Mini 470 - Some Guys Are Trying To Kill You (done)

[Erg0]

Vote: Erotomachia

because his/her name sounds vaguely dirty.

[Erg0]

Unvote, Vote: Soupfly

I don't like that "we gotta work hard, we lost our cop" speech - sounds suspiciously like the "congratulating the doc" tell to me.

[Erg0]

I can see where you get the suspicion of Gator from, and in fact I think it's a decent meta argument. It was really just the "go town" speech that you made that I found to be a minor scumtell.

[Erg0]

I'm totally playing, just being contemplative as I haven't seen a good place to move my vote to as yet. I'll do a roundup tonight to try and keep things moving.

[Erg0]

Agreed. The soupfly thing has more or less petered out, based (I believe) n the fact that his behaviour has improved. Oman, on the other hand...

Vote: Oman

Zakk's vote was little oddly timed, too -

FoS: Zakk

[Erg0]

I'm liking Oman's explanation, historically I have found most people that do the kind of thing that he did on day 1 end up being town. TOo early to lynch someone for doing what he did.

Unvote: Oman

Still a bit wary of Zakk, but we may have to wait a while for something from him by the looks of things. Gatorguy's misrepresentation of Thai resembles a scumtell that I've seen before on day 1, so

FoS: Gatorguy91

.

[Erg0]

MEh - VI is just the term that's become fashionable nowadays, this is just the usual "I only look scummy because I suck!" defence by another name.

[Erg0]

Unfortunately, my experience has been different - 90% of the time the person who does something outrageously bad on day 1 turns out to be a vanilla townie. Of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility that this game falls into the other 10%.

[Erg0]

Ergo, would you care to take your vote off me and re-cast, at least for now? I can't be judged by anything Langley has said (since he has hardly said anything)

It's the other way around: Langley was/you are voting for me.

[Erg0]

I agree with what Niv is saying - the idea of lynching for information has merit, but you should only vote for someone that you think is scummy. Info gained from lynching a townie is generally not as good as that found when lynching scum, plus you lose the townie's vote, obviously.

[Erg0]

Yeh, I didn't think I was. I don;t like Gator's list either but I'm still deciding whether I think he's scummy. Maybe he's trying to lend credibility to his VI claim?

[Erg0]

Well you're ignoring the obvious alternative, which is that he's scum trying to pass himself off as VI.

[Erg0]

Sorry, had a bad few days but I'm re-reading the thread as we speak.

[Erg0]

Soup, I don't believe Maz will tell us that. Mods tend not to reveal a whole lot of information (remember when you asked about Gator's absense)

i never asked about gator's absence, someone else did.

this is different. we are asking about the parameters of the game which are necessary for us to understand as we put together a strategy. i'm not asking to confirm or reveal roles but to tell us how the death scenes will be handled.

Just something that jumped out at me: generally the mod will not reveal anything in the death scenes that may indicate who is responsible for which kill. Ideally, the night scenes should not give players any information about which role (or player) did what because it unbalances the game by affecting players' claims.

Regardless of how Maz chooses to handle this, I wouldn't expect him to tell us ahead of time what will be included in the night scenes. This is one of those "mod discretion" things, I think.

[Erg0]

I was still reading when I posted that. Now that I've read through:

Vote: Oman

[Erg0]

Oman: just your general behaviour, particularly in the last three or so pages. There's nothing specific that I can point to, but you've consistently made the wrong play since the claiming started as far as I can see.

[Erg0]

Okay, so I made some bad calls, but I don't feel they're scummy.

Scum never do.

Also, One-shot vig? Jenter never mentioned that.

Good point, he never did as far as I can tell. This seems to be Niv's assumption?

[Erg0]

Speed wagon alert!

I think that's lynch-1. We could use a

vote count please Mod?

In the meantime,

unvote

FoS: Niv

I strongly feel that either Niv or Oman is the play for today.

[Erg0]

I'm not one-shot.

Still leaning to a Niv vote.

You're already voting for Niv? Or do you mean you're leaning towards a Niv lynch?

[Erg0]

Waiting for a claim from Niv. I don't think there's much to be gleaned from Streeflo's reluctance to vote for him at this moment, it's not like his individual vote is going to save or doom Niv.

I do find it strange that we were apparently waiting for a response from everyone but the person at lynch-1... I particularly don't like that Ero asked for town approval to hammer.

[Erg0]

My point is that there are a number of people other than Streeflo that could (and probably would) hammer Niv. Whether Streeflo decides to do it or not is not going to have a large impact on the outcome based on the general sentiment right now. I know what I mean.

Asking for town approval to hammer is a scumtell period. I'm aware of why we shouldn't hammer unless we're ready, but asking if everyone's ok with you hammering is like giving yourself an out if the person you hammer comes up town (i.e. "you all said I should hammer!").

