Mini Normal 2323 [There is an Inventor] | FIN

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sup nerds

VOTE: Black

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Btw, my initial thought because this game is 12 players and complex is that there's probably only 2 scum but one is a vigilante

I'm kinda disappointed I didn't roll mafia vigilante tbh

I think vig is town only in normals

[ssbm_Kyouko]

As always, town

Imagine never rolling scum, like some kind of reverse gob situation

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hu's entrance feels forced and unnatural. I'm upgrading my RVS vote to a real one

I like Hu's entrance. Maybe I'm normally paying more attention to other players but I feel like this is one of, if not the first time I've seen something AI from HT this early. They're usually one I have a hard time reading

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Hu Tao

I might as well

get this out of the way

now, since this is my usual tunnel. Maybe

get it out of my system.

Is this an RVS vote or do you actually think I'm scum here based on my limited content so far?

RVS, I just wanted to

get a vote on you out of the way

early.

The game started while I was asleep. This is like the 4th game where the game starts overnight and when I wake up and RVS I get scolded for still trying to have an RVS vote.

UNVOTE:

This is a weird way to talk about your vote and you keep doing it, something is up here
VOTE: Celebloki

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Katsuki would you say your juggernaut claim was a joke?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm liking Black's thought process so far. I think it's not totally out of her scum range but it does feel genuine and I feel okay townleaning her for now.

I don't fully see the Hu Tao scum read so I'm gonna try something different

VOTE: Gamma

What about her scumread on me do you not like?

I like the scumread, I just feel your response to it was fine I guess

you're putting reads in my mouth, for that I'm displeased
refrain from doing it again or you may wind up deceased
I've not spoken a word about Hu Tao as of yet
so I don't see why that relates to the vote that I get

looks to me like "her" is Black and "try[ing] something else" is voting you

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I rolled a dice and it told me that there is Dragonwolf in this game
VOTE: DragonEater70

Oh noooo how did you find me out so quickly

VOTE: DragonEater70

This game is boring

I claim mafia

VOTE: DragonEater70

VOTE: Dragon

VOTE: Dragon

Let's go.

Why do you do this

VOTE: Dragon

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hu's entrance feels forced and unnatural. I'm upgrading my RVS vote to a real one

I like Hu's entrance. Maybe I'm normally paying more attention to other players but I feel like this is one of, if not the first time I've seen something AI from HT this early. They're usually one I have a hard time reading

What do you consider AI from her this game?

I've gone a little back and forth with her in my head. My initial read was that solvey!Hu equals scum!Hu but I looked over a couple of other recent town games of hers and that kinda ruined that theory, so I'm back at null leaning town probably

I think she picked up on Thomith's tone in a way scum would not have - when I saw his post I thought "haHaa" like a forced/awkward laugh should follow it somehow, like "haha, just kidding guys". And Hu Tao pointed that out, I feel like I don't see insights like that from them this early usually.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like at first her play felt like Micro Normal 1094 which I think Thomith pointed out too, but when I looked at Mini Normal 2319 I saw similarities there too. She's hard to read and I don't think meta is going to be the best avenue to try and do it

The meta I have on them is that they are hard to read though (like Elements is hard to read, but for a different reason), I'm not trying to compare to specific games as different alignments, just going by my recollection

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I rolled a dice and it told me that there is Dragonwolf in this game
VOTE: DragonEater70

Oh noooo how did you find me out so quickly

VOTE: DragonEater70

This game is boring

I claim mafia

VOTE: DragonEater70

VOTE: Dragon

VOTE: Dragon

Let's go.

Why do you do this

If I told you, you wouldn't believe me

Ok let's hear it anyway

I enjoy being wagoned early

I might be superstitious but I feel it helps me find scum better (especially when said scum is on my wagon)

Also I just hate being nullread by people. I feel a lot better being either scum read or townread.

I kinda vibe with this - I dont enjoy being wagoned early or at all, but I do tend to find the scum on my wagons when they happen.

I think voting yourself is kinda counterintuitive to this though - it's only going to scare people away usually, not build the wagon. Which is why it's sus you did it twice

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Everyone else null

Are you not getting anything out of Katsuki?

Not really? Should I be getting something out of them?

Like it feels they are just talking about past games and self-meta / playstyle

Eh, not particularly. Just wanted to see where your head was at with them

I think Katsuki's claim in RVS was a reaction test, not a joke as a lot of people seem to be saying. It's kinda weird to me that nobody else thought that, but maybe it's an older playstyle thing? I feel like that kind of play used to be pretty common early on, especially in RVS. It seems pretty plainly town-motivated to me, and the fact that Katsuki didn't answer me about it later I think reinforces that it wasn't done because scum!Katsuki was trying a LAMIST approach. I think if it were scum-motivated Kat would have brought attention to that themself (on mobile can't check pronouns in pedit sorry)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I’ve only this once before to memory, so I’m concerned
What data davesaz thinks he can upturn

I feel like I've seen you do this before so maybe I was in the game the one time it happened, cant remember the game though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

convenient excuse of "oh I forgot"

Forgetting is a RL thing. Accusing me of lying about RL is a pretty dangerous thing to do.

Neither of us can prove it, it is what it is, hence why I haven't pushed you on it at all

, only on the way you entered this game which I found off.

I don't think I really consider this often as scum but I definitely consider it when I'm town. Like I'll hold off on a scumread til later if it's for a 'crazy' reason - maybe that's a product of getting mislimmed early in my career for unusual reads

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I really don’t vibe with the Naerys votes
So my current chance of townreading those two is remote

I think kitty could be scum

The conviction in his Naerys read feels unnatural

I really don't see what's towny at all about Naerys except a vague meta read? To the contrary the push Nae made is very unnatural.

Leaving off here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh I almost never spectate unless I'm dead in the game, I probably read it for meta at some point if i wasnt in it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also think Kyo's vote on and approach to my slot is pretty scummy. Like she voted me for apparently self-voting, people asked her of that's the reason and she didn't answer. Now that she' s back in the thread she says she "vibes with" my explanation of the self vote but kept the vote on me with no further commemt.

This doesn't feel like an accurate representation to me...

"Like she voted me for apparently self-voting":

This is a partial truth. The whole truth, as I've already explained, is that I think you're self-voting to break up wagons forming on yourself, despite your claims that you're trying to build wagons on yourself to catch scum on them.

"people asked her of that's the reason and she didn't answer":

Nobody asked me why I voted you. I'm double checking now, and the closest anyone came to asking was Thomith when he assumed I had been asked why I voted you in 378. To this point, still nobody has asked me, though I've already given my reason.

"Now that she' s back in the thread she says she "vibes with" my explanation of the self vote but kept the vote on me with no further comment":

snipped, and [edited] below

Ok let's hear [why you self vote] anyway

I enjoy being wagoned early

I might be superstitious but I feel it helps me find scum better (especially when said scum is on my wagon)

Also I just hate being nullread by people. I feel a lot better being either scum read or townread.

I kinda vibe with this - I dont enjoy being wagoned early or at all, but I do tend to find the scum on my wagons when they happen.

I think voting yourself is kinda counterintuitive to this though - it's only going to scare people away usually, not build the wagon. Which is why it's sus you did it twice

When I say "I

kinda

vibe with this", emphasis on the kinda, I'm saying I partially agree with how you feel about being wagoned - because being wagoned helps me find scum better. The problem with this though, is that voting yourself is not conducive to getting a wagon going on yourself where you'll be able to identify the scum on your wagon. I think the real reason you're voting yourself here when wagoned, is to discourage any more votes coming your way. Furthermore, if you really were trying to build up your own wagon to find the scum on it, I would expect a more convincing read than this (combined with the snippet of 480 I'm breaking down now):

Also

Are we just gonna ignore how Kyouko jumped on my wagon with a practically naked vote, and her other engagement with the game could be summed up by a bunch of nothing posts and then overexplaining why Hu Tao is town for scumreading Thomith?

tl;dr - Dragon is generalizing my posts and ignoring the details where it's convenient for his faked scumread on me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also how generalizing = fake scumread?

The lack of attention to detail feels intentional

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Uh why is cCS on E-2? I feel like I missed something important?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like you either don't know why snivy is getting votes in which case you should just read the 2 pages since you last posted to find out, or you do know why he's being voted and you think there's something sus about the wagon, in which case you should express your thoughts and not just ask the room what they think

yeah I'd been reading, on my phone, did not see what the original reason to vote cCS was but I gathered that Gamma was the first to do it, and it seemed like everyone else was sheeping, which is why I was wondering why it happened so fast. I want someone to answer so when I'm back on my PC tomorrow I can compare what's actually happened to how people explain it. I dont want to be backtracking and looking through ISOs on my phone in the evenings.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What don't you like about me trying to figure out Gamma?

The fact that it feels more like a prepared comedy

Which posts look this way to you? I don't remember seeing anything like that from Gamma

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Naerys - Why are me and Hu Tao wrong on Dragon?

I don't think dave and Gamma are s/s. I think Dave is town - looking at his ISO, Dave looks to be genuinely sorting Gamma. I'm not sure why he's rhyming along with Gamma, my guess is it's just for fun, but there's an indication that it might be some sort of bait. I think pointing out that Gamma might be avoiding being tone-read by 2 people in this game at least refers to me as one of the 2 people, maybe the other is dave himself? Regardless, I don't think Gamma is rhyming to avoid being tone-read by me at least. I can only tone-read very specific posts of hers and she can just not post them at all if she's scum, though I suspect that is hard for Gamma to do in some cases.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Naerys - Why are me and Hu Tao wrong on Dragon?

I don't think dave and Gamma are s/s. I think Dave is town - looking at his ISO, Dave looks to be genuinely sorting Gamma. I'm not sure why he's rhyming along with Gamma, my guess is it's just for fun, but there's an indication that it might be some sort of bait. I think pointing out that Gamma might be avoiding being tone-read by 2 people in this game at least refers to me as one of the 2 people, maybe the other is dave himself? Regardless, I don't think Gamma is rhyming to avoid being tone-read by me at least. I can only tone-read very specific posts of hers and she can just not post them at all if she's scum, though I suspect that is hard for Gamma to do in some cases.

Do you have like an actual real read on Gamma? Aren't you supposed to be really good at reading her?

Not yet no, I usually skim her early posting unless she's asking me direct questions because I can usually rely on her to at some point post something that pings me if she is scum. If the game goes long enough without me getting pinged I'll go back through her ISO and I should be able to read her from there - the less I interact with her now the less poisoned my read will be later. I've found I'm good at just reading a Gamma ISO without being in the game and guessing correctly on Town or Scum if I have enough to read.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Deadline in this game is on a weekend, so I won't be around for it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Where I am right now, I still think that Dragon is most likely to flip scum out of the leading nom candidates based off of a number of factors. I also have a sneaking suspicion that there's a good chance he is the strongest PR the wolves have.

Purely to get under your brain wrinkles, assuming this is the case, do you feel Naerys/Black are acting in a way that would back the idea of your solve up?

Their posting threw me for a bit of a loop tbh. I was far more certain about it being the 3 of them last night when I was lying in bed than today.

Black's been my most solid scumread today and I would like to think I'm not wrong on that one.
I didn't like a lot of Dragon's posts that he made recently, namely #348, 372, 375 and 428.

