Open 236 - Pamplona Mafia (C9++) Game Over

[yabbaguy]

So we know it's VV?????.

We now know that 3 Mafia exist in this game since only 5 Ts maximum can exist.

No idea on SK, they might've inhibited the kill for a plethora of reasons. They're not compulsive. :\

[yabbaguy]

But that's in the air. We know at least 2 Vs are there, possibly 4. And yeah, I had no idea *on the existence* of the SK.

And why aren't you even sharing a reason for your silly little vote?

[yabbaguy]

ekiM, your math isn't stacking in my head. Every time a T is inputted into the setup, it flips what I'll call the light switch for the Serial Killer, which determines whether or not it enters into the game. So with 0 Ts, it's even and the "SK switch" is on.

Add a T, the switch is off.

2 Ts, it's on.

etc. etc.

SK existence isn't confirmed until all 7 inputs (letters) are known. Even with 6 known, the 7th input has a 50/50 chance of either being T or "not T". That flips the switch into its final position, which determines SK's existence.

And random voting sucks 'cause it doesn't do crap. Why do you think it helps?

semi-random

Vote: ekiM

[yabbaguy]

@Beefster: There is a vigilante. That is known fact.

How do you come up with 2 kills = SK + Mafia?

@ekiM + Aldusskkel: I'll fully explain it a bit later. I went for ekiM simply because he thought RVS was going to be helpful, and I wanted to know. Slipping just doesn't happen

as a result of random votes

, the way I see it. If anything, RVS usually leads to a dead-end if done completely randomly.

And yeah, the false info with the math irked me.

@Zajnet: How do people slip during RVS (specifically)? Is it a cause of the random votes?

[yabbaguy]

The big beef I have is that the random votes themselves, save for Newbie games where there's always an L-2 freakout bound to happen, is that nothing transparent ever comes out of those votes alone. Usually, yes, it's someone doing something else controversial apart from that.

Yeah, I picked a random argument that's rather trivial and saw how people reacted to it, and that being that you thinking RVS was going to help was nowhere near the mark. What do I learn:

-you're quite reasoned and level-headed
-Alduskkel has a rather impatient temper in this game, which is fascinating.
-Ythan is content to actively ignore the debate altogether. Also fascinating.
-Zajnet is reasoned when defending that same opinion I find very, very wrong. Not afraid to weigh in.

We'll see where it goes from there. That's why I inhibited the reasons, so I could get more reactions.

Beefster taking a strong stance also fuels the game as well, saying that he thinks speculation is worthless (It's not!).

@Netlava:

There's really no reason for the SK and mafia not to shoot every night.

RB interference is a confounding variable as well.

@Fonz: Help me out here, what question to or about Netlava are you voting him over? The N0 Vig question?

Unvote, Vote: Beefster

. I just don't believe you somehow overlooked the vigilante possibility when practically everyone in the initial conversation of the game made a mention to it.

@ekiM: I think I can explain it now:

0 Ts and 5 Ts are equal probability (1/32 each)
1 T and 4 Ts are equal probability (5/32 each)
2 Ts and 3 Ts are equal probability. (10/32 each)

0, 2, 4 Ts will put an SK in, and 1,3,5 won't.

P (0,2,4) / P (0,1,2,3,4,5) = 16/32 = 1/2.

I believe your logic is similar to saying, "okay I've flipped 4 heads in a row, but there's a 1/32 chance theoretical probability of taking a coin and flipping 5 heads in a row. That means I only have a 1/32 chance of getting this fifth head." No, you're still at 1/2.

[yabbaguy]

Useless pool of RVS discussion, you said. That's pretty much avoidance of the issue.

It's merely intriguing.

[yabbaguy]

Quickposting to say that I believe drmy just voted while on the fence.

[yabbaguy]

Slightly-longer posting to inquire of Beefster why thinking something is worthless is not the same as thinking it a bad idea. That's how I discerned that word, in that bad idea in this case would mean useless because the benefits are outweighed by the risks (?).

The other thing is that I came into the game saying VV. Alduskkel said VVVV and VV and there were about a couple other references to what the VV/VVVV input was in the setup. It was quite plainly there, so you somehow overlooking ALL of that and proceeding to immediately discern Serial Killer is, well, fascinating. Whether it's scummy, eh, it could just be you not reading. But it's just odd.

Unvote

Why are you still voting me? It's not contrived to a scummy degree what I'm saying to you.

