Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Aureal]

Oh no, I wasn't able to replenish the diminishing quota of As! Nooooooooooooo

Oh well, Alianna was probably SK anyway, just look at that knife!

[Aureal]

Anyway I've read to about page 20. I see Drew was a sticky wagon early on and that slot was miseliminated. So I'm wondering if that gamestate suggests that scum are more hand-off type letting town just run up whatever wacky townie gets the side eye the most. A more active Mafia team would perhaps try to get some other townie pushed out and leave that slot as a later bad push?

[Aureal]

Why do u not think enchant is productive rn ?

you have experience with enchant right? I think wagoning enchant is similar to wagoning N_M -- often a good idea, but unlikely to lead to anything very telling from him

like: if enchant is scum, cool, partners might bus or might just stall out plus I'm not likely to get anything from him. if enchant is town, cool, scum might back the wagon or they might let it stall out because they want to keep him around as a later game lim instead of burning the lim D1

this is not me shitting on enchant but again, similar to N_M, he's limbait and regardless of alignment I don't think the wagons on him are likely to be that productive or to spur other people into having interesting reactions or to do things that are revealing of alignment whereas a wagon elsewhere is more likely to lead to those things imo

HEY!!! No stealing my thoughts before I've even joined the game to have them!!!

But really on the rest of that, since when is Enchant limbait? Don't think I've ever seen it happen before this. I think he probably was just in too much of a hole from Drew's position? (I'm still reading ofc)

[Aureal]

do people actually tr invisibility? or like if I was a hypothetical vig… would people be mad if I shot invis tonight?

Hmmmmmmm... *eyes Invis NK*

[Aureal]

I'm just getting to page 30 and I'm tired so I don't know if I'll get all caught up tonight. For the moment here's where that puts me.

I'm thinking Aisa town, the weird vote reaction test on my slot doesn't make sense coming from scum. And her sudden unprompted turnabout on Andante, why would scum do that? Feels a lot like I do about Andante, lol. One moment you're like ok Andante town then just suddenly such doubt because she's so volatile. I thought Andante town for a while too (I peeked at this game a few days back when the slot was getting replaced and read her ISO) but I'm not positive, especially after the weird question about Invis and since she didn't get shot.

I feel fairly good about skitter. Her early reads did not mesh with mine well, and I recall her having a pretty opposite take on the game when I played a newbie with her before too so that kinda lines up. Plus her thought that Menalque could be Enchant's partner is the same way she was thinking regarding a similar situation there.

Menalque I was worried about for a bit since I saw nothing for quite a while, but I realized he was vla and waited to see if he became active, and he did. I hear he has a pretty anemic scum game so he's seeming fine now.

I'm watching implosion be a clear driver of the wagon on Enchant and going "scum wouldn't be

that

brazen... Right?" So I'm not like totally sold on implosion, it is kinda weird that there's apparently no counterwagoning, but probably not a Mafia slot?

Slots I'm most concerned about probably Dunnstral (all he's done is complain that Alianna's reads were against low activity slots), CSF (haven't seen much analysis or activity there), Alianna (kinda vanished but probably for non AI reasons), Cephrir (complaining about being bored and waving the Enchant wagon onward are all I really recall here). And I guess sheep falls more into the crowd that needs careful watching still because they're active but I'm just not really getting anything to townread.

[Aureal]

Page 36. Wow. Lol.

I liked CSF's coming for Dunnstral, that was a pretty good point that it's weird to apparently randomly look at the activity overview in order to shade someone's reads.

Then when a counterwagon is actually threatening Dunn, sheep starts acting like Enchant is a done deal, don't look elsewhere, gotta do this. I do not like this.

Pretty sad that the last votes on Enchant are town though. Could consider Menalque there as I think someone suggested, but I still think he's town, even more than before. Just wrong town. That's a silly town gambit, not a scum one.

[Aureal]

I just think like, obviously statistically there is wolf, but relatively the wagon felt very town-driven. like I think this wagon has way less of an expected value of wolves contained than the average d1 wagon on a villager so I think "since we know there's a wolf on the wagon let's focus there" is agendaly misapplied to this game

I infact think youre far more likely to find wolf off-wagon, for whiteknighty reasons + if there are people who didnt get the enchant!wolf push, that feels legit a little >rand w

Why exactly is it that you think this wagon was so much less likely to have scum on it?

pedit: g'whoa, implosionmath

[Aureal]

And I'm the first replacement to catch up! Yay, I win!

I feel a little better about Ceph from the skitter push on him here. Not because of all the silly "I'm so towny" stuff, but I do find some credibility in the idea that he's made his meta case on Enchant before and finds it exasperating to have to spell it out for people again.

Hmmmm. At this point I think I'm going to VOTE: Dunnstral. Still not seeing anything towny here, the only seeming to pop up to argue with people scumreading him isn't a great look, and the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.

[Aureal]

the counter wagon on him seemingly speeding up pressure to launch Enchant could be telling.

Can you point to where this happens?

CSF put a fourth vote on you with a pretty decent argument that could've actually brought your wagon into focus as a serious thing. Instead it started getting waved off by sheep in particular as a done deal that needed to happen.

Actually, Invis NK after she was the sixth vote on Enchant could be scum trying to get us to think this sudden haste to take out Enchant was all nice and towny?

On the subject of Andante, I try not to assign ai reasons to replace puts (I think a few mods do have a rule against discussing it). It's pretty clear though that she left Team Mafia because people were very pissed at her, and I don't blame her at all. Her scum teammates literally told her not to sign up to play with them again.

[Aureal]

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

Uh, why? If sheep was trying to make sure Enchant got flipped rather than you, surely the obvious implication would be that you're likely scum partners? Is it very likely that scum goes out of the way trying to wave a town wagon onward when the growing counterwagon is also town?

[Aureal]

At the end of the day you've arrived at voting me because someone else is playing scummy to you

At the end of the day that's a mischaracterization that makes me feel better about where my vote is.

Like even if the possible sheep association thing was absolutely the only reason I had to think you could be scum, and it's not; in a vacuum it'd be a coin flip whether to vote you or sheep to investigate the association. But it's not even a vacuum, you're getting voted already and sheep isn't so obviously it'd make more sense to vote you.

[Aureal]

@sheep

I'm somewhat questioning ceph and implo now. I don't really think csf is town

I'm still somewhat sketchy on andante's slot tbh

ehhh im on a pretty different wavelength, I think ceph+implo are the 2 who feel the game most similarly to me in a way that's probably just villa lo l

Can you explain why they felt the game most similarly to you?

@sheep

---
I think I'm like at {Dunn, Delta, Aureal, sheep} in terms of slots I want to look at first, maybe with a chance of skitter once I reread skitt vs ceph

Aisa, what do you think about Dunn's pushback against my vote?

I don't like how consensus the above feels

What exactly is consensus there?

[Aureal]

However, whiteknighting townies is a thing, scum not always pushing the obvious suspects is a thing, and implosion talks almost like he has never seen the scum playstyle of "pop in a couple times a day, state a couple reads, and get out" (<3)

It definitely is a thing and that post does sort of give me those vibes now that you point it out. Maybe because talking about it in terms of 'liking' is reminding me of another game where scum slightly pocketed me by lightly pushing against my wagon (which his partner was constantly trying to stir up ofc). Okay yeah, that it was phrased like "I don't like Aureal but I don't want them gone" but I think that's because he was also trying to pocket LLD.

[Aureal]

Seeking a replacement for Deltabreedy.

Kill this immediately

What, you think it's contagious? The slot might be slightly cursed with illness and now Delta's VLA for a couple days like he usually is this time of week and so he can't get into the game after all, I don't think that's scum-indicative.

[Aureal]

So Ceph, if the double-replacement seriously affects your attitude towards a slot, what are you going to think if Andante/Meg becomes someone else too?

[Aureal]

Why does it matter for one slot but not the other?

[Aureal]

What are your reads other than Dunn, Aureal?

Well, I tried to get my subconscious to answer this since I was getting in bed when you asked. But all that really came through by morning was something about Egix following people and being suspicious by covering the peephole in the door so nobody could see who was sneaking around outside.

THANKS A LOT SUBCONSCIOUS

I don't understand the hating on fire's slot. I think Alianna did one thing that comes off badly and I'm not convinced it's ai, it could well just be unfortunate. I dislike the replacements therefore scummy idea that's getting pushed. For all you know Delta might have looked at the game and went "oh shit Aureal is here, goodbye!" I'm not terribly familiar with the play of either but I don't feel like they're the type who fears being scum and ditches because of it. I'm getting somewhat alarmed by the push here by some of the same people who were pushing Enchant for easy reasons also pushing fire for a silly easy reason. I've heard this person is pretty good, what are people afraid they're going to do? I've not registered any actual arguments against what fire has done. I actually liked their debate with skitter- I didn't entirely follow but I think it was useful to know that she does actually have some idea how Andante plays. I had assumed that she didn't, it makes me a little more skeptical of her now.

Not thrilled with Egix so far either, especially that last "what you want" post, lol. But I don't think the slot can be scum with Dunn, from the way CSF pushed him.

Pedit: lots of posts since I started writing, whee

[Aureal]

I kind of see why Menalque immediately responds that way to fire's 1203 beyond just the post calling Menalque out. It feels like a very overwrought thought process. Like this assertion that Menalque must have had the whole spiel planned out from before the woo vote as town when like, part of what he was doing was asking questions.

like fire, you're saying "I don't find his reads progression believable, it doesn't seem like he genuinely had this planned since before the woo vote and all he does is ask a bunch of questions then give this big reveal" and like. yeah... the point of questions is to change your mind? I think at least part of this is me misinterpreting something but this whole post from fire just feels like either scum having a conclusion that they think they can justify and wanting to justify it, or possibly town who got a gut scumread on Menalque from reading and is now trying to back-justify why that scumread makes sense in the context of his progression without having really thought much about it before typing the words out because the read actually came from gut. And it doesn't sound like that's what fire

thinks

the read is. This probably doesn't make any sense though so alas

Nah, I think it makes sense and I think it's a fair point. I promptly called Mena's gambit towny because it felt justified by what had come before in my read, so it's a little strange for fire to have the opposite read. But I guess if everyone always thought the same way, this wouldn't even be a game people play.

[Aureal]

I'm getting somewhat alarmed by the push here by some of the same people who were pushing Enchant for easy reasons also pushing fire for a silly easy reason.

Go on

About...? The easy reason is the slot repeatedly getting replaced. Ceph and implosion in particular seemed to take issue there.

This stuff with Mena is much better from what I've seen, but I gotta get back to focus on work, no OT for me today.

[Aureal]

I was wondering who you took issue with and what the silly easy reason is. I see 1 person who commented on the double replacement thing (cephrir) and you took that and ran with it and are trying to paint the picture that the only reason they are being voted is because of that.