Early game certainly gave me Black/Naerys partner vibes. I feel like if we actually do have Dragon and Black both flipping scum, we can probably safely nom Naerys and then if we're wrong, go from there.

Black has also been a solid SR for me,

as has Thom but you seem to town-lean them so I can ask the reasoning for that in particular? I'll check over the posts you have here, a lot of what I don't like about Dragon is from his early game. It felt incredibly detached and showoffish, trying way too hard so I don't understand how anybody town-reads that based off vibe alone. Content wise I don't have any particular thoughts onhim.

This feels like a surprise to me, I can hardly tell what you're talking about in most of your posts with her because it seems sort of abstract and tbh I'm having a hard time following what some of the run-on sentences mean even if I try to slow them down or put my own punctuation in. Idk I'm feeling pretty glazed up reading this game right now, can you explain this read, preferably with quotes?

I guess I could have missed this in your 1-10 catchup actually now that I think on it, I didn't want to do all the post-tag clicking

Like this in particular, felt to me like the tone is not one someone would take with a scumread:

I get better as the game goes on but even later you'll see me second guessing myself constantly

I know very well you're good at the game, I can't wait to see you pop off

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Has anybody played with Dragon before?

Black, Hu Tao, and I have a recent completion with him

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think Naerys wanting to flip a null read over her scumreads indicates that she doesn't really care who is faded. The argument that a Snivy flip gives us a lot of info doesn't check out either considering he's one of the least active slots in the game

Basically Naerys my confusion is

You are voting Katsuki, saying you are scumreading Gamma/dave, but you want Snivy limmed.

Can you walk me through this

I parked my vote on Katsuki bcz of that ugly picture.
Gamme/dave was a gut feeling i had at a certain point
i wanted Snivy limmed bcz it would give decent info
now i think its better to lim me, only claim scum will get from me is "vanilla" tho

Naerys wtf are you doing

If you are scum you should fight

If you are town you should fight even harder

I have a plan.

Two things come to mind here.
If Naerys is town vengeful hoping to bait scum, I think her reads are more likely to lose us another town. It's hard to tell given my reads aren't all that strong, but just a bad feeling here.
It's also possible she's scum with cCS and with a less valuable role.

I was also thinking she's vengeful, but why ever would you say that out loud???

Yeah it feels like the obvious answer, but idk why you'd say that out loud either.
I will say if its true, I likely get shot and we have 2 town dead at the end of Day 1.

I feel like at least one or both of you are cappin - didn't occur to me in a normal, even if it's complex, to think she's vengeful. And I think dave's post makes it clear why he did point it out - he's worried Naerys's reads are bad to the point that we'd lose 2 town if vengeful!Naerys was limmed. I think if dave is scum he doesn't have to make that post ITT - that can go to the scum PT.

Oh, reading closer Thomith isn't saying he'd thought the same thing, just saying it makes sense. Which is where I was at - not saying anything about it now and just sort of bookmarking dave as +town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

yeah so this isn't particularly adventurous I don't think but I'm thinking
{Hu Tao, Katsuki, davesaz} are those that I'm not down for on a TR basis

Black - I don't see what Katsuki is potentially seeing, I don't think she's really at risk toDay but I'm not interested. Idk what her scum game looks like but I've had decent success finding her when she's town.
cCS - I do think what Katsuki says about the timing of this wagon has merit - there were 3 stalled wagons at 3 a piece before this came to be, and personally I don't find any of the votes that compelling. From what I remember Gamma has a suspicion based on meta but hasn't been specific about how cCS has been different in this game. The rest of the votes feel like they sort of flooded in so I'm thinking scum are fine with this wagon toDay, and I'm not down for that
Gamma I'm never going to want on D1 unless I spot she's scum, because I'm good at catching her when she is. I tend to view her as an inevitability if I leave her along long enough.

DE - I want DE the most toDay - I've been pretty tunneled on this I think but it is what it is, I'm trying to branch out a little more I just don't see much else that pings me, and it helps that HT and Katsuki are on the wagon as well.

JV - I had a hard time following JV's catchup but I was pretty glazed up at the time, and the tone with Black seems inconsistent with his stated read. Happy going here.

I don't have really fresh thoughts on anyone else, I suppose I'd be fine with any of them if my vote is needed to get a wagon through before deadline.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Naerys - Why are me and Hu Tao wrong on Dragon?

I don't think dave and Gamma are s/s. I think Dave is town - looking at his ISO, Dave looks to be genuinely sorting Gamma. I'm not sure why he's rhyming along with Gamma, my guess is it's just for fun, but there's an indication that it might be some sort of bait. I think pointing out that Gamma might be avoiding being tone-read by 2 people in this game at least refers to me as one of the 2 people, maybe the other is dave himself? Regardless, I don't think Gamma is rhyming to avoid being tone-read by me at least. I can only tone-read very specific posts of hers and she can just not post them at all if she's scum, though I suspect that is hard for Gamma to do in some cases.

Do you have like an actual real read on Gamma? Aren't you supposed to be really good at reading her?

Not yet no, I usually skim her early posting unless she's asking me direct questions because I can usually rely on her to at some point post something that pings me if she is scum. If the game goes long enough without me getting pinged I'll go back through her ISO and I should be able to read her from there - the less I interact with her now the less poisoned my read will be later. I've found I'm good at just reading a Gamma ISO without being in the game and guessing correctly on Town or Scum if I have enough to read.

Do you have a read on GE yet?

no and I probably won't until toMorrow unless she says something that pings me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Naerys - Why are me and Hu Tao wrong on Dragon?

I don't think dave and Gamma are s/s. I think Dave is town - looking at his ISO, Dave looks to be genuinely sorting Gamma. I'm not sure why he's rhyming along with Gamma, my guess is it's just for fun, but there's an indication that it might be some sort of bait. I think pointing out that Gamma might be avoiding being tone-read by 2 people in this game at least refers to me as one of the 2 people, maybe the other is dave himself? Regardless, I don't think Gamma is rhyming to avoid being tone-read by me at least. I can only tone-read very specific posts of hers and she can just not post them at all if she's scum, though I suspect that is hard for Gamma to do in some cases.

Do you have like an actual real read on Gamma? Aren't you supposed to be really good at reading her?

Not yet no, I usually skim her early posting unless she's asking me direct questions because I can usually rely on her to at some point post something that pings me if she is scum. If the game goes long enough without me getting pinged I'll go back through her ISO and I should be able to read her from there - the less I interact with her now the less poisoned my read will be later. I've found I'm good at just reading a Gamma ISO without being in the game and guessing correctly on Town or Scum if I have enough to read.

Do you have a read on GE yet?

no and I probably won't until toMorrow unless she says something that pings me

Do you not think that's scum indicative for her? I just exoect to be town pinged by her but I am not.

No, I don't. I think I've heard that sentiment before, but Gamma doesn't usually townping me as town. Maybe it's because I'm more attuned to her scum play that I read her differently than most people that say they can read Gamma do

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why are you so fixated on me wrt Gamma? I feel like I've said the same thing like three different ways now

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My avatar is from Pokemon but it's a little more obscure so only the real cool kids will recognize it

I guessed as much from the stlye but I dont recognize it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

it's more of a body-of-work concept
there's a seeming apathy towards me that I just can't accept

Open 895, I think was the game number. The 9:12 alianna modded (not the ongoing one that she ran back to back). Maybe you didn't notice it then because you were scum but this is how I read you these days

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler:

Complete:
01. Mini Normal 1850 - VT - Eliminated Day 1 - Town Win
03. Open 659: Jungle Republic - Vanilla Townie - NKed Night 1 - Town Loss
04. Birds of Paradise - Goon - Flawless Mafia Win
05. Newbie 1764: Wind - Replaced Goon - Flawless Mafia Win
07. Open 660: White Flag - VT - Eliminated D4 - Town Loss
08. Mini 1860 - Town 1-Shot Commuter - Vigged Night 2 - Town Win
09. Micro 661: Scumteam unpick - Replaced VT - Eliminated D1 - Town Win
11. Open 663: Stack the Deck - VT - Killed Night 1 - Town Win
12. Large Normal 200 - VT - Vigged N2 - Town Win
13. Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir - VT - Vigged N3 - Town Loss
14. Mini Normal 1865 - VT - Endgamed - Town Loss
15. Code Geass - Shinichiro Tamaki (Town) - Venged D1 - Town Win
21. Mini Normal 2057 - Town Mason (Replaced Out mid-way) - Town Win
22. Mini Normal 2213 - VT - Town Loss
24. Mini Theme 2217: Owners Market Blitz - VT (elected MO) - Survived - Town Win
25. Mini Normal 2218 - Mafia Odd Night Strongman - Mafia Loss
26. Large Normal 233 - Mafia Goon - Mafia Loss
28. Mini Theme 2225: Chrono Trigger Chronicles - VT - Eliminated D1 - Town Win
30. Mini Theme 3001: Radio Buzz - Insurgent (VT) - Eliminated D4 - Town Win
32. Open 827: Dead Silence III - Town Mason - Daykilled - Town Win
33. Mini Normal 2232 - VT - Killed N2 - Town Loss
35. Large Normal 236 - Mafia 1-Shot Loud Visitor - Eliminated D1 - Mafia Loss
36. Mini Theme 2228: Isekai uPick - Akatsuki (Town Tracker/Restricted Watcher) - Survived - Town Win
37. Mini Normal 2238: (Modded by Dwlee99) - VT - Survived - Town Win
38. Mini Theme 2240: SCP uPick - Researcher (Town) Panacea - NKed Night 2 - Town Loss
40. Mini Theme 2244: 3d20 uRoll - (19, 13, 10) Cult Leader Complex Mason Finder - Killed N1 - Cult Loss
41. Mini Normal 2239: AQAtPimP - Town 2-Shot JOAT - Killed N4 - Town Loss (Vigged N_M and blocked a NK with my JOAT powers)
42. Manatee's Pokemon Large Theme - Town Azurill - Killed N1 - Town Loss
43. Large 237 - Mafia Doctor - Eliminated D1 - Mafia Loss
44. Mini 2247: Mountain Dew Mafia - Replaced Livewire (VT) - Survived - Town Win
47. Open 893: 9:12 - Vanilla Townie - Survived - Town Win
49. Mini Theme 2320: Smuggler's Port 2 - Merchant (VT) - volunteered as tribute D1 - Town Win

I believe this to be a comprehensive compendium
of games where me and kyouko stood in the same stadium
Though I think it was a bad idea to take this measure
because looking back at mini 2238 for a split second spiked my blood pressure

Roles and results of the games are mine as this is from my notepad

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I feel like Gamma, and others in this game (off the top of my head Black, Naerys, DE70, Thomith, and maybe davesaz and Hu Tao) should all know that 'apathy' toward Gamma is my standard play. I wouldn't call it apathy so much as deference? I have an easier time sorting her from the sides.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And as Katsuki and I won't be here for deadline I dont see DE70 happening.

