Mini 482: Shrek Mafia - Game Over

[Mirth]

Random Vote: Pug89

[Mirth]

But the emo carebear is awesome ^_^ I want to give it a hug.

[Mirth]

Unvote: Pug

Vote: Grek

Unless I'm mistaken that's a fifth vote on Nox. (with Deliciousgoldfish, Camisade, Jex, and Inhimishallbe.) That makes L-2. If you're voting Nox for putting a third vote on Jex, why did you just put a fifth vote on Nox? Please explain yourself.

[Mirth]

If you're voting Nox for putting a third vote on Jex, why did you just put a fifth vote on Nox? Please explain yourself.

If the scum quicklynch, we find 2 scum for 1 townie. If they don't, we lose nothing.

Uh huh. How do you know Nox is a townie?

This also sounds like you're trying to push a lynch on Nox. We're now on page 2. Nox hasn't done anything lynch worthy at this point in time. Why are you being so hasty? Additionally, assuming that two other people vote Nox, how do you know that they'll both be scum? Could be that the scum either already voted Nox or just don't want to give themselves away by doing so now?

[Mirth]

I don't know, but her alignment doesn't matter. If she is scum and get's lynched, that's good. If she's scum and isn't, we lose nothing. If she is town and nobody quicklynchs, she is safe. If she is town and gets quicklynched we found some scummy people.

Wrong. At this point in time, we lose a whole day of potential information.

The only way she is going to get lynched is if 2 more people voted before anyone can unvote. Which would be realy scummy. I was offering the scum enough rope to hang themselves, both figuratively and literaly. Seeing as they did not take the bait, I

Unvote.

Again, the theory of two scum just jumping right on is flawed. It also looks even more suspicious that you're unvoting right now, especially after we called you out on the initial vote.

If two other people

quicklynch

Nox, they are scum. As in voting for her before anyone can unvote. If they have already voted, they can't vote again and nothing bad will happen.

Not necessarily. Trigger happy townies exist too. Could have been perfectly possible for two townies to pile right on. Also your lines of reasoning here don't really reconcile, like it doesn't matter if we get a myslynch or not.

[quote="Grek]
If the scum don't want to give themselves way, they don't vote and we can try some other way to find them.[/quote]

"If the scum don't want to give themselbes away"? What kind of statement is that? Why would the scum want to give themselves away? Sure, they might decide to sacrifice one or two of themselves at some point in a game, but right now its not particularly advantageous. This group of players has barely had time to get acquainted with each other. If a scum player were to sacrifice himself now, it doesn't do anything for the scum. They just lose a member. Scum sacrifice is, if played well, about redirecting suspicion. Deciding to get yourself lynched this early on day one, with most of the players not even contributing yet, doesn't do anything of this sort. You don't throw suspicion on or off anybody, because right now, most players have barely had time to greet each other, let alone do something either pro or antitown.

Also, we don't know how many scum there are (and also whether or not we have a Serial Killer). So even if one or two scum decides to sacrifice himself, the town still might not be in a particularly good situation, as the chance to gather information is lost.


On a totally unrelated note: Adam, I'm assuming your location is a reference to Atlas Shrugged?

[Mirth]

EBWOP

: Darn it. Tags didn't work. Let's hope this works now.

I don't know, but her alignment doesn't matter. If she is scum and get's lynched, that's good. If she's scum and isn't, we lose nothing. If she is town and nobody quicklynchs, she is safe. If she is town and gets quicklynched we found some scummy people.

Wrong. At this point in time, we lose a whole day of potential information.

The only way she is going to get lynched is if 2 more people voted before anyone can unvote. Which would be realy scummy. I was offering the scum enough rope to hang themselves, both figuratively and literaly. Seeing as they did not take the bait, I

Unvote.

Again, the theory of two scum just jumping right on is flawed. It also looks even more suspicious that you're unvoting right now, especially after we called you out on the initial vote.

If two other people

quicklynch

Nox, they are scum. As in voting for her before anyone can unvote. If they have already voted, they can't vote again and nothing bad will happen.

Not necessarily. Trigger happy townies exist too. Could have been perfectly possible for two townies to pile right on. Also your lines of reasoning here don't really reconcile, like it doesn't matter if we get a myslynch or not.

If the scum don't want to give themselves way, they don't vote and we can try some other way to find them.

"If the scum don't want to give themselbes away"? What kind of statement is that? Why would the scum want to give themselves away? Sure, they might decide to sacrifice one or two of themselves at some point in a game, but right now its not particularly advantageous. This group of players has barely had time to get acquainted with each other. If a scum player were to sacrifice himself now, it doesn't do anything for the scum. They just lose a member. Scum sacrifice is, if played well, about redirecting suspicion. Deciding to get yourself lynched this early on day one, with most of the players not even contributing yet, doesn't do anything of this sort. You don't throw suspicion on or off anybody, because right now, most players have barely had time to greet each other, let alone do something either pro or antitown.

Also, we don't know how many scum there are (and also whether or not we have a Serial Killer). So even if one or two scum decides to sacrifice himself, the town still might not be in a particularly good situation, as the chance to gather information is lost.


On a totally unrelated note: Adam, I'm assuming your location is a reference to Atlas Shrugged?

[Mirth]

Wrong. At this point in time, we lose a whole day of potential information.

I think that finding 2 scum day one is better than having alot of discussion day one. We can discuss the next day as well. The only special thing that happens day one is the random voting, and we are done with that part.

Okay, you lynch them, what next? Whom do you associate them with? If you lynch them right away, where exactly do you go from there? Sure, you can discuss day 2, pre lynching one of the people who dropped the last votes, but as this is early day one right now, a quicklynch would not give you any hints as to player interaction, so when you start day two, you start completely blind, with probably at least one more dead townie body. The only lead you have is the hammerer, and if it were a scum player dumb enough to hammer this early, well, the other scum would have any easy target to reflect blame onto. A scum sacrifice would make the others look more innocent. Again, I say quicklynch = bad. Why lynch randomly (we don't know Nox's alignment) when we could spend a few pages talking and make an educated guess.

I am unvoting because the scum didn't try to lynch Nox. Leaving my vote on her would be useless.

So what exactly is the point of taking your vote off?

I honestly doubt that there are 2 townies that would be dumb enough to vote for her. It would be two scum acting like 2 dumb townies in an attempt to get rid of a townie without geting lynched. I said that if she gets lynched the people that did it are most almost sure to be scum and only the scum would hammer her. Someone would unvote if she got to lynch-1 and the two voting didn't work together.

And yet you think two scum are dumb enough to quicklynch page 1? I call crap!logic on this. Also you are again talking like you are sure Nox is a townie. Why?

It is a figure of speech. Another way of saying "If the scum aren't going to try to lynch Nox and inadvertently make the town think they are scum." Not actualy deciding to give themselves away.

Crap!logic again. That is exactly what they would be doing with a quicklynch. You said that you don't think two townies are stupid enough to quicklynch, so why exactly do you think two scum are?

Also, we don't know how many scum there are (and also whether or not we have a Serial Killer). So even if one or two scum decides to sacrifice himself, the town still might not be in a particularly good situation, as the chance to gather information is lost.

In what situation would losing 2 scum be a bad thing for the town?

Read my actual comment more closely, please. I'm not saying scum dying is a bad thing. I'm saying that jumping right in to a lynch blindly is a bad thing. And that a waste of day 1 just makes it harder for the town later on, especially if the scum use one of their own as a scapegoat and successfully distance themselves from their less than bright partners.

Your whole argument is based on the mistaken, crap!logical assumption that L-2 = automatic quicklych by two less scum a few books short of a library. Furthermore, you seem convinced that Nox is town. Again, I ask why.

[Mirth]

To get you to stop complaining about it?

Sorry, but I'm like a dog. Once I get my teeth into something, I don't let go of it.

First, saying my logic is crap!logic without anything to back it up would be an ad hominem attack, which as you hopfuly know is a logical fallacy. It will only make your agrument weaker.

Second, the scum have an incentive to lynch Nox if she is a townie because they know her alignment. The town does not know her alignment and it is in there best intrest not to vote for her. If she is scum, both the town and the scum have reason not to vote for her and we can move on to something else.

It's not ad hominem, because it is in fact crap!logic by your own reasoning of it and I am not attacking you as a person. You said that two townies would not be stupid enough to hammer for a quicklynch, yet think that two scum would. The theoretical stupidity of the two scum in your example has no logical basis. Therefore your argument is crap!logic.

Why should we move on to something else? Your argument is clearly not satisfactory to at least a few other people besides myself.

If Nox is scum, then other scum could just as soon vote for her, as a means of distancing. And the town doesn't "know" anybody's alignment. Why would the town have no reason to vote for her is she is scum, exactly? I don't understand what you mean by this.

Also, by your own argument of two scum hammering, Nox could very well be scum since nobody hammered. Why not include that as a possibility if you're going to actually try to set a scum trap? (I don't think the lack of hammer proves anything though, since, as I've said, I don't think two scum are equally stupid enough to hammer a quicklynch.)

I realize that this is unlikly to work, but it isn't going to hurt us either so it's worth a shot. I don't know if Nox is scum, but if she is than the scum are unlikly to vote for her and we can use some other way of finding scum. You suggest something.

And yet you completely overlook this possiblity when you first claim your vote is a scum trap. Why? (I don't think it's a good test of anything, only disproving that scum aren't stupid enough to hammer, but it makes your argument less credible that you excluded it in the first place, since now it just looks like you're trying to come up with an explanation after the fact).

My suggestion of finding scum? Discussion. Like I'd like to know what everyone else thinks of this situation, since, so far, not very many people have been active.

[Mirth]

It's not ad hominem, because it is in fact crap!logic by your own reasoning of it and I am not attacking you as a person. You said that two townies would not be stupid enough to hammer for a quicklynch, yet think that two scum would. The theoretical stupidity of the two scum in your example has no logical basis. Therefore your argument is crap!logic.

The scum might have a good reason to vote for Nox, the town doesn't. That's why the scum might have voted for her when she is at lynch-2. It only makes sense to vote for her if the person voting is scum.

Sigh. My point is that quicklynching Nox, regardless of whether or not she is scum or town, is bad, even for scum. The scum have no good reason to quicklynch her even if she is town, because it would give them away. Thus there is no good reason to quicklynch Nox for the scum. The end.

Move on to some other way of finding scum besides using Nox as bait. Don't play dumb.

I'm not playing dumb. Your statement was unclear and seemed to refer to laying off the whole discussion, thus I took it as such.

We don't know if she is scum. The scum do. They might decide to go after her. The town does not know her alignment. We, the town, don't have a reason to go after her because we don't know if she is scum. I was hoping the scum would not realize that and vote for her, revealing themselves to us.

Again, you are assuming that the scum decide that giving themselves away DAY ONE to quicklynch a townie is a likely move. Again, I say this is a fallacy.

I considered that posibility. If she is scum, the only way for her to be used for distancing is if she gets lynched. The only way she is going to get lynched is if the scum quicklynch before the town can respond. If they quicklynch, the fact that they are using the lynch for distancing become aparrent.

Actually, if they quicklynch, there is no distancing. It is a stupid movie to quicklynch your own partner. (Scum will turn on their own if there is sufficient evidence from which to distance themselves, but if it is a random quicklynch, that's giving themselves and their partner away. Again, REALLY stupid move.) Also, if Nox is scum, your quicklynch scenerio fails to account for the possibility of a Cop. It is possible that Cop investigated Nox night one, decides to hammer her on impulse (if Cop did this, it wouldn't be a particularly smart move), and goes to get himself killed. But again, Scum would not distance off a random quicklynch if they are the last two votes.

Again, I considered it but didn't bother to type out what would happen in that situation because I thought it would be clear from what was already there.

This is not an answer.

I'm not going to argue this point any further, because you fail to understand the possibility that a quicklynch is not beneficial to the mafia if they are the ones dropping the hammer. Mafia dropping quicklynch hammer = giving themselves away = increasing their probability of losing = bad for mafia= unlikely to happen.

I would like to hear what everyone else has to say on this subject. Until then, Grek, I'm done arguing this point with you.

[Mirth]

Wasn't distancing, I just really don't buy Grek's "it was a trap" argument, and felt that it needed to be thoroughly demolished.

As for InHim, I don't find his vote any more suspicious than Jex's third vote or Nox's third vote. It sort of seems like he voted for Nox because Nox placed a non-random early third vote on Jex, and the "third vote=good enough" was more along the lines of a pressure to get more information vote than a bandwagon vote.

I find Nox's vote, even if it was just a joke, to be just as worthy of inquiry as InHim's, because an adorable emo CareBear doesn't strike me as a particularly valid reason to throw a third vote on someone about halfway down page one. Same for Jex's vote, even if that also was a joke, it pointed out the lack of validity Nox's vote had, and presented Nox as someone to move votes onto.

Overall, I find Grek's vote and unvote to be the most suspicious out of all of them, as the vote was only given a very flimsy reason after he was called on it, and the unvote was a "just leave me alone" unvote by his own admission. I also don't particularly like he he has written off gathering information day 1 as not particularly important.

Mod: can we please get a vote count?

Thank you.


And on a totally unrelated note: Adam, Francisco d'Anconia and Hank Rearden were totally more awesome characters.

[Mirth]

I am most definitely on the Mirth side in this particular discussion. She's right. However, I do not believe that this necessarily makes Grek scum. I'd like to see this game move onto other subjects as well.

Personally, the thing that really caught my eye was ben's vote in 37. Just saying "Good points, Vote". I think that was quite the scummy move. For me, I think I want to start there.