Also, @all: I'm puzzled why Netlava gets all the flak when Ythan asked the N0 vig question in the first place. If anyone, I would zing the latter. Why not?

[yabbaguy]

Bah, true. He didn't actually ask it *technicalities grumblegrumble*.

[yabbaguy]

@Ythan: Why did you phrase the question in question as "would it be acceptable to ask..." instead of asking the question outright?

Why is explaining a random vote as eenie-meenie-minie-moe not a reason, no less dodging?

@Ald: Why so cutting and sarcastic? Is this how you normally post?

Do you consider a player active lurking after one post? Is it scummy at that point? (referencing: "Hey.")

@Fonz: (answer after Ythan answers your latest question) Do you think speculation has good pro-Town benefits?

[yabbaguy]

I'll stack Ythan's meta of being noticeably more bitter and hostile as scum on top of the laundry list of everything else stated. I also don't believe his reply to me, I think Ald's explanation of his random vote, which granted, is a pointless random vote that's the equivalent of doing it with a randomizer, is quite sufficient. I also don't believe Ythan on the "uncertain of the impact" statement for finding a question to ask come the RVS/RQS/BBQ. If you expect a question to be potentially Town-negative, find something else that ignites the pyrotechnics in a way that they won't explode in your face.

Vote: Ythan

Meta is here. (starts at post 908 if your browser is funky) Notice the non-deserved usage of the word spoon-feed at 913. That sounds familiar.

I've never seen a meta read this categorically accurate in my life.

[yabbaguy]

Okay, he uses spoonfeed as both alignments. Fine.

But according to his wiki, he's only been lynched once as Town-aligned, so I looked there (skimmed through MN930; two months old). At least when he was under suspicion, he appeared to be behaving rationally (self-vote aside). My perception is still that the points on him are valid while here he's piecing up arguments to the point where they make no sense in an attempt to distract. Fact of the matter is that he's done scummy things, and filibustering isn't going to get him out of it.

FOS: Zajnet

though for fence-sitting. You're saying stuff about how "it looks bad for me" and "you don't like it", but you point these suspicions out as if from an omniscient point of view without you actually calling it scummy. It hurts my mind that you'd talk to Ythan almost as if in conversation though.

[yabbaguy]

Doesn't mean I can't wagon you. The cases Ald, Fonz, and whoever else have been making have been clearly valid, from what I perceive, you're getting dodgy about a simple inquiry over a policy question which you didn't

really

ask for technicality's sake, but was so, so rolefishing. You claim you weren't sure of the impact, but I don't believe you on that.

So, that doesn't matter. That's how wagonning works. My other modus operandi could've been to say "wow good points, vote: Ythan", but I thought I might as well point out what I thought to be true as well.

I still believe the meta's true. But in any event, you look scummy in this game notwithstanding the comparisons to others, so it works either way up.

[yabbaguy]

I probably did fuck up on the meta read calling it categorically accurate. Still a good wagon even without that aspect. I thought 2 months wouldn't be a substantial difference anyway, that's seldom shorter than the span of a typical MS game, I'd figure. I don't think I was in the wrong to at least deliberate bringing it up.

[yabbaguy]

Prod beef, Dry-fit, ekiM, and kyle99 please. They're all in range for one according to TDC's handy-dandy little gadget.

We can't have 1/3 of the game lurking. This game feels a lot like it's about to lose steam to the point where we're going to be an apathetic Town. I loathe playing these sorts of games.

[yabbaguy]

@Ythan: Most suspicious, then?

[yabbaguy]

Preemptive: No.

More later.

[yabbaguy]

Mastin responds sentence-at-a-time. Sometimes fragment-of-sentence-at-a-time.

But he also talks funny, while your English is rather straightforward.

[yabbaguy]

(Odds on someone interpreting this as coaching? Short).

Why are you preemptively deflecting suspicions?

[yabbaguy]

Flagging this for myself, I'll have more later.

[yabbaguy]

Allow me to ask the $1,000,000 Question: Why is Alduskkel's random vote such a fucking big deal?

I don't know how in blazes Prox finds a

contradiction

(scummy??????) of all things nestled inside a random vote's rationale, which is sort of an oxymoronic phrase IMO.

Fact of the matter: Ythan rolefished, and it's sort of one of those things that's irrefutably scummy; you can't really do much about it at this point. Seeing not much because of the game atmosphere that encourages camouflaging (Ythan and Prox are borderline spamming the thread and drmy, myself, and Dry are borderline devoid of content) and the squabbling that sometimes degenerates to pointlessness, I think my original vote will have to stand for now.

