PIRATES v. NINJAS! Game Over!

[Thesp]

/confirm

[Thesp]

I'm seriously pondering whether or not it'd be worthwhile to force everyone into claiming whether they are a pirate or a ninja.

I don't want to see anyone random voting from this point on - it's now unnecessary/unhelpful.

[Thesp]

Vote: Thesp. As proven with Luke Skywalker and the opening text, there are those who are niether.

I am troubled/saddened by the fact that you were so blatant about this.

[Thesp]

I like Guardian's line of thought re: Iammars.

3- Confirming with a "Yar, captain" is not a pirate/ninja/whatever tell. Pirates are cool, even if they are scum in this game. I was planning to do my opening vote similarly, but cicero's and Guardian's posts gave me a better and less random idea.

I'm not sure your minor anecdotal evidence can purely discount the pirate-speak as a potential scum-tell. Scum-tells aren't

exclusively

done by scum, they are

more often

done by scum than by town. I want to see where this goes.

Interesting that you ignored the apparent double kill here...

I find it more interesting that you bring it up. What would someone connected to a kill have to gain by intimating fewer deaths on N1?

I find the gorrad wagon mildly interesting.

Vote: Iammars.

[Thesp]

I'm glad that claus pointed out the 'neck cut' as the pirate death... Looking at it, I have to say that it's just as possible that ninjas would slice someone as that they would beat someone up. I guess that it depends on the ninja.

How is this helpful right now?

Thesp- I guess I'm using 'burden of proficiency' here, but I doubt that someone as amazing as strategy as you would make such a slip and 'not realize' that everyone wasn't pirate or ninja. Even less likely is that you would think, as town, that intentionally doing that would *work* though.

I'm not sure what you mean - if the town plays along, and acts as though it's feasible and worthwhile, it may have tripped up a one or two scum who would think that non-pirate/ninjas were abnormal. I saw no harm in trying, and I thought I would get useful reactions (which I think I got).

Perhaps I'm missing something.

[Thesp]

Why not, hasdgfas?

[Thesp]

Why not, hasdgfas?

Why not what?

Why is it not sufficient to vote? (What Guardian said after my post.) PPE: Sarnath'd by Mgm.

Thesp:
Yes, I'm aware of that.
However, for town to play along, they would have had to have fake claimed scum.

Right?

And then, after town fake claims scum, to 'play along', even if regular scum 'slips', how would you be able to distinguish between the two?

It would add confusion, not remove it.

Here is a possible super-awesome-ideal claim-world fantasy Thesp had, which in no way involves town lying:

Town: Bob, you go first.
Bobninjascum: I'm a pirate!
Johnninjascum: I'm a pirate as well!
Towndude: I'm neither.
Othertowndude: I'm neither also.
Otherscumdude: Uh, I'm neither, too!
Yetanothertownsperson: Neither here!
Everyoneelse: Neither! Woo!
...
Hey, that's odd, what's up with the two pirates? Isn't this pirates & ninjas mafia? (lynch lynch)

I suspected it'd never actually make it to claiming time, and I figured the reactions I'd get either way would be worthwhile (and I feel I'm right). There are other concerns out there (notably what Thok alludes to), and the possibility that non-pirates-or-ninjas claimed before scum do and scum simply follow suit, but I felt the gains outweighed the possible risks.

I see where people are coming from on the Iammars wagon, but I think it's kind of weak reasoning. FoS: Iammars. Iammars, thoughts?

Admits it's weak reasoning, but FOSes him anyway, I can see this as going along with the general crowd, and maybe to put more pressure on Mars. But he already has 6 votes, I want to hear from him again before maybe voting him.

I was thinking something similar - this looks like a scum link here, especially when Gorrad follows it up with...

As for Mars, he's getting a good number of votes while he's not at his computer. The logic behind his bandwagon is the biggest tell I've seen in the game so far, so normally I'd vote him, but I'd rather give him a chance to say his peace than add one more vote to the list of ones he gets while not able to explain himself.

We can lynch Gorrad tomorrow. Iammars is for today.

[Thesp]

We can lynch Gorrad tomorrow. Iammars is for today.

Am I missing something important from the reasoning against Mars? All I can see is that he confirmed in pirate speak, which may imply that he is a Ninjascum who thought that the Pirates are the town and the Ninja's are the scum, which is possible I suppose, but I think it's much more likely that he did it just for a joke.

Why do you think it's "much more likely" he did it as a joke?

[Thesp]

We can lynch Gorrad tomorrow. Iammars is for today.

Am I missing something important from the reasoning against Mars? All I can see is that he confirmed in pirate speak, which may imply that he is a Ninjascum who thought that the Pirates are the town and the Ninja's are the scum, which is possible I suppose, but I think it's much more likely that he did it just for a joke.

Why do you think it's "much more likely" he did it as a joke?

Ochkam's Razor. It's a much simpler explaination, and therefore in my eyes, the more likely.

How is it a "much simpler explanation"? And I'm not sure there is

ceteris parabis

here, which is necessary for Occam's Razor to obtain.

It occurs to me that you could try to swing Occam's Razor at nearly

any

tell - e.g.

A:

"Sorry to see Enrique die last night"

B:

"FOS:

A

, more likely to have had something to do with Enrique's death."

A:

"Nuh-uh, Occam's Razor, I just noticed his death and commented on it."

In summation, you are making things up to justify your hunch/lie/guess.

[Thesp]

I kind of see Jordan's point here, though he may not have expressed it in the best way. Seeing Mars' "Yar" as scummy requires a lot of assumptions to be made about the setup, none of which we can be particularly confident of being correct.

This is a decent point, which was not at all what JordanA24 is saying. Note that it doesn't require a bazillion assumptions about the setup, just that there is a group of scum who are ninjas, and who are not comprised of pirates (and are otherwise unaware of what other roles might be out there before N1), which currently seem very, very reasonable to make.

By the way, Iammars, are you a pirate?

[Thesp]

This is a decent point, which was not at all what JordanA24 is saying. Note that it doesn't require a bazillion assumptions about the setup, just that there is a group of scum who are ninjas, and who are not comprised of pirates (and are otherwise unaware of what other roles might be out there before N1), which currently seem very, very reasonable to make.

You realize, of course, that I've hinted that I'm uncomfortable with making one of the assumptions you've suggested.

Yes, which I've alluded to - I'm awaiting Iammars's pirate/non-pirate claim first. It's also partially why I don't think you should be allowed anywhere near the endgame. (I admit it's early to commit to this line of thought.)

Also, the argument against Iammars' comment being a ploy requires that he deliberately makes a post to try to confuse us, but doesn't ponder the possibilities of the set-up in order to determine whether or not it's a good idea. That seems a bit convoluted and the analysis of "it's just a joke" is much more reasonable.

I'm not sure how much complication this adds - I could easily conceive of ninja-scum thinking, "Oh, I'd better act piratey!"

There's also at least a third explanation for Iammars' comment, although I believe Thesp realizes that.

Yes, if I'm thinking what you're thinking. Otherwise, there's a fourth explanation out there.

What exactly leads you to putting Iammars before Gorrad?

Largely (though not entirely), I think Iammars's alignment tells us more about Gorrad's than Gorrad's does about Iammars.

[Thesp]

I agree that he hasn't been abused by the mod - that was my point in the first place. Once you eliminate that possibility, the alternative theory would be that he made what seems to me like an unreasonably large leap of logic and tried to clear himself with a wild guess at flavour during the confirmation stage. I don't subscribe to this theory.

Consider this hypothetical thought process:

I am in a game called pirates v. ninjas.
-->In this game, pirates oppose ninjas.
I am ninja scum
There is a town, and I as scum oppose them.
-->Pirates are town.

You consider that to be an unreasonably large leap of logic?

In the context of this game, yes it is. It's common knowledge that Stoofer's games always have a twist, Mars would have to be a raging moron to make such a baseless assumption.

I don't see how "Stoofer's games have a twist" invalidates the hypothetical thought process. At all.

Thirdly, since Thesp asked nicely, I will claim pirate/not pirate. I'm not a pirate. However, I'm not too familiar with my character, so I'm not 100% sure.

This feels very weasel-y. Happy with my vote.

His piratey confirmation. It was a weak tell, but still the biggest I'd seen in the first few pages. I'm satified with his explanation, though, so I'm back to no leads so far.

What other explanation would you have expected? "Aw, shucks, you got me"?

You say that Iammar's alignment tells us about Gorrad. Why? That flew completely over my head.

Please re-read Gorrad in the context of IammarsScum, then in the context of IammarsTown, and I suspect you'll get quite a different read.

[Thesp]

In any event, Thesp, could you provide a more detailed analysis of this Iammars-Gorrad connection?

Perhaps later.

Mostly this is a matter of tone, as I think Thesp is being stubborn and dense but townish

I think this is the first time I've ever been called "dense" in a mafia game.

Also, I don't want people to skirt responsibilities by insinuating that day one lynches need practically no standard to uphold. That's crap.

I like Thok's air of secrecy.

[Thesp]

His piratey confirmation. It was a weak tell, but still the biggest I'd seen in the first few pages. I'm satified with his explanation, though, so I'm back to no leads so far.

What other explanation would you have expected? "Aw, shucks, you got me"?

By the way, Iammars, are you a pirate?

Now, I might be looking into this too much, but isn't your second quote here directly contradicting the first? The fact that you asked him if he was a pirate leads me to think yes, there WERE other ways he could claim. Otherwise you wouldn't have asked him that. I saw you ask him, and thought 'Oh, he's trying to trick someone again. I'd better not screw it up.' So I FoS'd to try and help.

So you weren't really suspicious of him in the first place, is this what you're saying? (Please correct me if I'm wrong here.)

[Thesp]

Is this really so difficult to understand? Stoofer's reputation as a mod who likes to do things that are a bit "different" is likely to make players more cautious about drawing quick assumptions regarding flavour early in the game. If we discard the theory that Mars was misled by his PM (which I believe that we already have) then the alternative theory is, as Guardian said, that he got his Ninja PM and immediately concluded that pirates must be the town, hence he tried to pass himself off as a pirate. Given Stoofer's style, it would be obvious to almost anyone (certainly to an experienced player like Mars) that this would not be a safe assumption to make before the first night scene has even been posted. Basically, your theory relies on Mars making an assumption that he would have to be an idiot to make.

Let me put it this way: if you'd received a PM saying "you are a ninja", would

you

immediately assume that the pirates were the good guys? Even if you made that assumption, would you stake your life in the game on it by playing the role in your confirmation post? I doubt you could truthfully answer yes to both of those questions, so your case rests on the assumption that Mars is much,

much

dumber than you.

I seriously don't know why this is so difficult to grasp. I think you're both far too in love with your theory to wrap your head around the basic problem with your assumptions.

I disagree with so, so many of the assumptions you are making here.

I wasn't very suspicious, no. I understood were people were coming from, but the basis of the wagon was so weak that I figured it had to be a trap I would be interrupting again by pointing out. I never intended to vote for him.

I don't believe this for a moment. I hope a vig has good sense and kills you dead tonight.

[Thesp]

I'd argue that my theory is based on far fewer and simpler assumptions than yours.

