statement; I just state it. Alsoalso, I could just as easily ask why Tar lampshading wagoning and so forth (implicitly) makes SC-Tar less probable. I don't think it affects it either way.

I didn't do anything too scientific. I did it all after you asked me to (i.e. in a few minutes). This was the whole process:

1. I doubt anyone would be bussing when an SB is still in sight. (A possible exception is Haylen, who joined the lynch just after SC's dubious pratfall, but this was still meh.) So I decided to look elsewhere.
2. Then I looked at the SB wagon and ruled out you and farside because you have +town points atm.
3. Tar didn't have any town points, so I glanced through his iso and found that it was highly consistent with SC-Tar.
4. dram remained. Lonely vote on a presumed scumfriend and lower priority on this game from him sealed the deal.

HOWEVER, I gotta say that I totally forgot about the Leech/Yos slot. He wasn't on UK's VC on this page, which is what I used to evaluate players. So that's also a possibility. Haven't checked him.

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EBWOP: 2nd paragraph is about Tar. When an SB

lynch

is still in sight. Edits didn't go through.

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If SCSK, SCSK would be dead already.

If scum is afraid of vigSC, that scum is probably Haylen, unless you're implying they picked up on the crumbs.

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@ MO, no, positing connections and positing "top suspects" are totally different things. For example, I would not support a lynch on either Tar or dram unless someone produced a principled case and showed why they were scummy independent of SC. That's why I don't think building a house of cards with scum connections D1 is a very productive exercise.

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I'd probably maybe support a lynch on Elli if it came down to it, even though I've defended he and SB all game except for just after he replaced in. I suppose he's my other "top suspect" as such.

Also, I have a crush on Elli and consequently have a slightly irrational desire to refrain from killing him.

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Having just read through Leech, yep, I think that's most plausible given SCum. Namely, Leech and Tar and SC all voting SP is a bit extreme.

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^ That's @ the first bit, I guess?

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^ Huh? Are we talking about Tar bussing Elli or Tar bussing SP?

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I guess we could try to direct SC if we lynched Elli. Normally, Elli would be a no-brainer, but it's not as if scum is able to kill SC if he's town.

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Daykiller would do it.

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^ Hmm. That's a neat flavor angle.

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Time is short? OK. I'll acquiesce.

Unvote; Vote: Ellibereth

L-1'd.

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Why doesn't SP's post make any sense? I don't understand.

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Yeah, I meant to type "Why does it make sense?"

Is he just alluding to Yos's "because I think he's more likely scum" bit?

Preview edit: Oh, I see. That only applies if the neighbors all claimed to one another. Which. I mean. I would hope they haven't.

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These are the players I would contribute to lynching today:

Tar-Elli-SC

But only Elli is feasible, which sort of doesn't bode well, but I don't think it's been typical Elli play, either. He's only giving us crumbs to fend off an attack; he's not doing much analysis of his own.

MO, why is that relevant? Just posting in the QT would constitute neighborhood status. That doesn't mean they said HAY I AM THE NURSE and so on.

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OOK. THAT INDEED MAKES SENSE.

I confused SP's Yos quote with a response to when Glork was like LET'S GET EVERYONE TO CLAIM PLEASE. So then SP's post made no sense.

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Dude, they're not masons. They're neighbors.

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Hi guys. I can post here, too.

I dunno why Elli sort of didn't play the game. That's not like him.

Glork's Yos quote is a good one.

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BTW: LOST finale made me throw up in my mouth a little.

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Really?

So, do you think I'm scum?

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Now I feel bad for killing my favorite person except for DGB and maybe a few other people.

SORRY ELLI.

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In my experience, SP is scum in 100% of games. That's like 4+/4+ or something. He has been nonsense in all of them.

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In my experience, SP is scum in 100% of games. That's like 4+/4+ or something. He has been nonsense in all of them.

Aw come on. We were scum together with him. I've never seen him make as much sense as he does here.

Isn't that pretty consistent with what I typed?

But I think he's slightly less sensible here than in the other games, if anything. He usually doesn't get this weird until after he's caughtscum.

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Well, I suppose that clarifies the source of the extra kill. Kinda. But the other could be an insane doctor, or whatever term she's using, maybe. It would also appear to imply 3 scum 1 SK. So town barely has a majority.

SC needs to post.

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Psychologists traditionally tame SKs.

