A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Twilight Sparkle]

Vote: Chesskid

[Twilight Sparkle]

Unvote, Vote: shadow1psc

[Twilight Sparkle]

I'd join the wagon on my bro Percy.....but we should already get down to business. Which VI goes first?

vote chesskid

You know I'm all about the policy lynches, but shadow is cheeky scum.

That said, Raise: Twilight Sparkle because I'm rather confident than my reads and their reads will be similar, which would lead to similar usage of the governor ability unless they're scum, in which case, woo, caught scum.

This man speaks wisdom.

lol @ rvbw *shrug*

It's not random.

What hydras we dealing with?

Just us, I think.

Someone wanna explain what a hydra brings to the game (mafia in general, not this theme)?

Hydras are formed for a few reasons. Ours is primarily because no one of us feels we can keep up with Storm of Swords completely on our own. We can all read along, but we are all long winded posters and sometimes it's hard to find time to make a post. So we all input our thoughts in a hydra QT and the person with the most time can input all three of our opinions in-thread.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

It would seem to me more scummy that people bw raise another person. Self raising doesn't seem inherently scummy in the slightest. Inb4 "you're scum for not thinking what you did is scummy"

No, you're scummy for Raising without voting and your only justification for self-raising being "a concise way to piss off zoraster."

[Twilight Sparkle]

Explain the scum motivation to pissing of zoraster as a newer player for me again. Because I missed it the first time.

There's no motivation for either faction. But someone who's scum is more likely to be primed to troll. Especially since this is Shadow's first large game on mafiascum. Scum tend to like to show false bravado, in my experience.

Based on personal experience and the player list as it is constituted now I see 1 player I consider a lock VI and 3 border-line cases who I might get the pass. There are 3 players I have no direct knowledge about who are new enough that they might also get the VI / newb pass.

Zdenek any of these people?

And we've already hit WIFOM. Hurray, congratulations on nullifying an entire argument.

Expand on this.

My suggestion is simply to stop raising anyone at all until things are a little more settled. By halfway through the day, we can make town reads PLUS we can make reads based on Hand raises.

This is where it's at.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

If I supported a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess I’d be voting for him.

Why don't you support a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess?

[Twilight Sparkle]

If I supported a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess I’d be voting for him.

Why don't you support a Day 1 policy lynch on Chess?

Because policy lynching doesn't work. I used to support them (which carried over from the old site I used to play at) but in my year here I've come to the conclusion they don't work. Furculow in [REDACTED] was the last straw for me. I support hanging VIs when they play scummy, not simply because they are historic VIs.

It depends what you mean by "dosen't work." Your ISO 1 suggests that you understand the value of town composition. I'm certainly not saying we should be policy lynching this instant; but blanket opposition to a Day 1 policy lynch seems a little heavy-handed. If there are no extremely convincing scum cases, a good policy lynch is a helluva silver medal.

Do you support a Day 1 policy lynch of Chesskid?

It'd be a good lynch. Not as good as a lynch on a likely scum, but a good lynch.

And which of the three heads are you anyway?

Every post so far has been hito. We do intend to sign all of our major posts; I haven't felt the need to sign one-liners.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Second head of the sparkly unicorn alliance checking in!

Poor Percy is screwed because of his performance last game. No one wants to raise him now.

I'm going to ask something a bit strange. Do people think that a one-shot governor would be useful for town? Say, on a town read in LYLO who looks lynchable but whom you're sooooo sure was town (which is a double-edged sword, if you're wrong or it )?

Right now, I think the role would mainly have a scum benefit, and even then, only when played at the right time. I'm asking because we're discussing the best use of the role in the Hydra QT. We'll explain more, later.

Longwinded statistics talk

Leaving aside that I agree with GreyICE/DGB that the difference between town and scum self-raising is negligible, in ACOK, people went meta on self-raising vs. raising someone else

on page one

(when scum!MacavityLock was the first to say not self-raising was a scumtell). How is the discussion here any worse? Instead of biding your time, you came out on

page three

to discuss what trends you hypothetically might have noticed, that hypothetically might have helped you catch scum in an alternate universe, had we all not been idiots who weren't psychic enough not to destroy your pristine experiment.

This feels like an excuse to post intimidating statistics and analysis to show everyone what a helpful protown townie you are. The real protown move would have been to keep your mouth shut for a few pages, even if the data had been somewhat compromised. Eh. I like a few of the questions you've been asking, but overall, your posts feel padded with theory talk and IIoA.

Then really it isn’t a few unless you have voices in your head you are counting we don’t know about. For that reason I don’t buy your hedging here. If you only trusted yourself you would have said “I’m the only player I trust”. For someone who prides themselves on strong oratory skills I’m not sure I buy your explanation.

And the scum motivation for backtracking on this would be _________?

And yet the very fact that you know this statistic tells us that scum could easily have seen this and decided to self-raise because "that's what town does".

Yes, I did know this general trend, though I didn't know the actual statistic. I was maf in the first one and didn't self-raise, because I genuinely thought it was stupid.

Okay, I played in the last one, and I'm calling you on this. Are you honestly saying that any point during or after the game, you'd thought, "Gee, it's funny that a disproportionate number of scum are raising people others than themselves"? Even though MacavityLock and xvart, two of your three scumbuddies, both self-raised at first?

I like GreyICE's argument that the statistical difference is negligible, but not yours that scum would be aware of the trend. Since the "trend" is only noticeable if you mathematically calculate the percentages, I really don't like you saying, "Oh, sure. Yeah. I totally noticed it was a trend all along."

In other news, I agree with Locke that DGB has been a bit off so far. Maybe it's that she's aggressively defending more than attacking so far. I also get the impression that she's trying too hard to seem careless. Also echoing Magna's question: why didn't you share your negative opinion of self-raising in

ACoK

?

Were I alone, I'd move my vote, but as I'm only one third of a pony, I'll let my partners

neigh

weigh in first.

~Mina

fixed ~ mod

[Twilight Sparkle]

Goddamn it.

Eddard Stark: could you fix my quote tags, please?

to clarify, at lylo shadow will ignore any townreads he has acquired throughout the game and follow any claimed investigative result. You disagree with that, Shadow?
Jesus I saved your ass from being mislynched. You reward me by going full retard at lylo.

So I don't actually need him to be scum to want him gone.

Anyway, I'm going to ignore chesskid and the irony he brings to the table for now.

Girls, girls, you're

both

very pretty.

So, um, do you have opinions on anything that's happened so far? Or are you going to play the same total flippancy card you did last game as scum until you got wagoned for it and miraculously raised your game?

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

*total useless fluff post before I hurry to get ready for work*

You can call me Mina if you're referring explicitly to a post I made, or Twilight/Twilight Sparkle/Sparkle/whatever. It really doesn't matter.

I normally play all-alted games (ironically, on a fansite for

A Song of Ice and Fire

), and everyone spots me within my first three posts.

I think you're being a bit paranoid about just how dangerous the governor role is, but I will deliberately withhold most of my thoughts on the Hand/governor role for a while. (I keep writing sentences and then deleting them.)

Preview-edit: Cow, whether or not you find GreyICE's and chess's behaviour eyeroll-worthy, do you find it scummy?

[Twilight Sparkle]

Cow, do you have some kind of posting restriction this game that limits you to smileys/actions?

[Twilight Sparkle]

hasdgfas, if you've got an explicit white-list (that is, you can only do specific *actions*), please perform every action that you are allowed to do as a response to this post.

If you don't have an explicit whitelist, shake your head.

[Twilight Sparkle]

The lack of whitelist from hasd is interesting. A whitelist is the most sensible way to keep it thematic; without one, I'm struggling to see what the actual restriction is that can't be exploited.

Well, lets try to figure this out. hasd, I'm going to ask a series of yes/no questions. Please nod or shake your head for each.

The number of potential *actions* I could post in thread (that is, the size of my allowable phrasebook) is...

...between one and ten

...between ten and one hundred

...larger than one hundred/only limited by vocabulary.

The phrases I post within *asterisks* must be verbs.

The phrases I post within *asterisks* must be below a certain word count.

I am allowed to use non-smiley images (in IMG tags) in my posts.

P.edit: Gray, you're putting the cart before the horse a little, giving him phrases before we learn the rules regarding his phrases...

[Twilight Sparkle]

Cool beans. I'm sure this will be great WIFOM when you do kill me. You said it in thread so the scum killed me to implicate you. Absolutely grade A vintage.

Let them.

OH wait

Do you

know

I'm town???

Did you just slip up?

He said "when you do kill me." He thinks you're scum, will kill him tonight, then tomorrow say, 'scum killed me to implicate me based off of this post!'.

I don't personally agree with that line of thinking, but it's certainly not a scumslip.

GreyICE:

Have you played with any of us before? You seem to know all three of us, but at least personally, your name isn't ringing any bells.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

He said "when you do kill me." He thinks you're scum, will kill him tonight, then tomorrow say, 'scum killed me {you must mean 'GreyICE'} to implicate me based off of this post!'.

Ah, yeah, maybe. Well I'm going to NK him anyway so. You can lynch me today or tomorrow. If you lynch me tomorrow, then at least you'll have gotten rid of a major game annoyance.

[Twilight Sparkle]

I'm certain you two can have this discussion about differing styles without resorting to personal insults. Do so.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Our hydra hasn't been at full strength for the last few days. These are mostly my (hito) personal thoughts, with some input from Mina via AIM. I point this out because ideally, we'll

normally

be expressing our consensus reads, no matter the poster, but in this case this is heavily me-biased. Sorry if Sotty ends up thinking differently. I know it's annoying to have skitzo hydras; the alternative is no hydra.

The strongest read from us is GreyICE-town. While I'm not happy with the needless vitriol he's spewing in the thread (I have no objection to "Sparky" myself, but in general the trolling and nicknames aren't winning you any favors) and his DGB LAL case is sketchy at best, his hard-to-fake passion and high engagement with the game all scream town, town, town.

As for MoI, the juries still out read-wise, but one thing I'd like to address immediately. GreyICE mentioned that he was only skimming your grievous walls. You responded with this:

I'll say it again - Reading isn't a hardship. Mafia is a WRITTEN game. If you don't want to read go find another hobby like Etch-a-Sketch or Lite Brite.

That condescending attitude helps no one. Yes, this is a game about reading, but that doesn't mean that it's equally easy, enjoyable, or useful to give us giant walls. If I were to write all of my posts in Pig Latin, it is obvious I could not take recourse in the "this is a written game" defense; but oftentimes slogging through a large wall is equally as annoying as deciphering Pig Latin. I wouldn't say it in the overly aggressive way GreyICE phrased it ("fuck you, I'm not reading that!"), but all the same, I think it's worth saying that you absolutely

do

have an obligation as town to try to make your thoughts as readable as possible, and concision is a very helpful tool to that end.

Benmage is looking fairly townish (we've all got some experience with him), though we'll be holding on to our raise vote. Chess (unfortunately) is likely town. Shadow is also picking up some town points (feels like a newer player wouldn't be so chatty with the weight of a scum role on their soul), which makes our vote fairly stale.

Unvote

As for who to put it on, the winner is ASOIAF for this:

I'm down to see where this goes. I liked your posts so far.

RAISE BENMAGE


Also what the hell are VIs?

You don't know what a VI means, so what exactly did you like about the posts of someone most just recommending we policy lynch them? Rav points this out in 209; I am similarly confused.

Vote: A Song of Ice and Fire

@Nexus:

I almost voted Raivann for post #143 when I was re reading, but later posts changed my mind. Votes with no explanation, even in RVS (I'm not entirely convinced we were still in RVS) aren't helpful.

I'm curious as to what these 'later posts' are.

@Cow:

I've been doing some mulling on your restriction. I have a quick question - can you dance?

@Zdenik:

What are your reads on GreyICE and MoI?

Also, to the town at large: do we agree that popping governor immediately on a target no one wants lynched is the way to go?

This is quickly turning into a wall in it's own right! Most of our players exist in a state of catch-up right now; so I'll end this one for now. Hopefully we can grab Sotty soon and get all of the ponies riding as one~

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

If you're not voting, you're not caught up.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Waiting to hear discussion on this:

Also, to the town at large: do we agree that popping governor immediately on a target no one wants lynched is the way to go?

[Twilight Sparkle]

MoI:

Explain how this:

Despite rolling town. I've been looking forward to this game way too much to not give it my A-game.

As long as your A-game doesn’t involve faking a guilty on someone who ends up Lannister aligned I’m happy to hear this.

Gels with this:

Unraise MoI
Raise Benmage

I’m willing to do this based on past experiences with you Ben. Don’t disappoint me.

= = = = = = =

Uh, guys, am I the only person who sees anything fucking wrong here?

Mikujin's brief catchup posts have been entirely underwhelming and, as it seems Grey has noticed, his reason for not voting seems contradictory to his previous post. Not only that, but if anyone can read through 14 pages and not find a good reason to vote anyone, it suggests scumhunting is hard work, which is often a good indicator of scum.

Pray tell, what's wrong with playing rather reserved? What's contradictory in pointing out a few things I've a distaste for and not following it up with a vote? I'm in no rush to make knee-jerk decisions based on isolated incidents that ping my gut. And whilest you've pointed out, Locke, that there's 14 pages worth of reading one can do, consider we've still more than a week to further poke and probe at the minds of others. Rushing in hastily leads to rash decisions and tunnel-vision.

A quick skim of your ISO in Newbie 959 goes against this line of thought. I see you replaced in and even placed a player at Lynch-1. There also seems to be a number of other votes placed that goes against the whole “I like to with hold my vote” line you are touting here.

What's the difference between then and now?

= = = = =

Had a bad few days, but I am caught up now, so hydra is at full strength. Thanks to my ponies in arms for posting in my absence.

~Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

Don't have the time for a longer post, but a couple of quick bits:

Firstly, Cow, you missed this:

I've been doing some mulling on your restriction. I have a quick question - can you dance?

As for the growing Raise wagon on us. As hinted at before, I'm of the

personal

opinion (hito-personal, not pony-personal) that the Governor role is best suited by immediately throwing it in the trash. The combination of events that merit it being used: a wagon being on a.) a likely townie who b.) is getting lynched anyway for some reason and c.) I'm confident I'm right and the majority of the town is wrong and d.) the usefulness of the person living is worth the lack of information on the people who wanted their flip, when all summed, seems silly enough that's it's not worth the damn thing. That being said, Magua said he'd get a read on us by seeing what we do with it, and I'm aiming for transparency here. I'd gladly pick up governor and hold on to it until I see a worthy use, if that's what you guys want, though my personal suspicions lie in the realm of "I will never use this turd".

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

I have played with Benmage-Town many times in the past. I feel I have a good sense of how he plays as such. His demeanour and play so far this game give me a Town read on him. And when we are Town together I’ve found we can work well.

The ‘faking a Guilty’ comment has to do with Gorrad’s recently ended Large game. Late in the game Ben, as a Cop, fake a guilty on a player he had a scum-read on. The player ended up being Town. Suffice it to say I wasn’t pleased with that play. Read the game if you like. Outside of Fate he was the only player (up until that gambit) that I trusted in terms of reads and judgement.

That gambit that blew up in his face is the source of my comment. It isn’t something that erases multiple other instances of my belief that Benmage can be a strong Pro-Town force.

To me, it read like you were taking a snipe at him as a VI and yet you had raised him after your early game rant. Your explanation tells me I read that wrong, but I am still paranoid. Can I get some games you were in with Benmage as a "Pro-Town force"?

= = = = = =

A quick skim of your ISO in Newbie 959 goes against this line of thought. I see you replaced in and even placed a player at Lynch-1. There also seems to be a number of other votes placed that goes against the whole “I like to with hold my vote” line you are touting here.

What's the difference between then and now?

Oh, I dunno, about 10 months? I've played exactly two games on Mafiascum (959 and Clash of Kings). I do play elsewhere, but I'd hardly consider play drawn from nearly a year ago relevant content - especially given that two games is hardly a sample size worth analyzing.

Okay, time has passed, so you regressed? I'm not seeing it. Although looking back at Clash of Kings I see you were scum and yet still voted early and reasonably often. A null point perhaps... I'm keeping an eye on it though. I never like overly cautious voters.

Basically what Magua said here

= = = = = =

Unraise: Twilight Sparkle

Raise: Percy

Based on what? Your only Raise before this was your first post, and if Percy had done anything to warrant a Raise you would have changed it prior to him needing to be prodded and his announcement or being sick so limited content.

I think it is clear what Magua is doing. The fact you missed this despite it being only just discussed doesn't sit well with me. Reads fake.

= = = = = =

As far as Cow and his restriction goes my gut says he is faking it, mostly because I am having a hard time understanding what he is trying to say. I don't think the mod would cripple someone that bad for the whole game. But it's all WIFOM'y but that is easily solved by a bullet between the eyes. The best solution to it all I think.

~Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

DR....I'm willing to vote DGB.

Although pending a further look. I'm pretty confident Sparkle is scum... Why haven't they requested the governor? They gonna throw it away? Sotty and hito are bad players ?!?!?!??!?! Baloney.... I'd want to give it to them, because it should be a doom sentence.

I don't get what you are driving at here. We haven't out right requested governor because we think it isn't that great of a power. It's one shot that won't make it to lylo and fretting over it like that is pretty crazy to me. I'm finding it a distraction.

= = = = =

Unraise: Twilight Sparkle

Raise: Percy

Based on what? Your only Raise before this was your first post, and if Percy had done anything to warrant a Raise you would have changed it prior to him needing to be prodded and his announcement or being sick so limited content.

I think it is clear what Magua is doing. The fact you missed this despite it being only just discussed doesn't sit well with me. Reads fake.

It is unclear to me and I don't see Percy being raised as a discussion point anywhere.

I'm not talking about raising Percy in partiuclar, I'm talking about Magua and who is choosing to raise and why. He is doing it in an attempt to read people as far as I can gather as reinforced in post 349. Your question reads like busy work.

= = = = = =

Ben keeps trying to get us to raise him. I'm not a fan of this. Insisting you're town and the best case for raising isn't convincing. Scumhunt and prove you're a useful asset instead.

What did you think of ICE trying to get the hand at the start of the game?

= = = = = =

Please point to the exact quote where you think I was swiping at Benmage as a VI. I’d really like to know where you saw that because that’s about as far removed from what I’ve said about Ben as you can get.

The snipe I am talking about is what I originally quoted here. It read like a dig at him because it was a response you gave to ben that wasn't actually needed. Ben was just talking about bringing his A game and you brought up some fail on his part as if he needed a reminder. I don't understand why you would do that unless it was you trying to discredit him. But I have noticed that your playstyle has changed from when we first played in that you like to throw out a lot of these quips at people that makes you sound very judgmental. I'm guessing it is a null tell now, but I don't like it much.

Combine all that with the fact I remembered you were raising benmage despite him not playing up to your standards recently and I saw a contradiction.

Actually as I type this out, I am getting more and more confused as to why you would raise Ben. He doesn't seem like your kind of player. His style is either hit or miss from my experience and as already demonstrated, you look down on players who “miss”. I'm gonna check out these links you have provided, but out of everyone in the game... I'm having a hard time swallowing you raising Benmage. Gut says you did it to either get him on your good side or to go with the flow. Neither is a good thing.

Oh and yeah, Hito is prodded. He's busy atm but will answer you as soon as he can.

= = = = = =

Seriously, the fact that someone of you (and I'm looking at you, Twilight Sparkle) are considering that governor is a

detriment

to the town on D1 is ludicrous.

I don't think it is a detriment. I just think it isn't as powerful as some people are acting.

