Cultafia: Game over
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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So...if I'm reading this game right, it sounds like we most likely have 2 (or more) cults, and probably a SK. Which means there if both cult recruiters suceeded last night, we might already have as many as 5 anti-town people out of 15 here.
This has the potential to get very bad, very, very fast. We need those cult recruiters dead ASAP if the town's to have any chance at all. If there is a vig, it would be a very good idea for him to kill every night at least until any and all cult recuiters seem to be dead. I also highly reccomend that any recruitable pro-town roles (vigs, roleblockers, ect) do NOT CLAIM if they can AT ALL avoid it, unless it's the only possible way they can avoid getting lynched or unless they have some really key information from their role. And since we don't really want those people to claim, we probably want to avoid multiple bandwagon-to-a-claim tactics here.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Good thinking, Armlx. The only other reason I can see why a vig kill is likely to fail is if the person is doc-protected, but hopefully the vig's targeting suspicious people and the doc's targeting pro-town-looking people, so that's probably not all that likely.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Actually, I'd go with your initial statement. Even with just one cult recruiter, lynching a recruit puts the town one step closer to losing. (Cult loses one member at day; that night, cult gains one member and town loses one member due to recruitement; net result, town falls farther behind.) Vigging cult recruits isn't bad, but lynching a cult recruit is not a good thing until after any and all recruiters are dead.armlx wrote:EBWODP: A bit is probably exaggerated. Lynching a recruit is good, but lynching recruits for days on end is not going to win the game.
And lynching someone just because they're "likely to be recruited" is even worse, since then the cult would just recruit someone else instead. In fact,fos:Blazerunnerfor that logic.
Claims are to be avoided whenever possible, but if you do have a town power role, it is a little better to claim then to be lynched, because then at least we have a chance to lynch the cult recruiter that day instead.
Cult games are always hard to balance, and while we don't know much about the setup yet, I tend to think the odds are against us here. If we mislynch today, and if we are dealing with 2 recruiters and a SK, we might theoretically be in a situation where the town is no longer in the majority on day 2. It seems like we've got basically no margin of error this game.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Eh? Why's that? Just becasue the town was wrong on one bandwagon, dosn't mean they'll be equally wrong the next time.Blazerunner wrote:I think if someone got so cornered against the wall during the day to be forced to claim, I think the chances of the town to lynch a cult leader that day are not really good...
Another good point. Or they might not recruit him at all in order to avoid that. There's going to be a fair amount of second-guessing going on here.I had forgotten another thing. If both recruiters aim for the same person, it counts as a kill attempt. Another reason not to lynch right away, the recruiters might just end up killing him...I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Um, no, that's not at all true. There was a mafia discussion thread about the subject a month or so ago, and that's not at all what I said. Let me see if I can find it...armlx wrote:Unvote, Vote Yos2
I thought OMGUS was one of the scum tells you believed was overly relied on and not actually a scum tell.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yeah, here it is.
viewtopic.php?t=7506&start=0&postdays=0 ... highlight=
As you can see, I voted yes, and then went on to explain that I did think OMGUS voting is a scumtell; a weak one, but a valid one nonetheles.
By the way, before someone tries to nitpick me, when I mentioned "it's not OMGUS to vote someone on day 1 before you have anything to go on", I was speaking of stuff where someone random votes you on page one and you OMGUS vote them right back instead of a random vote yourself. This is different; a case was presented, it's clearly a non-random, serious vote, and he responded with a weak counter-attack and a OMGUS vote. That's scummy.Yosarian2 wrote:I tend to think it's usually a weak scumtell, so I voted yes.
It's not a scumtell to OMGUS vote someone day 1 when you've got nothing else to go on.
It's clearly not a scumtell to vote for someone with good reasons, no matter if they're voting you or not.
It's not even a scumtell to suspect someone slightly more because they're attacking someone you know to be pro-town (you, in this case), although considering how many votes people make over the course of a game this probably shouldn't be that significant most of the time.
However, most real OMGUS voting is voting in order to punish someone for voting you or deter them from voting for you, and/or to try and lynch off someone in order to prevent them lynching you off first, and/or an attack designed simply to discredit someone who's attacking you, and that's all solid scum-tell material. It's a scumtell because town are mostly concerned with using their votes first and formost to find and kill scum, and secondarally sometimes using their votes to deter anti-town activity. Town should not use their votes to defend themselves in this manner. However, scum care mostly about staying alive and destroying the town, in that order, and they tend to view their votes as another tool in their arsenal to do both of those things; so if someone is voting OMGUSly, or if someone is attacking for OMGUS reason, then it is a scum tell.
The complicating factor is that for pretty clear psyscological reasons, everyone tends to be more suspicious of people who are suspicious of them; the game leads to a very natural paranoia, and that can lead to votes that look OMGUSy. So, you've got to use a lot judgement here, and that's why I say it's a "weak" scum tell.
Still, scum will tactically OMGUS vote and tactically launch OMGUS attacks, both in order to defend themselves and weaken the position of their attacker, and good guys shouldn't (at least, not outside of some lynch or lose situations), so yeah, OMGUS voting is generally a scum tell (scum tell meaning "something scum do more then town").