Prox is making a plethora of bizarre speculations such as claiming Ythan is town near-baselessly and basically reaching conclusions whose bases I don't fully comprehend. I will keep in mind that perhaps these are raw newbie thoughts, so I'm not ready to call this a basing of information on informed facts (i.e. with Mafia-given information), but it's something to look at. I'd also like him to restate his Netlava thoughts or point out a post where he stated such, just to double-check on him.

@Beefster: Explain the FoS on Prox

The case for shotty being scum actually is an intriguing one. He calls Beef dumb and VIish around ISO-14, and inquires about Prox's vote of him on 17, but then whirls around and says second on the list at 21 and votes him WITHOUT any prior indication that he felt this way.

My attention's on Ythan, Beef, and shotty at the moment- but again, camouflaging is encouraged as I'm finding out from firsthand experience. We really need to all make a conscious effort to hold people accountable for activity and also make the thread more readable; there's quite a bit of squabbling in the thread that degenerates to nothingness.

[yabbaguy]

When he refuses to explain it satisfactorily it becomes a big deal.

*brainmelt*

Whowhatwhenwherewhyhow? Not sure what part of my post you replied to.

And high volume still sucks if people are content to be in a hidey hole the [w]hole game.

[yabbaguy]

I am focused on it. (WARNING: Worthless debate subject incoming!)

[yabbaguy]

My attention's on Ythan, Beef, and shotty at the moment- but again, camouflaging is encouraged as I'm finding out from firsthand experience.

[yabbaguy]

Seeing not much because of the game atmosphere that encourages camouflaging (Ythan and Prox are borderline spamming the thread and drmy, myself, and Dry are borderline devoid of content) and the squabbling that sometimes degenerates to pointlessness, I think my original vote will have to stand for now.

[yabbaguy]

If true:

VVDD???

[yabbaguy]

...well, that's pointless really. Mason trio is the only one that can definitively counterclaim. as MMMM and DD can't coexist in VV?????

Two Backup Nurses could exist. :\

Frankly, I'm inclined to believe it.

[yabbaguy]

backup nurses???

Backup Doctors.

[yabbaguy]

Right. >_<

Okay, mason trio or a backup doc is a counterclaim.

[yabbaguy]

You blew it on the quote labelling. I think that [/b]astard tag did you in.

[yabbaguy]

Psst. Hey, dumbass.

make the thread more readable; there's quite a bit of squabbling in the thread that degenerates to nothingness.

[yabbaguy]

*still wants Ythan dead*

I think starting this firestorm of irrelevant conversation is cluttering the game and is scummy since it's obscuring all scumhunting efforts and causing us to look like drunken sailors.

It's a utility lynch- my favorite considering it's a policy lynch that also has a basis derived from scumtells of the player, as all votes should be.

[yabbaguy]

WTF no claim?

He's on L-1. If he claims vanilla or something unconvincing, THEN you hammer. Simple.

(simul with Ythan)

[yabbaguy]

Why do you distrust the claim, Ald? All the signs, the way I see it, point to letting him ride to LyLo or be the NK.

[yabbaguy]

Say Dr (backup) Doc rides to LyLo. If no Doctor claims come, then he's obv lying and he's gonzo. One thing to note is that there's no indication to the Mafia that a Doc exists unless e.g. SK and Doctor both exist and Mafia's kill was stopped. It could also be a Blocker's meddling, but drawing a B for an input is far less likely.

On the flipside, say a Doctor claim

does

come. That makes it a trifle more complicated.

The tricky thing in this game is that each backup role, amongst the plethora of roles that exist in this game

can only exist once

. If shotty is fakeclaiming, and an

actual

backup Doctor exists, the CC comes and shotty is lynched straightaway. There's actually a quite bit more risk, and while this starts to be the recursive logic loop we affectionately call WIFOM, I don't see why scum would want to go for the role that carries the greatest risk of resulting in an immediate lynch.

I find it questionable if scum were to fakeclaim this, and thus I believe him.

[yabbaguy]

Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease pleasepleaseplease stop using "______ much?". It really, really sucks as a cliché and needs to die now.

Notwithstanding that, Beef-454's tone pings scummy on a hunch.

BTW, my hotel provides unlimited access, so I can safely say I'm merely Limited Access at worst.

[yabbaguy]

Ugh. The recency effect has derailed Ythan's bandwagon.

Unvote, Vote: Beefster

, happy to do this. I don't think No Lynching would be a smart thing to do.

