Good Omens Mafia! Game Over.

[Fuldu]

So we have:

a burning death, which is presumably the fallen angels mafia (probably not including Crowley, but who can say),

a death by malnutrition, which is presumably Famine/Horseperson mafia,

a run over by a bike death, which is probably one of Them and, since I consider it unlikely that Adam is a SK, I wonder if this was a vig kill, at which point I wonder if it was IS,

and a miscellaneous death of scum by no know cause (Metatron as vig/SK?)

Any other thoughts or explanations?

[Fuldu]

Hard to say for sure, Stewie, but my guess is that Beelzebub is the only scum death, especially given this:

Our last death is not quite so unfortunate as the others.

[Fuldu]

The night scene specifically points out that the death of Beelzebub was a good thing (and doesn't for anyone else, leading me to believe that Them are pro-town, as was Aziraphale). Forces of Hell, then, are a highly probable scum group. The question, then, is which kill are they? Not malnutrition or a bicycle and they didn't kill one of their own. Possibly their kill was blocked, but I'm far more inclined to believe that they are the burning kill.

The witchhunters, further, aren't looking to end the world. In the book the two living in the present day are basically stumbling through the whole book just trying to get a handle on what's going on. The leader (from the fourteenth century or something) killed Agnes Nutter and was a bit of a freak. It's possible that he's an SK or a vig, but even that seems a stretch to me.

I've already said that I think it possible that Metatron is the SK. If memory serves, God was a somewhat indeterminate force in the book, so I don't really know, but if I were running this game, God might well be a red herring that I would leave out.

[Fuldu]

Bike: Misguided vigilante?

Which is why I return to the notion that this might have been IS. It fits both the characters and the player we know held that character.

[Fuldu]

You people are so spoiled.

(Vague Gesture of Mild Suspicion)

Bah, I had 'Minor' for the M. So close.

[Fuldu]

On a slightly related note, does anyone else think it somewhat strange that three people voted for me before any decent reasoning was given?

I didn't agree with what little reasoning there was, but no, I didn't find the way that the votes progressed to be strange. Dragon Phoenix actually presented more evidence than he often does in pursuing a bandwagon, especially on Day One. Oftentimes he'll just say "Just a hunch." And, DP is known to be a skilled player, so it doesn't shock me that people read his message and were then primed to see the post he pointed to as more scummy than, in my opinion, it actually was.

The fact is, though, I know you've seen bandwagons like this before, again especially on Day One. I didn't find the post that DP was pointing to scummy, but I did find this question to be so. You're trying to redirect suspicion on the people who placed it on you in the first place with the argument that it seems ill-argued and rushed. Ill-argued and rushed it might be, but to me, at least, it's so obvious how and why it happened that the idea of pointing to it as an anomaly seems desperate.

vote: Gaspode

[Fuldu]

I could be misreading this, but I don't think so...
Vote: Aelyn

I won't dispute the arguments made in the above, because they're coherent, if not damning. But, even taking the premise, doesn't Aelyn's guilt under this argument rely on Gaspode's guilt? And, since there are already several votes on Gaspode (for a variety of reasons), wouldn't your vote be better placed there?

[Fuldu]

So if Gaspode is innocent, Aelyn can't be scum either?

Several people have made comments similar to this one, so I'll expound a bit. We have two sets of arguments against Aelyn, Peachy's and Coron's.

Peachy's arguments rely on the notion that Gaspode is scum, so if that's what you're basing a vote on, it makes better sense to vote for Gaspode than for Aelyn. If Gaspode isn't scum, then Peachy's arguments don't point to scumminess on Aelyn's part, just (arguably) poor play.

Coron, on the other hand, is voting Aelyn because his "style reeks of scum." This, of course, has nothing to do with Gaspode. As such, it's perfectly reasonable for him to prefer lynching Aelyn to Gaspode. However, if he wants anyone to follow his lead, he's probably going to have to point to specific examples, rather than simply positing the existence of scummy behavior.

I, myself, am voting Gaspode based on the content of his own posts and, if he turns out to be scum, will then reconsider the Aelyn issue. As I said before, Peachy's arguments seem to me reasonable, but hardly damning.

[Fuldu]

My evidence is go to bottom of page, look for all posts by: Aleyn, see how scummy the way the posts are worded, size, organization etc. Then I say hey look this ranks way higher than anyone else *place vote*

Gee thanks. I was figuring you did it with the help of a ouija board. It's good to know that you read their posts in order to determine whether a person is scummy.

My point, and I'll say it again (and not just for Coron), is that you're going to have to explain that to the rest of us if you want us to follow you. You found posts that are worded in a scummy way? Quote them and state why. That's an argument I can examine for myself and come to a conclusion regarding. Otherwise, for all I know you find posts that are worded ungrammatically to be scummy and that's what this decision is based upon. If it's just a gut feeling or a hunch, say so. Sometimes I can get behind that, but if I think there's analysis involved, I'd rather know what it is, and if you don't say otherwise, I'm going to assume there's analysis.

Oh, and for JDTAY:

Urg! Kill Gaspode! Gaspode bad!

[Fuldu]

Look through the posts by aelyn like I did, look at how they sound and agree with me.

I did and I don't. Give me a well-reasoned argument over a gut feeling any day. For one thing, everybody thinks their intuition is so good, when, in fact, most people's isn't. With an argument, at least I can determine what does and doesn't make sense. With gut feeling it's just a bunch of people shooting in the dark. As far as I'm concerned, if you can't tell me why you think someone's suspicious, then even if you're right it's just that you got lucky, not that you have finely honed instincts.

[Fuldu]

mith: It's still just the one thing that I mentioned in the post where I voted for Gaspode. The way in which he was trying to deflect attention from himself onto the people who were, at that time, bandwagoning him seems disingenuous to me. In the context of Gaspode, who I know doesn't behave in a stupid or spiteful manner, this seems scummy.

Other than a joke at JDTAY, I don't think my subsequent posts have been urging the lynch of Gaspode especially strongly. I was commenting on the inconsistency of Peachy's logic and her actions by pointing out that, if eveything she said was true, then the logical response would be to vote Gaspode rather than Aelyn. Certainly, I think Gaspode more suspicious than Aelyn, but I'm hardly waving the IS banner and saying everyone should follow me because I'm always right.

[Fuldu]

also an at sign, check my current newbie game to see how I feel about them.

Seriously? That's the best you can do? And I don't mean just the bit quoted, although it was clearly the stupidest of the lot, but the whole thing.

And then the pedantic explaining to Stewie (I assume, since that was the only other post) about what your numbering means when clearly Stewie understood that and was complaining about the content of your comments on 16th, not your numbering system. Add Coron to the list of people I will never listen to under any circumstances. Unless he's scum in this game, in which case, well, let's hope I'm not scum with him subsequently.

If you're right about Aelyn (and really, learn to spell the name right; it's printed on most every page where you've gotten it wrong), I'll be chalking it up to luck rather than anything to do with your instincts, if that's the sorts of reasoning they're based on.

[Fuldu]

Why don't you state your LOGIC in your posts, or do you and coron form the "no logic" club?

Whoa, whoa, whoa, Mr. "I'm in a baby-eating contest with IS"! It's one thing to want there to be logic in posts; I've come down fairly hard on Coron for that, myself. It's another thing entirely to be deliberately building a reputation for bloodthirsty behavior at the same time as insisting that others make logical posts. To me this looks like you found an argument you thought you could push through on Coron and didn't think about the fact that it's completely incompatible with the playstyle you're cultivating in other games.

unvote: Gaspode; vote: PookyTheMagicalBear

[Fuldu]

Coron, you were

trying

to delve into which elements of Aelyn's style were scummy, but you began by refusing to do so, saying that everyone should look and they'd see for themselves, and then grumbling when you finally followed through and did it. And when your detailed list looks like it does, it doesn't exactly suggest that you're any good at it. mith, on the other hand recognizes that accurately explaining your concerns is useful for everyone and does it in a cogent and thorough manner. I don't agree with everything he's said, but I can respect and understand the reasons he's making them.