VOTE: Naerys

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ok but your solvable behavior, for me, is when you get emotional over something. I don't want to induce that intentionally over a game

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ok but your solvable behavior, for me, is when you get emotional over something. I don't want to induce that intentionally over a game

Can you elaborate on this? I've seen Gamma get emotional as scum and I've also seen her act really nonchalant as scum. I think you're probably better at reading her than I am so I'm curious what you think

The easiest way to explain is that Gamma as town is at 100% cause to reaction ratio. As scum she either overdoes it or isnt fully in it and is more at either 90% or 110% ratio. Maybe even 95/105. The difference is small and hard to quantify. I dont know how I know when I know, I just do. It feels fruitless to try to explain how it works

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And it's also worth noting I've found that due to.my frequent confbiasing I have better success letting Gamma alone for a while so when I do move to read her my read is not prejudiced.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I feel my accuracy on her is worse when I interact with her compared to when I just read an ISO after it gets big enough

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't think it's likely that all 3 scum were on the Naerys wagon

Which means there's at least one scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

Yeah that would be unlikely
VOTE: Dragon

[ssbm_Kyouko]

votecount

Votecount 1-FINAL

With 12 alive, it took 7 to hammer.

Naerys (7 =

EXECUTED

):

camelCasedSnivy, KittyTacky, Black, davesaz, ssbm_Kyouko, Katsuki, Hu Tao

ssbm_Kyouko (1):

Gamma Emerald

camelCasedSnivy (1)

: Thomith

Katsuki (1):

Naerys

KittyTacky (1):

JacksonVirgo

davesaz (1):

DragonEater70

notes

• The deadline is due in (expired on 2024-01-07 07:46:06).
  
• You can find the combined mod ISO here
  
• ssbm_Kyouko is V/LA on weekends.
  
• Thomith is V/LA this weekend.

leave the poor dude alone

Vote Naerys

For context, "the poor dude" here is Thomith who Naerys and DE are pushing as scum for seeing Katsuki's claim as "obviously" a joke. This is also cCS' first post and the vote stays here the whole day - it's a quick ISO read - I do think it's a little strange from reading his ISO that his vote stayed on Naerys all day and never moved to DE because it seems like he did scumread DE. This could be a product of reading him in ISO though, missing context on how Naerys and cCS' other FoSes/SRs were playing. I do think there was opportunity yesterDay for him to have voted DE but he never did. Looking at it a little longer I don't like the progression below, cCS has been pushing/shading Dragon and Naerys most if not all of the Day, states he has no idea on GE or me, and then in 933 he says Gamma's probably not going to get anywhere, yet minutes later in 942 he'd join Thomith in sheeping Gamma on me - Gamma and me who he supposedly "has no idea on". I feel like cCS spent most of his day posturing to vote DE while his vote never moved off Naerys despite there being ample opportunity.

Spoiler: cCS progression

people i have absolutely no clue on: {ssbm_Kyuoko, KittyTacky, Gamma Emerald, Hu Tao}
and people i would gladly vote are just {Naerys, davesaz, camelCasedSnivy}

also i was going fuck yeah on the naerys wagon and then the bland thomith wagon comes along. I'm not as opposed to it this time around but we can do better (and i probably still wont vote thomith)

also how are people getting town vibes from dragoneater?? seriously???

VOTE: kyouko
While I think Dragon is a fine place to go,
I want to vote somewhere less covered, that being kyouko
honestly kyouko fits the bill of the scum I voted in the past rhyming game
since I regard both slot's content involving me as lame

we do have 2 days left

don't think you are going to get anywhere really

I feel lost so ima sheep a town read

VOTE: CCS

which townread was it? if it was black you could join us now

*and if its gamma emerald ill sheep you on ssbm_kyouko

Thats basically scum confession
VOTE: Katsuki

...I'm pretty sure that was a joke. Scum response.

VOTE: Naerys

Kitty, like cCS, is in the camp that Naerys opportunistically pushed an RVS joke. And Kitty, like cCS, voted early and did not move... but Kitty's ISO is pretty bad looking. I'm seeing repetition of the same point against Naerys (that being that her reaction to the Katsuki claim was scummy), with a bit of self-meta and non-game-related talk sprinkled in. The first time I get a flash of towniness is here in 654 where Kitty has what looks like a reasonable read, even if it is something of a sheep of mine (and maybe that's why I liked it ). But in the first post below, a few hundred posts later, "I'm staying on Naerys because I have no other reads." My brother in christ you do have a read on Dragon and you're literally responding to him so I don't see how you forget that even if you aren't the most involved in the game. I feel like Kitty super coasted D1 and the one glimpse I got of town!Kitty he squandered away, and I missed it as it happened. This is worse than Snivy by a mile imo. I'm looking for scum on the wagon as I go through these votes and I feel I need to look no further after these two

Spoiler: Kitty ISO

Has anybody played with Dragon before?

Yes but (and I mean no offense) they seem a bit like a generic player... it's not that I can't read them, I just have no idea about the meta.

The hell does that mean? Like not offense-wise, but there's literally no player on this site whose playstyle I cannot characterize as idiosyncratic in some way.

Also I've accidentally become Not_Mafia and will insta hammer any wagon that gets E-1.

What I mean is that I struggle to describe how you play. Maybe it's a skill issue but idk where to read from here until there's a flip.

I'm staying on Naerys because I have no other leads.

people i have absolutely no clue on: {ssbm_Kyuoko, KittyTacky, Gamma Emerald, Hu Tao}
and people i would gladly vote are just {Naerys, davesaz, camelCasedSnivy}

Concrete read:

I think saying "haha I'd vote myself" is very performative. It's a very forced way of saying "look I'm town I don't care if people vote me!"

Naerys and DE70 are where they are on the list because I feel like they're just acting fucking weird, so I dont really know how to read that.

Naerys is indeed very erratic this game but DE70 weird how? Maybe I'm getting that thing where I'm blind to a specific player's style.

Dunno I think DE is town.

I think when it comes to the day ending wagon
I’m fine if it’s either Snivy or Dragon

Snivy fine. I'm mostly sheeping people's reads of that slot. But I just don't see Dragon being particularly scummy here.

VOTE: Naerys

I think I want to give my Jackson read more time to develop, and I would rather do this over CCS

I don't like how Naerys tried to flirt with the idea of joining the CCS wagon after it gained momentum. Her excuse for not actually placing a vote there was because it seemed like other people didn't want to end the day yet, which could be a legit reason, but I'm reading it as her being self-conscious about placing a tail-end vote on a mislim

I think the whole "yeet me pls" is theatre to make us think she's fine with being faded so we don't actually fade there. She says she has a plan but I'm not really buying it

Plus she already claimed VT so if we just push this through then we don't have to risk anyone else claiming

So looks like chronologically Black is the first "non-stale" vote to start the Naerys wagon. Generally speaking I think mislims especially on D1 are town-led with scum attaching themselves to the wagons later on, so this being the first non-stale vote I feel it has the most likelihood of being that town leading the D1 wagon. I feel like giving JV time is something town!Black would do, but I only know town!Black so I've been hesitant to believe thoughts like this, let alone voice them, because I've heard about her scum record. The last 2 lines are both a little bit "excuse-ey" if you want to look at them in that way, but they feel very natural to me. I think scum generally would prefer to try get cCS run up to claim and just not mention that it's safe to lim already-claimed-VT Naerys. I'm not concerned about this vote.

VOTE: Naerys
Time is too short to do much thumb twiddling. We need to make some kind of progress at generating higher wagon numbers so at least that will be available.

Time is too short is what I was thinking as well, knowing I wasn't going to be around much close to deadline. I'm going to have to look into his ISO to be thorough about this though. Skimming it now I don't really see anything nefarious in the progression. Dave engages with a few people and is mostly focused on solving Gamma's rhymes, and though I don't like 447 as a tactic it's probably +town. In 502 it seems like Dave has finished his sort of Gamma and is willing to work with her on the cCS wagon. I like 517 as well, it's so raw and I don't think scum!dave moves forward with posting it without second-guessing himself and providing a more reasoned response. Not concerned with how Dave arrives on Naerys.

And as Katsuki and I won't be here for deadline I dont see DE70 happening.

VOTE: Naerys

The relevance for those reading these votes in ISO here is that Katsuki and I were the main proponents of a DE lim and we both weren't going to be around for much longer as the deadline was about 48 hours out iirc.

Won't be around later, I'm fine with doing this, L-1 by my count.

VOTE: NAERYS

I think objectively speaking the vote itself would come from town!Katsuki or scum!Katsuki here, but I TR Katsuki and don't find anything suspicious about it.

VOTE: Naerys

Goodnight all.

Not sure about this. I feel like I've seen Hu Tao hammer like this as town many times, come to think of it I'm not sure I've played with scum!HT. I think their playstyle is scummy so I might have assumed I've played with scum!HT before I'm not sure if this is something that she does as scum, I'd have to read her scumgames to check. I imagine it would be easy enough to fake. I have to pee really bad I'll finish Hu Tao's ISO later. I vaguely remember TRing them early on

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I did ISO kitty during the night before I got bored, and while I do think tonally they're scummy I do think I've been treating them unfairly

Kitty was town from post 1

Who do you think is scum? I want to sheep you

I'm leaning Dragon at the moment but unsure. I'll need to look over everything again. I'm confused with kyouko being so adamant that Dragon is scum

I think his self-voting was meant to discourage people from voting him, but he was saying he does it because he likes being wagoned so he can find the scum on his wagon. I don't think the way he went about "getting wagoned" (by voting himself) really ever works to catch scum. Doing it once was like whatever,

maybe

he's like emulating Flavor Leaf is what I was suspecting at the time, but the second time, and when accompanied with his explanation, it just didn't add up.

To top it off I'm now seeing cCS and Kitty as plausible scum on the Naerys wagon and they both have partner equity with DE

[ssbm_Kyouko]

{DE, cCS/Kitty, ccs/Kitty/???}

[ssbm_Kyouko]

camelCase strikes again - just fixed a bug the other day due to missing the camelCase on a variable name :/

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay. I'm not going to try and tip toe around this anymore.

Kyouko do you have a guilty on dragon or no?

No, I wouldn't have investigated Dragon and I'm usually the type to just come out with it if I have a guilty rather than play the "I really think it's them" game

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I was on Dragon all day yesterDay and only moved for the deadline so I wanted to keep going with that, I didn't realize that people thought I had a guilty

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I was on Dragon all day yesterDay and only moved for the deadline so I wanted to keep going with that, I didn't realize that people thought I had a guilty

What do you think of gamma scumreading me for what I did? Considering you didn't have a guilty.

I'm pretty sure that Gamma really did think I have a guilty given the way she played that. And I don't think Gamma is the type to see that if she's scum with Dragon. Like as scum, the reality of all the alignments are set in stone in her mind and it doesn't occur to her to pretend I have a guilty on town!Dragon. I do think she thought you were trying to disrupt what she thought was a guilty so I think it makes sense that she'd scumread you for it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

lots of posts coming in

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I was going to try to roleswap with Kyouko if another person left the Dragon wagon

Hu Tao trying to stall for time was absolutely heinous

This is the kind of "100%" reaction I'm talking about btw - notably "absolutely heinous". The words like, ring out when she means them

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I still think you wanting to “discuss” felt very disingenuous.

Am I wrong? You are not really a person who likes to go into major detail from what I know. As such you wanting “more time to discuss” doesn’t really feel like it’s your style. My theory is you’re covering for Dragon here so he can slip away, I am keenly aware that giving scum more time is a bad idea.