Yeah, but have I ever been one for tradition :V?

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There were 2 kills. Extra means the 2nd one. "Other" is used interchangeably. The gist is "Psychologist implies SK, but scalpel flavor implies insane doc."

My entire prior-hypothesized scumteam (which I came up with in conversation with you, no less) remains alive, so it should be obvious who I think is scum.

I haven't done a reread yet, so that may or may not change.

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EBWOP: 2nd above doesn't indicate the order that UK presented them in. It just means, well, "extra."

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Why do you think iec's statements suggest a third kill?

Fos: Dramonic

This interests me, though.

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You're being ridiculously nit-picky with the first. My point is that you framed my play as if my reads were somehow mysterious, whereas that makes utterly no sense, and it's oddest of all for you to make a statement like that, because they were expressed most clearly in interactions with you.

I don't think I have ever not been on a deadline wagon in my life, except for D1 in Rabbit Doubt ages and ages ago (where my only town read was being lynched), or if I express willingness to hammer and someone else beats me to it. So this is a playstyle thing. I don't blame you for commenting on it, though. IIRC, someone misrepresented/made an error on how much time was left to deadline at that point, which is the basis of my willingness.

I changed my mind on Elli because Elli wasn't playing like Elli and, after I think it was farside or Glork or someone who pointed out differences between this and OS, SB didn't really play like SB either. My only experience with both players was town, so...

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Because I am a wimp and always cave. Then I hate myself when I lose the game.

That is really all there is to it.

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Come to think of it, I think I actually said that Elli was my other top suspect, didn't I? So yeah.

I would have expected townElli to show better evidence that he had read the thread. All we got is MY WAGON HAS SCUM and unexplained town reads IIRC.

Meta is pretty great. I am sometimes too lazy to mess with it, though.

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I'd probably maybe support a lynch on Elli if it came down to it, even though I've defended he and SB all game except for just after he replaced in. I suppose he's my other "top suspect" as such.

Also, I have a crush on Elli and consequently have a slightly irrational desire to refrain from killing him.

Here.

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As for who I think is scum at this point, I don't really have a town read on any of you tbh. This is how I would tier you guys (NB: this is just "follow your heart"-grade):

Townier

SP
farside

Meh

MO (Manner of attack today is weird. Reminds me a little of Twilight, but not quite that bad.)
DGB (She is historically fairly good at judging me

Scummier

Haylen (here via vacuity, mainly)
Dram (see above)
SC (the only reason I hesitate to give him his own lower tier is via outguessing)
Tar (literally no reason to think he's town AFAIK)

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EBWOP: She is historically fairly good at judging me, and she has some implicit meta tell on me this game that doesn't make any sense to me. And she only started to be suspicious of me after I said nice things about her (which isn't a buddying fear response for Iec->DGB, because I do that in every game I play with her, and that is not the typical response when we're both town.

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Clarify what you mean by "better evidence" did you feel there was something TownElli would've commented on in particular that wasn't? Elli explained those reads...

For example, I might have expected posts reflective of a comprehensive readthrough followed by a tiered scumlist. Or something. I have no recollection of a satisfactory explanation from Elli for his town reads, but I may be mistaken. I mostly recall lots of joking around.

Also, to clarify, technically, you didn't have meta supporting that elli would play this way as scum, correct?

I have never played with scumElli, nor have I read a game with scumElli. So I didn't have reason to believe that Elli would play THIS way, no. I did have reason to believe he would be a different Elli as scum, though.

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How could anyone possibly be that careless, especially given two alleged Mod warnings?

Post time stamps on the alleged PMs if UK will let you.

That would be a modkillable offense. Too close to quoting mod correspondance, or faking it.

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A dayvig would probably kill you, though, right? So. Uh. Be careful what you wish for.

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She's awfully strict. Everyone's always let me give them.

Estimate, then.

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Ugh, is that the best you can do?

Well, it's unlikely to get too far, anyway. UK posted elsewhere on the site an hour before and 20 minutes after his claim. If anyone had outstanding PMs from UK received at that point, that might confirm his circumstances. But it's a longshot.

I'm slightly skeptical in that he doesn't appear to have worked very hard or to've haggled much with regard to leeway associated with the timestamps. Were I in his situation, I would have seen whether I could do something like "around 10 o clock" at least. But this is also UK we're talking about, so....