I'd argue you're wrong. So there.

I'll try a hypothetical: if you were in the position that you believe Mars to be in, would you have done the same thing that you believe he did? Why or why not?

I don't know, nor can I know.

[Thesp]

Is that because you don't know his situation, or because you don't know how you'd behave in his place?

The latter. (The former is presumed in the question, is it not?)

[Thesp]

Now I'm wondering how, if you don't know how you'd behave in the situation you posit, you can reasonably draw a conclusion on Mars' situation based on his behaviour. Do you feel that you know him so well that you're able to draw such a conclusion based on a single word?

BECAUSE THAT'S HOW WE PLAY MAFIA. That is my best guess as to

why

he said what he said. I can't know how I would have reacted in such a spot, even if I have a couple of guesses as to the answer, because I wasn't there. However, seeing a reaction (or a phenomena, if we want to make this all scientifical and empirical), it's perfectly reasonable to ask what underlying motivation is most consistent with such a phenomena, and/or whether such phenomena is more likely to be indicative of a particular underlying motivation. While it is nearly impossible to "know" a conclusion in these circumstances, it is quite common (and good play) to have best guesses at these conclusions and run with them.

It's one thing to say I don't know how I would act in such a circumstance, and it's significantly different to say I am thus incapable of determining the significance of how someone

did

act. It doesn't follow.

Seriously man, you're assuming that I assumed something about the setup in a Stoofer game? I joined this game just to be surprised by what Stoofer comes up with. Besides, I learned to stop outguessing the mod with no information when I became a mod myself.

THIS IS NOT ABOUT OUTGUESSING THE MOD. No one is suggesting you gave this much thought - especially since it was just a confirmation post.

That's precisely why the thought process could be there - it's just a quick check-in with unusual flavor to it.

It also seems less likely that someone would have a non-pirate role and confirm with pirate flavor if they weren't trying to throw someone off in some way.

I'm a Hale and Hardy person. I think I can stand your disbelief, especially seein' as how I have nothing more to say on the matter.

If you're going to claim, claim all out. Stop piddling around.

Guardian, please explain the Thok<->Thesp link. Don't you think it's a little bit early to be drawing those kinds of conclusions?

This is wrong for several reasons.

This made like 1000 alarm bells ring in my head. My first game on this site had Thesp scum. Thesp scum refused to respond to stuff, said he'd do it later, and when he encountered something inconvenient would just be like "oh I'm not gonna explain this" -- "why is not explaining stuff bad"?

Have I ever done this as town, or is the exclusive domain of ThespScum?

I am beginning to get the suspicion that most of the scum are likely to be the people who haven't been part of the posting diarrhea, and are lurking. I also have a sneaking suspicion that he's likely town as well, based on something he said.

Unvote: Iammars.

Still not happy with Gorrad, though admittedly my suspicions of him being protective-scum for Iammars are subsided.

Thesp: asking for a vig to kill someone, when one vig is already dead?

I do find it noteworthy that you are acutely aware of who has died.

FOS: Skruffs.

Small, but notable.

Both: both of your suggestions make the assumption that scum would post without any foresight or consideration whatsoever.

How many people were dead during confirms?

Also:

Did a quick reskim. I see why people think Gorrad is suspicious now, but I don't think he'll get my vote for it. Maybe later. I think Guardian and Thesp look pretty pro-town, and TSQ gives me a good feeling, as opposed to my first impression. Thok still looks clean too. I don't have anything bad against Claus either.

I guess the only ones that I really suspect are Gorrad, Iammars, and the lurker populous.

I really don't think the evidence is all that much stronger than the suspicions against Gorrad. Still, it's probably better than the case against Iammars. But I honestly don't see any kind of scum connection between Thesp and Thok.

unvote, vote Thesp

Huh? I think I missed something here.

[Thesp]

Sorry for the lack of posting in the past few days, I'll try to post after the Ticket to Ride tournament we're hosting today.

[Thesp]

Guardian, please explain the Thok<->Thesp link. Don't you think it's a little bit early to be drawing those kinds of conclusions?

This is wrong for several reasons.

Yeah? And I am suppose to take your word for that?

I don't care whether you do or not - in fact, you probably shouldn't. You should rethink whatever assumptions you have about this, and why at least one person thinks you're very wrong. Perhaps its a simple disagreement, but one of us is likely wrong or deceptive. (I suspect it's the former.)

This made like 1000 alarm bells ring in my head. My first game on this site had Thesp scum. Thesp scum refused to respond to stuff, said he'd do it later, and when he encountered something inconvenient would just be like "oh I'm not gonna explain this" -- "why is not explaining stuff bad"?

Have I ever done this as town, or is the exclusive domain of ThespScum?

Not that I've seen. Show?
Any response to anything else?
Or are the rest true?

I can dig through old games later, I don't feel like it right now. Generally, I feel at the very least that there are valid reasons for town to hide things (as I'm sure you do as well), and sometimes there are times when it's better not to explain things (or at the least that such explanations are unhelpful). If I showed you town instances of this, would you think this argument to be poor, then? Also, what do you mean by "Any response to anything else? Or are the rest true?"

I am beginning to get the suspicion that most of the scum are likely to be the people who haven't been part of the posting diarrhea, and are lurking.

Why do you think this?

I got the sneaking suspicion that the most vocal/central players were town, and that the scum didn't feel like getting in the limelight (and didn't need to).

Thesp:
Why is looking at the roles of dead players "scummy", but directing power roles isn't?

Because scum are more likely to pay careful attention to the roles of those who are died - they're not surprised by

who's

dead, but by what they are. Also, scum are slightly less likely to vaguely direct power roles in my experience, though I know you certainly can't take my word at that.

Based on you fossing me, and talking about the vig that is already dead, I am guessing that you are setting yourself up to claim that you hadn't looked at the day scene, and thus didn't know any of that..

1. Poisoning the well?
2. "the vig"? Why the defiite article?

If we want to use confirmation posts as scumtells, why hasn't anyone brought up mbf's post where he said he would enjoy playing with mbl?

I don't know what it indicates - it might indicate something, but it's beyond my grasp.

The only person here who's hunting skills I personally respect is Thesp, and he's playing horribly.

I appreciate the compliment, though I respectfully disagree with your assessment of my play in this game.

Finally had time for that reread, but it's actually something that happened after my last post that grabbed me.

Vote: Guardian

Apparently what was actually needed to convince him was a bunch of other people agreeing with me. Very sudden turn on the Iammars issue.

I like this post.

I feel very comfortable with a Thesp wagon, but as we draw closer I wonder about the wisdom of a Thesp lynch.

Are you saying you want me pressured, but not

really

pressured?

Also, does anybody actually feel TSQ's reaction to my vote on him was a protown reaction? He fairly clearly tried to frame my vote in convoluted ways in an attempt to discredit it.

I've not been comfortable with the hostility he's presented in this game, but while I think it's unhelpful, I don't think it helps indicate his alignment.

The fault here is that he assumed Iammars was scum when the same line of reasoning can be applied with a different starting point. Let me demonstrate:
1. I am in a game called pirates v. ninjas
2. In the game pirates oppose ninjas
3. I'm pirate town.
4. There is a scum opposing the town.
5. Ninjas must be scum.

See? The same line of reasoning applies just fine with other assumptions.

We fixed that potential argument by asking Iammars if he was a pirate. He said he was not. Try again.

I'm still contemplating whether or not it would be worthwhile to force pirates and ninjas to claim, understanding the caveats there. I am going to defer that contemplation for the moment, I suppose it's too gambity now.

I'm seriously disliking Mgm. I still seriously like Gorrad.

Blah Blah Block #3: Or who takes early Day 1 seriously

I think there's a argument to be made that Day 1 is the most important day in the game.

Vote: Gorrad.

[Thesp]

1. Thesp has been pressing a bandwagon on very poor points.

2. Thesp is pushing massclaiming. I cannot see any advantage to this that outweighs the disadvantage of having our most potent powerroles picked off.

3. Thesp is a very experienced player, and as such the only reason I can fathom why he'd be so opportunistic and weak-reasoned is if he was scum. I said before, I expected more from him. Also, in your last post, you didn't mention a single point against me, but still voted me at the end. Honestly, it seems you're covering your bases in case another bandwagon starts up while trying to not look like votehopping scum

I disagree as to (1). I thought the points were worth examining.

I disagree as to (2) - I have pondered part-claiming, but in no way have I asserted (or think it's wise) for us to mass role-claim or even mass name-claim. Can you point out where I favored this, or can you retract (2)?

Since (3) is largely a re-hash of (1) and (2) with the added, "He's a good player, so why do I think he's playing bad?" Since I disagree as to (1) and (2), I could not assent to (3) either.

I also refuse to make this solely a you-me contest - it's not productive or helpful.

EDIT: I see Thok beat me to the punch re: (2).

I meant I wanted you to respond to the rest of my post http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 405#907405

I disagree with your assessment, and I don't see what's worth "respond[ing] to". Defenses are overrated anyway.

Why did you get that suspicion? It seemed like you got it when active players started to vote for you.

I do agree as to the coincidence of that timing - for me it coincided with the time when you and I were particularly vocal, and it seemed like there was a lot of sound and fury about people whom I was beginning to think were more likely to be pro-town. It feels like to me there are a lot of players in this game who

still

have not made significant contributions (which I think indicates at least a slightly stronger indication for scum), and I am sensitive to your earlier suggestion that D1 not exceed 20 pages.

Why dislike MGM? And what do you mean by like/dislike? You dislike MGM but like Gorrad -- this means you find Gorrad suspicious but not MGM?

Ack, typo, it should read "I still seriously dislike Gorrad as well.". Clarification: I think Gorrad and Mgm are both significantly more likely to be scum than most other players in this game.

Guardian, what do you think about Gorrad? What do you think about Mgm?

The fault here is that he assumed Iammars was scum when the same line of reasoning can be applied with a different starting point. Let me demonstrate:
1. I am in a game called pirates v. ninjas
2. In the game pirates oppose ninjas
3. I'm pirate town.
4. There is a scum opposing the town.
5. Ninjas must be scum.

See? The same line of reasoning applies just fine with other assumptions.

We fixed that potential argument by asking Iammars if he was a pirate. He said he was not. Try again.

The very same applies to the non-ninja non-pirate roles.

Can you show me how? Presume it's not obvious to me.

[Thesp]

How did you edit a post?

Dadgum the typos - it should read "PPE" instead of "EDIT", though that's not entirely accurate either, as I typed as I was reading through the thread. (The prior post was not actually edited.) I swear I'm going to figure out how to use this fancy-shmancy online bulletin board thingy one day.

[Thesp]

Well, I differ with you greatly, and I'm not going to be quiet about it. Especially your not being able to do as Erg0 suggested and put yourself in Iammars shoes -- I find it hard to believe you have such limited imaginative powers.

I

did

put myself in Iammars's shoes, and came up with a different conclusion/possibility than you did. I suspect "limited imaginative powers" could arise from your conclusion as well, but it would be insulting and unnecessary. I think this is an area where rational people can be of differing minds on a subject. Do you?

Why did you get that suspicion? It seemed like you got it when active players started to vote for you.