I am absolutely not doing that, I'm noting the increased pressure to flip the slot since the new replacement. You can't tell me that 1136 is not trying to say the slot is scum because of the replacement. It is absolutely doing so. And implosion agrees with that in 1197. That's not saying that those people don't have other reasons- do I really need to list everyone's reasoning for their scumread in every post in order to take issue with one of them??

That said, I'm pondering the dynamics here some more since the Menalque argument. Menalque certainly comes off even townier now, and I'm getting wary of fire. Except, the nagging thought about how focused fire was on Menalque. If fire is scum, why is he focusing on arguing with Mena like he did rather than trying to more broadly push back and get people off him? Town fire would more likely want to sort Menalque than scum fire, right?

Pedit: is fire reading my posts before I post them, lol

[Aureal]

That should be 1138, not 1136, didn't double-check that post number, oops.

[Aureal]

I dislike the replacements therefore scummy idea that's getting pushed.

I don't *think* anyone was actually pushing that idea? I'm certainly not.

I don't think fire is

obvscum

here and I won't be surprised if he flips town but I am definitely on board with flipping him.

No? Maybe I've misinterpreted you agreeing with Cephrir, who definitely was trying to add fuel to the wagon because of the replacement. I guess you did say earlier that you don't like to ascribe meaning to replacements, which is more aligned with my thinking, so I'm confused why you started answering for Cephrir about the subject.

[Aureal]

damn ur right the readlist that i made an hour after making posts describing reactions to some posts i saw while catching up doesn't line up with the thoughts expressed in those posts. how did i mess that up. ugh. i really thought nobody would notice

i truly am a terrible scum player

I think this one's a fair point by fire, not the 'how could I be such bad scum thing' but I don't think a readlist necessarily needs to perfectly line up with random thoughts that were being expressed during a replacement's catch-up? IDK, I rarely do readlists unless I'm specifically trying to organize my thoughts, but the process of organizing the list forces me to think more about all of the slots and therefore could probably end up looking different than might be expected from what I've been focused on talking about.

[Aureal]

fire/skitter/egix (which is very much Not The Scumteam lol)

Totally didn't have something like that team in the back of my head for like an hour yesterday.

>_>

Why is implosion so confusing?

[Aureal]

- Feel free to address any of my megapost!

It was multiball, it wasn't fake spew, lol. I totally wanted to find the Fire Mafia! The only difference between that and my towngame was awareness of my own partner. Not saying I won't still be able to be convincing if I ever manage to roll mafia in a regular game, but we all have yet to find that out.

I need to find some way to steal Andante's role rolls so I can play scum/PRs more, she always gets them and I never do.

On skitter, I'm not sure where you're getting certainty from. I said I felt "fairly good" and that was my initial impression from catch-up, not a deep look into her. My read has gotten shakier since then as more focus has been put on her. I really understand what you meant with that post of yours about feeling like you need to get a read on her and that's part of the reason I'm still pretty sold on you being town.

The Mena/implosion hedging I'm not completely sure what you mean? I don't even talk about implosion in the post you cite. I think I worded my comment about Mena poorly though - I was saying that we could consider Mena as being on the Enchant wagon (as implosion had suggested in 949 and I was vaguely remembering since I was reading some new stuff as I did my catch-up). Not anything about Menalque's alignment- I was putting him down as town for that and the read has only gotten stronger since to where he's my strongest townread.

CSF/Dunn... hmm, now that you bring it up again, something about that activity overview stuff is now pinging me. I thought it was a good point because I never just randomly open up activity overview - I use it to see when someone last posted if it seems like they've been absent, or maybe once in a great while if I'm curious about post count, but it's not something I use regularly. From Team Mafia though, I think CSF might actually make more use of it, she used it first when she went to look at my game. I'm not actually sure what this says about them though, lol. Is it weird for CSF to call someone out for using activity overview if she uses it in a similar manner, or is it her being able to discern someone using it in a scummy way because she uses it for information and has thought more about ways to use it? Hmmm, gonna have to think on that a bit more.

On implosion/Ceph, I'm still townreading implosion, but as I've indicated I am very confused by what he's been saying because he says he agrees with Ceph but his position does not actually agree with Ceph. Cephrir, on the other hand, feels like he's been taking the same trajectory as implosion on a lot of things and I find that more concerning.

- What do you think of Ceph's case on Alianna?

Hmmm. It's not too bad but I'm not really feeling much more convinced than when I read it the first time.

The first bit about the .05% scum thing could be scummy, or it could just be curiosity. I see people scumread this 'self-awareness' trait a lot, but some people just display it much more readily. I think Alianna might be one- I've not played with her but I have seen comments that she gets wrongly scumread easily and that feels like the sort of character trait that would match up.

The readlist being easy/matching with activity, again it's another thing that could be done by scum sure. But I recall feeling about the same when I got to it so it's hard to really complain about it. It's just... the sort of thing someone who doesn't have a lot of firm thoughts yet is likely to put out too.

The rest of the stuff about hiding behind others, yeah, same sort of thing. Could be scum, could be town who's not very invested/opinionated, and her fading activity makes me seriously consider the latter.

- Who would you kill right now if you had to, and why?

Merlyn 'cause she's always scum and I totally should've caught her in dividing connor except I was more pre-occupied with

than being brave and bold enough to hammer her in that game.

But for real, that's what I'm feeling fuzzy on now and trying to figure out. I've got a few townreads but I'm spinning my wheels a bit trying to sort the other slots. Dunn I'm still not sold on so my vote's still kinda stayed there. I would've been okay with fire for a while there during the Menalque debate but like I said, I don't get why a scum fireisredsir would start going at Mena like that. Mena thinks it was to make him a possible miselimination but I don't know why scum would feel any reason to do that? There's a couple others that'd be maybes which I should really look more into regarding interactions and such. I need to buckle down and dig into this game a bit more this weekend, I've been going mostly on feels so far.

[Aureal]

@aureal, @implo, fire votes pls?

I would be willing to do sheep > fire today if that means not doing skitter

*spins, falls down*

I'm trying to poke at a few ISOs, but I feel like nobody's really addressed the concern about the fire wagon that I've brought up a couple of times. Can you go more in depth into why you're still set on fire being scum? He's explained that he was intentionally being more aggressive than needed to test your reaction, but I guess you don't believe that? I still just don't see much reason for scum fire to try to take you down into limmable territory as you said- you're probably the most widely townread slot in the game. If fire is scum, he knows you're town and thus are probably going to just pull out another big towny explanation in response to his push at you, right?

[Aureal]

I was going to write about aureal being wolfy but that post resolves a lot of my concerns

this game is just fucked so weird

You've got some pretty weird progression on my slot, lol. Here, I just ISOed you, here's a few of my thoughts to which I'll add that.

votes Drew in 240, no reasoning given and I'm not seeing anything coming soon afterwards
poking skeptically at other people like Alianna (108, 242) CSF (241), Woo (311, 313), Aisa (401, 482, 487) but apparently not skeptical enough to move off the unexplained Drew vote
tries to ask people about skitter, has expressed no read (495, 555)
566 is a readlist with Drew at the bottom, still no explanation for that, just feels confident (655, 665)
then 874 and 875 basically just say Enchant should be resolved, still only because "not doing legit stuff"
D2 opening is weird, thinks Aisa's movements at end of D1 is wolfy and I've no idea why
lots more concern about Aisa throughout the day, pulling back a bit (1135, 1323)
read on CSF keeps going back and forth
doubt about fire wagon, doubt about skitter, townreads me for no reason (1367) and just now expresses worry that was never expressed prior but it's okay because my post cleared it up

dunn is a bit of an enigma and i have trouble seeing beneath the surface for him so he's difficult for me to read

my original suspicion was more of a "i could see dunn being scum this game" than anything with a good reason behind it

i also don't really like that aureal has been voteparked there while spinning around not knowing what to do with the two main wagons

Well, after that I think I'm back to my Dunn/sheep thing. So yeah.

Feels like we're more likely to go for sheep here from what people have been saying, unless Merlyn is being really convincing where I couldn't be (which is totally possible)? Can we make one of them a wagon? Merlyn whatcha think about sheep?

[Aureal]

Whatcha thinking about sheep now, fire? I can try looking at skitter's ISO too but your argument seems primarily meta-based and it feels like you've back a good bit off of it since arguing with her. So I don't know that I'm going to get much out of it. I was going to vote sheep here but now Merlyn's voting Dunn so I'd literally be going back to vanity wagoning and hoping people follow.

[Aureal]

Looking at that ISO it looks to me like a list of what sheep HASN'T done- post concrete reads or pressure people they find sus. I know that sometimes town can run around being indecisive though and I don't think this is strong enough to vote for them. I'll stick with Dunn or skitter.

Yeah, pretty much. Primarily from day one stuff, where he just plopped a vote down on Enchant and it stayed there the entire day without any explanation. Like it's just sooooo obvious that it doesn't need any. It feels more like trying to stir some pots to look busy/hopefully gin up some suspicion for later on other slots because this push doesn't need it. I suppose this is possible for town too, it just seems more wolf-motivated. Like, early in D2 sheep talks about how he felt on the same page as implosion and Ceph (943) which feels more like trying to latch onto them for cover because sheep didn't actually push Enchant at all other than those posts late in the day making it out as a done deal, must stay the course. And now he feels like he's doing the same with me and my suspicion of the big wagons.

[Aureal]

skitter ISO thoughts (in a list bulletpoint because I don't know why the hell the site keeps wanting to screw up line breaks and randomly put a full empty line between lines sometimes but not others)

• starts with a good bit about Invis being town
  pushes at Andante
  doesn't understand Drew wagon in 382, but he's in 2nd lowest tier in 389 and is cool with a wagon on bottom three, just a few minutes later?
  promptly gets asked about the read change by CSF and explains it's because of implosion's point (397) but this still seems really weird, literally all the posts from 382 to 389 were skitter, there was nothing in between to change her view of it
  votes CSF without reasoning after the Andante claim, only prior reasoning was in 384; CSF was on the same tier as Drew in the prior readlist
  asks sheep about CSF (536)
  "can vote Enchant" (549) shortly after asking implosion how confident he is there (537)
  thinks Menalque's Woo vote is strange (564) (and it was a ploy, lol, yeah I think she gets some townpoints there)
  willing to go Enchant, suspicion of Mena for diverting it
  trying to get Andante to explain why she thinks Enchant is town
  "should just be flipping Enchant here" (840)
  D2 skeptical of Ceph and implosion, votes Ceph (937), has no read there
  interesting theory about how the end of D1 went in 960, but the post 861 which supports that she felt the game was dead almost feels a bit planted, it'd only been a few hours since a post and it was a weekday morning for probably most people?
  I like the push against Ceph, seems she's feeling the same way I do about Ceph and implosion where implosion's push feels real and Ceph's more fakeable.
  At the same time though it's kind of strange to go in on Ceph because she doesn't feel his conviction and ignore that sheep literally never even bothered giving reasons to vote or push Enchant? Like she doesn't think scum particularly need to be pushing it and is overlooking the Alianna and sheep slots which were there just because??
  Debating the use of 'conviction' with Ceph is weird- does anyone think having conviction carries an emotional component? I don't understand what that's supposed to mean, really, other than the emotion of 'genuine belief' which is what Ceph said? I'm confused. She proceeds to continue to be skeptical that Ceph had genuine belief. (972) She comes back to it in response to implosion (998) and says she reassessed and I'm still just not really sure what this was all about.
  passing comments about being skeptical of Alianna/Dunn/sheep moving to kinda wanting to vote sheep (1091) into more in-depth talk of degrading tr of sheep (1107)
  goes for fire fairly soon after he replaces in and uuuuuuh do I really want to go through all this argument from yesterday again already not really

So yeah, there's some things I'm leery of here, if it really comes down to fire v. skitter I expect I'll go here, but there's more to like than with sheep as well so I'm really still feeling a good chance that this is TvT and don't really want to.