I'm a changed woman. I've seen that me not explaining things in detail has caused issues. So I am trying to improve on that.

Do you prefer she btw? I used to use she for you (and elements) before I noticed it was they/she not she/they so I swapped over to they since it's listed first

[ssbm_Kyouko]

{

Gamma

, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I want to fade in this group

In light of recent events

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I am keenly aware that giving scum more time is a bad idea.

"things I don't say when I scumread Gamma"

To be clear Gamma's town here but reading this from her has a certain irony fmpov

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I was on Dragon all day yesterDay and only moved for the deadline so I wanted to keep going with that, I didn't realize that people thought I had a guilty

What do you think of gamma scumreading me for what I did? Considering you didn't have a guilty.

I'm pretty sure that Gamma really did think I have a guilty given the way she played that. And I don't think Gamma is the type to see that if she's scum with Dragon. Like as scum, the reality of all the alignments are set in stone in her mind and it doesn't occur to her to pretend I have a guilty on town!Dragon. I do think she thought you were trying to disrupt what she thought was a guilty so I think it makes sense that she'd scumread you for it

I agree with this too. Could be both of them scum together

Possible, but never scum!Gamma + town!Dragon so even if you don't have faith in my Gamma read (people really should have more faith in my Gamma reads) you'd always lim Dragon first

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: kyouko
While I think Dragon is a fine place to go,
I want to vote somewhere less covered, that being kyouko
honestly kyouko fits the bill of the scum I voted in the past rhyming game
since I regard both slot's content involving me as lame

I don't think it's likely that all 3 scum were on the Naerys wagon

Which means there's at least one scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

Alternatively: that wagon was god-awful and we should kill on it.
VOTE: Camel
Still don’t trust you.

VOTE: Dragon

This progression is awful

Why are you voting outside of the wagon if you think we should fade on it? Wouldn't it make more sense for you to vote kyouko here?

Agreed

VOTE: Gamma

If you're town here Gamma is never scum - what do you think of Thomith and JV?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Did the rhyming thing impact your ability to read Gamma at all Kyouko?
If not, I choose to put full faith in Kyouko's ability to soulread Gamma

my read was 100% formed in the past like 20-30 minutes as the "guilty" situation played out, and that would have been the case even if Gamma had not been rhyming all of D1.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I want to fade in this group

Why has your read on me changed?
Still the Jackson thing from yesterday?

These 4 were off the Naerys wagon and I don't think the entire scum team was on that wagon

Aside from that though I'm having a similar problem that I had in Micro Normal 1094. Some of your posts just gut ping me the wrong way

Issue with your pool is, unless one or less scum was on Naerys, it is still statistically better to look at those on the wagon.

at least one out of 4 off wagon: 1, 2 or 3 out of 4, average 2/4 (50%), or 2/3 (66.7%) if you're a townie in that group of 4
On-wagon would be 0-2, on average 1/7 (14.3%) , or 1/6 (16.7%) if you're a townie on the wagon

Why would it be statistically better to look on the wagon here?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There's either two scum in {Kitty, CCS, dave, kyouko, Kat, Hu} or two scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I like my chances with the second group

Oh I think this is why Gamma likes the first group because 2/6 versus 1/4, I just didn't expect her (or most people) to consider the latter a 1/4 when discussing statstics. Most people conveniently overlook that their alignment is only guaranteed to themself and town!Gamma would see this as 2/6 vs 1/3 which are equal

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ok but your solvable behavior, for me, is when you get emotional over something. I don't want to induce that intentionally over a game

Can you elaborate on this? I've seen Gamma get emotional as scum and I've also seen her act really nonchalant as scum. I think you're probably better at reading her than I am so I'm curious what you think

The easiest way to explain is that Gamma as town is at 100% cause to reaction ratio. As scum she either overdoes it or isnt fully in it and is more at either 90% or 110% ratio. Maybe even 95/105. The difference is small and hard to quantify. I dont know how I know when I know, I just do. It feels fruitless to try to explain how it works

And it's also worth noting I've found that due to.my frequent confbiasing I have better success letting Gamma alone for a while so when I do move to read her my read is not prejudiced.

Kyouko I thought you didn't have a strong Gamma read yet? Are you saying you townread her now?

Yes, she just now had her righteous moment at 100% commitment when she called Hu Tao heinous

[ssbm_Kyouko]

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I want to fade in this group

Why has your read on me changed?
Still the Jackson thing from yesterday?

These 4 were off the Naerys wagon and I don't think the entire scum team was on that wagon

Aside from that though I'm having a similar problem that I had in Micro Normal 1094. Some of your posts just gut ping me the wrong way

Issue with your pool is, unless one or less scum was on Naerys, it is still statistically better to look at those on the wagon.

at least one out of 4 off wagon: 1, 2 or 3 out of 4, average 2/4 (50%), or 2/3 (66.7%) if you're a townie in that group of 4
On-wagon would be 0-2, on average 1/7 (14.3%) , or 1/6 (16.7%) if you're a townie on the wagon

Why would it be statistically better to look on the wagon here?

I'm very confused why you are assuming at least one scum off wagon but not at least one scum on wagon? It feels like fabricated math.

I assume at least one off because Black's point that "not all 3 scum are on Naerys" makes sense, which means

at most 2

are on Naerys - the numbers come from there. I guess you could take the opposite stance too, not really thinking about that as I'm trying to read all these posts coming in and I see a statement that just looks wrong

[ssbm_Kyouko]

the opposite stance being that not all 3 scum are off Naerys, so you could say, for both cases, there are either 1 or 2 scum in each split, average 1.5:

1.5/4 = 3/8 = 37.5%
1.5/7 = 21.4%

Looking on wagon is still statistically worse, but yes my numbers were unfair

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: kyouko
While I think Dragon is a fine place to go,
I want to vote somewhere less covered, that being kyouko
honestly kyouko fits the bill of the scum I voted in the past rhyming game
since I regard both slot's content involving me as lame

I don't think it's likely that all 3 scum were on the Naerys wagon

Which means there's at least one scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

Alternatively: that wagon was god-awful and we should kill on it.
VOTE: Camel
Still don’t trust you.

VOTE: Dragon

This progression is awful

Why are you voting outside of the wagon if you think we should fade on it? Wouldn't it make more sense for you to vote kyouko here?

Agreed

VOTE: Gamma

If you're town here Gamma is never scum - what do you think of Thomith and JV?

Explain?

Gamma doesn't assume I have a guilty if she knows you're town, which she would know if she were scum and you were town. Therefore if you are town, she can't be scum. I'm not as sure on this as I am on how I read Gamma but I'm pretty sure this is the way she would think

[ssbm_Kyouko]

how am I just constantly 50 posts behind

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because of how fast the DE70 wagon grew, I do also think there's at least 1 scum in [ssbm_Kyouko, Gamma Emerald, JacksonVirgo, Katsuki, Black, Hu Tao (not on the wagon, but mentioned multiple times they wanted to be.)]

2 of us wanted to lim DE yesterDay and 2 of us thought I had a guilty, so I'm not sure this makes sense. I don't think the speed is unusual given the circumstances

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gamma doesn't assume I have a guilty if she knows you're town, which she would know if she were scum and you were town. Therefore if you are town, she can't be scum. I'm not as sure on this as I am on how I read Gamma but I'm pretty sure this is the way she would think

I don't think this is true. Gamma would still have to play it out like a townie would, and she was adamant about wanting to quickfade and end the day. If Dragon flipped town then she could just use the excuse that she thought you had a guilty. I think this could come from either town!Gamma or scum!Gamma

@Gamma am I being too presumptuous about how you think here? Am I wrong?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't like kyouko trying to get Dragon away from the Gamma wagon, especially considering she thinks Dragon is scum?

Gamma/kyouko is a possible pair

going to skip over anything else like this til Gamma confirms/denies my assumption

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I could see Gamma/Kyo. I felt it was really weird Kyo didn't have a read on Gamma yesterday. I do feel something doesn't fully add up though woth how hard Kyo is TRing Gamma - I'm not sure wolf!Kyo is actually likely to TR a partner that heavily.

Because of the Rhyming D1 I do see why it may have been harder.

Like nobody is listening to how the read works - if Gamma makes a certain kind of post or string of posts, I can read *just that* and know off of 1-5 posts if she's town or scum. She makes a post/posts like this in, if I had to guess, maybe 70% of her games if not more. I'm a confbias-prone player. I've found that if I pay too much attention to her, I can get confbiased into scum- or town-reading Gamma before she makes a post like this and it clouds my ability to identify and assess the post.

This is "the post"

I was going to try to roleswap with Kyouko if another person left the Dragon wagon
Hu Tao trying to stall for time was absolutely heinous

Reading this - specifically "absolutely heinous" - this is a post I can identify as the key to Gamma's alignment. Looking back then, at the context of what Hu Tao did to elicit this reaction, I can see that it makes perfect sense that Gamma reacted this way, and the post doesn't sound forced. Gamma is reacting at 100%. Not 90%, not 110%. Gamma is town here and I'd stake the game on it.

I literally don't care what the rest of her ISO before that says for the purposes of reading her. I'll care if I think she's going on the wrong track now that I know she's town, but beyond that it doesn't matter. She's locked.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I gotta go get my kid, still not caught up

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gamma doesn't assume I have a guilty if she knows you're town, which she would know if she were scum and you were town. Therefore if you are town, she can't be scum. I'm not as sure on this as I am on how I read Gamma but I'm pretty sure this is the way she would think

I don't think this is true. Gamma would still have to play it out like a townie would, and she was adamant about wanting to quickfade and end the day. If Dragon flipped town then she could just use the excuse that she thought you had a guilty. I think this could come from either town!Gamma or scum!Gamma

@Gamma am I being too presumptuous about how you think here? Am I wrong?

Here’s my idea. I would know you didn’t have a guilty if I’m scum and Dragon is town. But there’s the possibility that I can pretend to think that you had one. Thus if someone wants to argue me!scum and Dragon!town, their burden of proof is to show that thought process from me.

Alright, I thought you were more black and white when you rolled scum - I'll cede anything related to Gamma being unable to pretend I had a guilty - "heinous" post was town!Gamma though, of that I'm sure

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because of how fast the DE70 wagon grew, I do also think there's at least 1 scum in [ssbm_Kyouko, Gamma Emerald, JacksonVirgo, Katsuki, Black, Hu Tao (not on the wagon, but mentioned multiple times they wanted to be.)]

2 of us wanted to lim DE yesterDay and 2 of us thought I had a guilty, so I'm not sure this makes sense. I don't think the speed is unusual given the circumstances

If I didn't mention this in that post I meant to, but people thinking there was a guilty potentially skews this assumption.

Yeah I saw afterward, being so far behind sets a lot off

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I was going to try to roleswap with Kyouko if another person left the Dragon wagon

Hu Tao trying to stall for time was absolutely heinous

This is the kind of "100%" reaction I'm talking about btw - notably "absolutely heinous". The words like, ring out when she means them

So what do the 90-110% reactions look like? Like

"absolutely heinos"

and

"absolutely heinouss

"?