Vote: benhalkum

Eh, I don't know whether or not Grek's crap!logic makes him scum, but for now it seems like the best place to keep my vote.

I have a feeling that Ben's vote might be somewhat influenced by the fact that both of us are in Newbie 431, so I'm not paying much attention to the vote itself. What I don't like, however, is how he has obviously checked in to say that he's been on and hasn't answered the questions thrown at him about it. (After both Pug and Camisade asked.)

[Mirth]

As I've said, I just have a feeling, (as in I DON'T KNOW if that might have anything to do with it, it's just a thought, and when I say influenced, I didn't particularly mean consciously influenced, but maybe, subconsciously, Grek's arguments just seem better to him).

Why are you so quick to assume scumminess?

[Mirth]

Well, we do kinda have to start the game, you know.

I was under the impression we already started it.

I'm more interested in Ben's reasoning behind the vote and his failure to answer questions about it, though.

[Mirth]

Well, with being just a good guy I am only having to go off of suspecions and randomness like you guys.

You think without a shadow of a doubt Mirth is Town, then tell me. I'll go with my fellow good guys

Actually they don't, as it isn't very prudent to think, "without a shadow of a doubt" that anybody is town. Especially not on page three.

The question, which you still have not actually answered, is *why* you voted for me. It doesn't matter that you voted for me, it matters that you did not give a reason for doing so. What exactly is suspicious? Please point it out.

Also, I don't like the part where you basically claim town-alignment. What prompted this?

[Mirth]

Yup. In mafia, people are guilty until proven innocent with me. After all, we've got a quarter of our population trying to kill us!

I agree completely with this statement.

While I'm not happy with Ben's lack of an actual response, I'm going to keep my vote on Grek, as I'm even less happy with his actions up to this point.

[Mirth]

Jex, what made you change your vote?

[Mirth]

I would like to point out, in regards to Ben, that a day one vote does require an explanation, unless it's a random vote. Why? So that the rest of the town understands your thought process for the vote and could possibly futher investigate your suspect through questions your might have overlooked. Any bit of explanation helps the town. Obviously, your vote was not random, as you quoted a "reason."

[Mirth]

I did not lie at all. What I did was more like a cop not posting the names of the innocents he has found so they aren't nightkilled for being a confirmed innocent. Would you lynch a cop for that?

This sounds like you're breadcrumbing a claim. This strikes me as very very very not good. Multiple reasons for why:

1. This is day 1. You are not at L-1. In fact, unless I lost the ability to count, Adam is vote number 4 on you. To clear this up,

Mod: can we get a votecount, please? Thank you

There is another player who is also ringing major alarm bells. There is no need to claim or even breadcrumb right now.
2. This could be misinterpreted by the cop (if we have a cop) as a false claim and cause him to come out of hiding. Which is not good.
3. Confirmed innocents can actually be good for the town if there is definately a cop (and the cop is sane). Scum can't false claim without being called on it, and town players get a core group of people that they can trust, depending on how many confirmeds the cop has. Yes, they become targets at night, but during the day it raises the probability of catching scum. But this right now is a non issue. Why bring it up?

Also, on the topic of Jester/Villiage Idiot/what have you. I do not believe we have one in this game based on the fact that this is a mini and its not a very common role. Also, I'm in another game with Ben, and he's acting pretty much the same way. (I'm not sure what to make of him in either game, but I'm going to keep my eye on him because he is most certainly not being helpful).

And once again, keeping your "plan" secret is a moot point. We can argue it to infinity, but it will still be moot.

[Mirth]

Mirth, could you please explain why Grek deserves to die?

I don't know yet if I think Grek deserves to die. Don't put words in my mouth please. I find his gameplay poorly thought out and his backpedaling explanations to be total crap!logic. I really really don't like his fifth vote on Nox on page 1 and his ridiculous justification of it. (I'm not going to get into this again) I also really don't like how he even brought up the role of cop. I don't like speculation on power roles unless there are actual claims as such. Why? It sounds like fishing. I don't see a need to fish. Yes, his post wasn't exactly speculation, but why compared himself to the role of cop? This bothers me.

Additionally, the only other person who has been setting off my alarm bells thus far is Ben, and I really don't know what to think there. As I said, I'm currently in another game with him, and he's just as unsettling. I'm really not sure what to make of it. Newbie? Newbie-scum? Someone with a twisted sense of humor? I don't know. Even if the Mod does have a Jester in this game, it would be a bit too coincidental is Ben ended up with that role.

Right now my vote is on Grek mostly because I don't see a reason to move it. (The only person I would concievably move it to is Ben, because of unhelpfullness.) Right now I think Ben would be easier to lynch, with more people giving him grief than Grek. Either way, I am no where near ready for a lynch yet, as I am not satisfied with the day's amount of discussion thus far. My vote stays where it is though, as there is no immediate danger of a lynch and I am not satisfied with Grek. (I also don't think that keeping a pressure vote on Ben will yield anything remotely helpful).

Furthermore, I'm going to have to add Nox and a few other people to my list of people to keep a closer eye on. It bothers me that I keep being suspected of distancing. The distancing accusation makes it sound like you lot are a lot surer than I am about how, if Grek were lynched, he would turn out. (This however, is, of course, total WIFOM. As are your accusations of distancing.) As I've said before, I have a low tolerance for crap!logic.

[Mirth]

Grek, why specifically Haschel? Why not Camisade or Pug or Goldfish or InHim?

Haschel, I will concede that Grek's moves follow in a logical pattern, but I will stand firm that the logical pattern is innately flawed and thus does not count in his favor. Here is an example like Grek's logic:

T. All ravens are black.
L1. Everything that is black must be a raven.
L2. Microwaves are black, so they therefore must be ravens.
L3. Microwaves heat stuff up, so therefore ravens must also heat stuff up.
L4. I could use a raven to bake a potato.

While statements L 1-4 follow follow a logical pattern, the underlying principle is a false assumption. The problem I mainly see with Grek is not that he didn't state his theory immeadiately before the vote, but rather that he developed the theory at all. I honestly don't think that's a very well thought out plan, and therefore wonder if he thought of it before he placed the vote, or hastily threw something together after the fact.

Also, my problem with the unvote is this: After we jumped on him for the vote, there was already 1 unvote, and nobody would have voted Nox after that because of the interrogation that would surely follow. (Unless Nox did something really scummy). So unless his vote was meant to go somewhere else, the unvote was in fact unnecessary. No immediate threat or better suspect. It seemed like a "just leave me alone" unvote, which is what it basically was. Leave him alone, why?

Also, I think Nox's alignment does very much matter, because Grek says he voted under the assumption that two scum would lynch. Now this assumption basically translates to Grek thinking Nox is a townie. If Nox is scum, the two imaginary scum have even less incentive to hammer. Not only do they lose one of their buddies, but they set themselves up for a load of suspicion the next day. Assuming for a second that two scum are dumb enough to quicklynch on the first page, why would they quicklynch one of their own? Thus Grek's plan implicitely assumes Nox is town. Why? We don't know if Nox is town. If Nox *is* town, then Grek is even more suspicious. If Nox *isn't* town, then Grek possibly looks more credible as a victim of badly utilized logic. So Nox's alligment matters here.

[Mirth]

Why should you vote Grek? I don't know *if* you should vote Grek. Just because I'm suspicious of him doesn't mean you have to be. The whole of my case rests on his refusal to acknowledge that his plan was innately flawed.

I see no point in unvoting him as he's three votes away from a lynch, so my vote poses no actual threat at the moment. I'm not going to move my vote off him unless one of two things happens: 1. someone else acts suspicious. 2. Somebody adds a sixth vote to Grek before I'm satisfied with my opinion of him.


Why are you trying to get me to act like I'm trying to push a lynch on Grek? Yes, I'm obviously the most vocal about his crap!logic, but my arguments all boil down to how I don't agree with his premise and how I don't like his staunch support of it even after it has been debunked quite thoroughly. I have stated before that I'm not convinced that he's scum, just that I find him to be one of the most suspicious people here at the moment.

[Mirth]

Or I'm keeping my attention focused on the person who a) gives reason for suspicion and b) is likely to provide information in response to my actions.

You also haven't answered my question.

[Mirth]

However, let's assume I honestly believed that I could use a raven to bake a potato.

If I ever get a signature, I am so quoting that (with your permission of course.)


I have a couple of questions for you, though:

1. Why do you think InHim is scummy? I honestly don't see anything all that scummy coming from him (yet, anyways. He hasn't posted much.)
2. Why do you think Ben is scummier than Grek? (I'm not saying that I don't, I have made no choice in regards to that, regardless of the fact that my vote is on Grek at the moment, but I would like to hear your opinion here.)

As to why I keep focusing on Grek well, he keeps arguing with me, and I can't back down from an argument ^_^

I would also like to hear some more from Pug, Camisade, Jex, and Nox, on top of InHim and Goldfish. (I would also like to hear some more from Ben, but I'm not getting my hopes up there.)

[Mirth]

Oh i didn't know that. I was gonna ask you do do your next post analysis by thread post number, not individual post number (which is how I do mine).

[Mirth]

I think everyone is entitled to their own opinion/vote. So I'm not going to try an persuade anyone to do anything. Independent thinking=good.

[Mirth]

And yet since none of us are sure of roles (save scum themselves, and a cop if we have one), it might be better to corroborate evidence independently. Then if multiple people reach a similar conclusion, it would be due to evidence and not one particular player's persuasive abilties, which is what I would prefer.

[Mirth]

That's not much of an opinion on players. Anything at all you feel like analyzing?

[Mirth]

Unvote: Grek

Vote: ImHim

InHim, please explain what exactly you're doing. I was willing to accept your early 4th vote on Nox as a game starter vote, but you "this this wagon better" than Ben's? Why? What exactly do you find suspicious?

Also, Ben, why do you sound as if you're defending him? You do realize that a vote is more than just a way of killing people, yes? Voting can pressure people into answers. Though in your case, it doesn't seem to be helping.

[Mirth]

Ben, could you please explain your vote? Since your post prior seemed to be in InHim's defense?

[Mirth]

Wow. I just read it again and noticed some funny little hint-dropping... benhalkum and InHim appear, in my eyes, to be scum partners.

They throw suspicion each others' way... Jut little bits... Nothing solid. benhalkum even says "as if trying to get people suspecious of me." then votes him even though he said 2 posts prior to that that he didn't think voting him would be wise yet. He only voted him because he was prodded to for looking like he defended him.

wtf mate?

No wonder Inhim says he thinks the new bandwagon is better than the wagon against ben... haha.

Though obviously I can't PROVE this until the game ends or they are nked or lynched but... I believe I have a good theory goin.

Yet there is something that doesn't add up with this theory. InHim is obviously an experienced player. So why would he be basically giving himself away like that if he is mafia? I don't get it.

[Mirth]

Yet there is something that doesn't add up with this theory. InHim is obviously an experienced player. So why would he be basically giving himself away like that if he is mafia? I don't get it.

So because he is experienced, he cannot possibly be caught?

No, because he's experienced, it seems to be an even stupider move than it would normally be. Like he should know that voting like that would draw major amounts of suspicion.

[Mirth]

I'm not defending him (see where my vote is). I'm just curious as to why he'd do something that he probably knows will cause everyone to jump down his throat.

[Mirth]

Unvote:InHim

I don't like how quickly this is escalating, especially since InHim hasn't said very much. I would like to hear more from him. His play also doesn't sit well with me for another reason someone mentioned earlier. (I would like to hear from InHim before I point out exactly what is bothering me here, as I don't want to prompt any responses in that vein of thought.)

[Mirth]

Why exactly don't you want to lynch Ben (or whoever his replacement is)?

[Mirth]

Sorry that I haven't posted in a while. Totally crashed on Monday/yesterday (finally got enough sleep, yay!)

Grek, his answer seemed to be that "it's too early to think anything" unless I'm reading something wrong...and I know I shall be getting more flak for this, but I really don't like how hard Grek is pushing. I agree with Nox about it seeming like Grek is trying to get rid of attention.

As for my read on InHim. I do not know what to think, but he honestly does strike me as less scummy than a few other people. I don't like the wagoning, but two things don't sit well in my mind. Somebody mentioned earlier that the mod likes jester roles, and while speculating about it seems stupid, I keep remembering that phrase. InHim's player age just doesn't want to reconcile with the kind of stupid wagonning for me for some reason. That's all I have to add. (Now I need to go catch up on all I missed in Open. Argh.)

[Mirth]

I'm really sorry about now posting lately. I have family over and they're being a pain. I didn't expect this, as I can usually just hole myself somewhere with my laptop and have them ignore me, but I have had no free time the last few days. I shall be able to get on the computer late tomorrow evening long enough to respond to stuff. Again, I'm very sorry about this and very sorry I didn't forsee it.

[Mirth]

Sorry about my abscence. Family is finally gone, my apartment is empty, I am free to stay on the computer. Yay.

To the stuff I missed, I only have comments on the following:

Grek: I still think you're pushing too hard. At this point its kind of hard to think much of anyone really, as we have a few people not actively playing, and no one died night one. This means that we have a set-up with either 3 or 4 mafia members (and possibly a serial killer), and the remaining people are townies or some variant or other. Since a third or a quarter of the players here are bad evil horrible people who kick puppies and such, a read on day one with no bodies and no previous lynch is kind of hard to establish.