[Aureal]

for some reason my eyes glaze over when i try to read aureal's posts :X. I don't think this is her fault but I haven't really been able to analyze them effectively

I think this is probably rather common and contributes to my declining willingness in general to expend effort making arguments. I cannot really think of any times off the top of my head when I had a read and was able to successfully push it, even when I felt strongly about it. I spend a lot of time writing up stuff only for it to be ignored/scoffed at/scumread. So I just don't really bother so much anymore, because it feels bad to effort with such poor results.

Like, I don't think I'm even really trying to make a case here, fire is right. I have no expectations of anyone being convinced by what I say. That ISO stuff is literally just my notes for myself and if someone else gets something else out of it, swell. Lots of it is stuff that I just wanted to make note of because it could be more helpful in the future after more flips. I did enough to figure out what direction I'd go, which is what people wanted to know and obviously something I should do anyway. It's day two, there's just not that much of a direction for me to focus in yet with no scum flip.

I do like sheep's big new post though. Sigh.

I wonder if we're going to get flavor in the yet to arrive vote count at the page top, and miss I because it got filled in later.

[Aureal]

VOTE: fire

Skitt was a counterwagon because fire is scum

Anyone who tries to save fire from being the lim today is also scum

Uh, you think two thirds of the remaining players are scum? This just isn't really a productive attitude. I'm more open to fire now but we could still, like, talk about it?

is today the day we're supposed to massclaim

Probably should, but with all the vla maybe that waits until everyone is back lest we sit around waiting for days on the last people?

[Aureal]

i actually forgot egix was in this game

Bruh, is that

really

your excuse for totally ignoring him this whole time and instead trying to point in my direction for vague reasons that seem they should apply at least as much to others like him?



Yeah, definitely getting more okay with flipping this.

i think ceph being the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons is pretty towny

Pssst, some of us were on an alternate wagon since like, when we got here, and wanted others to come along.

[Aureal]

i actually forgot egix was in this game

Bruh, is that

really

your excuse for totally ignoring him this whole time and instead trying to point in my direction for vague reasons that seem they should apply at least as much to others like him?

What about yourself? You seemed much more interested in talking about me but not so much Egix. And it's not totally clear to me why that would be.

And? That's not very comparable- I'm not the one making an argument for a scumread that was seemingly plucked at random from a group which contains many people who fit the stated argument.

Egix just conveniently reposted fire's supposed arguments why I'm scum and it boils down to "feels off" and "not trying very hard". I think it's pretty obvious that there's multiple people in the same position of not trying very hard. And "feeling off" is totally subjective meaningless fluff that anyone can use with no accountability to explain it.

If fire was genuinely sorting, how the heck did he "forget" Egix exists? Seems to me like if you think a type of behavior is suspicious you would look over the players to see who exhibits it. Not totally forget about one of them. I certainly have not forgotten Egix exists even though I usually play micros so there's still as many players in this game as I'm used to starting with. It seems like the sort of thing that someone who wanted to target someone and just backfilled some reason afterward might end up doing.

[Aureal]

i think ceph being the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons is pretty towny

Pssst, some of us were on an alternate wagon since like, when we got here, and wanted others to come along.

person a) was a part of tvt wagons and then actively worked to try to move away from them and dismantle the locked position towards the rest of the game

Who what huh? I thought you were talking about Ceph, the person who started the push on skitter and made sure the day ended there?

person b) stayed on the sidelines and mostly just wavered back and forth not wanting to sort either person in the tvt wagons for days and just let others push them

Sounds like a truly confused townie who doesn't really like the direction things are going but doesn't have the oomph to get anywhere with their own reads.

Oh wait, you're talking about me. So that's not even an accurate description. I tried to sort you pretty early on and nobody really wanted to engage with my concern about the scumread on you.

Also, if we're just stating one's own alignment as fact, how about the person who replaced into a largely scumread slot, helped organize a wagon on a townie who might have been more dangerous to scum were she not preoccupied with personal business, then started trying to lay the groundwork to push another townie once the elimination on the first seemed pretty secure?

i don't think this is the point that you think it is

also if you really believe that im scum then you shouldn't be giving yourself townpoints for staying off the wagons. i think you know that im town which is the only way this statement from you makes any sense

I'm not giving myself anything, I'm pointing out that if you're town it's pretty weird to scumread someone for having correct instincts??? But I'm really not sold that you're town anymore. You were like 30% over null and skitter 10% over null when I reviewed things towards the end of day two. You're dropping off pretty sharply now.

[Aureal]

i think from aureal herself the thing that stood out most to me as pinging AI were the posts she made surrounding me, they just felt a little... off, i guess. some of that you touched on. it seemed more positional than being a natural train of thought

i also don't really like that aureal has been voteparked there while spinning around not knowing what to do with the two main wagons

like i kinda feel like aureal has been avoiding committing to really digging into attempting to read skitter despite her being the main alternative to me at the moment and has just been focused on "but why fire??"

Spoiler: long post

ok so aureal's two latest ISO dives on sheep and skitter both left me kinda... unsatisfied. they're both just i think way too much summary for my taste, and not enough analysis of what that means for the alignment, or sort of grasping onto overall meanings or motivations beyond just "i like this" and "i don't like this". with both i was kind of left thinking, whats your point?

but, i figured, ive never played with aureal before tho so maybe this is just her style. so i went and looked through a bunch of aureal isos from previous town games to see if this is just how she tries to sort people later in the game

and i really don't think it is

most games didn't have anything like this. the analysis was a lot more clear, most of her time was spent engaging with people and picking at specific points and explaining why she had a specific read on them, etc

there were a couple ISO dives that were explicitly summaries of interactions, but rarely were they done as like, a way to make content

the closest thing i found (across like 8 games) was this post:

Spoiler: from another game

Subject: Micro 1073: Purgatory - Game Over!

A few thoughts from some browsing of AV's ISO.

Pretty sure AV is NOT scum with Ranger because of 239 and is probably just town (the opening about Aisa reads pretty towny, are scum going to talk about how they want to read someone, doesn't seem so likely). I just can't see any reason why scum would make an argument directed to their scumbuddy only to have the scumbuddy misintepret it, forcing the original questioner to have to clarify and ask again. Ranger does not look as good for the misinterpretation, though. The original question in 181 and called out to Ranger again in 209 seems pretty clear and yet Ranger somehow digs up 45 and uses it in her response which clearly is not what AV is talking about- he literally quotes the 'freaking out' in 181; and if Ranger only saw 209's question it says Arko putting Oc at e-2 was "earlier in the thread" than the freaking out and 45 clearly is not earlier than the vote in 54.

It's also seeming less likely from this that Oc/Enchant is scum with Arko/Drew, as Oc was the one who triggered Arko's e-2 shenanigans. I could see this sequence as Arko starting to break down under early pressure, then coming back the next day to see feedback in the scum PT that his OMGUS stuff was bad and he unvotes.

I'm thinking Bella is town, though I haven't dug deeper on her yet. Vander/Ranger/Arko makes sense as a team to me. Arko gets pressured early but also seems to have decent support so Ranger defends in over-the-top fashion, trying to get Vander towncred for a heaven vote by bussing Ranger and then hopefully people think Ranger was white-knighting townArko so he has a heaven shot later? The heaven voting is maybe a little weird if so but I think makes enough sense... Drew puts Vander at h-1 and Ranger doesn't hammer, but that could be because obviously Ranger shouldn't want Vander there and maybe Ranger's slot is salvageable once we see Vander was scum, but not if Ranger hammers. It seemed reasonable to wait and figure Bella or I would be amenable to voting Vander. But AV switches to Aisa, Drew votes Aisa to see if that'll get AV back, Ranger obviously can't do anything but vote Aisa, then Bella brings out her Aisa read and Enchant loves hammers.

I'm moving towards voting Ranger but we've got time and she's got stuff to deal with. And I'll keep doing more poking around.

but even this i think has a ton more analysis to it than the two we've seen this game. it references specific posts to make the points, but it's explaining an overall narrative and overall conclusions

i kinda think that stuff like aureal has done here comes when scum aren't really sure how to produce meaningful content and so they just pull up an iso and start summarizing what they see, because it looks long and has lots of links and people think "oh they efforted they're probably town"

maybe i missed a time when this was done? aureal if you have any in mind feel free to point me to them

yes, as i said, i think aureal is scum. i don't really see any world where she isn't

Like... I'm trying to understand why you now have Aureal as effectively lock scum (judging from the final bit I've quoted here) so I've ctrl-f'd her name in your iso and... well, as far as I can see, it's three things you vaguely felt, plus a meta argument.

Unless there's something I missed because I just quickly searched, I don't get why you've now seemingly gone from, like, 30 to 100.

the poe is very narrow fmpov and it got narrower when skitter flipped town

aureal is the scummiest of those slots imo and so i can't really see any team that doesn't have her on it

if people really want me to i can take some time to try to state my reasons more clearly but i really don't think that does much to help town win the game here

Ah yes, "clear reasons, why would that help anything?" What a great argument. Truly, you are trying to help town solve here.

[Aureal]

So why don't you vote sheep instead of me then?

Uh, why? If sheep was trying to make sure Enchant got flipped rather than you, surely the obvious implication would be that you're likely scum partners? Is it very likely that scum goes out of the way trying to wave a town wagon onward when the growing counterwagon is also town?

Lol @ the above

@Aisa why didn't you believe Aureal's theory here?

Uh, I'm pretty sure that lol is because she misinterpreted who a question was directed at and answered it herself. I don't think she was laughing at me.

I hope she wasn't laughing at me.

[Aureal]

You didn't start the day off by calling skitter scum for voting you and suddenly pop in to end the day hammering her?

[Aureal]

You didn't start the day off by calling skitter scum for voting you and suddenly pop in to end the day hammering her?

This isn't what your post says, and no I did not suddenly pop in I made it perfectly clear I was letting merlyn use my vote.

Who was pushing skitter before you?