I do agree as to the coincidence of that timing - for me it coincided with the time when you and I were particularly vocal, and it seemed like there was a lot of sound and fury about people whom I was beginning to think were more likely to be pro-town. It feels like to me there are a lot of players in this game who

still

have not made significant contributions (which I think indicates at least a slightly stronger indication for scum), and I am sensitive to your earlier suggestion that D1 not exceed 20 pages.

What do you mean by sensitive? The word is ambiguous in its connotation.

I appreciate where it comes from, and think it wise. I think it impossible to achieve now, but I think that two to four monopolizing the conversation is unproductive in many, many ways (some of which cicero has hit upon). (And yet I'm doing it anyway. Curses, me!)

Guardian, what do you think about Gorrad? What do you think about Mgm?

I haven't seen a centralized case on Gorrad that convinces me of anything about his alignment, and think much of the wagon on him is groupthink. I also believe that your stance on the bit I just quoted is confused at best, and that people, in relying on that, are using a shaky bedrock for a wagon.

You still haven't answered the question. What do

you

think?

Gorrad, what do you think of Mgm?

Mgm, what do you think of Gorrad?

Iammars, what are your thoughts?

I need to poke around and pull more people into the conversation - I'll try to do that tomorrow. (Of course, you people out there shouldn't need my prompting to do so.)

[Thesp]

MGM's play has seemed very superficial and he has been going for "available"/easy targets. I'm equally unimpressed with the depth of his thinking. I'm not sure to what extent, if any, this has to say about his alignment, however.

Yes, you're totally correct, my play is totally superficial and unimpressive and it's not impressing me either. That's because it's day 1 with very little solid information to go on. It's going to be a lot better day 2.

This line of thought simply

must

go away from every mafia player's line of thought.

This is never a good excuse. This is a cop-out.

[Thesp]

Resurrect: MBL

I feel the need to resurrect you as a vig and as Luke Skywalker. So kill people for me.

Protip: Jordan.

Also, now I can say this:

WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD YOU RESURRECT A VIG OVER AN APPARENT COP-LIKE FIGURE? Especially a cop that...nevermind.

I know your penchant for vigs, but geez, you've got to try to play well, here, and I think this was a substandard play.

[Thesp]

All, I should be alive a few days assuming our town doctor has any common sense. You have no reason to trust me when I say this, but I have not switched alignment upon resurrection.

I didn't even think about alignment switching. Hmm.

Also, I think the doc should do whatever the heck they want.

Aside from the aggravation I have here at this play, welcome, MBL!

[Thesp]

I don't believe MrBuddyLee for a moment.

I also think, if this is indeed genuine, that this play was not wise, as noted by hasdgfas.

Note to everyone: Just because you

can

do cool things doesn't mean you

should

do cool things.

[Thesp]

Note to everyone: Just because you

can

do cool things doesn't mean you

should

do cool things.

Here, I disagree. If I had daykill powers, I'd use it day 1. What if I got Nightkilled Night 1 and never got to use it? I'd be seriously pissed off. And when will I get awesome daykill powers ever again?

BECAUSE IT MAY NOT BE GOOD PLAY.

I find it a bit irritating that people would lower the chance for their team to win the game in order to "do something cool".

(I have half a mind to run MBL up for what he's doing on a principle, but I don't think he's actually anti-town.)

[Thesp]

If it wasn't a good idea, you wouldn't keep referring to it as "cool"

"Good" play and "cool" play don't always coincide.

Also, it appears MBL was lying. *sigh* I do want to hear from Fritzler why he chose to resurrect the vig rather than the cop.

[Thesp]

Thesp, why would you get so ornery about:

1) me asking people their opinion of your alignment
2) me asking if Gorrad should die immediately
3) me getting Gorrad to tell his scumpartners goodbye before he's gone

ps, to fritz: patience, padawan

1) I like you doing that.
2) Isn't the answer obvious?
3) I don't think there's any chance that would happen.

I'm ornery for other reasons.

We can get around to killing Gorrad the old fashioned way.

[Thesp]

I personally can definitely see resurrecting a vigilante over a role-type-cop, with the appearance of what appears to be 3 scum factions.

HOW??? Really, how?

A weaker-than-standard information role is still far superior to have around than a vig,

ceteris parabis. I also don't want to hear a thing about MBL vs. DGB as a player - who do you think you would inherently draw kills from the pirate group anyway? The guaranteed vig, or the guaranteed player that finds members of their ranks? This line of thought is subpar, to say the least and saying it the kindest.

[Thesp]

I personally can definitely see resurrecting a vigilante over a role-type-cop, with the appearance of what appears to be 3 scum factions.

HOW??? Really, how?

A weaker-than-standard information role is still far superior to have around than a vig,

ceteris parabis.

What if there are scum pirates and town pirates? What if there are

more

town pirates than scum pirates?

Do you think it would be worthwhile to find this information out? A Pirate-finder could catch scum in a lie, and a vig cannot (largely speaking). This is in part why I still ponder whether or not it would be wise to make everyone claim pirate/ninja/neither - I'm not sure how useful it would be to the scum to know what townies are pirates/ninjas. If I were certain it wouldn't be useful to them, I'd press for it hardcore, because even scum lie here, there is something to catch them on (and I don't think townies would lie about this).

This line of thought is subpar, to say the least and saying it the kindest.

Explain to me again how you know/why you think the setup doesn't have pirate townies?

I have said no such thing, nor do I think any such thing. I'm saying it's...less than stellar play...to regard a vig as more useful than an information role.

[Thesp]

Fritzler made the exact same play I would have. Take that with a grain of salt, though, because, well, you know.

[Thesp]

I personally can definitely see resurrecting a vigilante over a role-type-cop, with the appearance of what appears to be 3 scum factions.

HOW??? Really, how?

A weaker-than-standard information role is still far superior to have around than a vig,

ceteris parabis.

What if there are scum pirates and town pirates? What if there are

more

town pirates than scum pirates?

Do you think it would be worthwhile to find this information out?

I think it would be great if the town could find this out without hurting ourselves.

I agree. Do you think it'd be harmful to have mass pirate/ninja/neither claim?

A Pirate-finder could catch scum in a lie, and a vig cannot (largely speaking).

A vigilante can kill scum while a pirate-finder cannot. (largely speaking)

OH NOES IF ONLY THE TOWN HAD SOME WAY OF KILLING THE SCUMZ WITHOUT A VIG. :rolleyes:

This is in part why I still ponder whether or not it would be wise to make everyone claim pirate/ninja/neither - I'm not sure how useful it would be to the scum to know what townies are pirates/ninjas. If I were certain it wouldn't be useful to them, I'd press for it hardcore, because even scum lie here, there is something to catch them on (and I don't think townies would lie about this).

I am also unsure how useful it would be to the scum.

Then do you think we should massclaim pirate/ninja/neither?

This line of thought is subpar, to say the least and saying it the kindest.

Explain to me again how you know/why you think the setup doesn't have pirate townies?

I have said no such thing, nor do I think any such thing. I'm saying it's...less than stellar play...to regard a vig as more useful than an information role.

Why? Explain this to me, assuming it is not obvious.

I'm going to wait on this for a moment. I want to hear from Fritzler first.

I swear I'm going to get out of the way and hear from others (and stop having so much for people to read), it's just hard for me to do sometimes.

[Thesp]

MGM's play has seemed very superficial and he has been going for "available"/easy targets. I'm equally unimpressed with the depth of his thinking. I'm not sure to what extent, if any, this has to say about his alignment, however.

Yes, you're totally correct, my play is totally superficial and unimpressive and it's not impressing me either. That's because it's day 1 with very little solid information to go on. It's going to be a lot better day 2.

This line of thought simply

must

go away from every mafia player's line of thought.

This is never a good excuse. This is a cop-out.

I could go around making spurious and baseless accusations, but I prefer to say useful stuff that actually makes sense.

I'm confused, are you suggesting you're incapable of good play on Day 1?

Do you think it would be worthwhile to find this information out? A Pirate-finder could catch scum in a lie, and a vig cannot (largely speaking). This is in part why I still ponder whether or not it would be wise to make everyone claim pirate/ninja/neither - I'm not sure how useful it would be to the scum to know what townies are pirates/ninjas. If I were certain it wouldn't be useful to them, I'd press for it hardcore, because even scum lie here, there is something to catch them on (and I don't think townies would lie about this).

So exactly what would be the advantage of lying for the scum? Not lying means you cannot be caught in the lie.

I suspect it'd be useful to see who claimed to be pirate/ninja and who claimed to be neither. I think it'd be very interesting if 4 people claimed to be pirates, and 4 people claimed to be ninjas. It's not condemning in and of itself, but I think it'd be useful information. What do you think?

Gorrad, what do you think about being vigged?

Also, Mgm suspects me, so you know I'm innocent.

[Thesp]

Well, I suppose I might as well claim due to my not being dead yet. I'm Oliver Hardy, mason with Stan Laurel, hasdgfas. I am told in my role PM that he's a good guy, 100% pro-town, so by vigging me at least you got a confirmed innocent. Now gee, if only you'd have let me claim CONFIRMABLE INNOCENT before you vigged, maybe I'd not be dead. MBL, you suck.

I'm a 1000% sure MBL's vig was fake. hasdgfas, can you confirm?

Unvote.

[Thesp]

now especially, I think Thesp owes the town to explain this BS Gorrad - Mars link he claimed to see so clearly earlier

If it's bothering you that much...

I alluded to this earlier, here:

I see where people are coming from on the Iammars wagon, but I think it's kind of weak reasoning. FoS: Iammars. Iammars, thoughts?

Admits it's weak reasoning, but FOSes him anyway, I can see this as going along with the general crowd, and maybe to put more pressure on Mars. But he already has 6 votes, I want to hear from him again before maybe voting him.

I was thinking something similar - this looks like a scum link here, especially when Gorrad follows it up with...

As for Mars, he's getting a good number of votes while he's not at his computer. The logic behind his bandwagon is the biggest tell I've seen in the game so far, so normally I'd vote him, but I'd rather give him a chance to say his peace than add one more vote to the list of ones he gets while not able to explain himself.

We can lynch Gorrad tomorrow. Iammars is for today.

He throws on an FOS that he doesn't agree with, and he claims he'd vote, but wants to give Iammars a chance to explain himself. Scum love to get the chance to "explain themselves", and love just as much to give their buddies a chance to do it. (What Gorrad implied here is that the wagon is reasonable and worth being a part of, but there is some explanation of the comment (beyond what I can imagine) that would account for the suspicion on him and warrant the wagon moving off of him.) To me, it made a lot of sense for a Gorrad-Iammars pair.

I also don't always think it's wise to dileneate to the scum how they are interacting with each other that tells us who they are - they tend to obfuscate it after that.

I like the votes on Kaleidoscope and on Sir Tornado. I may switch to one of them shortly - let me do some minor review in the next day or so.

[Thesp]

Im considering changing me meta on day ones to refusing to speak as well. I like how there are no consequences but actual play threatens one with a wagon. Seems fair.

I really, really like you.

[Thesp]

I'm trying to decide if MBL's play is scummy or stupid, and I'm leaning towards the latter. Anyone know if his play is usually this terrible?