[yabbaguy]

Initial thoughts:

Vote: Zajnet

for fluffing and IIoA. It's rather apparent he got excited when the discussion shifted to the always-neutral "what could the setup be" topic.

FoS: Prox

because he calls Town reads baselessly and has a way of questioning that's more white noise than anything. He's tossed out a lot of questions, but I haven't seen him follow up on them much. I consider this a scumtell because it's like scum throwing as many darts as they can at the Town until one manages to stick. If it doesn't, forget it and try another. I think the contribution from his end has been rather hollow.

[yabbaguy]

Hang on, 3 v 5 w/Vig = lynchlynchlynch. If we whiff, the Vig still gets a crack at saving the game.

There's no scum piling-on malarkey yet.

[yabbaguy]

Please read Zajnet's ISO. Things to notice while you're reading it is the fact that he seems very laid-back while we're scumhunting, but when it comes to determining the setup, he's very into that and how to deal with your Nurse claim etc. etc. etc.

Prox- my issue is that you're very swingy with your suspicions and that you're willing to question anyone on a whim having no clear stance on who you find scummy. Just from your ISO page 3, I notice you start by saying "Act, shotty", then it's "wth is with Dry-fit's lurking", then "Beefster's being opportunistic"

Obviously we know the Beef point is wrong, but which is it

really

? Your scumhunting is very opaque and that has me wary.

[yabbaguy]

It's not.

Suspects Prox, plox.

[yabbaguy]

BTW Zajnet, the "my case doesn't exist" argument is invalid.

[yabbaguy]

Prod zajnet please. Hasn't been 72 hours yet, but we are all waiting on him.

[yabbaguy]

Typed it from an iPhone, didn't feel like clicking those itsy-bitsy page numbers to read the rules and go check. >_<

I'm still assuming I'm 100% correct on Zajnet until he or someone else refutes it.

[yabbaguy]

Analyzing my wagon is thus the best way for me to scumhunt right now.

Good idea!

Try doing it.

[yabbaguy]

Unvote

.

If the vigilante has to stay secret, I reckon a massclaim as outlined below would be helpful.

Phase 1: Claim Doctor/Not Doctor. If all say Not Doctor, lynch shotty. If one says "I'm Doctor"...
Phase 2: Massclaim with Vig claiming Townie

If no Doctor comes up, shotty becomes the obvious choice. If a Doctor does appear, it either is accompanied by a single PR claim for VVCDD*T, where * is any non-T input, and if nobody claims, we have VVCDT??, and shotty's claim doesn't fit (VVCDDTT falsely implies an SK) .

I haven't seen any other reasons for dissenting against massclaiming, nor do I see one myself. I'm still analyzing if Mafia can sabotage this method somehow...

[yabbaguy]

Yeah, there's a lot of ways Mafia can jerrymander with my system. I'll cave to the RNG guessing game.

Vote: shotty

[yabbaguy]

Alduskkel, are you saying that the Day was ended too quickly? /:|

[yabbaguy]

Mod: Post 0 contradicts the death scene, I'm presuming shotty was backup doc since he claimed such, yes?

The other I'm thinking of is Fonz in this case just because of his hyperfocusing on Ythan and nobody else during the early part of D1. I'm trying desperately to avoid the emotional tilt from blowing LyLo as Town to Fonz-scum not that long ago, but one thing that he did in that other game was to hyper focus on a debate (Town v. Town) that really wasn't all

that

relevant and make it a big deal, thus distracting the Town.

(it was Maf en Français if anyone

can

read it.) :D

I'm also banking on ekiM-scum and his categorically blatant appeal to probability that I feel so gullible for succumbing to D2.

Both of the above also focus in on Dry-fit a lot, which irks me because I perceive it as an easy lurker lynch when I look back. What also is nagging me, though, is the fact that Prox was so jumpy as mentioned before:

Prox- my issue is that you're very swingy with your suspicions and that you're willing to question anyone on a whim having no clear stance on who you find scummy. Just from your ISO page 3, I notice you start by saying "Act, shotty", then it's "wth is with Dry-fit's lurking", then "Beefster's being opportunistic"

Prox needs to clearly state his suspect shortlist or I'm going to get ticked.

Setup is VVCDDT?. The problem is that since we're playing Naïve Millers, it could be VVCCDDT, and nobody could tell the difference. (Note for postgame- that should be fixed!) I think solely because of that, no powerclaim is confirmable. >:(

[yabbaguy]

STOP! Please stop listening to the others and hear me out.