False Dilemma: The main error of this sort that I see in your "argument" is the notion that a player must either be helping the town or be scum. Your suggestion that Aelyn is suspicious because he FOSed Peachy, who (in your view) was helping the town falls under this point, as does the notion that Aelyn has made a lot of useless posts and must therefore be scum. I would point you to the recently completed Long Winter game for examples of why this is a False Dilemma. Pretty much every town player, and possibly especially the two of us, was pro-town but taking actions that pretty consistently helped scum.

Also, I would note that you've made a lot of non-useful posts yourself, especially of the "C'mon, anybody who doesn't understand my argument and doesn't see what I see is scum" variety. You even admit to as much in your most recent post. If it's scummy in somebody else, why is it okay when you do it?

And yes, you have been playing very emotionally. In fact, the sentence just after you deny being emotional devolves into yelling at mith in all-caps. I'd consider that an emotional response. Also, claiming to have cracked a door while posting suggests emotionality to me. Perhaps others would disagree.

[Fuldu]

no one bugged me at all when I gave no reasons, when I showed you what I say everyone bugged out. He's just saying shit, I'm saying shit and backing it up with actual evidence from the thread.

Several people bugged you to give reasons. You claimed to have them and we wanted to know what they were. No one was going to vote for you at that point without trying to get a sense of what your reasons were.

Once you gave those reasons, a number of people decided that they were useless enough to merit considering you scum. I just think it merits considering you useless and so my vote is elsewhere.

As for the sarcasm, I don't think it was as sarcastic as you might have intended. You genuinely seem to believe that you come to reasoned conclusions about who's guilty and who's innocent, when the evidence suggests that you're coming to these conclusions on the basis of nothing whatsoever. If your emotional responses had been accurate or useful in other games, I might consider following them, but as it is, there's just no way.

[Fuldu]

My evidence is go to bottom of page, look for all posts by: Aleyn, see how scummy the way the posts are worded, size, organization etc. Then I say hey look this ranks way higher than anyone else *place vote*

You're right, looking at all votes by me

is

useful. "How scummy the way the posts are worded, size, organization, etc." suggests something more than a gut feeling, at least until we actually saw what that meant.

Secondly, I am not pushing for your lynch. I'm not voting for you and don't intend to. I haven't seen you do anything more scummy than your usual behavior. I'm trying to point out to you why this play-style is counter-productive. I think you create conflict in places it doesn't need to be and that it provides scum the opportunity to push for easy lynches on pro-town players.

[Fuldu]

unvote, vote: gaspode

I'll just vote the one that has more votes from gaspode and coron... and I don't like lynching someone while they are gone when they repeatedly said so. Gaspode, on the other hand, seems a bit quiet since we "switched" to coron.

Correct me if I'm wrong, Stewie, but I think Coron has more votes than Gaspode. The other part of the argument I don't have a problem with, but the first part seems factually inaccurate.

[Fuldu]

Oh, and one other thing. Coron, you say you're a Mason. As far as you're aware, could you be a part of the mason group that could recruit Homer?

Erm, wrong game Aelyn.

With a deadline approaching, my vote on Pooky isn't going to go anywhere, and I think Coron can be caught out on a subsequent day if it turns out he isn't telling the truth, so

vote: Gaspode

. He hasn't done much to deflect the bandwagon on him, even though it's lasted longer than the one on Coron.

[Fuldu]

A deadline will be set for days if we feel it is necessary, in the case of a deadline lynching will require at least one quarter plus one of all living players and at least half plus one of all voting players. Failure to lynch by deadline will result in a no lynch.

I haven't run the numbers, but I think we failed to meet these criteria, specifically the "at least half plus one of all voting players."

[Fuldu]

To say nothing of the fact that, one way or another (I see I forgot to unvote before moving my vote to Gaspode, so it may not count) I have a vote on somewhere.

[Fuldu]

The only role I can think of that I would have credited "guilty to some investigations" was Crowley, who mith is clearly not. I'm perfectly comfortable giving him time to say whatever he wants to say, but I don't think I'm likely to believe it.

[Fuldu]

Well... I guess Sister Mary Loquacious might be guilty-ish, but... she sounds more mafia-spy than anything else. What with serving the forces of Hell, and all. And that's the only maybe-guilty-maybe-not and still living role I can think of.

Eh, I can wait. I'm expecting much, though...

For future reference, DarkLight, suggesting roles that might be interpreted as guilty-appearing after someone has said that they will be needing to do so but before they actually do is generally a bad idea. Unless, as was the case with mine, the role in question is dead. Now, since mith can't actually claim a role name (per the rules), it's not as serious here, but still. Typically it's a no-no.

[Fuldu]

Mith, I come from an entirely different "school" of play. I do interact. I don't like long posts.

But this tendency toward short posts has occurred

while

you've been playing here. In many of your earlier games on MS you posted long, drawn-out posts analysing voting patterns of previous days to try to pin down where the scum were likely to be hiding. They weren't always correct, but they were intelligent and well-intentioned even in those instances when they were wrong (or you were scum and they weren't well-intentioned, but they appeared so). The new PeaceBringer, who posts little of note and then comes up with a vote seemingly out of nowhere, is probably putting the same amount of thought and analysis into his votes as the old one was, but it's far less convincing to those of us who don't get to see your argument. In this particular case, the rattling on about how you'd prefer not to see careful analysis in posts seems scummy.

vote: PeaceBringer

[Fuldu]

he now votes for me again because I can kill. It's not as though anything has changed other than that you're getting a bit of heat. Getting nervous? My actual reasons for voting for you remain unaddressed, and this post just makes me more confident.

I read that as his assuming that if you both live to tonight, you'll likely target him, so it's in his best interest to eliminate you. It's not an argument that you're scum, exactly, but preservation of self is usually a better plan than preservation of unknown other.

[Fuldu]

There are probably others who require prods, but Electra's mini has been abandoned after three weeks of inactivity on her part. Can we start looking into a replacement?

[Fuldu]

Okay, based on my (not necessarily accurate) read of their respective non-claims, I see a conflict between what Locus is saying and what mith is saying. With the threat of a deadline and each of them offering a different manner of proof, I'm going to have to side with Locus (barring posts from his named associates that express bafflement at his asking for confirmation). mith has an investigative result against him. Locus' supposed confirmation can happen today, where mith's requires waiting until tomorrow; scum with one-shot abilities (or other odd roles that are fairly common in themed games) often gain a great deal by stalling an extra day. If mith is the vig he claims, we lose less by lynching him than we lose if Locus is who I think he is.

unvote: PeaceBringer; vote: mith

[Fuldu]

Not that you probably want to hear my opinion on it any more, mith, but if you survive to night, I still think PeaceBringer is a good target.

And I don't think that you and Locus are claiming the same character (and clearly not the same mafia role), but I do think that the totalities of your claims are at odds. Given that I don't believe that both of them are true, the "scum with one-shot abilities" argument gains in stature, by my view. The more likely I think it is that you're scum, the greater the cost of letting you live to night, and Locus has increased my belief that you're scum.

As for the argument that I ought to have waited to move my vote, I would point out that you're still six away from a lynch and I'd like to further point out that a close split like this with extra votes on unproductive small bandwagons is going to result in us failing to meet the deadline lynch conditions,

again

.

[Fuldu]

The message isn't for you, Genocide Heart. I'm just letting the person who can save my ass know that my ass does in fact need saving.

Oh, then that completely demolishes my interpretation of the situation. Damn.

unvote: mith

Still, we need to make sure that if we're given a deadline that we don't screw it up, and while PeaceBringer is back to being my first choice, I don't think there's any hope of pulling that off with the levels of participation we're seeing.

