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Post #154 (isolation #1) » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:50 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 136, catboi wrote:
Broadly speaking the vast majority of players aren't the type to claim miller as mafia, it takes a specific type of bold/risky player because most players tend to play scum rather passively. Meuh doesn't really fit into that archetype in my head and I'm inclined to believe her claim, her posting afterwards reads solidly town to me and I don't see reason to doubt that. pooky is closer to the type of player I could see doing a miller gambit as scum (i.e. more like me), but I think the way he's handled it with pressuring Meuh is
fine
and I wouldn't really push him for it right now.
I also think Bell's aggression out the gate and pressure toward elle is a good look and +town for him.
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Post #156 (isolation #2) » Sun Aug 27, 2023 10:56 am
Postby Dunnstral »
I like the analysis on what mafia wouldn't do with miller claims.
Not sure if this is relevant but I recently got out of a mini normal where town had 4 millers, a cop, and a backup cop. Mafia had an informed played that knew there were 4 millers, and a miller enabler. I was mafia in that game, none of us fake claimed miller.
In post 107, elle (1L) wrote:
in theory scum!pooky could have been informed there was a miller and cleverly asked prism for a miller fake claim during pregame to orchestrate as well
this post feels off to me, it's giving me vibes of speculating about something that you know didn't happen VOTE: elle
??? i don’t think it’s likely to have happened if that’s what you’re trying to say but doesn’t seem impossible to me and two millers claims is !!!
anyway i don’t know what happened so therefore i don’t know what didn’t happen regarding the millers
In post 151, elle (1L) wrote:
i still don’t really believe either of the miller claims for what it’s worth
This is a little unclear to me: Are you scumreading the millers separately, or together, and in 148 it looks like you are saying it is unlikely that pooky is fake claiming but you still doubt them.
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Post #177 (isolation #6) » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:34 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
Napkin thoughts: Millers town, catboi town, Bell town
Mafia within: elle (1L), Ydrasse, SirCakez, Guiltylion
This is a lot faster than I usually analyze things, but I already feel like I have things to read rather than the game being banter as it usually feels like.
In post 107, elle (1L) wrote:
in theory scum!pooky could have been informed there was a miller and cleverly asked prism for a miller fake claim during pregame to orchestrate as well
this post feels off to me, it's giving me vibes of speculating about something that you know didn't happen VOTE: elle
What you point out here makes me think of this post which was made by a member of the mafia in that game with 4 town millers and mafia having an informed role:
The thing that's really starting to annoy me is that people are acting as if all these Miller claims mean they MUST be Town.
Did it ever occur to anyone that Scum could be informed about there being one or more Millers in the game?
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Post #179 (isolation #8) » Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:46 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
Also napkin thoughts:
elle (1L) + Ydrasse, or elle (1L) + SirCakez for the scumteam, as post 146 quoted above does not seem like both mafia, and elle (1L) does seem the most suspect to me right now based on how I've seen mafia in this position act before.
Bell I know you are going to ask why I have you as town; I think catboi made a good point about your early aggressiveness leaning town
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Post #202 (isolation #9) » Sun Aug 27, 2023 1:46 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 182, elle (1L) wrote:
like guesses for scumteam bad because it’s assuming scum!me and this is how town!me acts in this situation because i’m town, shrug
if you’re town here what would help you to see that
You asserting yourself as town without showing how or why is not convincing to me. I guess my question to you is how is your play this game different from when you are mafia?
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Post #223 (isolation #10) » Sun Aug 27, 2023 2:49 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 220, elle (1L) wrote:
i think if one of pooky/meuh are a scums then odds of dunnstral also being a scums go up due to emphasis on millers normal
which made an announcement re:millers at gamestart importantly
In post 220, elle (1L) wrote:
i think if one of pooky/meuh are a scums then odds of dunnstral also being a scums go up due to emphasis on millers normal
which made an announcement re:millers at gamestart importantly
How does that make me more likely to be a scums?
slightly so to me as it felt like you’re saying played in millers game therefore two millers in this game more like by implication
Sure, but why is that more likely to come from scums me than towns me? I did play in that other game either way.