Argh I see a lot of direct governer talk that is making my eyes glaze over. I'll read it properly later on and see if it changes my mind.

~Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

Magua, I think Mina went a little over board with what she posted about the governer. Hito is still busy so it is just me in the thread at this point but I will go with what he said. I would personally prefer to raise the player who is about to be lynched. Both is the end same end result. I don't think this one shot is that important.

But really this is whole thing is starting to feel like a theory discussion which in turn isn't scum hunting. Do you find us, or others like us scummy for wanting to throw away this power?

= = = = = =

MoI, that's not really what I said. In a nutshell, I couldn't see why you would raise Benmage, it doesn't fit

my

impression of your playstyle. Since then I have looked of the links a little and can see why you might want to. Plus he has looked pretty town in this game so far. It was just something that stuck on me on first read.

What's your opinion of Magua? Would you raise him?

= = = = = =

Okay so I need to do a little ISOing of Locke, Zora and possibly xvart and see what the cases on these guys are. That should help me get a foothold here and maybe even Hito will be back too.

~Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

Hey Cow, you saying that you're a dayvig?

@Twilight Sparkle – Hito edition : I don’t think you ever responded to my question regarding Newb scum’s motivation to draw attention to themselves in a Large Theme game with many experienced players (in relation to Shadow). Did I miss that explanation?

It's not about "motivation", it's about psychological priming. Neither side really wants to be cheeky for no reason; but given that someone was, it's more likely to be coming from someone who knows they're a different alignment than the person they're slighting.

Regardless, that was a weak early tell more than anything, and it's been drowned out by shadows chattiness (which, as I said last time, gives me a town vibe.) Maybe you noticed this and the question died in transit - sorry it took so long for me to field the ball.

I've only skimmed the last ten or so pages; I'll re-read and respond to points as I see them.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

I love it when someone who has gone under the radar mysteriously pops out of the woodworks to defend their lack of contribution when someone mentions their name.

...

...

What are you all looking at me for? *whistles innocently*

(But seriously, I do get annoyed with the "He's posted six times in Game A today and not in Game B yet!" argument, since it's much easier to focus on one game at a time. If you have a specific question for us or issues you'd like us to comment on, then bring them up. But otherwise, we'll post when we're ready to post--particularly since all three of us have to reach a consensus before we can move our vote or give our combined opinions.

That said, I'm supposed to be the "spam the hydra QT with fluff but never post in the main thread" head, but I can probably write a more comprehensive catch-up post within the next day or so. Just waiting on hito to catch up and give his more recent reads.)

Our original vote on ASOIAF was in part to get a reaction out of a player who'd probably be easy to read under pressure. But for now, we'd like to keep our vote on Thor because his replace-in post felt kind of forced (with all the jauntiness and beard jokes) and because his taking so long to weigh in on the thread is out of character for him. Right now I find Raivann most suspicious of the leading wagons (although I agree with Magna that if Raivann is scum, he's probably not a Stark), but we're leaning scum on Mikujin and zoraster as well. I haven't looked at the zoraster-Raivann connection case, though.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

* Thor665 has informed me he's slightly V/la.

Oops. I didn't notice this.

Hang on. Vote change may be pending. *heads to QT*

[Twilight Sparkle]

Aargh, I desperately need to do shopping for my trip now, and I don't have time for this game. And I'm still running off gut impressions. But Sotty and hito aren't here now and haven't been posting in the QT this weekend. Just a few quick comments:

@MagnaofIllusion: I've been meaning to ask you about something. How come you attacked GreyICE for accusing you of IIoA early on D1, but never responded to this post of mine?

It rang a small bell for me at the time when you attacked an easier target with a more controversial playstyle but left me alone. Maybe it's because despite GreyICE's rhetorical skills sucking, he rang as so genuinely town from our POV, so I disliked you hammering to him to death.

@Raivann: The impression I'd got from ACoK, on the contrary, was that you posted a reasonable amount, but dug yourself into a hole with your posts. You'd contradict your own opinions and shamelessly bandwagon your town reads, attacked people for ridiculous reasons, and had bizarre opinions. I'm still not fully caught up, so I don't have time to compare your ISOs, but I got that impression from some of your play here (for example, your odd list of reads early on).

Even if there aren't multiple scum factions, my reads aren't set in stone enough within one day of the thread's opening that I can't suspect someone who's said something negative about another player. But in your defence, yes, we never mentioned any issues with you other than to agree with your ASOIAF vote. I think I'd mentioned some reservations of both you and ASOIAF to hitogoroshi on AIM, but they didn't make it into hito's big catch-up post.

I'm confused by Thor. I fail at reading him in my past experience, but I don't recall him being this jokey in either the town or scum game I've seen him replace into. My judgment is pending when he catches up more officially.

Accurate Benmage assessment in forty words or less

Good lord, we're raising Benmage and I'm voting for it thanks to my predecessor? That's hilarious. Since Magna is on there I'll presume a logical argument has been presented for the idea, and since the other player (Magua) who I'd be likely to vote is currently voting Benmage I'll presume it's generally agreed on that the logic isn't terribad. Content to sit there for the nonce - at least this way he won't be mayor

The argument is that the people on his Raise wagon read him as town. You didn't miss anything.

Do you read Benmage as town? Are you supporting his Raise right now? Or is your vote just on there because you don't know what else to do with it? At the moment, would you compromise on a Benmage Raise?

Hmm. I've debated whether or not I should cast my Raise vote in this post. If we're giving it to the player who's most likely to be town, then the dayvig makes it obvious.

Raise: hasdgfas

Leaving aside that he's obviously not a Stark, Cow would not fake a posting restriction all game (attracting) AND have a dayvig as scum when both fit perfectly with his character's flavour. Why go to all that work when he can make himself look quasi-confirmed with an ability like that?

It might also be nice to give poor Cow a bit of a voice.

That said, I'm wavering on this. Cow is the right choice if we want to ensure the ability does no harm to the town. But I hadn't thought of the POV of using the Raise as an attempt to get a read both on the Hand and the people Raising him. And admittedly, a non-self-pardoning governor in LYLO isn't an insta-loss the way a double-voter was last game. I'm just paranoid that certain players are bold enough to get away with pardoning a buddy under suspicion.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP:

Even if there aren't multiple scum factions, my reads aren't set in stone enough within one day of the thread's opening that I can't suspect someone who's said something negative about another player

I suspect

.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Oh, and almost forgot, but the Mina head will be V/LA from this point onward to February 28th, and won't be able to answer any questions directed to her. Good luck until then!

[Twilight Sparkle]

I've fallen out of touch with this game. Not sure what it is. Part of it is that there a lot of new faces for me and it's hard to remember each players contributions. A lot of spammy chit-chat, a lot of mechanics babble. As Mina has said, this has led me to a reduced presence in QT.

So, I'm gonna pretend I'm replacing in and throw down an ISO spectacular. Alphabetical by the first person in the slot. Mina is on vacation, and Sotty is sick, so this is mostly gonna be me (though I have my compatriots gut reads from the QT.) Let's roll.

ISO Spectacular

Benmage

His quote walls are goddamn unreadable. Jeepers creepers man. That being said, when I actually put my waders on and slosh around in the walls, Ben seems fairly townish. DGB makes a soluble point that Ben wouldn't so casually advocate mass policy lynching as scum. He also said in his ISO 30:

Yeah I have balls as scum...but not as big as my town balls.

I'm definitely seeing his "town balls" here. It's the typical arrogant swagger I expect (and not necessarily enjoy) from Ben. His impetus to contribute seems town, as well.

So yeah, while I'm annoyed at his unreadable quote-walls (seriously man, pare it down!) I think Ben is town. As for why we don't want to raise you, Ben, it comes down to this:

I'm gonna use it as badassly as I can. Moar Raises.

The simple fact is, Governor isn't something that should feel bad-ass. If someone is in danger of being lynched, that means that they are someone a majority of people want flipped. At least some of them are townies. Even if you personally don't agree with a wagon, Governoring it can often lead to more issues down the road - what if they keep looking scummy? What if your read was wrong and you gave a scumbag a new lease on life?

If Governor is used at all, it should be used very carefully, and you seem like exactly the player who would be 100% confident that you are absolutely right and the majority of people are absolutely wrong on what someone is going to flip. Not the kind of person I want with governor. :p

(A note to the town at large - why not cow? Cow needs a voice as is, and is almost certainly town.)

Bunnylover

Not too much content here. Bunnylover's focus on Benmage's kill-the-VI's policy is understandable, given that Bunnylover was the third on his list.

@Bunnylover:

What is your current read on hascow?

He votes Raivann as a self-admitted sheep of Zde 596, but Zde's 596 is fairly convincing so I can't fault him for that one.

Overall, too early to say. He's cautious, but when the game started with someone calling for your policy lynch, caution is understandable.

Chesskid

75 post spammy annoying VI that I don't have the goddamn patience to deal with three days until deadline. A Chesskid vig would be radical.

---

EVERYONE NEEDS TO BE PAYING ATTENTION –

Deadline is in approximately 3 days. We don’t have much time to be messing around with singleton / doubleton cute votes for either lynch or Hand raise.

The following players need to get their votes to somewhere it might be effective as deadline approaches –

Lynch - DTMaster, Shadow, Twilight Sparkle, Mikujin, Chesskid, Cow
Raise – Locke, Dana, chesskid, Twilight Sparkle, Nexus, Ghostlin, Zoraster, DGB, Kast, Shadow.

As for lynching - yeah, I'm powering through the game right now. I still think Thor has a good chance of being scum but we'll let him catch up first. Rest assured in the eleventh hour I will vote for anything if this catch-up isn't done in time.

As for raising - I'm advocating a mass exodus to raising cow. If anyone disagrees, please, let me know why ASAP. If you don't disagree, raise cow.

More ISOS from me soon.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

You probably dont have the experience here yet to understand what I mean by quality of players. But those like DTM Thor Sparkle and LL can't not vote zoraster now.

Bad players can still be on good wagons...

But fair point that it's gotta be one or the other so close to deadline. Here, I'll briefly skip the alphabet and ISO zoraster and Raivann right here and now.

ISO Spectacular: Special Head-to-Head Editon!

In the blue corner, weighing in at 32 posts, it's the man from Asgard, Raivann!

Raivann's ISO 7 makes a very good point about ASOIAF, but I've said that already.

In his ISO 18, he switches from ASOIAF (now Thor) to xvart. He does so sheeping GreyICE. I have a town read on GreyICE (now DTM) so this is somewhat understandable.

His ISO 21, the "I have a townread on you, so don't vote me" looks scummy on it's own, and I assume that's what got this wagon a-turnin'.

I'll quote his ISO 23 rather than link it:

unvote. Vote:Thor
Oops on xvart

I dont like the raivann wagon. He's Lannister i'm 100%sure.

@Raivann:

"Oops?" What the hell do you mean, "Oops on xvart"?

His Zoraster push seems earnest enough.

And in the red corner, outweighing the competition at 47 posts, it's that premature assassin, zoraster!

A lot of his early posts are focused on the governor role. He's in the same boat we are (governor is by and large more trouble than it's worth.)

His vote is weird. It hops around a lot before settling on Kast. It idles there for a while, then he re-analyzes and drops it back on LL.

I disagree with his line of thought on Raivann. I may be biased, in that I completely agree with his line of thought re: ASOIAF, and so that position was very clear to me in a way it might not be clear to others. Oddly enough, zor himself backs off of Raivann-scum in ISO 25.

He votes for Raivann in ISO 34. It's a weird compromise, with a week left on deadline and people joining you on your pet wagon (LL.) And what of his post two days previous that if there was a good case, he wasn't seeing it? It's true that Raivann's scummy looking ISO 21 came between those two, though.



Overall, it's a hard choice between them. I'm more inclined to vote zoraster, but I wonder how much of that is simply that I agree with Raivann re: ASOIAF. Before I vote I want to hear what Raivann has to say about his xvart "oops".

[Twilight Sparkle]

Twilight-Hito’s ‘ISO Spectacular’ posts don’t do anything to convince me that they are actually scum-hunting. Case in point –

In his ISO 18, he switches from ASOIAF (now Thor) to xvart. He does so sheeping GreyICE. I have a town read on GreyICE (now DTM) so this is somewhat understandable.

This ISO read of Raivann the piggy-backs off GreyICE's 'scum-hunting' ignores that GreyICE’s point on xvart was complete bullshit. Doing straight ISO reads glossed over this fact that a straight reading of the thread would have clearly demonstrated.

@Twilight Hito –

does your GreyICE Town read come from his ISO or actually reading him in context?

Haven't done GreyICE's ISO yet. The town read comes from the thread is context, is shared by every head, and is a bit old news (see ISO 16.)

Skimming the thread straight, I don't agree with GreyICE in that particular instance, but I can understand the mistake that led him to that conclusion. And, given the way it was presented, I have no trouble believing that town-Raivann would find that post from GreyICE convincing. I don't at all see the "clearly demonstrated" you're mentioning. Are you saying that you think it's

impossible

for any townie, ever, to be convinced by GreyICE ISO 68?

Also, I really doubt zoraster's claim is true.

Unvote, Vote: Zoraster

(L-3)

[Twilight Sparkle]

For the record, I am here, but it's just me (Mina's on vacation, Sotty is sick.) I'm sick as well, but it's a more manageable sick and I'm catching up in bits and pieces. The names still run together in my head and it's making the whole thing hard to follow.

I agree with the arguments that there's probably just one scum team. Specifically, the lack of kill flavor and the relative obscurity of Bryden Tully.

I still have yet to catch up fully so I'll withhold my vote for now.

Apologies for all of this; I'm aware this is an unacceptable level of content but the simple fact of the matter is I've got a lot going on right now and my other game is taking priority (because when you're already caught-up, you can easily spend time to stay caught-up.)

More from me soon.

~hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

In fact, the problem can be summed up as so: Twilight Sparkle is hitogoroshi, Mina, and Sotty7, three good players. It is D2, after a thousand posts and two scum flips. Tell me who they think the scum are.

Mina's been on vacation for a week; Sotty's been sick for just about that long. So really, it's been just me, one good player, trying to find time for this game in between illness of my own (it's making it very hard for me to sleep, which has been hurting me all week but actually helped tonight!), classes, and another game where I'm also not at full speed.

ISO Spectacular

danakillsu

The most interesting thing is the dana<--->mijukin interaction. He's been voting for mijukin for most of the game (in one memorable occasion, voting for mijukin while he was already voting for mijukin.)

His vote for him today was framed thusly:

I had this read yesterday, I still have it today. Vote: Mikujin

"I had this read yesterday" doesn't sit at all well with me. Scum are oftentimes over-focused on consistency over anything else, and that seems awfully much like "hey guys, look, I didn't change my mind." A mijukin townflip casts a serious shadow on dana.

---

dindin

With his stark flip, it's worth hunting for connections.

The weirdest thing about dindin is his hop off of Raivann right at the end. ISO 20 is the post to read. Zoraster lynch was more-or-less in the bag; why the awkward swap?

I have a theory. We can see in dindin's ISO 15 that he was building connections between Raivann and zoraster, but wanted to lynch Raivann first. If he was bussing Raivann, he would get a free zoraster mislynch to push with purchase. (Ythill once used the term "grooming a mislynch", and I like it quite a bit.) However, with the other end being tested first, suddenly it's better to stop the presses on that bus because it won't get you the free mislynch. With the pendulum swinging from Raivann to zoraster, I find his awkward hop makes most sense as "well shit, don't have to bus after all." Incidentally, this lends a lot of weight to Bunnylover-town, since dindin used BL as his scapegoat to exit from the Raivann wagon. Regardless of Raivann's alignment, blatantly using BL as his reason to leave the wagon makes BL seem very likely non-stark (and, since one-scum appears to be most likely, likely-town.)

Though, that being said, there's the issue of Raivann's blatant “I have a town read on you, move your vote please” to dindin. It obviously would makes sense as a code for “stop bussing me”; but it also feels a tad awkward for a scum to say to his buddy.

Raivann:

How many games have you played as scum on-site?

---

DrippingGoofball

Her big push that cow was faking a PR gets some townpoints from me. I was in exactly the same boat, and had exactly the same thoughts. You can tell in her posts that she's worried scum is faking a PR to coast effortlessly all game. And, to her credit, she immediately realized the vast shift in likelihood once the dayvig actually happened.

I think as the flips come through we'll be able to learn a lot more from her constant lynch-list posting. I have absolutely no interest in lynching DGB at the moment. She seems pretty likely town, and more importantly, if she's scum, I suspect it'll be much easier to discern as the game rolls on.

---

GreyICE/DTMaster

GreyICE

Won't spend that much time rehasing old points as to why GreyICE looked town. I've already got little enough time for this damn game as is. :/

DTM

Nothing from him yet. He'd have to be pretty damn scummy to get rid of my town read on GreyICE, though.

---

Feysal

Feysal's posts are fairly dense but I'm liking what I'm seeing. An exception would be his attacking Raivann for attacking ASOIAF 206 (the post that said “I love Ben's posts about killing VI's, also wut are VI's”); I agree that that post seems scummy and needs pressure. That being said, he's attacking for a more nuanced reason than that, and I'm kinda agreeing with his Raivann case even while I suspect the same person he did/does.

He makes good points that we likely just have Starks, but then I think I said that already.

Overall, Feysal is one of my stronger town reads.

---

Hasdgfas

I thought he was almost certaintly fakeclaiming, but after his shot actually went through, I'm calling him confirmed town.

---

Kast

Hard to read with his heavy use of @'s without quotes. I don't want to back-scroll and try to glean the context but without it Kast is a hard read.

Glad to see him easily switch on LL when faced with the new evidence.

Juries still out; we'll see what happens when he gets back.

---

Locke Lamora

Mostly-confirmed town now; highly doubt Gregor is anything but a Lannister. I could, however, see him as a sk (I don't have my books with me atm, lent them to a friend, but I remember Twyin saying something about him as a dog in his service that he doesn't associate with house Lannister...someone with the books please confirm/deny). But sk hunting is something to save for when we have more night actions/flips to work with. Right now we're scumhunting, and LL ain't Stark.

---

LynchMePls

I skipped him alpahbetically and left him for last. For whatever reason I'm finding it hard to get anything out of him. I'm a little unhappy with how quickly he's swapping his read on Raivann based solely on Magua's logic. As well, I'd really like to hear your reasoning for Raising Bunnylover.

Null with gut badtimes pings for now.

---

MagnaOfIllusion

MoI is the anti-Spyrex. I tend to read Spyrex as town regardless of his alignment because I always glean some measure of earnesty from his style. Conversely, MoI's posting style makes me think he's scum, but I know it's not based on anything rational and it's just a gut dislike.

Sotty and Mina both have more experience with MoI and I'm happy leaving the question open for them. At any rate, he's certainly a net pro-town force at the moment (though I would've told you differently in the heat of GreyICE vs. MoI), and we've got way too much tempo to mess around lynching helpful players because they might be scum. That's not the answer my primal gut wants but my primal gut is by and large pretty stupid.

---

Magua

He's a very deliberate player. His posts march in sequence like neat little soliders. Reading his ISO, it's really quite remarkable. He flows from thinking about governor to thinking about the vig to pushing zoraster, 1-2-3. It's a very good style for town to have, but unfortunately, it's also a good style for scum to choose (if they can muster the energy – it's hard to do) because a.) it looks hella town and b.) it lets you march off your fake thoughts in easy sequence.

That being said, in my limited (MoCo) meta experience, he posts like this as town, and he's looking pretty solidly town here as well. I will say that as scum, it's an easier style that most to fake looking town with, and depending on how the next couple days pan out it might be worth revisiting Magua-scum. But, as with MoI, we have too much tempo to bother with testing “what if pro-town high activity player x is a scum mastermind”.