I'd be surprised if Niv can avoid claiming and still get back from lynch-1 with 3 others suspicious of him. I'm willng to be surprised, though.

[Erg0]

I guess you could argue that setup was overpowered, but Masons are a pretty weak power role so they don't count too much in the town's favour, and vigs are something of a double edged sword. Overall, that role set doesn't seem too unusual for a game this size. That's assuming that we actually have a doc, of course, which isn't a given.

Ultimately, I'd rather risk lynching a townie than a claimed vig today. It will eventually become clear whether Jen is telling the truth, but there's obviously no way to verify Niv's. Waiting for others' reactions and then I'm happy to hammer if Niv stays at lynch-1.

[Erg0]

Well, I dunno - I would have expected an SK to kill on night 0, unless they were totally angling for a vig claim. No way that Jen knew he would have to claim day 1, though.

[Erg0]

Funnily enough, I just checked that after my last post. He was at lynch-2 at the moment he claimed, though he was at lynch-1 two posts earlier with Oman voting then unvoting and asking him to claim. He did hold out for a while before claiming, he was at lynch-1 on a previous occasion and didn't do it then. Interestingly, it was Oman that unvoted him both times when hit lynch-1. Not sure if that's relevant, it just jumped out at me as I read.

[Erg0]

Niv claimed vanilla town in 468.

My thoughts on Niv: I had some suspicions of him previously for much the same reasons as everybody else, it was his quick wagon vote on Oman that really got my attention. I think it's highly likely that he or TBS is scum. Probably not both, though.

I really don't see the point in lynching Oman today, we'll be able to figure out tomorrow or the next day if he's lying, and even if he is an SK there's no guarantee that he won't be helpful in the short term by killing scum at night - especially now that he can't kill a power role and still claim vig.

Anyone have anything further to add before I hammer?

[Erg0]

Oops I did get you confused with Jen there. I need better notes. I'll correct that post in a bit.

[Erg0]

Ok, let's try this again - remove "Oman" from my post above and insert "Jenter" in its place (not that we need to discuss lynching Jenter, I just got the two of them mixed up for a second).

My take on Oman - I don't really like his play today. The only reason that I moved my vote off him was the sudden pile-on by Niv and TBS that followed it. Having looked through Oman's posts again, I've decided not to hammer Niv yet, because I have to assume that we're choosing between two players who are either vanilla townies or scum (unless Oman is a doc, which seems unlikely).

If Niv and TBS are scum together then they're not very smart - jumping onto a day 1 wagon in quick succession doesn't seem like a sensible scum tactic to me.

Niv is at lynch-1 and Oman is at lynch-2 now unless I'm mistaken, with only GatorGuy and me not voting right now. I'm going to deliberate on this a little longer, this day isn't over yet.

[Erg0]

I really wish people would stop saying that.

[Erg0]

Except that if the second person is a townie it places a big sign on them saying "DO NOT NIGHTKILL THIS PERSON!"

Not that they're likely to anyway, I suppose. I just don't think it's a good idea to keep saying it over and over again.

[Erg0]

Good point.

Vote: Oman

This should be educational.

[Erg0]

Yeah, maybe. I'm partially trying to avoid WIFOM tomorrow on my choice.

Having said that, I actually do want to vote for Oman. He hasn't really done anything to address my initial concerns, and I probably wouldn't have found Niv's vote anywhere near as scummy if TBS hadn't voted for Oman immediately afterwards.

I'd actually prefer if someone switched over from the Niv wagon to lynch Oman - that would be much more educational than Gator hammering.

[Erg0]

I think you're scum, but I don't necessarily think that Niv is town.

There's no decision for me to make at this point, my vote is going on Oman whether it's now or later. If I unvote then GatorGuy will still effectively be making the decision on who gets lynched because he'll either hammer Niv or put Oman at lynch-1 for me to hammer. If it were solely up to me I'd lynch Oman.

[Erg0]

As I said before, anyone on the Niv wagon should feel free to change their vote at this point. For that matter, if anyone on the Oman wagon wants to change their vote to Niv then they can do that too. We're not totally reliant on Gator to make this decision for us.

[Erg0]

Oman: can we assume that your lack of a claim indicates that you're not a power role?

[Erg0]

So much for that idea. At least we know that Jenter wasn't an SK, though that probably makes things worse - no SK might mean no doctor either (especially given that Jenter was the logical protection target last night).

Eight living players means 7 suspects. I'll choose to assume for now that Gatorguy and Jimmy were making truthful claims, so that narrows it down to 5, probably 3 of which are scum.

Let's start with my next best suspect from yesterday.

Vote: ThaiBoxerShorts

[Erg0]

It's just occurred to me - with 8 players left and a likelihood of 3 scum, we're probably in LyLo today.