My plan is to play this out without roleclaiming, and if we get scum lynched, then we might have a scenario of one confirmed Town, the Doctor, in the final LyLo, which raises the Town win probability up, or two Doctors and a Blocker puts Blocker in the driver's seat, the only other town PR I could plausibly see exist at this point. If we go ahead and get a Doctor to claim, we may get confirmed Town now, but we lose him in the LyLo that really matters. A Doctor who seems to be counterclaiming isn't actually counterclaiming if it's VVCDDDT!

It's too easy for scum to meddle with a massclaim at this point; even though there's some risk for them, I don't think it should be done. There's also VVCCDDT which gives them the license to bullshit any powerclaim

and get away with it.

I don't like this.

And I still want ekiM to explain why he used statistics back there to decide on shotty. Like, solely statistics. Nothing else. The math is good, but if you're informed, you know it's actually a 100% chance of shotty flipping Town.

[yabbaguy]

Firstly, I'm pretty sure ekiM is town. If Zajnet were scum, then they were almost certainly partners, but it made no sense for scum-ekiM to stick his neck out like that to swing the lynch from one town player to another (would have raised the chances of him being town).

Post link please?

[yabbaguy]

I started this post earlier today, so I'll just start by replying to ekiM. All quotes his.

You know we lose if we lynch a townie today?

Yes, this and likely tomorrow is LyLo. That's obvious, but I'm saying that your suggestion of massclaiming isn't as effective today because scum are better off jerrymandering with a massclaim here than D4 (if they get caught lying- they get lynched, and then our confirmed Town falls.)

D vs DDD is 37% vs. 2%. Discounting this.

18.5:1 against that being the case != 0%. It's ridiculous that you're discounting things merely due to improbability, especially when probability just screwed the Town up D2.

Not seeing why [VVCCDDT] is so terrible. Explain?

It undermines the validity of almost any powerclaim beyond Doctor simply due to the fact that there may be no more powerroles left in the game aside from Doctor. That's why massclaiming has limited benefit.

A solid 5-1 probability argument swayed me a lot more than anything else I was getting out of the game. The four townie deaths didn't help me figure anything out, and the general quality of the town has been low, making it rather hard to distinguish scummy behavior from poor town play.

I'm not really sure what you're getting at here. dr was at least as scummy as anyone else, AND probability said it was unlikely his claim was true. What's your problem with this? Why didn't you have a problem with it yesterday but you do now?

I changed my mind from yesterday (yesterDay just looks dumb written out, kinda like Yabbaguy). Fonz does have a point that you switching from one Town to another has an element of unlikeliness, but at the same time, what bothers me is that there was A LOT of complacency when people accepted your new wagon. I know, I did it myself, but there had to have been free-riding scum on that. Ald, for one, was saying "Heh, :goodposting:" without blinking. What I would be willing to accept as an alternate theory is that you had Town motives for taking what what would be a gamble in that case, but scum were piggybacking on that incorrect gamble and driving the wagon up at light speed. I know, I was riding on that too, but I can't say much beyond this point other than it's not me.

I could see scum motives for you switching. Having confirmed Town shrinks the unlynchable pool, and the problem is that you didn't even dwell on shotty's scumminess when you brought up the probability point.

---

Like I said, stand by for the rest of my response.

[yabbaguy]

And you wildly botched the numbers, ekiM. We have 2 D inputs, which was 12% likely. It's 6:1 against DDD, which certainly isn't slim (shotty flipping Town was 5:1, IIRC)

[yabbaguy]

Replying to Fonz, all quotes his.

A townie lynch doesn't end the game if there's a successful save. I don't see any need to out a doctor who might not get run up.

Actually, the first part is wrong, a Doctor can't salvage a 2:2 now that we're out of vigilantes (unless one has been hiding the whole time for some inexplicable reason)

yabba actually really looks scummy for his 'Oh my, that nasty ekiM misled me!' thing. Especially since all ekiM's actions did was move the wagon from an unclaimed undercontributing scummy-looking townie to a weak-roleclaimed undercontributing self-contradicting scummy looking townie. There's no real strong reason to believe that's in scum's interests. Scum-ekiM would have known that drmy wasn't the vig or doc, but that Zajnet might have been.

Again, I have an alternate theory: his sudden realization was actually him finding a way to throw shotty back into the mislynchable pool. I, for one, wasn't willing to touch him without good reason, yet I stupidly bought into ekiM's reasoning on a reflexive whim.