And there's nothing "perfectly clear" about why you hammered. It felt pretty out of the blue to me at the time, and going back and reading your posts there still doesn't much change that impression. You didn't commit to anything with your vote, you halfheartedly pondered voting with Merlyn in a way that wouldn't raise objections if you didn't do so. Like you possibly could if she'd voted where you didn't want to vote.

[Aureal]

There is a difference between "started the push on skitter" and "was the first person pushing skitter"

No one cares about my skitter push and it was fully irrelevant by the time a second completely unrelated push occurred

You're splitting hairs. You don't think earlier events can shape later ones? Expressing suspicion of someone may well influence the opinions of others. Did you ever take it back? I don't recall you ever going "never mind everyone, I'm convinced skitter is town and my suspicion was misplaced." I haven't gone back to read it all yet but I think you just sort of stopped talking about it eventually and fire picked it up a bit later.

You can call things halfhearted with no citation if you want I guess

Something like "Merlyn I'm going to vote whichever wagon you do if you vote there" would be absolutely clear. What you actually said was:

"@merlyn thoughts on switching to sheep or aureal? i might just vote whatever you want right now bc i think you're town and i am so checked out"

Saying 'might' in no way makes it absolutely clear that you're going to immediately drop a hammer once Merlyn votes.

In fact, your actions there don't even make that much sense because you're asking her about moving to people who have no wagon. If you're really just checked out and wanted to vote with her regardless of wagon size, why not vote the wagon she was trying to push (Dunnstral)? That would've actually brought him back to being a potentially viable counterwagon with three votes and several others who had expressed openness to vote there.

[Aureal]

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

[Aureal]

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

I stand by my statements and you are either not checking whether what I've said is true or lying.

That response doesn't even make sense. I am comparing your description of your actions to fire's. I'm not even taking a position on how accurate those descriptions are yet; I'm saying that the two of them do not match and wondering why you're cool with fire describing your actions inaccurately according to how you yourself described what you were doing.

[Aureal]

Aureal let's talk about Ceph, I'm pretty sure he's town

Sure. Why's he town? I've not had him as better than null and these conversations with him have him coming off very oddly nitpicky.

Really made sure the day ended there by parking on fire for most of the day and then mind controlling merlyn

VOTE: aureal

You were parked on fire for most of the day? This all started because fire said you were "the one to actually take action and start campaigning for alternate wagons" remember? That doesn't seem to match up well with your description of your day. Why are you not seeming to take issue with the inaccurate way fire describes your action but nitpicking mine, other than obvious reason that fire's inaccuracy makes you look better?

fire's original wording was

person a) [Cephrir] was a part of tvt wagons and then actively worked to try to move away from them and dismantle the locked position towards the rest of the game

which is compatible with what Ceph was doing (pushing skitter, then parked on fire, then asked about starting a 3rd wagon, then decided to sheep Merlyn which resulted in him voting skitter)

I don't really see how that's compatible, but if you do I'll let it go. Saying "hey Merlyn what do you think about starting new wagons on one of these people" without even so much as moving off a main wagon yourself seems pretty

in

active and

not

working to me.

As far as massclaim, I've rather come around to the 'just lim fire' position. I really dislike how fire just vanished once I started pushing back at him, and has only decided to talk about implosion (a consensus townread) since then. It feels like scum realizing they could end up making me look too unpartnered if they keep engaging with me.

VOTE: fireisredsir

[Aureal]

im less sold by him than I'd hope I would be by his solving sequence

but when I think about how I'd expect him to re-evaluate the whole game today I think he did that for a bit; he went through a number of slots and talked about them reasonably, after your pushback

"only decided to talk about implosion" is just warped

He made a big detailed post about implosion. And threw out a few totally unmemorable ones on other people that contained basically nothing that had any substance.

[Aureal]

I guess it's not a lot, but Ceph is not a very high volume poster and you're rarely gonna see him screaming and yelling for a specific course of action. When I first saw the post I remember it made an impression because I was also panicking about who to eliminate.

That post is just the same sort of thing from the other quote, Ceph going "hey how about sheep or aureal instead" except accompanied by an unvote which makes it even more confusing because if you don't want your vote on fire anymore and are suggesting other candidates for it, why not actually vote one?

Also the 'cephirarge farm remembers' thing seems to still indicate suspicion of fire??

Yeah, I'm not sure what Ceph was trying to accomplish at that point based on those posts.

More in general why do you think Ceph not taking issue with fire's description of his actions is a problem? I wouldn't expect most players to go out of their way to correct townreads on them most of the time.

Yeah maybe not, but when it's coming from someone who's being widely scumread I'd kind of expect a little more scrutiny about why this person is saying that. It feels a bit partnery, like maybe fire was trying to slip a little comment in to burnish Ceph's image in a way that isn't likely to get scrutinized.

[Aureal]

Mmmm my brain is a dolphin doing all sorts of backflips rn.
What if it’s exactly Ceph + Dunn + fire? Someone please reassure me I’m not crazy and I’ve definitely got the game completely solved :3

No no, that's my thought. Your thought is that Ceph is town.

I didn't look deeply into your meta on him because I was at the dentist but I feel like Ceph was being pretty forceful and confident about Enchant and that early push on skitter?

[Aureal]

Aureal HELLO I don't know what I want but I suppose I'm here vibing

Hello!

I want to figure out if I can actually get different air filters for my heat pump or if the one it came with is actually good so long as I clean it sometimes.

This is annoyingly hard to figure out.

[Aureal]

I guess if we look at things from the perspective of "this wagon seems to have unnatural resistance" both fire and Dunn feel like they've been skating by with wagons that could very well form, yet they haven't quite managed to coalesce enough. Is anybody actually townreading Dunn? I feel like he's probably in everyone's PoE yet whenever people try to vote him it doesn't get far.

[Aureal]

I don't recall there ever really being any attempt to wagon Egix's slot. It's not widely townread but not widely scumread either. I think the current one vote from Dunn is about the peak of any sort of push there.

This is probably partly because the slot has been fairly quiet, and of course it'd be nice to be hearing a little more from Egix. I do sorta feel like if it were a scumslot though, there might be more talk about it in order to create distancing?

[Aureal]

Aureal I feel like u have copious scumreads and minimal townreads? Like dunn, ceph, fire, me ish

Does this concern u

Uuuuuh, no? My townreads (implosion, Menalque, Aisa) have been consistently stronger than my scumreads pretty much this whole time. I'm basically just starting to feel fairly confident in the latter as well.

[Aureal]

I am totally cracking up at whatever the heck is going on here. Thanks guys, how am I gonna get any sleep now? XD

(yeah I'm old and didn't play Mafia for 16 years)

[Aureal]

Considering fire tried to give meta on me earlier, I feel like he's gonna be pretty likely to check someone's link that says it's a scum game of mine, since he wouldn't have been able to find anything but the multiball.

But this is still pretty funny, you may continue.

[Aureal]

Ugh, I think I need to look even closer at the setup. I don't think the Mafia is going to know whether any further power roles are in the cop branch or other PR branches? But they should know whether there are other PRs or if the oneshot cop was it?

Also I totally didn't realize that it's possible to have only two Mafia? You're not just making that up, right? I guess that would happen if a SK was rolled, but I never saw anything saying that it would replace a Mafia member so I was thinking it'd be in addition to three Mafia.

[Aureal]

I did finally take a good look at the setup during the night phase but I guess I missed some details.

I'm supposed to be doing work right now so I'll look more closely afterwards. Still pretty much in the just lim fire camp though.

[Aureal]

That last post makes my head hurt.

But at least I figured out the possible scum teams. Because they're like, written out plainly and even though I noticed most of them had Godfathers I just didn't actually count how many roles were in them all. ._.

Still haven't figured out why the setup seems to assume that it's impossible to roll in the same PR's block of numbers more than a certain amount of times though. I want to see a 7Vs game!

[Aureal]

i lied again i got distracted looking at sheep

kinda thought going in that i was gonna scumread him more but im not as sure of that, some of the mid day 1 posting swayed me a bit. but i think if he is wolf he is just aiming for playing a super pure game where he is generally on the right side of things and is just kinda chilling to set up for endgame. which is a hard wolfgame to find. i think his posting today hasn't been as pure though, and some of the stuff surrounding skitter maybe

part of me does just want to sheep skitter on sheep idk. i wish she was still here. whos idea was it to kill her. not mine

How tf is being on both miseliminations "super pure" and "generally on the right side of things"???

[Aureal]

a big part of looking like pure innocent town is avoiding letting tmi influence your play

the enchant elim was what the majority of town wanted

and in d1 and most of d2 his takes were mostly reasonable and towny and his strongest townreads were good choices for being town.

as i pointed out i don't think he played as pure around skitter, i think that's one of the places where if he is scum, he let scum agenda influence his play more than other times

What point are you even trying to make? I cannot make heads or tails of this. Is being on a bad elimination wagon just because townies are suspicious to you or not?

And how do you know what the majority of town wanted regarding Enchant?? There's 9 to 11 town in game there and we have 3 flipped town on that wagon.

[Aureal]

So you are trying to say that being on a bad elimination without reasons of your own is towny?

[Aureal]

And please don't avoid the question about why you assert that the majority of town wanted Enchant. Two flipped town were there plus Enchant himself.

[Aureal]

So you are trying to say that being on a bad elimination without reasons of your own is towny?

lol???

lmao???

That's not an answer so I'm going to assume you're just word salading some nonsense and can't answer because you don't actually have a worldview that makes any sense.

[Aureal]

And please don't avoid the question about why you assert that the majority of town wanted Enchant. Two flipped town were there plus Enchant himself.

thread consensus was to lim enchant i don't think anyone was opposed to it besides andante iirc

Thread consensus and town consensus aren't the same thing.

[Aureal]

So you are trying to say that being on a bad elimination without reasons of your own is towny?

lol???

lmao???

That's not an answer so I'm going to assume you're just word salading some nonsense and can't answer because you don't actually have a worldview that makes any sense.

if any single other person in the game thinks my worldview doesn't make sense or that you're making any sort of reasonable or coherent point here then i will answer, otherwise i don't think that deserves a response lol

"sheep is super pure"
"sheep was on both miseliminations"
"so what it was what town wanted"
"so you think miseliminating people just because town allegedly wants them flipped is super pure"
"lmao lol"

Yeah that's a nutty worldview that you don't want to own up to.

[Aureal]

So you are trying to say that being on a bad elimination without reasons of your own is towny?

lol???

lmao???

That's not an answer so I'm going to assume you're just word salading some nonsense and can't answer because you don't actually have a worldview that makes any sense.

if any single other person in the game thinks my worldview doesn't make sense or that you're making any sort of reasonable or coherent point here then i will answer, otherwise i don't think that deserves a response lol

"sheep is super pure"
"sheep was on both miseliminations"
"so what it was what town wanted"
"so you think miseliminating people just because town allegedly wants them flipped is super pure"
"lmao lol"

Yeah that's a nutty worldview that you don't want to own up to.

all of those except for "lmao lol" are misquoted and significantly change the meaning of what was said

Wow you're really gonna try to weasel out by acting like anything in quotation marks is supposed to be a direct quote? It's obviously paraphrasing the conversation and if that's not what you got out of it maybe if you wanted communication you should reflect on why there's such a discrepancy between us.