I can pull a 90% reaction for you from Owner's Market Blitz or you can find it in my ego, then check Gamma's ISO in that game and search for "bastard" - on my phone atm

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Not sure I've caught her in games I was in with 110% reactions but I feel like I saw them during my metadive

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gamma doesn't assume I have a guilty if she knows you're town, which she would know if she were scum and you were town. Therefore if you are town, she can't be scum. I'm not as sure on this as I am on how I read Gamma but I'm pretty sure this is the way she would think

I think this reasoning is wrong. If Dragon and Gamma are both scum, scum!Gamma would certainly see it as a guilty, and probably not say anything about it initially, and then perhaps mention it if pressed on the reaction to Hu Tao -- because if scum then Gamma needs to line up some players to have legit reasons to scumread.

I don't think this is the case, because I also see the "heinous" thing as a likely town!Gamma tell.

pedit: things are getting lively, 5 more posts while I wrote that

Re: the reasoning being wrong - Gamma has said herself that I was wrong about that yeah, and I've since walked it back. I had (incorrectly) thought that she was more black and white as scum and would have difficulty seeing the possibility that I have a guilty on town!Dragon through a scum-tinted lens where she knows Dragon's alignment.

I was continuing to read to see if you got to the point where I did that, but I'm at the post below:

But something about that vote feels off, and I can't place it

And I'm out of time, so marking this for next time

[ssbm_Kyouko]

sure

Vote: Dannflor

mmhmm

Spoiler: image to add context to this noise

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I still wanna know what is the deal with the obsession over being off-wagon, I asked before and nobody answered. I don't understand it9

I feel like it's been mentioned a couple of times at least - doesn't seem like there would be 3 scum on Naerys, therefore 1 or 2 should be off wagon

[ssbm_Kyouko]

To clarify, I'm not town-reading you by any means I just feel I have to re-center myself and see where I stand

Then I'm wrong about you being tunnelled.

Just more curious than anything but what would you consider the difference between a tunnel and just pushing somebody hard

The difference imo is hard pushing you are willing to see other opinions, or admit you are wrong if other information becomes available, whereas if you are tunnelled, you either dont have many hard reasons for suspecting someone, but do anyway (this was why I said I think I could be tunnelled on Hu Tao), or are not likely to see anything townie a player is doing as enough to get you to stop pushing them.

This (starting from around the tunnel/semantics tall) was weird to read from both of you - felt like you were talking

at

each other more than to each other

[ssbm_Kyouko]

pretty sure 778 is town

kt is more likely town than scum but I wouldn't like be surprised if he was scum

Wait I think I have that reversed

I think KT is town here and I'm uncertain if kyouko is

actually idk if either of them are town

So what are you saying? Did you think 778 was KT's post? I'm not sure how you get KT and I confused. Do you SR us, or just "don't TR" us?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

How well do you know Danns play Black?
Is there a world where he's catering to you so you TR him?

Do you think this is happening? Or did you - I'm pretty far behind today

[ssbm_Kyouko]

is there a specific reason people believe all scum weren't all on the naerys lim besides arbitrary grouping

idk if anyone would have that POV. I think there's a good chance at least one of cCS/Kitty are scum on the wagon. Probably to have that POV you'd have to agree with my assessment of both cCS and Kitty, and also think one of the last 4 on the wagon was blending in. Maybe one of cCS/Kitty + 2 of the last 4. I guess it's possible but it doesn't feel very likely to be correct

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't buy that from you. I really think you're scum here

She's just not though and that while dayvig reaction and then "gotcha" of Gamma was just that - a gotcha.

Why do you think she's scum here?

As a side note I'm pretty sure a dayvig would not be something an Inventor under Normal guidelines could make

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hu Tao, your towngame is one of the worst on this site currently. This is dead serious.

Why?

You seem to recognize the holes in it but I don’t see jack shit from you to patch them. You also consistently go down the most idiotic rabbit holes of logic.

I have no idea what you're talking about here. This seems to come out of the blue. What triggered 1751?

Did you miss the last page?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Before that exchange. I thought she was sus around thinking your vote was a guilty

Didn't you also think it was a guilty though? Are there specific posts you find suspicious that differ from your own behavior?

How well do you know Danns play Black?
Is there a world where he's catering to you so you TR him?

Do you think this is happening? Or did you - I'm pretty far behind today

Not necessarily, I just like to know the possibility of this when someone replaces in, then somebodies opinion on the replaced slot changes soon after.

Ok this makes sense. Were you TRing Dragon before the replacement? I don't remember - I thought this was a strange question to be asking one TR about another TR

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Village idiot - Thomith dont trouble yourself over 1802, it's something I should be ISOing you for anyways, just didnt want to do it on my phone this morning

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I feel like I've played with Dann a fair few times over the years (maybe 5 or 6 games if i had to guess), and I also have issues reading him. At least I did in Toriel's patience, which is the only recent experience I have. I do think he's a very strong player as both alignments. I kinda liked the catchup, I just think he's still capable of it as scum if that makes sense.

Just something I've been ruminating over since seeing Black's posts about the same thing.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Village idiot - Thomith dont trouble yourself over 1802, it's something I should be ISOing you for anyways, just didnt want to do it on my phone this morning

It kinda feels like you are floating in the background this game

What do your reads look like, and are you confident in them?

Gamma I'm very confident is town. I have no reason to think yet that she can fool my method of reading her so I'm pretty much treating her as a flipped cop's inno

Katsuki and Hu Tao are my longest-standing TRs and I'm starting to wonder about Hu Tao's motivations lately. I'm still feeling good about Katsuki, though I'm beginning to wonder if we might be off when it comes to Dragon/Dann

Which brings me to Dragon/Dann - I think Dragon's self-voting was meant to discourage his wagon, which alone isn't necessarily scummy, but he was claiming he wanted to be wagoned so he could catch scum. I think that the votes were a performance. I also remember him kinda OMGUSing me for it and I don't think that makes sense for town!Dragon. Since Dann's replacement I've been wondering if maybe I was tunneling on Dragon too hard - I didn't end up getting Dragon limmed so probably not
But Dann I'm just wary of on principle. I'm not sure if I'm convinced he couldn't have the same catch-up as scum, which I say because ignoring Dragon, and taking off Dann's nameplate, I think I'd TR him.

I thought one of Celebloki's posts was clunky - the same post Dann identified as scummy for his own reasons. Personally I just think the repetition of the idea Celebloki was "getting a vote on Hu Tao out of the way" looks unnatural. I have some success with this tell, but it does fail me pretty often too and it just failed me in Toriel's Patience so I'm trying out using it as a stepping stone rather than death tunneling on it immediately. Jackson I'm not so sure, I don't really follow some of his posts due to the punctuation I think. I try rereading them or reading them aloud sometimes and still don't follow it. He seems inordinately focused on you.

You, I'm not really sure what you look like as scum. I think you look similar here to when I've played with you as town, though I haven't had the same kind of 'clicking' with your thoughts that I've had before. There hasn't been that eureka moment so I'd put you at like, townlean probably. I almost forgot you kinda led the Naerys wagon despite being 3rd on it, and I think that fairly often town wagons on D1 that end up going the distance are town-led. Which more often than not makes you likelier to be town here not even considering the rest of your play.

Kitty and cCS I feel both had pretty bad D1s and are both likely Dragon/Dann partners - I made a post going over all the votes on the Naerys wagon a day or two ago and it was pretty long and I think it got drowned out between you and jackson and maybe the "guilty" discussion because nobody really responded to it.

I think that just leaves Dave. I dont condone how dave went about it but I think he was pretty transparently solving Gamma most of D1, but not letting it overtake the rest of the game. His vote on Naerys was fine, I remember it holding up to scrutiny. Townread I'd say.

^okay wrote that on my phone but my thumb was starting to fatigue and twitch so I'm switching over to my PC

Just counted and that

was

everyone - going to link my post that got glazed over earlier for reference, and spoil it for length.

Spoiler: Naerys Wagon

votecount

Votecount 1-FINAL

With 12 alive, it took 7 to hammer.

Naerys (7 =

EXECUTED

):

camelCasedSnivy, KittyTacky, Black, davesaz, ssbm_Kyouko, Katsuki, Hu Tao

ssbm_Kyouko (1):

Gamma Emerald

camelCasedSnivy (1)

: Thomith

Katsuki (1):

Naerys

KittyTacky (1):

JacksonVirgo

davesaz (1):

DragonEater70

notes

• The deadline is due in (expired on 2024-01-07 07:46:06).
  
• You can find the combined mod ISO here
  
• ssbm_Kyouko is V/LA on weekends.
  
• Thomith is V/LA this weekend.

leave the poor dude alone

Vote Naerys

For context, "the poor dude" here is Thomith who Naerys and DE are pushing as scum for seeing Katsuki's claim as "obviously" a joke. This is also cCS' first post and the vote stays here the whole day - it's a quick ISO read - I do think it's a little strange from reading his ISO that his vote stayed on Naerys all day and never moved to DE because it seems like he did scumread DE. This could be a product of reading him in ISO though, missing context on how Naerys and cCS' other FoSes/SRs were playing. I do think there was opportunity yesterDay for him to have voted DE but he never did. Looking at it a little longer I don't like the progression below, cCS has been pushing/shading Dragon and Naerys most if not all of the Day, states he has no idea on GE or me, and then in 933 he says Gamma's probably not going to get anywhere, yet minutes later in 942 he'd join Thomith in sheeping Gamma on me - Gamma and me who he supposedly "has no idea on". I feel like cCS spent most of his day posturing to vote DE while his vote never moved off Naerys despite there being ample opportunity.

Spoiler: cCS progression

people i have absolutely no clue on: {ssbm_Kyuoko, KittyTacky, Gamma Emerald, Hu Tao}
and people i would gladly vote are just {Naerys, davesaz, camelCasedSnivy}

also i was going fuck yeah on the naerys wagon and then the bland thomith wagon comes along. I'm not as opposed to it this time around but we can do better (and i probably still wont vote thomith)

also how are people getting town vibes from dragoneater?? seriously???

VOTE: kyouko
While I think Dragon is a fine place to go,
I want to vote somewhere less covered, that being kyouko
honestly kyouko fits the bill of the scum I voted in the past rhyming game
since I regard both slot's content involving me as lame

we do have 2 days left

don't think you are going to get anywhere really

I feel lost so ima sheep a town read

VOTE: CCS

which townread was it? if it was black you could join us now

*and if its gamma emerald ill sheep you on ssbm_kyouko

Thats basically scum confession
VOTE: Katsuki

...I'm pretty sure that was a joke. Scum response.

VOTE: Naerys

Kitty, like cCS, is in the camp that Naerys opportunistically pushed an RVS joke. And Kitty, like cCS, voted early and did not move... but Kitty's ISO is pretty bad looking. I'm seeing repetition of the same point against Naerys (that being that her reaction to the Katsuki claim was scummy), with a bit of self-meta and non-game-related talk sprinkled in. The first time I get a flash of towniness is here in 654 where Kitty has what looks like a reasonable read, even if it is something of a sheep of mine (and maybe that's why I liked it ). But in the first post below, a few hundred posts later, "I'm staying on Naerys because I have no other reads." My brother in christ you do have a read on Dragon and you're literally responding to him so I don't see how you forget that even if you aren't the most involved in the game. I feel like Kitty super coasted D1 and the one glimpse I got of town!Kitty he squandered away, and I missed it as it happened. This is worse than Snivy by a mile imo. I'm looking for scum on the wagon as I go through these votes and I feel I need to look no further after these two

Spoiler: Kitty ISO

Has anybody played with Dragon before?

