In post 551, Eevee wrote:Possibly against the spirit of the game, but Porken’s replace out being very scum indicative lingers in my mind...
~Eva
That is fair. I did suspect Porkens (and I think I said so in this thread) as I was catching up. RCE's [lay simply proved me wrong, and I'm willing to bet the game on this one in particular.
You see, there are players I can read with a higher accuracy because they play more or less like me. I wouldn't have asked this in public as scum. I would have been way too cautious to draw attention to myself in that manner. I would have also paid attention to my own win con and I always try to look very reasonable as scum. RCE isn't a noob and he knows what's at stake.
But you know what? We can win one of 3 ways:
1- Double eliminate scum on D1/D2. I think this one is the hardest of our options. We first need to eliminate a red one today (that's the hard part) and if we do then we would have to choose correctly between the remaining 7 (after 5 get confirmed) which is statistically easier (2/7 is higher odds than 3/13)
2- Eliminate one red on D1/D2 and then another one on D3/D4. This is actually our best shot. With 1 Scum eliminated we get 5 confirmed townies, and with one townie eliminated we have SIX to eliminate from (2 of them are Mafia) and we only need ONE red elimination to win.
3- Eliminate no Scum on D1/D2 and then eliminate one on D3/D4. The difference here is we won't have any confirmations, so we will be hunting for 1 of 2 Scums in a pool of 10 players.
So, if you wish to go after RCE, be my guest. If he flips red and I go next, it'd actually be scenario 2. The problem is if he flips green it might lead to YOUR elimination next, and I'm not sure scum!you would be this aggressive over what I think is a void case.
So here's what I propose: Eliminate someone else, and then if we do have a red flip today we can eliminate RCE tomorrow if you insist. If he flips red we win outright and he flips green we are on course of the best scenario still.