I think it's unlikely he's scum right now - I find it highly unlikely scum would fake a dayvig like he did.

[Thesp]

I'm trying to decide if MBL's play is scummy or stupid, and I'm leaning towards the latter. Anyone know if his play is usually this terrible?

I think it's unlikely he's scum right now - I find it highly unlikely scum would fake a dayvig like he did.

Why not? What would scum stand to lose by doing so? Certainly their scumpartners wouldn't be endangered by it, and they'd have a shot at outing a member of the opposite scumgroup... unless there IS no opposite scumgroup.

Hmm...

In my experience, scum are unlikely to lie in a way that will be obviously outed, and tend not to draw attention to themselves in deliberate, spectacular ways. (Not to mention if Fritzler is telling the truth (which will be demonstrated soon), it's unlikely that MrBuddyLee would have changed alignments anyway.) I just don't see such a big gambit happening from MBLscum, even if it would have produced good results for MBLscum.

Mod: can we get prods on all players who haven't posted in the last 72 hours?

Thanks!

[Thesp]

Thanks! (I'd just looked up who hadn't posted and was about to list them for you - you're too fast!)

[Thesp]

I'm pretty busy => reduced activity. I get much less busy Feb. 21.

I'll contribute as possible; meanwhile I still encourage Thesp votes. Note how both masons are voting Thesp. Note how I am voting Thesp. Go and do likewise.

I'm curious - what did you think of my explanation of the perceived (though apparently incorrect) link between Gorrad and Iammars? It seemed terribly important to you earlier.

[Thesp]

By the way, I'm holding off on releasing my N1 Vig target for several reasons.

I was just thinking about this and going to ask about it. I'm curious as to why.

[Thesp]

Even recently, when I put out some bait using the questionable argument of appealing to authority by saying "look the masons are voting thesp, you should too", Thok jumped in and refocused an attack on me before anyone else had the chance to respond to my comment.

Am I reading this right - you have problems with Thok for calling you out on an argument you knew was problematic?

What???

I know that's not exclusively what you're saying, but this stands out to me as incredibly odd. I'm thinking more and more as I hear from you that you're just full of it, whether it's because you've pre-concluded that I'm scum and are trying to make the facts fit the theory, or because you're scum making it up. One more thing:

So,

(1)

I feel like Thok and Thesp were communicating about something, and also

(2)

I see Thok's recurring theme of defending Thesp for actions similar to what others have done, and

(3)

trying to redirect discussion about Thesp to discussion of other candidates.

I agree entirely with (1) - I'm not sure how it's an indication that the two communicating are more likely to be scum. As to (2), I'm interested in seeing what similarities you've observed, as I've noticed him defending me, but I haven't noticed what he's theoretically overlooked in others. As to (3), wouldn't that be the sensible thing to do if you thought the figure seemingly in the biggest spotlight wasn't scum? I know I would - I'm not sure why I would do any different.

I don't know what basis you're using to divine why someone is more likely to be scum, other than "I don't like how he's playing". I don't see how (in the case of (1) and (3)) those actions are likely to indicate that someone is scum, and in the case of (2), I just don't see it. I'm having a hard time taking you seriously anymore.

PPE:

Gorrad said he didn't want to mess up another "secret plan" like he did earlier, so he put a weak FOS on to see where it went. Even so, he explicitly stated he didn't like the Iammars wagon, but that he'd like to hear what Iammars had to say.

THAT'S EXACTLY WHY IT SHOULD THROW UP RED FLAGS. IT'S INDICATING WISHY-WASHINESS, WHICH IS MORE OFTEN SEEN IN SCUM. SCUM ESPECIALLY LIKE TO APPEAR THAT THEY ARE AGAINST THEIR PARTNERS WITHOUT PUTTING GENUINE PRESSURE, WHICH IS WHAT SAID QUOTE DID.

PS: In Mafia, the scum often do not tell the truth. I'm uncertain why you think I should have taken Gorrad at his word when he said he was just trying to play along, particularly when I thought he was likely to be scum at the time.

[Thesp]

Thesp, I think a large ammount of your "refutation" of my argument is that you didn't understand I wasn't arguing for Thok being scum independently, bur rather that if you were scum Thok would be more likely to be scum.

No, I picked up on that. I didn't understand why you thought the particular interactions between Thok and I are more likely to come from scum, and you sure didn't give any basis for asserting that.

Even recently, when I put out some bait using the questionable argument of appealing to authority by saying "look the masons are voting thesp, you should too", Thok jumped in and refocused an attack on me before anyone else had the chance to respond to my comment.

Am I reading this right - you have problems with Thok for calling you out on an argument you knew was problematic?

I have a question for you -- I put this argument out there, to see how people would respond -- just like you put your argument out there that we should all claim pirate/not pirate.

You got really angry with Gorrad for messing that up; how is this scenario different?

I'm not sure how scum would respond differently here than town.

One more thing:

So,

(1)

I feel like Thok and Thesp were communicating about something, and also

(2)

I see Thok's recurring theme of defending Thesp for actions similar to what others have done, and

(3)

trying to redirect discussion about Thesp to discussion of other candidates.

I agree entirely with (1) - I'm not sure how it's an indication that the two communicating are more likely to be scum.

Conspiring about a secret with a scum isn't a scumtell? I'm not arguing for Thok being scum. I arguing that, assuming Thesp is scum, Thok may be scum with Thesp.

This makes mild sense in that limited context, but even then, it's extremely rare for scum to operate this way. Why would they? There's

zero

compelling reason to.

Gorrad said he didn't want to mess up another "secret plan" like he did earlier, so he put a weak FOS on to see where it went. Even so, he explicitly stated he didn't like the Iammars wagon, but that he'd like to hear what Iammars had to say.

THAT'S EXACTLY WHY IT SHOULD THROW UP RED FLAGS. IT'S INDICATING WISHY-WASHINESS, WHICH IS MORE OFTEN SEEN IN SCUM.

Yeah? What about a townie power role who has some suspicion on him and doesn't want to be outed, or a vanilla who doesn't want to be lynched?

I have absolutely no clue why what you're saying has anything to do with what we're talking about.

PS: In Mafia, the scum often do not tell the truth.

Wait, no, you're kidding!? People... LIE... in mafia??? Please, teach me more.[/sarcasm]

Come on, Thesp! I'm saying I didn't see a lie where you did. Obviously people lie. I tried to explain why I didn't think Gorrad was lying -- not that no one lies..

It seemed to me you were trying to explain why

I

shouldn't have thought Gorrad was lying, which is fundamentally different.

I'm uncertain why you think I should have taken Gorrad at his word when he said he was just trying to play along, particularly when I thought he was likely to be scum at the time.

Wait -- you are using this bit as an argument for why he was scum.

No, I am not. I am using it as an example of why I saw no reason to take Gorrad at his word, though it seemed you thought I should.

I really need to stop encouraging you by responding to your posts - I need to do productive things rather than post when I'm incensed. In fact, that's what I'm going to do today: someone slap me with a fish if I quote Guardian again before Day 2. In fact, Day 1 will probably be better this way.

[ignore Guardian]

[Thesp]

It isnt minis. It's thesp and guardian.

You are both banned from quoting each other. Paraphrasing for the win.

I swear I'm going to be a good boy about this, though it's taking every ounce of my restraint. Guardian is lucky I'm not Twito.

[Thesp]

Thesp, I know you're busy fighting off the Guardian Devil, but if you wouldn't mind not ignoring my questions, that would be appreciated! Thanks!

Is this what you're referring to?

Hi Thesp. How are you doing? Well? Not well? What do you think of Gorrad now that he claimed Mason? What do you think of Iammars now that Gorrad has claimed Mason?

I figured the questions are sort of obvious, to some extent. I'm doing fine, though a bit irritated with this game. I think Gorrad is almost certainly town (And it's not worth considering otherwise now), and I am still inclined to think Iammars is more likely to be town now based on things indepndent of Gorrad.

I find myself uncomfortable with Skruffs, as I read through.

Vote: Kaleidoscope

, though my vote would be just as happy on Sir Tornado or Skruffs.

[Thesp]

I'm going to try and get a good post in tonight - I haven't forgotten about you all.

I don't see the sense in a Guardian wagon right now - I think he's genuinely playing poorly this game, and genuinely frustrated.

I do think we should lynch someone by Saturday.

[Thesp]

I think Kaleidoscope should claim now - no sense in dragging it out. I'm especially bothered by how you're defiantly no contributing. You're not the only one, but it is egregious and must be stopped. Claim or die.

I really don't see why people think Guardian is more likely to be scum (especially after his genuine-looking tantrum), and I don't think he should be lynched today. I also don't think Iammars is more likely to be scum. (

Remind me to say something about communicating mod-communication from a theory-level after this game.

) I'm growing increasingly concerned with Skruffs, and I think he's highly likely to be scum.

For the record, I'm not comfortable with TSQ's unvote for reasons he himself stated. I don't know if I like The Fonz or not - he deserves far more attention as the game progresses.

Happy with my vote.

[Thesp]

I really don't see why people think Guardian is more likely to be scum (especially after his genuine-looking tantrum), and I don't think he should be lynched today.

If you spend any time reading Open 19, you wouldn't consider Guardian's tantrum a good argument argument for him being town.

I skimmed it - this rant feels a bit different from his actions in that game, but I do understand where you're coming from.

Thesp:
You've again mentioned you thinking I might be scum, so I will again ask you why. You are still pinging hard on my scumdar, and you now appear to be scuttlling about like a cockroach. Speak up or I shall stamp on thee.

No.

FOS: Thesp There's a thing called appealing to emotion. It's a last resort scum tactic thats used when he is unable to come up with any more lies. Which is exactly what happened.

I clearly missed something here.

Skruffs, my point wasn't akin to "We might lynch a townie Oh noes" It was that Kscope hasnt done enough that would justify me voting for him when he's usually like this day one, and is valuable further on down the line. If he's still like this later in the game we can cross that bridge there.

Why vote him in the first place, then?

[Thesp]

I don't trust the lover claim, but there's no way he's surviving to the endgame with it.

Unvote: Kaleidoscope, Vote: Skruffs.

I will move/remove it in a heartbeat to ensure a lynch. by the end of Saturday. That said, I think Guardian should claim, and get inevitabilities out of the way.

(And I also echo Gorrad's question.)

[Thesp]

The only thing is, you were at least continuing your earlier 'game style' of pretending not to have a clue of what was going on in the game.

I don't understand what you mean here.

Skruffs, there are a couple of reasons I'm not divulging more of why I'm suspicious of you - part of it is to see if other people see it too (and without them piggybacking on my reasons - I want to see if my sense is somewhat justified through that), I want to see how you react to my pressure (which I feel I've gotten useful response), and I don't want you to stop doing anything that I think indicates you're more likely to be scum (in case it's anamolous rather than consistent - I don't want you all self-conscious on me).

I also agree 100% that I deliberately laid low for a little while after the firestorm for a variety of reasons, some of which are real life concerns, some of which are page breadth concerns, and some of which were that I felt I was distracting the town by posting rather than helping it.

Happy with my vote, by the way.