Yes but (and I mean no offense) they seem a bit like a generic player... it's not that I can't read them, I just have no idea about the meta.

The hell does that mean? Like not offense-wise, but there's literally no player on this site whose playstyle I cannot characterize as idiosyncratic in some way.

Also I've accidentally become Not_Mafia and will insta hammer any wagon that gets E-1.

What I mean is that I struggle to describe how you play. Maybe it's a skill issue but idk where to read from here until there's a flip.

I'm staying on Naerys because I have no other leads.

people i have absolutely no clue on: {ssbm_Kyuoko, KittyTacky, Gamma Emerald, Hu Tao}
and people i would gladly vote are just {Naerys, davesaz, camelCasedSnivy}

Concrete read:

I think saying "haha I'd vote myself" is very performative. It's a very forced way of saying "look I'm town I don't care if people vote me!"

Naerys and DE70 are where they are on the list because I feel like they're just acting fucking weird, so I dont really know how to read that.

Naerys is indeed very erratic this game but DE70 weird how? Maybe I'm getting that thing where I'm blind to a specific player's style.

Dunno I think DE is town.

I think when it comes to the day ending wagon
I’m fine if it’s either Snivy or Dragon

Snivy fine. I'm mostly sheeping people's reads of that slot. But I just don't see Dragon being particularly scummy here.

VOTE: Naerys

I think I want to give my Jackson read more time to develop, and I would rather do this over CCS

I don't like how Naerys tried to flirt with the idea of joining the CCS wagon after it gained momentum. Her excuse for not actually placing a vote there was because it seemed like other people didn't want to end the day yet, which could be a legit reason, but I'm reading it as her being self-conscious about placing a tail-end vote on a mislim

I think the whole "yeet me pls" is theatre to make us think she's fine with being faded so we don't actually fade there. She says she has a plan but I'm not really buying it

Plus she already claimed VT so if we just push this through then we don't have to risk anyone else claiming

So looks like chronologically Black is the first "non-stale" vote to start the Naerys wagon. Generally speaking I think mislims especially on D1 are town-led with scum attaching themselves to the wagons later on, so this being the first non-stale vote I feel it has the most likelihood of being that town leading the D1 wagon. I feel like giving JV time is something town!Black would do, but I only know town!Black so I've been hesitant to believe thoughts like this, let alone voice them, because I've heard about her scum record. The last 2 lines are both a little bit "excuse-ey" if you want to look at them in that way, but they feel very natural to me. I think scum generally would prefer to try get cCS run up to claim and just not mention that it's safe to lim already-claimed-VT Naerys. I'm not concerned about this vote.

VOTE: Naerys
Time is too short to do much thumb twiddling. We need to make some kind of progress at generating higher wagon numbers so at least that will be available.

Time is too short is what I was thinking as well, knowing I wasn't going to be around much close to deadline. I'm going to have to look into his ISO to be thorough about this though. Skimming it now I don't really see anything nefarious in the progression. Dave engages with a few people and is mostly focused on solving Gamma's rhymes, and though I don't like 447 as a tactic it's probably +town. In 502 it seems like Dave has finished his sort of Gamma and is willing to work with her on the cCS wagon. I like 517 as well, it's so raw and I don't think scum!dave moves forward with posting it without second-guessing himself and providing a more reasoned response. Not concerned with how Dave arrives on Naerys.

And as Katsuki and I won't be here for deadline I dont see DE70 happening.

VOTE: Naerys

The relevance for those reading these votes in ISO here is that Katsuki and I were the main proponents of a DE lim and we both weren't going to be around for much longer as the deadline was about 48 hours out iirc.

Won't be around later, I'm fine with doing this, L-1 by my count.

VOTE: NAERYS

I think objectively speaking the vote itself would come from town!Katsuki or scum!Katsuki here, but I TR Katsuki and don't find anything suspicious about it.

VOTE: Naerys

Goodnight all.

Not sure about this. I feel like I've seen Hu Tao hammer like this as town many times, come to think of it I'm not sure I've played with scum!HT. I think their playstyle is scummy so I might have assumed I've played with scum!HT before I'm not sure if this is something that she does as scum, I'd have to read her scumgames to check. I imagine it would be easy enough to fake. I have to pee really bad I'll finish Hu Tao's ISO later. I vaguely remember TRing them early on

Actually I must have counted wrong as Thomith isn't here. I've got to look at Thomith closer - nothing really comes to mind except that I was pinged when he asked you about Dann playing around you when he TRed both you and Dann, and that he's 1 of the 4 off-wagon group that I think is likely to contain scum.

Overall this makes the list something like this:
{Gamma} - locktown
{Katsuki} - TR
{davesaz} - not as TRed as above but more than the TLs below
{Hu Tao (fluctuating, was TR but it's getting tenuous), Black (tentative, TR is on the rise)} - TL
--
{Thomith, JV} - nullscum, probably at least one scum amongst these 2 + Dragon due to the 4 off Gamma wagon
{cCS, Kitty} - SL, one or both of these are scum on the Naerys wagon, both make sense as Dragon partners iirc
{Dragon} - SR
Dannflor doesn't really have a good place because Dannflor feels like a complete turnaround from Dragon who I think was clearly scum, so I'm leaving Dragon's name on here. I feel like I've been burned by ignoring a replacement's scummy behavior more often than I've been rewarded by ignoring it. If I knew how to read Dann better and he wasn't as good as he is I'd be more willing to reconsider this already

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So what are you saying? Did you think 778 was KT's post? I'm not sure how you get KT and I confused. Do you SR us, or just "don't TR" us?
She/Her - limited acces

no I didn't mix you up, I was just focusing on the two of you because I hadn't yet and ended up flipping my initial opinion

what your current thoughts are on the Kitty slot? I feel like you keep throwing them out there as possible scum but you have not seemed to really want to hard push there and that's the main thing that threw up alarm bells for me

1158 covers that - the one that kinda got skipped when the game blew up. I just realized there have been 700 posts in 2 days

I think looking for the scum on the wagon right now is not the move - there were 4 off-wagon - I hard TR Gamma so finding 1-2 scum amongst 3 is vastly preferable to me than finding 1-2 scum amongst 6 where I could easily be wrong about some of the TRs I have on the wagon

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't really follow some of his posts due to the punctuation I think

Then ask me to clarify?

I'm kinda with Gamma on it - it seems like a back and forth with you and Black and I'm not really interested in it. From what I do gather it's mostly the two of you being paranoid at each other or bouncing around ideas that don't seem to lead to anything as far as I can tell

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Before that exchange. I thought she was sus around thinking your vote was a guilty

Didn't you also think it was a guilty though? Are there specific posts you find suspicious that differ from your own behavior?

How well do you know Danns play Black?
Is there a world where he's catering to you so you TR him?

Do you think this is happening? Or did you - I'm pretty far behind today

Not necessarily, I just like to know the possibility of this when someone replaces in, then somebodies opinion on the replaced slot changes soon after.

Ok this makes sense. Were you TRing Dragon before the replacement? I don't remember - I thought this was a strange question to be asking one TR about another TR

I was TRing Dragon.
I'm confused as to why you think it's weird to question one TR about another TR so I'm not too sure how to explain my reasoning here?

specifically because the implication of the question is that Dragon's replacement is doing something insidious - it feels like it would sow doubt and I don't quite understand why you'd want to do that with 2 of your TRs. I understand wanting to bridge the gap between 2 TRs but that's not what your question felt like it aimed to do

[ssbm_Kyouko]

at risk of

Gamma I'm very confident is town. I have no reason to think yet that she can fool my method of reading her so I'm pretty much treating her as a flipped cop's inno

did you share this method anywhere or is this a super secret pocket read

No, I've shared it ITT many times, I'm not secretive about it because it's the kind of tell that is hard for her to play around. Like if she could play around it by faking "tone" for lack of a better one-word explanation, it wouldn't work, but it does work

[ssbm_Kyouko]

do you have an opinion on her reaction to me / hu tao pushing her a few pages ago

I'm not surprised you were pushing her because I think Dragon was scum and you're probably doing a good job at hiding it. I am wondering about Hu Tao's push though. As for her reaction, no not really, if I'm being honest there's no reaction she could realistically have that would concern me because I'm confident she's town here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Let me try and explain it better.
It seemed Black SR'ed the DannDragon slot.
Dann replaces in, and Black TRs the slot due to Dann's play.
This is fine, but slots are still scummy even if someone replaces out, and the speed of the switch from SR to TR made me worry about a pocket, if I am wrong about Black or Dann.
I know Black probably knows this, she is a very good player, but I pointed it out just to make sure it was at least on her mind, again more for down the line than right now.

Does that make more sense?

I think the last post made decent sense but this does make more sense yes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It's not that I don't think it's unlikely, I just see a world where the narrative where all 3 scum couldn't have been on the wagon could be a narrative potentially spread by scum, simply because of how it was almost taken as a fact, with only really you giving anything more to the argument (by you saying you TR enough of the people on-wagon to suspect not all scum were there).

No one said all three scum

can't

be on the wagon though. And iirc is was just me, kyouko, and Gamma saying that we didn't think it was likely? I could be misremembering here and my lunch break is over in 1 minutes so I can't really go look

That sounds right, I was and still am surprised the concept is met with as much resistance as it has been. It feels like very common sense to me. Like yeah, scum

could

have all 3 been on Naerys' wagon, but how often does that really happen? I know we all like to think that the big bad wolf team is ganging together to mislim us but in practice that almost never happens. I think Dann's example is the first time I've ever seen a 3p team all on a D1/D2 wagon. Teams of 2 sometimes band together in micros, but all 3 in a mini seems very very unlikely

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think Black's positioning around Thomith looks opportunistic here. She's been back-and-forth on him from the start of the game, most recently having him as one of the most likely scum off of the Naerys wagon. Now that Dann and Thomith are questioning that assumption she's pivoting off of it and looks to use her original idea to shift the blame onto me I think.

I still think at least one scum is amongst Thomith, JV, Dann, but the latest move by Black has me doubting her.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But Dann I'm just wary of on principle. I'm not sure if I'm convinced he couldn't have the same catch-up as scum, which I say because ignoring Dragon, and taking off Dann's nameplate, I think I'd TR him.

I feel like I would lean Dann town in isolation but he’s kinda a player I just hold judgment on until most often I see a solid scumtell, I rarely feel good about Dann!town

Yes I think she put it a little more eloquently than me. Black has voiced similar concerns too, I think anyone who knows of you but doesn't know how to read you well would think the same thing, it's only natural.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Was looking at some ISO's and I want to know if anyone else thinks this progression is sus

I don't think it's likely that all 3 scum were on the Naerys wagon

Which means there's at least one scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

Alternatively: that wagon was god-awful and we should kill on it.

^Here Gamma rejects my idea of looking off-wagon

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I want to fade in this group

Why has your read on me changed?
Still the Jackson thing from yesterday?