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If it could be demonstrated that SC did receive PMs at the appropriate times, that would indicate that he was less likely to be lying and less likely to be scum.

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But Icerink's wincon requires him to claim otherwise.

This is a very lazy case, DGB. It is not at all similar to the methods I regularly see you employ as town. Give us something more substantial.

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At least with magnus I understand where he is coming from. Switching votes after saying you didn't think SB/Elli was scum and then turning around and voting was the most damning case and view.

Well, it turns out that I *DID* say that Elli was my second suspect. (Granted, I'd totally forgotten about doing so, so it's almost irrelevant, even if it might indicate he didn't really read me as carefully/critically as he'd implied.)

dram, if you think DGB doesn't have reasons for her reads when she's town -- whether she shares all of them are not -- then you do not know townDGB very well.

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V/LA through Tuesday. Visiting family, and then I have a big exam Tuesday morning. I'm an addict, so you will probably not notice a difference in my activity, but just so ye know.

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@ dram, I missed that that question was originally directed at me. I probably should've put you into the Meh tier earlier. I put you in Scum tier because the connections put you with SC and Tar before. The fact that Yos was town makes that even more likely.

Granted, the fact that I wasn't killed implies that that whole version of reality may not be accurate. So that's making me reevaluate a little.

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Unless DGB like fell into a hole all over the site for the past few days, I think she's probably scum.

Is there anything that makes DGB-Tar improbable? I am yet to reread.

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I've never played with Tar before, but I get bad feelings about him in this game. Could be playstyle related. I could probably reason out why I feel that way with a reread, but that's all I've got right now.

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kk, reading Tar again -->

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1. Low overall output.

2. Tar is a player who has probably played with SB before. As such, the early attitude toward her posts -- which aren't really much different from her posts anywhere else, or that was my impression at the time, at least -- isn't a very principled position.

3. Tar seems to have this weird internally-justified fondness with claiming things (in my view) unnecessarily. He's done this elsewhere that I've seen, so it may be a playstyle thing. But it rubs me the wrong way.

4. Hmm. I'd forgotten about the apparent "exploiting loopholes" violation. UK has a peculiar notion about exploitation since it just looks like he's crumbing, but I suppose I don't know the ability.

However, being reminded of this bit kinda changes my mind. Unless scum can recruit only a specific player or something, I think Tar's crumbs imply town alignment unless they're totally made up.

5. Does multiscum mean "multiple scum teams"?

After getting a little bit farther through D1, I think the bad feeling on Tar came from how much he was pushing on SB when I didn't think SB's play was really much different from her normal play. The simplest explanation I could come up with for myself was that he was pushing a wagon on a player with a scummier playstyle a la zwet rather than a wagon based on more principled analysis. And Tar was clearly a player who cared about meta, so that seemed weird.

It doesn't look as bad on reread owing to the crumbs. I'd have to attribute disproportionate magnificent bastard-ness to him for that to be a scum move.

I think I am now converted to wanting to lynch SP. The long wagon on SC helps convince me, especially given that it was a major wagon. Also, the fact that one of the lurkers (Leech/Yos) flipped town incrementally increases the probability that active players were scum.

But I want to read through the VCs myself to make certain that DGB isn't cherry-picking. That kind of thing is precisely what I wanted from her, even if I usually get a much more robust analysis.

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Nah, I totally didn't notice the admittedly very blatant breadcrumb the first time through. I did vaguely remember the "I have an ability that may not matter all game and is kind of a scummy one tbh" moment, but the only response I had to that was .

Other factors are that SC is always sort of scummy, and sometimes it's just SC and sometimes he's scum, and that Glork thought so, and, certain events notwithstanding, Glork is not exactly an idiot.

I didn't mention those reasons because they are not very good reasons.

Also, I would have to reread SC and make sure that DGB isn't cherry-picking before I'm settled on that, anyway, so I wasn't in LET'S MAKE A SANDWICH-mode.

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UWA, I screwed up. All the SCs in that post should be SPs. My mistake. Not that that affects your post.

As far as SC goes. Well. I would like it if he were scum because then I would have been right. But I'd rather do it DGB's way to emotionally hedge my bets with regard to being right/winning.

It is an irrational thing to do, but it is also what I am doing.

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*INTROSPECTION*

I would never ever present myself that way as scum. Ever.