[Thesp]

I'm Samwise Gamgee. I am a tracker. I think me being more confirmed is more important than MBL having a shroud of mystery -- I happened to target him N1, and he didn't target anyone for vig-ing.

MBL, can you confirm?

[Thesp]

I'm Samwise Gamgee. I am a tracker. I think me being more confirmed is more important than MBL having a shroud of mystery -- I happened to target him N1, and he didn't target anyone for vig-ing.

MBL, can you confirm?

You realize this is a mostly useless claim in terms of verification purposes.

Yes, but an anti-confirmation would be terribly significant.

[Thesp]

Thesp:
I'm as interested in finding scum as you are. It's very odd to say "I'm not going to say why I'm suspicious of you because you'll become self conscious" - the whole intent of that sentence, it would seem, would be designed to make someone feel self conscious. It sounds, the way you phrased it, like you are hoping someone ELSE will find a reason for you to latch onto, which you can then say "Yeah, that's it, there. *cough*" ... which isns't very fair for me; you appear to be tryign to find collaboration without allowing defense. If you really want to do that, to me, thene fine... I attacked you first so you are allowed to be as tricky as you want towards me. I just hope ou will *Eventually* sit up straight enough to be responsible for what you are trying to do. You're giving me a very oil, car-salesman like vibe right now, I *really* don't like it.

Ok.

Unvote: Skruffs, Vote: Rosso Carne.

I don't mind this wagon, and it might need some last-second help to get somewhere. I'd still rather lynch Skruffs and will move my vote back there should traction be necessary.

[Thesp]

Thesp. You dont want to lynch skruffs. That is

bullshi-

malarkey.

It's close to deadline and you aren't making a case, you are playing poker instead. My guess is you don't want to lynch Skruffs at all. You want to give the illusion of activity in a safe area. You're worried about any of the other wagons you've pursued coming up as town and indicting you, so you want to become patron saint of a hopeless case.

That's what it looks like to me anyway from over in the cheap seats.

If we can't take care of Skruffs in the next 36 hours (which seems likely), I'll be more than happy to work on him tomorrow. Would you join me?

[Thesp]

Thesp - an active player who I've talked about already. Most recently,I've found his 11th hour Skruffs push without reasons to be, as I said, a highly scummy attempt to distance from whatever lynch finally occurs on the chance that it comes up town.

I thought I'd expressed my discomfort with Skruffs on a number of occasions prior. Am I wrong?

[Thesp]

Vote: Skruffs

.

I'll try to do some cursory re-reads later, but it may be a while.

[Thesp]

Vote: Guardian.

I was willing to consider other possibilities until the tracking-Erg0 counter-claim.

[Thesp]

Thesp, could you clarify what you meant by that last post?

Guardian claimed Erg0 visited hasdfgas last night, Erg0 said he didn't. Couple that with the goblin claim, I think a Guardian lynch is by far the best course of action. (I can conceive of a plausible scenario where the investigation of Guardian is town-and-town, but the Erg0 claim makes a scum Guardian significantly more likely.)

[Thesp]

Let me get this straight- you think that a scum Guardian is significantly more likely because Erg0 denied targetting Cow last night? What did you expect Erg0 to do?

Well, in part, but not quite. More because Guardian

claimed

Erg0 visited hasdgfas,

and

Erg0 denied it. That's essentially two people saying they have role-based information which contradicts in some ways (directly or indirectly) what Guardian claims.

[Thesp]

But it's hardly surprising, since Guardian's claim about Erg0 implied strongly that Erg0 was a scum killer.

I agree Erg0's response is unsurprising - it's Guardian's initial claim about Erg0 (

and

subsequent counterfactual-claim), coupled with the earlier assertion that makes Guardian the play for the day.

[Thesp]

Moot, I suppose, since I think Guardian's lying regardless. But I don't think that statement reflects well on Thesp. There are any number of good reasons to believe Guardian is scum. I don't think that's one of them.

I don't think you're understanding what I'm saying in the least. If Guardian came out independently and asserted that Erg0 had visited hasdfgas, I'd be more inclined to test the theory by lynching hasdfgas. However, he did so with a pseudo-guilty against him after coming under a lot of suspicion. I think Guardian is therefore significantly more likely to be scum, and want to see what comes of his lynch before drawing further conclusions.

[Thesp]

Just a quick check-in post here before I post more tonight - I like the Skruffs hate, obviously. More later.

[Thesp]

In other news, our Ninja Finder appeared to be on Thesp like flies on shinola.

unvote, vote: Thesp

THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON WHY FRITZLER'S D1 PLAY WAS TERRIBLE. It would be awesome to revive Mgm and ask him what he found, and maybe get him some protection. Sheesh.

I can understand the votes on me due to Mgm, because it's a reasonable conclusion to draw, even if the conclusion is incorrect. It's not the first time Mgm has been irrationally and insanely wrong about me. (See Face to Face Mafia for such an example. In fact, his rhetoric there is very similar to this game, and he did not have any cop-like role in that game, just his mis-guided intuition. He only let up when I'd spearheaded a lynch of scum no one else had given attention to, and there was an innocent investigation more-or-less revealed on me.) Also note that Mgm started his crazy "lynch Thesp" campaign in D1, and simply continued it through D2. (I understand that one could conlude that he simply investigated me at night and found me guilty, but I think there are a number of reasonable alternatives, one of which must have obtained.)

I still have a strong suspicion that Skruffs is scum, for details which will be outlined later in this post, but I'm a little more reticent to lynch him at the moment because of Twomz's result. I know there is at least one other scum faction he could belong to, but he's at least slightly more cleared by investigation than most of you.

I don't think Skruffs should be allowed near the endgame.

I'm going to claim now, then give some more analysis, because I think otherwise I'm going to be a distraction. I'm

Sanada Yukimura, a Samurai

. I'm also a

DayVig

. I alluded to this earlier when I referred to Twito...

I swear I'm going to be a good boy about this, though it's taking every ounce of my restraint. Guardian is lucky I'm not Twito.

My first experience playing with Twito came when I was in Dilbert Mafia with him. I was deliberately cryptic in that game about something, and was also highly hostile towards Twito, whom I thought was scum. He was aggravated at me, so he daykilled me, losing the town valuable information in the process. (I was town with info on a message-sender.) This reference was directly to the play there, whereas my aggravation was such that had I shared Twito's temperament, I may have daykilled Guardian then. You'll also note my hostility towards Fritzler for his play, and the general feeling I had that simply because you

can

do something cool doesn't mean you

should

.

My power is a day-ender. Also worth noting - if I kill town, I die too.

Part of my strong suspicion of Iammars (following Guardian's logic) was that

I

was going to confirm with flavor! After hurriedly seeing my role, I went to post my confirmation, and was going to do something appropriate to my character (in part for the discussion that might arise), then realized I'd forgotten whether precisely I was a ninja or a pirate. When I went back to check, I was genuinely surprised to be

neither

- that's why Iammars's confirmation post stuck out to me -

I was going to do something similar, so it made sense that another person might do the same.

I'd prefer to hold on to my ability, but would understand if it's necessary to use it today. (I'm a little hesitant about the 2-town loss when there seem to be a lot of scum about.) If it

is

necessary for me to use my ability today, I will use my best judgment.

I suspect that there are a few players who are genuinely incorrect about me, and there are plenty of scum who are more than happy to whip up such support for a lynch.

Now, to business.

Personally, I'm vacillating on Guardian/Erg0. It makes sense for guardian to finger a non-buddy as scum whether or not it's actually true. But the whole 'Moses coming down from the mountain' schtick Guardian seemed to be pulling at the beginning of yesterday makes me think he was planning to announce an incriminating result, which makes me think Erg0scum is more likely.

I agree with this sentiment, and would like to hear a claim from Erg0.

- I think Erg0 is not just caught scum but I think I've guessed what kind: a ninja. I look back on the Guardian stuff and the timing and manner of his claim and am coming down on the side that says Erg0 got caught by the crosskill rule. Everything else is Erg0 trying to stay alive. Which is fair. But I'm not buying it. Why a ninja though Cicero? Just a hunch but when I started to go back and re-read it was Erg0 who was first to notice that MBL's night kill was really two nightkills. One being goblin by the looks of things. The other one: ninja. "But Cicero! That doesn't prove anything!!! sputter, sputter!!" Yeah yeah. Cicero knows. It's just a guess. I also don't think it makes sense to wait for scum to do town's dirty work. I'm really confused by Gorrad's position here. If he wasnt already confirmed I'd be assuming he was scum, and I obviously wouldnt be the only one.

I like this paragraph.

Regardless of if he is confirmed, It's really scummy to be trying to tell people to kill me, considering I don't remember him actually saying he thought I was scum earlier in the game.

This made me laugh, calling someone's actions scummy whilst simultaneously acknowledging they are confirmed town.

There are several reasons I can see why Thesp is full of anti-skruffiness.

1) He is a pirate, a ninja, or a goblin. Motive: Get all players other than his team killed, and realizes that Skruffs is a pretty easy lynch, all things considering.

2) Day one, I called him out on a series of very bad suggestions; remember when he suggested everyone claim pirate or ninja? I chastized him, and he's been voting and basically saying 'kill skruffs' ever since. Speculative motive: Resentment of my wit and mental accuity in poking him at a time when his game was off; his wanting to lynch me is purely spiteful in nature.

3) He's a lyncher on me. I find this to be a possible, feasible role, based on my role, but I don't see anyone being so blatantly obvious about it. Speculative Motive: He wins if I get lynched.

4) He really doesn't care about the game, and has no idea what is going on, so is just attempting to be 'constant' if he can't be constructive. Perhaps, if scum, he's hoping i will come up scum so that he can say he was bread-crumbing cop from day 1.

That's my reasonings as to why Thesp has been voting me constantly since day 1.

I do find it interesting that you are discounting the fact that I might genuinely be wrong. (I understand why you are discounting that I might be right, though it's not something I can ignore.)

I also am down on a Thesp lynch; even more so than Erg0; the quiet cop fingering is enough to justify it to me.

This bothers me. A lot.

I really wished we'd done the pirate/ninja claim earlier, now, though I'm not certain how helpful it'd be at this juncture.

I'm glad I voiced my suspicion of Skruffs without posting reason at first, as it seems there's shared, genuine concern about him being anti-town. I feel somewhat justified by that. Part of my concern with him is the excessive attention given to flavor, which in my experience comes far more often from scum. I do think he was keenly aware on who died and how moreso because he's paying particular attention to them. (People are slightly more likely to mention things about which they have direct knowledge. Also, killing-scum are more keenly aware of the roles they've killed because it's the first thing they check, in my experience, which Skruffs has demonstrated in this game.) He also seems to be taking a lot of potshots from the sidelines, and is overly speculative about many things without being committal. He was also overly concerned with comments that I made that I thought he was scum - he was looking for something to respond to in order to allay my suspicions. Town more frequently shrug off passing suspicion of a player or two (especially when presented in an unfounding manner), scum are more eager to defend themselves against something. (This is part of why I think defenses are overrated - scum are far too eager to them!) Later on, his speculation around Twomz was very odd, and was a bit eager to post "Hooray for lynching scum!"