Also, as to whom scum will pick during the night, well, its most likely that scum will go power role hunting instead of trying to elliminate those who suspect them or kill those whose deaths will provide as little information for the town as possible. For a scum win, since there is more than one of them, it is perfectly okay if one or two of them bites the dust as long as they get rid of any power role that can influence the town. It's also perfectly okay to eliminate someone that suspects one of them, as long as the others can make themselves look innocent. So really the scum *WON'T* pick someone "regardless of what is said during the day." They'll try to use what is said during the day to maximize their chances of picking power roles at night, and leaving the more suspicious looking townies alive for the town to lynch during the day.

And that's all I have to say really, other than I really would like to hear from Ben's replacement.

[Mirth]

Adam, perhaps you misunderstand what I meant by the *WON'T*. I mean that the mafia will of course use what happens during the day to influence their choice and to think otherwise would be silly. I should also mention that the most suspicious person during the day changes with who the mafia choose to kill at night, but I would think that goes without saying.

Now then, since you don't like where my post is going, I must say the feeling is mutual. If you're accusing me of setting up a Grek kill, then accuse me outright, please. I realize my post is all WIFOM but so is yours. If you're going to talk about Grek dying tonight, let's play out the whole WIFOM scenerio.

If Grek dies, most of you will probably suspect me as I'm the one who was giving him the most grief. But then you shouldn't suspect me because I'm not stupid enough to kill him and draw suspicion on myself. But then you should suspect me because I know that you think that I'm not stupid enough to kill him and draw suspicion on myself, so obviously I'm going to kill him because I think you think I wouldn't. But then you shouldn't suspect me because I know you know I know you think I'm not stupid enough to kill him and draw suspicion on myself, and the farmer had a dog that he loved, that ate a piece of meat, then he killed the dog, buried it, and wrote on his grave that the farmer had a dog that he loved that ate a piece of meat...

Now then, you know what else is missing from your post? The possibility of other killing roles besides Mafia. We could have a serial killer. We could have a vigilante. We don't know (and I'm not going to try to guess), but even if someone turns up dead, we wouldn't know who killed them, because on top of multiple killing roles, we might also have a roleblocker or a doctor, who may or may not prevent one or more kills, or no kills at all. So even if Grek turns up dead, and even if I killed him, it might be worse than you think or better than you think. Then again, you function under the assumption that Grek is town and has a chance of turning up dead tomorrow. How can you be so sure of this? Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. Maybe he and I really are partners, like someone mentioned before. Maybe we're masons or cops or watchers or siblings or any one of any possible number of roles that could appear in a game like this. So really, the WIFOM scenerios are even more endless then I mention.

The real reason I posted post 195, though, is because I really just don't like Grek's reasoning. His logical basis seems unthought out. (I'm not going to get back into arguing with him about lynching, though). It rubs me a the wrong way. I just think he needs to consider all the choices a bit more before he makes a blanket statement. I also happen to mostly agree with Nox.

[Mirth]

Grek, could you please rephrase you last post? I'm not sure I understand what you're saying. Maybe I'm just tired, but I'm not sure I see the difference.

Adam, why start me on the WIFOM trail then? Also I don't get the of your first paragraph. The second, I agree that we probably only have a mafia, but thats as far as my speculation will go. I think that we'll probably get a better picture of how many killing rolls are running around after the next night.

[Mirth]

I have to continue to disagree with you then. The mafia could use a player's opinions of who they say they suspect as a guide, by leaving alive a player who has suspicion on him already. They don't necessarily have to, but they could.

InHim, would you care to make a more substantial post? I know you said that you have nothing to say about players or suspicion or anything, but a longer comment on anything else would be nice.

[Mirth]

How likely is he of being scum? Well, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess there are probably three, four, or five scum in this game. I'm going to go with four, as I think that seems most likely. So going with probability here, I'd say he has a 25% percent chance of being scum, if we're going with likelyhood.

Now I believe the question you're actually asking is whether I think he's scum. At the moment, I wouldn't know what I think. I think he's the player who has given me the most to argue with, and, as much as I really don't want to get back into this discussion, I still think he early actions are suspicious in nature, so my suspicion of him is not alleviated. If I had to say something, I'd say I'm leaning toward him probably being scum, but as to absolute likelihoods, well, I can't give you anything more certain than that until someone dies and I start strining together more WIFOM arguements.

If you're asking if my vote will return to him, well, that depends on how he, yourself (this is because you are replacing Ben), and a few other people decide to act.

Now then, your second question, as I don't know what Kingmaker is, I'm not sure if my answer will be up to your standards. I don't have an "execution list." There are quiet a few players I would love to hear more from (mainly everyone who hasn't posted much). I'm reserving judgement at the moment as I'm not satisfied with the amount of discussion so far. You're right, it has been mostly me and Grek arguing and other people sort of sitting on the sidelines.

Also, I have a few questions for you, since you seem to have read the thread closely enough to count my exact word usage to the point where you can indirectly go "aha! she's suspicious!" without actually saying you think so, and present me with questions asked in a leading manner.

1. what do you think of your predecessor? I'm sure we're all wondering this.
2. this execution list thing. I suppose, since you asked me, it would be only fair to ask you who you think is suspicious thus far and why? (I know that I'm probably at the top of that list, considering that you use your first game post to question me alone, but, humor me a little, please).

That's all, really. I'm going back to sleep now.

[Mirth]

I just asked if you think Grek is scum and who else you suspect. Normal mafia questions. If I'm not accusing you why are you so defensive?

Because I've yet to see someone go through posts and actually count the number of times one player mentions another player's name. (Though I am new on this site, I have read through a pile of completed games to get the gist of what is supposed to be going on.) This, obviously, bothers me. Ergo I am defensive. Also suspicious.

1. what do you think of your predecessor? I'm sure we're all wondering this.

In most games here at Mafia Scum you win with your side even if you die during the game. This is to incentivate players to play well and try their best to catch scum even knowing that if they play too well they will end up targeted by mafia at night.
Some players seem to not think this way, and do their best to survive the more they can. A classic example would be creampuffeater in Himalayan Mafia. He didn't help the town at all, he was happy just to not be the lynch of the day and survive to see another day. Of course the mafia didn't kill him at night and he got to endgame just to lynch Twomz and handle the mafia the win.
I think ben is this kind of player. He was happy to jump on any bandwagon as soon as someone else got killed. And he didn't want to lead anything to not call mafia's attention and get nightkilled.
Also, based on his last post I think he plays mafia online on sites where the things go much faster, making his style more effective.
In other words, I don't think ben cared who got lynched.

He just wanted to survive.

At least that's what I saw last time I hacked into his brain.

Nice bit of analysis there, but you seem to have missed something. Ben put a vote on me. I did not have any votes prior to him. He gave, as his reason, a copy and paste of Grek's post arguing with my argument against Grek's theory and didn't explain that vote when asked about it. Now, I might be wrong, but one vote does not constitute a bandwagon. This was also before people started questioning me about arguing with Grek. Therefore I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I wasn't in any danger of being lynched right at that moment and certainly didn't have a bandwagon on me.

Following through with your bit of logic, then, if Ben really wanted a lynch that wasn't himself for the sake of having a lynch that wasn't himself, wouldn't he have voted someone with votes on them already? Like, for instance, Grek or Nox or Jex? Yet he didn't go along with the peanut gallery. Nor did he actually provide a reason for voting me. The problem with Ben was not in his vote, but rather in his lack of explanation for the vote.

So then, since your opinion references a situation that did not occur, could I ask you to please comment on Ben in this context?

In her last post, Mirth avoided mentioning the word Grek even once, in order to decrease her average of Grek's per post.

Actually, I mentioned Grek's name once in that post. I'm surprised you didn't pick up on it, since you're so keen on counting the number of times I use his name. As to avoiding, I wasn't. Though, I think you'd have to agree here, it hardly matters how many times I used his name, since it's kind of obvious who I was refering to anyway.

[Mirth]

Hmm...something I've notived.

Zindaras, you've been totally silent recently, yet I've noticed that you've been posting in other threads. Yes, I know this is metagaming, and it's not something I'm generally a fan of, but I'd really like to hear from you. Would you care to comment on anything at all?

[Mirth]

DR, could you please answer my question?

[Mirth]

Hi, welcome to the game ^_^ I have two questions for you already.

That being said, I'm all for a lynch and moving on and I think it's detrimental to the game to spend countless days and hours (it's been a month) on day 1. No progression bores people and it doesn't get us anywhere.

1. if you're for moving on, whom do you purpose lynching and why?
2. What do you think of your predecessor (I ask this of all people who replace into a game.)

[Mirth]

I dont have a feel for any of the people you mentioned, but I would very much like to hear more from Pug and Goldfish.

[Mirth]

I dont have a feel for any of the people you mentioned, but I would very much like to hear more from Pug and Goldfish.

Quite frankly I see this post as a contradiction in itself. Not having a feel on any of the people she posted about yet having some need for more information from myself and Pug... Well it just doesn't make sense.

How exactly am I contridicting myself? I said I have no feel for you. Meaning I do not have enough from you to form an opinion one way or the other. Meaning I would like to hear more from you to form an opinion one way or the other. (Note how I also asked to hear more from Zindaras a few posts ago, because I don't have an opinion there either). I'm asking for you to post because you haven't posted in a while. That's it. Why are you blowing it out of proportion?

[Mirth]

First of all, thank you for not answering my question. Also I do not understand your comments about Ben and InHim please explain them.

Second, no, I don't have a feel on everyone, but the reason I'm asking you and Pug to post is because you have a total of 8 posts. They're not very long or wordy and when I asked for you to post more, you hadn't posted for a week. Pug has 9 posts with large gaps in between them. And I remembered that the two of you hadn't posted in a while.

I don't have a significant enough feel on anyone yet as this thread is lacking conversation. But here are my opinions so far (or lack there of), if you must know:

InHim: While I don't like his wagon jumping, I think his explanations for it are valid, so, while I will be watching him closely (speaking of, I would also like to hear more from him), I don't think he's mafia at this point.

Camisade/Mexal: no opinion, and I don't feel the need to explicitly ask for opinions because Mexal seems active.

Grek: The only person who is really talking in this thread. He's the only one I really have enough material to suspect (i.e. he's the only one who posted enough for me to really attempt analyzing anything). If I would have to vote now, my vote would probably go back to Grek, but a lot of it is based on nobody else talking.

Adam: Adam strikes me as protown, as he does throw out valid questions. (I would also like to hear more from Adam, but did not feel the need to ask for a comment specifically as he post a day or two ago)

Jex: No opinion yet, but I don't feel a need to ask for posts due to recent posting.

Nox: Another person I don't have any opinion on. Speaking of which, I would really like to hear more from Nox. I didn't realize how long ago her last post was.

Zindaras: I'm a little suspicious of Zindaras for putting words in my mouth and trying to ascribe to me absolute opinions that I do not possess, but I want to hear more from him. I already asked for more posts.

Ben/DR: Not sure. Ben played poorly in the other game I was in with him, so I think that that was mostly playstyle. Haven't heard enough from DR to think anything yet.

Pug: No opinion, would like to hear more.

Haschel: not much of an opinion, but leaning toward protown for analysis posts a while back. Would like to hear more from him, and would like an explanation of his current vote on me, but don't feel the need to explicitly prod. He posted recently.

Goldfish: No opinion. Hence me asking you to post.

There you go. It pretty much boils down to "I really want to hear more from practically everyone. And I will actively ask the people who haven't posted in a while."

[Mirth]

Not that much work.
I noticed the name Grek showed too much in your posts, so I made the forum display all posts from you, clicked control+f and counted the Grek's.
Just took few seconds, but you keep repeating and repeating this as if it were a carefully planned attack.
Also, if you had gotten the gist of what's ging on you wouldn't get overly defensive on non-attacks.

...I did not even think of that. I'm not particularly computer savvy and were I to count words, I'd be doing it manually, because up until now I didn't know there was another way to count individual words.

Just because I meant he was happy to jump on any bandwagon (obviously meaning he didn't care on who he was voting, as everyone seems to have understood) you take my words out of context (as if I had said he would only vote if it was already a bandwagon) and try to make my point null by saying you had not enough votes to be considered in a bandwagon?
lol, such a boring and long way of saying nothing.

Anyone else, who? As I see it, not that many people are actually responding to anything. And I also don't see you actually answering my question. The purpose of my post is not to invalidate your point, but to point out that your reasoning is unsubtantiated and ask for an analysis of Ben consistent with what actually happened and not a theoretic cause that does not apply to this game. I also think that your opinion of Ben might be valuable in future context.

At Haschel: I think that you're doing exactly what you seem to accuse Adam of doing, i.e. attempting to define scum groups without really defining them and present your alignment as contrary to them. Just like you say Adam tries to tie me and Grek together, you're tying him in with the two of us, wheather consciously or subconsiously.

[Mirth]

Mirth: I do not feel like one post about a contradiction I felt you made (which I honestly don't believe could be anymore thoroughly explained) is blowing anything out of proportion.

I simply wanted to know why if you didn't have a read on anyone you were wanting only myself and Pug to post more. I asked and received. There were no blowings or proportions anywhere. You weren't voted for or even FOSed... So unscrunch your panties.

First of all, watch your language please.

Second, you call suspicion on me for asking to hear more from barely active players. (Yes, I count you in this category.) This strikes me as a) blowing a simple request out of proportion and b) ignoring the fact that we're on a deadline. That ends in less than 4 days, by the way. Speaking of,

Mod, I know that we're not producing very much conversation here, but is there any chance of either getting rid of it or pushing it back at least? Also can you please prod Nox who hasn't posted in over a week?

[Mirth]

I like how you forget to mention that Jex voted for you before I asked you to talk before Grek did a pbp of you. Just thought I'd point that out.