*/INTROSPECTION*

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To explain that pre-UWAA post -- for some reason, I had a weird moment where I was convinced that you meant SP by SC and were using the word "rescind" incorrectly (probably because I hadn't mentioned SC in ages and couldn't figure out why you were bringing him up). Senior moment at age 23.

But the UWAA post does accurately characterize my feelings about SC.

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No, that's not what I said.

In my heart of hearts, a part of me thinks he is scum. But, owing to the majority feeling differently, I am content to do what they want while privately thinking differently. The reason for this is that the main reason I think SC is scum is that that is the impression I get from him; it isn't based on something more formal/reliable like VC analysis.

The benefit of this irrational way of going through life is always being able to privately say "I told you so." And if you can't, at least you win.

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I am giving you an answer that is 100% honest. It is luckily not the same as the answer I would give you as scum.

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Hey, speaking of which --

MO, if the Tar breadcrumb was so crucial and salient, why didn't you point it out yesterday when you were asking me about my suspects? You seemed to accept my triumvirate pretty quickly.

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EBWOP: where "accept" means "recognize as a legitimate perspective" rather than "agree with," obvs.

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1. That wasn't the impression that I got yesterday at all. Actually, you went so far as to call it "excellent" or something IIRC.
2. You didn't answer my question.

Cleaned up double post. And made the thread disappear for a few minutes. It was p. cool

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Slicey/dram is a non-entity slot, so no, I haven't said anything about him. He's the 3rd scumfriend by PoE, mostly. The Tar vote is RVS-tier. Also, while it's true that dram's activity was about half as great the 19th as before (consistent with having an exam), he still managed to post 10 times in 6 distinct games. So I could see his lower priority in this game being an attempt to finish with his vote on a scumfriend without being implicated in either legitimately bussing a scumfriend or contributing to a mislynch. But that's a weaker proposition -- his inclusion is mainly PoE.

Excellent. I was worried that you were just going to say he was lurking, and you basically just picked a lurker at random, but if it was process of elimination, I would love to see the details.

Doesn't read that way to me. YMMV, I guess.

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Tar, which of those SPs is an SC?

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So, I'd vote SP, but I don't want to put him at L-1.

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Especially given that SocioPath vote: Socio is a BAD lynch today - even if Iec is town (big if), Haylen is still much more likely to be scum.

Long all-town wagon on town is kinda funky. What makes you so sure that SP is town? (Yeah, I get that you think I could be scum to eliminate THAT problem, but ye know.)

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Hardly. The kind of inconsistencies I've made are towntells if anything, and the nature of my defense is not that which I would employ as scum.

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JUSTICE ALWAYS PREVAILS.

But I can't really blame people too much. I'm ambivalent about SP, too. That's why I don't wanna vote SP to let Haylen hammer, etc.

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What does it "have to do" with?

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I was looking back a few things and saw something Glork mentioning that he reverse's the sanities of a player. So if a sane cop investigates him they would get insane results. If a sane doc targets him then a sane doc turns insane. Would that explain his kill? I see a scapel slash. That to me indicates doctor.
So if Glork indicates this possiblity why would a doctor target him during the night?

Dumb doctor. Or they didn't know/misjudged their sanity. Or there's an SK/scum player with doctor flavor.

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1. I don't know what you're even talking about in the first case
2. The second one SHOWS attention to detail. Tar claimed to have both a scum read and town read on you, but didn't list a read on SC. He made the same mistake I'd just made on the previous page.
3. I disagree. In this circumstance, there's no reason to vote you until I'm ready to lynch you.

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I have never played with townSP ever. He was SK to my mafia in OS and he was scum with me in Fables. There's also some ongoing stuff (where we have both flipped). His play in this game is not different from his play in those games IMO. On the other hand, I think I read through an old townSP game once, and he was pretty scummy-seeming to me in that one, too. So he's not a player I'm very confident about reading in general.

(Also want to see DGB's town meta on SP.)

In spite of that, DGB's listed VC is pretty persuasive with regard to one of us being scum, especially if SC is town. So ye know.

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If I were scum, I would have invented a universe where there was maximal consistency with my prior play, and I would try to position myself as the logical party/voice of reason. I would also more aggressively position a specific player as The Bad Guy. For real-life examples of what I'm talking about, refer to D3/D4 of Fables or to D3 of Disgaea D3.