5 townies - 1 townie lynch - 1 townie nightkill = 3 townies for day 3
3 townies < 3 scum = we lose

So let's be careful with our votes today. It will only take two votes on a townie by other townies to allow a quicklynch for the loss.

[Erg0]

Unvote

Streeflo, Jimmy: Which of you is scum? Or is it both?

[Erg0]

Did you read my post 522? Even two votes is a dangerous number today.

[Erg0]

If he's town then we're most likely done and it doesn't matter who else is scum. We need to get it right today, we can't assume that we'll have a chance to get the scum tomorrow. I fail to see how I would be scum if he's town, since I unvoted him to try and avoid this exact situation - if I hadn't unvoted then TBS could be at lynch-1 now.

FoS: soupfly

for what looks like a bit of a stretch.

In LyLo, I generally go by the rule of only relying on the lack of quick hammer as a tell once every potential voter has posted. I'm going to wait and see what happens here before drawing any conclusions. If TBS is town then we're basically screwed unless Jimmy and Gator are lying about their roles. If Streeflo is also town then we're exceptionally screwed.

Side point: does everyone actually agree that we're probably in LyLo? It's not a given, but it does seem likely to me so I think we should be playing accordingly.

[Erg0]

Two votes may not be much of a problem, but TBS was at three votes until you unvoted, so only two more were needed for a quicklynch. I'm happier now that you've dropped off, though there's still a possible threat.

No lynch is worth considering, though it may not improve our position much. If we do it now then we won't have the option to do it on future days when it may be more helpful, so it's a bit of a balancing act.

I'd like to hear from TBS at this point.

[Erg0]

I don't see how a no lynch will help. A mason will probably get killed and we'll be in the same situation tomorrow.

A nightkill on one mason would confirm the other as town. Right now they're only partially confirmed.

[Erg0]

Mod:

Prod on ThaiBoxerShorts?

[Erg0]

Excellent service.

If we haven't heard from him in 2 days then I'm going to put my vote back on him. At this point I think there's an excellent chance that he's scum.

[Erg0]

Well, that'd be lynch-1. This one's happening with me or without me, so I might as well...

Vote: ThaiBoxerShorts

[Erg0]

The general lack of gloating is a pretty good sign, too.

[Erg0]

He said he was away for a couple of days, so I'd imagine that's why we're still in twilight.

[Erg0]

TBS never made a post on the site the whole of day 2 so I assume that he either didn't have access or just doesn't like us any more.

FoS: Streeflo

for raising spurious points.

Do scum masons count as 'Normal' for the purposes of defining a Normal Game?

[Erg0]

Streeflo: which post are you responding to?

[Erg0]

Ah ok. The first paragraph was in response to your comment on TBS (which I felt was a possible smokescreen). The second paragraph was raising a point for discussion, not in response to anything.

[Erg0]

Sorry, I should have been more specific - I meant a scum mason paired with a townie, not two scum masons.

[Erg0]

Erg0 strikes me as Godfather behavior. Town looking, but near the border. However, it is just a feeling, and on the whole, I would say he was townish.

Just quickly: didn't we just lynch the Godfather? I assumed that "Don" was the same as Godfather.

[Erg0]

Actually, more to the point there was no practical difference between the Godfather and the rest of the scum in this game, since the cop died before we even started. Ergo, no reason for the Godfather to behave differently to any other scum.

[Erg0]

I have a method that I like to use in this situation, but it will take me a day or two to get the required re-reads done. Hang tight, people.

[Erg0]

Notes on TBS, isolating his posts and focusing on his behaviour towards other players:

0. Random vote soupfly

1. Minor attack soupfly

2. Unvote in face of wagon on soupfly

3. Doesn't want to vote Langley (Jimmy), throw-in comment on Zakk (Haut Boy)

4. Thinks either Gator or soupfly is scum (prefers Gator)

6. Vote Langley (Jimmy) for lurking + lack of substance

7. IGMEOY Zakk (Haut Boy) for much the same reason

9. Distances from soupfly wagon

10. Puts Gator second on scum list, suspicion of Langley (Jimmy), Zakk (Haut Boy), ok with Oman, Jenter, soupfly

11. Again distancing from soupfly wagon. Vote Gator

14. Much the same as 11, not suspicious of Streeflo

16. IGMEOY Oman for townie claim

20. Pushes for Gator's mason buddy to claim

23. Withdraws plan due to flawed reasoning (caught in a gambit?)

25. IGMEOY Oman, mild suspicions

26. Unvote, FOS Oman

29. Vote Oman (4th vote on fast wagon)

Conclusions in a second.

[Erg0]

Breakdown by player:

Erotomachia - barely mentioned by TBS, answered a question from him at one point but that's it.

Jimmy R (Langley) - catches a vote for lurking and posting little substance.

soupfly - initially looks like TBS is distancing from him, but later comments where TBS disowns the wagon seem to indicate that he didn't want to be implicated in wagoning a townie.