In post 182, elle (1L) wrote:
like guesses for scumteam bad because it’s assuming scum!me and this is how town!me acts in this situation because i’m town, shrug
if you’re town here what would help you to see that
You asserting yourself as town without showing how or why is not convincing to me. I guess my question to you is how is your play this game different from when you are mafia?
the how and why are my role pm and i can’t show you that; was not t
as mafia i think i probably just approach game entirely different and don’t find myself in this situation like my interactions are generally more chosen and on my terms i probably would not have been as excited to play so probably would have just leaned more towards waiting my anxiety manifests in different ways as a scums like it’s just everything
The first line here bothers me because it seemed like you were saying we should be able to determine you were towns earlier. But now you are saying it's something that can't be shown. Like post 168 you were willing to work through it.
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Post #231 (isolation #13) » Sun Aug 27, 2023 3:20 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 226, catboi wrote:
Neither of those seem like productive avenues of inquiry to me - even assuming it's true he hasn't fakeclaimed miller since then (and I don't doubt it), it doesn't really have any bearing on whether or not he'd do it this game. Again, I still lean more toward him being town right now.
I did a quick fact check and did not see any fake miller claims. I did see real miller claims.
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Post #235 (isolation #14) » Sun Aug 27, 2023 3:35 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
I took it to mean you could say: 'I am town because I am posting like X, and if I was mafia I'd post like Y.' Or something similar to that. That is the how and the why for me.
Look at what I am asking you in post 202 quoted above and the first line you wrote in response to that.
Looking back you do answer in the second part of your post, so I guess I simply had tunnel vision on the start of your post, as I considered it to be answering my 202.
So you are saying you would post less as mafia? If I am understanding correctly.
In post 192, Ydrasse wrote:
i think i would be confused if elle was mafia because it seems like it immediately got flustered by the first iota of pressure and i dont think that it is like at that low threshold of "attention on me in game must try to defuse" with as much like. urgency. as it posted with here.
it's possible i guess everyone has off moments but the entire sequence is just weird to me
what does being flustered by pressure have to do with alignment
i think that mafia are more likely to be it if they have less experience because they don't know how to make the right answers to make it go away
So town would be less likely to be flustered? Why do you think that makes them town, then?
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Post #240 (isolation #16) » Sun Aug 27, 2023 3:48 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
I don't think that will be very helpful for me so would feel guilty making you put in substantial effort to do so. If somebody else thinks this would be useful they can jump in.
I don't think it will be helpful because I don't put a lot of weight into saying you would do things differently when we are this early into the game, and you are the one describing things and there is bias there. I think that mafia fake claiming millers is unlikely, and despite what catboi says I do think a track record of not fake claiming miller makes it more likely to not be fake in this game as well. And meuh was the one who counter claimed so they took an active role and I agree with the thought that mafia are less likely to do so, especially when somebody else is already claiming that role. So that makes me think the millers are town, and your reaction to them reminded me of when I played the mini normal recently and the mafia made a similar argument against the miller claims.
And I also am reading catboi and bell as town, so that has me looking at Elle (1L), Ydrasse, SirCakez, and GuiltyLion. And you Elle (1L) are the one who has given the most content to discuss. I am not disregarding the 4 people I am townreading for the rest of the game, I do think it is a good place to start though.
@Dunn - I get that you like the post but you really believe that's sufficient for a townread? 177 and 179 reads as though you're POEing via your townreads and that feels kinda rote and simplistic. I don't think mafia is incapable of producing catboi's ISO so far
If Catboi is mafia they opened up by calling a lot of people town, including two people who claimed the same role. I think mafia would be more hesitant to do so and would want paranoia to remain there.
I guess my reasoning here isn't convincing to other people, but I wasn't really trying to convince other people, I was just giving my own thoughts
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Post #310 (isolation #21) » Mon Aug 28, 2023 2:38 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
I believe that Ydrasse is usually more charismatic as mafia early. Maybe. I feel like I make this argument a lot in games but I don't remember how that has went for me.