[Mirth]

And after that he posted 9 more times in two days and is still ignoring this game.

Hmm...that really doesn't sit well with me. I know life can get hectic, but he could at least just pop in to check in here.

Mod: could you please prod Zindaras?

Also, welcome, Oman. I know that you're still probably rereading(; I think it's safe to say that I managed to beat the Grek's-argument-sucks horse to death with a stick. And then beat it some more just to make sure it didn't get up and go hunting for brains), but I'd like to hear what you think once you're done with that.

[Mirth]

Of course, nobody reacted at all until now, and I forgot that I had indeed shifted to her.

Actually I did ask you for an explanation a few posts back, but I'm guessing you just must have missed that. (And, honestly, I'm much less likely to react to a vote on me then accusations that don't come with a vote. )

Pug, I, too, would like to hear your answers to Mexal's questions.

[Mirth]

I like how you forget to mention that Jex voted for you before I asked you to talk before Grek did a pbp of you. Just thought I'd point that out.

Get your facts straight: Jex FOSed me for lack of participation. She didn't vote for me. She even wrote "Delicious I don't really know what to think of yet. I've played with her in past games and she acts similar to what she is now. I also know that's she's really busy. I've been an RA...the first month sucks "

Also: Panties = bad language? That's honestly laughable...

Mirth is definitely squirming even though I haven't voted or even necessarily pointed any "Fingers Of Suspicion."

I will concede that you are right on the FOS. I skimmed, I saw a bold and assumed it was a vote.

Also, I am not "squirming" I am calling you on reactions that I think don't make sense.

...And yes, I realize that in games after this one it'll be a WIFOM, so this is the last time it'll work, but I hope to just end this little dey-bah-te.

What exactly do you mean by this? Why "in games after this one"? Why not just "it is WIFOM." Your statement makes it sound like you know that Goldfish is town in this game because you exclude it from the possibility of WIFOM. Please explain yourself.

[Mirth]

Scum=
Haschel (for posting without saying much)
Grek (for doing the Greky things)
and ben is on the list (for being ben)

If you think this, could you please explain why in greater depth. Also, honestly, I don't understand why you made a scum list if you're not done with a read through. I understand noting "I think so-and-so is suspicious here" on a pbp, but by ascribing a classification one way or the other in the middle of an initial read might throw you off.

[Mirth]

Zindaras, what do the plus/minus signs mean? Is that agreement/disagreement with a person's point in that post?

[Mirth]

Ah. Okay.

[Mirth]

Oman, fair enough answer, just throwing the possibility out there. I'm not so much concerned with invidual players on your list, just your reasons for throwing them all on there. (I'm also curious why you think they're connected)

[Mirth]

I'm assuming you know what vibes are, and so would know why I think it's silly you ask that I post them..?

If you're scum it gives us hints as to your buddy? If you're town it gives us information on what you think/feel. This really is anti-town.

I'm going to tactfully ignore the question, pretend you really said, "I took the time to read your posts and wish you a good night," and go to sleep.

Its hypocritical, as Grek posted why InHim should post and yet InHim is saying that Grek didn't read HIS posts. This just looks...weird. Its a little too obvobv scum, there is no willingness to please or empathy for other characters. I refuse to use the "too scummy to be scum" arugment and will say this looks doubleplus ungood.

While you're earned a cookie for the 1984 reference, I don't think InHim has done anything innately scummy (yet). He's most certainly not been very helpful, and I don't like his playing, yes, but I've seen a similar playstyle in protown players. I would like to here more from him (or rather his replacement, since he already gave up modding the newbie game I'm in, and I'm pretty sure he also gave up this one).

Mafia group (obvobv) - Misses NK for some reason(?)
Vig (pro town) - Doesn't NK N1 due to it being a stupid thing to do.
SK (anti-town) - Doesn't NK N1 due to the possibility of claiming vig later.

I'd doubt all three, so I'm going to say there is a scumgroup and a vig/SK. We should know by tomorrow (in that SK will kill more pro-town players and vig will kill scummier (WIFOM!))

I was under the impression that an SK has to kill everynight, so I'm going to say that unless we have more than one doctor/role-blocker, and they all got really lucky, an SK is probably unlikely. Also, if we have an SK, the SK wouldn't in fact go for more protown players. The SK would probably rather go for mafia in this game, since they are night-killing and could put an SK in more danger than a day-lynch.

You know, suspicion and desire for contriubution are not mutually exclusive. This is one of the worst deflections I've EVER seen.

I think you mean mutually

in

clusive here

I'll need to do a reread at some point, but the next few days are going to be hard, so while I]ll be able to keep up, I won't be able to reread until probably Weds night.

[Mirth]

Here's an OMGUSy

FOS

for all 3 of you.

Do you have a non-OMGUSy reason to FOS us? Because I'd like that better.

[Mirth]

I don't think InHim has done anything innately scummy

Being unhelpful is rather scummy (its not definative, but its certainly up there), in my book.

I like to be safe rather than sorry with this one. See Newbie 382 for why.

Also, if we have an SK, the SK wouldn't in fact go for more protown players. The SK would probably rather go for mafia in this game, since they are night-killing and could put an SK in more danger than a day-lynch.

This is down to individual playstyles but when I play SK I work of the fact that vocal/analytical players are likely to out me early. However the scum tend to keep a scummy looking SK around due to the fact that they deflect attention.

But the mafia don't know if there definitiely don't know if there's an SK around (as there could exist other killing roles) and while acting partially scummy would deflect the mafia, it would get the town annoyed. Also, in addition to nightkilling, since mafia have the advantage of numbers on their side, they're also a lynch threat. I just think it's smarter for the SK to get a headstart on killing them off.


Speaking of bandwagons, I'm going to have to look at Nox's again, as, looking at probability, there had to be at least one, maybe two scum on that. I'll do rereads probably tomorrow night.

Also, Haschel, it seems to me that a lot of your impressions are based on playstyle without very much else backing it up and you admit some of your arguments as such upfront. I don't think this is particularly useful.

[Mirth]

I haven't said that, Oman. I only said that I think at least one person voting Nox is scum, probably two. This is based on probability. I don't believe anything of you/Nox yet. (I actually forgot that you replaced Nox for a second there.)

[Mirth]

I don't know if Nox/you are scum or not. I just what is likely probabilistically. Early bussing doesn't hurt, especially since no one is stupid enough to pull a page one lynch (I hope)

[Mirth]

Thats a good point. I can help you if you want...do you want help?

Nox is town...as am I. Did that help?

Why are you claiming?

[Mirth]

Thats a good point. I can help you if you want...do you want help?

Nox is town...as am I. Did that help?

Why are you claiming?

Its mostly a joke. But seriously Claiming town means nothing...lets have a mass claim, everyone claims town/scum/neutral. I bet we get all town or maybe 1 survivour claim.

Claiming town is never taken seriously either, because of its pointlessness.

Then why bother doing it if it is a joke. Premature, unwarrented claims make me uneasy.

[Mirth]

I must say, vanilla claims bother me more than claims of a power role, partially for the reason that with a powerrole there is always the chance of a counterclaim, and partially because vanilla claims are totally unnecessary except for iminent threat of death.

I will do a reread tomorrow. Now, I just want to collapse in a corner and sleep.

[Mirth]

I realize this. I'm still just not fond of premature, unprovoked claims.

[Mirth]

You should be sleeping...

I should have been, yes. I'm a bit of an insomniac.

Zindaras: I thought I answered all of DR's questions. If I missed anything, please point me to it. Especially since after I mentioned that I don't have much of a suspect list due to lack of conversation, DR agreed with my reason for why. As for defensiveness, yes. I was totally defensive. I was under the impression DR manually went back and counted words. I was decidedly not happy about that. DR quite recently informed me of a function that does this, though. I feel a bit stupid, but some technology is beyond me.

You're right, I do answer with a lot of theory, but it's how I function. I like to have a working theory and see if the outcomes match it. If not, theory gets revised. I like to be safe rather than sorry, too, so it takes me a while to form an opinion on actual people.

As for defending InHim, at the moment I just dont think the case against him is particularly strong, as he hasn't said very much. Speaking of InHim,

mod: could we maybe get a replacement, please?

[Mirth]

Agh, sorry about disappearing for 2 days. Life decided to be evil and destroy my computer time.

Comments on what just happened:

Haschel: I don't like that you feel so convinced about someone who has barely posted and is in desperate need of a replacement. I don't like InHim's play, but I don't see anything about it that is a clear indicator of scumminess. Why are you so certain? Also, why did you just vote hop from InHim to Pug? I'm going to keep my eye on you.

The rest, well, I'm not convinced there's a decent case against Pug either...sure he hasn't actually been playing, but a lack of contribution only sets off my scumdar in very extreme cases. And I don't like Haschel's last post. It strikes me as an oppurtunist move to get a lynch in. Especially since he's so convinced of InHim's scumminess. It feels to me that he brings up the possibility of Pug and InHim being partners only to justify his vote switching.

Last ditch attempt at trying to get more conversation in before deadline:

Mod, any remote chance of pushing back the deadline a little more? Pretty please with sugar on top?

[Mirth]

I generally do not like claims, but, considering that you're at L-2 in a deadline situation where, if I read the rules correctly, the player with the most votes dies at deadline regardless of whether the amount is a majority, and deadline is in less than 24 hours, I would not be opposed to you claiming. I would, however, prefer if you held off making that decision until a few more people commented on it.

[Mirth]

Depending on the role, I would advise against counterclaiming in some cases. Because if Pug falsely claims a powerrole, if that powerrole exists in this setup, we might not want to risk giving the scum extra information about whom to nightkill.

[Mirth]

Then I guess we'll soon find out tomorrow if you're lying, because unless we have more than one doctor (or a doctor and a role blocker), you will have no reason to be alive tomorrow.

That said, I ask that nobody counterclaims. If Pug is lying, we don't want the real doctor dead. If, by some chance, we have two doctors (or a doctor and a roleblocker), we don't want them both targeted.

If, however, someone has an investigator role and investigated Pug last night, I ask that they come forward if, and only if, they have a confirmed guilty. (A confirmed innocent would end up with two dead powerroles, which would be bad.)

[Mirth]

Eh, if we're going to be speculating based on the movies, I'd guess Merlin is probably a "quack" doctor, with a random success rate. (Based on the Donkey/Puss bodyswitch thing...though, I must say, Eric Idle is definately all kinds of fantabously awesome...except for the horribleness which is Spam-a-lot...but I forgive him to that travesty) So assuming Pug isn't lying, it's very possible that he protected Nox successfully. (Unless we have another doctor/roleblocker running around here somewhere.)

Oman, the fact that you keep pointing out that you think I'm town strikes me like you're trying to get into my good graces. It isn't working.

I'm not sure if I agree that the best bet is lynching Pug. While the mafia could take the gambit of not killing him, they also possibly lose a night kill (what if Pug, if he isn't lying, protects correctly again?) Then again, this all also depends on the kind of doctor Pug is. If Pug has the chance of killing his patients, it might be better to kill him for the town. If Pug is just ineffective, well he's still a townie. I don't sit too well with purposely lynching a townie.

[Mirth]

I'd like to point out, Grek, that you're missing a couple of things. The one that most prominently comes to mind is sanity/effectiveness. Even if we do have a cop, we have to garuntee that that cop is sane. Even if Pug is a doc, we don't know if Pug is effective. I also don't want to rule out other killing roles prematurely.

[Mirth]

Oh, and before I forget, I'd like to hear what Goldfish, Adam, Zindaras, and DR have to say about this. I'd also like to have a more substantial post from Haschel, who only commented to unvote.

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Busdriver? Explain that one please.

Pug, could you please paraphrase what your role is in a manner that is something more than saying you're basically just the doctor?

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Hmmm nevermind, I looked it up. I doubt that due to a lack of death.

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Oh, my browser messed up and I totally missed Jex and DR's posts. Comments on those:

Jex: InHim isn't playing any of his games anymore, as far as I can tell. We've been needing a replacement for him for a while. (I don't like going into deadline with one non-player) As to other players, I'm least happy with Haschel and Adam. I don't think Adam's really contributed anything, and I'm not liking how Haschel is very subtley casting suspicion. If I had to vote, I'd probably go with Haschel. Goldfish, I can't get a read on. Mainly because she only pops up to spout OMGUS WIFOM-brande arguments against me for calling her out on non-participation. I also don't particularly like how Adam was defending her based on previous games, but that's more a point against Adam than against her. I realize that life is hectic (heck I'm sitting on a pile of work right now myself, and am not getting any sleep for the next week or two), but I think they should at least check in with an original thought or get replaced or something. Especially at deadline.

At DR: If Pug is not lying, then I think he is most likely a quack. (This is based solely on the Merlin character). In this case I'm concerned about type of quack. (I.e. can he inadvertantly kill?)

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All this voting/unvoting is getting a little confusing, but it seems that the most votes anybody has at the moment is two, with InHim and Goldfish tied for two votes, and InHim as the probable lynch due to getting those first.

Mod, can we get an official votecount please?

I'm weary of an InHim lynch. I don't like the fact that you a) your voting him when he hasn't done much of anything at all and b) has been needing a replacement since at least 5 pages back.

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Deadline is in 8 minutes, I believe. Unless I'm mistaken, I think that InHim is sharing a majority with Goldfish, but got it first.

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Arg, Mondays are my hell.

I did a quick skim back to see whose late actions were suspicious. That would be you and Mirth.

Deadline is in 8 minutes, I believe. Unless I'm mistaken, I think that InHim is sharing a majority with Goldfish, but got it first.