So, armlx, where did you get the idea that I thought OMGUS isn't a scumtell, exactally? Did you have me confused with someone else or something?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Oh, hopefully you're right about unrecruitable townies, but on the other hand, the setup also strongly implies the existance of more then one cult recruiter. If the cults average one recruitment a night between then, then lynching cult recruits is still pretty bad. Besides which, even if everyone who's recruitable is dead or recruited, if the cult leader is still alive then the cult is still a mafia-like group that can kill; without him, they're much less dangerous. So cult recruits are still pretty much cannon fodder, and lynching them still wouldn't be a good thing.vikingfan wrote: Second, lynching (or in the case of a nightkill) a recruit is not necessarily bad. Your case would only be true if everyone could be recruited. But given the fact that Norinel is an experienced mod leads me to believe that not as many town players will be recruitable as expected (otherwise the town would be essentially dead with a mislynch or two). Theoretically, your case is true, but in reality, I don't think our situation is QUITE as dire as you're portraying.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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mnowax wrote: You know the funniest thing? If you are a Vanilla townie, Lurking is the best in this game. either you win with the town, or one of the cult will recruit you and you could win with the cult. I think only the SK would really try to kill a townie power role.fos:mnowaxfor suggesting that.
And no, if you lurk, you're likely to get lynched or vigged. If you get lynched or vigged as town, then you lose if the town loses, and getting lynched as town also makes the town more likely to lose. Besides, what cult would want to recruit a worthless townie? Even if you don't die, if you lurk you'd just sit there useless, and remember that if you're still town when the cult gets a majority you still lose. So no, lurking as town would be a horrible stratagy.
On the other hand, I kind of expect cult recruiters to lurk or semi-lurk, to try to stay in the background and let their expendable recruits do the dirty work. So lynching lurkers and quiet background semi-lurkers seems like a good idea this game.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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First of all, no one should claim vanillia townie, at all, under ANY circumstances. If you're vanillia townie, then no matter what, DO NOT CLAIM ANYTHING. We were talking abotu what to do if power roles claim, which is a very different thing.
On another note:
We don't actually know that; the mod specifically said that the following roles might or might not exist. There might be a vig, there might be a SK, there might be both, there might be neither. There might even be multiple vigs or SK's.First, there was only one body tonight, and we have the SK and the vigilante. There are 3 and only 3 things that may have happened:
Norinel wrote: This is a semi-open game; what follow are all the possible role PMs, but I won't tell you which ones are actually in the game, or how many.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Uh...what?mnowax wrote:Is there a reason why you killed dripping goofball?
Vote: Bladerunner
There's like a 95% chance that DG was killed by either a SK or a vig or both (it's theoretically both cults tried to recruit her, but I doubt it, and it's even less likely a cult recruiter chose to kill rather then recruit night 1). Are you accusing him of being a SK? Even if he was, do you think it'd even be a good idea to lynch a SK here? I'm confused.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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So, Blaze did you kill DGB?
Let me clarify something before you answer; you don't need to clarify and say if you're a vig or a SK. In fact, I'd rather you didn't specificy, because that way the cult won't know if they can recruit you, and either way we shouldn't lynch you today. However, if you say no, and we later discover Mnowax was telling the truth, I'll have to assume you're a cult leader that tried to recruit her or something, so lying is not in your best interest here.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Nope.springlullaby wrote:Unvote
Can cult leaders kill and recruit on the same night?
It's also true that if multiple cult recruiters try to recruit the same person, that person dies. However, in this case, I tend to think the most likely scenerio is that DGB was either vigged or killed by the SK.mod's post wrote:
You are the [cultname] Cult Leader. Every night, you may attempt to recruit one player into your cult or kill one player.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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In a normal game, I would agree with you. But in a game like this, I could see a random cult recruit intentionally sacrificing himself in order to cause one random mislynch; it might not be a bad trade for the cult in this game.armlx wrote: Even if it is true, its not like we are going to take his word over Mno's without a massively drastic reason.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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But...the thing I keep coming back to, the thing that no one seems to have answered yet, is, even if Mnowax is right and telling the truth, that would make Blaze either a vig or a SK, right? Would we really want to lynch a vig or a SK day 1 here?vikingfan wrote:I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Well, I agree that a SK is a threat to both town and cult. However, at this point (basically, at any point until the cult recruiters are dead), the cult is the main threat to him; any multi-person group spells doom for a SK in endgame unless he kills most of them off first, no matter if they're masons or mafia or whatever, and with a cult recruiter it's much harder; since the SK can't be recruited, basically his only way of winning would be to take out the cult or cults, because once they have enough members and the rest of the town gets small enough they'll have little problem finding and lynching him.