Also, he is misrepresenting my play in MeF. I did not in any way, shape or form 'hyper tunnel' on StrangerCoug vs Quoi. I asked people to comment on it because it was the beginning of the game, and it was the first thing of genuine relevance I saw. And almost importantly, I did this because that is my MO as town, to try to get people commenting on relevant issues ASAP.

Tout le monde devrait donner une opinion sur SC/Quoi, ou trouver quelque chose qu'il pense soit plus important. Comment dit-on 'lurker?'

Everyone needs to give an opinion on StrangerCoug/Quoi, or find something that they think is more important. How do you say "lurker"?

...I actually missed that part where you brought up that "bringing up something more important", especially with Apathy Mode at the max. I'll give you that it wasn't blatantly dichotomizing.

What the heck does the word misrepresentation mean

to you

? How can you distinguish it from mis

interpretation

?

The interesting thing is, I can see yabba connections to both Netlava and Prox. Prox, because yabba keeps him second on his suspect list, behind Zajnet, for quite a long time, and today, lo and behold, he's third behind me and ekiM. So yabba keeps Prox in the position where he midly cricitises him, but doesn't vote him.

For one, I'm buying into your points, so Prox moves onto the second spot now. The reason I brought ekiM all the way up to the front of the line is that I believed that his appeal to probability was flagrantly scummy and has a legitimate incentive (although you disagree) for the informed minority to bring up if they know shotty's Town. That's why Prox hasn't been as large of a suspect, because while the point that his scumhunting is wishy-washy is sticking in my mind, I thought that this was a more concrete lead for me. I don't see how this line of thought is either not allowed or potentially scum-motivated.

OTOH, we have the 'Why is Netlava and not Ythan getting all the heat' thing in reaction to me, and others, voting him over him not seeing the flaw in Ythan's logic, and the fact that he COMPLETELY IGNORES Netlava in his first post today.

Well you didn't bring up Ythan, first off, and secondly, I didn't bring up Net simply because I thought he was Town in the wake of the other scumminess. I also just don't see Netlava/ekiM as the remaining two; I think ekiM's case on Netlava is merely "his scumhunting sucks", and that sounds like the weak, baseless case that just is trying to mislynch him.

I actually seesawed on whether or not to put you or ekiM on the top spot, and you can tell since I left "The other person" in front of your name in the first paragraph. I do think that his willingness to fire at shotty does have potential scum motives, so that's why I'm pursuing that.

The reason I'm not going after Prox as actively is just because he's not posting much, and I therefore can't continue the questioning. (he timed his 6-day flake-out rather beautifully, right on the cusp of N2.)

[yabbaguy]

Prox- my issue is that you're very swingy with your suspicions and that you're willing to question anyone on a whim having no clear stance on who you find scummy. Just from your ISO page 3, I notice you start by saying "Act, shotty", then it's "wth is with Dry-fit's lurking", then "Beefster's being opportunistic"

Nothing to say to that?

[yabbaguy]

Secondly, scum didn't need to throw shotty in the 'lynchable' pool, he was already there.

I don't buy that. I think he was merrily on his way to advancing to LyLo until ekiM brought up the statistics. You have to take into account that ekiM changed his mind, it's blatantly obvious that regardless of his alignment, this revelation dawned on ekiM post-facto.

Consider this, what if ekiM is the Spy (and the Spy MUST exist with only one T input) and he detected Zajnet was a vigilante? The result is given at Daybreak, so he would've investigated him last Night, and then gotten the result N1, yet would've been unable to convey the result until N2. That's why his opinon differed from any other Mafia that were on board. If Zajnet was driven to L-1 and claimed, he would've claimed Vigilante and either confirm himself or force out a Mafia, which presents an interesting scenario- the Mafia can't kill him if we NL, then the scummy counterclaimer gets busted! That's why waiting for Zajnet to claim would not have resulted in a lynch the way I see it.

The only hole in my theory is why Zajnet's kill managed to succeed with a Mafia RB in existence. A Town Blocker getting lucky is one possibility. My theory might be a bit rough in a few places, but Spy-meddling is my new theory for why it's scum motivated.

Do you also realize that scum-ekiM would know whether or not the statistics are correct/not?

Nonetheless, your issue is a note of my playstyle. If you find it scummy, then...ok. What more is there to say?

Nope, I find it scummy that you were being wishy-washy. That's that.

---

Still thinking on the massclaim issue...