Streeflo - also barely mentioned.

Haut Boy - looks suspicious because TBS is soft on his lurking and lack of substance while voting Langley (Jimmy R) for the same.

Based on that I'm thinking that the suspect list is narrowed to Haut Boy, Erotomachia and Streeflo, with Haut Boy firmly in the top spot. I'm going to do another analysis of posts by other players regarding TBS, which I expect will be illuminating.

[Erg0]

Having flicked through Haut Boy's posts I'm still putting him at the top of my list. Pretty much everyone he expressed suspicion of has turned out to be a townie, with the exception being soupfly, who I like as a townie for the reasons stated earlier. He hasn't posted on site since the 11th, so his stance on the Day 2 vote is more or less irrelevant since he appears not to have been here for it.

I agree that he needs to be replaced, so we can at least get a claim out of him. It would take something big to stop me from voting for him, though.

[Erg0]

Um, since when do the scum

vote

on night kills? When I mod I just need one of them to send me the kill, so if one is absent it wouldn't hold the game up.

Not only is this a terrible meta, it's factually inaccurate.

[Erg0]

If it was me, I'd send in the kill on my own at the night choice deadline. If your buddy hasn't responded by then they waive their right to have input.

[Erg0]

Interesting theory - so you're saying that if Haut Boy were scum then there'd be one person (his scumbuddy) defending him or at least trying to prevent him from being lynched.

Isn't that what

you're

doing?

[Erg0]

I think I've seen enough. All the signs point to Haut Boy, and realistically there's nothing that will change the fact that the entire town is suspicious of him. I don't want to put the mod to the trouble of finding another replacement just so that we can feel good about lynching him.

Vote: Haut Boy

[Erg0]

<snip>

All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.

All the signs point to Haut Boy

What signs?! He hasn't posted in 2 weeks!

I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of soupfly/Erg0 scumpair. Soupfly is still at the top of my scum list. For now, however, I'd like to hear more from Jimmy R (since he's the only confirmed innocent and someone we can trust) about what he thinks of the players besides Haut Boy.

Look at my posts 587, 588 and 594. I'm not voting on impulse, I genuinely think that Haut Boy's relationship with TBS was the most scummy. His inactivity is neither here nor there as far as I'm concerned.

Seriously, soupfly is the worst person you could try to pair me with besides maybe Jimmy. Haut Boy tried to distance himself massively from soupfly's wagon on day 1, I don't see him doing that if he was bussing his buddy.

[Erg0]

It is a gamble, but the question is whether it's a worse gamble than the alternative. My second option right now would be Erotomachia, and I can't see any way he'd be scum if Haut Boy is town so there's no practical difference between them.

[Erg0]

We do need a Haut Boy replacement because its four to lynch and there's only five active players at the moment which means that no lynch can take place without scum participation...ouch.

That's only true if Haut Boy is a townie.

[Erg0]

Looks like Haut Boy is being replaced (I see Maz has posted in the replacement thread). I do find it telling that there hasn't been a speedlynch now that he's at lynch -2.

[Erg0]

I don't like that unvote.

[Erg0]

He's in no imminent danger of being lynched and I'd rather maintain the pressure than reduce it.

[Erg0]

I'm struggling to see how your post above led you to the conclusion that you should vote for me...

[Erg0]

Why does eroto/Shanba seem less likely? I actually have had this as my

most

likely scumpair since the start of the day.

I'll do a reply to Shanba second vote when I get a few minutes spare.

[Erg0]

Ok, my problem with Shanba: all of those arguments are based on the assumption that you're town. You may know that, but nobody else does. Your reasons for Eroto being town are:

1. His "I think we lost" post (which I think is a scumtell, or at best a null tell - this is a massive reach on your part)
2. The fact that he's not your scumbuddy (which only you and he know for sure, so we can't be expected to just take your word for it)

There seems to be a common misconception that I voted for Shanba/Haut Boy without reason, and/or that I wanted to speedlynch him. On the contrary, I was reasonably certain that he was scum, and have become more certain of that as a result of the voting patterns since then. Initially I wanted to apply some pressure and gauge reactions, and as a result of those reactions I've decided to keep my vote where it is. If you want a good case against Eroto/Shanba then look at posts 587, 588, 594, 605 and 609. Very few of these points have been adequately addressed by anybody today.

Shanba: if you're planning on trying to get me lynched you may want to try making a case against me other than "he has to be scum because I'm not".

Confirm Vote: Shanba

[Erg0]

I'll take a page out of soupfly's book and wait for his promised response before I address these points.

[Erg0]

Ok, maybe this is going to be harder than I thought.