And, frankly, I tend to think if there are two cult recruiters, I tend to think this game is probably balanced pretty strongly against the town. I have trouble imagining any way it could not be. If there's a lynch, a vig kill, and a SK kill each day/night cycle, it seems like there's a much higher chance of taking out the cult recruiters early enough for the town to have a reasonable chance. Especally after the disaster of Lost Boys mafia, I really feel like in any cult game, the town has a very limited window to act in a cult game; every day the town fails to get rid of the cult leader, the cult grows stronger, the town gets weaker, the town actually has less and less idea of who's town and who's not, and more and more of the strong players in the game start acting against the interests of the town. After a while it gets to be like walking through quicksand.
Obveously we'd need to eliminate a SK eventually, but at the moment, I think the more kills that hit early, even semi-random ones, the more chance the town has to kill cult recruiters, or at least to whittle down some of the cult's numbers, before the game becomes much less winnable for the town.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Observation 1: Blaze kind of looks like a SK right now. He might or might not be, but that's less important to this argument, as the cult(s) wouldn't necessarally know if he is or is not unless he's a cult member.
Observation 2: The SK is a big theat to the cult. If the SK tries to kill and fails, he'll know it was the cult leader he targeted, and will probably either get that person lynched or kill them the next night (since the cult leader is also a big threat to the SK). And the cult has no way of dealing with the SK other then lynching him or just having a big cult in endgame; he can't be recruited and takes two nights to kill
Conclusion: Cult leaders/members are likely to get onto Blaze's wagon after Mnowax's claim.
So, based on that logic,vote:malthusis.
Malthusis, you completly ignored the whole "is lynching the SK a good idea" discussion, while keeping your vote on Blaze. Do you think lynching the SK day 1 is a good idea for the town? Could you explain exactally why you're voting him? Your motives here are unclear to me.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Or, possibly, he was worried someone else might have information about him, and wanted to know if he's be able to supress that information by hammering him.NabakovNabakov wrote: I forgot to comment on this in my replacement post, and I'm surprised nobody else really picked up on it (do our eyes go fuzzy once someone addresses something to the mod or something?) Asking about being able to talk in twilight would only make sense if Blazerunner had something to talkabout. If he wasn't asking just to satisfy curiousity, this can mean one of two things:
1) He had information he would want to impart
2) He had instructions he would want to giveI want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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I think at this point, the best bet is to lynch someone else and have the vig kill blaze. It's better to bandwagon someone unknown, and at least give him a chance to claim, rather then vig someone unknown and possibly lose a power role without him even having a chance to claim. The vig kill is guarenteed to kill at least a cult member, and we've got another chance to find a cult leader today. If Blaze is still alive tommorow, then we can re-think things, but he shouldn't be.
Anyway, Viking, why would the SK bother to kill a steadfast townie or whatever? A steadfast role is a threat to the cult, sure, but not really a threat to the SK.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Um, not to answer for him, but drawing attention to the fact that Stark hasn't posted yet is a helpful thing for Viking to do. I'd strongly encourage everyone to try and keep track of who's lurking, and to bring it to the town's attention like this.vollkan wrote:
So I take it this means you have completed a statistical survey which reveals that people who don't post are scum? I'd love to see the results if you have an excel chart or something.Viking wrote: and yet stark has yet to post in this game major fos.
'll mention here that I think that a large number of Volkan's rules are poor town stratagy. I don't see the need to get into a detailed stratagy debate just yet, at least not until he invokes one of his rules in a way I disagree with, but just for the record, these are the parts of his rules that seem pretty much completly wrong to me. And I will also note that, general rules or not, if he tries to invoke those rules in such a way as to harm the town I will consider it to be a scumtell; you're not getting an automatic meta-pass on stuff by just making a list of rules right now, Volkan.
Pretty much just disagree with those completly. Especally on day 1, hunches are fine, and looking for town tells and figuing out who is town is just as important as figuring out who is scum. Sure, you'll be wrong sometimes, but that applies just as much to scum tells. (Of course, in a cult game, some people's alignments might change, so town tells might be less useful here then in other games, but that's a different issue)vollkan wrote: I am exceptionally skeptical of "town tells". Recent experience in House afia has exacerbated this.
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3)Any player who justifies a vote/FoS/declaration of 'suspicion'/etc. on one of the following:- a) 'Hunch';
b) 'Gut';
c) 'Feeling';
d) 'Belief'; or
e) Anything that has a meaning similar to those of the above
I don't entirely disagree with you on this one, but, to hold you to the same standard you are demaning of others, I take it this means you have completed a statistical survey which reveals that people who act in a chaotic fashion are scum? I'd love to see the results if you have an excel chart or something.4)If you want to play in a chaotic fashion, that's fine. However, if I can't understand what you are doing I will demand an explanation and justification. If you don't provide me with one, your % rankingwillincrease.
Disagree with those two completly. Lurking, especally, is a scumtell, and better yet, it's an even better cult leader tell in this situation.5)Any person who accuses another person of being scum for one of the following:- a) Over-reaction;
b) Lurking;
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Can expect their % ranking to increase.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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For the love of God, mnowax, why did you just claim vig? Did you miss that entire early-game discussion about how pro-town power roles should not claim unless it's absolutly necessary? Especally since you have so little information to share; we already were assuming there's a SK. Why on Earth did you feel the need to claim?