[Aureal]

arguably aureal shading me for being on skitter could be tmi that fire is wolf lol

a thought for another day

otherwise the line here just makes even less sense

Literally haven't even mentioned skitter other than indirectly reminding someone about your vote when he was acting like he might have forgotten. For you to call that shade is baffling and concerning. I'm of the opposite opinion of fire, I think your recent posting has been pretty good.

[Aureal]

I think it makes sense as a definition of pure lol

And you know what, if he had taken that position and tried to support it, I'd give him some credit for holding to a position even though it seems ridiculous on its face. Instead he went into deflect and deny mode.

[Aureal]

The Aureal/fire conversation is sort of meaningless to me. fire isn't the kind of player who's going to actually make the sort of logical inconsistency that Aureal is pointing out IMO (either as scum or as town), but also I really don't think Aureal is

willfully

misinterpreting fire.

I can't tell whether you think fire's argument makes sense or not from this. I don't think 'logical inconsistency' is quite an accurate term here. It's not about the logic, it's about the applicability. His apparent position of "person who voted out two town is super pure, person who voted out zero town has got to be scum" is actually logically consistent. It just is not at all likely to be correct and anyone who plays Mafia is going to know that. You could sort the playerlist alphabetically and say the scum are on top and it wouldn't be logically inconsistent, just silly in much the same way this is.

Aureal, what do you like about sheep's recent posting?

I'll try to get some more examples when I get home but I feel like I did comment on it once a while ago.

[Aureal]

"super pure game" is literally the exact words used in 1897, it's not in any way a misrepresentation. That's literally what fire said. You just don't like it being pointed out that that's not true in any meaningful way that someone who wants to solve the game would use.

[Aureal]

Because, you know, the wagon composition and reasons people had for being on them would PROBABLY BE OF SOME SLIGHT CONCERN TO THEM

[Aureal]

o/

tldr me

FIRE IS DRIVING ME CRAZY

[Aureal]

Tl;dr for the whole game is that we miselimmed twice and we have no info and are trying not to miselim again today. The 1-shot cop claimed for no reason on day 1 and then didn't activate their ability night 1. And now they're dead with no check. Nobody else has claimed a power role so far, fire has claimed vt.

This is not necessary accurate. We don't know why there was no n1 action. Slot was replaced in the night and the replacement only made a 'hi' post then vanished and got replaced again so maybe an action was not submitted, but it's also possible there could be a roleblocker.

[Aureal]

"super pure game" is literally the exact words used in 1897, it's not in any way a misrepresentation. That's literally what fire said. You just don't like it being pointed out that that's not true in any meaningful way that someone who wants to solve the game would use.

you are taking those words and applying them to a context that they were not used in, in order to misrepresent my position

There is no context other than THE ENTIRE REST OF THE GAME in which sheep twice voted out town and you call his game super pure despite that!

[Aureal]

i’m gathering that the game is cooked

Eh, if the consensus townreads are actually town I think there's still a good shot to pull through. We need to stop wavering about fire though. The fact that pressure on him seems to once again be getting diffused is just further convincing me he's scum.

[Aureal]

i’m gathering that the game is cooked

Eh, if the consensus townreads are actually town I think there's still a good shot to pull through. We need to stop wavering about fire though. The fact that pressure on him seems to once again be getting diffused is just further convincing me he's scum.

can you 1) explain the read succinctly for me and 2) who do you think is diffusing the pressure?

My fire read I assume? I had a mild townread on him for part of day 2 that I really wanted to talk more to Menalque about; but that started deteriorating right at the end as once it looked like skitter was going to be the flip, fire started to pivot onto me for no good reason. It's continued deteriorating throughout the day as he came in with more of an attempt to push me with poor reasoning, then stopped engaging with me once I started pushing back. He's just flat-out refused to explain his scumread on me and says he can't see a world where I'm not scum (guess what, you live in that world!) He posts a lot of words but I find little of value in them, they don't seem to be giving us any information that we could use. He keeps throwing out comments that seem divorced from reality like he's got a narrative he wants to subtly push; like saying Cephrir was towny for being the one trying to start counter-wagons at the end of day two (he was not doing that), or this latest where he described sheep's play as "super pure and on the right side of things" seemingly without regard for what sheep has actually done with his play (voted out town at every opportunity).

And at this point, basically everyone not named Menalque is diffusing the pressure.

[Aureal]

Tl;dr for the whole game is that we miselimmed twice and we have no info and are trying not to miselim again today. The 1-shot cop claimed for no reason on day 1 and then didn't activate their ability night 1. And now they're dead with no check. Nobody else has claimed a power role so far, fire has claimed vt.

This is not necessary accurate. We don't know why there was no n1 action. Slot was replaced in the night and the replacement only made a 'hi' post then vanished and got replaced again so maybe an action was not submitted, but it's also possible there could be a roleblocker.

I interpreted them saying they took no action to mean that they didn't try to do anything, not that they were roleblocked after trying to do something. I also feel they would have simply claimed to have been roleblocked if that were the case.

Yeah you would hope she'd have just said so- knowing there was a roleblocker would've been good to know. But Merlyn barely had time to get her foot into the game and the day ended pretty suddenly, she might've still been thinking over whether that information was useful enough to out that she had a role that would've gotten used there rather than say, being a mason or a vig. I wouldn't say it's definitely that the action wasn't used though that's more likely.

[Aureal]

VOTE: Aureal
I started writing half of this thought dump like 12 hours ago and it's... interesting to see what has happened in the interim

How my thoughts got to this point

(skip if walls make you sad)

Spoiler:

It seems like I somehow tricked you suckers into hard townlocking me, so I can skip the step where I apologise for being chaotic bwahahahaha

Anyway. fire doesn't seem all that scummy anymore. I thought his initial meta on me was extremely flimsy, and once I locked in {implosion Aureal Egix} as town there weren't many other places where it made sense to me to eliminate anyway. But his updated meta is better, and he didn't continue pushing me. That got me thinking about how it doesn't feel like he's been pushing any sort of agenda today. He hasn't really proposed an alternative solve, or done anything. If he's scum it seems like his only strategy has been to talk expend effort talking about how towny certain people are and how hard this game is to solve. This... just doesn't seem like scum behaviour.

I still have worries, of course. I'm worried about how bad for the gamestate (sorry) fire vs skitter was if it was a TvT. I'd need to reread that to get a better sense of whether it was something fire accidentally got sucked into (better).

I also have worries about my new push. For a while in my head Aureal was the mafia industrial complex's chosen mislim, and I still worry that I am playing into that. It feels like this is an elimination that might actually

happen

. Could it be that easy...? If Mena and implosion are town where is the opposition to the wagon...? But maybe it is that easy, I don't think it's possible to tell right now.

You have totally lost me here. I keep getting reassured that you're town because you keep finding ways to track my thoughts well but you're way off here. I don't understand why you don't think fire's behavior can be scum there. And more distressingly, I don't understand why you were worried I was the "chosen mislim" because I have not felt that way at all. Up until this point I have not felt at any real risk of being miseliminated. So this feels alarmingly like preemptive self-defense.

Spoiler:

Ok, the promised post on Aureal
[...]

Spoiler:

[...]
I'm watching implosion be a clear driver of the wagon on Enchant and going "scum wouldn't be

that

brazen... Right?" So I'm not like totally sold on implosion, it is kinda weird that there's apparently no counterwagoning, but probably not a Mafia slot?
[...]

The reads on Mena and implosion are both kind of hedgy.

- Feel free to address any of my megapost!

[...]
The Mena/implosion hedging I'm not completely sure what you mean? I don't even talk about implosion in the post you cite. I think I worded my comment about Mena poorly though - I was saying that we could consider Mena as being on the Enchant wagon (as implosion had suggested in 949 and I was vaguely remembering since I was reading some new stuff as I did my catch-up). Not anything about Menalque's alignment- I was putting him down as town for that and the read has only gotten stronger since to where he's my strongest townread.
[...]

The bolded is false, hopefully this should be clear with the quote surgery I've done. I don't think I need to explain why someone forgetting what they've said is a little worrying.

1) There's no bolding so I'm not entirely sure what you're talking about.
2) I'm going to assume it's the implosion thing because I went back to those posts and I think it's pretty clear that I didn't understand what you were referring to and was responding in response to the post you quoted

below

your comment, not the one above it, which does have me talking about implosion unlike the one below it.
3) If this was unclear, why wait so damn long to bring it up. That feels like a gotcha attempt.
4) I lost the beginning of this post and had to re-write it because I clicked back to read yours again and then clicked the link to find the post in question and read it to figure out what was going on...

These are (IMO) some key moments in her trajectory today. 1. "let's talk not auto-elim fire", 2. pushes Ceph, 3. when I tell her that Ceph seems town she seems very happy to change back onto fire again. I'm specifically worried by the "I don't see how it's compatible but if you do I'll let it go"; this isn't how I would react I think. Usually when a player I respect disagrees with me I consider the merits of what they said to determine what to do. Sometimes there's some angst because I might find it hard to go against them. Here we have the opposite: she seems quite confident in disagreeing with me, but still lets it go and is quite happy to switch onto fire.

You think I was pushing Ceph? I was pushing fire well before that, during that, and after that. That was not a switch. I was never voting Cephrir. That was a "fire is scummy oh and hey look Ceph is being weird too, could be a partner?" I found fire's commentary there to be most out of line with reality, not Ceph's. My perception of Ceph's day two goes something like: feuds with skitter-> nitpicks me over what he and implosion were doing with Enchant-> complains about not being into this game and it sucks and he doesn't wanna have to think-> hammers skitter. Nothing about trying to start counter-wagons in it. And I was apparently one that he was trying to start, that's the sort of thing I tend to notice! That's how crappy of an attempt to wagon someone else it was, the target didn't even notice it.

And you're misrepresenting what I did, too. You said that you understood Ceph's position that I was arguing about. When someone else says they understand the position that you do not understand, does that not make you think maybe the position isn't as outlandish as you thought? I did not switch from pushing Ceph, I stopped arguing that point (mostly). I think it's clear from our brief exchange afterwards that I did not just simply accept your position that Ceph

is town

, I just moved on from that particular argument.