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Post #315 (isolation #24) » Mon Aug 28, 2023 2:52 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 312, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
Dunnstral do you want to be my paralegal and write up a summary of this Cakez/Ydrasse dumpster fire interaction
In post 259 SirCakez votes for Ydrasse with some reasoning.
In post 263 and 264 Ydrasse turns around and says SirCakez could be mafia with reasoning.
In post 289 SirCakez says that 263 is ridiculous and asks for the argument against their post 259
290-292 Sircakez is explaining their play around Pooky
293 Ydrasse calls the above touchy
295 Ydrasse asks what SirCakez means with responding to 259 and sort of gives an answer
297 Ydrasse says SirCakez treatment of Pooky is AI
298 SirCakez calls 295 scum point of view
In post 304 Ydrasse says that SirCakez is avoiding engagement with the actual content this game, including the miller claims
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Post #316 (isolation #25) » Mon Aug 28, 2023 2:57 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
Ydrasse points against SirCakez:
o Their vote put pressure on Ydrasse at a time when people were considering voting for Ydrasse
o Their interaction with Pooky is suspicious because they avoided talking about the miller claim to "get into the game", and they would do so as town
o They are being obtuse in their interaction with Ydrasse and missing the point on purpose, including misrepping what Ydrasse is saying
SirCakez points against Ydrasse:
o Their interactions with elle (1L) on page 8 are informed
o Their responses to SirCakez's questions are bad and Ydrasse would have better arguments as town
In post 316, Dunnstral wrote:
Ydrasse points against SirCakez:
o Their vote put pressure on Ydrasse at a time when people were considering voting for Ydrasse
o Their interaction with Pooky is suspicious because they avoided talking about the miller claim to "get into the game", and they would do so as town
o They are being obtuse in their interaction with Ydrasse and missing the point on purpose, including misrepping what Ydrasse is saying
SirCakez points against Ydrasse:
o Their interactions with elle (1L) on page 8 are informed
o Their responses to SirCakez's questions are bad and Ydrasse would have better arguments as town
In post 453, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
like gls thoughts on catboi exactly mirror my own. so they make sense to me. i just dont bother to question dflors townread cuz i think its tactically bad.
I do not think that it is unreasonable to not be swayed by Dunn's reasons. I wasn't. I still don't have a read on catboi.
It also did not bother me that he asked Dunn to explain the read, that is also reasonable. My issue was where GL went after that.
It did not read to me, like GL was trying to divine if Dunn's read was a plausibly genuine read or not, and therefore whether having that read was scummy or not. At least, I did not see anything about that coming from GL's posts following Dunn's explanation.
Instead, it seemed like he pivoted into trying to convince Dunn not to have that read. And he was not even arguing that Cartboi is scum. Just that Dunn should not have a town read because it is
possible
for scum to replicate it.
I don't see why a townie would actually care if Dunn has a day 1 town read on Catboi, especially one Dunn openly said he is not married to
Spoiler:
I am not disregarding the 4 people I am townreading for the rest of the game, I do think it is a good place to start though.
But there is scum motivation to stop people from forming too many town reads.
I agree and also your slot was doing the same thing in 244. I remember feeling like I was being badgered and didn't really know why people kept questioning my read on Catboi that they obviously don't agree with.
In post 482, catboi wrote:
Still feels like there's probably a scum between Luke and GL but it's not something that needs immediate resolution in my opinion.
Why do you have the two of us grouped together in this thought?
I agree with catboi thinking this. My own thoughts on this game right now are 1 between your slot and Gl, and 1 between ydrasse and SirCakez. If you are town Gl is more likely in my mind, and ydrasse/SirCakez is admittedly poe. Leaning more towards SirCakez.