Well, whatever. What's done is done. Just no one else claim today unless you're about to get lynched, ok? Please?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yeah...honestly, that was why I pretty much tried to just ignore him when he first said "I know blaze killed DGB!!!", I kinda figured it was just mnowax being random. Still, just no one else follow in his footsteps here, claiming is bad, m'k?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Well, I do tend to think lurking is always a scumtell, although of course like all scumtells it's not perfect. But like I said, I think it's even more crucial in this game, because the role that has the greatest motivation to stay in the background and not be noticed is the cult recruiter, which is also the role we most want to lynch. If we don't go after lurkers and semi-lurkers as a town, and I mean go after them agressivly and lynch them when it seems approperate, we could easily lose to a quet cult leader who lets his cult members do all his bandwagoning and attacking and such for him.vollkan wrote:
I've seen scum lurk. I've seen town lurk. I've wanted not to post as scum. I've wanted not to post as town. If I can identify strategic lurking, then some cause for suspicion may arise, but lurking in and of itself is a nulltell for me.Yos wrote: Disagree with those two completly. Lurking, especally, is a scumtell, and better yet, it's an even better cult leader tell in this situation.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Armlx already explained this, but yeah, the point was that if there are two cult recruiters and a SK, the odds are very high that anyone who claims a recruitable power role will be recruited and/or killed shortly after. So assuming we believe mnowax's claim today, the problem is that since he claimed so early, the longer the game goes the less we can trust him since by claiming a role potentially dangerous to the cult he just inceased the odds of getting recruited by the cult.springlullaby wrote:Yosarian, I'm not getting why claiming is bad, please re-explain it for me.
Right now we have one person who's claimed a power role, which isn't too bad because there's a lot of WIFOM involved (There might be an anti-cult doc who might protect him, the two cults don't want to both try and recruit the same guy at the same time or he might die, ect), but if anyone else claims today, the odds get a lot worse for the town.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Heh...if he'd tried to prevent me from questioning his rules, I'd probably be voting for him right now.NabakovNabakov wrote:@Vollkan: I was thinking something along the lines of "don't question my rules" seeing as how your discussion with Yos appears to be exactly what the list is attempting to avoid.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Occult: I would buy that, if Blaze claimed right before getting lynched. I don't think he was in any real danger of getting lynched when he claimed, though. I don't really see what he would have to gain by claiming there if he was a cult leader. Of course, I don't really see why he would claim there if he was a cult recruit either.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Huh? Many people don't vig kill night 1, while all SK's should kill night 1, so if I see a night 1 kill I tend to think that it was more likely cause by a SK then by a vig, although I'm pretty sure I did point out that either one was possible. Is that really so irrational?Skruffs wrote:Posts 19, 20, and 21 are all horrible.
Fos : yosarian, armlx, curiouskarmadog
Drippinggoofball was SHOT, which is the MO of both the vig (if there is one) and the sk (if there is one). Neither of these roles are assured, but all three of these players in their first (or thereabout) posts seem to indicate the opinion, at least ,that there may not be a vig and there is an SK.
Fos fos fos. The only reason anyone could know that there is an SK and not a vig is if a cult recruited the vig last night.
And I didn't assume there was a SK, I said there was probably a SK.
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Secondarily, I think 2 cults AND an sk seems like a bit much; if they were successful, then we just started the game with 33% scum and if we lynch wrong today, we wind up going to day 2 with 7/14(or 1 or 12) which is 50% scum which means an almost guaranteed scum win. I don't think a sane mod would use a setup which even, theoretically, COULD put the town in lylo day 1. [/quote]
Actually, I think having a SK in this setup actually increases the town's chance of winning over not having a SK in the setup, since the SK is unrecrutable and likely to kill cult recruiters or memebers.
And I also didn't say that there are two cults in my opening post. I think it's likely, mostly because the rules of this game and the discussion of the MD thread the mod linked to seem to imply that it's likely.
Ok, I never "play ignorant", and I certanly didn't this game. I have no idea what you mean by "speaking as a group" or "building town support for myself", unless you mean me talking about what is good for the town, which I always do when I'm trying to figure out what stratagy is good for the town, which, again, I always do. C'mon now, you've played enough games with me that you should know by now that this is what standard pro-town-Yos play looks like.Yos playing ignorant, speaking as a group, building town support for himself.. not liking it... fearmongering ...I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Well, if Blaze's going to get vigged anyway, he'd probably rather lynch him in order to distance, right?NabakovNabakov wrote: Why would he continue even after Mno had made it clear he was going to vig Blaze? Wouldn't that effectively eliminate the problemandtie up a vig kill. Whereas his plan now would likely have Blaze lynched and himself vigged/investigated as backlash.