[Aureal]

ok just to be super clear so this can be the last post on this useless topic

i am spoilering this bc i think this the usefulness:length ratio of this is extremely low

See, that's the attitude that's kept me at your throat. You don't think it's useful to talk to me and explain things. I actually find this post quite useful.

i have been, over time, starting to lean scum more on sheep. i went to reread his iso to see how i felt about it now. there was a lot that felt pretty reasonable to me and like he was having generally accurate/good takes on the game and the content of his posts felt towny. i didn't really scumread his play as much as i thought i might, once i really read the things he was saying and the positions he was taking

i then thought about if sheep scum was capable of playing a game like that, and if he did, what his goals would be

i thought that he probably was just trying to look pure (meaning, look like someone who is uninformed and is genuinely trying to solve the game) so that he could collect townreads (which he did!) and set himself up to endgame. he didn't stray too far from consensus, he built a solid and probably accurate towncore, and didn't push anything too hard himself but mostly just vibed

I read that and I go 'but that's literally just classic scumplay: blend in, don't be a target pushing the bad things yourself' and I feel like you must understand that too. So I don't understand how you get to "super pure" from there. That's like, my understanding of why you decided to scumread

me

, because I wasn't being pushy and opinionated enough to suit you.

"on the right side of things" meant more in terms of general position and reads and approach to the game in the day-to-day takes and reactions and arguments, which i weigh more strongly than where he ended up on the end of day wagons

And as above, that seems like a really short-sighted position to take, only viewing what someone is saying and not what they are doing. Because that's classic scummy behavior.

your posts seemed to completely miss all of the nuance of what i was saying and assign meanings to things that seemed to me like they were really obviously not what i was saying

If I miss nuance, please feel free to explain it to me, not lmao lol at me. Like I was today, I am often posting from work, looking in very briefly and taking in snippets at a time.

i never said that sheep's being on the end of day wagons was towny (i don't think it's that scummy either, but i didn't really comment on it, it didn't factor in much to my read)

But that's the impression you give off when you call something "super pure and on the right side of things". What other impression would you expect someone to take from that?

[Aureal]

each time I read and reflect on her content I kinda find it >rand wolfy in that moment

like every time she flip flops and suddenly 180's a read, I think that was a relatively impure flip. everyone thinking it's villagery is something I disagreed with and the fact everyone liked it sort of accentuated negative feelings for me throughout the game

then for a moment she put in so much effort for like one page, and I stopped and thought about her overall game very large-scale. I realized theres just no reason for her to put in this much effort and keep flip-flopping her reads around right now. shitty read but she's already locktown by everyone, the entire rest of the game is coasting, just coast too lmfao it would be kinda depressing to keep tryharding like that when if scum you've already won. instead it's pro-town (makes the game less dead) and there's no agenda

there's no good reason why I didnt reach this revelation the past times she was doing it

Hey bud, guess what,

I

can think of an agenda.

It's actually starting to make me wonder if fire is indeed town again.

[Aureal]

I think the bad faith here in aureal-fire is aureal pulling out "sheep was on both the mislims while I, your wolfread, wasnt" and trying to apply it to this discussion

it is a) basically irrelevant, and b) misused in the way she tries to say alignment-related things with it

a) I just dont think fire said anything that has a good connection to the fact that I was on the main wagons day 1 and day 2, so the whole conversation was just spawned with inherently bad faith

b) aureal's stance in this conversation makes a lot of implications. I think it shades me (aureal disagreed when I said that so maybe im just misinterpreting??) she has snuck self-defense of herself in there, etc. but I think presence on both mislims just blatantly doesnt make sense as something thats relevant. implosion was on both mislims. hypothetically, if skitter's counterwagon fire was village, there's simply nothing wrong with being on the mislim. etc

Oh wow, look, someone is trying to accuse me of LAMIST for that comment, I could never have predicted that.

I've already responded to this all more in-depth in the response to fire, so I'm just gonna point out that it's pretty freaking crazy to not understand that I took issue with the implications of what fire said on those occasions where I've argued with him about how it wrongly portrayed what happened in the game; only to then start complaining about the implications of what I say. Oh and you're doing the same thing you just accused me of, sneaking self-defense in there by mentioning implosion.

[Aureal]

VOTE: Alianna

Clearly

VOTE: Doctor Drew

I can't allow this. Getting executed D1 as SK would be pathetic.

this radiates foreshadowing

I like the way you think.

[Aureal]

He keeps throwing out comments that seem divorced from reality like he's got a narrative he wants to subtly push; like saying Cephrir was towny for being the one trying to start counter-wagons at the end of day two (he was not doing that)

it gets very tiring having to keep doing this but just bc ydra is new here and is lacking context, this is just flat out a lie, ceph was doing exactly that in 1527 and 1530 (and for more context, this is him pulling out of a pretty deep tunnel, which makes it more significant)

I'm with you on it being tiring to keep pointing out that those are not someone seriously trying to start a different counter-wagon, let alone THE one trying to do it like your commentary made it sound.

[Aureal]

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

Psst, implosion, can I just join you there and not worry about finding whatever it was that was making me feel better about sheep bc I just really wanna crash and eat dinner now

[Aureal]

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

Psst, implosion, can I just join you there and not worry about finding whatever it was that was making me feel better about sheep bc I just really wanna crash and eat dinner now

Okay I'm just gonna do it.

VOTE: sheepsaysmeep

Didn't go through stuff but from memory, besides the posting at the end of the day two that I mentioned then, I thought that sheep's attempt to meta case me and subsequent fail in calling a town game a scum game seemed somewhat unlikely to come from scum. Both for the effort and the obvious screw up. Could be theater though, it did get called out right away.

And sheep's posting where he strongly took up my idea about nobody even trying to distance from Egix's slot was... Interesting. I wouldn't say I liked it, but I did take note of it. Usually when I throw out an oddball idea like that, people think it's terrible, not decide to champion it.

So I guess if that's all I can think of, it's not feeling nearly as convincing now after seeing sheep vote me without much actual reason and then now this weird shift to fire, whom gamestate is making me more concerned about being town.

[Aureal]

what about the gamestate makes you concerned about me being town?

For the last couple of days, I've been getting more confident that you were scum because of the growing resistance to the wagon. Could be scum playing a long patient game, but I feel like in those conditions I would make a nice obvious scapegoat for a fire miselim, being the person who noticeably changed their mind about you.

And then suddenly I became the top wagon there.

That makes me wonder whether that's because we're both town so it doesn't really matter to them which of us gets pushed here. Obviously some resistance to your wagon is town, so they may have decided to try this route instead. After all, my townflip here would make you look thaaaaat much worse, and it wouldn't be hard for scum to yank their artificial support for you even if town still isn't sure.

[Aureal]

Okay so big condition to this is that I’m not caught up properly — in fact if there’s anything major that happened during absence that would be helpful if I could be pointed in that direction — but I think even in a world where fire is town he’s still the objectively best lim here because if he’s town then that gives the most information on trying to figure out what scum were doing the past 2 days

I think it’s more likely that skitt was a scum driven CW and that scum are resisting bussing today in the hopes of the wagon diverting elsewhere but if he isn’t scum then is anyone seriously wanting to bet the game on fire town tomorrow as well after two days of steadfast resistance and, in this scenario, two counter wagons flipping town?

If you *are* willing to bet the game on fire!town and also wouldn’t lim him tomorrow the justification should be rock solid and it should be presented now

If we lim town today and it's a 3-person scumteam I consider the game basically lost. Of course we should play on tomorrow for the 23% chance it's only a 2-person scumteam. But just to say that I'm not an "even if fire is town" gal.

In terms of major events, fire claimed townie (I forget if he already claimed this yesterday?)
And idk some reads have shifted, everyone seems more interested in Aureal?
Seconding that Ceph should explain why fire is town if he feels so strongly about it

why is the game basically lost? it's just Elo everyday from that point on, that's not lost by any means

thank you for the recap on what's been going on

Oh just because the EV of mountainous 4v3 is pretty low - 5.7% for town. (For some reason I thought it was 3%? Which would have been even worse)

So, uh, why would we assume mountainous? It would only be mountainous if there's only one more PR and they get killed. There could be plenty of PRs out there yet.

[Aureal]

I... am not sure what's so confusing there. And I'm a little grumpy that you were perfectly happy to sit around yesterday and watch me and fire bicker, acting like you knew what he was saying, using that lack of understanding as reason to scumread me.

So how about you tell me what exactly it is that you don't follow in there.

[Aureal]

u were never even top wagon I think lol

Should be Ceph, sheep, Aisa as opposed to Menalque, Aureal as of implosion's unvote in 2008

idk it literally just does not make sense to me

u become top wagon so scum dont care who gets limmed today? I dont get what the post is saying about WHy that's MOre likely than something like fire is scum, wolves care about the lim and prefer you

all I see is

"gamestate has given me a nagging feeling fire is town"
"why?"
"ehh well I realized it could be possible"

Uh, sorta, yes? The gamestate changed and my confidence dropped because of the change. I didn't see why wolves would resist the fire wagon so much if he was town. Becoming a viable counterwagon can kinda change that calculus.

[Aureal]

Hmm fire you know my woo reaction test? Why do you find that towny?

it seemed like something that the town bunny in the field running around pushing buttons would do

there's just like an eagerness to solve the game and inquisitiveness behind it (which i think is also recognizable without meta)

it's not like it's something that's impossible for scum to fake it's just that idk if scum would even think of it?

i don't think it's a particularly strong part of my read anymore i admit i was being somewhat lazy before by townbinning mostly off that, i feel better about my reasons now

I'm not sure why it would really be harder for scum to think of this. Thinking of it simply involves seeing that Woo was apparently thinking about the vote count inaccurately. I'd think the difference between scum and town would come after that, with town being more inquisitive and mafia not being sure what happens there because they know Woo is not mafia and maybe it's just not worth it to open that box of worms.

I've been thinking more about her now and trying to put words to the niggling doubts I've had. I think the way I'd describe what I'm feeling about her play is that it's been choppy. She's inquisitive, yes, and more aggressively so than I'd kind of expected, but I didn't actually get to interact with her in the game we 'played' together before, so my expectations could just be off there.

But I'm not really sure that the inquisitiveness is natural. It at times feels like it cuts off abruptly rather than keep delving and having conversations. I've a few times thought that Aisa and I were going to discuss something, but then the subject just gets dropped and perhaps picked up at a much later point. Like my apparent failure to locate the quote about implosion she was talking about. This feels potentially like she's holding on to things for a more opportune moment to shift the game. It's even more concerning when I think back to our previous game, where I came in and townbinned her for a post where she complained about not getting an answer to a question for a very long time and thus having practically forgotten why she asked in the first place. It doesn't seem like the same pace which she is inquiring into things here.

[Aureal]

idk

my legacy is that I think the bar to exit this poe is too low and that has a decent chance of being a main cause of a loss

different people who havent been around in this game need to re-scrutinize players like ceph/dunn who could easily be wolf but have tossed as consensus town and then have just sat there on the clear

and they could totally be town but just more due diligence should be done in lylo in terms of good play from us

Who has Ceph/Dunn as consensus town? I thought they're in basically everyone's PoE. Certainly in mine.

[Aureal]

if aureal isnt a wolf this game doesn't make enough sense and I was never gunna solve it lolz

It's rather frustrating to see multiple people saying this sort of thing IN ADDITION to the multiple people who simply have just not even been trying to solve. At this point, all that together makes for a very poor situation to actually solve this damn thing.