Failure to act is as bad, or even worse, than acting wrongly.

How, exactly? (I miscounted, yes, and missed one of the votes on Grek.) I'm of the philosophy that our doctor, if Pug is an effective doctor, gave us a head start. We don't know how many scum we have and I didn't like any of the options being voted. I'm also not going to vote if a) my main suspect has nothing to do with an established bandwagon in a deadlined situation and b) I don't like who the bandwagons are on. Any vote other than on Inhim, Goldfish, or Grek at that point would have been meaningless.

Also, I don't agree with your attacking Mexal for posting first. It's a crap!logic argument you have. A townie could just as easily try to trace the night kill.

Now then, I won't take up Glork's bet, but I will

Vote: Haschel

. I'd like to hear what Pug has to say first.

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Firth of all, Faerielord, your post analysis really isn't particularly helpful. I especially appreciate how you admit to skipping posts too. Is there are reason for all the sarcasm sans analysis or did you just not take your happy pills this morning?

Zindaras, I stand by my position. Especially since voting someone just for the sake of a bandwagon strikes me poor play. Also, I'm pretty sure that at the moment, the only people with any suspicion toward Haschel were me and Oman, so the lynch wouldn't have changed. Also, I agree with Mexal that the nightkill is a place to start. No, it's not solid proof of anything, but it brings out information.

Pug, why in the blue blazes of hell did you protect me? I think there's a pretty decent sized concensus here that I'm at least mildly suspicious. Does it have something to do with the fact that I'm reluctant to lynch you or were there other alterior motives involved?

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Zindaras, you mention jumping on a bandwagon to lynch. Same thing. Not deafetest realist. Note my vote now. I'm also not saying NK speculation is absolute, just that it is a place to start. See how people react to it. Not blow off discussion of it completely. No, speculating isn't definate, but not speculating might miss some things too.

Since we're on the subject, why is it that Goldfish only posts in response to people being suspicious of her? I think I asked this before. I'd like an answer.

By the way, Zindaras, what's your opinion of what Pug just said? I'd like to also have answers to that one from both Oman and Haschel due to where their votes are.

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You're basically saying "you had your choice of bandwagons, why didn't you jump on one." Because I didn't like any of them. I missed Grek's due to an oversight (I forgot to count Pug's vote, because for some reason I thought he unvoted) and I didn't like the ones of InHim and Goldfish because InHim wasn't playing for Darwin knows how many pages, and with Goldfish, everybody keeps saying that's her playstyle. I don't think it's a town tell, but I don't think it's a scum tell either. If anything, it's a null tell and an insufficient case since she only speaks up when someone attacks her. I would like to hear more from Goldfish, and I keep asking for it, but I'm not going to vote for null tells. I also don't see the point in voting when my opinion will not alter a pending lynch, especially a couple minutes before deadline. Zindaras, you are just arguing playstyle right now, but I will throw back your own opinion at you. If you think a move is scummy, why not vote for the person who made it?

To clarify, I was asking what you thought of Pug saying he protected me.

Oh, and before I forget, I'm going to throw this out there: We likely only have one scum group. (Due to night 1's lack of a kill) That said, that group could either be Mafia or SK as we don't know what the mod is up to. I don't think we have both, but I'm not going to rule out the possibility of either.

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Mexal, I'd like to throw the following out for you to consider: while I'm not enjoying Zindaras's playing, perhaps the reason there aren't any comments on Goldfish, because, apart from early posts about Ben and Inhim, the rest of Goldfish's not very numerous posts, are in response to people being suspicious of her and rather OMGUSy in a not particularly informative way.

Now then, I really would like to hear from Haschel. On top of a question I threw out to him earlier, I'd like to ask him why he thinks I'm voting him.

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Actually, you voted Pug before Pug said he protected me. (I have not decided yet whether I buy Pug's claim.)

As to why I'm voting you, here's a pbp of you:


First post: applies my logic of wagon jumping to InHim (makes sense.)

Second post: seems to think Grek could have a valid trap, votes InHim (why exnorate one for a crappy trap and not the other for a crappy attempt at wagonning?)

Third post: Asks for more from Goldfish and Ben.

Fourth post: Votes Ben on grounds of feeling comfortable with a third vote (now, I might be wrong, but this sounds like what InHim was doing and what you called him out for.) Gives reasons saying that scum usually bring up alignment and that Ben's vote on me doesn't really have a reason. (The reasons are valid for the vote, but the manner of the vote echoes InHim's vote on Nox.)

Fifth post: PBP of Grek. Mentions that he thinks Grek's ad hoc explanation isn't scummy. Basically defends Grek's trap as viable and consistant with it's own logic. (So it did turn out that Grek really did believe what he was saying, but why did Haschel side with him so early on?)

Sixth post: PBP of me. Doesn't agree with my assumption that Grek's vote assumes Nox is town, or rather doesn't think this is important. (Only problem I find with this, as well as the previous post, is writing Nox's alignment off.)

Seventh post: Comments on InHim, Ben, and Grek. (I still fail to see why InHim was more suspicious than Grek here.)

Eighth post: addresses a technical issue

Ninth post: doesn't think ben is the jester, tells Ben to defend himself.

Tenth post: asks for a prod on Goldfish and InHim.

Eleventh post: holding off analysis until Ben gets replaced.

Twelfth post: reason for absence.

Thirteenth post: Is certain of Grek being town. Unvotes DR, not holding him to Ben's actions. Votes me. (Why so certain of Grek's alignment? Also, sort of let's DR off the hook easily after being so sure about Ben. That part I'm not too concerned with though, because Ben wasn't a very good player, but it might be worth looking at later. I'm not too concerned with the vote on me, as that probably refers to my early stance on Grek.)

Fourteenth post: PBP of Adam. Mentions not liking Adam's distancing comment. Asks about Adam being sure about the number of scum. Admits to being baised in my argument with Grek. (Mostly this post makes me think about looking at Adam more closely, which I will do later

Fifteenth post: PBP of Zindaras. Seems to like Zindaras's playing overall.

Sixteenth post: is busy

Seventeenth post: explains vote on me, unvotes.

Eighteenth post: computer issues

Nineteenth post: Votes InHim after stating opinions on everybody. (This bothers me as InHim has practically done nothing all game. I would understand a vote if InHim was actively being evasive, but just not playing doesn't strike me as a strong case.) Calls Goldfish OMGUSy and has her second on list of suspects (this is true that she is, but she hasn't done much.)

Twentieth post: asks about SK/Vig comment.

Twenty first post: expresses understanding of point.

Twenty second post: Votes Pug, thinks Pug and InHim are partners (neither of them has really been playing. Non-player votes make me a bit uncomfortable.)

Twenty third post: Unvotes Pug due to doctor claim.

Twenty fourth post: Votes Pug, doesn't believe doctor claim

Twenty fifth post: Answers my questions. Says he made a case why he was sure Grek was town. (I reread his posts just to look for it. I don't see an actual case validating a defense of Grek.)

What I don't like: The whole Grek thing. The being sure of inactive player's guilt thing. (I'd understand if they were active elsewhere and just lurking here, but based on your comments of asking Ben to defend himself even when he was talking and then going after low-content players, I'm more than a bit suspicious. Now then, I don't know if Pug and InHim/Glork are innocent. But I'd like to hear a lot more from them as I don't agree with lynching on a lack of information.)

So Haschel, you're half right. A good part of my suspicion is how sure you were of Grek.

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On Mexal and Zindaras: I think part of Zindaras's reasoning is flawed, as it is, in fact, based on assumptions of what the best course of action is based in playstyle, but I don't see anything glaring suspicious about it. It's just a case of "to each his own."

I don't, however, see why Mexal just can't drop the argument and look at Goldfish's posts (there really aren't tht many. And for the record, they don't amount to very much either.) Especially since Zindaras isn't actually defending Goldfish, just arguing about the basis of the suspicion. (There's an innate difference between defending someone and saying that the arguments against that person are weak. One is a defense of the person, one is an offense against poor judgement. Not the same thing, necessarily.)

[Mirth]

Town: InHim / Glrok

:goodposting:

Oh. I totally missed this one. Thank you for bringing my attention to it. FaerieLord, what makes you so sure InHim/Glork is town due to the very very few content related posts from either of them.

[Mirth]

You should probably accept that Glork, Ben/Riki, and probably Adam/Faerie are town and move on with your life.

Why? How do you know this?

To you question (as if I hadn't addressed it enough) it was a crap plan because there was no reason to believe that anybody would be stupid enough to quicklynch on the first page. My suspicion was based on the idea that nobody could actually possibily think it was a good idea. I was wrong but the plan still seems on par with taking a transatlantic cruise on a junked ex-navy vessel from the colonail era renamed the Titanic II.

Why is Ben obviously "goodpeoples"? What is so wrong with Nox? Please explain this.

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Bad logic doesn't make him scummy. I assumed that nobody could seriously honestly belive the plan was viable, and thus that it was an ad hoc explanation. I was obviously wrong there, since apparently Grek really did think his plan might work.

I'm not asking about the Ben bandwagon. I'm asking about how you're so sure that Ben/DR and Adam/FaerieLord are innocent.

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No, I fail to understand how a bandwagon clears someone of being scum. An easy lynch on an anti-town player is just as possible. I'm not particularly suspicious of DR, but I most decidedly don't like your certainty about him. What is your hunch based on exactly? Please elaborate?

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Note my vote now.

I, too, am suprised that you didn't vote yesterday, but first thing today. You lose townie brownies.

There wasn't any point in voting for him yesterday. Didn't become suspicious of him until very close to deadline, and my vote wouldn't have changed anything at that point. Also keep your brownies, I have some chocolate cake left over.

and with Goldfish, everybody keeps saying that's her playstyle.

And you accepted this? Sad.

I accept that it seems to be Goldfish's playstyle. I don't particularly like it, and I'd really like to hear something from her that isn't an OMGUS reaction to someone calling her out on something, but I don't think annoying playstyle is necessarily a scum tell. I still don't have much of an opinion on her. Note all the posts where I'm asking her to say something, anything. My point isn't that she's not scum, but that I don't think there's enough evidence to be certain about her yet.

but I'm not going to vote for null tells.

Sounds like you're not going to vote at all, besides some half-baked HC vote. I'm damn upset that you're getting scummier as we go.

I think my vote on Haschel is justified for the time being. I'd like to hear a better explanation of why he was so sure of Grek's alignment because his previous posts don't satisfy me in the area. I read over them and don't see And why be upset that I'm getting scummier in your opinion? You suspecting me, whether or not it's justified suspicion, generate more conversation than posts stating you're in agreement with something I've said. Personally, I'm happy, I might get a decent argument out of you. I like arguments.

I was asking what you thought of Pug

saying

he protected me

You beleive he didn't really?

Maybe. I don't see any gain in protecting me. I'm not the most squeaky-clean person here. Unless I'm mistaken, scum want to kill powerroles and the most squeaky-clean townies. So the most logical, to me, night choices, would have been Pug or Jex (as Jex really didn't do anything worthy of suspicion yesterday). Now then, I'm assuming Pug, if Pug is the doctor, can't protect himself. So why choose to protect me over Jex, who more people seemed to assume was town? It seems like a waste of a protection, because it would have been eaiser for the mafia, given a choice between killing me and Jex, to pounce on me because I have an argumentative playstyle and try to lynch me, than Jex, who wasn't sparking any scumdars, if I recall correctly. Therefore I think it was an illogical choice (assuming that Pug is actually a doctor), and I'd like Pug to explain it.

Actually, in the same vein of discussion, I'm reluctant to discount Pug as a doctor, because, if Pug was scum, it would have been better to claim attempting to protect Jex (since Jex was the most squeaky-clean person here), as there is speculation about Pug's effectiveness. (Since Merlin wasn't the most competent of characters in the movie). That way, if Pug was lying, he could lie that his role was that of a semi-effective doctor, which, I think, would have been better to his cause than claiming to protect me. And here, I'd like to say, before I surely get accused of it, that I'm not giving away strategy, because, if anybody were to use this gambit now, it would come under suspicion for having already been mentioned. (I got crap in Mini 487 for spouting strategy. I just died in that.) Or, if Pug didn't feel like protecting Jex, why not protect Nox/you again? If Pug is the doctor and prevented the night one kill, that would have given Pug an innate confirmation of Nox/Your's innocence, no? So that, too, would have made more sense as a protection target.

Zindaras should be mentioning Goldfish's OMGUS and lack of post. They also shared suspect lists, etc. Zindaras could've/should've at least looked at Goldfish's OMGUS.

Agreed, but I don't think not mentioning it automatically makes them partners as Mexal seems to suggest.

At Glork: I'd prefer if you just answered the questions instead, thank you.

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Ah, just woke up, this is an interesting development. Not too sure what to make of it.

Couple questions about it:

The good part about my claim is that I have claimed the role with Princess Fiona and her martial arts skill and town aligned. A counter-claim right now would mean I might die, but they die the next day and it's a 1 for a 1 which.... is just a lame way to get a game moving. AND it leaves one less player for you guys to "worry" about... well... if you choose to believe me =)

I don't like the way this sounds. Fiona doesn't seem like the obvious choice for a vig, but I'm going to take your claim as true for the moment being. So some questions for you based on that:

1) Who, if anyone, did you attack night 1?
2) Why claim now and expose yourself to the mafia instead of waiting a bit and seeing what else happens? (My train of thought on this one: If Pug isn't lying about being the doctor, before your claim,if Pug were to survive this day, he would have been the best NK choice tonight, just in case. You just gave yourself away and possibly drew out our informartion about Pug. This is not a value judgement of whether I think this is good or bad, because it might give us a lot more information depending on how Glork acts, I'm just curious as to why.)