The reason I

initially

voted for TBS yesterday was his speedy vote on Oman on day 1. I thought there was most likely at least one scum on the wagon at the point when I voted for Oman, and the other most likely suspect (Niv) was dead and town by day 2. When Gator and Jimmy piled on and he didn't get speedlynched I became fairly certain that he actually was scum, hence the reason that I was eventually happy to lynch him in his absence.

Post 588: Here's why Haut Boy/Shanba is firmly at the top of my list: process of elimination. Jimmy R is semi-confirmed, soupfly doesn't look like scum based on TBS distancing himself from his wagon. That leaves Streeflo, Eroto and Haut Boy - two of those three

must

be scum based on the evidence. I think Haut Boy was clearly the scummiest of those three - do you disagree?

Streeflo and Eroto hardly interact with TBS on day 1, whereas Haut Boy is mentioned by TBS in several places as a second scum candidate without any meaningful follow-up. This looks like classic scum distancing to me, and I thought it warranted a first vote, since I would need at least one townie to agree with me for Haut Boy to get lynched. I don't think this was strong enough evidence to lynch, but I certainly think it's good enough for a first vote

because there were no better suspects to put my vote on

.

My main motivation for my vote was to prompt some reactions, since we seemed to be at a standstill at that point. Post 594 just adds to the argument - it's circumstantial evidence, but the fact that Haut Boy's suspicions were all against townies does strengthen the case against him.

Post 605 is intended to expose the inherent problem with Eroto's argument. I don't necessarily think that what he said was scummy, but it was certainly WIFOM.

On post 609:

All I'm trying to say is that people are overconfident in Haut Boy's scumminess. The only argument against him is that he's been inactive.

This is a massive misrepresentation of my vote. I

never, ever

said that Haut Boy's inactivity was scummy. I clearly based my vote on the analysis of his day 1 play that I posted earlier, but Eroto (and others) chose to ignore that and construct a strawman to argue against instead.

If you're going to vote for me I'd like for you to come up with something better than me placing the first vote on an inactive player, thus placing him in no danger of being lynched without another townie. I'm curious why you're so unsure about Streeflo by comparison, considering he made the second vote and actually put Haut Boy in quicklynch territory?

Also, please stop sucking up to Jimmy. He may be the most confirmed townie, but he doesn't have any special information and his opinion isn't any more valid than anyone else's, except to the extent that you can be fairly sure that he's not being deliberately deceptive. He thought there was merit to your meta and he was wrong, so there's no guarantee he'll be right about this either.

[Erg0]

Also, just to clear something up:

Ok. I re-read through Erotomachia's posts.

Early on I get a bit of a "sit on the sidelines" vibe from him which made me feel that he might be scum. Then, however, I came across this post:

I think we lost.

This, to me, fairly heavily indicates townie. It reminds me of when sometimes a townie thinks he has been lynched then says "bah. go town." I've never yet seen a scum do that.

Ok, my problem with Shanba: all of those arguments are based on the assumption that you're town. You may know that, but nobody else does. Your reasons for Eroto being town are:

1. His "I think we lost" post (which I think is a scumtell, or at best a null tell - this is a massive reach on your part)
2. The fact that he's not your scumbuddy (which only you and he know for sure, so we can't be expected to just take your word for it)

What I explained were my reasons for thinking he was town. Obviously I can't expect you to take the fact that he didn't vote me as confirmation of his townieness it was one of the things that factored in my thought process as a townie on who to lynch.

However, with regards to point one, I believe you are completely and utterly wrong. Why would it be a scumtell? I've explained that it's the sort of behaviour I would expect from a townie and all you have stated is "no it's not, it's a scumtell". I'm speaking from personal experience here, so if you wish to refute my point you will ahve to provide me with something a little stronger.

You compare Eroto's post with a "bah" post by a lynched townie, but this is not a valid comparison. A "bah" post comes after the townie is dead and will have their alignment confirmed. They have no further stake in the game and no reason to be anything other than honest, since the facts will soon be revealed anyway. They are also fully aware of what just happened, because they know their own alignment.

None of these points is true of Eroto in this situation. If you want to speak about comparable situations, I have seen scum place a vote on another scum after they're lynched to try and make themselves look better. I've seen scum say "I think we just lynched a townie" after just that has happened because they want to look like they're dismayed.

That's

why I think this is a scumtell. Even if you disagree, you have to agree that it would be completely WIFOM to say it was a town tell.

[Erg0]

Those two examples aren't meant to be comparable to each other, they're meant to be comparable to this game. My point is that scum will often do or say things after the lynch to try and appear pro-town, and that these things can take many forms. If every scum did the same thing after a lynch then it would be pretty easy to spot.

And you're missing (or ignoring) the other point of difference that I mentioned between your example and what happened here - the lynched townie in your example knows for a fact that a townie has just been lynched, and that the game is over for them. Eroto did not know this (unless he's scum), so there was no basis for a "bah" post. Any speculation on his state of mind is just that - speculation. I could equally say that it reads to me like scum who is trying to come off as a dismayed townie, and you can't prove me wrong. Hence, null tell (though I still find posts like that scummy based on experience).