[Fuldu]

Well, Locus, you're not confirmed yet. All you've done is say that there's someone who

can

confirm you. If it turns out to be Electra (who has been off-site for three weeks, I believe), that's going to suck for you, but it's not going to mean that town was wrong to lynch you (in the event that we do). I could say that there's someone out there who can confirm me as pro-town, but that wouldn't make it true. And if no one came through to verify that (which, of course, no one would) I'd hardly expect the fact that I had said it to protect me.

[Fuldu]

With the deadline now set and still no one stepping in to confirm Locus, I'm going to have to go to that bandwagon.

vote: Locus Cosecant

.

[Fuldu]

unvote: Locus Cosecant

We need to come up with a lynch decision fairly quickly now. I was happy with Gaspode yesterday and would be happy again today.

vote: Gaspode

[Fuldu]

Or in other words, olio, if we don't lynch Doomcow, you're perfectly happy to make it harder for us to lynch anyone else. Am I the only person who's concerned about the votes getting spread all over the place and us ending up with a deadline no-lynch?

[Fuldu]

I wasn't telling olio not to waste a vote on Doomcow, I was telling him that if he's going to be away, it's better not to place a vote at all than to place one that then can't be moved. As for my singleton vote, I was hoping (and still hope) that it would blossom into a bandwagon, but if it doesn't, I'm going to be here to move it to wherever it will need to be in order to secure a lynch.

Mr. Flay, I think you missed Genocide Heart's unvote, but assuming it's right other than that, we'll presently need 12 votes on anyone other than LC or mith in order to lynch them. Dragon Phoenix is unlikely to vote, JDTAY is unlikely to vote, and Doomcow's not going to vote for himself. That leaves only 12 people not already on the LC or mith bandwagons. We need to have players on the LC and mith bandwagons removing their votes if we want to have any hope of lynching

anybody

. More generally, any votes that can't be unvoted count against us far more strongly than non-votes, because not only are they not contributing to the lynch, but they're also increasing the level we need to reach to attain lynch.

Right now I see Electra, olio, and PeaceBringer as the players most unlikely to change their votes. If everyone else unvoted, that wouldn't be so bad. The 8 votes that are necessary to reach quarter-lynch far outweigh that. But I highly doubt that everyone else is going to unvote. Several of the voting players have posted without doing so (The Machine and Aelyn, just on this last page; if we're looking for scum in those two bandwagons, those two are at the top of my list). The more players we have who don't/can't unvote, the more likely we are to wind up not lynching today. That's what I was taking olio to task for.

[Fuldu]

Mod

: The deadline is set for Tuesday at 8PM. Is that 8PM EDT (where I understand Dragon Slayer is) or some other time zone?

[Fuldu]

I'm going back and forth on whether Fuldu or olio is suspicious. I also remain unconvinced of Gaspode being scum.

I don't think there's any reason that either of us has to be suspicious. I was calling olio out for poor play (note that with DarkLight's support of DoomCow, olio's vote is now precisely the sort of obstacle to lynch that I was describing), not for scummy behavior.

[Fuldu]

There is only one possible mason group that can still support three members, The Them, and that would require Dog being a character and a masonry of five people. Both of those requirements would be a bit weird, although not totally improbable.

However Locus, Darklight, and DoomCow have claimed

all

the remaining spots in the Them Masonry, so if anyone else is a member of Them and can reveal that without getting modkilled it would be quite compelling proof that those three are lying. I really feel like something fishy is going on with them...

However, I'll still

Unvote

. I'm not to keen on voting for Gaspode, though. Aren't we in the process of replacing him or something?

This was roughly the same interpretation that led me to assume Locus and the two names he gave (lazarusmoth and Genocide Heart, I believe) were the Them. However, given Locus' reliance on waiting for someone to come out to clear him instead of naming one of his partners has made me rethink possible game mechanics and I have another belief about the way this might work. As such, I think it's wrongheaded and even a little scummy that you're trying to get Them to come out to dispute a claim that no one has made, especially since it would be quite difficult for Them to do so in a way that wouldn't get them mod-killed.

[Fuldu]

Given that you were able to come back and remove it, olio, yes. But based on what you had said, I hadn't expected that to happen.

And Genocide Heart, what I'm saying is that I don't think that Locus, DarkLight, and DoomCow are masons, I think it's a completely different game mechanic. If they were masons, Locus wouldn't have had to beg for his counterpart to come to his defense, he could have simply said who it was and they would have confirmed. The way Locus approached it suggests that he didn't know that DarkLight was the individual who was going to come to his defense.

If they aren't masons, then there are lots of roles that could work for the mechanic that I have in mind. I'm not going to say what it is, because whether I'm right or wrong, it's almost certainly better for the idea not to be common knowledge.

[Fuldu]

I believe, although the number of vote count errors that might have crept in is sizeable, we now have enough to deadline lynch Gaspode. If you aren't willing to vote for his lynch, you might consider an act of good faith and remove any votes on other players. We definitely have more than a quarter, it's just a matter of making sure we have more than half of voting players.

My initial argument against Gaspode occurred in the middle of February. There were a few votes for him before that, largely reasonless bandwagon, and discussion of him progressed from there. I hope that helps anyone who is looking to find the relevant information.

[Fuldu]

If everyone's blindly following Fuldu on logic that was seemingly refuted months ago

First, it wasn't just my argument, but the arguments of several players, including Dragon Phoenix and Stewie. Second, the logic was disputed, but hardly refuted. The bandwagon fell apart when Coron translated his "gut feeling" into some truly appalling arguments against Aelyn and a large portion of the population turned against him.

[Fuldu]

Well that wasn't what I had expected, but unless the roles are distributed in an unexpected fashion, I'll happily grant mith confirmed innocent status. I'd hope that in return my repeated efforts to lynch Gaspode will bring everyone else to grant me non-Horseman status (I recognize it says nothing about me vis a vis the demons).

[Fuldu]

I have a reasonable theory and I am comfortable that the role in question is likely pro-town. I can specify if the town sees fit, but it's conceivable worthwhile to keep it a secret.

[Fuldu]

Oh, of course. Got it. Yes, I agree with mith that the character I believe Pooky is is probably useful and that the pro-town character that I believe mith is might well appear scummy to Pooky.

vote: Aelyn

[Fuldu]

Oops, got that last bit wrong,

unvote: Aelyn; vote: Peachy

[Fuldu]

Pooky: Do you ever get anything more specific than "bad vibes"? It's been three nights, so I'd imagine you got a third result of some nature. Don't say who you investigated unless you think it's a good idea, but if you always get "bad vibes", I have a pretty good idea who you might be... and if you are, don't trust your results.

Pooky should feel free to clarify, but I believe he's said that he got a non-bad vibes result on a dead innocent as his third result back when he was railing against mith.

[Fuldu]

I'm here and I'm catching up, but I wanted to do something I would have done this morning if I were still alive. Below is the Dramatis Personae from the front page, edited based on the information we have, as well as with my best guesses as to alignment. Obviously, not all of these need necessarily be in the game, and the alignments aren't necessarily right, but we're far enough in that I think it's informative. Note also that there are only 15 named roles remaining, despite the 19 living players, so we probably have a decent supply of Atlantans and what-not still out there. I think I have some of the fifteen identified by action and word, as I'm sure many of you do, as well. Of the nineteen, we have four almost-certain scum left, as well as Metatron (a possible SK), TSNCA Pulsifer (the fuzziest of my yellows, possibly misguided scum, possibly a mediocre cop (getting scum results on witches)), and Sister Mary Loquacious (mafia cop, in my book, and the one of the yellows I think is most likely to be scum). Those aren't bad odds, although it still relies on them doing some more going after one another.

Also, 19 to lynch, DS? I hope not.