---

Mikujin (and Setael)

Mikujin

Very little of substance. I mentioned it earlier with “If you're not voting, you're not caught up.” His vote on DGB is a very safe one. I could easily see this being a vote that, as Kast put it, is “placating the mob”. Then again, as an overwhelmed townie with no scumreads who just wants to vote

someone

, seeing someone demand that a PR modkill themselves would be a good choice.

Setael is not yet in-thread; we'll have to watch him to get an idea as to this slots alignment. A mikujin lynch at this stage would be premature, though raising him is a pretty solid idea.

---

Nexus

Not too much out of Nexus. That being said, his ISO 7 seems to me to be pretty townish – I don't see scum being so prolific. He abandons his first two votes for very good reasons.

Very curious to see how he votes when he returns from V/LA.

---

Percy (and Ghostlin)

Percy

Nothin.'

Ghostlin

I'm in a similar position as him (I'm basically 'replacing in' to this game) and I can sympathize with the unpleasant task he has. He hasn't made too many connections with other players, but it's unfair to expect him to have done so. After reading Feysal's posts, I realize that I'm giving Raivann too much credit just for sharing a suspect with me, and ghostlins suspicion seems genuine.

One thing, though: ghostlin: Look at dindin's ISO 20. How do you interpret this with regards to Bunnylover?

---

Shadow1psc

As I said before, I disliked his initial tone, but his sheer chattiness seems unlikely to come from scum. His day one morass, while not particularly helpful, has an eagerness about it that I find hard to attribute to scuminess.

His day two performance, though, is odd. Compared to his sheer volume day one, I'm not understanding why he's comparatively so silent. His Raivann vote is a “I haven't forgotten my case on” vote, which I don't like (see: dana).

Shadow, I know you haven't forgotten your case on Raivann, but let's suppose I have. Convince me.

---

Song of ice and fire (and Thor665)

A Song of Ice and Fire

I'll say it again, I have a serious problem with ASOIAF's . It smells to me awfully like Raivann totally caught her on that tell and she fearfully lurked until she replaced out.

Thor665

Okay. This is admittedly a bit personally biased, but I take serious issue with what Thor is doing. I've been behind on this game for a long time, but one thing I did not do – could not

think

of doing – is only reading 1/4th of the thread and then feeling like I could participate in any meaningful capacity.

Scum don't actually need to be caught up to converse on the issues of the day. Townies, though, need to be to say anything useful. I can't imagine anyone reading to page eight and thinking that who they think the town/scum are matters at fucking all. The interpretation that is easily the most sensible to me is that Thor-scum feels obliged to make his “catch-up's” wall-quoting affairs, but doesn't have the energy to do it. He doesn't want to flake out, so he's 'playing' in real time while promising himself he'll fake that big catch-up sometime soon.

---

xvart

oh jesus christers another wallguy!

Gets town points for his push on dindin. I really like his arguing without voting on GreyICE – the whole exchange smacks of reasonable-town vs. aggressive-town. I'm not that happy with his recent ISO 13, though. Call it null while I see a little more of xvart – you can only ever get the true feel of a quote wall in real-time.

---

Zdenek

Gets major points for pointing out the dindin-bunnylover connection in his ISO 12.

Overall, I'm getting a decent town-read on him.

My three favorite lynches are Thor665, Raivann, and danakillsu. Thor665 and Raivann are not scum with each other.

Beyond that, I suspect to find at least one scum in kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin.

Vote: Thor665

Raise: danakillsu

As a reminder, Mina is still gone (though returning today, I think.) Sotty is going to try to catch up tomorrow. This was 100% my personal reading of the game.

I'll probably respond to recent pages in a more linear style soonish. It's 5:20AM here, and I have a 8:30 class. Not sure if I want the two hours of sleep or if I'm going to soldier on. So I might post right after this post, or I might post tomorrow after class and a refreshing nap.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP: When I say tomorrow I mean today, but after a period of unconsciousness. The practically defined tomorrow.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Town don't actually need to be caught up to converse on the issues of the day. Scum, though, need to be to say anything useful. I can't imagine anyone reading to page eight and thinking that who they think the town/scum are matters at Smurfing all. The interpretation that is easily the most sensible to me is that Thor-town feels obliged to make his “catch-up's” wall-quoting affairs, but doesn't have the energy to do it. He doesn't want to flake out, so he's 'playing' in real time while promising himself he'll make that big catch-up sometime soon.

Strangely enough I actually think mine manages to make *exactly* as much sense. Go figure.

Why do scum need to be caught up to say anything useful? As soon as a scumbag receives their role PM, they know who they don't want lynched. I agree that, with you only at page eight, who you think are town and scum don't matter at smurfing all. My problem is that what is your 'playing'? By your own admission, your reads are irrelevant. The difference is, even if you get in a 5 pages read/5 page posted treadmill, you're at least slowly commenting on real things. Instead, you're just chattering and defending yourself without making your reads informed in any way. I can personally attest that, as a townie behind on reading, I felt naked and unable to post in the thread. Scum, though, have to consciously remember that they are supposed to have reads, and it seems an easy to thing to forget and just coast along ensuring your own survival. That's my problem.

Also - serious question - you're accusing Song of "lurking" until she "flaked"? Does that really make sense to you?

Yes, it does. That is why I said it. I say things that make sense to me.

Pretty sure you have to actually say "nominate". But I do agree that a Mikujin townflip would necessarily make me look very scummy.

Ah, thanks for the catch.

nominate: danakillsu

LL 1065 is good shit.

2)Are you suggesting that Chesskid was the Stark kill?

yeah obviously Brynden Tully was the stark kill, STUPID FEYSAL

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

I also fail to see how page 5, comment, page 10 comment, page 15 comment. Is any inherently better than page 5 comment, most recent 5 pages, comment, page 10 comment.

Because until you fill that missing gap, what you think about the recent 5 pages is literally worthless as soon as you write it down. I've heard it described as "not mattering at smurfing all", even.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Twilight, could you explain this:

Beyond that, I suspect to find at least one scum in kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin.

Just saying that they're my second-tier scumreads.

First tier is dana and {Thor, Raivann}.

Second tier is kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin. Those are players without too much content/hard to read/gut pings. I'm not willing to call "you're scum" on any of them, but I expect that at least one of the four is going to end up scum and I'm keeping an alert eye as to which one.

It makes more sense if you read the whole ISO specatuclar.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

This is Mina-head checking in, although I'm still not caught up and hate Mafia right now. And given the position I've found ourselves in, I feel overwhelmed and as though I'm fighting on a hundred different fronts. I'm not sure if I should be combing through ISOs looking for connections to diddin, or answering every single point that anyone has made against us.

But first, I am going to rant, because in my current mood, I find it much more therapeutic to call you all nasty names than reread fifty pages.

Okay. I think some of the points against us are reasonable, while others are ridiculous. (For example, WTF? How is hitogoroshi correcting LMP on who killed whom a scummy defence of Feysal? What kind of reaction was LMP even looking for from Feysal? Scum!Feysal would KNOW diddin wasn't the Stark kill, duh.) But I will be honest and say that I can see why we're drawing some heat. Yes, we've been scattered and slow to move votes, we didn't particularly attack any of the flipped scum, we haven't been a protown driving force, and we've been struggling to catch up for most of the game. And sorry, hito, but I actually see Magna's point on Shadow, because I don't agree with the psychology of newb!scum being MORE likely to be controversial than newb!town.

However, the next person who says, "A Sotty, Mina, and hitogoroshi hydra would be MUCH more protown than this" gets throttled through their computer screen.

If you read the sign-up thread, you'll know I wasn't even supposed to be playing now. Sotty and hito invited me into their hydra as a glorified cheerleader only because I've been looking forward to this game for months and was unhappy to miss it. I knew that if I actually played, I'd only have time to skim the thread for the first month or so. The bulk of my contributions was supposed to be an occasional post in the hydra QT. It is fucking unfair to penalize them because my name is in the sig, under the logic that three non-VIs > two > one.

Unfortunately, we've learned the hard way that believe it or not, a hydra composed of three time-strapped players is not a hybrid monster player who's greater than the sum of its parts. It's just three time-strapped players who have to check everything with each other before they can make a move. Part of this is time constraints, and part of this is because the three of us are too similar.

As a result, we've been a bit scattered in our suspicions on D1. I'll write, "Let's vote Kast, because his first post is scummy fluff!" in the QT, and Sotty will say, "What do you mean? I totally agree with him on the Hand and policy lynches, so he's my BFF." And then we all go, "Oh, shit, I can't vote until you agree with me," and then things stagnate, because we're all so behind that we don't have a full picture of the game, and no one is confident enough in a read to push it. And by the time we can decide on a compromise vote, the conversation has moved on.

The ironic thing is that I personally would have been bolder in moving my vote had I actually BEEN scum, because I could confidently push any logical-sounding case without worrying if it contradicted my other heads' reads.

That said, scum can also use being a hydra as an excuse to fence-sit. We should not be given a free pass, because it's our responsibility to pull our slot's weight. But sadly, this is the reality of a hydra composed of three slow and deliberate players who are struggling to catch up. All we can do is try to be more cohesive from now on, so that you aren't forced to lynch us eventually for being unreadable.

So all the lazy paranoia over Sotty-hito-Mina being scummy for not being the towniest player in the game is really getting on my nerves. hito put a shitload of effort into his ISO extravaganza posts while two of us were away, and I feel terrible for him that people are reading them with scum-coloured glasses. All of us are frustrated that we don't have the time and energy to play this game at our top level--which was the whole reason we're hydra-ing in the first place.

[Twilight Sparkle]

It's after 5 AM, so I'm too tired to answer all the outstanding questions to us. This is just a grab bag of general comments:

Re: Thor, I've said this on D1, but I'm baffled at his attitude regardless of his alignment. This wasn't his playstyle upon replacing in for either Zachtown in the Mountains OR ACoK. For the record, he said in the scum QT for Zachtown that he was deliberately mimicking his town replacement methodology. So I can believe that he's having a bad game as scum and doesn't have the energy to maintain the charade.

That said, something in Thor's defence. I agree with hito that scum are somewhat more likely to jump right in before being caught up than town are. That's exactly what I did in DEFCON 2.0, after only reading the game thread once. Like hito said, you feel naked for posting as town when you're not caught up.

BUT I remember that in ACOK, Thor voted after having read up to Page 10, simply because he had a town read on one of the wagons and decided to sheep his other two town reads on the other. So I don't think his incomplete/anachronic approach to catching up alone is a scumtell.

For the record, the most likely scum on my wagon is Zdenek (will explain more in another post), but I see-saw back and forth on Magna because the towntells and the scumtells counterbalance each other. (And yes, I have been probing you to see what turns up, because that's what townies do to players they're unsure of; hell, 90% of my town game is asking random people questions. What happened to treating every player who BUDDIED you as a scumtell?) I'm actually wavering on Raivann, not just because of his interactions with diddin but because he's been showing the occasional genuine stab at scumhunting--if this isn't multiscum, then he's unusually competent.

I'm currently bickering with hito on AIM about Bunnylover. (No, don't ask why either of us are up, now.) I think one of Nexus/Bunnylover is probably scum regardless of Thor's alignment. Hito is trying to sell me on his theory (of which I'm somewhat sceptical) that diddin was bussing Raivann and trying to frame zoraster, and wouldn't have called BL on making the Raiv wagon look scummy were they partners. I personally think that if anything, that makes BL more likely and Raiv less likely Stark, but I'll reread diddin myself to make my own mind.

I can barely keep my eyes open right now, so I won't elaborate more on these reads. I have actual answers to Magna/Zdenek/Benmage's posts (such as why our vote stayed on Shadow for so long), but I'll save them for another day. hito says he may get around to some of them as well.

[Twilight Sparkle]

(Oh, and obviously, the above two posts were from Mina, in case someone has no ability whatsoever to spot posting styles.)

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Alright, starting from 1075 and sculling through five pages to see what I can find. No guarantees I'll hit everything - requote if I missed something.

Spoiler: Ben 1099 gets its own Spoiler tag

**1. As Magua and MoI and I have said they aren't nearly the full frontal town force you'd expect from this three-headed monster.

Already covered, multiple times. This is not all three of us at our best at once. This hydra was a specific creation to let us play when we know we couldn't come in with our A game. As it turns out, Sotty got sick and I got busy turning the projected 2x B game to a 2x D game, but expecting 3x A is just silly. If we were charging in at 100%, we'd be three separate slots.

2. They being experienced...Plagiarized my sentiments on the governor...its weak..no strong stance needed on this...despite placing a town read on me they never raised me.

How was my stance not strong? I think governor is a bad role, and it's probably best used by trashing it. As Hand, I would hold on to it because people wanted it to "get reads", but my inclination is that I would never use it.

We didn't give you hand despite the town read. This is because we were worried you were going to try to be a bad-ass hero with it (see ISO 30) by doing shit like - well, like you're doing. (Even if all of the scum are on your "to lynch" list, it's still not a good idea to decree that some people are vote-immune.)

3. Minor bickering with MoI on fluff regarding me did appear like undermining as MoI suggested.

*shrug* delegating this one away to whoever actually got in with MoI about it. I think it was Mina and I think she mentioned it in the vein of "of course I'm asking questions", but I'm not gonna bend over backwards verifying.

4. Way to much non-confrontational coastage.

At least in my personal case, my biggest scumread was ASOIAF, and she flaked from the game. True point I should've had more than one scumspect. Truth is about half of the names just ran together in my head until I actually sat down and ISO'd every goddamn one.

**5. Ding Ding Ding. In 1016 I illustrate how scum reacted to Zor's claim. You can reference diddin's reaction and match it up nicely with Sparkles.

dindin posted words and was scum. Benmage, you're posting words as well. You're scum.

I see no reason to pussyfoot around voting for people who are obviously fakeclaiming.

Are you fucking kidding me. I am s.p.e.l.l.i.n.g. out how to act town here.

(that's the problem)

Hito, STFU and let him answer. Your defense of him before he could even respond is noted.

Scum are less likely to realize that scum would not kill members of their own faction. True or false?

Twilight, response to my response of your post?

You said you were feeling overwhelmed but would catch up. Either you will or you won't. No need to respond until I see which.

I don't think I've seen a case from you, just you saying "if Satael is town, dana is prob-scum".

Why would I need a case?

2)Are you suggesting that Chesskid was the Stark kill?

yeah obviously Brynden Tully was the stark kill, STUPID FEYSAL

-hito

nominate: Twilight Sparkle

Scum are less likely to realize that scum would not kill members of their own faction. *nods* or *shakes head*?

Raivann is not diddin's partner. Raivann is not Stark. I'm pleased that Benmage took her lynch off the table for today, because the amount of people who are for her lynch despite the Raivann/diddin interaction D1 is mindboggling. Ghostlin will reply with something about bussing. Their interaction does not read like bussing, is what I'm saying.

I disagree. I think there's a definite chance that their interaction was a bus.

It's already too late/early (class in four and a half hours...homework due for said class and not done) so I'll just give my favorite bit: When dindin left the Raivann wagon, he said it was because zorasters fakeclaim was bad AND because "bunnylovers vote was bad, less sure about Raivann being scum". zorasters fakeclaim is bad enough that both town and scum can vote him with impunity. So, if Raivann is town, why go to the trouble to burn bridges on your town mislynch? Occam says: because you don't want to go back over the river at all. zoraster was a strong enough PULLING force for a vote; to pick out a stooge and implicate them as a PUSHING force in addition to this suggests to me that Raivann is scum and the stooge (Bunnylover) is town.

While skimming the posts at work on my phone today ,I couldn't see name or avatars because I zoomed in, I read something and I was like"damn who's this scumbag..."

Magua
He's a very deliberate player. His posts march in sequence like neat little soliders. Reading his ISO, it's really quite remarkable. He flows from thinking about governor to thinking about the vig to pushing zoraster, 1-2-3. It's a very good style for town to have, but unfortunately, it's also a good style for scum to choose (if they can muster the energy – it's hard to do) because a.) it looks hella town and b.) it lets you march off your fake thoughts in easy sequence.

That being said, in my limited (MoCo) meta experience, he posts like this as town, and he's looking pretty solidly town here as well. I will say that as scum, it's an easier style that most to fake looking town with, and depending on how the next couple days pan out it might be worth revisiting Magua-scum. But, as with MoI, we have too much tempo to bother with testing “what if pro-town high activity player x is a scum mastermind”.

This analysis seems like it's coming from a scum perspective. " Oh, I'm scumhunting and he's town but I'm gonna try and plant a seed of doubt in town because Benmage and Magua are scary."

So, no justification for the vote when you gave it, but when asked by Magua you respond "Gee, Magua, my biggest problem with Twilight is that when he has a town read on you he doesn't have it HARD ENOUGH."

Spoiler: MoI 1170 gets a spoiler block too!

My suspicion begins with the Shadow vote. It appeared as a simple early bandwagon vote but when questioned on it TS attempts to justify it by saying that inexperienced scum tend to be argumentative and aggrevating on purpose. That explanation doesn’t make sense and the justification is defense beyond what was necessary at that juncture.

Not quite argumentative. It wasn't a true argument, it was just random trolling, and I'm of the mindset (apparently the only one) that scum are more primed to be unhelpful to the town and thus more likely to troll.

I over-justified it because if I was right lots of pressure out of nowhere would make shadow-scum slip.

But yes, it did languish overly long. I wanted to gauge shadows reaction, but it should've switched sooner. There just wasn't a good mutual scumspect that anyone felt comfortable moving to.

The post in question by ASOIAF was on page 9. By this point Benmage has at least 20 posts and they certainly don’t all revolve around policy lynching. It’s a misrepresentation to say that ASOIAF liking Benmage’s multiple posts means she must support policy lynches on VIs and not knowing what one is means she’s contradictory.

They didn't all support policy lynches, but that is his main stand. Take out the policy lynching and there isn't much to Ben at that point; certainly not enough to explain liking his posts. The contradiction isn't that she must support policy lynches on VI's; the contradiction is that missing that information, she shouldn't have found Benmage to be townie and raise-worthy.

I’m not overly impressed with the ISO spectacular catch-up posts – there is lots of careful positioning language in those posts (example – Locke is pretty much confirmed Town but could be a Serial Killer) that I see as high level and well disguised fence-sitting.

It's not fence sitting, it's lack of omniscience. Locke is pretty much confirmed town, although he could be a serial killer. We'll be able to make a better judgement as the game goes on. Do you think differently?

I also find the “MoI is the Anti-Spyrex” explanation that hito finds my playstyle inherently scummy as a possible way for the hydra to move off the suspicion that Sotty and Mina have indicated.

I said that I'm mostly deferring the read of you to those two. If you think that it was the first act of a drifting away from the stated suspicion, why the hell didn't you wait to see what Sotty/Mina posted?

I asked because I wanted to see if you were also suggesting that there is a connection between these players. Your phrasing of: I expect to find one scum in these four, when there is no connection between the players bothers me. It feels like you cared more about making a post that sounded as though you were scum hunting hard, rather than one that properly conveyed what you wanted to say.

It did properly convey what I wanted to say. There is a list of four people, and I expect that at least one of them will be scum. Nothing about connections, as can be clearly divined by reading the relevant ISO's. I don't know how you managed to misread it, but it's pretty unambiguous.

Fine. Your internal consistency has earned my trust for now. unvote

Why did you unvote here?

Sorry for that wall.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

LMP, you missed this:

Scum are less likely to realize that scum would not kill members of their own faction. True or false?