3. Why ask me specifically? Is it because I keep asking you to talk and stuff?
4. What is your opinion of the most likely scenerio here?

Since I'm asking you that, I might as well throw out what I think the possibilities are:
1. Glork has a NK-immune role.
2. Your status as Vig might be limited. (i.e. maybe you're a 50% vig or something)
3. Someone protected Glork.
3a. Pug is the doctor and lied about protecting me, and thus protected Glork (double why? why Glork and why lie?)
3b. We have another doctor who protected Glork. (why?)
3c. Glork is mafia and the mafia have their own doctor who protected Glork. (which would really suck.)
4. Someone has one of those annoying swapper roles, and possibly flipped Jex's night event with Glork's night event. (as this isn't a rollblock per say, you might not have gotten informed.)

Now then, I think that covers pretty much all of them. Which leaves two more things:

Goldfish, can you paraphrase what your role conditions are in the pm? So that we could get a better idea of efficacy?

Pug, I'd really really really like to hear from you right now.

[Mirth]

3. Why ask me specifically? Is it because I keep asking you to talk and stuff?

Actually its refering to you, but asking Pug. Its Pugs "protect" of you that they want to hear more about.

Ah, I totally misread that just now. I thought the "of" was a "from" Haven't had my morning tea yet. I'm a zombie before I have my tea and prone to fits of dyslexia. I should go remedy that now.

As to the rests of your post: I don't see any reason why a scum doctor would protect a protown player. I don't have that one very high on my list of possibilities though, because in a game like this, it would seem kind of unfair. (Same for the swapper one, but anything is possible.)

I also don't think, if we have a swapper, that it would be a matter of protecting InHim/killing Jex, but swapping InHim (who wasn't the most squeky-clean person yesterday) with Jex (who was), thereby possibly protecting Jex from a mafia NK. I don't, however, think we have a swapper in this game, as they're really bloody annoying and likely to cause more harm than good.

As to scum, well, I think at least one person on the Nox bandwagon page 1 was scum by means of probability alone. So that's Mexal/camisade, Goldfish, or Glork/InHim (since both Jex and Glork are dead.)

What I think of Goldfish, well, fake-claiming Fiona would be a really stupid move, since she was a main character and probably in this game. I don't immeadiatly associate the role with Vig though, so either the Mod has an evil sense of humor or something or it is a fake claim...I'm inclined to belive it for the moment.

As to the other two, well, InHim was inactive and Glork is kind of getting on my nerves with his post style, but there's nowhere near enough talking from either of them to give me an opinion one was or the other. Mexal has some good posts, but that doesn't clear him of anything.

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Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, what was the point in that Glork? Really? We only asked if you had nightkill protection, not who you were. Not only did you just out yourself (assuming you're not lying), but you outed DR as well. I call this a not very smart move and would like to know what in the name of the holy trinity of Darwin, Lamarck, and Mendel possessed you to do it? (as you can possibly tell, I am annoyed. When I am annoyed, my swearing is...interesting...)

DR, how do you feel about all this?

Also, Glork, this doesn't explain your reason for not suspecting Adam/Faerie.

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To tack onto my last post: InHim's posts seem consistant with this claim, though Ben did vote InHim. DR makes no mention of InHim except for saying that he's away and asking for him to comment. I'd like to believe this claim, as the roles probably exist in this game and fake-claiming them is stupid, and the characters seems consistant with masons, but I don't like the claim itself since I just don't like claiming in general, especially unprovoked claiming.

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Not a smart move? If you were told that somebody tried to kill you last night, and you found it reasonably likely that they would try to kill you again, would you feel incentive to claim? Especially when the claim itself is essentially confirmation of your role and alignment?

You're missing a piece of the puzzle here. You're not dead. That means somebody obviously doesn't want you dead. As Goldfish's claim was unwarranted and seems to be a little strange to me (in response to Oman, the most likely role I could possibly see for Fiona would be a lover or sibling. I can't think of anything justifying her being anti-town-aligned from the movies), you would only be in danger if a)Goldfish turns out to be telling the truth about who she is and b)whoever decided to protect you (be it Pug or someone else) either decides you're no longer worth protecting or dies.

I think possibly my only mistake was in naming my mason-partner specifically.

Heck yes. I consider this a mistake as you just gave the scum another target.

Claiming when you are declared as a Vig target is

virtually identical

to claiming when at Lynch-1 and somebody is saying "I'm willing to drop the hammer on this person." If I were in the latter scenario, I imagine you would be absolutely demanding that I claim. Why do you feel it was such a mistake here and now?

The two scenerios are different. See my point about someone protecting you above. A claim of "I'm not NK immune" would hae been sufficient.

And as far as Fae goes, I again have my own reasons. I would explain them, but I am fairly certain that they would out Fae's role as well, and I do not wish to do that (for obvious reasons).

Unless he is also a mason, you have no way of being certain of this, because, if I understand correctly, you and DR only have the powers to talk to each other and no special information gathering skills.

Oman: You're forgetting Jex in your list. Under confirmed townie.

As to the ?=true-whatever-the-heck-saved-Glork, I'm going to guess it's not a roleblocker because of Goldfish's claim. So doc or busdriver.

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What's a bus driver?

Swapper. He picks two people and swaps the nightactions done to them.

[Mirth]

Oh, before I forget, I'm going to have to leave very soon (30 minutes) and won't be able to check the interwebs until this evening. (Sometime around 8 pm est) I figure I'll have a mountain to read with all this roleclaiming.

But back to what I didn't want to forget: If Glork is a mason, this makes me think either Goldfish or Mexal is scum based on probability of having at least one scum on the Nox bandwagon. Mexal, Goldfish, what say you both to this?

[Mirth]

I still want to know why people are assuming PROTECTION and not a ROLEBLOCKER ON GOLDFISH.
What about Goldfish's claim, Mirth, makes you disbelieve that she was not roleblocked? Did she claim that her vigkill was unblockable? Not as far as I can tell. Did people suspect her? Yes, absolutely. Could there be a Mafia roleblocker who would have targeted her? Distinctly possible.

You're shutting out an awful lot of possibilities and making what I believe is a rather large leap of faith to a conclusion that I completely disagree with.

Two reasons. First, if Goldfish is scum, she would want to weed out the doctor, if the doctor isn't Pug. If she's scum, I think her claim is a gambit to get someone to say that they protected you, that way, she takes the doc out with her. (Let's remember now that there was no kill N1 and we don't know if Nox was in fact the scum target.) A doctor that's not Pug claiming is suicide. A roleblocker claiming, however, isn't, because the roleblocker has the chance of blocking the kill on himself if he hits the right player, or has a chance of protection from the doc. Second, if Goldfish isn't lying, well then there isn't a roleblocker. No leaps of faith here.

As far as I can tell, inHim was a lurker who had moderate suspicion on him. I see no reason for most players to have protected him. Also, the existence of a second Doctor would almost necessarily mean that Pug is scum. Thus, the Doctor would be somebody who suspects Pug in spite of his claim (there are, as far as I can remember, only two people who have expressed willingness to lynch Pug today) and somebody who believed inHim to be protown towards the end of yesterday (which I have not checked, but will do in a bit).

Now you're discounting the possibility of two doctors (We don't know if Pug is effective). Or the possibility of the real doctor (if it isn't Pug) keeping Pug around as a distraction. As for InHim, just as InHim didn't do anything innately pro-town, he didn't do anything innately scummy yesterday either. So there is no reason for you to discount protection. In fact, I suggest you keep it in mind.

Glork, I'm much more skeptical of uncertain innocence than uncertain guilt, as I tend to be suspicious of everyone. As to whether or not I'm certain if Goldfish wasn't roleblocked, I'm don't think she was. See my above argument for why. You, on the ther hand, don't provide an arguement for why you think Adam/Faerie is innocent.

As to Mexal or Goldfish, I'm not certain, I think it is most likely based on probability.

[Mirth]

Oooh. Mirth, if you want my opinions on "Certainty" of protownness (and the "MsBuddyLee" reference), see this post from Mafia 60. I think it sums things up pretty nicely. Also, the context of this post is that MBL (scum) attacked me for defending Zindaras (Town) because I exhibited the belief that Zindaras was town, and he didn't see how I could be so "certain" of that possibility.

Disturbingly familiar.

I'll do this later, I have to go, but you're commenting rather blindly here anyway. I suggest you think for a second. About what? Well, I'll let you figure that out yourself.

[Mirth]

It's been a long day. Responses to everything:

Mexal: to my accusation, I was hoping for a rebuff or a consideration of my conjecture or general commentary about it past what you gave. I'm not asking you to claim, but comment on the reasoning.

A roleblocker who claims isn't effectively suiciding. I will grant that, though I fail to see how that's relevant:
A) You have expressed frustration with the number of claims, and I hardly believe that you would want/expect a Roleblocker to come out and claim. Have you ruled out the possibility that a player has posted and elected not to claim? Do you see any compelling reason for an RB to claim (and/or to claim their target from last night)?
B) There are a few players who have not even posted since Gold's claim. Have you ruled out the possibility of one of those players having blocked Gold?
Two things that can very easily point to why an RB might not have claimed (to have blocked Goldfish) yet.

That's right, I don't like claims, but in the case of a roleblocker, it would be a claim that actually leads to results. I actually did miss that a few people we're posting, but I felt like throwing it out there anyway.

And Glork, my problem with your stated opinions is that you don't give a reason for them. I'm throwing out my thought process, you aren't.

Haschel: We don't know if this is a limited reveal game. Grek and Jex could both have just been vanilla townies.

Goldfish: I agree. I have no idea why Pug decided to protect me. I'd like an explanation.

Oman: I'm also inclined to believe at the moment at Goldfish isn't lying.

As to the comments about busdriver/doctor thing, I'd prefer them not claiming, but we all know how I feel about claims.

In other things, I'd like to

Unvote: Haschel

for the moment. I'd very much like an explanation from Pug about protecting me, and will move my vote there if I don't get one soon. My other suspect is Mexal by process of elimination on the Nox bandwagon. I think it is *very* highly unlikely that there were 5 townies on it. Since Jex and Grek are confirmed, and I'm going to have to believe Glork and DR (pulling a mason claim would be too risky of a gambit for the mafia this early, I think), and I'm for the moment inclined to believe Goldfish, this leaves Mexal.

[Mirth]

Yes, my reasoning is poor. I'm grasping at straws here but I also don't completely discount people on lack of acting suspiciously. I don't suspect you enough to move my vote onto you at the moment, but I do suspect you. I'm not curious about camisade's move though (since camisade didn't wagon jump. He was voter number 2 after Goldfish), just your opinion of the probability of there being at least one scum on Nox's bandwagon. I'd like to hear what you think of that specifically.

[Mirth]

Speaking of Goldfish, what do you think of her claim?

[Mirth]

Interesting analysis. If Jex was the doctor, that would mean its a no-role-reveal game, which would not be good. Why don't you think Pug would make up a claim?

Also, what do you make of Goldfish claiming Fiona specifically, since that seems like a role that would be hard to counter claim.

[Mirth]

EBWOP^ I mean hard to fake. Sorry, brain not completely functional. Its one of those roles that probably does exist.

[Mirth]

And yet the only people suspicious of Fiona, an undeniably good character in the movies, are you and Oman. Speaking of Oman, I'd like to throw this out there: Night one, Pug said he protected Nox/Oman. Now then, we don't know if Pug is a doctor or not. If Pug isn't a doctor, I'll be massively FOSing Oman, because as I've said multiple times before, Nox, having a bandwagon on her, didn't clear her of anything. Contentless play doesn't always mean inexperience though. Could be lurking. Who knows. I'm not making any descisions until he answers my question.

[Mirth]

Oh, and one other thing, the people most convinced that I'm town are you and Oman. Also the people most convinced that Goldfish is lying. Coincidence?

[Mirth]

And yet, here you are, perfectly alive. Any idea why?

Also Mexal, I'd like to point out Pug's join date in response to the inexperienced thing.

Speaking of Oman, Oman seems to know who "the real doc is." That implicatly means two things. 1. Oman doesn't think that Pug is the real doctor (and thus didn't protect Nox night one) and 2. This statement supports the idea that Glork was protected and Goldfish was not roleblocked.

Now then, if Goldfish was not roleblocked, that means that Goldfish, as strange as her claim is, is probably telling the truth. And yet, Oman suspects Goldfish. This puzzles me.

[Mirth]

He's had oppurtunity to play and see what's going on on the site. Some players also tend not to post much when they play. So I don't like writing him off as non-experienced.

You miss my reasoning here. I'm not talking about Goldfish's claim now (for that, go back a few pages.) I'm talking about Oman. Oman's comment about knowing who the real doctor is implies that Oman assumes that there is a doctor who isn't Pug and that that person protected Glork. Hence Glork being alive should mean that Goldfish wasn't roleblocked, which would make Goldfish's declaration true. If Goldfish isn't lying there is no reason to suspect her, yet Oman does. Does that make sense?

[Mirth]

I'd like to hear what everyone else has to say about lynching Pug. Also what they think of Oman.

[Mirth]

Anyway, my point is thus: Glork alive does not clear Goldfish, as I do not know who the "real" (I don't know for sure, but it looks certain) doctor protected.