Looking at potential partner interactions, I see posts 337 and 361. Along with post 321. In post 430 Gl seems to be suspecting Luke, catboi, and me. I don't see any mention of their read on SirCakez besides asking me what I thought of it
In post 436, Lukewarm wrote:
Your line of questioning with Dunn did not appear to lead to you voicing any thoughts on Dunn's alignment wrt his Catboi read, nor did you seem to argue that Catboi was scum. It was just "but scum catboi COULD do that too, so you should not town read him." And that being the where that conversation led, left me with that impression.
I also, just, in general do not trust that sort of argument as genuine, because it seems to set a precedent that in order to think someone is more likely to be town, you must believe that their actions could not be replicated. And that is a very silly bar to set for town reads.
on this - I don't think I really had a lot of substantial thoughts on Dunn's alignment, at least not worth sharing. I felt most of his reads seemed artificial and formulaic, outside of when he had the same take as I did on Ydra. That's what is kinda hanging me up as I don't see the scum motivation for that read if Ydra is town, and the fact that he had the same reasoning regarding her scum meta felt mindmeld-y. but the catboi read was concerningly easy and I was trying to suss out to what degree he actually believes in it. I also generally don't like that he seemed reluctant to put down a vote on Cakez
I've been unsure of how to feel re:catboi as well but assuming you're telling the truth here I am thinking he's probably mafia
You quoted me giving a summary of Ydrasse and SirCakez. Nowhere in the post you had quoted did I suggest that I wanted to vote SirCakez
In post 316, Dunnstral wrote:
Ydrasse points against SirCakez:
o Their vote put pressure on Ydrasse at a time when people were considering voting for Ydrasse
o Their interaction with Pooky is suspicious because they avoided talking about the miller claim to "get into the game", and they would do so as town
o They are being obtuse in their interaction with Ydrasse and missing the point on purpose, including misrepping what Ydrasse is saying
SirCakez points against Ydrasse:
o Their interactions with elle (1L) on page 8 are informed
o Their responses to SirCakez's questions are bad and Ydrasse would have better arguments as town
what are your thoughts about a Cakez vote?
And I don't think the post you quoted is showing suspicion on SirCakez.
I think you used my response to you asking if I would vote SirCakez as your reason to point towards me suspecting SirCakez after the fact, which doesn't make sense.
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Post #574 (isolation #35) » Thu Aug 31, 2023 6:22 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 571, Bell wrote:
It'd be nice if I knew the first thing about law. youtube videos are not helpful, or the ones I watch aren't terribly so.
Stages of trial and so on.
Been nice reading about some of the cases.
Though, I'm, not really sure how they caught the dude that lit that ship on fire. He could just deny it, unless there was some sort of alibi issue with the rest of the people on board. But it sounds slike some people died in that fire.
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Post #579 (isolation #36) » Thu Aug 31, 2023 7:01 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 576, Bell wrote:
I think you're developing reads more openly than you usually do on day one, I'd like to know why.
Yes this is true. I feel I have more to go off of this game, more meaningful information due to the 2 claims and having 2 townreads aside from that. Since it is a micro there are less players so that is more meaningful as well.
The reason I don't usually give reads early is that usually the early game feels like banter and/or talking in circles about the same points. And this game developed differently IMO.
In post 179, Dunnstral wrote:
elle (1L) + Ydrasse, or elle (1L) + SirCakez for the scumteam, as post 146 quoted above does not seem like both mafia, and elle (1L) does seem the most suspect to me right now based on how I've seen mafia in this position act before.
In post 310, Dunnstral wrote:
I believe that Ydrasse is usually more charismatic as mafia early. Maybe. I feel like I make this argument a lot in games but I don't remember how that has went for me.
@Dunn re:548- the combination of these two posts, not the one I quoted, is what made me think you should be voting Cakez if you were acting on your reads
I didn't post "hm, Dunn seems like he should be scumreading/voting Cakez, but he's not, I'm going to ask him about whether he'd vote Cakez to test him" ahead of time because that would obviously shape any reaction or post that I got from you
I was thinking about voting Elle at this point in time, though I didn't voice that and I wasn't voting because I didn't want to push them close to an elimination too fast.