[Twilight Sparkle]

You are trying to frame the issue in the incorrect direction. You’re scummy for pre-emptively answering a question aimed at another player in an attempt to gain “Town Cred” with your response.

I assumed LMP simply forgot who the kills/flips were and was trying to put him on track.

Why would I need a case?

Because you just stating things without support isn’t credible given the general scum-read many players have on you.

And here I thought answering questions aimed at other players was scummy...

I never said it was the first act of distancing. That’s a nice little mis-rep there. I also attack Sotty for similar behavior when she eventually backtracked on her “Benmage raise doesn’t make sense” line of attack.

You're missing my point. What I'm saying is, you said that you suspected my stance was to back away from Sotty/Mina's stated suspicion. But obviously, you can't know whether or not that's true until Sotty/Mina actually post (since what I said was that I was delegating the reading of you to them). Surely it would be better to keep that idea under your hat until Mina or Sotty confirm or deny your suspicions?

2. The issue is that your “MoI always reads as scummy” stance looks manufactured. You didn’t address it very significantly at all Day 1 in a way I find meaningful, which I would have expected if I were obv-scum for my playstyle. All I got from you was a little lecture about playing nice with GreyICE.

What's to address? You're a player that I don't think I can read accurately, so I refrained from weighing in on you and left that task to Mina and Sotty. The only reason I brought it up in thread at all is because I wanted to give my spiel on everyone, and Mina and Sotty's reads were both pretty stale at that point.

Why did you unvote here?

Because I think that Benmage is probably town, and if he's a PR, then he knows what he's doing.

And this is why you unvoted *Mikujin*?

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP: That was hito.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Hey, guess what? I'm feeling better now Even better news? I have just finished catching up! I'm up to date for the first time in over two weeks. Sorry to come back and find all this pressure of course, but I can understand most of it.

I very much dislike the Sotty-head’s questioning of my Benmage raise. It feels very much like probing / nitpicking looking for any justification for suspicion. Furthermore the back-peddling done when I questioned why she didn’t actually read the links provided before stating her opinion doesn’t reflect well on the whole line of questioning, IMO.

Well you're kinda right. I like to poke people, I

really

like to poke people I think will be hard to read. I thought I saw somewhat of a contradiction with your VI/benmage deal. I poked you on it, you showed me some games. When I made a follow up post (so not to fall behind in the game at the time. Somewhat ironic I know) I hadn't read the links but had other issues I wanted to voice so I did. Sure I could have ignored my gut when I made that post and just waited to read the games, but I like natural flowing back and forth.

Once I looked over the games I realized that maybe you were being truthful with me and that it is a point I should drop. So I admitted fault and backed away, or back tracked as you like to say. But what else would you have me do? Keep pushing something I now saw was faulty reasoning? That's just silly. I backed away because I was wrong, it's really as simple as that.

As of right now I have a strong town read on you for your reactions post Has' kill and your pressure on Magua among other things. I also can understand your vote on us. Basically your tone feels much more genuine these days I am comfortable with you, even if you're not with us.

Do I wish I had the time to check the links before airing out my gut. Oh yeah. Nothing I can do about that right now though.

I have to go and cook some supper but I plan to be back later and finish my ISOs. I'm probably going to take a look at the voters on us as well. So I only have real issues with Magua and Zdenek. The latters vote in particular was really weak.

Stray thought as I leave: Kast has been really lurky as well but hasn't been mentioned by anyone. If there is only one scum team he is likely a member.

~Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

Spoiler tags because there's quotewalls up in this bitch.

Spoiler: Response to Magua

So, again, my problem in a nutshell is in that list, you have a single strong scumread. On the other hand, you have fence-sitting positions aplenty. You say your three favorite lynches are Thor, Raivann, and danakillsu, but for both Raivann and danakillsu, you are flippy-floppy about whether they're scum.

dana is an associative case - calling it "flippy-floppy" is all kinds of misleading. When fence-sitting is used as a scumtell, it's done so in the sense of "well X is leaving both options open." I've clearly defined my thoughts on dana; the fact that I would change my mind if Mijukin flipped scum is prudence, not fence-sitting.

As for Raivann, I think there's a good chance he was bussed by dindin, but he can't be scum with my top scumread and there's dissent between Mina and myself as to the strength of the case. So yes, I'm not 'certain' he's scum, because a Thor scumflip virtually clears him. What's so goddamn scummy about this? I constantly think "what evidence would disprove my convictions?", and I often share my findings. To not do this is, honestly, pretty stupid.

Then you say your second tier is Kast, LynchMePls, Nexus, and Mikujin. Your reads on them, from just up above, are null, null-to-scum, *town*, and null. You including Nexus really rubs me the wrong way, considering what you said about him just above.

Here is what I said about Nexus:

Not too much out of Nexus. That being said, his ISO 7 seems to me to be pretty townish – I don't see scum being so prolific. He abandons his first two votes for very good reasons.

Very curious to see how he votes when he returns from V/LA.

So, not much content out of him, but he has a townish post. And I'm watching his return play.

Yes, despite the fact that he had one townie post, I still think he could be scum. I haven't seen much of him. You may notice that the list has three people who haven't posted much, and one person I had bad gut vibes on (lmp). I think that at least one of those four is probably scum.

There's a reason I didn't just say "town, town, scum" for my reads, as you did in my summary. I use

whole sentences

to get my thoughts across. Just because your summary of my reads use the same word for what I think about GreyICE and what I think about Nexus doesn't mean that's how it is. GreyICE/DTM is, "almost certainly town." Nexus is, "like some of what I saw, but haven't seen enough to feel comfortable."

For the record, the most likely scum on my wagon is Zdenek (will explain more in another post)

I would like more on this. Especially the change from the townread that was posted in #1060.

Read the bottom of 1060:

As a reminder, Mina is still gone (though returning today, I think.) Sotty is going to try to catch up tomorrow.

This was 100% my personal reading of the game.

What you quoted was from Mina's catchup.

Spoiler: Response to zdenek

Cognitive dissonance, hydra-schizophrenia, or softly attacking me as being "most likely scum on the wagon" while having a decent town-read on me. You also change your read of Nexus. Magua's also pointed these things out. I feel that you are adopting convenient reads rather than ones you actually believe in.

The second. I clearly labeled when my thoughts were exclusively mine. Those were Mina's. She hasn't yet had the time to outline her theory in QT, either - I'll make sure to chime in with my thoughts when she posts it.

Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.

Trying to undermine confirmed town is scummy.

Point out that someone being treated as confirmed town isn't actually confirmed town - and specifically including the criterion to look for that might disprove a LL confirmation - is what we in the business call

really fucking important.

Your extremely careful language on this ("who most people are percieving?") needs some elaboration. What do

you

think about LL?

Why would Kast cease to be scummy if there is more than one scum team?

I'm not Sotty, but I'm still reasonably comfortable fielding this one.

If kast was scum, but there was a second scumteam, the second scumteam would probably be taking at least some measure to groom his mislynch. The tell that "this lurker is getting a free pass - it seems like there is a significant group of players not interesting in pursuing his lynch" only works with ONE such group. With two, one scumgroup might not want to pressure kast, but the one without him would just see him as another easy-shot townie.

No, because I’m not going to let your post disappear into the depths of a Large Theme thread while we waited on your erstwhile companions. You three are a single slot – I’m not obligated to not address what I see as inconsistencies or play made by one with potential scum motivation just because you are ‘deferring’ your read to the others.

This isn't about being a hydra. What I'm saying is, you're calling it a scumtell because of what you

suspected

would happen; but why not wait and see what

actually

happens instead of calling it right away?

What’s to address? If you have a scum read on a player you should address it. That’s Mafia 101. And your original statement clearly stated you had a scum read on me since my playstyle dictates I look like scum regardless to you.

I don't always find it necessary to post my gut scum reads, because my gut is shitty and I'd rather just use it as a loose guide and look for something more substantial. This is doubly true when I know that my gut scum read is based off of something that is null for you.

If you're curious, the specific thing that pinged my gut was the Lite-Brite comment (well, that whole argument, but that's a handy keyword for it) to GreyICE. I think that anyone who haughtily refuses requests to be more readable is very likely scum. But from what I've seen of you, you'd do that regardless of alignment.

Yes, since Benmage asked me to. I have a hard time believing you don't already understand this.

I understand that. What I'm curious about is:

Either way, I can't figure out which it is, so I'm going to trust my townread and hope to simply incapacitate my main scumread for the night while lynching my secondary scum read.

Miijukin is not suddenly not your main scumread nor your secondary scum read. Certainly I can understand cooperating with Benmage, but I'm not understanding how you being unable to vote for Mijukin suddenly made him two slots (or more?) less scummy.

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP: -hito. man I suck at signing posts

[Twilight Sparkle]

I see Hito has expanded on a few things in my absence and I am happy with his explanations.

Twilight Sparkle (6) Magua, MagnaofIllusion, Benmage, Raivann, Zdenek, Hasdgfas

Looking at this I'm comfortable in spiting the six people in half. People who's votes I don't have an issue with and those I do.

MoI
Benmage
Cow

MoI's suspicions have had a logical townie like progression. It started early yesterday with his response to my questioning and has just built from there. Post 1170 is detailed reasoning for his suspicion and it reads genuine to me.

I'm not a fan of Benmage's bullying of other players but I have come to realize that is his meta. My experience with scumBenmage is him not being anywhere near as forceful or as brash as he has been in his game. Plus even with his governorship he has given the town a relatively large list to lynch from.

Looking at his ISO though it hard to pin down one or two reasons as to why he is voting us. A lot of his posting is rhetoric to get players to listen to him and follow him. I'd appreciate clarification as to why he suspects us, but he mostly gets a pass because I don't see ScumBen being so balls to the wall.

Cow was a player we had early suspicions of but his vigging pretty much wipes that away. He only votes us after pressure from Ben and I can't blame him for that. The fact I can see when and why he started suspecting us also makes me feel better (Here)

That leaves us with the other three:

Magua
Raivann
Zdenek

Magua

I don't like much of Magua's posting, it gives me the creepers. He also likes to talk about theory which makes him look busy while doing nothing. His exchange with Zor over the governor sticks out here and this is where he first starts to express suspicion of us. He kept taking passive aggressive swipes at us after all three heads made it clear we didn't value the governorship to mean much of anything. After I call him on this then he is on our case. Timing felt weak then and still does now.

Rest of day one we are constantly mentioned as one of his scum reads. From what I can tell it is because of what he said in post 615 where he said we hadn't been scum hunting. We certainly weren't number one scum hunter yesterday, but there were other slots who were doing little that get no attention. He justifies this later by saying there is scum on xtoxm's town list. Alright... But that is a pretty weak lead at this point.

Starts day two by voting for us. Really it is a pretty easy vote for him. He's right, we haven't done anything but what about Kast, Nexus, LMP (at this point, he has picked up since), Zdenek, Setael (ditto LMP), Thor or DTMaster? I'm not seeing the legit scum hunting that is present with MoI, it's opportunistic.

I won't rant like Mina, but the “Sotty, Hito + Mina should = Obvtown 24/7” rhetoric we're getting from him is just bullshit. Life happens, it's not like we have been active lurking we have literally been away from the thread. This line of attack is exceptionally weak and it spells bad mojo for Magua when it is his key point for attacking us.

I see no further explanation as to why we are his top read over any of the other players I listed. I see him pressuring other players to vote us, I see him out right stating we're scum, but other than that... He has no real case. I'm getting the strong sense that he is sheeping MoI and Benmage, using them both as a shield for his pressure on us. It's bogus.

Raivann

I had forgotten he was voting for us. His case is “Well they agreed with my Fire and Ice vote but now I am their number one suspect” Counter point, people can and will, change their minds. So what? I'm seeing some weak justification about Scum Mina and something Hito posted apparently being a scum perspective. Very underwhelming really and smacks a little of OMGUS. Not as horrible as Magua or Zdenek however

Zdenek

Lurky background player. Had a little to say about us yesterday, we got his RVS vote and he even raised us at one point, but chose to go with Benmage in the end. Then suddenly it is day two and he is agreeing with MoI about us

I agree with MoI that Twilight Sparkle's use of soft accusations against him is scummy.
MoI, since Zoraster's flip, what are your opinions of Nexus and Dana?

No elaboration that he even knows what soft accusations MoI is refering. This gave me the strong feeling that he was regurgitating MoI's read for sheeping purposes. Otherwise we would have seen at least a little explanation on what we did that was scummy.

Twilight, could you explain this:

Beyond that, I suspect to find at least one scum in kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin.

I find the arguments by Magua, benmage and MoI against Twilight Sparkle to be the most convincing ones so far, and I agree with them. I also strongly dislike Thor's play for reasons that have been pointed out by others (not reading the thread, not scum hunting), so

Vote Twilight Sparkle
Nominate Thor

Asks us an obvious question before more sheeping language to latch onto MoI. I have no clue if he even understands the case MoI is presenting on us at this point or what. He is just latching onto the reasoning with what feel very much like, empty words.

I really want to see the case on us in Zdenek's own words as soon as possible.

For the record, the most likely scum on my wagon is Zdenek (will explain more in another post)

Cognitive dissonance, hydra-schizophrenia, or softly attacking me as being "most likely scum on the wagon" while having a decent town-read on me. You also change your read of Nexus. Magua's also pointed these things out. I feel that you are adopting convenient reads rather than ones you actually believe in.

No, there is no softly attacking you. We believe you are probscum opportunisticly jumping on us.

Also noting once again the use of the phrase “softly attacking” more MoI mirroring.

I'm going to move our nomination;

Nominate: Zdenek

I still very much like our Thor vote. Zdenek and Magua are other scum reads. I wanted to put Feysal in there as well, but he has posted a juicy wall that I haven't got round to yet. So tomorrow I will be spending time looking over the case on him.

For now, bed.

[Twilight Sparkle]

^ Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

I know that was for Sotty but I'll take a couple:

Explain the belief that Thor + Raivann cannot be scum together (#1060 / #1108) with your vote for Thor and placing Raivann in the "issues with vote" category.

There's no rule saying that all of your scumreads have to be on a scumteam together. It's sloppy to clear people as town based off of flips that haven't happened yet.

We think Thor has a very large chance of flipping scum, we think Raivann has a fairly large chance of flipping scum, and a scumflip on one virtually confirms the other as town. There's no contradiction here.

Explain why you have no issues with hasdgfas voting you.

Almost-certaintly-town cow was pressured by probably-town-Benmage to put his vote somewhere more productive and he did. There are worse things.

Though that being said, you did remind me that cow posted without answering my question. Cow, I think you missed this in my wall:

Scum are less likely to realize that scum would not kill members of their own faction. *nods* or *shakes head*?

[Twilight Sparkle]

Explain "Magua is sheeping MoI and Benmage" with the fact that I'm the first on your wagon, and I was the first to call you out yesterday.

I never said you were sheeping, I said you have no case and are using MoI and Ben as a shield to that. Being first on our wagon today has little to nothing to do with any of that.

Explain why you should be held to the same scumhunting standards as, eg, Raivann or Bunnylover.

Nice selective name plucking. Explain why we shouldn't be held to the same standards as Kast, Thor, DTMaster, LMP?

Basically I'm saying there is a difference between active lurking and being completely away from the game. A big difference.

~Sotty.

[Twilight Sparkle]

So I really liked Setael's opening post into the game. The pressure on Feysal was pretty good I thought, but seeing her simply unvote almost right away looks strange to me. I really want to know what Feysal said that made her change her mind like that.

Chesskid had soft claimed Tywin Lannister, by saying his character had been the Hand before. The scum may have believed him and thought that Tywin would be a power role. If Chesskid did that on purpose, it was actually well done... he managed to draw a night kill, saving someone else and avoiding his own potential policy lynch.

This is when I started to get really bad vibes about Feysal. I think it was LMP that hit the nail on the head by commenting that it looks like that Feysal knows Chess was killed by scum. The tone of this, congratulating Chess, just feels off. Like he has inside knowledge of what went down over night.

Also looking back in post 1026 he talks about why he thinks there is only one scum team and the tone again just makes me think inside information. I currently have a weak scum read on him.

= = = = =

Magua looking back I see you were right and I did say sheeping last night in reference to your position on us. That is poor wording on my part. I agree you aren't sheeping but not just because you were the first vote on us, but because you haven't made any kind of case on us outside activity. I still like my shield comment though, it's like your using MoI and Ben to hide your lack of any real input towards us.

~Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

Say what? I said I wanted to incapacitate my main scumread for the night. Therefore I nominate Setael, Mikujin's replacement. What's the problem, again?

I had the replacements lined up wrong. Scratch that. Apologies.

@LMP: Excellent news.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

...Wait a minute. I thought your whole theory was that Feysal was scum because he'd slipped and revealed there'd been only one scumteam all along.

From your POV, it should have been obvious that there were two scumteams, because the Stark kill was missing.

(That explains your annoyance with hito correcting your "mistake," though.)

Also, why did you choose to kill chesskid?

[Twilight Sparkle]

^Mina, by the way.

[Twilight Sparkle]

I'm in the middle of writing a wall-post on Magna, but unfortunately, I'm running late for work. And Magna is the kind of player who needs to be tackled with a huge post with headings, subheadings and bulletpoints. But I'm going to answer a couple of things real quick:

@Twilight Sparkle –

If you haven’t already

please answer the following question

Maybe you missed it because it was behind a spoiler:

Why would Kast cease to be scummy if there is more than one scum team?

I'm not Sotty, but I'm still reasonably comfortable fielding this one.

If kast was scum, but there was a second scumteam, the second scumteam would probably be taking at least some measure to groom his mislynch. The tell that "this lurker is getting a free pass - it seems like there is a significant group of players not interesting in pursuing his lynch" only works with ONE such group. With two, one scumgroup might not want to pressure kast, but the one without him would just see him as another easy-shot townie.

Why does it confirm the other as Town? Wouldn’t it confirm the other as “Not Stark / Whatever faction the first flips” aligned? That doesn’t make sense to me.

Interesting.

This was posted before LMP's revelation that he killed chesskid.

Can you guess why we might have assumed that a scum Thor flip would confirm Raivann as town, and vice versa?

Magna, I would

really

like for you to answer this yourself. Because you seem to be implying that our comment was scummy. Do you think there's a problem with the underlying assumption behind it--at least before LynchMePls' claim?

[Twilight Sparkle]

Okay I'm busy with homework at the moment and can't get to that whole zdenek wallpost at the moment, but:

Your extremely careful language on this ("who most people are percieving?") needs some elaboration. What do you think about LL?

I don't think that he's scum.

Just gonna go ahead and make sure everyone sees that one.

Response to zdenek to come.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Oh, happy days.

Benmage, when I saw yet more of your attack and tunneling and cheerleading for votes on us the way you did to Percy in Zachtown in the Mountains, I'll admit my blood pressure rose, and I literally wanted to inflict physical violence on you. It was hard to even concentrate on this game because wall after wall of nitpicking over every throwaway sentence we made long after we'd started picking up our play was demoralizing (although having three players to fight arguments off at once helps a lot).

So now I don't even have to answer it, because we're not getting lynched today. We're DEFINITELY not getting lynched today.

Someone else is.

So guys. I will spend tonight on a monster case. Unfortunately, I'll only have time for one subject:

1) The player with whom I have reservations the size of a small continent and whose every post raises yet another alarm bell, simply because a couple of the arguments he's pushing are so ridiculous that I'm shocked he could genuinely believe them as town, but who wouldn't be my top choice for a lynch this early on.

2) The player who has virtually claimed scum.

Which would you prefer? I'm leaning toward 2, but the drama of leaving you hanging and doing 1 first is tempting.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

I left out a sentence in the above post. I was going to say, "But then a miracle happened" before the "so we don't have to even answer your post."