You'd don't? Alright, let me spell it out more explicitly since my main suspects happen to be so sure I'm town, and you and Haschel at least seem to have seen my disgustingly large breadcrumb trail. (I really messed up there, since Glork didn't seem to be getting it when I was more subtle about it.) I don't like claiming, but I have the distinct feeling that I'm going to die tonight regardless, so I might as well clear a couple of things up for the town now, because I think you and I both know that Goldfish isn't lying about attacking Glork at least. (Granted, Goldfish could still be lying about role and alignment, and could simply be curious scum wondering why Glork seems unkillable, but I'm inclined to believe the claim.) I'm also sick of playing cat and mouse with this one.

Glork is alive because I protected him. I.e. Goldfish was not roleblocked. I know this for a fact. I doubt very highly there is a busdriver in this game.

I'm sure you're all wondering something along the lines of "Why the heck?"

The answer to that one is surprisingly simple. (and I breadcrumbed that too. I feel like Hansel and Gretel here.) Night 1, I randomly protected InHim. It worked. And, despite a poorly concieved attempt at early distancing from him with a vote, I've pretty much made it clear that InHim dying wasn't something I wanted to see, as I was pretty darn certain of his alignment. I protected him a second time because I had a hunch that the scum might try hitting him again since a lot of people seemed to want his lynching and the lack of a previous kill. So there was no busdriver switch on Glork and Jex. If there was, Jex would have been alive.

As for why I didn't claim sooner/my opinion on Pug: Just because I know what I can and cannot do, doesn't mean I know what he can and cannot do. I thought there might be a possibility that Pug was a quack, and could thus distract the mafia. (I'm also not stupid enough to out myself day 1.) I wanted to see if he'd live through the night/what he'd do next. He lived and said he protected me. Which, I believe, is a fake claim, as I know I was getting sufficient flak from other people to not be a good night choice. I think at that point the scum were debating whether it was better to kill me at night or to leave me for the town to lynch. (Granted, I was hoping for the second option, but I don't think it's possible now since 3 people have expressed conviction that I'm town, and I'm frankly suspicious of all of them.)

So there you have it. I've virtually just commited suicide, but I've been giving it a lot of thought since Goldfish's claim and feel it is for the best, especially, since this way, with me claiming in the middle of a day, town has more of a chance to discuss about Pug and Goldfish. (I also feel this is better than what will undoubtably have happened tomorrow, with me being dead and the night action being unexplained.)

My vote shall be going to either Oman or Pug soon.

I also believe that Glork, DR, and probably Goldfish are cleared.

So that said, thoughts? Comments? Expressions of not happiness/disbelief/annoyance?

[Mirth]

Mexal, what do you think of Goldfish's claim now? And of Nox/Oman?

[Mirth]

Well...I'm now at an interesting position as I don't want to out this person in case they are a doc and we have two (hooray for us) but I do in case they're scum. I think I'll hold this card if you don't mind for a while. I will tell you guys eventually, but only when it becomes neccesary.

Interesting gambit. I see that my claim was premature now since you were just fishing. Oh well. What's done is done. My name claim:

I'm King Harold.

Absolute, divine, god-appointed monarch (in the style of Louis XIV) of Far Far Away, but I prefer being called an enlightened despot, really. (That Voltaire really knew his stuff...) I enjoy eating a scrumptious brunch of flies and maggots in the company of my lovely wife who may at one point have been a pretend transvestite, making fun of my smelly son-in-law, long walks on the beach, tinkering with gadgets for Mr. Bond, who never returns them, darnit!, getting my behind kicked by Frenchmen who make nonsensicle insults about elderberries, and practicing for stage productions of a certain play by Aristophanes (I'm a natural, you know).

Every night, I can protect whomever I want because

anyone who dares defy me shall be met by death...with nasty, big, pointy teeth

, because I'm King.

Sorry, I couldn't help myself. I really need to sleep more...

[/s]

[Mirth]

Zindaras: ...I am so confused...are you counter-claiming me? Also, who did you protect the first night?

If this is a doc-game, then I'm going to venture a guess that Grek was also a doctor since there seems to be a royal family theme going on here if Zindaras isn't making an oppurtunist claim.

Glork and DR are right out, as is Mirth. I'm really not happy Mirth has taken to quoting role PMs, really not happy, even just on principle.

I didn't quote my role PM. I can assure you that my role PM did not include any of my pre-tea gibberish.

I also still don't understand why you're so anti-Goldfish here.

[Mirth]

I'm going to say that I have no opinion on finishing mass-claiming. I'm not a fan of claiming, but since I felt compelled to do it myself, I'm of the opinion that the non-claimed people should decide at their own descretion.

Zindaras, just one more question for you: what made you choose DR?

And now I have to get going. (This is another one of my days on less than 4 hours of sleep, so lets hope that my liquor-spiked breakfast tea holds up until I get back home.)

[Mirth]

Mmm homemade samosas ^____^ ~Mirth is happy. Mirth loves the Indian grocery across the street.~

Glork, I'd like to hear what you think of all this.

Hmmm... Interesting...Shrek as a Doctor and Fiona as a Vigilante...I'll have to wonder about that one.

Followin question to Zindaras and Haschel (since I already gave my logic): what were your thoughts when Pug claimed?

Also, claims so far, in order of being made:

Pug -- Merlin -- Doctor
Goldfish -- Fiona -- Vigilante
Glork -- Puss in Boots -- Mason
DR -- Donkey -- Mason
Me -- King Harold -- Doctor
Zindaras -- Queen Lillian -- Doctor
Haschel -- Shrek -- Doctor

Now then, if at least two of the doctor claims are real, then we don't know who the night 1 target was. Which means that Glork and DR might not actually be cleared as town. Gosh darn it.

This leaves 3 people not claimed and 2 dead townies whose roles we don't actually know. I still think Merlin fits the theme the least, but it's not a guarentee. I would also venture the following guess: I'm going to assume the bad guy is probably Prince Charming (baring the Mod playing with our heads more than he already is.)

[Mirth]

Hmm I seem to have missed Mexals post. Oh well. Interesting claim. Mexal, why did you investigate Haschel and not Pug?

[Mirth]

Hmmm...sounds reasonable. I'm going to need to do a total reread though. I'm just really exhausted right now and owe a partial reread to the currently deadlined newbie game I'm in, so it might be a while before I can reread this one.

Questions thrown out at random players:
FaerieLord: what are you thoughts about the mass claiming?
Goldfish: I'd like to get your thoughts also.
Pug: Do you think any or all of Haschel, Zindaras, or myself are lying?

Mod: are you sitting back and laughing at us?

Oman: Was Haschel who you thought the other doctor was? If so, what do you think gave it away?

[Mirth]

Oh, and my last question that I forgot: Haschel, how were you so sure of Grek's innocence yesterday?

[Mirth]

Bad plan, Faerie. Mexal probably dies in it. Better to lose a doc than the cop (since we might have 4 of them).

Pug already did name claim. He claimed Merlin, the nutty wizard/Artie's ex-teacher.

Since Faerie claimed Not!Doc, I'm going to do something very uncharacteristic and demand claims from both Faerie and Oman. I will only explain why after they claim. I have a plan. I don't mind if Faerie waits for other peoples input on a claim, but I *demand* a claim for Oman.

[Mirth]

Incidentally, I don't even remember who Artie was in the movies, and Grek died as Artie/Protown.

He was Fiona's teenage cousin who became king. You know, Arthur Pendragon?

[Mirth]

I'm also going to ask something of everybody:

Please don't speculate about future strategy until Oman and Faerie claim.

[Mirth]

Hmmm...why aren't you aware of your predecessor's night action? Didn't the mod tell you? Please find this out if you can.

Faerie, please claim.

[Mirth]

Oh and in my mind, goldfish now looks a viable vig. The idea of heaps of docs and me blocking a scumdoc or lone towndoc (I think he's town, well i'm going to vig him, well I'm going to save him etc) would not occur if there was not a protown Night killing role.

I don't see how multiple doctors make a difference in reference to Goldfish. (If your answer includes strategy analysis, wait for Faerie to claim before answering.)

[Mirth]

Hmmm I'll make a chart of claims and night actions and post it after Faerie claims.

[Mirth]

I'm a bit confused, who did you target night 1? Jex?

[Mirth]

DR, I protected InHim/Glork. (Scroll back and notice the massive breadcrumbing before I claimed.)

I'll make a more substantial post after Faerie finishes his claiming, but for now, I'll say this:

I just realized that masonry doesn't clear all masons, as mixed mason groups can exist. I'll post my complete thoughts on that one later.

For the moment, I'm going to

Vote: Oman

, because even if Oman's claim is legit, it's dangerous to have around.

[Mirth]

I think I'm either the first or second vote on Oman, so I'll keep it there, for now at least.

As for confirmatory night actions, I have a chart going of whats been happened already. I'll post it after Faerie finishes his claim. I must say, though, he's had the advantage of everyone else name-claiming.

[Mirth]

Since Faerie more or less claimed what his power is, Oman would you mind telling us how exactly your claimed role would be helpful?

[Mirth]

Could you please elaborate on that answer? Could you also explain your change of opinion on Goldfish?

[Mirth]

You're the cross-dressing wolf? Heheh

Night one, whom did you track?

[Mirth]

@Mirth. I cross dress?

Also, as I said before. ATA targetted Jex. He found out that Jex targetted him.

Yes, Big Bad Wolf prances around in a woman's nightgown.

Ohhh ATA stands for Adam...okay... I'm dense.

I'm also going to

Unvote:Oman

for the moment being, because I don't know what the vote count is at present and I don't want a lynch just yet. But my vote will go back on him soon.

Next post will have chart.

[Mirth]

Player Character Claim N1 choice N2 choice

Pug Merlin Doctor Nox Mirth
Goldfish Princess Fiona Vigilante N/A? InHim/Glork
Glork/InHim Puss in Boots Mason
DR/Ben Donkey Mason
Mirth King Harold Doctor InHim/Glork InHim/Glork
Zindaras Queen Lillian Doctor N/A DR
Haschel Shrek Doctor Jex Oman
Mexal Pinocchio Cop Glork(I) Haschel(I)
Oman Dragon Doc Roleblocker N/A N/A
Faerie/Adam Big Bad Wolf Tracker Jex Goldfish (targ:Glork)

Next post will have thoughts.

[Mirth]

Grrrrr it screwed up my formatting. Lets try this again:

Player-------Character----------Claim -----------N1 choice -------------N2 choice

Pug ---------Merlin--------------Doctor-------------Nox------------------Mirth
Goldfish-----Princess Fiona-----Vigilante ---------N/A?----------------InHim/Glork
Glork/InHim--Puss in Boots----Mason
DR/Ben------ Donkey----------Mason
Mirth----------King Harold-----Doctor------------InHim/Glork--------InHim/Glork
Zindaras-----Queen Lillian----Doctor------------N/A-------------------DR
Haschel-------Shrek-----------Doctor-----------Jex-------------------Oman
Mexal--------Pinocchio--------Cop--------------Glork(I)-------------Haschel(I)
Oman--------Dragon--------Doc Roleblocker---N/A-----------------N/A
Faerie/Adam--Big Bad Wolf--- Tracker---------Jex(targ:Adam)---Goldfish (targ:Glork)


The commentary:
This means that Glork is almost certainly innocent due to a 3-way confirm on Goldfish's action and a cop-investigation resulting in an innocent. (There is a chance Glork could be a Godfather claiming masons with DR, but I think this is a very slim chance)
This also means that Goldfish is most likely innocent due to a 3-way confirm on her action. (Unless she was fishing for the doc that stopped her, she has no reason to come out with the claim.)
This means DR is most probably innocent. Due to being a mason with Glork, assuming they are both town masons and Glork isn't secretly a Godfather.
I'll buy Haschel, Mexal, and Faerie's claims for now.

Now then, we don't know if Mexal is a sane cop, if the claim is real, but our plan should focus on keeping him alive for as long as possible. The doctors, if doctors they be, shouldn't announce beforehand whom they are protecting, to maximize the probility of a no kill night, as long as someone is protecting Mexal. I think Mexal should start investigations with probably Pug or Zindaras, because I'm not sure if I believe their claims.

The reason I asked for Oman and Faerie to claim was this: I wanted them to throw out their night choices in the open so they couldnt lie later on. I also wan't a confirmation on whether my protection of Glork was effective or if there was another factor involved (since we likely have more than one doctor, I don't think that all of us have total efficency. I know that I have at least partial efficiency. Actually, we don't really know that either, because Goldfish might not be a totally effective vig, but its the best assumption at the moment.) I also didn't want either of them claiming later on in an attempt to frame.

Plan: keep Mexal alive. It would probably be good to keep Goldfish alive, too, since we can then get a town directed night kill.

[Mirth]

Why are you buying Haschel's claim and not mine, Mirth? And what do you think about using a weighted probability set for determining doc protections? (Note: even if we determine a probability set, the doc's eventual choice need not be random)

I'm more skeptical of you because you claimed protecting DR after DR and Glork already came out as masons, as there might be something to gain from claiming to protect a player who is most likely innocent. I'm less suspicious of Haschel because of his claim of protecting Oman, from whom there wasn't much to gain at the moment. Now then, I know my skepticism of you is based on WIFOM, but I don't doubt your claim as much as I doubt Pug's, so I would prefer above all if Mexal investigated Pug.

I'm not sure what you mean by probability set. Please explain.

Also, I noticed Oman didn't answer my question about who he thought the doctor was.

[Mirth]

Im not liking it too much because the mafia could then go after a nondoctor instead and invalidate the chain. I'd like it if either Faerie or Goldfish got protection, as they might prove useful later, probably Goldfish more so, but I do plan on protecting Mexal as we know that have been effective at least once. (probably)

[Mirth]

Hmmm, interesting. My grasp of the Nash equilibrium isn't too solid (I'm better at calculus, though horribly rusty either way) but I think I understand what you're getting at. Decisin by coinflip?