DRAMATIS PERSONAE

SUPERNATURAL BEINGS

God

(God)

Metatron

(The Voice of God)
Mole (

Aziraphale

, An angel, and part-time rare book dealer) was run over, and has presumably discorporated, Night 1
Aelyn,

Satan

(A Fallen Angel; the Adversary), died night 4
Mastermind of Sin (

Beelzebub

, A Likewise Fallen Angel and Prince of Hell) died, and has presumably discorporated, Night 1

Hastur

(A Fallen Angel and Duke of Hell)

Ligur

(Likewise a Fallen Angel and Duke of Hell)
Stewie (

Crowley

, An Angel who did not so much Fall as Saunter Vaguely Downwards) died, and has presumably discorporated, Night 2

APOCALYPTIC HORSEPERSONS

Gaspode (

DEATH

) was lynched, and discorporated, Day 2

War

(War)

Famine

(Famine)
Peachy,

Pollution

(Pollution), was lynched day 3

HUMANS

Thou-Shalt-Not-Commit-Adultery Pulsifer

(A Witchfinder)

Anges Nutter

(A Prophetess)
mepmuff (

Newton Pulsifer

, Wages Clerk and Witchfinder Private) was run over, Night 2
PeaceBringer (

Anathema Device

, Practical Occultist and Professional Descendent) was crushed by fish, Night 3
Coron (

Shadwell

, Witchfinder Sergeant) was burned, Night 3

Madame Tracy

(Painted Jezebel [mornings only, Thursdays by arrangement] and medium)

Sister Mary Loquacious

(A Satanic Nun of the Chattering Order of St. Beryl)

Mr. Young

(A Father)
Fuldu,

Mr. Tyler

(A Chairman of a Residents' Association), was enveloped by fire, and died, night 4

A Delivery Man

THEM

ADAM

(An Antichrist)
Porro (

Pepper

, A Girl, and member of Them) died of malnutrition, Night 1

Wensleydale

(A Boy)
Internet Stranger (

Brian

, A Boy, and member of Them) was burned, Night 1

Dragon Phoenix (

Atlantisan

, Townie) was mod killed, Night 3.

Dog

(Satanical hellhound and cat-worrier)

[Fuldu]

roland, I absolutely think the argument that you are participating poorly because you should have bought the book is total crap, but it does surprise me a lot that you can't find it in bookstores. They are (have?) reprinting a new edition this year, so I've been seeing a lot more copies at the bookstores that I go to as companies try to empty out their warehouses of old editions. It's usually shelved with Gaiman rather than Pratchett, and not always in sci-fi/fantasy. Gaiman is apparantly considered actual literature by some bookstore owners.

[Fuldu]

Now that I've reread today, I see that several of the things I thought I knew were mistaken, which gives me an excellent idea of which two named characters aren't present in the game. It's so obvious now that I think of it, I'm actually angry I didn't think of it sooner. Hint: There's a very specific reason they aren't in the game.

I also see that Genocide Heart is pushing pretty hard for the lynch of someone who has apparently been tied to me. I can't really allow that to stand, can I?

vote: Genocide Heart

.

[Fuldu]

Have you read my previous post? The one where I unvote you and claim I am far less suspicious? It may, perhaps, provide new and wonderful information invalidating your point. Also, why do you have God in green instead of yellow?

It may, perhaps, provide new and wonderful information invalidating my point, but as it happens, it doesn't. If we were not who everyone thinks we are, then there would presumably be a decent sized set of other players, i.e. those with the roles we are believed to have, who would know that to be the case. Unless they were exhibiting grossly poor play, they then would also have voted for one of the three of us. None of this happened. That you continued to push for this lynch even when no support materialized for it suggests that you want to get rid of the characters you think we represent, and therefore are scum.

I have God in green because he was not working for the Apocalypse in the book. His ways were ineffable, but on my interpretation, his support was solidly behind Adam in whatever choices he decided to make. The same cannot be said about Metatron, hence the yellow.

[Fuldu]

Blackberry claimed mason and that AnnoyingPest could verify the claim. It isn't quite the same as claiming that AnnoyingPest is the co-mason, though that's reasonably likely. I don't see any mason roles that I consider likely under the circumstances, so

vote: Blackberry

.

[Fuldu]

I don't know who mith is; he's pseudo-claimed a believable, but totally unmemorable, minor character. I don't have my book handy to check. I do believe him, though, at least for the time-being. As for the burning death, we still have a demon left, as well, Hastur. I would presume the burning death was his.

[Fuldu]

Note, also, that between them, PBuG and his replacement PitBull have exactly one post in this game. If I were scum going to fabricate a mason claim, I'd definitely pick a partner that wasn't likely to refute it.

[Fuldu]

No, I'm saying I don't have any idea which minor character mith's claimed. Just that from the context of what he's said, he's saying that he's not on the list and that it's a very particular character from the book. If I had it handy, I'd go look, but it's in storage and I don't feel like digging around. But the fact is that, barring endgame concerns, I believe him for the time-being. It

could

turn out that he's Metatron, an SK who has chosen not to kill until endgame, but I don't yet think that's the case.

On the other, I don't believe that Blackberry is necessarily outing his partner by mentioning Pitbull. If I were scum trying to buy time with a fake mason claim, I'd definitely say that I'm partnered with someone who isn't around to dispute it. If Blackberry turns out to be scum, we should take a look at Pitbull, but it's by no means a good argument against his being anti-town. I'd also point out that Thoth doesn't seem to have appreciated what Locus Cosecant's death tells us, in the way that Mr. Flay has. It's certainly possible that Blackberry thought the same thing.

The short version is that I don't believe there are any unidentified mason groups left, so my vote is on someone who says that there are.

[Fuldu]

We've had nine replacements so far and there are three or four current players who could stand to be replaced. The very fact that the mods let me replace back in suggests that they're having a difficult time finding replacements. I don't think trying to claim mason with an inactive player is so unreasonable at that point. And we're talking about a claim that requires that there be three mason groups in this game. Since at least one member is dead in each of the other two groups subsequent to their having 'claimed' mason, this seems the least likely of the three (especially, obviously) to me.

Blackberry hasn't been in the game long, was away for part of the month he has been in the game, and has expressed confusion about what's going on at least twice. While basing my argument that Blackberry may simply have thought that he was claiming the obvious masons on Thoth's having missed the alternative counterclaim isn't necessarily a great argument in general, I think it works just fine in this particular case. Without a Pooky investigation, I don't have much else to go on today, and this seems to me like more than a strong enough argument to push for a lynch.

It surprises me that there's as little support for this bandwagon as there is. If I were scum and Blackberry weren't on my team, I'd be quite happy to jump on a bandwagon being pushed by a relatively undisputed pro-town. If I'm wrong about Blackberry (and I'll grant the possibility that I am), I'll want to look at esme and olio a bit harder.

[Fuldu]

Night One there were four deaths. It's Day Five and we still haven't identified where two of them came from. This leads me to believe that the Metatron, at least, is likely to be scum who has either decided not to kill, has been totally absent from the game since Night One, or has had his kills ascribed to somebody else.

If you look at the text of the summary of deaths in the second post, you'll see some inconsistencies. These may be due to mod inconsistency, but they can also be explained by more killers. For example, we had two deaths last night, but no one was burned. They just died. Also, Internet Stranger and Coron are listed as having been burned. I don't distinguish that from the way in which FulduI was enveloped in flames, but I do distinguish it from the fact that he is also listed as having died. I think he was targeted by two killers.

My main problem with this line of reasoning is that, except for Night One, the horsemen are either getting the same tag as what I presume to be Metatron, "died," when Night One their (Famine's) tag was "died of malnutrition," or they haven't killed since Night One (really unlikely). This tends to move things more in the direction of mod inconsistency.

[Fuldu]

Oh, this will help. I was going through an Amazon text search, line by line, over the weekend trying to find the character. Took forever and while I could find the things I thought he was doing, I couldn't find the character. The PDF wil make it much easier. It is, however, almost certainly totally illegal.

[Fuldu]

unvote: Blackberry

I'll reconsider where to go next this evening.

[Fuldu]

Page 85, I think.