[Erg0]

Erg0

I see what Soupfly is saying and it makes some sense. I'm still not convinced about his reasons for voting for Haut Boy/Shanba..he said he found him more scummy than Streeflo and Ero, which isn't a great reason as I don't think any of those 3 have been that scummy.

Ok, let me put it like this: I know almost certainly that at least one of those three is scum. The only other options are you and soupfly, and I've dismissed both of you as suspects for now based on reasons I've outlined above. I'm not saying that Haut Boy, Streeflo and Eroto are scummy, I'm just saying that they're the three possibilities that I'm left with. From there it's just a matter of deciding which of them is

most

scummy.

In other words, whether you or I find them scummy in and of themselves is irrelevant. By process of elimination I know that one of them is scum. I don't see what better reason I could come up with.

Continuing on from that, I'm noticing that very little attention is currently being paid to any posts prior to today. The first two days are full of valuable material, and focusing on today only will lead you astray. In my experience, the best scumtells are always found before the first scum is lynched.

[Erg0]

Feel free to ignore that discussion, then. I'm not going to let craplogic stand, especially when it's the main pillar of Shanba's belief in Eroto's innocence.

[Erg0]

I don't really know what Streeflo meant there, so he'll need to explain it further before I could comment. I'll admit that I can't really follow what he's saying right now. He did comment earlier that he thought it was a null tell, so I doubt this is the basis of his belief.

I won't argue for Eroto's post as a scum tell, since that's really down to where you've seen it used in the past and a judgement call on the person's mindset. It is certainly a null tell though, because it could just as easily be done by a genuine townie or deceptive scum. You say you think it fits a townie's mindset, but what if Eroto (as scum) expected you to think that, and deliberately made a statement that he thought would look pro-town? Hence, we descend into WIFOM and that argument becomes invalid.

Ultimately, it was a post that had no direct impact on the game (i.e. no votes or FoSes), and did not give an opinion on anything specific that might have had an impact on the future direction of the game. This is the perfect kind of pro-town post for scum to fake, because it can't come back to bite them in any way.

[Erg0]

A number of people have said they don't buy my case, but I'm definitely not seeing anything more convincing. I've also yet to find a better scumfinding method than looking at dead scum's relationship with the remaining players.

Having said that, the developments after my initial vote have given me some food for thought on the other two players in my list. I'm starting to wonder whether Streeflo was actually trying to get Shanba lynched based on the expectation that one of the town would jump on the wagon once there were a couple of votes, then jumped off quickly when he realised it wasn't going to happen. I don't see any other reason to unvote at the point he did - if a quicklynch was going to occur then it would have already happened. I also found his attempt to stifle discussion of Shanba's main town tell on Eroto in 660 a bit out of place.

[Erg0]

Shanba/Haut Boy are interchangeable for the purposes of this discussion. Stop arguing semantics.

[Erg0]

Whenever I say Shanba, you can substitute HautBoy if I'm talking about a period of the game pre-replacement. I just got tired of typing Haur Boy/Shanba every time. You're focusing on the wording and avoiding addressing the crux of the argument, which is that your second vote potentially put Haut Boy in a position to be quicklynched in absentia.

As for stifling discussion, I don't know where you're getting at. It contributes little in my point of view, and

if that is shanba's main town tell on Eroto, then he has no case at all.

(Bolding mine)

That's exactly why I stayed on the case.

If I disagree with a tell that someone is using to define a player's alignment then I will keep on it until I feel that the disagreement has been resolved. I wouldn't be much of a scumhunter if I wasn't persistent in my pursuit - I know you already agreed it was a null tell, but yours is not the only opinion that matters here.

[Erg0]

Shanba: what exactly do you mean about soupfly's position on TBS? He doesn't seem to have been too suspicious of him, but I'm looking more at TBS's position on soupfly, since that's more reliable in my eyes. Townies can be mistaken about someone, but scum (almost) always know the alignment of each person that they comment on.

Incidentally, I noticed in re-reading that soupfly says in 442 that the doctor (if there is one) should protect Jenter, who ended up being the scum's target that night. I can't see scum actively promoting the protection of their intended target. This is only a minor point, though, since it's so subject to WIFOM.

[Erg0]

My specifics on soupfly were in the posts that we've already discussed. TBS distanced himself from the soupfly wagon after voting him on day 1, which seemed like something that scum would do if they were caught wagonning a townie. Your point is valid, though it would just as easily be explained by a faulty scumdar on soupfly's part. Even so, I won't completely dismiss him as a possibility just yet.

To rephrase Eroto's question: if you've narrowed it down to either me or Streeflo (but not both), then by process of elimination soupfly must be the buddy of whichever of us is scum. So why aren't you voting for him?