[Twilight Sparkle]

Also, your entire case on me is based on the fact that I agree with others about you, which is not a scum tell.

Case? What case? We’ve posted why you’re pinging us as scummy, and asked a few questions. No case.

This

, darling, is our case.

Point One: Inconsistency re: LL, but more importantly, his sidestepping around whether he could consider LL to be third party.

This is the crown jewel of the case. I am, quite frankly, comfortable lynching off of this alone. Let’s recap:

Locke is pretty much confirmed town, although he could be a serial killer.

Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.

His extremely forced, careful speech instantly pinged me as wrong. “Who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town?” So, I asked him about it:

Your extremely careful language on this ("who most people are perceiving?") needs some elaboration. What do you think about LL?

To which he responded:

I don't think that he's scum.

There are two different interpretations of his comment, and both are absolutely awful:

Interpretation A:

He thinks Locke is confirmed town. Yet, for some mysterious, arcane reason, he did not say “trying to undermine someone who is confirmed town is scummy”, but instead, “Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.” Not only that, but he ALSO didn’t clarify that he thinks Locke is confirmed town the second go-around, when I asked him about it. If he believes LL is confirmed town, then

he himself

is undermining him, by keeping him read of LL-confirmed town wrapped up as a secret. This is nonsensical, which suggests...

Interpretation B:

He thinks Locke is either town or third party. Think about this one. He thinks that LL is likely confirmed town, but could be a third party - exactly the position we’ve expressed in thread. And yet, we are “scummy” for it. In what world does this make sense? In what world is it scummy to point out that a pseudo-confirmed town might actually be third party when

you yourself

think he might actually be third party??

And it gets even worse. Regardless of whether we’re in case A or B, his answer is terrible. But as a townie, he should have at least committed to an answer. Why not? Surely, if you have a confirmed town read, you’d want to say it (especially if you think undermining this confirmed town is scummy.) Surely, if you think someone has a risk of being third party, you’d want to say it. But Zdenek was extremely careful to say *neither*. Why?

Because we caught him with his hand in the cookie jar. In his haste to paint every little thing we do as scummy, he forgot to fully think his fake positions through. Now, we’ve said, “are you eating COOKIES, mister?” and he’s decided to shove the cookies straight in his mouth and hope we don’t ask him to open it. A townie has zero reason not to clarify; a scumbag has every reason to hope we’ll let the issue lie.

More incoming...

[Twilight Sparkle]

Point Two: Zdenek’s inconsistency on MoI’s interactions with me

Actually, Mina and hito are in disagreement as to which point is the crown jewel.  This is what I (Mina) was referring to when I’d said someone was confirmed scum.  Looking back, I took ONE thing out of context that could allow for Zdenek-town, but he still looks all kinds of nasty.

For the next section, I’ll keep track of post numbers and links as well as quotes.  The timing of Zdenek’s posts in relation to what’s going on in the thread at the time is as damning as the posts themselves.

Sotty already mentioned the huge discrepancy between Zdenek raising us D1 (during which he strongly doubted TS was scum and voting us D2.  Reads change, sure, but most of his issues with us are from D1.  Why didn’t he comment on any of this at the time?

At the beginning of D2, Zdenek says this:

I agree with MoI that Twilight Sparkle's use of soft accusations against him is scummy.

Later on, when called on his lack of substantiation behind his TS vote beyond "I agree with MoI/Benmage/Magua," his reasoning includes the following:

To me, Twilight's accusation reads as an attempt to drive wedge between Benmage and MoI who's co-operation could be strongly pro-town.

So Zdenek found Twilight’s D1 interactions with Benmage and MoI scummy? Because they were trying to keep two town heroes apart?

There’s only one problem:

Exhibit A: Some posts that could be interpreted as "soft accusations" of Magna (although they were genuine) or questioning his Benmage Raise: Post 87, Post 341, Post 460, Post 516, Post 588, Post 793.

Exhibit B: Post, Zdenek

agrees

with our read on Magna

Exhibit C: Post 346, Zdenek says his read of Benmage has weakened, and

raises

Sparkle.

Zdenek never mentions MagnaofIllusion or Twilight Sparkle afterward beyond moving his raise to Benmage for "liking his observation" (what observation?).

Exhibit D: Post 758, Zdenek’s last post of D1 with actual content. Post 799, Zdenek’s last post of the day.

The only post of ours he MIGHT have missed was 793, if he rushed out on his V/LA.

Busted.

Why didn’t you have a problem with our breaking up Magna’s and Benmage’s protown union BEFORE you’d raised us?  Why didn’t you dislike our "soft accusations" of Magna before then?

This implies that his claim to have suspected us for softly attacking Magna and for interrupting the MoI-Benmage lovefest were disingenuous.  Zdenek doesn’t believe in his own cases.  Why did his opinion change? On D1, we were a leading raise wagon, and on D2, we were a leading lynch wagon.

HOWEVER...I am deliberately omitting certain events from the chronology that weaken my catch.  Why?  Not to make our case look more impressive.  Because before I give Zdenek an out, I’d like him to answer this:

-Did you find TS’s "soft accusations" and probing of MoI’s Raise on Benmage suspicious at the time?  Why didn’t you mention it?
-Do you think both Magna and Benmage are town?
-Was there ever a point during D1 when you found Magna townish?  When and why did your read change?
-Was there ever a point during D1 when you found us scummy?  When and why did your read change?

I want you to walk us through your entire thought process and explain how you went from "Everyone is raising TS! Raise them!" to "Everyone is voting TS! Vote them!"  No, not just a laundry list of complaints. How exactly your read evolved.

Point Three: Sheepy play and safe, convenient stances

In Zdenek’s eighteen posts, he goes with the flow and rarely follows through on his early-game suspicions.  It’s hard to tell which of his contributions are more original than others purely from his ISO, but aside from his TS case sheeping, he parrots me on MagnaofIllusion and Magua on diddin.

As mentioned in Point 3, Zdenek followed the tide with his Raise and vote on Twilight Sparkle. On D2, he flip-flops and agrees with MoI’s TS case, but doesn’t vote.  Doesn’t follow up on any of the players he’d attacked on D1 (Kast, MoI, BL, GreyICE/DTM).  He makes superficial comments on four players.  For example, he attacks Magua, who he’d previously said was unlikely to be Stark, for his stance on Cow’s posting restriction from pages ago.  Still no vote.

Then, only after TS becomes the largest wagon, he sheeps MoI, Ben and Magua (remember, MoI and Magua were scumreads of his before).  Remember, this was before Magna’s big TS case summarizing his suspicions.  Without saying which arguments in particular he likes, he places his vote:

I find the arguments by Magua, benmage and MoI against Twilight Sparkle to be the most convincing ones so far, and I agree with them. I also strongly dislike Thor's play for reasons that have been pointed out by others (not reading the thread, not scum hunting), so

Vote Twilight Sparkle
Nominate Thor

No one has a problem with this at all?

At this point, TS and Thor are both the leading wagons, so this is a safe position.

I find it a scumtell when someone who's hesitant to vote only does so to put someone who's already getting lots of votes.  In general, more reckless players tend to be aggressive bandwagoners, while more cautious ones are often afraid to cast a vote on someone who’s in more danger of a lynch.

His own points are usually inane, and couched in general, wishy-washy language.  Examples:

do we agree that popping governor immediately on a target no one wants lynched is the way to go?

I am undecided, but my impulse is to give it Benmage and see what he does with it. I have to think more about this game though.

As far as the hascow business is concerned, I don't feel that it would be a good day one lynch for strategic reasons, much like any policy lynch.

I like Benmage's observation and my reads on some people are changing, so Unraise Twilight Sparkle
Raise Benmage.

Only when we call him on sheeping does he defend his vote with his own rather spurious reasons.  Which leads us to...

[Twilight Sparkle]

Point Four: Tilting at Windmills

These are, I freely admit, less damning as scumtells. I place them here because, together with the other evidence, they suggest the overarching theme that Zdenek is simply trying to find as many “points" to raise as possible. They are seriously vacuous, and in some cases downright moronic. Having a bad justification isn’t a scumtell per se; but when you apparently deemed raising these trivial, frivolous points as the most important use of catch-up time, it suggest that you’re simply ISOing us, looking for anything you can twist as scummy, and going, without taking time to consider if it’s actually scummy or worth mention.

Hey, remember when I said “downright moronic"?

First of all, I see that there is an inconsistency in how TS wants to treat almost confirmed town players: hascow and LL.

Let us review why these almost confirmed town players are such:

Locke Lamora: zoraster’s flip has virtually confirmed him to be Gregor Clegane. Gregor Clegane is in the employ of the Lannisters. However, he is also known for being only loosely controlled and killing hundreds of people unnecessarily...killing them

serially

, if you will. We don’t know how all of the kills last night went down. Thus, we suggested that the town keenly watch for evidence that there is a serial killer at night, and to consider that LL could fit in that slot.

cow: Cow claimed Illyn Payne, a completely loyal envoy of the Lannisters who is a logical dayvig. People asked if he was a dayvig. Then, he dayvigged. The only way he could be a SK is as a daykilling post-restricted SK. This is extremely unlikely, and in the small event it is true, it will be much more apparent later (night kills are ambiguous; daykills are clearly linked to cow.)

So yes, there are inconsistent views, because one is confirmed as Gregor Clegane, and one is confirmed as

the dayvig.

I find it hard to believe that, in the time you spent typing that, you failed to recognize the difference.

As far as lack of scum hunting goes. Twilight has been guilty of wasting time trying to figure out hascow's post restriction, arguing about policy lynching, talking about Hascow's post restriction, posting pictures, appeals to emotion about the state of the hydra.

Let’s break it down:

Twilight has been guilty of wasting time trying to figure out hascow's post restriction,

Trying to see what our  restricted player can say is certainly not a waste of time.

And obviously, you didn’t think so either.

If you think hasdgfas is scummy (DGB), that's fine. Concentrating solely on the technical points of his post restriction (danakillsu) is useless.

I disagree with this. If we can figure out the technical points of his post restriction, then we can determine when/if he's broken it, and if there are no repercussions, then we know he's faking it.

Though I suppose I never did mention why I asked if he could dance. By the range of actions he exhibited previously, it was obvious that he could dance, but if he was faking his PR he might say no just because he can. He gave the right answer, and when the dayvig actually came it made the whole debate moot.

arguing about policy lynching

Was it a waste when Benmage did so?

talking about Hascow's post restriction,

You really wanted this list as long as possible, didn’t you?

posting pictures,

oh ho ho, this one I gotta hear. I have never, ever posted a picture and only a picture. I use them to show my mood to certain posts in a more memorable way. What exactly are you saying here? Is posting pictures a scumtell? Is time being wasted because I post pictures?

appeals to emotion about the state of the hydra.

This one I’ll give you. As it happens, we’re just mad, but there’s no way to know that and so assuming you think AtE is a scumtell (I don’t personally) it’s worth bringing up.

Let’s also review a certain exchange.

Zdenek asks us to explain this post:

Beyond that, I suspect to find at least one scum in kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin.

We do:

Just saying that they're my second-tier scumreads.

First tier is dana and {Thor, Raivann}.

Second tier is kast/lmp/nexus/mikujin. Those are players without too much content/hard to read/gut pings. I'm not willing to call "you're scum" on any of them, but I expect that at least one of the four is going to end up scum and I'm keeping an alert eye as to which one.

It makes more sense if you read the whole ISO specatuclar.

and he responds:

I asked  because I wanted to see if you were also suggesting that there is a connection between these players. Your phrasing of: I expect to find one scum in these four, when there is no connection between the players bothers me. It feels like you cared more about making a post that sounded as though you were scum hunting hard, rather than one that properly conveyed what you wanted to say.

This jab makes no sense.  hito was PRETENDING to look like he was scumhunting, so he mistakenly worded his post ambiguously

because he was so distracted by fake-scumhunting.

 Whereas, had he

really

been scumhunting, Zdenek would have

never

misinterpreted hito’s post, because, um...explain this?

I suspect Zdenek planned to attack us for a weak connections case, but had to change his tune when hito answered differently.

Point Five: Inconsistency regarding Danakillsu

This one is short and sweet.

Dana:

I see very little scum hunting in Danakillsu's posts. Early in the day, he was guilty of posting pro-town fluff:

raise: DGB For pointing out how stupid it is to self-raise. We all get that you want to tell us you're town and you trust yourself. It doesn't even need to be stated. Now start trying to play the actual game.

Wrong. You are not keeping anything from happening by raising yourself. If we wanted to raise somebody else, we could do so whether you were raising yourself, someone else, or no one. Your job in this game is to convince other people that certain players are town or scum, and a raise of yourself because "you trust yourself and nobody else" doesn't help anyone. Let me put it this way: Do you lynch vote exclusively to see the person you vote for lynched?

I also don't think that he was being honest about his awareness of the statistics of self-raising from the last game. I also feel that he wasted a lot of time talking about self-raising and hascow's post restrictions rather than scum hunting. Additionally, there his jumping at the chance to vote for xvart based on GreyICE's incorrect reading of his posts.

danakillsu

The most interesting thing is the dana<--->mijukin interaction. He's been voting for mijukin for most of the game (in one memorable occasion, voting for mijukin while he was already voting for mijukin.)

His vote for him today was framed thusly:

I had this read yesterday, I still have it today. Vote: Mikujin

"I had this read yesterday" doesn't sit at all well with me. Scum are oftentimes over-focused on consistency over anything else, and that seems awfully much like "hey guys, look, I didn't change my mind." A mijukin townflip casts a serious shadow on dana.

Zdenek responds to our point on danakillsu thusly:

Or it's a townie with a static read from one day to the next. I don't see how a Mikujin town flip could cast doubt on Dana, and view this as a poor attack on Dana.

He’s extremely quick to about-face on Dana when doing so gives him another “point" to push on. Was his push on Mikujin scumhunting or no?

[Twilight Sparkle]

So, in conclusion, zdenek:

Unvote, Vote: zdenek

Unominate, Nominate: Thor665

The preceding posts have been a hito and Mina production. Tickets are non-refundable.

[Twilight Sparkle]

PS. That was the 2.) Mina was referring to, in case there was ambiguity.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Nothing about MoI here because Mina is still finishing the response to him.

We think Thor has a very large chance of flipping scum, we think Raivann has a fairly large chance of flipping scum, and a scumflip on one virtually confirms the other as town. There's no contradiction here.

**Why is one flipping scum confirming the other town?

Raivann's attack on ASoIaF/Thor make extremely little sense as a bus. It's possible - hence 'virtually' confirms - but extremely unlikely. Remember, this came before LMP claimed the chesskid shot. If there are multiple scumteams, then change this to "aren't same faction scum."

Why would you ever kill a player softclaiming Twyin Lannister???

You advocate for Chess to be vigged here, well after his softclaiming of Twyin and softclaiming PR. Am I missing a subsequent change of position somewhere?

So I named all the scum, and call town immune... and that has a negative effect on the game?

Yes. It becomes obvious to scum that they must either pursue a mislynch on your list, or bus a scummate. Tomorrow, it will be easier to slip to a mislynch off of your list (“Why didn’t I go after this person yesterday? Why Ben, old chap, they were off your list!”). Basically, you’re telling the scum who the allowable mislynches are and lowering the accountability players will have to have for the actions; not really a good thing even IF it’s accurate.

(It’s worth noting that, if the scum have daytalk, your actions aren’t nearly as bad - part of the problem with your list is that you’re essentially giving the scum a plan for how to act, but if they’re talking anyway this isn’t a problem. Given the wording of Envoy to the Eyrie, though, I’d be fairly surprised if the scum could daytalk.)

--

@LMP:

We’re your third biggest scum read. How much of it is associative with Feysal?

--

Where am I a scumread of Zdenek's?

In all fairness, he does say you’re unlikely to be Stark, but his second post of D2 implicitly treats aspects of your play as scummy::

Magua

Because I am leery of people who say "Policy lynching a VI D1 is the smart move" when there's more than one VI.

Why does the presence of more than VI make a difference?

$10 says Hasdgfas is faking his post restriction. It's cute, but it's also nonsensical from a setup POV. Undecided on scumminess; not enough information yet. Nulltell.

LL called him out this already, but I'd like to draw attention to it again. He thinks that someone is faking a post-restriction but calls it a null-tell, which I think is nonsensical.

Ghostlin: why didn't you have a problem with Magua's 962?

(In my somewhat biased opinion, this is a pure scum post--picking out a couple of superficial details that have no relevance to anyone’s alignment, and then failing to reach a conclusion on them--but moving on.)

But thank you for asking me this. Because now I just noticed this:

Magua’s 962.

Did I miss any controversy over this post? To break it down, Magua:
-retroactively believes zoraster’s flavour, calls Cow and Locke confirmed town
-argues Raivann is highly unlikely Stark, and MoI/Zdenek/xvart are less likely Stark.
-speculates on the diddin NK.
-votes Twilight Sparkle.

Considering Zdenek’s only other comment on Magua had to do with Cow’s post restriction, this is a useless fake-scumhunting question. Even if Zdenek singled out Ghostlin because Ghostlin agreed with Magua’s post on Raivann...was that the most noteworthy thing to mention in his only catch-up post?

But furthermore, this is Zdenek’s first post of the day:

I strongly doubt that Magua is Stark because of his push on diddin yesterday.

I am willing to accept that because of the flavour that LL is cleared (my own knowledge of flavour is minimal, so I really am trusting others here)

I agree with MoI that Twilight Sparkle's use of soft accusations against him is scummy.

In other words...he asks Ghostlin why he agrees with every point of Magua’s in 926?

Yeah. Still happy with this vote.

-hito/Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Stray thought as I leave: Kast has been really lurky as well but hasn't been mentioned by anyone. If there is only one scum team he is likely a member.

Sotty - I don't understand the logic behind the certainty of being on a single scum team compared to multiple scum teams.

It was just a I thought I had since I believed there was scum pushing us at the time for what can be boiled down to lurking for the most part. Kast on the other hand has lurked and is known as a good player and yet got exactly zero flack his way. I found it extremely strange and disproportional.

If there is one scum team and Kast is a member, they wouldn't want to draw any unneeded heat his way. If the town are ignoring him, they would too. This could work with more than one scum team, but I think the tell is significantly weaker IMO. Pushing lurkers, is good busy work for scum because it is a protown action that townies should be doing. However it shouldn't (and in my opinion doesn't) reflect on the alignment of the player who is calling out the lurkers.

This is just a flyby answering a question directed at me. We're currently working on a bigger post together that should be up soonish.

~Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

The obvious self-preservation vote for TS is on Feysal. If TS plans to not do this, please say so and explain. If you plan to do this, then let's see some action.

Our case on Zdenek is getting curiously little attention. Ben mentioned he didn’t want to read it, and then commented on things past it. Ben, are you seriously saying that you didn’t read the post, even while you’re voting for us? Or did you not find a single thing worth commenting on on?

Kast, your complete lack of mention of the case is odd, particularly since at the beginning of the day, Zdenek was his second suspect after dana. He said he likes Zdenek’s D2 posts more than D1. We disagree pretty profoundly. Did you find nothing of note in our Zdenek case? What makes Feysal so much more compelling?

Raivann, anything to say about the Zdenek case? You seem awfully happy to sit on your unlynchable laurels without contributing. “Still happy with my Twilight vote” isn’t going to cut it. We’ve got a little less than four days until deadline. I’m not going to accept dull, “lol sheep end day without saying anything.”

We'd prefer a Zdenek lynch to Feysal. We'll obviously lynch Feysal at deadline if needed.