These 4 were off the Naerys wagon and I don't think the entire scum team was on that wagon

Aside from that though I'm having a similar problem that I had in Micro Normal 1094. Some of your posts just gut ping me the wrong way

Issue with your pool is, unless one or less scum was on Naerys, it is still statistically better to look at those on the wagon.

^Gamma continues to argue that we should look on-wagon

I only really voted you because I thought there was a guilty. I still want to look at those that voted Naerys most of all.

^Gamma admits she only voted Dragon because she thought there was a guilty on him, and once again confirms that she wants to vote on-wagon

I’m feeling good about Thomith town so I disagree that the latter group has good odds of hitting scum

^Gamma says she doesn't think voting off-wagon has good odds of hitting scum

intent to hammer

I actually feel somewhat better about JV after our exchange, and since I already TR Thomith and know I’m town, that just leaves Dragon/Dannflor as the only person who can be scum off-wagon.

^Gamma suddenly reverses course when she finds an opportunity to hammer. Her reasoning for declaring intent is because she thinks Dragon is the only person who could be scum off-wagon. Despite constantly arguing that we should vote on-wagon, saying it's statistically better, and even telling Dragon she only voted for him originally because of the "guilty", she almost hammers here

Whoever said sorting a smaller pool is easier was right *shrug*

^This is Gamma's reasoning when called out on this behavior. She throws away statistics, odds, her entire belief that we should fade on-wagon, all because she wanted to take the easier road and hammer someone with 5 days remaining in the deadline. I feel like this sequence is more likely to come from scum

There are a couple posts in between the last two quotes above that don't really track re: Gamma's read on Dragon

I do have some concerns with [Dragon's] D1 actions but I was substantially overstating things to try and push the presumed guilty

At this point I'm willing to leave Dannflor alive to let him cook

Can we fade Katsuki instead? I don't think her reads are real

VOTE: Katsuki

You do you, but I want to put [Dragon] to the fire

Gamma's progression here doesn't make sense to me. She admitted earlier that she only voted Dragon because of the "guilty", and here she doubles down and says she has some concerns with Dragon's D1 but she overstated them due to the "guilty". Then out of no where, Dragon/Dann plummets to the bottom of her readslist and she has decided to push that from this point onwards. It doesn't feel natural at all. It feels like opportunistic scum

I'd like other opinions on this

First impression is that I never saw this kind of post-by-post analysis in games we played together where you were town, but I did see it in the first one of your scumgames I looked at earlier

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Open 899 right?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh open 895 - open 899 is another game I'm in

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: town pbpa from our last game

I do think this whole thing means I can only be scum with Shadow

Terrible argument trying to clear herself

Reading Elements is impossible

Dw gang
Black knows what she's doing

Cute discredit trying to undermine my push

I'm not sure about shaddow. I still wouldn't mind going here but my current paranoia is directed at Elements and that makes me think she's spewing shaddow as town

If I'm scum, shadow is town

Yep

Yikes

Sorry for throwing so hard I guess?

Bad AtE

Gob what happened to you not wanting to lim elements on d1?

i dont care who dies day1 frankly

Then why have you not voted shadow?

Trying to get gob on shaddow when your wagons were neck and neck

Who was roleblocked

PR fishing

VOTE: Elements

This post by town!Black pulls posts that support the reasons she SRs Elements. It's very clear cut and succinct. Like she identifies what is wrong with each post instead of repeating what the post says.

Spoiler: this game, more iioa than pbpa

Was looking at some ISO's and I want to know if anyone else thinks this progression is sus

I don't think it's likely that all 3 scum were on the Naerys wagon

Which means there's at least one scum in {Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

Alternatively: that wagon was god-awful and we should kill on it.

^Here Gamma rejects my idea of looking off-wagon

{Gamma, Thomith, Jackson, Dragon}

I want to fade in this group

Why has your read on me changed?
Still the Jackson thing from yesterday?

These 4 were off the Naerys wagon and I don't think the entire scum team was on that wagon

Aside from that though I'm having a similar problem that I had in Micro Normal 1094. Some of your posts just gut ping me the wrong way

Issue with your pool is, unless one or less scum was on Naerys, it is still statistically better to look at those on the wagon.

^Gamma continues to argue that we should look on-wagon

I only really voted you because I thought there was a guilty. I still want to look at those that voted Naerys most of all.

^Gamma admits she only voted Dragon because she thought there was a guilty on him, and once again confirms that she wants to vote on-wagon

I’m feeling good about Thomith town so I disagree that the latter group has good odds of hitting scum

^Gamma says she doesn't think voting off-wagon has good odds of hitting scum

intent to hammer

I actually feel somewhat better about JV after our exchange, and since I already TR Thomith and know I’m town, that just leaves Dragon/Dannflor as the only person who can be scum off-wagon.

^Gamma suddenly reverses course when she finds an opportunity to hammer. Her reasoning for declaring intent is because she thinks Dragon is the only person who could be scum off-wagon. Despite constantly arguing that we should vote on-wagon, saying it's statistically better, and even telling Dragon she only voted for him originally because of the "guilty", she almost hammers here

Whoever said sorting a smaller pool is easier was right *shrug*

^This is Gamma's reasoning when called out on this behavior. She throws away statistics, odds, her entire belief that we should fade on-wagon, all because she wanted to take the easier road and hammer someone with 5 days remaining in the deadline. I feel like this sequence is more likely to come from scum

There are a couple posts in between the last two quotes above that don't really track re: Gamma's read on Dragon

I do have some concerns with [Dragon's] D1 actions but I was substantially overstating things to try and push the presumed guilty

At this point I'm willing to leave Dannflor alive to let him cook

Can we fade Katsuki instead? I don't think her reads are real

VOTE: Katsuki

You do you, but I want to put [Dragon] to the fire

Gamma's progression here doesn't make sense to me. She admitted earlier that she only voted Dragon because of the "guilty", and here she doubles down and says she has some concerns with Dragon's D1 but she overstated them due to the "guilty". Then out of no where, Dragon/Dann plummets to the bottom of her readslist and she has decided to push that from this point onwards. It doesn't feel natural at all. It feels like opportunistic scum

I'd like other opinions on this

In this game Black is walking us through Gamma's posts showing us a path - I think it's more characteristic of town!Black to tell us "Gamma is scum because she flip-flopped a lot around limming on or off the wagon and her reason to vote Dragon changed after she became aware the guilty didn't exist" and not overquote and say "in this post Gamma did X", "now here Gamma is doing the opposite of X", "Back to X" etc. From what I saw Black looks much more wordy as scum, like wants to have longer posts, and this case on Gamma is not only wrong but I think it's characteristic of how scum!Black cases. Like IIOA style - there's a little bit of "analysis" toward the end when she says she thinks this sequence is more likely to come from scum, but it doesn't feel or look the same as it does when she's town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

First impression is that I never saw this kind of post-by-post analysis in games we played together where you were town, but I did see it in the first one of your scumgames I looked at earlier

I literally did it like 3 times in the last game you and I played together

Cute shade though

I could only find one that was even close and I would say it's a big difference from the case for Gamma

[ssbm_Kyouko]

First impression is that I never saw this kind of post-by-post analysis in games we played together where you were town, but I did see it in the first one of your scumgames I looked at earlier

I literally did it like 3 times in the last game you and I played together

Cute shade though

I could only find one that was even close and I would say it's a big difference from the case for Gamma

I was actually referring to Flavorless Hell, specifically my pbp's on Drew, Alianna, and Hu Tao. And yeah they're going to look different because I'm not some robot that posts the same way all the time

Spoiler: Flavorless Hell

I'm having an issue where I feel really paranoid and unsure about this

I don't really think it's Celebloki or Hu Tao

I initially didn't think it could be Drew but now I'm getting gut feelings about things in his ISO. It feels like he's laying low and sowing doubt where he can

Also remember, Dragon could have jailed the NK target as well.

This feels like he could have been paranoid about being Dragon's target. It could also just be town!Drew pointing out possible scenarios, so idk

Anywho to keep things game related.

I really think it is Umlaut as scum.

Definitely could be a deep wolf here though.

I don't really think that Alt would hard defend Gob like that as a buddy, and then just give up. But I still can't shake the feeling that she is.

This Umlaut read and the conviction behind it seems to come out of nowhere. And no explanation feels even worse. It just makes me think Drew was trying to push the misfade along

It just doesn't make a lot of sense for scum to target me over Dragon

Pardon me for not fully believing you would be the NK target, even if Dragon is actually the JK.

My gut is telling me we YOLO this and kick Black outta here.

This gut feeling about me doesn't match the read in his previous post where he said he really didn't think I would hard defend gob. And if his gut was telling him this then I'm not sure why he wouldn't have voted for me? It felt like he was throwing this out to see if anyone would support it

Like Dragon is posting elsewhere on the site but he just forgot about a game in which he's a PR and scum was faded D1? Doesn't seem very likely to me

It might be just as simple as he is scum and is basically giving up.

Then Drew casts some shade on Dragon here after I expressed doubts about him

My issue is that I can see some of these thoughts coming from a town!Drew perspective. But it just doesn't feel like he's doing much other than pushing certain ideas along. He's not really thinking critically about these things, which makes me think he's just happy with anything we do that doesn't involve fading him

I know kyouko and Alianna said they really don't think it's Drew. I'm wondering if I'm just missing something here and I should be looking elsewhere

VOTE: gob

I don't understand what gob is doing but I'm not convinced he isn't just limbait.
Any particular reason to vote him?

A little fence sitty here, and then questioning my vote. +partner equity

Okay fiiiiiiiiiiiine, you can be scum.

VOTE: Doctor Drew

@Altaria - I see what you mean there. I've been looking through gob's completed games for a towngame but it's taken me quite a while to find one.

Man does everyone just blindly follow meta on this site?

I happen to like meta (though I have been burned by it before), but I don't think that's true of everyone on the site and I don't see where the "blind following" is.

Gob seems a bit frustrated here about Alianna considering his meta. He could be legit frustrated that his partner is openly considering it? But I want to say this is probably negative partner equity

Briefly skimmed gob's ISO in DEFCON and it does seem better, though I don't have the context of actually looking at the interactions.

Might give it some time before I vote there though.

+partner equity. Riding the fence

Spoiler: intriguing meta findings that I am not sure how to interpret yet

This is from a scumgame Dragon repped into. Very similar entrance, though not as serious.

VOTE: Xegarus
VOTE: camelCasedSnivy
VOTE: biancospino
VOTE: yessiree
VOTE: RCEnigma
VOTE: Aisa
VOTE: Aureal
VOTE: KittyTacky
VOTE: Celebloki
VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Doctor Drew
VOTE: KatyKimFanClub

Enchant locktown.

VOTE: Xegarus
VOTE: camelCasedSnivy
VOTE: biancospino
VOTE: yessiree
VOTE: RCEnigma
VOTE: Aisa
VOTE: Aureal
VOTE: KittyTacky
VOTE: Celebloki
VOTE: Not_Mafia
VOTE: Doctor Drew
VOTE: KatyKimFanClub

Enchant locktown.

Is this serious?

Oh, I'm actually townreading that post if that's what you mean, but the locktown isn't 100% serious.

And I don't hate Dragon sheeping then in this manor, this is definitely something I would do as town.