I also agree that springlullaby is suspicious and lurkerish. That might not a bad lynch either.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Eh. The question has become a really WIFOM-ish question of "if Occult was cult leader and linked to Blaze, would he think it would look more scummy if he contined to press his distancing attack on Blaze, or if he backed off under pressure?"NabakovNabakov wrote: Well if Occult really is Blaze's leader, this situation has festered for so long that there's no course of action he could take to effectively distance. The best use for Blaze at that point would pretty much be as a meatsheild. (That's assuming Occult-leader would be able to escape today's lynch)I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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(shrug) I don't know if mnowax is being truthful. I don't really care, either, as no matter what his alignment is he's likely to be dead tonight after that claim; if he's a vig, the SK will likely kill him, if he's not, the vig will likely kill him.springlullaby wrote:And then there is Yosarian's reaction to mnowax claim, he reacted as if he knew him to be truthful, while in fact the fact that he claimed with hardly any vote on him make me find it suspicious.
We want cult members dead, but we can't afford to lynch them yet. If we lynch a cult member, then another person gets recruited tonight, it's bad for the town, since the cult didn't get any smaller and then the town did. What we need to do is lynch cult recruiter(s), and we need to do it now. If we don't, then no matter how many cult recruits we lynch, we still lose.Then there is the idea that lynching recruit is bad. That doesn't make sense either. Of course lynching cult leader is best, but lynching recruit is not so bad if there isn't a better alternative. Because number in cults count and will I think ultimately come back to bite town in the arse if cultees are left to thrive in plain sight.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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His claim was a bad idea no matter what.Occult wrote:Look, if blaze is cult recruit his claim makes no goddamn sense at the point in the game he did it.
If blaze is a leader, I can find find some reasons for his claim.
I could see a recruit claiming like that, especally an inexperenced person who's not really sure what he should be doing as a cult recruit. But a cult leader making that claim would be horrible, it would doom him pretty quickly; if Blaze dosn't die tonight, he will die tommorow, his claim made that inevitable. He'd have been better off claiming SK or something.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Well, if Mnowax is cult leader, he's likely to be targeted by both the vig and the SK and still die tonight. If he's SK, he'll be targeted by the real vig, and if that dosn't kill him the real vig is likely to claim tommorow. Really, I can't see Mnowax claiming what he did unless he's telling the truth, there's just no reason he would.the silent speaker wrote:Er, no, Yos, if he's SK or Leader he's got a nightkill immunity and will live to tomorrow.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Occult wrote: No, as a leader his claim of being a recruit draws attention away from him....
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Draws attention away from him? How does Blaze have LESS attention on him then otherwise? Isn't it clear that his claim dooms him to die at some point, when otherwise he was under very little real threat today?
Not to mention, if he's a lying leader, he's quite unnecessarally risking drawing a roleblocker counterclaim by claiming he started the game as a roleblocker.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Not to mention, if he was lying cult leader he'd also putting himself at even MORE risk by claiming to have blocked TSS last night, who might easily have been able to say "no, I wasn't blocked last night". All in all, his claim makes absolutly no sense at all as a cult leader who wasn't even under any real pressure, Occult.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Of course we don't know that. The point is, a cult leader wouldn't know either of those things either, and so adding in the whole roleblocker part of the claim just adds lots of extra risk for absolutly no reason if he's not telling the truth.Occult wrote: TSS isn't a confirmed power role and even if he was how would he know if he was blocked. We're also not even sure if there is a role blocker or if he would claim. I'm just saying you shouldn't rule it out so easily.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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I explained why I think mnowax is probably telling the truth. Yeah, it was a dumb claim to make, but it'd be an even dumber lie to make.springlullaby wrote:Unvote, Vote: Yosarian2
I didn't like his reaction to mnowax' claim, I'm liking his casual dismissal to my comment even less.
Then again, it looks like you just don't like it that one pro-town person is trusting another, because that messes with your plans, since after this post on your part I'm much more certain that you're scum.
Nice attempt at a WIFOM defense there. You're basically doing the "if I was scum I would want to act more pro-town" defense here, and that's just pointless.Your reasoning about how cult leader would play is also full of BS and WIFOM.
If I were a cult leader, I would want to play in the most town-like manner possible, so as to leave no possible angle of attack for as long as possible.
No, that's just wrong. It's not just "scummy in general", it's scummy like a scum who dosn't want to be at all noticed, with is more cult leader like then cult recruit like.Both are plausible, so you see, my behavior can be only be said to be scummy in general.
Besides, if even you're admitting that you've acted "scummy in general", then I think it's time for avote:springlullaby.
Especally after this post, it's becoming quite clear that you're the scum./
Oh? Annoyed we figured it out, are you? Or are you trying to say you're actually some other kind of scum?The fact that want to imply that I'm a cult leader when my play can't possibly tell you that makes me find you very scummy indeed.
...I'd like wagon on Yosarian2 and armlx, they have voiced both crap theories about not claiming and stuff.
Crap theories? What? Claiming is bad this game most of the time, unless you're about to get lynched. It was a bad move when monowax did it, and it'd be an even worse move for anyone else to do it unless they were under threat of lynch, and even then only if their claim was likely to prevent the lynch.