More coming soon. We're working on some giant walls in google docs. A nice cure to hydra schizophrenia, but with three people nitpicking it does take some time to roll out.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Giant Wall Contents

(ctrl+f to search a specific point if you're looking for just that)

[TS01 - Points against Zdenek]
[TS02 – Response to MoI]
[TS03 - Response to xvart]
[TS04 - Response to LynchMePls]
[TS05 - Thoughts re: Feysal]
[TS06 - Thoughts re: Magua]
[TS07 - A public service announcement]

[TS01]

Points Against/Response To Zdenek

So first of all, I kind of goofed in this post.:

In other words...he asks Ghostlin why he agrees with every point of Magua’s in 926?

I left out a sentence.  Zdenek asks Ghostlin why he doesn’t “have a problem" with Magua‘s 926.  Aside from that question being pure fluff (Magua’s 926 wasn’t particularly noteworthy) and his singling out of Ghostlin rather WTF, I’ll compare Magua’s 926 and Zdenek’s first quote of the day:

Flavor says that Zoraster wasn't bluffing at the end.

hasdgfas and Locke are confirmed town, as far as I'm concerned.
Shadow remains a strong town read.
GreyICE was a townread, but DTMaster, meh, not so much at this point.

I highly doubt Raivann is Stark. diddin rode her lynch over Zoraster's for a long time (till one hour before lynch, as it turns out). I could see him jumping onto a buddy's wagon at the end, but not jumping from a buddy's wagon if it was obvious someone else was going to be lynched.

Actually, looking at the wagon on diddin yesterday, I am disinclined to believe that any of Raivann, MagnaofIllusion, xvart, or Zdenek are Stark.

So:

VOTE: Twilight Sparkle
Nominate: Mikujin

I strongly doubt that Magua is Stark because of his push on diddin yesterday.

I am willing to accept that because of the flavour that LL is cleared (my own knowledge of flavour is minimal, so I really am trusting others here)

I agree with MoI that Twilight Sparkle's use of soft accusations against him is scummy.
MoI, since Zoraster's flip, what are your opinions of Nexus and Dana?

I would guess that Bunnylover isn't Stark because of diddin's attack on her yesterday.

He doesn’t exactly sheep Magua, but those opinions are fairly similar to those espoused in 926.  And then asks Ghostlin why he

didn’t

have a problem with that post.

Zdenek, explanation, please.

Hey, Ghostlin, you’ve had quite a bit of back-and-forth with Zdenek today on Raivann, but I don’t think you’ve shared many concrete opinions.  Even your vote is languishing.  Well, what do you think of Zdenek?  Scum?  Town?  Would you consider voting him today?

Point One: Inconsistency re: LL, but more importantly, his sidestepping around whether he could consider LL to be third party.

Just because you say something, doesn't make it true. I have never sidestepped on this issue. Here is what I've said about LL:

I am willing to accept that because of the flavour that LL is cleared (my own knowledge of flavour is minimal, so I really am trusting others here)

I don't think that he's scum.

It's precisely because my read on Locke is due to other's knowledge of the flavour that I said

Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.

All of TS's point one is poor logic and rhetoric.

Okay, so let me get this straight.

You cleared LL with no ASoIaF knowledge, completely trusting other players. I posted a point that, no, he’s not confirmed - he could be an SK, if the evidence for one pops up. And your response is to call me scum because - while you’re completely giving up on reading LL - you’re still going to attack me for a contrary read to OTHER PEOPLE? I’ve admittedly never been in the situation of relying on someone else for a flavor clear, but I simply can’t imagine saying, “There are two different sides to whether this person is flavor-cleared. I know nothing about the flavor - but THAT SIDE IS STILL THE SCUMMY SIDE!"

Surely, when you say you’re trusting others on the flavor-clear, you would

especially

want any information that someone might not be cleared town?

TS, why did you wait to share your argument that LL could be a serial killer in your case against me rather than arguing with people who think that LL is confirmed town?

I did. I argued with those people in my ISO Spectacular, when I hit LL. Here is exactly what I said:

Mostly-confirmed town now; highly doubt Gregor is anything but a Lannister. I could, however, see him as a sk (I don't have my books with me atm, lent them to a friend, but I remember Twyin saying something about him as a dog in his service that he doesn't associate with house Lannister...someone with the books please confirm/deny). But sk hunting is something to save for when we have more night actions/flips to work with. Right now we're scumhunting, and LL ain't Stark.

Then (as in, AFTER that), you responded that-

Trying to undermine someone who most people are perceiving as almost confirmed town is scummy.

THIS is my problem. You called us scummy for pointing out blind-spots in a flavor-clear (blind spots that you should be particularly interested in hearing), and when pressed you still refused to commit to whether or not you think LL could or could not be an sk. You were desperate to paint us as scummy, to the point that you reached somewhere that a townie shouldn’t reach.

Now,  I will be honest.  Zdenek’s defence to our point 2 and explanation of how his reads evolved on D1 was actually quite reasonable. One of the things I was withholding from my chronology was that although Sotty had already mentioned disliking MoI’s Raise of Benmage (which was why I originally thought he was caught scum) before Zdenek Raised us, Sotty did have one big post further attacking his Raise that MoI rebutted before Zdenek moved his Raise.  I wanted to see if Zdenek would mention that post as a reason for his change in opinions.  But I’d missed that the “observation" he’d referred to re: Benmage was that TS should have requested the governor.  (On a side note, it had occurred to us to self-raise, but felt kind of arrogant...and anyway, since we were advocating that the governor blow his shot, it didn’t really matter to us.)

Just one thing.  Zdenek, are you saying that when you saw Sotty’s post attacking MoI’s raise, you actually thought for yourself, “Gee, Sotty is making MoI look bad with soft attacks"?  That was your personal thought process?

Point Five: Inconsistency regarding Danakillsu

There is no inconsistency; I was attacking your logic.

Okaaaaay...so, your stance on danakillsu is: he’s not scumhunting, but if the person he tunneled on day one (when he “wasn’t scumhunting") flips town, you can’t see how that would reflect negatively on dana? Have I got that straight?

[Twilight Sparkle]

[TS02]

Response to MoI

So guys. I will spend tonight on a monster case. Unfortunately, I'll only have time for one subject:

1) The player with whom I have reservations the size of a small continent and whose every post raises yet another alarm bell, simply because a couple of the arguments he's pushing are so ridiculous that I'm shocked he could genuinely believe them as town, but who wouldn't be my top choice for a lynch this early on.

2) The player who has virtually claimed scum.

So you went with 2.  Why do I think that 1 is a more experienced player who you don’t want to antagonize since you are under fire?  Well, let me see ...

No.

The obvious move is to first make the case on the player who is more objectively scummy, we find more deserving of a vote, we don’t consistently change our mind on, and isn’t on Benmage’s insta-governor list.  On a case that takes hours of collaborative work, it makes more sense to get to the important stuff first and leave my reservations on a player getting no heat whatsoever for later.

Also, writing 1 is like tearing my fingernails off, one at a time, because a certain quote of Kast’s is accurate.

But 1 wasn't someone I'm afraid to antagonize and turn against me.

Number 1 was

you

.

And you want to know why?

My (Mina’s) views on the two Mags have been the exact opposite of Sotty's.  MagUa seemed to have suspected us from the beginning of D1, and I saw where he was coming from re: his view that our vote was somewhat languishing during the beginning of the day.  Furthermore, his feeling better about Thor because we weren't on the wagon shows that at the very least, he has a consistent view of the game.  Your attacks on us, on the other hand, felt more as though you were capitalizing on Magua’s and Ben’s objections with us and trying to get a potential threat lynched early.  I also think your “soft attacks" argument was bullshit used to justify turning every objection to your play around on us (hence why I’m so sceptical of Zdenek thinking that was the SELLING point for him on the Twilight Sparkle).  Example:

I didn’t address it because quite honestly I didn’t even see it since you followed so quickly on the heels another Twilight post. In looking at that post are taking the soft tactic that I’ve noticed Sotty-head also taking – swiping at me with accusations that are meant to undermine but not outright directly call scummy. That’s a scum tactic – I should know I used it on Benmage in Clash myself (and he rightfully called me on it but didn’t really pursue it). I obviously disagree with your conclusions as I did with GreyICE. The difference is that he kept throwing crap any which way while you said nothing further.

@Twilight Mina (when you get back) - Why did you let that slide for 700 or so posts before bringing it up again?

But back to your earlier assertion – you intimate that GreyICE is an easy target. Did you find him to be a VI? Are you attempting to say I wouldn’t attack your slot for scummy-behavior simply because of it’s make-up of Hito, you and Sotty?

(FTR, it was because that was the first time I--as in Mina--got around to posting in this game other than that one fluff post to Magua.  I think I’d mentioned something along those lines on AIM, but it didn’t make it into hito’s catch-up post. Decided to remind you of it before my trip.  Re: GreyICE, remember this was before his flip in BotW, and I’d thought overaggressive emotional play from him was a towntell.  I don’t know if I’d outright call him a VI--but yes, he had a controversial playstyle, was a total paranoid lunatic, and was disliked by most people.  

If you are scum

, I’d expect you to prefer attacking the player whose play is “wackier" than someone who’d likely be a hard lynch (well, we were SUPPOSED to be a hard lynch <_<).)

But you never answered my initial question about why you wasted your time talking about the wonderful stuff you COULD have done with raising statistics.  Instead, you retroactively decided that my question had been a soft attack, because

Sotty

had done something you thought was a soft attack.

But I almost let it slide because many of your posts from D1 looked very, very protown.  And I did feel somewhat better about you when you explained the evolution of your TS suspicions. Besides, people are naturally more paranoid about attacks against themselves, so I could sort of see your POV on the Sotty thing (in her defence, however, her experiences with Benmage have been much less positive than yours).

Also, your attacks on GreyICE here were a niggling doubt in my mind on D2-3 of Brotherhood of the Wolf.  So sure enough, when he flipped scum there, it made me think your suspicions of him in this game were genuine--a huge point in your favour if there’s a single scumteam.

But that’s it.  At this point, you have stopped believing in what you’re arguing.  And I can prove it:

I'm not sure if I should be combing through ISOs looking for connections to diddin, or answering every single point that anyone has made against us.

If you were Town you know the answer and showed that you do in Clash – you would be scum-hunting. I absolutely refused to give you the “Mina is waffling" pass. You are too good a player to get away with it any longer here on MS.

(I’m not sure what “waffling" has to do with it, and I was never in this much danger of a lynch during Clash, but moving on....)

I don’t see any of my concerns about your slot being addressed. Just a large post that says – LOOK OVER HERE!!! HE’S SCUMMY FOR X,Y,Z! DON’T PAY ATTENTION TO THE FACT I AM GUILTY OF THE SAME CRIMES!!!

So which is it?  You want us to avoid defending ourselves and just scumhunt?  Or do you want us to concentrate all our energy into “addressing your concerns"? (As a side note, I love the arrogance implicit in “Stop playing the game and address more of MY concerns!")

I think Twilight Sparkle has answered most of the points against us.  If there's anything in particular you think would affect your read for us to address, please point it out.  (I think there's one about my read on Thor I didn't answer--I missed his comment on holding stronger players to higher expectations.)

But at this point, most people have made up their minds on us.  Constantly defending ourselves is draining, and our energy is better served moving on and looking at the other players in the game. I mean...wasn't the major concern with our slot that we weren’t scumhunting enough?

You’ve completely stopped trying to figure out our alignment--which makes no sense for a case based in large part (yes, I know there are other issues) on inactivity during a period when the hydra was at reduced strength.  Now you’re just trying to score easy points.  Ha ha.  We put a response in spoiler quotes for readability, and you missed it.  How antitown of us. *tsk*  Or just look at this kind of bullshit:

Magna, I would really like for you to answer this yourself. Because you seem to be implying that our comment was scummy. Do you think there's a problem with the underlying assumption behind it--at least before LynchMePls' claim?

Now it is important for someone to answer the question put to them without interference?

Ooh.  What a clever jab.  We unwittingly disarmed LMP’s trap by correcting his goof on the kill flavour because we aren’t mind-readers who knew he’d seen a potential slip from Feysal.  Therefore aren’t we being so hypocritical for politely asking you to answer something “yourself"?  You have totally proven that we are scum with your catty dig.

For the record, I was trying to trap you by getting you to say you found us scummy for assuming there was a single scumteam, when you’d suggested the same theory earlier on.  You didn’t fall for it.  But when the only thing you have to say to several big posts are one-liners like “haha, you should have remembered that one of Raivann and Thor can still be third party, but since you didn’t explicitly mention it, that’s scummy," then you’ve gone beyond scumhunting into point-scoring.

=========================================

I’ve read it and just want to be sure we are on the same page.

Points 1, 2 and 5 are all the same point – Zdenek is being inconsistent and thus scummy.
Point 3 – Making safe, convenient stances is scummy.

There was actually some debate as to how to order/categorize/label the points--even using the word “inconsistencies" in all three headings was a bit arbitrary--but no, they are

not

all the same.

If you summarize 3/5ths of our case under the headline of "inconsistency", sure.  But our posts are not as amenable to one-sentence description as you seem to think they are.

For example, our first point is not just "inconsistency." It is that Zdenek is calling us scummy for holding an opinion on Locke that he, logically, must hold. When we pointed out this contradiction, he chose an answer that

specifically

didn't address whether or not he shared our thoughts on LL. Throwing this under the banner of inconsistency doesn’t do it justice.

Also, inconsistencies aside, on a pure gut level, he's just

scummy

.  Not scummy as in a weak player, scummy as in

scummy

. Just look at that “catching up" post in which he makes a bunch of useless fluff comments like his weak attack on Magua and question to Ghostlin.

Your slot is guilty of exactly those same offenses in Points 1-3, 5 as Zdenek is.

Inconsistency – I’ve pointed out this in my case regarding my slot. Others have pointed out how Hito’s “Iso Extraveganza" has players with Town reads being listed in second tier suspects.

I (hito) already addressed why Nexus had a townie mention in ISO but was included in my scumlist in ISO 47.

But furthermore, how the fuck does our being accused of an "inconsistency" mean that we're not allowed to point out WORSE inconsistencies from Zdenek?  How does our having some stances you find safe nullify Zdenek’s overall pattern of behaviour?  Even if the likelihood of multiple scumteams didn’t mean that we could be scum and still notice genuine scummy behaviour from Zdenek, ad hominems are Logical Fallacies 101.   Zdenek can be inconsistent and scummy even if the three heads of Twilight Sparkle pointing this out aren’t 100% consistent.

I’m not sure what exactly you are saying in Point 4 but I don’t see the scumminess there.

Try reading it, then:

These are, I freely admit, less damning as scumtells. I place them here because, together with the other evidence, they suggest the overarching theme that Zdenek is simply trying to find as many “points" to raise as possible. They are seriously vacuous, and in some cases downright moronic. Having a bad justification isn’t a scumtell per se; but when you apparently deemed raising these trivial, frivolous points as the most important use of catch-up time, it suggest that you’re simply ISOing us, looking for anything you can twist as scummy, and going, without taking time to consider if it’s actually scummy or worth mention.

That catch-up post is exactly what I would expect to see from competent scum under fire for lack of Pro-Town play – a well-reasoned case against a player who isn’t likely to competently fire back.

I’m interested in your quote, “a well-reasoned" case on Zdenek. You haven’t really said whether our case is good or bad at all. Instead, your points seem to amount to, in essence, that we’re not

allowed

to make this case on Zdenek. You also say that it’s against a player who “isn’t likely to competently fire back". Seeing as Zdenek is, by your own admission, “far from a VI", I’m curious as to what this means.

Also: a well reasoned case against scum seems exactly what the doctor ordered, and whether or not someone can fire back is independent of their alignment. If this is what the

scum

reaction is, then what do you think competent

town

would do in this situation?

If you thought our case on Zdenek was weak, then why didn’t you argue with the specific instances of scummy behaviour we called attention to themselves, the way Kast did?  (We’ll respond to his later post when we have time.)  Instead, you’re trying to trivialize the specific instances of questionable behaviour we found from Zdenek by lumping them into categories such as "inconsistencies" or "safe stances", and then imply that suspicious behaviour falling into those categories is off-limits to us.

So what do

you

personally think of Zdenek?  Had that case not been made by people whose opinions should be invalidated because (gasp) hito found one post vaguely townish from a player in his second tier, would you have agreed with our points against him?

===============
By the way, Magna, what is your read on Nexus?  At the beginning of the day, he was one of your top four suspects, but you’ve spent comparatively little energy attacking him.

Oh, and also, WHY THE FUCK did you feel the need to post this:

No, they didn’t. Because you obviously didn’t investigate them as you had the same ‘rock-solid’ Town read on that slot before Night 1.

Stop drinking the gambit juice. Too many players who are Obv-Town at this point. You aren’t going to manufacture a NK draw …

-80% Mina, 20% hito

(Note that this section was started days before the other parts of this wall,but underwent constant revision and so was only posted now.)

[Twilight Sparkle]

[TS03]

Response to Xvart

@LMP: We’re your third biggest scum read. How much of it is associative with Feysal?

Woah. I really don't like this quote. At all. Fishing out relations with other players? Have to think on this some more.

I don’t think LMP said anything negative about us (he even asked what the case on Twilight Sparkle was) until hito corrected him on the kill flavour.  So it seemed as though we were one of his top suspects solely because we could be Feysal’s scumbuddy for answering a question directed at him.

Also, what do you mean by “fishing out relations with other players"?

I think Setael's 1327 push on Bunnylover is weak and forced, looking only at mannerism and not content. And the follow up discussion about VI/number of games played is just bad. Nitpicking trivial stuff while not voting. If BunnyLover flips scum I'd bet Setael is scum too..

Hrmm? You’re attacking Setael for pushing BL without voting? But in the same post:

But it gives you the perfect opportunity to throw in a (weak) bus since it won't go anywhere or do anything because of Benmage's declaration.

This is to Setael, regarding Bunnylover. You clearly know that BL is on the “no-lynch" list. But then, what of your previous quotes? Nitpicking trivial stuff without voting? Do you think Setael should be voting Bunnylover right now?

[TS04]

Response to LynchMePls

This. Plus, my experience with Zdenek is that he's mislynch bait. Every game I've been in with him (2 that I can think of off the top of my head plus 1 I modded) he was mislynched by the town. The fact that the case came out of left field when TS was being run up makes me feel pretty confident that it's a red herring.

I’ve never played with Zdenek before.  Do you have town and scum meta on him, for comparison’s sake?

@MoI (who earlier said Zdenek was far from a VI): do you agree with LMP’s assessment of Zdenek’s meta?

The case certainly didn’t come out of left field.   I’d said in my (Mina)’s second post after returning from my V/LA that I wanted to devote a huge post to Zdenek, and we’d already mentioned objections with him.  Some of it was DGB’s logic that knowing we’re town, there should be at least one scum on our wagon.  Zdenek’s vote struck us as the most blatant case-free bandwagoning (since at least Raivann had set, and was unlikely to be a Stark given only one scumteam).   We decided to take a closer look at him, and then more stuff jumped out at us.  But the case itself was cowritten in Google docs by hito and I during an all-nighter AIM session, and ended up growing beyond what we’d expected.