Perhaps that can give you some insight into why I think Skruffs is scum. And a terrible irony when I say we should also be looking at other players right now as well. I think the spotlight is too narrow - there are a lot of sideline players that need to be involved. I'm interested in what Flameaxe thinks of most the players in the game. I also want to hear more from RogueBen, for a number of reasons. I think Erg0 is likely the best lynch today.

[Thesp]

Initially, I'm skeptical. Your power, if used, would not only end the day phase thus preventing a lynch, but is also a bit unbalanced, in the fact that if used improperly could leave three or four town dead if you are town.

I don't understand this - what do you mean, here?

Also, what do you think of Skruffs? About anyone else? (Let's broaden the spotlight, shall we?)

If I were to walk up to you, when you and a bunch of other people were discussing, ACTUALLY discussing, a situation that was actually important.
Let's say I did that.

And while you were discussing, let's say I... oh... pushed my elbow into your ribs. I'd do it enough to be a bother, and I Would do it publicly. You would probably say something along the lines of, "Skruffs, stop, that's annoying."

Let's say you said that, and I kept my elbow there, and just kept waiting. Eventually you would ask, "Say, Skruffs? Would you mind explaining why you are jabbing me in the side? You're not doing much else, and it's annoying."

If I then said, "Aha! I jabbed you in the side to SEE if you would ask me to stop... a real town person wouldn't CARE if I was jabbing him in the side... obviously, you must be scum..."

You would probably look at me, the exact same way that I am looking at my computer screen right now. You just reinforced your 'argument through repitition', and added on the fallacy which involves drawing a target around the bullet hole.

That's a very extreme analogy. Also, how did I "reinforce my 'argument through repitition'"? By asserting why I think you're scum, which you'd been asking for for some time?

Regarding Thesp's claim, I don't know... Misuse of such a townie role would be a huge oucher if it's indeed real, especially with the one-shot night kill immunities from scum.

I agree entirely.

So basically what I'm saying is if I am reading your role correctly, there is no upside - it is purely detrimental, and therefore either I cannot read or your role would be a ridiculous townie role.

Why would it be a ridiculous (and apparently impossible?) townie role? On that note, I've already deduced the 4 possibilities you outlined, which is why I think it wise I use my ability in place of

my

lynch, instead of any others. The upside of it is that we either get

two

lynches (if I'm wrong and I hit a townie), and the better upside of it is if I hit right, we kill a scum, then have to figure out what to do with me. (I have ideas about what we can do with me, obviously. )

Has anyone ever seen this role in another game? If so, I'd be a lot more inclined to believe that this could be given to the Town.

I saw it in the game I had with Twito, though without the suicide-on-a-townie-kill aspect.

[Thesp]

You're being ignorant, Thesp. Just because someone is TOWN does not mean that their play is smart. You said something almost exactly along the same lines regarding Fritz's ressurection of the doc-killing Vig.

NO. (I agree that pro-town players can make bad play, but the issue here is what "scummy" is.) You were saying their actions indicate him as more likely to be scum (the definition of "scummy") whilst denying the possibility that he was scum. You did

not

say he was playing poorly, you said he was

scummy

. To suggest ignorance here is...

...

Moving on.

Why does it bother you that I am 'down' for your lynch? You've been acting scummily all game; apparently intentionally, by your own admission.

It's not that you're "down" for my lynch that bothers me, but the assertion that the unclear trail left by Mgm is sufficient for my lynch. I also am unclear where you read that I agree in any way that I've been acting scummily. (I disagree entirely.)

As for shared, genuine concern... *shakes his head* If you say someone is scum enough, people will believe it.

This is wrong. Wrong wrong wrong.

That makes it even more ironic when you say, "I think the spotlight is too narrow - there are a lot of sideline players that need to be involved.". This of course directly after repeating the same "Skruffs is scum" that you have been saying all game long, in a post that only talks directly about ONE LIVING PLAYER.

What are you reading? I'm having trouble making sense of this with anything I'm reading. Also, I thought the knock on me wasn't that I'd been saying "Skruffs is scum" all day long, but that I'd been on bad lynches, no?

Similarly, TSQ also tried to get DGB killed pregame, and she was, though only by one scum team. So I still think MBF and TSQ should be up there.

I share these sentiments, though RogueBen has replaced TSQ. I'd like RogueBen to post soon.

I like almost everything cicero says, with his latest posts no exception.

[Thesp]

Maybe some of you are huge Anime/Japan geeks but for a guy like me at least that's way more obscure than any other character mentioned in this game. On the other hand, I can't think of the names of any Samurais off the top of my head and it makes sense that Stoofer might put one in.

I agree - I hadn't heard of him before.

[Thesp]

Second- Thesp, are you a one-shot Dayvig? If not, our answer is simple- Every time we have someone at L-1, Thesp attacks them. If we choose scum, hip hip hooray! If we choose town, then we don't lose a lynch and Thesp dies. I agree that his role doesn't seem the most pro-town, and this way we don't lose anything except possibly a very scummy townie, and more likely a very scummy scum.

I don't know the wisdom of revealing this. Let me ponder it.

[Thesp]

I'd like to make this day more productive than using me to kill here, but I suspect that may be anywhere from unlikely to impossible at this juncture. I want a few more people to weigh in significantly first. I find it odd that I think Skruffs is making more sense than anyone else right now, though I don't know if it's from self-preservation or not. (Not that self-preservation is inherently bad for a player to have!)

But there's no way that Buffy would be vanilla.

This is a silly assumption to make.

I like UltimaAvalon's line of thinking (which Skruffs and mikeburnfire touch upon earlier), especially here:

Whats the big deal about testing? As far as I'm concerned, the only one's who should care if he really has dayvig powers, (and I only feel this way because of the multiple scumgroup scenario) are the scum. Whether he's lying or not, and regardless of his alignment, he now has at least two scum groups now considering him for the nightkill, simply because of the threat of the dayvig.

I'll also always oppose any sort of town-led consensus that isn't the lynch. I'm of the opinion that a single person will always make a better decision than any group of people, especially when that group of people consists of people who are opposing you.

To some real extent, if I listen to "the will of the people" and let that determine my actions, it could be anywhere from 0%-50+% scum-influenced. If I make the choice myself, I know my actions are 100% non-scum influenced (except to the extent conversation in the thread goes, etc.).

cicero, do you really doubt my ability? Note that when the MBL fake-kill came up, I said I was 1000% sure MBL didn't have a daykill -

because his role was "Vig" and mine was "Day Vig"

. I knew there was an explicit difference between our roles. (On that note, I'm not sure what MBL means when he says my reaction was "understated, then overstated". Can you explain what you see there? (Also, it's an absurd ability to claim if I can't back it up, especially as it doesn't verify my alignment unless I kill a townie, in which case I really, really would get killed for it.)

I also think this warrants more explanation:

Vampires generally represent cults. I think he's a cult-immune townie.
That's all I'm saying now.

...

How do we know that there's three groups? How do we know that it's not 2 groups and a SK? Note that we also haven't had a dead ninja scum yet. (Although ninjas are probably scum)

I am also not saying this just based of Erg0's claim.

I think the cat's out of the bag on this one, and any scum who may know more here have already been clued into anything they need to know from your less-than-subtle posts. This warrants explanation

now

, especially since you are asserting a semi-rolebased defense of the popular lynch for the day. (For the record, I don't believe Erg0's claim one bit, but since someone

who has expressed cluelessness about his own role

is suggesting some evidence that Erg0 may be town, it should be heard.)

I'm really, really, really not liking RogueBen's "follow the crowd and don't do anything significant" style of play. Coupled with TSQ's unusual jump off of Kaleidoscope on D1, I think he's a significant candidate for scumhood.

Thesp, Erg0, what do you guys make of Claus's (and cicero's) behavior re: you?

I've disagreed with many of the conclusions he came to (especially how he came to them. I've appreciated his activity, and I think he's genuinely wrong on things, as his frustration about too many players on D1 seems genuine. (I know I misread Guardian on frustration, but I feel this way about Claus nonetheless.) I'm intrigued to hear why he thinks I don't have the ability to daykill.

[Thesp]

Something else I forgot to mention:

The scummy thing is semantics. Scummy to me means things that are helpful to scum. I didn't use it in a way to suggest gorrad was scum, I used it to infer that he's playing in a way that helps scum more than town. I guess he's bored with the game, since he's confirmed, and that's led to a sedentary, armchair-coaching style of play. No real personal investment.

Ah, I see what you're saying. This makes sense.

@Thesp - yep. of course I doubt your ability.

Why?

Thesp: Vig Erg0 already

Why now?

[Thesp]

@Thesp - yep. of course I doubt your ability.

Why?

Why not?

I can think of a number of compelling reasons, but they're worthless comign from me.

[Thesp]

To some real extent, if I listen to "the will of the people" and let that determine my actions, it could be anywhere from 0%-50+% scum-influenced. If I make the choice myself, I know my actions are 100% non-scum influenced (except to the extent conversation in the thread goes, etc.).

You

"know" your actions are 100% non-scum influenced, but how do you expect the rest of us to come to that conclusion? That's why the idea of testing the claim came up in the first place. From the perspective of everyone else, which is the perspective you have to deal with in these kinds of situations, we're dealing with a lynch triggered by a player. Why should we allow that to be used by someone who's alignment we were shaky on to begin with, when we could just as easily force that person to choose who we'd otherwise lynch?

I know you can't just take me at my word on my alignment. The question is, do you think I'm lying about my ability? If you don't think I'm lying, then me daykilling anyone won't verify my alignment. If you

do

think I'm lying, then why? It doesn't make sense to me, though perhaps it should, and it just hasn't been adequately explained to me why there is doubt about the ability claimed. Can you help me understand here?

[Thesp]

@Thesp - yep. of course I doubt your ability.

Why?

Why not?

I can think of a number of compelling reasons, but they're worthless comign from me.

Thesp, all this fencing just further erodes your credibility. There is nothing in what you said about MBL that made me go "Holy shit, he totally IS telling the truth". And if you'll recall the second part of the argument I made - which you have to admit is at least a little compelling (which may be why you chose to ignore it) is that if you are telling the truth you should still use your ability now.

I have ignored the second part of your argument because it confirms/denies more about my role than I think I should confirm/deny. Also, aren't you the one "fencing" here? I'm genuinely interested in why you don't believe I have the ability I claimed to have, and you respond with "Why not?" It would be a very odd claim for me to make if I can't back it up. Perhaps in my experience I've seen no more than two times that someone has claimed to have a publically-confirmable role that they didn't actually have - it would be an unusual claim, to say the very, very least.

[Thesp]

But don't let this distract us from RogueBen, who should be next to die after Erg0.

[Thesp]

Yeah Thesp I'm totally fencing. If you want to go back and dig out the quotes that prove you can do what you say you do I'll happily respond to them but I'm at work and dont have the time or the inclination to do your dirty work for you. Suffice it to say I read them and remain unconvinced. The heavens did not open up and flood me with the realisation of the foolishness of my ways.

I know you've been uncertain of my town-ness, I can respectfully disagree with that. I'm trying to get the best gauge I can on why people might not believe I would claim a testable ability without actually

having

said ability. (For those of whom believe I have the ability as claimed, but think me to be scum anyway, that's an entirely different question, but I'm curious to know that.) It helps me figure things out, if you wouldn't mind.