[Mirth]

I get the basics of a Nash equilibirium, but I doubt I could extend it beyond the Bonnie and Clyde example I'm most familiar with.

[Mirth]

I don't particularly like that plan as, despite Oman and Pug being my top suspects the logic of it doesn't follow. If Oman is scum, I would actually be more disturbed by Pug because of a possible attempt at clearing a partner while not knowing how many doctors there are in the game.

We should also write out the contingencies before the lynch for both scenerios as there is no talking post lynch.

I believe with Pug's vote, Oman is at L-3.

Also, no comments on anything else, Pug? A lot of stuff has happened since you last checked in, and all you can do is vote? (I'm thinking I would like Pug vig-killed regardless of Oman's alignment, because I' very tempted to vote Pug right now, but Oman's role could be more dangerous.)

If Pug is going to be set up for a vig kill, we have 8 players to worry about. If Pug isn't set up for a vig kill, we have 9. With three or four possible docs. This is where my ability to do math fails me.

[Mirth]

It seems DR is trying to break us into sets of characters. Couple things I don't like about DR's post based on his own logic:

1. The obscurity assumptions on name claims. Gingy, Pinocchio and Big Bad Wolf belong to the same class of characters, in that they always appear together. Differentiating amongst them and trying to use that as basis of a pro/con argument seems to be innately flawed. Thus on character claim alone Pinocchio and Bg Bad Wolf should be equally plausible. (In fact assuming for a second that neither Mexal nor Faerie are lying, I would venture of guess Jex would also have have an investigative role.)
2. Including Shrek as a royal doctor seems more counterintuitive than including Merlin in the set. That is Merlin is connected to Artie, a royal. He is also not a main character. Shrek, on the other hand, while technically royal, is not in the same class of character as either Lillian or Harold. If anything, as a hero, he would more logically be included in a grouping with Puss and Donkey do to role and type. (Hero vs. plot device/supporting character and fairytale creature vs. human.)

But then, these points, like any of your points based only on characterization, are only speculative and border very closely on the pier of the lake of WIFOM, and shouldn;t be looked at as particularly valid.

The only great point you raise, I believe, is in the possibility of Mexal's sanity. (I have mentioned my own sanity before, as well as Goldfish's effectiveness. I only have partial sanity confirmation *if* Goldish has full efficacy. I obviously lack full sanity confirmation due to not knowing who the night one target was. This same point applies to the other claimed doctors.)

[Mirth]

Oman, no comments on anything else? Just waiting?

[Mirth]

I don't find Glorks unvote particularly noteworthy. You, on the other hand, have the most votes right now, and happen to be one of my top two suspects, so I'm watching your moves. You also failed to answer a question I've asked multiple times. When you said you knew who the doc was, who did you mean and why?

[Mirth]

Two more questions for you Oman: How do you feel about the bandwagon on you and who do you think is the best lynch today?

[Mirth]

Vote: Pug89

Screw the safe/information play. Simply put, I find Pug much more likely to be scum than Oman.

Explain to me how Oman's claim makes sense as a pro-town role. Then take a look at the other behavioural points I've raised against him.

The logical conclusion is to lynch Oman. Because he's scum. And stuff.

I don't think he's debating Oman being scummy. Just that he thinks Pug is scummier.

[Mirth]

DR, your preposition is actually entirely up to the cop, I have to say, since ultimately Mexal is the final word on who gets investigated. (I'm still not sure of Mexal's sanity though.)

[Mirth]

Mexal: my issue with your sanity is this: I'm generally paranoid and don't trust anybody's sanity including my own. It is most likely that both of us are effective due to crossconfirmation on Glork, but there's also the possibility that Glork and DR are both lying (I think this is a small possibility, but I do not wish to discount anything off hand. Just like I'm going to keep in mind that there is the possibility that you too are lying. I'm not going to function off of these possibilities, since there is nothing to support them, and will take some claims at face value, but I will keep in mind alternate possibilities.) And additional problem that might arise is if either Glork or Haschel were investigation immune.

[Mirth]

I'm not saying I'm worried about you being insane. Insane actually isn't so bad because we then know that we need to flip your results. It would, however, be really bad if you were naive (we know that you're not paranoid) or totally random.

[Mirth]

I like Zindaras's weighted probabilities idea better, honestly.

[Mirth]

Yet your idea leaves people obviously open so it doesnt prove if doctors are effective or not either.

[Mirth]

Yet your idea leaves people obviously open so it doesnt prove if doctors are effective or not either.

But leaves the key players protected.
If Mirth is assigned to protect Mexal and Mexal shows up dead then there may be something wrong with Mirth.
If Mirth is assigned to protect either Mexal or FaerieLord and Mexal shows up dead all Mirth has to say is "Sorry, I chose to protect FL" so Mirth can be as much scum as she wants and will go on unharmed.
By the way, I already know that Mirth hates everything about all my ideas except a the note about Pinocchio's character that puts little doubt about his sanity. Interesting.
Now I want OTHER opinions.

I know you're quite convinced that I'm evil, but my problem with your plan is this:

If I'm assigned to protect Mexal, and all the other doctors have their assignments as well, the mafia will just kill someone outside of the assignments. Thus there is no chance to check if any of the doctors are lying because their protection targets will not be the mafia targets that night. If the mafia wants fake doctor claims to win, they'd be smart to leave their doctors supposed target alive and just go after someone both they and the town know isn't protected. So we don't find out much that way.

[Mirth]

This is the beauty of it. If we pick the two scummiest players to be "outside" doc protects (or is it 3...i forgot how many docs we have) then the mafia will possibly be left with no alternative but to no kill if the two or three outside are scum.

How do you purpose this? We have 10 people alive now. With a lynch today (which I have a feeling will be youd), that leaves 9, with 4 claimed doctors. That way, only 4 people are possibly protected is definate assignments are given.

[Mirth]

Problem here, Haschel: scum will just kill Faerie or DG or one of the masons.

[Mirth]

Im just saying I think Zindaras's weighted probabilities protection seems like a better idea, because scum are less likely to get a kill.

[Mirth]

I agree with Zindaras. The other plan has its merits but with Zindaras's plan isn't as affected by the possibility of a scumdoc.

Actually it is, but it makes it more likely for a scum doc to be outed due to where the kill happens if there is one.

[Mirth]

I shall be voting for Oman a bit closer to deadline. The chart from before seems fine, but we should figure out who the investigators and Goldfish are targeting.

[Mirth]

I'm pretty sure the decision will be lynching either Oman, with Oman being the more strategically sound lynch. The main decisions that need to be made are order of protection and night investigations.

[Mirth]

Mondays are my days from the not fun land of firey imps with pitchforks. So this will be short. I think we should have a vote on protection plans and night actions before anything else happens.

I'm for weighted probabilities. I'm also for Goldfish vig-killing Pug, Mexal investigating either Goldfish, Zindaras, or myself, and Faerie tracking whichever doctor Mexal doesn't investigate.

[Mirth]

If Goldfish vigs the only person worth vigging is Pug. (I don't think anyone else is anywhere near that suspicious, besides Oman who would be a better lynch candidate today.)

Could y'all post your night action thoughts, since we are deadlined and all for 3 days from now. If no one agrees on plan of action by Thursday, I'll announce my protection target, since the probability thing can only work is everyone agrees.

[Mirth]

What about the other stuff I asked, Haschel? (so you're for weighted?)

[Mirth]

Actually, Mexal, the odds would be equal. I'd really like to hear everybodys opinions on investigation targets though.

[Mirth]

What about your opinions of everything else? (And I would like Mexal to state a clear target at least.)

[Mirth]

So basically as long as you're guarenteed protection, you're happy and the rest of us can do as we please? Hmm.. how about this:

Haschel definately protects Mexal.
I protect either Goldfish, or Faerie
Zindaras protects either Glork, or DR
Pug protects either Hashel, myself, or Zindaras.

This more or less forces a doc kill, Pug being the only guarenteed definate kill. Any of the other doctors die, the living doctors are automatically suspects. (This depends on if we decide Goldfish needs to vig tonight or not, though).

[Mirth]

Which still yeilds more information then scum just killing someone obviously unprotected which is what will happen with definate assignments. At this point, I just want a decision to be made on best course of night action

[Mirth]

Hmmm...why would you have Pug protecting Mexal?

[Mirth]

No, you miss the point of my question. Why Pug, who you have treated as your number one suspect (and who is very suspicious, and even if not lying, possibly ineffective as a doctor due to character), protecting Mexal?

[Mirth]

Glork, that is based on the assumption that if Pug is scum the mafia wouldn't be okay with trading him for getting rid of a cop.

I'm not too keen on a no-lynch, because we don't know how many mafia we have. Would you have been asking this question if you weren't the probable lynch?

[Mirth]

This still leaves the question of protection unsolved.

[Mirth]

Why Glork and DR over Faerie and Golfish?

[Mirth]

Hmmm. While Goldfish isn't confirmed, I think I do trust her role claim because she didn't really have any reason to out herself. That and she might be useful as a town-directed nightkill.

I'm also guessing that weighted probabilities has lost. How about this then:

Haschel protects Mexal (since Mexal seems to trust him most.)
I protect Goldfish (since I am buying her claim)
Zindaras protects Glork or Faerie (with a 75% chance of protecting Faerie based on two coinflips)
Pug protects Glork or DR (with a 40/60 percent chance)

I don't think this is a particularly useful plan, since the mafia will just kill me or Haschel, but most of you seem completely against weighting everything. The above depends solely on Mexal and Faerie not lying, not sure how comfortable I am with that.

[Mirth]

I'm not liking how you rank Zindaras below Pug on that chain. I think Zindaras, while suspicious, is much much much less suspicious than Pug. I purpose swapping those. Other than that, I'm fine with that plan. (I don't mind being bait, since I would make a better kill than Faerie, I think.)

[Mirth]

One thing I don't get, Mexal: why are you fine with a 50/50 probability on you now and we're before, what with all the arguing about it?

[Mirth]

Oh, and before I we do anything, I want a promise from Goldfish that she will not kill anyone, a definite investigation target from Mexal, and a promise from Haschel to actually use a random coin flip.

[Mirth]

Because I don't completely trust you, Mexal. If you declare who you're investigating now, you can't wiggle out of it tomorrow. Unlike Faerie, you can't really be cross-confirmed. He can say he tracked someone, and that person can back up the action. (Granted, tomorrow, I'm going to ask that no one says what they until Faerie gives his tracking target, so that he doesn't have a convienant set up like today.) No one can cross-confirm you. So I'd like you to declare your target.

I also don't see why you like this set up more than Zindaras's. The only thing that changed is that Haschel is coinflipping you instead of me.

Which makes me wonder about you even more, honestly. Glork was already pretty much confirmed innocent when you claimed, so I'm not ruling out the possibility that you and Haschel are partners and you may have used Glork as validation for your claim.

[Mirth]

Mexal, that was my strategic reason. I don't know if I think that you and Haschel are partners. Its a possibility that I'm not discounting. The strategic reason is this: tomorrow you can always claim to have investigated someone who turned up dead. If I'm the only one who feels that you need to declare your night action, I won't push it, but I'm keeping my eye on you.

Also, you seemed to object very heavily to not having guarenteed protection, and now are fine with it.

Mod: can we have a vote count?

I don't want to prematurely hammer, if deadline isn't til tomorrow.

[Mirth]

Darnit, Goldfish why did you do that?

[Mirth]

Hmmm. Interesting. I too would like to hear what FaerieLord has to say, though I am surprised that Pug came up town.

[Mirth]

Mexal, please wait.

[Mirth]

Er...what? (Also, for the record, I am sooooo not happy about the quicklynch you guys pulled, as you could have milked it for more information.) Yes, Oman, that was a dumb role claim...

So I'm guessing we wait to find out what the heck just happened. If there were only two mafia, we wouldn't have gone into night. Since Kaleidoscope mentioned Glork and DR specifically, it must have something to do with them. (For the record, DR was my night protect on the coinflip, since I really did flip a coin, and Glork was my night protect after you guys quicklynched, if that helps with any confusion of what the heck just happened.)

[Mirth]

Wait...Oman...was Zindaras your only partner?

[Mirth]

...had I known you didnt get my night 1 pm (i did send one) for protecting InHim, I probably wouldn't have been defending him so much to begin with, so that turned out lucky.

So, basically, what you're saying is that if Glork and DR wanted, they could have just continued the game and had the rest of us lynch eachother? Wouldn't that be sort of pointless though? Since that could backfire on them? Also, was there a specific reason why Lillian and Dragon were mafia? (I was trying to figure out what theme with characters was for like ever. I like patterns.)

[Mirth]

Also, by the way, the town was

way

too quick to confirm people as pro-town based on claims and other information. You made a boatload of dangerous assumptions, and I was unfortunately not in the position to point them out (as I kinda had to survive).

I am totally guilty of this, as I didn't realize it was a doc theme game and that the mod didn't get my night 1 pm. So I spent it assuming that my protect on Glork meant he was town, since it seemed inconcievable to me that the mafia would fail to send in a target and I wasn't expecting 5 doctors.

I must say though, while amusing, this game was heavily unbalanced and didn't really give the scum much of a chance once we broke it.

[Mirth]

Mirth, what other information could we have milked?

Well, looking at the set-up now, I'd have to say none, but I stand by my quicklynches are bad, even on confirmed scum, point.