[Aureal]

Also I'd just like to make sure to note that if there were to suddenly be a hammer on me or something, Aisa obviously wasn't concerned enough about preventing this sort of situation to unvote and avoid it. Not that you'd probably get deep enough into the rest of the game to need to worry about her since tomorrow would probably be ELO and there you really should finally resolve one of these slots that would now be 3/3 on yeeting town.

[Aureal]

So then, if Dunn were to pop in and hammer me here, tomorrow you'd say the team had to be Dunn/Ydrasse because Ceph and fire obviously aren't scum because they wouldn't be on all the town miseliminations and judging by your preflip coloration there you're very confident Aisa, Mena, and implosion are town??

[Aureal]

If wolves would avoid it, as you said you think happens, it must be town who does it then, surely.

[Aureal]

Does the fact that you have to add the disclaimer 'ostensibly' to what you think the reasoning is for Ceph's vote not concern you, lol? His trajectory this game is baaaad. Fight with town, check out and not re-evaluate, rinse and repeat.

[Aureal]

btw im not currently voting bc i kinda think ideal play here is probably to lim who the consensus townreads think we should lim

id rather have implo/mena/aisa decide bc even if somehow that isn't all town, at the very least it should be less scum-dense than the group outside of it

and i think if we flip a town who isn't me, especially being pushed for by me or members of that outside group, that's like worst possible scenario and we probably insta lose

if we flip me, especially if there's 2 scum, maybe we don't? bc then whoever doesn't die of the townreads at least gets a chance to reset and reassess

doing that approach rather than straight up voting maybe makes it harder to see what scum are trying to do after it's been proposed so it does maybe make it harder to solve the team, so idk maybe there's issues with that

On the other hand, this post has aged poorly. And it's only from two days ago.

[Aureal]

Like, I was gonna say something there about how if people who have done nothing but yeet town somehow can't envision a world where a townie is town, if those confused souls are actually town maybe they should realize they are not getting it and give someone else's ideas a try? Then I remembered that fire had already said that.

[Aureal]

Really, it seems pretty odd to me for people to be on nothing but town miseliminations. This doesn't ever really happen to me, I always end up off wagon or on scum or something in there to break up any miseliminations I end up on. The only game where I did nothing but yeet town was Purgatory and I was only in it long enough to have two cracks at it. And even then I would have been on a scum flip if other townies hadn't gotten exasperated enough with how slow I was to vote that they shifted the wagon on scum to a wagon on me instead.

[Aureal]

a very broad example is that a large proportion of games are mafia sweeps, involving town leaders who control the main wagon and just keep missing

Hmmmm. I hardly see this, either. The only Mafia sweeps I've been in are the games where I get miseliminated day one.

My conclusion from this is that people should listen to me more. >.>

[Aureal]

Idunno

I feel like overall you have been stagnantly pushing the biggest block of people, me/fire/dunn/ceph, in a way that wolves need to do if theyre not in a good situation right now.

WTF does this even mean, lol? Four scumreads for a game that likely has three scum is a completely reasonable, healthy amount. Dear lord, I've had people get mad at me when I'm scumreading everyone in the game but

this

argument is new. Or is it that set of people that's weird? Should I be scumreading Aisa/Menalque/implosion instead?

and then in order to seem not like that, the big focus just shifts

like literally the moment the momentum changed from fire to me (implosion moving from fire to me), fire is maybe town for a weak reason, I go from having been more of a shade-target to scumread + vote

Oh no, I shifted from one scumread to another, how dare I!

Like really, if I wasn't willing to move from one scumread to another, people could complain about it being suspicious that I would scumread certain people but not vote them. There's always going to be some sort of silly thing like this to pick at if you're intent on picking at someone.

And that doesn't even make sense with your complaint above about me 'stagnantly pushing' this block of people. If I'm not moving out of that block of people, how can I be making it look like I'm shifting focus out of it by shifting focus within it?

generally, your interactions have felt more like. pushing than like solving. I dont feel like you ask probing questions or collaborative question, no "whats your read here" type of blah blah. most questions when they appear feel like trying to catch me.

I'm sorry, what?? I spent most of this day arguing with people because they didn't like my probing questions! And they are apparently now voting me for it!

And I thought you tried to meta me, how often do I ever randomly ask someone for a read on another player? I think the answer is 'basically never unless I'm interested in their meta or have very specific suspicions about something going on between them'. That sort of thing seems mostly useless to me, something you do trying to make yourself look active without having much idea what to do.

[Aureal]

like your pool of wolfreads obviously contains at least one villager. but I dont see a motivation to solve this game more deeply. like exploring who's w/w within it or like a "shifting list" of if we can only resolve 2 ppl, or 3 ppl, from my preferred list, this is who it should be. just the same line between town and scum and no palpable worldview

Again, you supposedly tried to meta me. Is this a thing that I do a lot of???

[Aureal]

Like, off the top of my head, I think the game where I tried hardest to sort people by "these interactions make them unlikely to be w/w" sort of thing was Purgatory. Probably because there was a lot of that sort of talk from others in it.

And as I just mentioned, that was my FAIL HARD ONLY YEET TOWNIES game.

So IIIIIIIIIII don't really know that I should be trying to force that sort of thing.

[Aureal]

I just do not feel enough active solving interest in the game;

Wow, that's pretty hurtful in a game where there are multiple people who are literally doing nothing but sitting here popping in every couple of days to post KILL THIS PERSON. Sorry I have a frigging life and can't just sit here making huge rambling posts all day like you.

like it's not about w/w reads, it's about, you want to resolve more or less 4 players, but town you should realize that's not enough solving because you almost always get limmed this game, so town doesn't have the opportunity to lim 4 other players. you have to get more specific than that but there's no semblance of like that spectrum in any of your thoughts

What the hell? You're acting like this wagon on me didn't just suddenly pop up out of thin air in the last 48 hours.

[Aureal]

like I think this exchange within me fits with a similar idea. peoples' pushes on you are one of the literal best opportunities to sort those people. but the responses to me just feel like, aggressively focused on self-defense. ive been pushing you for quite a while and I havent felt any effort toward evaluating my alignment during those exchanges which is unnatural imo

And by "quite a while" you mean THE LAST 48 HOURS???

ffs

I was barely even functional last night after a long exhausting day at work yesterday and still tried to respond to you even though my head was foggy and I could hardly put a few coherent words together.

I literally do not even know WHAT THE HELL THIS MEANS. How can you understand that evaluating people who are pushing you is a good way to evaluate them and NOT UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS GOING TO INVOLVE SELF-DEFENSE

guh, I'm going to bed, this is stupid and obnoxious and I don't know why I'm even bothering

[Aureal]

i think these last couple pages are some of the better posting sheep has done in a while (as either alignment tbh, but i think it's generally towny and it a higher bar of scumposting than he's had if scum)

so i would encourage people not to just skip past them

The way you two are constantly having each others' backs like this is ridiculous. I engage in a discussion I don't even freaking need to have because there's not really much risk that Dunn actually pops up to hammer me after his last expressed thoughts on the subject were that he'd rather flip sheep than me (did I check this before actually getting into things, no, I guess if were scum I guess I'd probably be paying more attention to that sort of thing). I get attacked and belittled by sheep and accused of self-defense for responding naturally to what he's saying. And then he comes to the same damn conclusion about who to flip next that I had started with that he's been attacking me over!

[Aureal]

gaahhh

not aimed at anyone in particular

<Genie voice> Psst. Your line here is: "I'm going to unvote Aureal." Any time now.

[Aureal]

who is ur conclusion about who to lim next? cephrir?

LOOK GUYS AUREAL DIDN'T NUMERICALLY ORDER HER POE LIST LOL SO SCUMMY

NVM HOW OBVIOUSLY WE AREN'T GONNA LISTEN TO HER ANYWAY, AFTER ALL WE DIDN'T BOTHER LISTENING TO SKITTER AND PEOPLE ACTUALLY RESPECT HER TOWN GAME UNLIKE AUREAL'S

[Aureal]

This is so clearly a scum meltdown I don't know how to help anyone who can't tell

I'm genuinely tempted to offer myself up to get it done and that's not a thing I do

Why the eff would I meltdown if I were scum and sheep is the lim and all I can do is make people hate me more by talking instead of just shut up?

Yeah the idea that I'm just freaking offended by the idea that somehow I'm the one supposedly not trying when you're sitting here acting like this, oh that's just ridiculous.

[Aureal]

how is that your response to that question

like what is your answer to the question that was asked

I have little patience for meaningless questions right now! If anything that was an attempt by sheep to suggest that if you did succeed in your miselim on me here, people should go after Ceph next, not you two. And that's pretty crappy. I don't have time to evaluate the whole damn game but the way you and sheep have been working together against me makes me think there's got to be scum between you two, if not both. Ceph and his LOLOL LET'S JUST KILL TOWNIES IDC is a different beast entirely and not where I'd look first.

[Aureal]

also fwiw sheeping dead town can be good to an extent but dead town don't always agree with their past selves

Oh and now you're saying stuff about how it would be meaningless anyway for me to be doing the thing that you're up in arms about me not doing to your satisfaction. It's like you're just trying to upset me.

[Aureal]

how is that your response to that question

like what is your answer to the question that was asked

I have little patience for meaningless questions right now! If anything that was an attempt by sheep to suggest that if you did succeed in your miselim on me here, people should go after Ceph next, not you two. And that's pretty crappy. I don't have time to evaluate the whole damn game but the way you and sheep have been working together against me makes me think there's got to be scum between you two, if not both. Ceph and his LOLOL LET'S JUST KILL TOWNIES IDC is a different beast entirely and not where I'd look first.

it was a genuine question sorry I find it difficult to parse

like,
it's fire then? didnt you express a townread on fire most recently

In what world is stepping back from a tunnel enough to consider it possible that fire is town the same thing as expressing a townread?? Stop misrepresenting me.

[Aureal]

also fwiw sheeping dead town can be good to an extent but dead town don't always agree with their past selves

Oh and now you're saying stuff about how it would be meaningless anyway for me to be doing the thing that you're up in arms about me not doing to your satisfaction. It's like you're just trying to upset me.

what

that post had nothing to do with you that was about people (mostly was talking to implo tbh) feeling tied to sheeping skitter's read on sheep

how does me saying "you don't always have to sheep dead town" have anything to do with me asking you to tell me who you think is scum

can you chill with the ate about everything

"all you should be concerned about is figuring out who scum is"
"BTW guys let's not get carried away with this notion of sheeping dead town"

Oh no, no connection there.

[Aureal]

maybe you could actually explain what your reads are instead of refusing to do that and then yelling at people when they can't figure out what they are

Okay you are just freaking gaslighting me now. It's probably you and sheep together then. I guess the question then is whether you're doing it because it's only you two and you need to play this aggressively for a chance at survival or you have a deepwolf third.