[Erg0]

Shanba, you do realise that TBS weakly attacked your predecessor on day 1? In fact, that was the main reason that Haut Boy was on top of my suspect list based on TBS's actions. In effect, you're arguing against soupfly using the same case that I used on you - a case that you've already said you didn't really buy.

[Erg0]

Maybe if you ignore me I'll go away.

[Erg0]

I'm happy with my vote where it is. Shanba's defence has been solid, but nothing has happened post-replacement that would make me change my mind. We've got two days' worth of material before we got TBS, I'd suggest that people have another look at that.

[Erg0]

Agreed, I'm not comfortable with leaving it up to Jimmy. As I said before, his status only proves that he's not deliberately misleading us, but it doesn't make his opinion more right than any of the other townies. Certainly take what he says into account, but I'd prefer if everyone made up their own minds.

[Erg0]

@streeflo and erg0: how can you be so sure of shanba being scum?

I never said I was sure, he just has the greatest weight of evidence against him in my eyes. We've been over this for the last couple of pages, and there just isn't enough in Shanba's defence to change my mind on Haut Boy.

[Erg0]

I never said soupfly was the most pro-town either, I just said he was the least scummy of the four other players besides Jimmy.

[Erg0]

Soupfly, I'm having difficulty understanding why you've got me so close to Streeflo and Shanba at the moment. There seem to still be a number of misconceptions floating around regarding my play today. Let's recap:

I reconstruct the actions of our known scum for the first day (since he didn't post on day 2). Based on the available evidence, I find that Haut Boy/Shanba seems most likely to be his buddy. I then look at Haut Boy's play and find nothing to suggest that my initial conclusion is incorrect. Having explained both of these things, I place the first vote of the day on Haut Boy.

Nobody else seems to have built much of a case at this point, and seems more interested in waiting around for Haut Boy's replacement to show up while happily ignoring the previous two days' worth of evidence, which (in my opinion) will be more reliable than anything we get from a replacement. I don't recall ever pushing anyone else to vote for Haut Boy, I simply found him the most likely scum in the game so far and thus that's where I voted.

I've been attacked for not providing a case (I did), and for pushing a speedlynch (I didn't), but nobody has done anything that throws into doubt the evidence that I gathered from the first two days. In my experience, the posts before the first scum lynch are the best place to find links between scum, because that's where the scum are more likely to accidentally give themselves away. The main attack on my evidence is that it's not strong, which is probably true, but I've yet to see anything stronger. I certainly don't think that an "attempted speedlynch" on a player of unknown alignment is more valuable evidence than the play on day 1. Day 2 was a speedlynch, but that guy came up scum so those votes aren't a scumtell. The same may well apply here.

[Erg0]

I'm a bit bogged down, so I probably won't get back to this game until tomorrow. In the meantime,

Mod: Votecount please?

[Erg0]

Presumably to try to confuse us. Either that or we have a doctor after all. Or the last scum is setting himself up to fake a doctor claim.

Since we've got a free lynch, I can try out each of my suspects in order.

Vote: Erotomachia

[Erg0]

A few things off the top of my head:

You attacked TBS's plan fairly strongly on day 1, but voted Oman instead. I noticed that you were very cautious in putting your vote on Oman, asking the town's opinion first.

You weren't on either of the two scum wagons, and defended Shanba vigorously.

Shanba thought you were a townie based on very weak reasoning.

Throughout the early game, there's very little linking you to TBS or Zakk/Haut Boy. Haut Boy doesn't even mention you in his opening post. You comment on Zakk's lurkishness a few times, but almost always include a mention of another player (usually Langley). This is very similar to what I was seeing from TBS towards Haut Boy.

That's about it, I'd say. At this stage with two more lynches to go, it's more about deciding which player I

don't

want to lynch. There's enough evidence against you that you're not going to make it into that spot.

[Erg0]

It's wild speculation at this point, but another possible explanation for the lack of nightkill is a townie with NK immunity (either one-shot or permanent). I don't think that would unbalance the setup, given the lack of doc.

[Erg0]

It's more or less irrelevant at this stage anyway. I can't see why the scum would willingly give us an extra lynch, so I'm assuming that it's either a pro-town power role that we haven't found yet or a really strange gambit. Either way, it doesn't affect the play.

[Erg0]

I had a strong feeling that this was coming. I just can't give your claim any weight at this stage of the game because it would be so easy for you to set it up if you're scum, and there's absolutely no way to confirm whether you're telling the truth.

Having said that, I don't buy it. Trying to outguess the scum on night 1 would not be a good play, because a live vigilante is much more valuable than a live mason. In addition to that, if Jimmy died then it would have confirmed him and Gator as masons, which would have been an ok result if one townie had to die. Doctors don't take a chance like that on night 1, they protect the guy with the most important role. If I were the doc, I'd protect Jenter over Jimmy R 100 times out of 100.