[Twilight Sparkle]

[TS05]

Thoughts on Feysal

On Feysal, we’re finding his early play pretty scummy.  He flutters around the use of the Governor, saying he wants a strong townie player to have the power and use it if needed. (Post 282) Yet in post 325 he commends Xtoxm for his suggestion of throwing the power away “despite not agreeing with him." Unlike LMP, we’re not sold on this being a Stark connection.  (Link me to a game in which you’ve seen similar buddying of someone’s own team mate if you want to convince me.  Am I the only one who thinks scum never actually buddy their

buddies

?  The whole tell is that they either suck up to a townie, get town cred by defending a mislynch, or make them deliberately look bad after a flip.  On the contrary, I find most scum have a phobia of saying anything good about their buddies, particularly unprompted.)  But even now I can’t understand why that would be a good idea to Feysal when he wants the power in play.  It is the complete opposite stance to his own.

Day one is also filled with an early and somewhat strong defense of Cow.  Considering how little we knew about Cow and his powers at the time I don’t really like this.  It feels like a heavy handed attempt to grab at some protown cred upon a possible lynch flip.  Combine this with his early day two defense of Bunnylover and I think there is a pattern here of a player over defending others in situations that don’t really warrant it.  Just feels off in how he goes about it.  Like he knows these are two possible mislynches and wants to take the chance to scold the town and look good in the process.

However, once LMP and MoI start attacking him, Feysal comes into his own and provides a very good defense of himself.  It might be because LMP’s Locke/Zor/DGB tell is pretty weak in my opinion and MoI is attacking him over semantics which

never

ends well.  He comes out of this looking townie, but it’s not quite enough to wipe away all his early play. Still, we definitely are not convinced by LMP’s accusations, nor by his vehemence that anyone (e.g., dana) who finds another player more suspicious than Feysal is suspect. There is certainly some scumminess around Feysal, but it’s far from definitive. (It’s worth noting, though, that LMP’s dedication looks very townie, and it’s likely that he’s telling the truth about being responsible for Chess’s death.)

We still think our Zden case is much better than a possible Feysal lynch, however we are willing to switch our vote should it come to that.
---

[TS06]

Thoughts on Magua

                        
So, after ruminations, I've decided that I don't believe Zdenek is scum. Twilight's case on Zdenek is mostly "Here's a post-by-post analysis, and here's the scummy things I found" without tying it into, eg, actions that were taken and associations with already flipped scum. Rereading Zdenek's D1, I can see the possibility of the bus (unlike with Raivann), but it's far more likely that he's simply not scum.

My preferred lynch is Twilight Sparkle.
UNVOTE: Nexus
VOTE: Twilight Sparkle

I will vote Feysal near deadline to avoid a no lynch if necessary, but I'd rather by far lynch Twilight.

Oh I’ve got so many problems problems with this right here.

I had some reservations with your post - the unpushed vote that sat alone on V/LA Nexus seem pretty much guaranteed not to go anywhere. I got the vibe that, “I expect the other scum to jump off of Twilight, and I want to be first. But I guess I can slide back on if needed." Lo and behold, you’re back - but why, exactly?

Let’s look at the situation in the post where you unvoted:

Other than that, I like the case...

but I'm not convinced by it

. I could buy Zdenek as bussing diddin D1 where I can't buy diddin bussing Raivann. Twilight's suspicion of Zdenek is at least set-up for the last few days. But, I retain suspicion of Twilight Sparkle nonetheless. Call it lingering suspicion.

You’ve put your vote on us, because you don’t believe Zdenek is scum. But you

never did

. Your reasoning for putting your vote back on us makes no sense.

As well, there’s a giant elephant in the room with “tying it to other players" - the Feysal case. You have yet to say what you think of it (you said you didn’t understand it, it was clarified, and you subsequently fell silent.) This would seem to be right up your alley, and yet you’re not voting or nominating Feysal - instead, you’re both voting AND nominating us.

Taken together, these suggest that you do NOT hunt for the most likely scum, but instead vote for the person who least convinced you that someone else is scum. This is quite obviously senseless (and even if this was your criterion, what of the players who’ve pushed no case at all)?

Your hop back on to us seems, to put it charitably, insincere. You don’t think Zdenek is scum. Swell. Why do you think

we’re

scum? And why isn’t Feysal?

[Twilight Sparkle]

[TS07]

A Public Service Announcement

As a final note, a PSA: please, no one ever say, “Your X is noted" ever ever again. It’s the ultimate in passive-aggressive snipes, and it’s a little corrosive to see so much of it in the town. If you wish to accuse someone of, say, an associative case, then

do

so - but more often than not “X is noted" is used in lieu of a real accusation. The implication is that this isn’t actually a point worth pursuing, but it’s enough to heavyhandedly hint at. If you ever find yourself posting “Your X is noted", delete it and instead type it as a scumtell, e.g “Your defense of X seems to suggest that you two are scumbuddies" instead of “Your defense of X is noted." If it makes sense written that way, post it. If it doesn’t, don’t.

The preceding posts were written in google docs by all three of us. It was written over a period over two days (with the exception of the MoI bit, which started Saturday.) Though we’ve all had a chance to look at everything, if you’re curious as to “main authors", it goes something like:

[TS01 - Points against Zdenek] - Hito/Mina
[TS02 - Response to MoI] - Mina
[TS03 - Response to xvart] - Hito
[TS04 - Response to LynchMePls] - Mina
[TS05 - Thoughts re: Feysal] - Sotty/Mina
[TS06 - Thoughts re: Magua] - Hito
[TS07 - A public service announcement] - ALL OF US SERIOUSLY STOP IT STOP IT STOP IT

Please remain in your seats until the wall has come to a complete stop. Thank you for choosing Twilight Sparkle for all of your wallposting needs.

PS. Forgot to add this into the thoughts re: Feysal, but we're very eager to hear his reaction to Setael 1470.

[Twilight Sparkle]

And some personal bits:

Cow, I've got nothing against a Thor vote and you know it. But deadline is awfully soon, and your ISO 54 suggests that you've given serious thought to Feysal and zdenek wagons. Any possibility you can wiggle around your post restriction and give us your insight as to why both of those wagons are inferior to Thor?

Kast, you're working awfully hard to drive us off the zdenek wagon. But I see you called us "wasted voters" while NOT naming anyone else on the zdenek wagon as wasting their vote. Why is that?

[Twilight Sparkle]

I guess the table of contents didn't quite cut it. Magua, we have some outstanding points we'd like you to address.

As for the Feysal claim, we're torn. Technically, it's a very safe claim for scum to make. Voyeur is tailor-made to draw out townclaims (I got a positive result on X...hey town PR, claim! Oh, no town PR claiming? Must've been a scum RB! Do I know who it was? Fuck no!), difficult to confirm absence of, and not terribly useful.

Still, his claim hits all of the right notes in terms of sincerity. It has a definite smell of legitimacy to it. Sadly, deadline is close enough that we probably can't do any better, barring a mass vote exodus to zdenek. At least we lose very little if Feysal is telling the truth - Voyeur is a pretty useless role.

P.EDIT: Raivann, I'll just requote this:

Raivann, anything to say about the Zdenek case? You seem awfully happy to sit on your unlynchable laurels without contributing. “Still happy with my Twilight vote” isn’t going to cut it. We’ve got a little less than four days until deadline. I’m not going to accept dull, “lol sheep end day without saying anything.”

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

To be fair, the current Thor wagon is 100% town . If you think it can be done in 48 hours I'm up for it, but I don't think the odds are good (or to be more precise, I think the only way the wagon is going to get the needed momentum is if Thor is actually town and scum have no reservations voting for him.)

MoI: What do you think of Magua and Raivann's recent votes for us?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

I'm more interested in things like DTMaster, TS, BL, Nexus, and yes still Thor.

Do you have anything of value - anything at all - to say about anyone on this list? Why are we your top scumread? What do you have against Nexus and BL? Why would you vote Feysal just because BL "won't"? Why switch off?

My reason for putting it back on you is the same as it's ever been: you're the one I most want to lynch.

Why?

Your hop back on to us seems, to put it charitably, insincere. You don’t think Zdenek is scum. Swell. Why do you think we’re scum? And why isn’t Feysal?

Do you believe my reasons for starting your wagon were sincere?

Your first vote felt sincere. This one did not.

Alternative question: What do you see as the scum motivation?

Aside from the simple benefit of getting a mislynch? You could be scum with Feysal trying to protect him. You could be trying to buddy to Feysal-town hoping a Rolecop confirms him as Petyr. You could just be opposing a Feysal mislynch because you think it's going through and you want towncred. Plenty of reasons, in short.

Would you be willing to lynch Nexus?

? You mean, now? If we're throwing a hail mary I'd prefer Thor or Raivann.

P-edit:

Everyone is screaming (under the false impression that he was a watcher) "WHY DIDN"T YOU TARGET BENMAGE" when the real question should have been why he didn't target hascow.

A million times, this.

Why? A voyeur wouldn't want to target a likely nk...

Also, Mina and I briefly chatted about the Feysal claim before that post but she forgot/neglected to mention the on-demand scum fakeclaims in ACoK. With that level of on-demand customization, a believable fakeclaim means less than in most games. I'd still rather we lynch Zdenek, but it removes some of my unease at the Feysal wagon.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

I think you're scum and I want you lynched. I think you played a subpar game D1, a subpar game D2 until it looked like you were going to get lynched for it, then busted out the Zdenek case. Although I appreciate the upswing in activity, I still think you're scum.

Okay. Let's recap:

Magua thinks we're scum primarily because a Mina/Sotty/hito hydra should be rocking harder. Mina was on vacation, Sotty was sick, I was busy. Still, we couldn't ask you to clear on our word alone.

The "until it looked like you were going to get lynched for it" is silly. The wagon on us started more or less immediately when D2 did. Yes, our upswing in activity didn't come until after our wagon, but that's not a correlation - that's just because pretty much all of D2 was post-sparkle wagon.

Mina returns, Sotty heals, I get some free time. We start to up our game, get more communication, write some posts. We pick our top scumread and post our thoughts.

You unvote, because it's what you wanted to see from us. We think, hey, great. But your Nexus vote raised some eyebrows, and I said to Mina (paraphrasing) - "Yeah, I'm glad he unvoted, but it kinda looks like he's slinking off our wagon because he thinks it's gonna deflate, while keeping his foot in the door."

Now you're back and playing coy as to why.

You first voted us because "It's D2. Tell me who they think the scum are." Are you still having trouble? Do you think we are lurking *now*? Or is your argument that we had a sub-par D1 so we are now a locked in lynch; with a black mark that can never be expunged?

More importantly, you were happy enough with the Zdenek case when you unvoted. When you revoted, you mentioned that "after ruminations" you no longer thought Zdenek was scum. Guess what - you didn't think Zdenek was scum

when you unvoted.

That has nothing to do with anything. You said nothing about why you no longer thought the Zdenek case is what you were looking for - only that it didn't convince you.

Magua, you think we are scum. Why?

The question was, "What do you see as the scum motivation of voting you after voting Nexus?" After all, if, FYPOV, you're town, and I'm scum, what did I gain if I'm moving off of your (FYPOV town) lynch to Nexus'?

Here's the scum motivation. You voted for someone who was on V/LA with no reasoning, and proceeded to lurk for four days. That's a terrible, godawful shit wagon that isn't going to go anywhere. Now it's deadline and hey,

of course

you've gotta get off the Nexus wagon - it didn't go anywhere! Gives you freedom to get back on Twilight wagon if it's in vogue and go elsewhere if it's not.

Do you think Feysal is town?

Brain says null-leaning-scum with that Voyeur claim, heart says town. Haven't gotten a chance to speak with Sotty since Feysal claimed.

Do you think Nexus is town?

Weak town. I like what he's posted, but with his V/LA he hasn't posted much. So he's townish for now, but it's a townread on little enough evidence that a couple of bad posts could totally change my view on him.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Twilight:"At least we lose very little if Feysal is telling the truth - Voyeur is a pretty useless role." That's a pretty scummy sentence. Any town PR is valuable. I still don't believe Feysal is telling the truth, but just highlighting this attitude.

Actually, the important thing is that any

townie

is valuable. Feysal is barely even a PR. Obviously, we lose the standard loss of a mislynch - but we're for sure town-aligned, so any gamble on Feysal is better than that. That any lynch on a townie is bad goes without saying. What we're saying is that a Feysal lynch, if he's telling the truth, is not significantly

worse

than a VT lynch. Certainly not enough for us to consider self-voting, and we've long since been pushing the third biggest wagon.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

The soothing calmness of a Magua post.

Unvote, Vote: Twilight Sparkle Aahhh, that's better.

Magua's right, Feysal is town.

It's not too late.

TS- Zdenek is in one of my top 5 town reads atm.

I'm more interested in things like DTMaster, TS, BL, Nexus, and yes still Thor. Shouldn't he have at least put a vote down by now?

Magua's right, Feysal is town.

It's not too late.

Unvote, Vote: Feysal All his talk about me not doing anything today and yet he's still voting me. I was happy with my TS vote today and thought the lunch had a good chance of happening. Not so much now though.

Hahahahaha.

Oh, man.

I'm late for work, but was in the process of making a big wall post...but oh. The irony. You had to walk right into that one.

Hahahaha.

HAHAHAHAHAHA.

I am just going to quote the one section I was writing on Raivann first. It deserves its own section, I swear.

=====

Okay. At this point, I don't fucking care if it is mod-confirmed that there's only one scumteam, and there are ten governors who've promised to save you. You are the most incompetent obv-scum that I have ever seen. This is nothing whatsoever how you played in

A Game of Thrones

, and only superior to your play in

A Clash of Kings

in that

you haven't voted a player you called town two pages ago yet

(Mina-from-the-future's-edit: LMAO!!!!!!!).

I will honestly link to posts from

A Game of Thrones

in which you showed actual evidence of a higher thought process just to appease anyone who thinks, "Oh, Raivann is a VI, so he ALWAYS plays like this."

I'm just curious. What made you decide Feysal was town, anyway, posts after attacking his claim? Actually, why the hell did you suspect Feysal in the first place? Reading you in ISO, you put him on your list of day-vig targets to Cow, but never actually attack anything he's done.

I'm going to discuss something with hito and Sotty. Because were I on my own, I would do something very stupid right now.

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP: Aaah, posted that before checking over my quote tags. Some of those were redundant, and I also forgot to link to a few posts of Raivann's questioning Feysal's claim BETWEEN sheeping Magua and unvoting AND calling Feysal town.

[Twilight Sparkle]

When I have more time, MoI's big post in response to me deserves a response, as does Zdenek's. Still haven't got a chance to check out the links LMP provided. But for now...

No one put Zdenek at L-1 yet.

Yes, this sounds strange when we're the ones who made the case on him. But I'm not ready for him to claim. We're currently deliberating on something.

Just a few notes:

-Sorry to hito for not really discussing the logistics of Feysal's claim on AIM. Yes, scum could request fake role PMs from the mod in the previous two games in this series. Feysal's paraphrasing of every line of flavour in his role PM is null.

-Anyone pushing the "Petyr Baelish would not be Lannister-aligned" argument sucks. Faraday always gives scum safeclaims, so regardless of Feysal's alignment, Littlefinger was clearly intended to be a town-aligned character. I'd

almost

say his being Petyr Baelish would be a towntell, simply because it suck (since last game had Petyr and Sandor as town-aligned and Tyrion as scum-aligned just to mess with people)...but Percy WAS given Melisandre last game. I can't remember if Faraday randomized the real and fake character names in the prequels.

-Even I'll admit that hito's sentence about Feysal's role elicited a "...do you have any idea what that sounded like?" from me as I read it, so I can actually sympathize with people finding it scummy, but he clarified what he meant. Feysal's role alone isn't powerful enough (particularly when revealed on D2 before he could out someone fakeclaiming protective/investigative results) to merit saving him, so it all comes down to whether you think he's town based on play alone. And also, we aren't confident enough in his innocence to fight Feysal's lynch harder than we already have by voting Zdenek. I still think a non-Feysal lynch today is viable, though.

-When I'd started writing this, I was going to white-knight Feysal and say that Feysal's defence felt town. Yes, Kast wasn't the best night action choice, and his "dying without having claimed" comment is bad. But his frustration feels town. And although I'd suspected he'd might be buddying up to us, there's little reason for him to defend Twilight Sparkle with meta evidence if he's scum and going down, anyway.

But there's one major point that bothers me with Feysal. I've just ISO'd him, and noticed that he's given little in the way of suspects today. All he's done is agree with our Zdenek case. The rest of his posts are walls and walls of defence. As in, something like 90% defence, This is something that's niggling at me. Particularly because when he made his comment to LMP along the lines of, "I know I'm dying today or tonight," I internally went, "Um...so shouldn't you be a lot more defeated as town, and just trying to scumhunt with your last breath?"

I need to tiptoe really, really carefully around this, but I need to check out Consulmaker II to get a hint of how Feysal reacts to being wagoned as town.

-I was going to say to Shadow that Thor was too good a scum player to drop a useless vote on Raivann when his scumbuddy was being wagoned while us and Zdenek were still viable. That's kind of a moot point now, though. Also was going to ask him why he hadn't mentioned Zdenek as he discussed the leading wagons, although he's shared his read of him now. But I'm not quite sure I get his reasons for clearing Feysal. Just that his claim doesn't sound like a fake (which is null, anyway--Petyr is either Feysal's real claim or a mod-provided one)? What do you think of Feysal's actual play?

The Nexus drive seems to be similar to the Thor drive, confirmation bias combined with lurkage = scum. Meh.

What Nexus drive? Hasn't Magua been the only person who's voted for him all day, aside from a few people looking at him sideways?

My case on him is 'gut' also just his antics towards the end of day today where he's gone into a mud slinging whirlwind and is basically trying to make Day 2 about a lurker vote as far as I can tell.

What are you talking about, making Day 2 about a lurker vote? Whatever else you can say about Raivann, this is a weird superficial dismissal of his play. The cases he's made for his votes on Twilight Sparkle and Feysal--ha ha, just kidding. The cases which he's

mindlessly sheeped

by just popping votes down depending on which way the winds blew have not been about lurker votes.

===========================================

I wanted to see what would happen, specifically whether anyone would complain about it. Nothing did, which was less than useful. I gave it a few days, and then put it back as the deadline approached.

I think you're scum and I want you lynched. I think you played a subpar game D1, a subpar game D2 until it looked like you were going to get lynched for it, then busted out the Zdenek case. Although I appreciate the upswing in activity, I still think you're scum.

...Let me get this straight.

I was the one telling hito that even though I wasn't fond of Magua's revote, hito was being overly paranoid and OMGUS-y for thinking he's scum. (We're of the opinion that there's 0-1 scum among {MagnaofIllusion, Magua, Benmage}.) And I agree it makes sense to hold stronger players who can look townish as scum to higher standards, as irritating as it was when we couldn't help not being a super-active protown force.

But you're saying that your suspicions of us never actually diminished, and your unvote of us was all part of some super-secret gambit "to see if anyone complained." And because no one did complain about your unvote, that meant we were scum?

...Yeah.

I just want you to know that if you're town, I hate you right now.

...I was going to add even more to the sentence up above. But I deleted it. I'll just say that I agree with hito's #1550.

At least MoI and even Zdenek have attacked us for something beyond inactivity. So their tunneling on us makes some sense. You summarized your own case on us as "Twilight Sparkle is a hydra composed of hito, Sotty, and Mina. Tell us who they think the scum are." Now that we've told you who we think the scum are...sorry, but we're still scum, because it took us this long to start playing the game at full-strength when THAT'S THE WHOLE REASON WE'RE A HYDRA IN THE FIRST PLACE.

I think I'm going to shut up and let hito do the defending from now on. Otherwise, my posts will deteriorate into, "Anyone who was, is, or ever will be voting for us is stupid and sucks at Mafia, I hope you feel soooooooo guilty when we flip, and please DIAF." And then people will be all, "Look at the scum flailing! Her appeal to emotion

IS NOTED

." And then that will appeal to my

own

emotion of blind rage, and I'll end up arrested for manslaughter.