[yabbaguy]

misrep

You're misrepping me by saying that I'm misrepping you. How ironic.

Seriously, I'm calling it as I see it, you flipped between three stances in consecutive posts, and that's that. You can't use the word misrep unless you think that I'm doing it on purpose, somehow twisting the situation to look like something entirely different. Here, I'm calling it as I see it, you switched between three stances in consecutive posts (Beef/shotty/Dry-fit), and that's that.

@ yg, yes, of course i know that if ekim is scum, he knew drmy was town. The words 'informed minority' ring a bell?

Without trying to start a pointless squabble here, yes, that's what I'm trying to tell you. I'm trying to say that ekiM's usage of statistics is scummy because the fact of the matter is that his supposed gamble was wrong, and you have to factor into the issue whether or not he was scum-motivated to do so.

@Net: I'm putting chips on the fact that you didn't actually read my theory or are refusing to believe it stubbornly for whatever reason. I'm glad you're at least on board with the Prox-wagon, but actually read my Spy case on ekiM. It actually is a very plausible counter-explanation to Fonz's claim that ekiM had no motive to rip one Town wagon down for another. He KNEW Zajnet's claim. He KNEW Zajnet was going to save his ass and the Doctor would protect him, and he therefore didn't want to put up with that.

At this point, the Doctor does have limited usefulness, so I suppose we might as well proceed with the massclaim, seeing as I can't see any reason why we need the remaining powerroles intact. I'm presuming we all know what popcorn is?

[yabbaguy]

One pillar of my theory might actually be resolved/busted by the massclaim, so how about we fire up the Popcorn-O-Matic and see if that theory still stands?

I'm going V/LA soonish and I'm vanilla, so I'll claim first happily. ekiM next.

[yabbaguy]

Gah, I suck at this game. FWIW, sorry for wasting your time.

Quickly (again, I'm on vacation)- I'm still thinking Prox for the same reasons (which have not been discounted one bit the way I see it), but I should take into account that Netlava's hasty hammer with the rationale "Let's do this" of shotty could've sealed the game, and would've paid off handsomely (game win) as a scum opportunist move if Zajnet hadn't pegged Alduskkel.

Netlava/Prox is the pair I'm betting on, and I'm glad there's no scum meddling to be found. Have a look at how lurky Prox is, he's contributed absolutely nothing since this Day started, and I'm a bit angered that what I've been saying is not being registed (although like I said, the others aren't doing shit). Granted, my theories have been reduced to Certified 100% Bullshit Status, but Prox isn't making even a nominal effort to scumhunt. Netlava, same shtick.

[yabbaguy]

Prox not weighing in on the ekim spy debate is another scumpoint I can add to his laundry list.

Basically, floundering scum. His stances are not clear, and I can't think of this being anything other than opportunism.

[yabbaguy]

Why can't Prox be scum? VIs can be scum too, and if you recall, I have consistently found him scummy (and no, it's not bussing). Why are you instantly coming to the conclusion that he's town?

You are putting far too much faith in someone who *has* done scummy things, like swinging the pressure between multiple people far too quickly. I am not pushing a VI mislynch. Prox is scum. You are baselessly calling my attack baseless.

[yabbaguy]

V/LA over, but with school around the bend, my activity's still on speculative status.

Noted. ~~NS

[yabbaguy]

I haven't had the chance to view NL over vacation, I've been short-posting (not to say "crappy-posting") from my mom's iPhone on vacation, so I haven't had the chance to view him in-depth. However, remembering him voting shotty (notwithstanding the fact he threw the hammer) without putting him on his scumlist in the immediate span of time before then does strike me as a potential scum move.

When I swung at you with the "baseless" remark, I was irked by the fact that you were calling me someone just pushing a mislynch (or your prior theory: I'm scum and I'm bussing my partner). That's why I lashed out. I actually thought I had made a good case, and when someone calls it "scumvenient" (does anyone still use that word?), that's the opposite of that IMO. That's what I perceived it as. I was reading a bit more quickly than usual, I'll admit.

I perceived you as taking a Town stance on Prox because of your passionate plea of him to actually do crap. Usually, I see people do this when they think someone is VI-Town, and that's why I perceived you as taking that stance. Here I'm incorrect because it's more an issue of you keeping the Prox-town possibility open.

Sorry for my overuse of parenthetical statements (not that you noticed, I'm sure), I'll try to cut them down in the future.

[yabbaguy]

Plus, the hammer isn't more or less scummy than any other vote on that wagon.