I'm sure that a cult leader like you would like it if all the recruitable pro-town roles would just stand up and claim now, but it's not going to happen.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Mnowax claimed vig, Blaze claimed cult recruit.Skruffs wrote:Note: I am aware that a few people have claimed, but I have been really busy this last weekend so I forget who claimed vig or whatnot. I'll figure it out later, but that is actually going to help me read this with a clean slate. I Think MNOWAX and Blazerunner both claimed *something* but I forget what.
Armlx attacked me because he apparently was under the impression that I didn't think OMGUSing is scummy, probably because he got it confused with something else I said in a different thread. I showed that he was wrong, and he dropped the attack.Armlx calls out Yos, for voting Blazerunner for OMGUS voting TheSilentSpeaker, who squirms delightfully and pulls up his 'official post' on OMGUS. The only way his post could be seen as applicable, though, is if he thought that A) TSS was town (or at least on his team) or B) he is twisting the normal OMGUS into something like this.
And yeah, I do think that Blaze's attack on TSS was an OMGUS attack, an attack entirely motivated by a desire to hit back at the person attacking you rather then one based on an honest suspicious. It looked like that to me. That wasn't the only reason I was suspicious of Blaze, but it was part of it. And now that Blaze has claimed scum, I think I can quite happily say that I was right about that.
Well, both in this thread and in the thread where he discussed the setup, the mod went into detail about what would happen if there were multiple cult recruiters, so at this point, I think it's likely that there are. Of course you are right that we don't know that for sure, which I think I already mentioned.Yos's 58: The setup takes pains to let everyone know what would happen if there are two cults (ie cult recruitors are unrecruitable) but there's nothing in the setup that would strongly indicate there is one recruitor or two, except for that line about the recruitors being unrecruitable.
Eh? Defensive how? I was only attacked once, by amrlx, and that was based on him misremembering a position I took in the MD forum.Yos suggests that tcult recruiters will lurk and fosses mnowax for suggesting townies do the same. Actually... I will give Yosarian brownie points for this oneNotebut has YOS been lurking? Most of his play up to that point has been... defensive, right?
If someone claims vanillia, is that going to stop people from voting them? It really shouldn't, in any game, and certanly not here. All that does is help the cult figure out both who is and is not recruitable, and to figure out who is and is not a power role. If you're under attack and you're vanillia, you should defend yourself to the best of your ability without claiming; a vanillia claim won't help the town figure out if they should lynch you or not anyway, and if you manage to survive the vanillia claim does help the scum a great deal.Yos tells vanillas not to claim. WHy? IF forced to claim or die, you are requesting them to die. Why?
YOu're being silly here. I thought Blaze looked suspicious quite early on and attacked him. I only opposed the bandwagon when it became about "Mnowax says Blaze killed DGB", partly because if Blaze did kill DGB then that might actually be a reason to want to keep Blaze alive; at the very least, the wagon really didn't make any sense at that point; and partly because I always wondered if Mnowax was just being wierd.Yosarian attacks Mnowax for this... this is interesting, he suggests that DGB may have been attacked by BOTH the vig and the SK although it says in the rules that any and all kill attempts would be noted, and since DGB only was shot once we know that she was only attacked by one playe r(successfully, anyways). HE begins to pry Mnowax about what he knows; if Blazerunner was fake-soft-claiming, this is Yosarian trying to get a claim out of Mnowax, since Mnowax 'took the bait', which means if one is cult, the other probably is, too. The last bit about 'why would we kill the SK?" might be considered an additional defense of Blaze as something OTHER than cult recruitor - which is intriguing. I can't imagine the cult recruitor would defend a lowly recruit (even a recruited vig if that WERE the case) like that, which implies that yosarian might be the recruit.
That's the second time you've said that, I still have absolutly no idea what the hell you're talking about, and it's starting to get on my nerves. I don't think I've ever "play deaf or dumb" in this game at all.yosarian plays deaf and dumb... more fossing necessary
"Hiding out"? WTF are you talking about?yos reasserts his SK thing, although he's been hiding out ever since blaze was 'caught', a dramatically different appproach.
Mnowax. Blaze's repeated insistance that he didn't kill DGB sounded honest to me, and I was trying to figure out what was going on. I never really thought it was that likely Mnowax was a cult recruit doing a crazy gambit, but it did seem possible at the time.141 -Curious what YOS meant in this post; who is he implying is the scum recruit, mnowax or blaze?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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I explained it in the the post where I voted for you, springlullaby, a post which I note you never bothered to respond to.
I think you look scummy, and specifically like the kind of scum who wants to stay in the background, which sounds more Cult Leader-ish then Cult Recruit-ish.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Well, pro-town roles claiming without a bloody good reason for it is almost always bad for us in this game; they'll probably either get recruited or killed. I'm not sure why you disagree with that.springlullaby wrote: Just to clarify, do you think that Yosarian proposed idea for town to never claim is a good idea? You realize that that idea was what I called crap upon, right?
WIFOM is not a wand you can wave to make valid arguments against you that you don't like go away.And what do you think Yosarian is 'right' about? I pointed out that the argument armlx used, and which Yosarian echoed later, to persuade town that I wasa cult leaderwas WIFOM and as such an invalid one to be convinced that I was a cult leader, and that using this argument was scummy in itself. How do you expect me to defend from a WIFOM argument in the first place?