In Fables, a just-NK'd daycop's mason claimed a guilty result on me, and I responded by linking a bunch of connections on the part of the mason to deadscumfriendSP and fabricating/misreading inconsistencies in his claim. He was lynched. Then D4 I avoided certain suspicion by claiming that I was masons with my remaining scumfriend (DGB) and cherry-picking D1 exchanges between the two of us as breadcrumbs. NL D4 (I had been made voteless), no kill N4 (there was a busdriver alive), then we lynched the busdriver D5 to win.

In Disgaea, a Cop claimed a guilty result on me D3, and I used context (I had just let slip that I was not his rolename, e.g.) to make it seem like he was fakeclaiming. Then I argued that it made more sense to lynch UK (not the Cop), because fear of scumfriendUK's death was what led the Cop to fakeclaim something that would out him, etc. This one almost worked, but the last townie wanted to lynch the Cop proper and got suspicious that I didn't want to do so (he suspected Mafia Usurper shenanigans; I just didn't want my scumfriend to have to follow me to the other wagon), so he lynched me.

I could give other examples, but they are ongoing-where-I've-flipped.

Only other example is that I did have a little bit of a long wagon D1 in OS as scum, but it was because people thought I was scum with townVaya. Then I was NK'd by SPSK N2.

So, that's my self-analysis. As town, instead of trying to make up a Fairy Godfather to save me, I just reflected a little and answered honestly. The result isn't particularly compelling, but it accurately characterizes my feelings about SC.

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Also, Icerink is behaving like caught scum giving up, which I interpret as him being caught scum giving up.

You know better than almost anyone that that is not how I (historically) respond to being "caughtscum."

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The context of the first case was to point out that my feelings about SC were not the same as what I would give as scum. It's basically the same thing as my 713.

You could criticize it for being self-metaing (even if it's in no way subtle), I guess, but the "attention to detail" claim makes no sense at all, since it's a meta claim and not a claim based on analysis of this game per se.

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I hadn't thought about it for obvious reasons. Are you asking me to make something up? What would that prove? That I'm creative? Still --

Off the top of my head, I probably would have kept arguing strongly that SC was scum. SCum makes it more plausible that DGB's VC analysis is confounded by no one feeling it necessary to bus with so many alternate wagons. So it would make it possible for both SP and me to be town, so I'd have the possibility of swaying people who're weakly sold on DGB's VC dichotomy between us, but lean scumIec.

To do it, I'd read SC in iso and cherry-pick scum connections and scummy statements and connections, and I'd emphasize his reluctance to push UK on time stamps.

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1. That has to be faked.
(2. Would not be a gambler's fallacy; would be math.)
3.

Unvote; Vote: Haylen

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Which part are you lolwut-ing?

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1. All three of the players SP listed in the bit you quoted are not in this game. He was talking about his reads in a game that DGB had alluded to. I fail to believe that you are paying THAT little attention to the thread, so I think your statement was a failed attempt to lampshade that you are not paying attention to the game, maybe to deal with Tar's concerns.

2. As the subset of players in this game increases, the prior probability that said subset includes scum increases. That is not the gambler's fallacy; it is math. This part is probably a legitimate error or misunderstanding on your part, so I put it in parentheses.

3. I'm voting you because Tar appears to have secret information on you of some kind (probably via QT stuff; I dunno), I think Tar is probably town on account of the nature of his crumbs, and your comeback post was literally too awful to be believed.

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I think DGB is scum. Little evidence of careful reading, little evidence of thoughtfulness in her read on me. Those are the opposite of townDGB in my experience.

Haylen's last few posts were super-awful, though.

Tar is my super-town friend. farside is my regular-town friend.

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I agree with SP's last.

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Vote: Extension

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However, you have no luck finding page 2.

Me thinks this might be related to Haylen's role, because we only have the first page of sanities.

That is. Oddly specific. O.o

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Oh, I see. I'd figured that we were going to get access to that list after D1 one way or the other, but the flavor does link it up to Elli, I suppose.

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It's basically a Doc with Blockall, than know when somebody is going to kill them. This lockdown thing that's going on now is my fault (well, more specifically Kairyuu's), what happened was at the beginning of the game, Kairyuu had to choose a night were all actions and night talk would be blocked. This includes the mafias and apparently, the Cabal's aswell. I am unsure why he decided to use it at this time, all I know is that he did.