And i'm defending giving him the right to choose even though thesp has been wanting to kill me since basically day 1. stuff THAT in your pipes and smoke it.

I know, I think that's been the biggest irony of this day!

[Thesp]

Thesp: you keep asking that question so I'll answer it so if only not to be accused of avoiding it.

Guardian claimed a power that he could verify. He verified it too (sorta kinda lets all not get into it we know what happened blah blah blah). Turns out he was scum.

You did a thing that scum often do. Claim an ability with disincentives for testing it.
1) We'll go right to night
2) If I'm wrong I die too.

So you claimed an ability that you COULD demonstrate but really you dont WANT to demonstrate. and really only SCUM would ever really WANT you to demonstrate it and I think I'll just stay alive for a few more days (DELAY MY LYNCH) and maybe demonstrate it for the town at SOME UNSPECIFIED TIME IN THE FUTURE because its important that I don't LET MYSELF BE DIRECTED BY TOWN because town as we know is FULL OF SCUM.

This is scum claim 101, dude. Seen it before. Didn't impress me then. Doesn't impress me now.

(BTW - Editorial Sidenote: you wanna know whose fun to watch making claims like this? Tarhalindur. The shit that kid comes up with. "I am a cop and vig who can dayvig on alternate tuesdays and saturdays but only if there's a full moon and battlemage hasnt typed "lol" yet." Honestly)

Because of your MBL comments and this being a Stoofer game though, I have to accept the possibility that you are telling the truth. So I've also given you very good reasons why if you have the power you claim to have, now is the time to use it. I am not compelled by arguments that you should use such a power with discretion as I've said before.

This sort of response is helpful. Thanks. (I'm not asking questions for

your

sake, I'm asking them for

mine

.)

[Thesp]

Can anyone see a compelling reason

not

to ask for nightchoices/results?

He's clearly not a ninja, but I was reading the article on Wikipedia and I got the feeling that he might be considered a pirate.

This was also back when I thought that the game would be split in half between ninjas and pirates.

You thought the game was split between ninjas and pirates when you were a Vampire Finder???

Huh?

[Thesp]

I'm inclined to think Iammars is telling the truth about what he's saying (the ibaesha investigation is telling, I think), and I'm suspecting that Iammars is just wrong about Erg0. I also suspect the Vampires are a red herring, though that's only intuition there.

[Thesp]

Speaking of which, where is JordanA24?

[Thesp]

Speaking of which, could you kill erg0 now, Thesp? It would be mucho appreciated.

When there are still several people who need to weigh in rather than coast by? Why would I do that?

[Thesp]

I have no intention of letting you call out every lurker before you 'fess up and get lynched or you dayvig erg0.

Why shouldn't we get other people contributing? I want to hear what everyone says on the subject - there's plenty to be said, so there's no excuse for someone to be not posting and say, "there wasn't much to say so I didn't post".

I still think the most likely option is that this is just misdirection. This is Stoofs after all.

I agree with this.

Mod: can we get prods on anyone who hasn't posted in the last 72 hours?

Thanks!

[Thesp]

Or neutral.

While sometimes mods will characterize a role as neutral, there is no such thing as a neutral role.

Has Rogueben come up with any original ideas this game? Just wondering- it seems like all his posts are just mimicing reasons others have already given as excuses to change his vote.

*hifive*

[Thesp]

That day, I was on a tightrope of trying not to reveal what you were doing, while still giving an indication to later that I had actual reason to believe you were lying. (In fact, I alluded to a principle under which I would otherwise "run you up", which would be LAL.) I was also frustrated by Fritzler's terrible play just before that.

So after eight hours to think about it, and after eight posts about Gorrad, vigs, after the mod essentially ignoring my fakevig, and other miscellaneous issues giving you confidence that I had no dayvigging abilities, you decided to make it VERY clear that you're a "dayvig".

I didn't realize this was as transparent as it seems to be, and I thought the mod ignoring your claim made it obvious to everyone but Gorrad.

You didn't seem too concerned about self-preservation there, and seemed more concerned with laying the groundwork for a dayvig claim/fakeclaim.

You actually think that scum would fake a publically confirmable role

that doesn't verify alignment

without having the ability to back it up? Ponder it. The answer may well be "yes", but I want to make sure you've thought it through. (Obviously, at least one other reasonable player has come to the conclusion that scum would be likely to do that sort of thing, however much I think that conclusion is incredibly wrong.)

I am distrustful of mikeburnfire, but I will say this: I want the town to win. Let that satisfy anything MBF needs.

I want to hear from Primate, and I like the attention on RogueBen.

[Thesp]

We just drove Erg0 up into the neighborhood of L-2 and Thesp said no to using his power - despite me making what I think is a very good argument in favor of him using it.

When did I say no?

Also, I disagreed with your "very good" argument, and I know I'm not the only one.

I thought it was pretty compelling. No one's really rebutted it. Just dismissed it.

I thought people had rebutted it, though even if they hadn't, it doesn't make the argument

ideal

.

Primate, welcome! Your thoughts?

[Thesp]

When did I say no?

Well, you didn't kill erg0, so I think you'll have a hard time arguing you said yes.

I agree.

[Thesp]

I think we've reached the point where futher discussion is not helpful.

*sigh*

Kill: Erg0

[Thesp]

No. Why?

[Thesp]

PS - kill RogueBen.

[Thesp]

PS - kill RogueBen.

PS - don't direct the vig.

Isn't that what we've been doing with me all day?

IRONY OH SNAP

[Thesp]

PS - kill RogueBen.

PS - don't direct the vig.

Isn't that what we've been doing with me all day?

IRONY OH SNAP

I saw nothing but gentle suggestions.

[Thesp]

[17] All bad guys (scum) have one-shot immunity against any scum group. In other words, for a scum cross-kill to occur, a bad guy must be targeted twice by the same scum group. If a kill fails for that reason, the targeting scum group will be told that that was why their kill failed.

Erg0 - Joe Armstrong, American Ninja - beheaded Day 3

Discounting the Goblins here for whom both 'beheaded' and 'glint of steel' don't seem to fit , this does mean Thesp is not scum doesn't it?

PS : good job MBL

I'd like to think so, but there's still the possibility I'm scum with someone else who performed the kill in a slightly different manner.

Vote: RogueBen,

for starters, though I'm trying to ponder how realistic 3 players in each scum group is.

[Thesp]

Claus - Senator Joseph McCarthy (Communist Finder) - filled full of musketballs Night 4

Communist Finder? Is this some sort of other faction or just a cruel Stoofer joke?

What's your best guess, oh purveyor of useless fluff?

[Thesp]

Also, you guys REALLY think Iammars is dumb town and not incompetent scum? I had a really hard time vigging Skruffs over him. Read his play and tell me where all the bizarre statements and stuff come from.

...

Also, in Iammars' big "analysis" post, his biggest batch of comments was on the confirmed vig. Who'd be concerned about a vig enough to waste valuable scumhunting time pestering them? A: scum

What do you think of the fact that Iammars claimed to be a Vampire Hunter well before a Communist Hunter came to light?

[Thesp]

Saferoleclaims? Seems odd.

[Thesp]

Unvote: RogueBen, Vote: mikeburnfire

. This does not mean RogueBen does not need to die.

[Thesp]

I switched because I think mikeburnfire needs some attention, as I think he's scum, too.

I do like the RogueBen hate, though.

[Thesp]

Thesp, you're not being very helpful.

It would be appreciated if you actually did something useful for the town.

I see this as highly ironic.

[Thesp]

Then you're looking at it wrong.

Really? I could have sworn I'd brought attention to Skruffs (who later turned out to be scum via MBL), helped keep the ball rolling D1, joined the bandwagon against Kaleidoscope, drawn strong attacks from another scum (Guardian),

daykilled

scum Erg0 (whom I also supported the lynch of), and brought attention to RogueBen and mikeburnfire (whom I think are also likely scum, and neither had received much substantive attention until then). Meanwhile, you've said almost nothing on anyone except Erg0 and I (with the recent exception of comments on Iammars). My apologies for not being helpful.

What do you think about mikeburnfire?

[Thesp]

The Fonz, what's distancing?

Your statement on Erg0-Mgm doesn't make sense to me, given that Mgm was town, but perhaps you mean "distancing" to be something different than I understand it to be.

[Thesp]

What do you think about mikeburnfire?

I've disagreed with me on quite a few issues, but his play here does not substantially from his play as I remember it in Lights Out 2. I see no reason to suspect him at this point.

Get off your high horse, Thesp, and start justifying your opinions.

I will be happy to elaborate on my opinions in time, as I'd hope it's fairly evident I appreciate being able to make assertions, ponder them, get reactions, and speak further later. You, however, are still refraining from making substantive moves on anyone today. Who do you think is scum? Best guesses? Seriously, I feel like you're posting, but just wasting time.

I like cicero's post above.

[Thesp]

Why

shouldn't

we lynch you again, like we did once already?

Do you think this is a good idea?

[Thesp]

Why

shouldn't

we lynch you again, like we did once already?

Do you think this is a good idea?

No i do not think it is a good idea.

Let me rephrase my question. cicero, do you think this is a good idea?

[Thesp]

Ask a real question, get a real answer. I'm waiting.

I'm asking because it's somewhat unclear to me as to whether or not you think it's a good idea to lynch ooba. If it should be obvious to me, can you clarify it anyway?

[Thesp]

Ask a real question, get a real answer. I'm waiting.

I'm asking because it's somewhat unclear to me as to whether or not you think it's a good idea to lynch ooba. If it should be obvious to me, can you clarify it anyway?

I thought it was a good idea to pressure Ooba on what he did and see where it led. If I was sure for sure he was scum I'd vote Ooba and say something like "guys, I think Ooba's the play." Final decision on voting Ooba would follow interrogation. Why are you interrupting my process?

/frustrated artist.

Thanks. I'll get out of the way now.

[Thesp]

It's too late now. But it's a serious question: Why were you interrupting with such an odd question? What's your motivation in interrupting that flow?

I thought the flow was over, and I think the likelihood of ooba being scum is very low (though I acknowledge the possibility). I like you spurring him into action, while simultaneously thinking that a desire to lynch ooba would be very odd.

[Thesp]

Why is it low? Because the lynch failed?

This is a substantial part of the reason, yes. (This is also why I acknowledge it's not 100% likely he's town.)

[Thesp]

CES, MBL, where are you?

[Thesp]

Gotcha.

[Thesp]

Unvote: mikeburnfire, Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum

for the trifecta.

[Thesp]

Unvote: Cogite Ergo Sum, Vote: RogueBen.

wagonwagonwagonwagonwagonwagonwagonwagonwagonwagonwagon

(PS - Don't forget about mikeburnfire & CES.)

[Thesp]

RogueBen needs to claim or die.

[Thesp]

CLAIM. NOW. You can worry about catching up later.

[Thesp]

I think this is worth confirming at this point and outing his partner, while I think I know who his partner is (if he's not lying). What do you all think?