That was the only thing I saw, as well, but Charles Fort isn't even a character in the book, he's just a guy who was mentioned. And mith said that this was one of his favorite characters in the book.

I had remembered there being a brief section in the bits that start on page 126 that had a guy actually doing things, but I don't see it. It may just be that I'm remembering something that isn't there because I want to. I don't know why Mr. Flay is being coy about who he thinks it is. He's not going to be modkilled or get mith modkilled by telling us what he thinks.

Does anyone who has reread this now want to comment on the ongoing suggestion that Metatron is part of a good guy masonic group? It just reaffirmed my belief that Metatron is undeniably a villain in the piece, meaning I really ought to go back to voting Blackberry.

[Fuldu]

I keep going back to four kills Night One, with the bicycle being the only one I'm comfortable considering ascribing to a vig. I can't explain it and it's really bothering me. With my decreased confidence in mith and increased discomfort with Metatron, I'm not taking anything for granted any more.

See, I don't like Charles Fort as the mith role at all. When he brought up unlisted characters that were a lot of fun, I thought of the Other Four Horsemen. But there's no reasonable explanation of a death by fish kill for them.

I'll get this cleared up somehow... it's so obvious to *me*, but it happens to be one of my favorite characters anyway.

My role is not based on what the character does in the book, but on the name of the character.

Neither of these quotes makes any sense in the context of Charles Fort.

The only thing that sort of makes any sense is that he's Scuzz, aka (among other things) People Covered In Fish. But if that's the case, I'd have pegged him for the bicycle kill Night One, which he's denied having done. And I'd be inclined to think him scum.

[Fuldu]

The only thing that sort of makes any sense is that he's Scuzz, aka (among other things) People Covered In Fish. But if that's the case, I'd have pegged him for the bicycle kill Night One, which he's denied having done. And I'd be inclined to think him scum.

Yes, Mr. Flay, that's what I was saying here. But the more I think about it, the more comfortable that I am with the notion that if the Metatron is pro-town (still not convinced, sorry, but not going to push it), then the Other Horsemen could be, too. They weren't interested in ending the world; they just thought it was cool to ride with badasses.

[Fuldu]

I get the impression esme is counting one each of "Tibetans, Aliens, Americans, Atlantisans, and other rare and strange Creatures of the Last Days," which would make 32. I agree with olio that it's really only 27 (minus 2) roles, which would leave seven slots to fill. DP is one of them, and presumably so is mith.

[Fuldu]

Yeah, I don't like voting people just for being inactive this late in a game, but korais clearly deserves it.

vote: korais666

[Fuldu]

I'm still here, though I was away briefly and have fallen behind in a number of games and am slowly working on catching back up. I won't comment on the prevailing theories about who I am, except to point out to mneme that Dog was Locus Cosecant and is dead. I said repeatedly yesterday that I'm unconvinced that Fritzler and Blackberry are pro-town, even if they're God and Metatron, but since our other groups seem to be down to single players and they are admitting to being linked, I'm at least confident that they aren't members of the known scum, so I'm willing to give them a pass for the time being. We should keep in mind, though, that even if we were to lynch one of them, we wouldn't necessarily know whether they were pro-town or not. The death blurbs have been varying degrees of informative in that regard.

I don't see any reason that Pooky shouldn't give his results at this point. Scum have enough potential targets to go for that it isn't like giving them one more is going to be such a tragedy.

I think going after the lurkers makes the most sense, and while I'd have picked SubtleTactix myself, I have no problem with an Electra lynch. But I'd like to have Pooky reveal his innocent first, so no vote.

[Fuldu]

I'm beginning to wonder if these aren't modkills - why would a modkill ever happen at night (i.e., the DP modkill)? Or right after two incredibly innocuous posts (i.e., the Thoth modkill)? These are potentially mod-flavored regular kills. I'd be inclined to believe they're Godkills, but I don't know for sure. And I can't say for sure that they're scumkills as opposed to vigkills of some sort, but it seems more probable.

[Fuldu]

No need to draw conclusions, Flay. Thoth got himself modkilled somehow. He was an American.

[Fuldu]

The problem with a Fritzler (or Blackberry) lynch is that they are pretty likely to be who they're presumed to be and even lynching them isn't going to tell us whether they're good or bad. I'm still suspicious of them, but I don't see any value to lynching them at this point. The only good that could come of it is if they're Other Horsemen, which would tell us that the OHs are scum (since they didn't say they were a mason with mith) and give us two good lynches. Or if they're a scum+Sister Loquacious combo. I just don't think that's likely, though.

[Fuldu]

It's pretty clear they aren't killers -- the primary reason to believe they aren't scum (well, I suppose we might be misattributing the "fire" deaths to Hell, thinking about it, but one assumes the demons -are- evil, whereas we really don't know about Heaven.

It is, of course, possible to be scum without being a killing group, but I think a cult is unlikely, and most other possibilities even less so.

I disagree with this assessment. We have a number of totally unattributed "died" deaths (as opposed to malnutrition, burning, run over, fish, etc. that I agree are unlikely to be God/Metatron) and I would be perfectly willing to suggest that God/Metatron could be the culprits of these. As for why I don't want to lynch them if it isn't going to provide information, I guess my concern is that we could lynch one of them, discover that he's Metatron, and still not know whether we should lynch the other. So long as we have roles we

know

to be scum, I'd rather go after them first.

[Fuldu]

mith claimed the fish kill and the dog shit kill. Also arguably his (if he's scum) could be the run over kills. But we haven't even "determined" that mith was in a group. And we certainly haven't determined that he's made more kills than those that he offered to make.

On which, Fritzler, whether you're a good guy or not, you really, really, really need to learn how not to make scummy posts. Making comments that sound like you know more about the structure of scum than everybody else is a high sign of scummy behavior. I've argued as to why I think it's a bad idea, but I'm increasingly tempted to vote you anyway just because, as mneme comments, the probability of scum (based on behavior) outweighs the issue of information gathering.

[Fuldu]

Grievous Bodily Harm was the leader of the Other Horsemen. And I agree with esme that there aren't enough players left for all four OHs. The mechanism may just be that he's covering all four of them. I think it's possible that there could be one more OH, but I don't think that's very likely.

[Fuldu]

DRAMATIS PERSONAE

SUPERNATURAL BEINGS

God

(God)

Metatron

(The Voice of God)

Mole

(

Aziraphale

, An angel, and part-time rare book dealer) was run over, and has presumably discorporated, Night 1

Aelyn

,

Satan

(A Fallen Angel; the Adversary), died night 4

Mastermind of Sin

(

Beelzebub

, A Likewise Fallen Angel and Prince of Hell) died, and has presumably discorporated, Night 1

Hastur

(A Fallen Angel and Duke of Hell)

Genocide Heart

,

Ligur

(Likewise Fallen Angel and Duke of Hell), was lynched day 4.

Stewie

(

Crowley

, An Angel who did not so much Fall as Saunter Vaguely Downwards) died, and has presumably discorporated, Night 2

APOCALYPTIC HORSEPERSONS

Gaspode

(

DEATH

) was lynched, and discorporated, Day 2

War

(War)

Korais

,

Famine

, was lynched Day 5.

Peachy

,

Pollution

(Pollution), was lynched day 3

HUMANS

Thou-Shalt-Not-Commit-Adultery Pulsifer

(A Witchfinder)

Anges Nutter

(A Prophetess)

mepmuff

(

Newton Pulsifer

, Wages Clerk and Witchfinder Private) was run over, Night 2

PeaceBringer

(

Anathema Device

, Practical Occultist and Professional Descendent) was crushed by fish, Night 3

Coron

(

Shadwell

, Witchfinder Sergeant) was burned, Night 3

Rolandofthewhite

,

Madame Tracy

(Painted Jezebel [mornings only, Thursdays by arrangement] and medium), died night 5.