Unfortunately, the smart play is not to lynch the claimed doctor with 5 players left and a mason still around, because if you're really a doctor you'll be NKed tonight anyway and tomorrow will be a lot easier than it would be if we lynched you. I'm just going to have to switch the order of the last two lynches.

Unvote

Dammit, I was hoping I wouldn't have to choose between soupfly and Streeflo.

[Erg0]

*cough*WIFOM*cough*

I don't think it's that unlikely, but I do think it's unlikely to succeed.

[Erg0]

Maybe, but it was pretty obvious whose head was on the block today. In Erotoscum's position I would have proceeded as if I were going to be lynched the next day unless something happened overnight to give the town pause.

[Erg0]

Ugh. I could flip a coin.

Vote: soupfly

Haut Boy seems to spend a lot of time focusing on him on Day 1 when he (soupfly) is in no danger of being lynched. I suspect Haut Boy decided to ignore TBS and pay attention to his other buddy in order to mix things up - it's rare that scum will ignore both of their partners completely when entering the game.

As my analysis on Day 3 showed, there's not that much to tell between them when looking at their relationship with TBS (barring the apparent distancing by TBS, though that's less relevant now that we have more to look at). Streeflo's quick jumps onto both scum wagons while souply was being wishy-washy also work in his favour. Other than that, either soupfly is scum playing badly or Streeflo is scum playing well.

Or, of course, Eroto is scum.

[Erg0]

I didn't see Streeflo's intervening post, just the one I replied to. Oh well, vote stil lstands right now.

soupfly, please be aware that I actually think that Eroto is more likely to be scum than you, but it makes more sense from a numbers perspective to clear the extra townie now. If you're a townie, you'll still win when we do.

[Erg0]

Judging by his last post, I think Jimmy's going to be away for a few days. No rush, though - I'm happy to let this sit until everyone's ready.

[Erg0]

I hate it when I'm right the first time and wrong the second time... seems to be happening a lot lately.

Ah well, let's see what tomorrow brings.

[Erg0]

Whut?

You're not serious...

[Erg0]

LOL, no I'm not.

Shame we screwed the setup by killing most of the power townies D1. Ah well, I thought that was a pretty decent comeback but the scum probably deserved to win in the end.

[Erg0]

Yeah I don't think the setup was particularly unbalanced, it just worked out badly because all of the power roles on the town side died. There could have been some interesting scenarios down the track if the vig and cop had still been around. Equally, if either TBS or Haut Boy/Shanba had been the daykiller then things would have been pretty different too.

The masons were definitely a big advantage to the town, if it weren't for them we would have been done by day 2 I think. I'm fairly happy with my scumhunting in this game, since I nailed two out of three, but I do think the scum deserved the win after we put ourselves in such a bad position.

[Erg0]

If anything, I probably didn't trust you enough. By the time we lynched soupfly I was almost certain he was town, but I didn't unvote because I thought you were the scum and we were just going through the motions. It wasn't until I thought about it overnight that I realised that you probably were telling the truth, but I thought we could still pull it out. Ah well.

[Erg0]

That was part of the case I had against you when deciding between you and soupfly, though I never put it in the thread.

[Erg0]

In practice, the scum daykill reveals the player as scum, and would only ever be used in endgame, or in a situation where the daykiller was certain to be lynched. With another vig present, there's no way the town would buy the idea of having a daykilling vig as well, so a fakeclaim wouldn't get the scum very far.

Given those limitations it's not quite as unbalanced as it first appears - it was really bad luck that the daykiller happened to be the last remaining scum, and if we'd gotten it right on day 4 then it wouldn't have even been a factor. If anything, I'd suggest adding the caveat that the daykill can't be used in endgame, or maybe adding a killproof townie to provide a possible counter for the town.

Having said that, I completely sympathise with Maz for the number that we did on his setup - I had almost exactly the same thing happen in a carefully balanced but role-heavy game I'm running on another site. By day 2, the tracker, doctor, back-up doctor and one-shot vig were all dead...

[Erg0]

BTW, I now understand why Oman kept telling me in Scumchat that I was awesome. I thought it must have just been an Aussie thing.

[Erg0]

Quite right, it was just general commentary on my awesomeness. It never occurred to me until now that it might have been related to this game in particular, because I tend not to question why someone is calling me awesome.

[Erg0]

Streeflo: In the end, I would have voted for you, though that wasn't how I felt at the time we lynched soupfly. Although a fakeclaim from Eroto seems likely in theory, I'm still yet to see anyone try something like that in practice. It just took me a little while to work my head around that after being almost sure he was scum at the start of day 4.

If you'd actually gone with a no kill, of course, I would have voted no lynch and forced you to kill someone (most likely me) regardless and reduce the pool of suspects.