[Thesp]

Note that Scope claimed a mason-like role, and was not tested, and subsequently found to be lying.

There was a substantially different reason with Kaleidoscope for not testing his.

[Thesp]

Out with it so we can move on. :impatient:

[Thesp]

Kison needs to post.

[Thesp]

I'm not, either.

There's one more person, UA, who I think could conceivably be his partner, though I think it's doubtful. If he's scum & there's 3 to a group, I'd bet that Kison's his partner.

[Thesp]

If we're dealing with 3-3-3 scum teams, we have 0-2-2 left.

[aside]Why the heck would MBL kill Iammars? That's a terrible play.[/aside]

Time to find Erg0 and Guardian's buddies.

[Thesp]

I think that's too many scum. Town is playing too good a game to be at LyLo. Something in our assumptions is wrong here.

There are four nightkilling groups that have been repeatedly taking slices out of the town instead of each other.

I'm not a fan of mass claiming at this point. The

last

thing we need is for a couple more semi-power roles that are a threat to the scum to out themselves and make the scum decide not to finally take a shot at one another tonight.

I agree with this. Kelly Chen once said on an argument about the town controlling its own destiny that if several groups gang up on the town, the town

should

lose. Strictly speaking, on the town-controlled kills, we're only batting 50% (with minor debate, but it's around that figure).

We're already in a losing position, and either one of the remaining scum teams is clearly in a better position to win than we are. We might as well do the best we can to fight it out to the bitter end.

I'm still working on my player rundown, I hope to have it finished today, but I can't make promises on it.

I want to see some good substance form CES

soon

.

[Thesp]

Also, mike is town. (Just fyi.)

I kind of want to hear more behind this.


My quick buddy-analysis of each player:

cicero

Makes sense as Guardian buddy, but unlikely as Erg0 buddy.

Cogito Ergo Sum (replaced Samruc)

Would be a little odd for him to go after Erg0 as he did upon entry, but certainly not out of the question. Has been generally unhelpful, a trait I see more from CESscum than CEStown. Samruc is near worthless for info either way.

Kison

Somewhat less likely to be Guardian's partner. I'm not fond of how he's pushed on UltimaAvalon (though I like the push) - I think he's looking for an excuse to lynch rather than for scum there. Erg0's only comments on anyone still alive are against Kison, but when Erg0's back is already clearly against the wall.

Lawrencelot (replaced Flameaxe)

Flameaxe could really be scum with either one (though slightly less likely with Guardian, it would still fit) - I don't like his play at all. Lawrencelot comes in too late to be analyzed much on it, but would fit more strongly with Erg0 than with Guardian. I like Lawrencelot's play though, it seems more likely from town than scum.

ooba (replaced Rosso Carne) - not lynched Day 1

I know it's a mistake to disregard him entirely, but I'm not seeing a compelling reason to lynch him. I don't think he's partners with Erg0, nor with Guardian. Highest on the likely-to-be-town list.

Primate (replaced JordanA24)

Notably, Mgm asks him Day 1:

You've slipped up. You're a ninja, aren't you?

On something relatively minor. I think this is actually the info he's dropping. I think it's worth exploring.

The Fonz

I've disagreed with a number of things he's said, but I think he's more likely to be town here. His interactions with Guardian & Erg0 are odd otherwise.

UltimaAvalon

He makes an awful lot of sense as scum with either Guardian or Erg0.

Thesp's list o' the scummzors, guaranteed to be accurate in some way, shape or form currently unrealized:

Goblins

Cogito Ergo Sum
UltimaAvalon

Ninjas

Primate
Kison

Vote: Primate.

[Thesp]

Why do you have it in for me, Thesp?

I mean, I gave the town mike's alignment yesterday. That's more than Kison or UA has done.

You do have a point there. For what it's worth, after my analysis, I do think you're less likely to be scum than a couple of people, but I do have several people who I think are considerably more likely to be town than you. You don't give us a lot to work with.

[Thesp]

Looking over the entirety of Mgm's posting, I don't agree with your theory, Thesp. Mgm never votes for or mentions Jordan. More than anything, I think it's just his knowledge speaking. He's looking for ninjas, so he's more likely to think he sees one.

I do think this is entirely possible, but his comment seems so...

odd

, otherwise. Coupled with his voting on me, I think he found one, and was just trying to hide. I may be horribly wrong, and I know it's not at all clear cut.

CES, what do you think of other things and people? Have some guesses for us?

[Thesp]

CES, what do you think of other things and people? Have some guesses for us?

Well, my current point of view is:

Obv town:
CES

Cleared by role:
ooba
Thesp

Tends towards town:
cicero
The Fonz (his play here is markedly different from Smalltown)

Which leaves:
Primate
Lawrencelot
Kison
Ultima Avalon
as scum, but I'm having real troubles differentiating between these four.

This is much more helpful. Thanks!

[Thesp]

If you're voting "yay", then I'd like to see you respond to this:

If the mass claim gives us any insight into alignment, then that'll probably lead to scum killing the wrong people.

My vote is a definite "nay".

I agree on this entirely, even though I still think CESscum is being deliberately obtuse and is refusing to talk about his partner, even in circumspect ways.

People need to vote. Now. Let's get some action going - make your best guesses.

[Thesp]

I'm leaning towards one of UA or Primate myself. I didn't like a lot of what Primate was pushing yesterday, and his sudden radio silence after being asked some follow-up questions felt like a cheap out card to play.

Yeah, I'm sorry about my lurking. Slipping back into bad habits. I'll make my case against you now.

I'm against the mass-claim because we have two confirmed innocents in the game, one in the form of the pirate protector, and the other in the form of the vanilla townie. We out them, and regardless of how small the game is, the scum

will

kill them instead of each other. If we run up the townie and the PP today, then I'll be in favour of a mass claim of the remaining people, but I just don't think the benefit outweighs the cost at this point.

Who do you think is scum? Care to place a vote? Care to talk about anyone in any meaningful fashion so as to move the game along, or are you content to sit and stall?

[Thesp]

Thesp, did you read the first bit of that post where I said I was, at present (as in literally, now), making a case against Kison? Does that answer your questions?

I missed that. It helps - it's going somewhere. Who else do you think is scum? There are presumably 4 out there.

[Thesp]

This is more helpful, but I'd advise against town lists right now. (I know, too late, I shouldn't have myself, etc.) I'm interested in who the four scum are more than the town right now.

Thanks.

[Thesp]

Brawl.

I been down with massclaim since Day 1. That being said, I dont see what CES is trying to get at with

If the mass claim gives us any insight into alignment, then that'll probably lead to scum killing the wrong people.

With 3 dead finders, 2 dead and one obsolete protector, a dead vig, and a claimed dayvig, I'm not sure what else is left that we need to protect.

We're already going to lose - we're pretty far behind, and there's no way we can lynch all the scum before they kill us. Why would we give them confirmed innocents to think of as better targets? I mean, if I were scum, I'd be trying to cross-kill the other team because they'll be the competition and not the town, but I don't think the scum are all that smart.

Also, the difference between cicero and everyone else who has UA in some sort of scum list is cicero actually has a reason.

This statement would be more correct if you'd said "the difference between cicero and everyone else who has UA in some sort of scum list is cicero actually has

provided

a reason".

I like UA as scum even more now.

[Thesp]

Really? If I were scum, I'd be trying to use the lynch to kill opposing scum, while using the nightkill to kill Townies.

But why in the world would you kill townies at night at this point (especially since the other scum group is doing that well enough)? It's clear that the town is screwed as it is and will be nightkilled into oblivion. When I try to play a game, I play to win, not to win big. Right now, the biggest threat to the scum isn't the town, it's the rival scum group. I see

zero

reason to give scum any slight incentive to be stupid. After all, if someone is going to be run up and has an almost certainly pro-town role, won't they claim it anyway?

I don't see what the big deal is about massclaiming when we have several delectable, likely-to-be-scum suspects.

[Thesp]

So massclaim will probably help them avoid the townies and hit the other scum .. And will make sure we don't mislynch now too

Don't we already have several excellent suspects for scum?

Why aren't we pushing

them

with votes and push them to claim?

I think the massclaim talk is a distraction, willfully or not. Let's get to killing Primate, pushing CES for more clarity, and get everyone off their tails and

doing scumhunting

.

[Thesp]

I still can't wrap my ahead around the logic that Scum

want

to nightkill other scum. It'll take twice as long for them to make a kill, and it gives Town the chance to recuperate and retaliate.

Why? There are

4

scum, and 5 town left. We've been getting killed by scores every night. (Note: This is making assumptions about the setup - it could be more or less dangerous, but this seems reasonably comfortable at this point.) If we were up against just one mafia group we'd be at LyLo, and they just need to orchestrate a mislynch to win. Up against two, however, it just takes one night of multi-kills at any point remaining in the game for us to be in a position

where we can no longer control our own fate

. (It can also be shown that there's a reasonable chance we are at practical LyLo.) At that point, one of the mafia groups will win, it's just a matter of which one.

I would put money on the one that got a crosskill in first.

Also, I've noticed you are still adamantly refusing to scumhunt. Who do you think are scum? Why?

Primate, what do you think of UltimaAvalon?

[Thesp]

I am Darth Vader, and the Dark Side grants me two passive abilities. First is, I'm a Miler, and every investigator will find me to be their bad guy. The second I will carry with me to the grave, because I'm still hoping for the chance for it to go off.

No. Claim it or die.

[Thesp]

You're at L-1, and Thesp, who isn't currently voting you, will if you don't reveal your second ability. Do it.

QFT.

[Thesp]

Anyway, i'd like to know what the second ability is. If you are a something like a guy who kills the guy who hammers , i'd rather have the second most scummiest person do it than thesp.

This.

We need to know now so we can force someone to hammer you, and we can't delay right now. We need to do it fast, so you'd better claim now if this is the case. (Or, please explicitly state that the quoted is not the case.)

[Thesp]

Not worth the time.

Vote: UltimaAvalon.

[Thesp]

Thesp's list o' the scummzors, guaranteed to be accurate in some way, shape or form currently unrealized:
Goblins
Cogito Ergo Sum
UltimaAvalon

Ninjas
Primate
Kison

It occurs to me that this post was substantially below average for scumfinding. Smooth job, goblins.

A particular note of awesomeness should go to ooba, who correctly guided what little there was of the town through the endgame to an improbable successful win.

I really was quite disappointed by substandard play from Fritzler, and subsequently from MBL (though I'm glad he killed Skruffs, the Iammars kill in particular was terrible). I also want to kick Mgm in the shins for suggesting from beyond the grave that I was scum. Note: When Mgm says I'm scum, I'm probably town. Of course, this game had several moments where I wasn't exactly shining, as above. =P

I'm a bit surprused at how fast the end went - I was gone for a good part of the week while work was crushing my soul, and I saw the thread opened for D7, and almost posted something along the lines of "sorry I haven't posted yet guys, I agree with

Vote: No Lynch

", because I didn't see my death scene (it was in a separate post from the day opening)! I'm glad that catastrophe was avoided.

I'm not sure how much conctrol the town had over this game, and while it was fun, I think I'll stick to games where my actinos are more specifically significant rather than randomly significant.

Thanks everyone for a great game.