Sister Mary Loquacious

(A Satanic Nun of the Chattering Order of St. Beryl)

Mr. Young

(A Father)

Fuldu

,

Mr. Tyler

(A Chairman of a Residents' Association), was enveloped by fire, and died, night 4

A Delivery Man

THEM

ADAM

(An Antichrist)

Porro

(

Pepper

, A Girl, and member of Them) died of malnutrition, Night 1

Wensleydale

(A Boy)

Internet Stranger

(

Brian

, A Boy, and member of Them) was burned, Night 1

Dragon Phoenix

(

Atlantisan

, Townie) was mod killed, Night 3.

Thoth

,

American

, was modkilled day 6.

Mith

,

Grevious Bodily Harm

, was incinerated night 6.

Olio

,

Warlock

, was killed by.. dog shit night 6.

Locus Cosecant

,

Dog

(Satanical hellhound and cat-worrier), died night 5.

-----

So there it is again, with updated alignment opinions (totally mine, but I think unexceptional except for some of the yellows). Note that there are 11 not-dead roles listed and we've been told that two of them aren't in play. That leaves three empty slots in our remaining 12 players for miscellaneous other, so that actually is just enough for there to still be the other three Other Horsemen. There are only two potentially pro-town mason groups that I can see, so you can make of that what you will. I only see one character that makes sense for Pooky's claimed role mechanism, although in typing this up it occured to me that I had considered Sister Mary Loquacious as a potential mafia cop, so he could just be dressing up his results differently.

So, the way that that reads is that, depending on how the yellows play out and on what the other three roles are, there could be anywhere from two to eight remaining scum. I think we're probably on the low end of that; it's unlikely, for example, that there are both a full set of Other Horsemen scum

and

God/Metatron scum. My guess is that we probably have at least three (Hastur, War, and Sister Mary) and that one or the other of the two groups is a possibility. But they are in different groups, which means that even if it's a higher number, we're still in pretty good shape. I'm inclined to just lynch somebody who isn't me, Darklight, Pooky, Blackberry, or Fritzler (these last two I don't completely trust, but they're in a bad position if they are scum, since everybody knows who they are and we can lynch them in endgame if they don't turn up dead between now and then; Pooky might be Sister Mary, but barring evidence to the contrary, I'm willing to assume that's not true - certainly if he

is

a mafia cop, he's teamed with the demons, since he gave us Peachy).

[Fuldu]

I said that the color opinions are totally mine, but I don't understand why anyone would think that the Delivery Man would be bad. He's a nondescript character in the book who just ends up getting killed by the Horsemen. It's like suggesting that Mr. Young is going to be a SK-variant whose goal is to get Adam grounded. I suppose it's possible, but it doesn't make any sense and I haven't seen any evidence to support it.

As for the Full Chorus line, I'm replacing it, as I'm replacing every other line with dead players, with the names of those players and their roles. And I'm not counting them in the list of characters numbers because all that does is tell us that maybe we're better off than we think. If there's a Tibetan, an Alien, and a rare and strange creature still in play, then that would mean that there are no roles left that aren't on that list. I think it's more useful to assume that that sort of role

might

occur as part (or all) of our three open roles, but that they might be something else, as well.

[Fuldu]

That's an interesting interpretation. I guess I can see that, but even going back over it with that interpretation in mind, he still looks to me like he was hired to do his job and did it without any awareness of the consequences. I certainly don't see any evidence that he got killed voluntarily so much as that once he realized it was happening he was resigned to it.

[Fuldu]

Fritzler, mith told us he was going to vig olio overnight, and then olio died via something that (mostly) makes sense with mith's role. mith (or if it exists, his group) killed olio. There's just no question about that.

al, the other way to get three additional roles is by mining the book for characters not on the list. The Other Horsemen are among these, as is Warlock. I can think of at least two others that would not surprise me if they showed up. Again, the point is not that I think the Tibetan, Alien, or rare creature roles definitely don't exist, but just that not including them in the count allows us greater flexibility in considering what possibilities might be out there.

esme seems almost maniacally devoted to causing trouble with the more probably innocent members of the town (questioning Pooky's actions, arguing with me about stuff that really isn't important and where I've expressed that it's just my opinion), which is probably the scummiest thing I've seen so far today.

vote: esme

[Fuldu]

Am I the only one who doesn't think there's any vanilla townies in this game? The choruses are the only one's i considered, but they must not be if thoth got himself modkilled.

No, I think there's an excellent chance that the choruses are vanilla townies. I've had to accept that the modkills simply don't make any sense from our viewpoint and that we'll just have to wait until after the game.

[Fuldu]

Probably not, Blackberry. Warlock was the regular human baby that got swapped with Adam in the book. He was raised by the family that was supposed to raise the anti-Christ and everyone involved was very upset when he turned out to be so very normal. I'd guess olio was probably a vanilla townie or close to it.

[Fuldu]

Mr. Flay:

esme seems almost maniacally devoted to causing trouble with the more probably innocent members of the town (questioning Pooky's actions, arguing with me about stuff that really isn't important and where I've expressed that it's just my opinion), which is probably the scummiest thing I've seen so far today. vote: esme

[Fuldu]

I would point out so as to belay the possibility of an investigation that when we "claimed" we were a mason trio and scum has already knocked one of us out. It seems silly to waste an investigation on that.

[Fuldu]

I think it makes better sense to reveal as we go along at this point. Pooky is likely to be among the strongest roles we have left, and if he gets night-killed, we lose whatever information he hasn't already posted.

[Fuldu]

Genocide Heart, the only demon to have been lynched instead of nightkilled, was deadline lynched with only six votes. Of the living players, those voting for her were myself, esme, and Mr. Flay.

Fritzler is clearly who he says he is, and I'm presently inclined to believe that he's good.

Pooky didn't vote for GH, but he has provided accurate results on non-demon scum, so he has some means of gathering information. It's possible he's a mafia cop, but for now I'll believe that he's a pro-town cop.

That leaves Al and mneme. mneme voted for GH and then removed his vote before he went away for several days. Reasonable behavior, but hard to completely grant him credit for. Al voted for both darquiel and SubtleTactix, the latter with only the reasoning "Well, I guess everybody else knows what they're doing." Obviously, I'd like to hear Pooky's information, but I'm ready to put a vote on al, for now.

[Fuldu]

Yes, al, it seems safe to claim abilities, but not role-name related information. In fact, I wouldn't have even claimed the day info that you did, but it's too late for that. And I'd like for you to claim your abilities, because right now you're my prime suspect.

[Fuldu]

C'mon people. Don't just lynch him. I'd like to give him an opportunity to defend himself. Just because there's good evidence clearing everyone else, doesn't mean that there isn't some of it that's wrong.

[Fuldu]

Al, you could claim your abilities. Depending on what you say, I can think of several other ways this could go.

[Fuldu]

I can think of exactly one character indicated as still living on Sunday, not dead in this game, not yet identified (or presumed identified), and vanilla. Assuming the roles are the full complement of 32 (including one each of the chorus), minus two missing roles, we're left with seven roles out of {Wensleydale, Hastur, God, Delivery Man, Agnes Nutter, Sister Mary Loquacious, Tibetan, Alien, and TSNCA Pulsifer} remaining. Greasy Johnson is not among those nine.

I think the argument that you were missing while Hastur continued to make kills is a compelling one, but I think you're likely to be Sister Mary.

[Fuldu]

Mafia cop or recruitable scum generally only count toward the win condition if the "official" scum know who that player is. If Hastur doesn't know who Sister Mary is (in the scenario we've posited) then he's just as likely to vote for her lynch in a situation in which the scum outnumber the town as for anybody else. That shouldn't be a winning situation, but the mod might see it differently.

Of course, if they know who one another are, then that's pretty much moot.

As for role-type claims, we have:

esme - townie
Fuldu - mason
mneme - unclaimed, that I can find
Mr. Flay - townie
Pooky - cop

I'd like to have mneme fill in that remaining blank.