So, your ability is that no one will be able to do anything N2? Is that correct?

And I second MO's question.

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^ It looks like she's claiming it blocks the NK, too.

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Unvote

.

It looks like Haylen's been at L-1 for ages, but I'm leaning DGB atm.

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Namely, it's a little weird that DGB didn't just hammer outright, unless I'm doing the VC order wrong in my head. But I think she's currently channeling the muse of caughtscumSP, so.

Haylen's ability is extremely pro-town, as it basically gives town a free lynch. So I think she's town. On the other hand, Tar did indicate that his ability would help scum, I think, so that may imply intentional subversion on the part of Miss Kitten.

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Whatever you pretend to think of me, which seems to be bogus momentum from Spyrex's meta of me

wut.

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It looks like I fail at Haylenmath. She wasn't at L-1, after all. Now the only piece that wouldn't fit fits fine.

Vote: DGB

. This is L-2. It would be L-1, but farside forgot to unvote.

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Vote: DGB

. This is L-2. It would be L-1, but farside forgot to unvote.

Icerink, you KNOW I'm town.

What makes you say that?

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That is, do you have a meta claim in there somewhere, or are you just being silly?

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Glork, Miller Cop, has been Scalpel Slashed Night One
Yosarian2, Psychologist, has been Shot Night One

I am going to hazard a guess...

Also, it is very unlikely that UK would refrain from at least informing DGB of who she targeted. She's pretty much claimed scum with that. She also ignored my question.

ALSO, the way to handle that kind of ability N1 is to target someone on the scummy side. The killing is great (~50% chance), and the protection isn't likely to happen (chance of role existing*~1/(n-1)*1/(n-1)*100% chance). It's bogus that DGB just couldn't figure that out or something.

This also may explain the mystery of why scum would have hypothetically killed a relatively scummy player D1. The Yoskill flavor is still sorta weird, though.

Side note: if everyone knew DGB was an insane doc all along, why didn't any of you guys whine about her earlier? <_<

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^ I <3 u.

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EBWOP: "chance of

vig

role existing"

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You're 92? O.O

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I'll be NPH. You can be Patti Lupone.

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SP can be the one cheered up by cannibalism.

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Even fits Miss Kitten's little theme!

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Aww, she turned invisible.

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If DGB suspicion has already started to hit critical mass, it starts to be advantageous for her to squeeze another day out with a quicklynch, especially if it doesn't reveal anyone else. This should also explain the other.

So, Haylen, you're Normal Doc AND you got a fancy mass ability-block?

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Given a more intuitive reading of rule 7, DGB is flat-out lying.

And even if we allow her implicit premise that "random target" might mean "random target OR no target," we're forced to believe a lot of low-probability events (e.g. 1/13 for the chance of happening to land on "no action," and the chance that scum targeted Yos OR that there's another doctor out there who practiced on Yos, the more subjective probability that DGB would play in a scummy fashion as town, etc).

(Chance could be increased a little if it was just a mod error from Miss Kitten, in which case, ye know, there are worse reasons to lose a game.)

tl;dr ~

Kill the witch.

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^ Careful. Miss Kitten gets grouchy.

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^ "Can you post in the thread at night?"

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So, no much has happened on account of everyone watching the game, but I believe I'm at prod threshold so. Hello everyone.

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I'm here. No change in my views from what I missed. (I still want to lynch DGB.) But I don't need a prod.

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Does that mean you changed your mind about me, too, DGB?

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WAT. WE DUN GET MOAR TIME DUE TO THE SITE EXPLODING?

KILL THE WITCH PLEASE. NAO.

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FARSIDE, PLEASE BE MY GIRLFRIEND.

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Kill the witch, dram.

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Oh wait. DGB still explodes so long as she's winning at deadline.

Forgive my catastrophizing.

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KURSES. I demand a corpse QT. <_<

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V/LA until late Sunday. I may manage a post tomorrow morning. Posting in all my games.

Worst. Bah Post. Ever >=[!

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I thought farside's early play was easiest understood as scum, but everyone thought I was so wrong that I put her firmly into townworld from then on.

Tar was extremely heroic the day after I died. That is probably part of why he died.

I STILL have yet to play a game with SP where he is non-scum.

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At least DGB won. I was so sad that I had to lynch her.