[Aureal]

Yeah, what is happening is that I floated a comment about what to do if Dunn hammered me (without first checking whether that seemed likely, I last remembered him wanting to flip Egix then between fire and me so I thought it was more likely at first). Then sheep and fire latched onto that to badger me, demanding more in-depth reads and shading my play for not instantly giving them whatever they feel I should be doing and have now reached the point where they're acting like the wagons have somehow shifted towards me rather than sheep just because of their shade on me. I'm not freaking playing that game.

I'm probably pretty checked out for the rest of the phase, I've got work to do and lunch only somewhat dampened my frustration.

[Aureal]

And since I noticed another attempt to meta me, I'll just add that I think I acted pretty freaking similarly towards Alisae hounding me in 2114 so don't trust that meta read.

[Aureal]

Oh gosh is sheep saying it's straightforward that the counterwagon gets flipped next? We didn't yeet Dunn yesterday, now did we? I tried! Didn't happen.

[Aureal]

And that was an incredibly wooden vote by Dunn.

[Aureal]

I feel it's fairly obvious that we should be killing in (fire, dunn, ceph) today

I'd narrow it down to fire and Dunn. Been going back and forth over which I think is better to go for here. I'll have to read back all that stuff more in-depth but at the moment I'm leaning Dunn. My initial suspicions come back to mind, about sheep silently voting Enchant then only speaking up about the wagon to try to cast it as definitely the right thing to do once Dunn started becoming a counterwagon. And that stuff sheep said at the end about how he and fire were mind-melding could've been a way to further link them and make him look suspicious when sheep went down. I know I was feeling in the moment that they probably had to be working together, they felt so on the same page, but I'll have to evaluate that again with a cooler head and more info.

[Aureal]

Ceph's waffles are tasty.

I don't see much to gain from mass claiming at this point other than curiosity satisfaction (I know there's one specific thing I'm curious about!) but it seems like people are ready so I'm not really opposed either.

[Aureal]

I was gonna ask Ceph if he thinks fire is scum, but I guess the vote answers that? I guess I'll just let him think about that potential team a little more for the moment.

[Aureal]

Who do you feel were the possible day three flips?

I'm not going to do a line by line response from my phone but the waffles post did make me feel a little better still about fire because it reminded me that sheep was expressing a mind meld with me earlier, so doing the same with fire later indicates to me more likelihood of sheep just stealing reasoning from townies. And I hadn't quite realized just how much until I was reading that post where you brought up a bunch.

[Aureal]

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Aureal]

Sounds like a fine plan to me.

Pedit: ok, cool, I am also VT as per my meta.

[Aureal]

but pog we have 2 scum then right?

meaning only 1 left

Assuming all townies told the truth about their role yes! And there is also no SK!!
C9++ setup page for reference: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9%2B%2B

I was gonna say something about it being interesting that the last scum did not claim a role which would have denied us the information of there only being 2 mafia. BUT looking at the setup again, the only roles they could have claimed to do that were Cop or Vig, neither of which is obviously a viable fakeclaim at this point lol

Does the information really help town's chances, though? Or does it just make us feel better? Letting us have the "oh there's only one scum left, we can afford to yeet some townies" feeling seems actually more beneficial to scum. It's nice to know, less stress, but could lead to more cavalier play.

Also, I'm glad there's only 2 but what I was suspecting about Ydrasse's slot was wrong, alas. I'd been giving Egix the side-eye ever since he called me obvtown, wondering if that was a scum pocket attempt. Then Egix came out against mass-claiming and I started thinking maybe he was a cop who'd investigated me and wanted to stay on the down-low still to get another try in without getting killed, so I decided I didn't really want it either. Ydrasse even reinforced that idea coming in also townreading me.

[Aureal]

i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe

and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him

only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed

i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)

instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?

like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol

but still

I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow

What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.

It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.

fire->fire??->Aureal->fire/Aureal->sheep/fire/Aureal->sheep->sheep/Aureal

Does that seem reasonable enough?

[Aureal]

I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.

hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why

I don't think Dunn really needs to add to the pressure on fire here. He is, once again, the likely yeet.

And why would you think he wouldn't turn around later if need be, he already has. It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.

[Aureal]

i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe

and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him

only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed

i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)

instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?

like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol

but still

I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow

What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.

It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.

fire->fire??->Aureal->fire/Aureal->sheep/fire/Aureal->sheep->sheep/Aureal

Does that seem reasonable enough?

And now that I know there are only 2 scum it's an even less compelling argument than it was before. That's not even enough for "resistance" to exist

???????????

What does the number of scum have to do with anything? Townies can't resist a wagon? Huh?

[Aureal]

I don't think the last mafia is fire. Their analysis yesterday and the argument they are making today has convinced me. I am also leaning towards it not being Ceph but need to think about that more. I think that means the last mafia bussed, and I think that means it is Aureal as I don't see the rest bussing. These are preliminary thoughts. We have new information today - I can't be mafia with Fire like some people were saying.

hard for me to envision why a mafia dunnstral decides to try to shoot down two of his mislim options i guess he could turn around on it later but why

I don't think Dunn really needs to add to the pressure on fire here. He is, once again, the likely yeet.

And why would you think he wouldn't turn around later if need be, he already has. It's not like he's giving highly thought-out reasoning for these views- heck, he literally says it's preliminary views, that's basically telling you to not be surprised by changes later.

Already has? His one post since then doesn't seem relevant

What are you talking about? Why are you giving an arbitrary cutoff where apparently any earlier opinion changes don't count? I think it's clear from end of d3 that Dunn is fine changing his mind at pivotal moments and don't know why you seem dismissive of it happening again.

[Aureal]

i think CSF's positioning around enchant is fairly scummy actually in hindsight around post 850 and i think sheep may have kinda noticed and tmi'd it a bit in 875 (and then never really revisited this take)

What about 850 do you find scummy? It's just saying she can't read Enchant. It seems like a pretty bland not taking of a position, which is a pretty common thing, scum or no.

[Aureal]

I don't think Dunn really needs to add to the pressure on fire here.

He is, once again, the likely yeet.

Really not a fan of this

What? Do you disagree? If so, maybe try giving reasons why rather than just throwing shade?

[Aureal]

i do think it is possibly the worst plan in the world (currently assuming we're in a 2 scum world based on how the claims are going) for me as scum to enter yesterday being like okay, im gonna reaffirm townreads and try to narrow things down to a poe

and then spend a lot of effort doing that, including my scum partner in the poe, and generally throughout the day being fine with limming him and even at some points leaning towards limming him

only to in the last few hours of the day suddenly decide to flip and try to hard push out the counter alongside him which gets us basically nowhere closer to winning the game even if we succeed

i think i either include him in the poe and try to push for him to be limmed bc we want me to endgame and keep myself as clean as possible (decent path if i think i can convince people im town) or we let me be the lim and set things up to allow him to endgame and look clean (a little harder i think? either could work depending on how we played it), or we go for the bold strategy of trying to both win by one of us convincing people that the other belongs in the towncore (risky and difficult)

instead we just decided to try to both burn all of our cred at once in order to... force out aureal?? which even if we succeed would leave us still one day away from elo with a 0% chance that we live after doing that?

like i know that nobody is gonna be convinced by this post and nobody should be, bc if this argument was convincing then there's an avenue where the plan could actually end up somehow working lol

but still

I am confused by this too but yeah I do not think this argument carries enough weight by itself, things could have just gone wrong somehow

What do people feel like the day's trajectory felt like? I asked Ceph earlier to make a point that fire/sheep/Aureal was a rather silly team idea since those were literally all the D3 wagons so I don't know wtf we were supposedly doing there, but I think it's helpful in general to evaluate that.

It felt to me like the day started with fire being the likely elimination for the first third of the day. Then resistance started building in the second third. Then it rapidly went to me, shifted back a bit to fire, to sheep, and wavered a bit with fire or me still being possible before becoming a clear choice between me or sheep.

fire->fire??->Aureal->fire/Aureal->sheep/fire/Aureal->sheep->sheep/Aureal

Does that seem reasonable enough?

This seems reasonable enough, though I'm not sure what you think this implies about fire's alignment

Same line of thought that moved me to sheep's wagon, which he tried to discredit. Scum driven resistance would suggest fire scum. Town driven resistance the opposite.

Remember that moment when sheep voted fire after the sheep wagon became a thing? I really feel like he wanted that fire wagon back, but I wanted sheep more by that point and wasn't budging.

These things are still suggesting to me that fire is town.

I do need to look closer at how that fire wagon derailed. I played video games last night instead though, so I'll ask for opinions instead. Do we think Dunn claiming credit for not going after fire is accurate? I do recall he and Ceph got called out for changing their mind and not going for fire, so there's probably something to it.

[Aureal]

My main point of concern with the sheep/Egix pairing is... Really, they were BOTH trying to pocket me with weird townreads??? I was squinting at those "obv town" and "pure tone" comments a lot, thinking there had to be scum trying to pocket me there; but for both to be doing it is pretty funny.

[Aureal]

I would kill sheep > aureal, if that's the direction we're going in then I'll stop pushing fire because I think we should only have one more slot claim today at most

I agree with the first bit, but unless you now think that fire v skitter is tvt then I don't see why we shouldn't just stay the course.

ok sorry yea everyone please like read pages 58 to 61 or so

VOTE: ydrasse

Oh this is like, where I actually give arguments against sheep where it seemed possible to get another counterwagon going on him. Which apparently you totally tuned out I guess because you decided I was scum or something.

And then nobody can understand why I'm all "!?!?!???!?" when you say CEPH was the one trying to find a different wagon.

VOTE: Ydrasse

[Aureal]

It'd be lovely if you could explain why you think I'm the only one who would bus there.

[Aureal]

FYI for thread I just got to the summer camp I’m working at so… i will be posting when I can but please ping me in specific things I need to see

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

@aureal also ping me if you want me to look at stuff

What do you think of how sheep tries to keep up the fire wagon as pressure starts to come towards him? About here through page 86

viewtopic.php?p=13817258#p13817258

While also claiming that scum don't want it, to boot. Heh.

[Aureal]

Darnit, I knew I should've checked exactly what time I had posted before I went to bed. Three hours over the prod timer. There goes my never been prodded streak.

I really think flipping Ydrasse and Dunn wins the game here. If it doesn't, the people left get to have real fun doing serious re-evaluation.

[Aureal]

I would normally side-eye that hammer but we're at a point where even I got prodded so I guess things really were kinda dragging. :/

[Aureal]

Shout-out to the scumteam. Despite this game at times feeling pretty punishing as town, I think I'd cry if I rolled scum in 11v2 mountainous, lol.

Yeah, that's a pretty rough roll for everyone, as it turns out.

Also shout-out to everyone I ever had a wrong scumread on, and there were lots of you
Mission hold-a-consistent-townread-on-Aureal failed, again, by such a wide margin, lol. I'll have to try again next time!

It's okay, I'll be town again next time.

*staring at something like 14:1 town ratio where the 1 is multiball, to boot*

[Aureal]

Awww, take care of yourself, hope things are getting better!