[Fuldu]

Okay, so here's the list of remaining roles:

Hastur
Thou-Shalt-Not-Commit-Adultery Pulsifer
Agnes Nutter
Sister Mary Loquacious
A Delivery Man
Wensleydale
Alien

Of those seven, two aren't in this game. Also, I only see two that, if in the game, I would consider likely to be plain townies, A Delivery Man and Alien. If you go back over the posts of the three players who've claimed townie (and I still have to check who mneme replaced and look there, as well) the Delivery Man has been a topic of great discussion and speculation. esme has been pushing the idea that the Delivery Man might be scum. Mr. Flay has mentioned that the Delivery Man might have a separate win condition. Neither of those things are likely to be said by a plain townie who is the Delivery Man. That leads me to believe that there's a good chance mneme is telling the truth and that one or the other of Mr. Flay and esme is lying.

I see four possibilities:

1) esme is the only remaining scum. Pooky has innocent results on the other two and I am cleared through association. So if Pooky is telling the truth and there aren't GF issues to deal with, esme must be our scum.

2) Mr. Flay is the only remaining scum. This requires that Hastur have investigative immunity which, frankly, doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but it's possible.

3) two of the three claimed townies are scum. In this case, one of the two missing roles is one of the two townie roles (probably the Delivery Man) and either Hastur or Sister Mary has investigative protection. I'd assume Sister Mary, because of the implicit way Pooky's "vibes" seem to work based on mith. However, since I think it's extremely unlikely that they both have investigative immunity, esme's still scum.

4) Pooky is Sister Mary Loquacious, mafia cop. This is the problem scenario. In this case, mneme is still likely to be the Delivery Man, so Hastur is either esme or Mr. Flay. Offhand, it's more likely to be Mr. Flay, since Pooky has to realize that he's set up esme to probably be lynched today and it would be an awfully ballsy tactic to do that as a WIFOM. This scenario also explains how Pooky has survived this long.

I have some more thoughts on the subject, but I'd like to hear responses to this stuff before I proceed.

[Fuldu]

Well, the (and I think valid) point that esme makes about the GH wagon is that it was a deadline lynch and could easily have gone to no lynch instead with a little less support. It's not quite the same as saying that scum are willing to put votes on their buddies when if they hadn't done so, we might well have ended up not lynching their buddy.

So, what I think is that it isn't just a question of who the most probable scum is, but what the best play for today is. And that's a totally different question. I think the most likely scenario is probably that esme is the lone remaining scum. But I'm not confident that that's true. And (and this is the key) if there's only one scum left, then it's not vital that we get it right today. Today is not lynch or lose if we're down to one scum. It's only lynch or lose if we have two scum left. So my view is that we should play today to avoid losing, not necessarily to tie up the win.

And that means that esme is the wrong lynch for today. If there's only a single scum left, it's probably esme. But if there are two scum, we have several scenarios.

esme + Flay - possible, but not likely since they were both on the deadline GH lynch and it definitely wouldn't have gone through if they'd both remained off of it

esme + mneme - possible

Flay + mneme - highly improbable, since that means they both have investigative immunity

esme + Pooky - highly improbable, since, again, that's awfully ballsy of Pooky in terms of how he presented his investigations

Flay + Pooky - possible, and in fact the one of these two-scum scenarios I consider most probable

mneme + Pooky - improbable, since that means Flay has to be the Delivery Man even after his comment about a possible alternative win condition for that role. If Flay turns out to be the DM, I will be berating him for that comment, since he could easily have stuck with "I don't think that's likely" or simply not commenting on it.

Overall, my two most likely scenarios are either esme alone or Flay + Pooky, but the two scum scenario is more dangerous today and since there's a possibility that Flay is scum alone and no such possibility with Pooky, I think Mr. Flay is the right lynch for today. The only scenario I consider even remotely probable that would result in an immediate loss is esme + mneme. If Flay turns out the be the Alien (and the game isn't over) we

know

esme is the last scum tomorrow. If Flay turns out to be Hastur and the game isn't over, then Pooky is a good, but not certain, lynch the following day (since it's possible that Hastur has investigative immunity, even though I think it's unlikely). If Flay turns out to be Sister Mary, then tomorrow will be an interesting discussion.

I, of course, totally understand Pooky's viewpoint that if he knows he's innocent then esme is the right lynch. I agree with the argument, but since I don't know that he's innocent, I can't join him in that vote.

[Fuldu]

Fuldu didn't want to put the Delivery Man down as possible scum, so I strongly argued for it. Mr. Flay was against it, but conceded that he might have an alternative win condition. I think that this exchange makes it more *unlikely* that Mr. Flay is demon scum, not more likely.

I don't follow that conclusion at all. To my mind, it makes it more unlikely that Mr. Flay is the Delivery Man. Why would a plain townie even suggest that his role could have an alternative win condition? That's just bad play, to my way of thinking. And if Mr. Flay's not the Delivery Man and you're not the Delivery Man, then one of the two of you isn't the plain townie that you've claimed.

[Fuldu]

No, the proper thing to do would have been to ignore your comment. Your comments regarding DM were largely directed at me, not at him. It might have been suspicious or just tacky for

me

to have ignored your comments, but there were numerous other players who totally ignored that discussion without any impact whatsoever.

There are very, very few situations in which a pro-town player should even hint at the possibility of something that they know to be untrue and I would not consider this to be one of them. If Flay is the DM, then suggesting that DM might have an alternative win condition was a foolish concession (unless it's true, in which case I'd be hard pressed to call him a plain townie).

And I don't know why you're pressuring me to look through your old posts when it should be obvious that I

did

go through your old posts. In fact that I have looked through everyone's old posts for a variety of things, and landed upon the DM discussions as what I find to be the most noteworthy content of those posts at this time.

And I further don't understand why you're so all-fired-up at me about something when I'm promoting the idea of lynching somebody other than you today.

[Fuldu]

Fuldu, I don't understand how you find the two-scum possibility more likely, especially when it requires both two scum AND some sort of investigation immunity/flaw in Pooky's ability.

I don't consider it more likely, per se. I just consider it more threatening. If there's only one scum left, then we're not in a lynch or lose situation. If there are two scum left, then we are. So I'd rather play today on the assumption that there are two scum left to better ensure that we make it to tomorrow.

In short, I think the question of whether Pooky is scum or not can be put off until tomorrow, provided we make it through the night. But with three claimed townies and only two reasonable townie roles remaining, one of those three (and possibly two) is certain to be scum. If there's only one scum left esme is my bet, and if two scum are left Flay is my bet. But since the two scum scenario is more dangerous than the one scum scenario, I'd rather lynch Flay today. That is the whole of my argument. It isn't about who has proved their identity and who hasn't. It's about minimizing the risk if I'm wrong. The only piece of my argument that rests even slightly on identity isn't about people trying to get across who they are, but about what people have said that suggests who they aren't. That part might be wrong, but I think the reasoning behind it is sound.

[Fuldu]

How is it possible that I am the sole scum left, in your analysis? Hastur with investigation immunity??? Sister Mary, and no Hastur? I'm just curious what this is about.

Yes, I think it's possible that you're Hastur with investigative immunity. I don't think it's at all likely, but it is at least a plausible outcome, whereas I do not view three vanilla townies as a plausible outcome.

I don't agree with you that the two-scum possibility is more dangerous, but since you seem to think Pooky+Flay is the most likely pairing, I'm not sure how to convince you of that. But consider: if esme IS Hastur and the game isn't over, then who do we lynch tomorrow as (presumably) Sister Mary L.?

You mean if we lynch esme and she turns out to be Hastur? At that point I'd be inclined to lynch mneme. I know I've expressed why I don't think Pooky+esme is likely, and I believe I've expressed why I don't think Flay+esme is likely (deadline lynch of GH wouldn't have gone through if you'd both gotten off it). But if esme is scum, I think she's scum alone. Hell, the fact that she won't get behind my proposed lynch of Mr. Flay makes me disinclined to believe mneme+esme.