Post 179 should point out as much.
It is true that thinking Ydrasse is more towny made me think SirCakez is more scummy, though. I'm confused about the post you quoted when asking me my read, I guess.
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Post #608 (isolation #38) » Fri Sep 01, 2023 11:10 am
Postby Dunnstral »
catboi you have paragraphs for why you suspect other people which I read and seems pretty convincing to me. Except for the part where you say we should eliminate "regardless of alignment" - that part I am not a fan of. And then you have sentences for me, saying poe, which doesn't even make sense if you have two other, better scumreads, and then "overlooked" which is based on what other people are doing.
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Post #617 (isolation #40) » Fri Sep 01, 2023 11:24 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 600, Ydrasse wrote:
after literally just playing against me as mafia feel like he should be more aware that this isnt my mafia game and also p sure he made a post earlier where hes like "when do i not have passion as a wolf" or something and like i can think of multiple times before where hes in fact been "down" or lower energy in games when it was beneficial so it's a nonpoint.
catboi, what do you think of this? Do you think it is a fair assessment?
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Post #657 (isolation #43) » Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:38 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
It was a different setup. It was pick your power, an open setup, and mafia had the informed mafia, meaning that if tracker had slipped through, mafia would have been aware of it and could safely fake claim it. In addition, marci could have picked jailkeeper if they were mafia and claimed tracker. Or they could have simply picked tracker and still have been mafia.
This game is a constructed setup, so the mod puts the roles in and it's not random. Certain roles are more likely to be given to the town than the mafia, and vice versa. Tracker is a possible provable role. But most importantly, at mass claim it will become more or less clear what alignment you are based on what everyone else claims. This is the element that was missing from PyP.
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Post #658 (isolation #44) » Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:41 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
If we get to mass claim and nobody else claims an investigative role, you are more likely to be town. If there is a strong investigative role, you are more likely to be mafia. That element was not present in PyP so Marci never self resolved.
In post 613, catboi wrote:
As for the "regardless of alignment" thing - it's partly salty on my part, no way around it, but it's also a theory I have. I think when a town player is really overconfident and trying to aggressively steer the game, they're usually wrong and usually harmful. On self-reflection, that's where all my worst moments come from. I've witnessed other players run games into the ground by being ego-driven and steamrolling everyone who opposed them. I think GL is tipping close to that in terms of how he's handling me. (Luke also does this but like I can't really suggest policy killing him because I think he's probably town)
Is this something that you are claiming that I am doing this game (but you cant kill me cause Tracker)?
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Post #805 (isolation #47) » Sat Sep 02, 2023 5:00 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
Anyways, Bell I don't agree with your point that having a negative reaction to something is a "choice" that someone has made rather than being a reaction.
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Post #861 (isolation #52) » Mon Sep 04, 2023 1:51 am
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 830, SirCakez wrote:
But also the more I think about it idk if Prism if enough of a troll to put two millers in one game and that means there's probably scum in there
Blegh
For the sake of not being prodded but also not really having anything to say, I'm going to point out that it is not really "troll" to have two millers in a setup, but rather simply unexpected.
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Post #872 (isolation #54) » Mon Sep 04, 2023 11:56 am
Postby Dunnstral »
If you are suspecting me for that reason, me having a lot of thoughts at the beginning has to do more with how the game unfolded than me playing different than usual.
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Post #876 (isolation #55) » Mon Sep 04, 2023 12:16 pm
Postby Dunnstral »
In post 874, Bell wrote:
So you think Ydra is the most likely to be scum?
Why are going with "I'm not impressed" as your reasoning here? In addition why aren't you afraid of outting another PR, or do you doubt that Lukewarm is one given your narrow pool?
I am looking at 600, 601, 611, and 612 and decided I didn't really think it was a town argument vs being performative
And I've become less convinced that GL/SirCakez are mafia
As for 'outting another PR', I don't feel comfortable voting for any of the players who have claimed today (Pooky, Meuh, Lukewarm, Rh9 slot)