.....are you claiming not town?

Huh?

nvm I just realized last time I pushed something like this as a scumslip it was our doctor. So this is probably makes you town if anything.

Pedit: Enchant is this directed at me or Drew?

I'd be willing to vote Umlaut or gob.
I'd consider Drew or Dragon but I kind of want to see more from them.

Elaborate on Umlaut and Drew

Nothing they've done has townpinged me, and a lot of players have townpinged me this game. That's really it.
I have more experience with Drew and I think I might have a tell on him that works in late game, so I'm inclined to want to keep him alive a little longer.

Gob wants Alianna to go deeper into her non-gob read. Trying to throw her off track? Negative partner equity

^
Plus the pings I got from the way Umlaut sheeped ssbm's case.

VOTE: Umlaut

i would be down with an umlaut wagon btw. i think i want to lim within dragon and umlaut today

Still down to vote Umlaut?

Alianna tries to push Umlaut through right around the time gob starts openwolfing. +partner equity

I'm okay with this.

VOTE: gob

E-1 by my count.

Alianna is pretty quiet when gob is doing his whole "Dragon is obvscum but we don't need to fade him" thing, and then shows up to bus. I think this is +partner equity

yep i'm feeling this too

i feel a little worse about aliana as well. i'm pretty sure she said she thought gob was limbait but joined the wagon anyway

VOTE: Hu Tao

I thought he could be limbait, and I do still think that is a possibility, but I've been pretty consistent in that I'm not townreading or defending him for it.

Alianna defending her read here doesn't feel great but I'm not sure she wouldn't do this as a non-partner

I don't think we can safely put Dann in the townblock

@Drew I'm curious what your thoughts are on Alianna, if you're willing to give them

Yes. Post 45 seems forced, they voted me based on the gob vote but I never explained my gob vote. If they were curious about it then they would have just asked me before voting or suspecting me.

I didn't get the impression she voted you for 31, I thought she was voting you for 39 and 41

dragoneater is right. your "why" made me feel like you were concerned about the vote and i didn't like how you accepted "why not" as an answer originally

i'm not sure how this wasn't obvious to you after 55?

also i disagree with the assessment that i would have just asked you about it before putting pressure on you. sometimes people use voting as a way to communicate

Okay, maybe that's my misunderstanding then

This reminds me of another moment in 1094 where Hu tried to push me for bad reasons and then backed off in a real appease-y type way

I think we need a flip. This game seems ro be the same conversation in different ways to me.

This was an awful take and a complete misrep over the state of the game at the time

I'm also starting to get sus of Gob but I'm not sure why.

This looks really bad in hindsight

how am i sheeping umlaut when i expressed suspicion there before he even voted?

i'll admit i considered not going there because i'm still somewhat suspicious of umlaut but i think the way hu tao has tagged along on both the dragon and gob wagons outweighs those worries about umlaut

i'm a little wary of you and aliana but y'all are both putting in more effort than hu tao. i think celebloki and drew are town, and i know i'm town, so i'm not sure why you think it's a bad look for me to push hu tao here

So I'm scum because I'm not putting enough effort in for your liking?

that's certainly one way to phrase it

i think you could be scum because you're not really doing much solving, you want to end the day for a reason i don't think makes much sense, and you're just jumping from wagon to wagon without much reasoning

I started the gob quick wagon. So if I'm scum are you saying I'm saving my scum teammate dragon after making him claim? Or are you saying I'm scum who wanted to remove pressure off one town to another?

Hu comes across as pretty defensive here

I've been thinking that the last scum is someone that has been scumreading Dragon and putting him in their solves. Hu Tao has been doing that more than anyone

Hu Tao is also doing the least amount of solving and seems to just be lurking through the game not saying much of anything. I kinda thought it was lazy town but now I just think it's scum motivated

I kinda forgot about that game, that was a slap in the face to lose. But I'm looking at it again now and I found the 3 you mentioned - these look more like your Open 895 (town) posts. 833 on Drew analyzes each post, and comes to a meaningful conclusion at the end that is supported by the analysis. You tell us how you feel about each of Drew's posts and it comes together. 974 is a tally sheet where you're checking Alianna's and gob's ISOs for partner equity with flipped scum gob. 1153 on Hu Tao is a list of her posts with reasons why they're scummy - like the Elements post from Open 895.

This case on Gamma is more IIOA than you do as town

VOTE: Black

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Flavorless Hell being the exception (or maybe I'm forgetting Flavorless Hell) - when I've been town with you we always 'click' at some point. That isn't happening here, because you're scum. And you really don't know my play that well if you don't think I'd vote you solely for that - this isn't only about IIOA though, that's just the first thing I noticed when I started looking into your scumgames.

Ever since you unvoted Dannflor at the last second things have started to feel off. The recent pivot around Thomith, myself, and voting on or off of the Naerys wagon piqued my interest. On D1 I thought we just had very different solves and one of us would probably readjust after some time and some flips, but now I think you're hard avoiding flipping Dragon/Dann and looking for any excuse to do it. I think if you were town you'd have let Hu Tao hammer that wagon, but that's not evidence, that's a suspicion. And now with Thomith and Dann questioning that there should be at least 1 scum on and off the Naerys wagon, you switch from voting Thomith one minute to me the next, because I also believe your assessment of the Naerys wagon was correct - that there were not 3 scum on it. No other reason - it's a blatant repositioning as the tide shifts. You don't really care who gets eliminated as long as it isn't Dann. I wouldn't be surprised if you were in on Dragon's self-voting "wagons" on D1 you were on at least one of them

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Black

This was why I didn't want to seriously push Black today but I couldn't control myself. I don't want to shift attention from one scumwagon to another scumwagon only to watch them both get away at the end of the day.

We focus on dragondann first and Black's alignment will become obvious.

I'm thinking at this point her heels are dug far enough in that either flip will damn the other. I'm still for a Dann lim but we've had opportunity for it to get hammered and Black backed down when intent was given. I want to try to push this at least for a little while - it will definitely be easier to get to Dann with Black out of the way too.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

just hammer me then huh

I was already on your wagon I couldn't... and yes it's starting to look that way. Why do you think Black is town?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just vote kyouko. This isn't town kyouko. When she's town she's overly town. This game she's not.

This is the right way to find me when I'm town but the wrong way to find me when I'm scum and you should know this already.
My towngame and my scumgame have a lot of overlap, but my scumgame does not overlap into my "overly town" play. When you see me being overly town, I am town. When you don't see it, it doesn't make me scum.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

disappointing read

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Dann
fine

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just vote kyouko. This isn't town kyouko. When she's town she's overly town. This game she's not.

Like correct me if I'm wrong but you've 1) never played with scum me and 2) were wrong the last time you tried this

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Thinking about it more, I really don't like Kyo's wagon

Trust. The people who play with her a lot say this isn't her town game

Gamma has played with me a lot. 32 out of my 51 completed games. You've played with me I think twice, and I think 4 if you're counting ongoing games. For Black I believe the numbers are exactly the same. Thomith has played fewer still than that - and most of these games you 3 have with me have overlap so you're all probably thinking of the same games. You don't have a good idea of what my town and scum ranges are.

Spoiler:

Complete:
01. Mini Normal 1850 - VT - Eliminated Day 1 - Town Win
03. Open 659: Jungle Republic - Vanilla Townie - NKed Night 1 - Town Loss
04. Birds of Paradise - Goon - Flawless Mafia Win
05. Newbie 1764: Wind - Replaced Goon - Flawless Mafia Win
07. Open 660: White Flag - VT - Eliminated D4 - Town Loss
08. Mini 1860 - Town 1-Shot Commuter - Vigged Night 2 - Town Win
09. Micro 661: Scumteam unpick - Replaced VT - Eliminated D1 - Town Win
11. Open 663: Stack the Deck - VT - Killed Night 1 - Town Win
12. Large Normal 200 - VT - Vigged N2 - Town Win
13. Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir - VT - Vigged N3 - Town Loss
14. Mini Normal 1865 - VT - Endgamed - Town Loss
15. Code Geass - Shinichiro Tamaki (Town) - Venged D1 - Town Win
21. Mini Normal 2057 - Town Mason (Replaced Out mid-way) - Town Win
22. Mini Normal 2213 - VT - Town Loss
24. Mini Theme 2217: Owners Market Blitz - VT (elected MO) - Survived - Town Win
25. Mini Normal 2218 - Mafia Odd Night Strongman - Mafia Loss
26. Large Normal 233 - Mafia Goon - Mafia Loss
28. Mini Theme 2225: Chrono Trigger Chronicles - VT - Eliminated D1 - Town Win
30. Mini Theme 3001: Radio Buzz - Insurgent (VT) - Eliminated D4 - Town Win
32. Open 827: Dead Silence III - Town Mason - Daykilled - Town Win
33. Mini Normal 2232 - VT - Killed N2 - Town Loss
35. Large Normal 236 - Mafia 1-Shot Loud Visitor - Eliminated D1 - Mafia Loss
36. Mini Theme 2228: Isekai uPick - Akatsuki (Town Tracker/Restricted Watcher) - Survived - Town Win
37. Mini Normal 2238: (Modded by Dwlee99) - VT - Survived - Town Win
38. Mini Theme 2240: SCP uPick - Researcher (Town) Panacea - NKed Night 2 - Town Loss
40. Mini Theme 2244: 3d20 uRoll - (19, 13, 10) Cult Leader Complex Mason Finder - Killed N1 - Cult Loss
41. Mini Normal 2239: AQAtPimP - Town 2-Shot JOAT - Killed N4 - Town Loss (Vigged N_M and blocked a NK with my JOAT powers)
42. Manatee's Pokemon Large Theme - Town Azurill - Killed N1 - Town Loss
43. Large 237 - Mafia Doctor - Eliminated D1 - Mafia Loss
44. Mini 2247: Mountain Dew Mafia - Replaced Livewire (VT) - Survived - Town Win
47. Open 893: 9:12 - Vanilla Townie - Survived - Town Win
49. Mini Theme 2320: Smuggler's Port 2 - Merchant (VT) - volunteered as tribute D1 - Town Win

I believe this to be a comprehensive compendium
of games where me and kyouko stood in the same stadium
Though I think it was a bad idea to take this measure
because looking back at mini 2238 for a split second spiked my blood pressure

It's weird cause I thought Dragon was scum. But I think Dann is townish.

This is like the same thing Gamma and I said - and similar to Black's idea on keeping Dann alive:

But Dann I'm just wary of on principle. I'm not sure if I'm convinced he couldn't have the same catch-up as scum, which I say because ignoring Dragon, and taking off Dann's nameplate, I think I'd TR him.

I feel like I would lean Dann town in isolation but he’s kinda a player I just hold judgment on until most often I see a solid scumtell, I rarely feel good about Dann!town

How well do you know Danns play Black?
Is there a world where he's catering to you so you TR him?

Yes, that world is possible

If Dann is town then I want him around. He's one of the best players on the site imo

I think if he's town then Mafia's best move is to either NK him before he solves the game or leave him alive to strike deepwolf fear into us. But the longer they leave him alive, the more likely he'll produce something that just wins us the game anyway

If he's scum then we have to cross that bridge eventually but because he's so good at being town, I think dealing with him later is a better option