But how can you not agree that the two-scum possibility is more dangerous? You can disagree with me about how likely it is, but I keep saying that I don't really know how likely I believe it to be anyway. But two scum means lynch or lose; one scum doesn't. I don't see how two scum could possibly be considered less dangerous in this context.

But look at it this way. If we lynch you and you're Alien, then we

know

esme is scum. If we lynch you and you're Hastur, then we consider it very likely that Pooky is scum. If we lynch you and you're SML, then we have a potential problem, but I'd probably want to lynch mneme at that point. And if we lynch you and you're the DM, then there's an excellent chance that we've lost the game and I'll blame you (and you'll undoubtedly blame me).

I'm not on Hell's side. I have no way to convince you of that, if you won't believe Pooky's investigation. We're out of ways to "prove" it, if we are at lynch-or-lose. But consider my vote/attack on Genocide Heart, and overall play, not just today.

esme comes off comparably strong in this regard, which is why I've chosen to disregard that bandwagon entirely, except to suggest that you're probably not both scum.

since I know I'm town; that still allows me to Vote: esme.

You are our ONLY confirmed townie, Fuldu, and you likely won't survive the night even if we do lynch right. If you choose to eliminate me, then I hope you're wrong about us having two scum.

Well, so far nobody agrees with me, so I'm not sure how much you have to worry about in that regard. But these two quotes bring up a valuable point. As the only confirmed townie, I'm the only one making an argument that doesn't involve the words "since I know I'm town." Certainly, if you're town (and especially if you're not the Delivery Man), you should be voting esme. But none of the rest of us can verify that. Similarly, esme's argument that since she's town and doesn't believe that Hastur has immunity then Pooky must be scum makes perfect sense. But all of these arguments rely on a premise that isn't available to anyone else. My plan relies on facts that are equally available to everyone. People don't have to agree with all the conclusions I've drawn, and we can talk about that, but they shouldn't expect me to be the slightest bit swayed by arguments building off of flimsier premises.

[Fuldu]

Fuldu's posts make sense in every regard except for one thing, it's quite possible that a spy immune to investigations would also be unable to kill, all of the demon deaths have been by incineration and without Hastur, it's possible that they won't be able to kill anymore, in that case we won't be hardpressed to make a choice betw Mneme/Flay.

I did think of that, but it presumes that esme is Hastur, which I assume you're further concluding from the fact that you know you're innocent (see previous post for that rant). If you're the mafia spy, then I believe Flay is Hastur, at which point if we lynch him we're equally safe from harm.

[Fuldu]

The rest of us have pretty much the same information on Flay as we do on you, mneme. He's gotten an innocent investigative nod from Pooky.

I don't have a whole lot more to say at this point, but I wouldn't mind a quick nose count of who everyone would like to lynch today. I think I've made my feelings clear; if there are two scum left, Flay is probably one of them, and if there's only one scum left, lynching Flay gives us the best information for who to look at tomorrow.

[Fuldu]

I'm waiting for a nose-count response from mneme and Pooky before I go any further.

[Fuldu]

It was clearer in the original post where I brought it up. A nosecount is just a votecount without all the mess and potential bother of actually voting. Basically I want to know who the two of you would like to lynch.

[Fuldu]

You're completely ignoring the possibility of one scum, and it being esme. I'm *not* some sort of "common factor", and I don't get why people are saying I am.

I don't know that anyone's ignoring that. It's just the fact that if there's only one scum left, then we can deal with that tomorrow. You are generally the common factor in most of the probable two-scum scenarios. I agree with your implicit claim that if you're pro-town, the most likely scenario is that esme is scum by herself. But I don't know that you're pro-town in the way that you presume for all your conclusions about what we should do.

Also, figuring out which two roles might be left out really isn't especially helpful at this point, except to point out additional comments you've made that indicate to me that you're not the Delivery Man. Nobody, but nobody, says "allegiance unknown" about their own role, even in a no claim game.

Which brings me back to the fundamental argument that if neither esme or Flay is the Delivery Man, then one of them must be scum if the plain townie roles are to go around the way they need to. If there's only one scum left, it's more likely to be esme, but if there are two scum left, it's more likely to be Flay. Since two scum is the greater threat today, that makes Flay the right lynch for today.

[Fuldu]

Fuldu, I continue to be unable to respond to your accusations that I am/am not the Delivery Man. I simply won't risk a modkill at this late juncture; I'll vote first.

As you shouldn't. I'm making comments on that for everyone else's benefit, not yours. I guess the only other reason I'm putting those things out there is because if you do turn out to be the Delivery Man, I'm going to be pissed at you after the game and I want to make sure it's clear why.

[Fuldu]

I guess I would add to the Delivery Man argument with this. Flay doesn't like that I've pointed to him over esme as the preferable lynch for today, but he at least understands the basic principle at work that one of esme/Flay almost certainly has to be lying. Since he knows it's not him, he's in favor of lynching esme and has been pretty much all of today. esme, on the other hand, has Flay at the very bottom of her list of scum candidates, prefering to lynch Pooky or mneme first. To me, this just increases the likelhood that she's scum alone, since she knows that if we lynch Flay and he turns up Alien, she's next in line with very little recourse. Whereas, if we lynch Pooky and he turns up Agnes, she can still argue that one of the other two is Hastur with an investigative immunity. It's a hard sell, but a better bet given that she's pretty much talked herself out of every pro-town role except Alien.

[Fuldu]

The problem with lynching Pooky in the safeguarding-against-two-scum scenario is that if he's town and there's only one scum, having lynched him tells us little about who to lynch tomorrow.

Unlike mneme, I don't have anything against interpreting mod-given role/setup data in order to aid in analyzing roleclaims. Hence, I've concluded based on what we know about the setup and what people have said about their roles that it's extremely likely that either esme or Flay is lying. The more of this discussion we have, the more I'm convinced it's esme, but I still think Flay is the safest lynch for today, just to cover all our possible threats. If we lynch Flay, the only feasible scum layout to which we could lose is esme+mneme, since I find esme+Pooky to be beyond ridiculous. If I'm wrong about my analysis of either esme or Flay being a liar, then Pooky+mneme is a possibility, but I really don't think I'm wrong about that and, at the very least, I think that argument is well-supported. Since Flay+Pooky is a reasonable scum pair, I'm more concerned about Flay than esme today, and since esme+Flay is a plausible (though I think not enormously likely) scum pair, I'm more concerned about Flay than Pooky. Also, by lynching Flay, we can verify the conclusions I've come to about esme and Flay's roleclaims. If he turns out to be the Alien, then we know esme is lying, since she's worked harder to emphasize the possibility that Flay might be Delivery Man or that DM might be scum than Flay has. If he turns out to be DM, then we know not to listen to me and can go into the final day without automatically lynching esme. I view lynching Flay as providing the best combination of finding scum and producing valuable information.

[Fuldu]

Okay, now that I know you were the Delivery Man, Flay, why on earth would you purport any sort of questionable motives to your own role? If it hadn't been for all of that, I'd have been arguing for a Pooky lynch today.

[Fuldu]

Well, at the basic level, it was probably a screwup. However after watching *3* players get modkilled, I was particularly twitchy about getting knocked off myself. So I wanted to allay any suspicion that I was showing extraordinary knowledge about the Delivery Man, by throwing as much misinformation out there as real. Also, it appeared at that point that we were completely lacking in Role Cops, and I wasn't expecting you to take quite the tack you did. Maybe it fell under Lynch-All-Liars, but I still don't see why you were so adamant about what difference it made who I was or was not.

I still think we'd have been in a very different situation that day with two more players still alive (I'd have been willing to off Pooky, for one), but...*shrug*

It wasn't that it mattered who you were, exactly. What mattered was that three people had claimed plain townie and there were only two plain townie roles left. If neither you or esme was the Delivery Man, then one of you was certain to be scum, which was a better bet than going after Pooky.