Hammer should have no additional responsibility, you're right, but that isn't the issue.

I was just unsure how to handle his claim

Then why did you vote?

[yabbaguy]

It's quite clear what I mean. I think dr was just as good of a choice as any.

Automated Voice: Invalid answer. Please try again.

[yabbaguy]

Happy to swing the vote considering the remark of "the hammer isn't the scummiest vote" is somewhat true but doesn't nullify the fact that the vote itself was scummy and that we've hit a wall. If I lose to NL's logic, NL has only himself to blame.

Vote: Netlava

[yabbaguy]

Unvote

Wait.

[yabbaguy]

That hurts my mind so much. My Prox/NL theory is starting to crack with that rapid vote. If that's right- that last vote Prox slammed down was a bussing vote. I'm finding it very difficult to believe he'd do it in such a rash fashion.

[yabbaguy]

...yeah, I'll go for it.

Vote: Prox

[yabbaguy]

Netlava, I would not be surprised to see vote you. I'm looking for a 3rd vote, admittedly, but I just cannot keep you in the game after the way you tried to slide onto the NL wagon.

If it were Fonz or confirmed town-ekiM, I wouldn't have reflexively snapped my vote back. But I can't trust you, and you bussing NL with a vote like that sounds very, very unlikely.

[yabbaguy]

...I do realize that if I'm to say that NL is getting recklessly scum-wagonned, I have no choice but to say that Fonz is scum. I've been considering that again ever since he started fluffing. Now he's posting just to provide information instead of analysis.

For what it's worth, the original intent was not to trap Prox, but I turned it into one after seeing the way he tried to slide on. My initial conclusion, and one that still stands, is that he's trying to set the quickhammer for, well, Fonz.

[yabbaguy]

Fluffing? Pah. Try genuinely no idea who's scum since you're all so scummy. Though, you know, thanks for clarifying.

I don't understand this. It's loaded with all sorts of spite and I have no idea what this is even trying to say.

And hang on- I'm saying that Prox COULDN'T have bussed Netlava with that. If you're Town with me, then your thought at this moment should be to take that theory into account. How can you possibly be saying that I would "call Prox a bluffer as scum" and yet "hand scummy Netlava the chance to hammer". The two don't stack!

The weird thing is that you probably realize that; by voting Prox, you're agreeing with me on this. There's no way Netlava could be scum if this theory checks out.

[yabbaguy]

I'm still sure it's you, Fonz, so I'm just gonna go with it. That way if we're both wrong, we're not going to waste any more time firing PBPAs at each other while Netlava not only dupes us but gets to see a lose-lose boxing match between us from the luxury box seats.

Vote: The Fonz

I'll formally write out my thoughts after NL pops in.

[yabbaguy]

>:(

So Prox did bus.

[yabbaguy]

I really need to master the art of changing my mind. Fonz was dead-wrong, but to his credit, I just had no damned idea who to pick. Am I really allowed to drop the stupid ekiM-spy theory when I realize it's dumb and say "soz nvm"? Then I'm pegged as scum for throwing darts blindly against the wall hoping one sticks. After a threat like Fonz's, would he, as confirmed Town, have picked me after I flipped stances for the millionth time in a row?

I'm also just ticked that I've once again blown a LyLo. I cannot STAND being in endgame.

[yabbaguy]

I should just quit. I've been on this site for a fucking year and I can't catch obvhammering scum. Why did I base it off of that one vote, why did I do... everything. I went through the whole topic and I wound up picking Fonz. That proves I cannot play this game.

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[yabbaguy]

You wouldn't have picked me if you were the confirmed Town in LyLo. I was in a catch-22 too.

[yabbaguy]

But serious about the opinion-changing remark, I don't know how to change my mind without it being called scummy.

[yabbaguy]

I'm better now.

Yeah Prox, you were absolutely rubbish throughout, you've gotta contribute much much more, but I just completely misconstrued that vote as evidence you weren't linked to NL. I tried to take scum at face value.

[yabbaguy]

Also, WTF WTF WTF didn't Ythan claim with a guilty?

The Naïve Miller aspect confounds a lot of things. Millers really need to be aware of their identities in this setup, I've concluded that now. Otherwise, 1 C and

[yabbaguy]

2 Cs becomes impossible to distinguish.

Also, what do you make of the cop sanity issue? Should GFs always be innocent-seeming to Cops, or should an Insane Cop pick them up as Guilty? Irrelevant in this game, but it's worth debating.

[yabbaguy]

(More debate?)