I have examined your play; you've said very little this game, and most of what you have done dosn't make sense to me.Beside I did not at any time play to stay unnoticed, and I believe that if you care to examine my play, you'll reach that conclusion as well.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Uh, then why are you attacking me? I did say that there are a few situations where a pro-town person might want to claim; a pro-town person with a power role might want to claim if he's about to get lynched and he thinks claiming truthfully will prevent that, or there might be (rare) situations where a pro-town power role has enough information to make a claim worthwhile. All I did was point out the the risks of any pro-town role claiming are much higher then normal in this game, that vanillia townies should NEVER claim (they shouldn't even claim in a normal game, but it's esepcally bad in this game), and that people shouldn't role claim unless they absolutly have to.springlullaby wrote: Are you deliberately misreading me?
I never said 'town claiming without a bloody good reason' was a good idea.
All I've done is offer good, pro-town stratagy advice, you haven't been able to give a reason why you think by advice is anti-town, but yet you seem to be trying to use it as an excuse to attack me, for reasons I don't entierly understand. Your wierdness on this issue is one of the reasons you look really scummy.
Oh, I hate mnowax's play. Him claiming was a pretty serious error, and his earlier behavior about blaze and all that was perhaps even worse. Nonetheless, I think he's probably telling the truth, and I think he'll probably be able to prove tonight that he's telling the truth by killing Blaze; I'm not interested in trying to attack someone I think most likely is an honest pro-town vig, no matter what play errors he's made.In fact, I argued against it when I said that your reaction to mnowax claim didn't feel right to me. Wouldn't you say that it is quite queer for someone who cried so loudly that town shouldn't claim to not express any concern over the fact that mnowax claimed under very little pressure?
If you've got a rational reason to think Mnowax is lying scum, I'd like to hear it, but first you've got to explain how anything about Mnowax's play today would make any logical sense as a scum play on his part.
Uh...what? I SAID THAT if you have a power role, and if you think claiming your power role will prevent a claim, then you SHOULD claim, since while a power role claiming is bad it's not quite as bad as mislynching a power role. I made that quite clear earlier in the game, so I'm not sure where you're getting this strange idea that I was arguing no one should ever claim under any circumstances.I'm liking skruffs' suspicions because the plan for not claiming didn't make any sense to begin with. Of course town should be cautious about claiming because the nature of the game, but if one is gonna be lynched anyway, a last attempt to put town off a wrong tract is only sensible, which isn't to say that town is under any obligation to believe a claim.
Uh, what? In that very thing you quote, he specifically said that it's better to claim and risk potential cult recruitement then to get lynched, which seems to be the exact point you're trying to argue here. Are you delibratly misinterpreting everything everyone says here?Then there is this little treasure of nonsense from armlx.
Assuming that blues would only claim under direct threat of being lynched, tell me Yosarian, do you agree with this as well?armlx wrote:
Because those that claim pro-town recruitable roles, especially power roles that don't harm the SK such as the cop, create massive WIFOMsspringlullaby wrote:Yosarian, I'm not getting why claiming is bad, please re-explain it for me.as instead of dying and being death confirmed, they can become scum.Non-recruitable roles claiming simply lowers the target pool for the cult(s) to hit recruitables.
I'm pretty sure death via lynch is still < potential cult recruitment, but claiming outside of that scenario is not helping the town.
My argument was never WIFOM in any real sense. Your defense was compeltly WIFOM.As for the WIFOM, I suppose arguing against WIFOM with WIFOM wasn't a good idea, but there is little one can say against "you lurk, it is what a cult leader would do, lynch".
No, it's not.Moreover, what I pointed out was that the particular WIFOM armlx used was a very weak one because saying that my saying that 'cult leaders would want to appears as pro-town as possible' is equivalently plausible.
If you do a scummy act, you can't say "But scum wouldn't want to look scummy, they would want to look pro-town, so why would a scum act scummy?" The fact is, scum do act scummy dispite the fact that doing so might make them look less pro-town, because acting scummy means to act in a way that helps the scum win, if they get away with it.
Flying under the radar is a perfect example. It's a great scumtell, because it's something scum tend to do, because it's one of those things that, IF THE SCUM GET AWAY WITH IT, helps them win. So the town's job is to not let the scum get away with it. And that's even more true of a cult recruiter, who's primary goal during day 1 is to survive at least a few days in order to help their cult grow; they don't really care very much what happens during the day, so long as they don't die, so they have an extremly strong incentive to try and fly under the radar. Yes, that's partly balanced out by the fact that smart townies might be on the lookout for scum trying to fly under the radar, but only partly.
And your argument abotu me an Armlx is silly. "X and Y agree on some stuff, therefore they're probably scum together" is an inherently bad argument, at least until you know the alignment of one of those two people. I tend to think that the most likely explination is that Armlx agrees with me on some stuff because I'm making sense, because you're not, and because you just look scummy, which is the same reason that lots of other people seem to agree with me on the same things.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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If you're telling the truth, then that means Blaze roleblocked you.mnowax wrote:AHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA!!!!
Yosarian is either SK or Cult leader. I tried to vig Yos last night. i didn't go after Blaze.
Plus , i am still alive which is wierd, but ill take it!
Why, exactally, would you try to kill me after promising yesterday you'd kill the claimed cult recruit? You actually CLAIMED VIG, JUST so we would know that you were about to target Blaze, so we would know that if you died he was cult leader. So, why the hell would you go and change that? If you had died and blaze had lived, that would have led to a mislynch.
ALso, I'm confused about why exactally Blaze claimed cult memeber if he really wasn't recruited? WTF?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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2b, the one I think is most likely:Mnowax was town yesterday, and was telling the truth now. But after he claimed vig, he became a likely cult recruit. So the theory I think is most likely is:Hjallti wrote:First thoughts, while reading the posts
scenario 2
mnowax could be cult and claiming falsely:
In this case the real vig decided yesterday not to counterclaim yet. Did he guess there could be a second vig? Did he think it was wise to not claim?
Mnowax was pro-town yesterday
He killed Blaze last night, just like he said he would
Then he got recruited
Now that he's been recruited, he's become scum, and has decided to lie in order to try and get me lynched.
That's the most likely theory, I think.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Eh...I understand his point, but I don't think it's entierly valid, for the same reason that experenced players don't always get killed in a normal mafia game; because while they're tempting targets, they're also more likely to be doc-protected. Same applies here.armlx wrote:Hjallti's last post is very logical, though I'm wondering how Yosarian missed his list of experienced quality players. I have a pretty good idea why this could be true, but I want to hear his answer.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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Um, I'm not a lurker and never was, I'm one of the most active people in the game and have been all game. Are you paying attention here?mnowax wrote: i am quite serious. i just randomly picked yos hence the phrase random choice. Like i said in he very beginning, the best way to win here as a CL is to lurk. My opinion yos among other people was relative lurkers. i just figured id pick him.
And I really hope you're scum, I hope that as vig you wouldn't actually go and say "Hey, you know what, let me just kill Yosarian for lurking even though he's the second most active guy in the game".
Or perhaps you want to die because you're a recruit and don't want to be? Perhaps you figured you wanted to take me down with you, perhaps your cult recruiter asked you to?mnowax wrote: Lynch me if you want. it will prove i am a vig. my power is all gone. i have to wait two days before i can kill again, and by then i will almost certainly be culted, and useless. I have made terrible assumptions in this game, and if the only way to prove who i am is in death, then so be it. i also don't want to be a recruit, either do id rather die noble.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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That's a fair point. But if Mnowax was blocked, and you're right he probably was, that still dosn't explain any of his other actions. It dosn't explain why he's claimed he tried to kill me for reasons that make no sense, it dosn't explain why he's voting for me supposedly because of his night action even though he was blocked.Skruffs wrote: Why, then, was Blaze's block of him ineffective? Blaze is confirmed pro-town roleblocker, not recruited (or was killed before recruiterd, but that doesn't effect his play yesterday) - he 'true claimed' in twilight and said he would block MNOWAX, and there is no reason to think he wouldn't do that, considering that the rest of his post was also true.
I guess that could be too. It seems less likely to me, but Mnowax has acted so weird this game he could be almost anything.I'm more willing to believe MNOWAX is a cult-recruiter and blazerunner was SK'd or vigged by someone else than that mnowax was recruited last night.
Why wouldn't they? If the cult knows someone's recruitable, which would they rather do; kill him, in which case the town loses one member, or recruit him, in which case the town loses one member and they gain one member? Even just recruting someone and then trying to get the town to use a lynch on him is more in the cult's favor then just killing him outright.What would it benefit the cult to recruit (Rather than vaporize) a claimed vig/sk anyways?I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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TSS, I don't think a person would normally get modkilled for making a threat of "if I get recruited, I would do X", since that could easily just be a pro-town gambit (I think PJ did that once as a gambit). You'd get modkilled for doing it, sure, but that's a whole different thing.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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This debate is a bit silly. Skruffs, if you make a bad argument, people can, will, and should point out that it's a bad argument. That's one of the things pro-town people should pretty much always do. If you think it's bad that someone else isn't making cases of their own, and want to attack them for it, that's fine; but the fact that someone else isn't making cases is NOT a defense against you making an illogical case.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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From the Wiki:NabakovNabakov wrote: There are no scum in Cultafia.
So, yes, there are scum.Scum
see also: Anti-town
Scum is a catch-all term for any member of an informed minority, such as Serial Killers and Mafia goons. During a day phase, everybody is seemingly trying to locate and eliminate these roles.
It is typical to use the word scum as an adjective or other means as well. (i.e. That's a scummish thing to do. or You are acting quite scummy.)
This might seem like a semantic nitpick, but really, it's not, since I'd say "scum tells" apply pretty well to any anti-town role, especally an anti-town faction like a cult.I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie-
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Yosarian2 (shrug)
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