Also:

Your quote, "I expect the other scum to jump off of Twilight, and I want to be first. But I guess I can slide back on if needed." shows that you think there are/were other scum on your wagon. Looking back, your main attacks have been Zdenek, MagnaofIllusion, and I, all of whom were voting for you today, and Thor, who was not.

What's your point? "You think there is scum on your wagon. You've attacked players on your wagon, as well as a player off your wagon." But yes, that's part of why we latched onto Zdenek--of the players on our wagon, his vote felt the worst (and Raivann was off the table, anyway). There's always scum on a leading wagon.

(I've made my thoughts known on Feysal. Unlike hito, I lean null-to-scummy on Nexus, but in all honesty, he's mostly blended into the background for me--like Zdenek did until we started taking a closer look at him on D2. On D3 we're planning to revisit our reads on every player in the game.)




The above three posts were all Mina.

[Twilight Sparkle]

If you think that my case has only been about your inactivity, then you've stopped reading my posts circa #1049.

I've been reading your posts. Your points are almost all "you should be more pro-town" (do you still think we are undercontributing?) or "I don't know who you think the scum are" (is this still the case?). About the only point independant of this is your dislike of my personal ISO Spectacular reads, which I've already addressed.

In particular, I read your 1321.

Here are some relevant quotes from 1321:

Twilight's case on Zdenek is exactly what I'm looking for out of that slot.

and:

Other than that, I like the case...but I'm not convinced by it. I could buy Zdenek as bussing diddin D1 where I can't buy diddin bussing Raivann. Twilight's suspicion of Zdenek is at least set-up for the last few days. But, I retain suspicion of Twilight Sparkle nonetheless. Call it lingering suspicion.

You like the case, but you're

not

convinced by it.

We also read your 1446. Here it is in all of it's manifold glory:

So, after ruminations, I've decided that I don't believe Zdenek is scum. Twilight's case on Zdenek is mostly "Here's a post-by-post analysis, and here's the scummy things I found" without tying it into, eg, actions that were taken and associations with already flipped scum. Rereading Zdenek's D1, I can see the possibility of the bus (unlike with Raivann), but it's far more likely that he's simply not scum.

My preferred lynch is Twilight Sparkle.
UNVOTE: Nexus
VOTE: Twilight Sparkle

I will vote Feysal near deadline to avoid a no lynch if necessary, but I'd rather by far lynch Twilight.

So, you don't think Zdenek is scum "after rumination." Why the rumination? You didn't think he was scum before - this post comes from the perspective of someone who voted Zdenek, but you didn't. You stumbled blindly onto Nexus without reasoning, went silent for four days, then stumbled back on to us. You didn't like that it didn't tie into "actions already taken" (what does that even mean) and "associations with already flipped scum" (absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, and anyway, you seem to dislike the primarily associative Feysal case). For that matter, what did you like about the case before that you don't like now? You seem to be implying that it once convinced you Zdenek was scum, and now does not, but that's a lie.

You justified your reasonless swap onto Nexus with "I did it to see if anyone would complain." This is terrible, awful, no-good-very-bad play for quite a few reasons:

• If you're voting insincerely, you should damn well explain the reasoning behind it clearly when the experiment is complete. Disavowing any responsibility to your Nexus vote is bad enough, but not saying so until pressured is even worse.
  
• As you've noticed, it's close to deadline. As you've also noticed, we're probably not getting lynched. So tell me, Magua, if we've always been the one you wanted most lynched, why sit idly on the Nexus wagon for so long?
  
• "I did it to see if anyone would complain" reduces down to "I did it to draw reactions"; the second on my list of Manchurian Candidate kill-phrases. Watch it catch Howard Roark scum here.

You're taking the position, basically, that you've always wanted us lynched the most. But that's not what 1321 reads as at all. And now you're dancing around the issue with cutesy non-answers like "I want you lynched cause you're scum lawl" and now "it's SO OBVIOUS why I want you lynched why should I say it?? Besides your lynch ain't gonna happen :'("

Furthermore, I really don't care about convincing you that I'm right and you're scum, since that's never going to happen, and at this point, neither is your lynch.

You're not stupid, Magua. Those two pages you "deleted" would have helped push our wagon and you know it. Your "case" on us is now covered with enough mold that scientists are discovering novel antibiotics on it. You're arguing that no, your case is not moldy, but you're still not going to post anything - while also complaining that we're not getting lynched today. We would be a far more likely wagon if you had taken the time to re-justify your case, and your continued unwillingness to do so suggests to me that I'm absolutely correct in my interpretation that the case is old news and you know it.

I'm also seriously unhappy with Raivann's shenanigans. He's cartoonishly mongering for our lynch and kissing up to Magua like there's no tomorrow. No justification of his reads at all, blatant acknowledgement that he feels no pressure to scumhunt if he's got the Hand's protection. But the best part - the absolute most wonderful shiny part - is that RIGHT NOW, even while he proclaims, "Just join me and Magua and Benmage. We gonna lynch some scum!", he's voting for Feysal,

who he has called town.

He can't even be bothered to keep his vote in line while he "scumhunts." (Mina has more to say on this.)

If you are similarly displeased with Raivann's antics, please sign the dotted line below:

Unnominate, Nominate: Raivann

Preview Edit:

Posts like this betray that you're not reading properly/carefully. I EXPLICITLY named Dana who was one of the 4 on the Zdenek wagon.

Feysal is another who will obviously not vote himself. BunnyLover is the last who is going to lose her vote come deadline.

You asked Dana in his own line if he would switch to Feysal come deadline. You then had a separate list of five players "wasting their votes". I don't think it's a stretch to say that this implies you are not counting dana as one of those players wasting their votes.

As for Bunnylover, I think it's fairly obvious that if a Nominate is triggered with less than a full majority at lynch, it would not ret-con the vote away and STOP the lynch. The lynch successfully resolving is the only reason the Nomination triggered in the first place, and so BL will not lose their vote if they are Nominated with less than a full majority.

You're right that we had neglected to remember that Feysal was a Zdenek voter who obviously wouldn't switch.

It's what, 22 hours to deadline? Yeah, Zdenek isn't getting lynched. Besides, our point regarding Zdenek's response to Ghostlin turned out to be a mis-interpretation. It's worth seeing him another day to see what he does when not tunneled on us (more on this tomorrow). Feysal's lack of a "these are my final reads, use them when I pass away" post is makin me itchy anyway.

Unvote, Vote: Feysal

-hito (with Mina's AIM approval)

[Twilight Sparkle]

Mod: Raivann is voting for Feysal, not Zdenek.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Just in case the vig takes Benmage's suggestion seriously:

Presenting, Raivann as town as

A Game of Thrones Mafia

.

Read him in ISO, if you don't want to read the whole game. Go on. You will be shocked.

Notable posts:

-In his first few posts, catches onto a scumtell from me on page one. Actually puts genuine pressure on me and later admits he was testing me for reactions by calling me caught scum to get the game moving.
-Makes actual cases, including this one on my scumbuddy.
-As a vanilla townie, is smart enough to play dumb at a VT role reveal.
-Genuinely and rationally questions the lynch mob on a popular target. Here, I'll quote two of his posts. Tell me if these posts sound anything like how he's played here:

No. I wasn't directing my question at mod, I was pointing it out to town. I was trying to figure out scum setup and if there was an SK and if The Inq. was lying about being targeted.
I was surprised when mod changed kill flavour from killed to throat slashed.
It makes me believe The Inq. a little bit more than I did before, I guess.

If The Inq is SK then are you saying he didn't kill last night?

My read on the Inq is I'm still neutral on him and not sure if I believe him or not.
I just finished a game with him and he was town and does seem like he scumhunted more in that one. His post count wasn't high in that either. We killed him N2 because he nailed Amished.

My top suspects are Buttonmen & Miserable

then Bogre,TheInq,LockeLamora,Kinetic, Seacore in a Nuetral clump together

Leaning town on Mina, MacLock

The Inq. wasn't under that much suspicion and to come out as being targeted...
It is a ballsy scum move. Like what Kinetic was saying about The Inq. being SK.
So Inq. didn't kill last night, instead he said he was targeted so if we don't lynch him and there's 2 kills on N2 he can say 'See told ya I was targeted'
and then throw on top of it 1 more NK block with his armor.
I would imagine the scum motivation for having 2 hit armour is so the mafia wont try and kill him ?
Why wouldn't he just claim totally bulletproof?

Buttonmen's claim of limited cop does kinda go with The Inq. limited bulletproof.
I guess he could have thought of that too though

Also, note that unlike here, he never actually votes his town read. :/

There's more, but read his entire ISO or even check out that game if you don't believe me.

I'll save Raivann as scum for another post, in case the thread is locked quickly, but this is EXACTLY how he played in

A Clash of Kings

(and how I outed him on D1), and NOTHING WHATSOEVER how he plays as town. However, in case the thread is locked first, remember Raivann's jump from saying he believed Budja's claim to voting him. Remember his calling me scum because I suspected him. This is exactly the same thing he's doing here.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Preview-edit: Now I feel like shit.

If it makes you feel better, Feysal, I lost my never-been-mislynched streak recently, too. It happens to everyone.

--------------------------------------------------
Raivann has claimed scum with this post:

And all scummy to boot!

Why? He dismissed posts in which I caught him in a lie as scummy and completely dodged all this:

Hahahahaha.

Oh, man.

I'm late for work, but was in the process of making a big wall post...but oh. The irony. You had to walk right into that one.

Hahahaha.

HAHAHAHAHAHA.

I am just going to quote the one section I was writing on Raivann first. It deserves its own section, I swear.

=====

Okay. At this point, I don't fucking care if it is mod-confirmed that there's only one scumteam, and there are ten governors who've promised to save you. You are the most incompetent obv-scum that I have ever seen. This is nothing whatsoever how you played in A Game of Thrones, and only superior to your play in A Clash of Kings in that you haven't voted a player you called town two pages ago yet (Mina-from-the-future's-edit: LMAO!!!!!!!).

I will honestly link to posts from A Game of Thrones in which you showed actual evidence of a higher thought process just to appease anyone who thinks, "Oh, Raivann is a VI, so he ALWAYS plays like this."

I'm just curious. What made you decide Feysal was town, anyway, posts after attacking his claim? Actually, why the hell did you suspect Feysal in the first place? Reading you in ISO, you put him on your list of day-vig targets to Cow, but never actually attack anything he's done.

I'm going to discuss something with hito and Sotty. Because were I on my own, I would do something very stupid right now.

Raivann, one last chance:

-Why did you ever suspect Feysal?
-What made you decide to defect from Twilight Sparkle and vote him?
-Why did you call him town again?
-What made you revote him?

This is Raivann's scum meta to a T. This is EXACTLY THE SAME THING that busted him in the prequel. As scum, he just plays the clown and sheeps whatever popular bandwagon gains attention.

(Oh, and happy birthday.)

[Twilight Sparkle]

3 Starks dead, zero Starks lynched. Lynching is for losers.

Sadly this means I'm probably wrong about MagU because I seriously doubt there's two scum in {Benmage, Magua, MoI}. Maybe separate faction scum, but I don't see two Starks blatantly agreeing SO HARD in the thread. Meh, backburner it for now, if another non-Lannister faction flips I'll pick up my shiny toy again.

As alluded to yesterday, some of the passion has gone out of the zdenek wagon of late. We'll see what happens when he's actively scumhunting and not just responding to point we're raising. For now:

Vote: Raivann

Mina's lovely ISO 85 and ISO 86 should make it clear why Raivann wagon is best wagon.

Also,

moderator:

as a hydra, during the wedding, will we be allowed to have all three heads posting under their respective QT accounts? Or do you want us to make a "Twilight Sparkle" QT account and use only that?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

I'm about 85% convinced Zdenek is scum. I'd like to hear him claim before we enter the limited discussion phase. I have one pending question to the mod; it's unlikely to affect evaluation of Zdenek's claim.

Let me get this straight.

You spend the last two days or so in the thread jumping up and down screaming for a Feysal lynch. You act with swift urgency, yelling at absolutely anyone who doesn't vote Feysal. Finally, the wagon resolves, flips town...

and that has you 85% sure zdenek is scum?

I'm not following.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Posting from my phone now, so just a few quick comments:

1) I don't think I've ever enjoyed seeing a flip so much. Haha. Hahahahaha. Ahahahahahahaha. Oh, this is so sweet. Nice try, MoI. There are a few people in whose faces I'm restraining the urge to rub this in.

2) I personally think there are either two scumteams or a serial killer, because MoI was an unlikely vig shot. Also, I'm convinced that Raivann is scum right now, and he apparently doesn't fit well as a Stark. Normally, I wouldn't base my theory of the set-up on reads, but his Feysal vote and dodging my pressure to explain it was a scumclaim. Like I said yesterday, Raivann is ridiculously transparent. Unfortunately, that means MoI's flip no longer clears us, but at least Raivann's will.

3) Thor, wait. Weren't you the one who said yesterday that you were only voting Zdenek so as to save Feysal, even though you had a weak town read on him? What changed your view of him? Whatever happened to your Raivann suspicions?

4) @Cow: ...ah. I'll discuss Kast with hito.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Unvote, vote: zdenek

If zdenek flips stark, that makes Raivann probtown I think. Dear lord. Hopefully he flips some other scumfaction and then we can lynch Raivann and everything will be wonderful.

-hito, with Sottys AIM approval

[Twilight Sparkle]

I am Tywin Lannister. I become night kill immune if Tyrion Lannister dies.

a.) why weren't you pushing a chesskid lynch d1

b.) why did you wait on claiming this

c.)

[Twilight Sparkle]

aww fuck there goes my perfect no-fuckups streak

a.) Chesskid didn't claim Tywin Lannister, he just claimed that his character had also been Hand of the King.

No, bro, Tywin is the one you're fakeclaiming. Get it together.

Softclaiming a Lannister Hand for A Storm of Swords is softclaiming Tywin or Tyrion. If you really were Tywin, and you KNEW of Tyrion's existance, you'd know chess was Tyrion.

b.) In hopes that I could havedrawn a night kill after claiming Tywin Lannister.

o.O;; (imgur is down right now but imagine a pony looking confused as fuck)

So...you didn't claim...to try to draw a night kill...after claiming?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

well that was fun

unvote, Vote: Raivann

kast: It's not exactly easy to "act in a manner to draw NKs". I agree he should've softclaimed some ridiciloawesome PR D2 but not everyone thinks of that sort of thing. also why didn't you ask dana to claim as well?

-every pony galloping in glorious unison

[Twilight Sparkle]

I like Seteal, Twilight, and Bunnylover as scum atm.

Not voting (8) Nexus, Locke Lamora, Benmage, Andrius, Raivann, Setael, popsofctown, DrippingGoofball

[Twilight Sparkle]

Yes, pops, of course he COULD be an sk. But it's pretty silly to go SK hunting this early.

We have tempo, and we should spend it hunting scum.

zdenek can join LL in the ranks of "town for now, we'll revisit the issue if we have evidence there's an SK among us and they're still alive".

Thor 1786 and LMP 1787 are good posts.

-hito (with Sotty's AIM approval)

[Twilight Sparkle]

Andrius, I had similar reservations as first, but think of this as a backup role with no primary. Saying, "You gain a power when Slappy the Clown is killed" isn't at all bollocks. Remember, the PM did NOT give him chess's name - chess just happened to softclaim his name for some reason.

Yes, it told him Tyrion was likely town, but Tyrion was likely town *anyway*. It'd be like running DC Comics mafia and having a role that told you -gasp -

Superman is a townie.

You seem to be under the impression that it told him the identity of Tyrion. It did not.

Bunnylover, zdenek is likely town after that claim, and if he's not town he's probably sk. sk hunting as a rule is generally a post-massclaim activity when we know for sure whether there are spare kills floating around. *We* don't see too much merit to the zdenek case at this point, and we wrote it. Blindly stating you agree with it isn't enough.

I agree that a chesskid shot makes tons of sense if zdenek is sk. Keep that one in the back of your heads.

Here is something amusing for you all:

I like Seteal, Twilight, and Bunnylover as scum atm.

Vote: Shadow1psc[/] I love this wagon. The reason I thought shadow was town early was because I thought his post wherehe said aww schucks i'm lannister. When I read my pm I was like ok im scum lannister but whose my scumbuddies. But yeah that's not really what shadow was saying.

[Twilight Sparkle]

@Twilight Sparkle:

Raivann plays like Furcolow. Agree or disagree?

Disagree. Furcolow votes early and often. Indeed, his problem is that he is often

not cognizant enough

of bandwagons and so frequently has less-than-useful votes. Raivann shoved his vote up his ass and left it there until someone showed up (independent of his "suspicions") that looked like an easy target.

Furcolow can be annoying to play with, but you always know *exactly* how he feels.

Oh, and while I've got your attention, what made you put the brakes onto the Zdenek lynch D2?

Minas gut had been swinging from Zdenek-scum to Feysal-scum. She also didn't realize how close deadline was, so I said, "look, we've got 22 hours until deadline, Feysal is the only lynch that's going to happen

anyway

, so if your gut is swinging, all the better. I'm just gonna switch to Feysal." With us off the Zdenek wagon, it was basically a no-go and she didn't need to write whatever post she was writing (because obviously zdenek wasn't getting to L-1.) I don't know exactly what she planned to put in that post; I'll leave that for her to answer.

Your post is all "Stay tuned" but all I saw after that was stuff from you about me that I ignored, and stuff from you about Raivann that I ignored.

aahh you're lucky MoI flipped scum or that'd be a paddilin'


-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

I'm reading. I'll be back. But I'm NOT buying this shit Tywin claim. No siree.

Wait.

1.) How many ASoIaF books have you read?

2.) Do you disbeleive the "Twyin Lannister" part of the claim or the "Modified NK immune" part of the claim?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Vote: Twilight Sparkle Shove that up your ass. That is *exactly* how I feel.

Who is more likely scum, shadow or us, and why?

[Twilight Sparkle]

It's after four AM and I have work tomorrow, but just a drive-by posting:

-Magua, I know you said you completely ignored the posts in which we attacked Raivann and asked you multiple direct questions, but take a look at Raivann's town meta that I'd linked to yesterday. Admittedly, it's from a year ago, and some players on this site become lazier after time. But town!Raivann is nothing like Furcolow. Also, Feysal apparently did his own meta research showing this wasn't a fluke.

-Why are Raivann and Bunnylover off the lynch list as confirmed non-Stark, but you're going to "wait and see" another day on us? And why does MoI flipping

jailkeeper

(as opposed to Stark) change your read on us?

-My cold feet on Zdenek happened because basically, two of the points I'd been most proud of were misrepresenting him. I'd skimmed through the pages after Magua's 926 looking for any reference in Ghostlin's post to it. But apparently Zdenek was asking him why he

hadn't

mentioned Magua's post when Zden's opinions were symmetrical to them. (I still don't like that he felt the need to pad his "catch-up" post with a really weak point from early in day one against someone he said was unlikely to be a Stark, though.) And although I dislike that he claims to have coincidentally found Sotty's "soft attacks" of MoI scummy (that was possibly the worst point of the case on us), the narrative he gave for his stances on D1 was plausible.

And people like Kast and LMP dismissing our case as crappy also made me lose confidence in it (MoI's dismissal, on the other hand, was totally inept). Furthermore, in some of his defences, Zdenek seemed to genuinely believe we were scum misrepresenting him. And I didn't have any time to check the meta that LMP had provided (still haven't got around to it). So I started to worry that we were just suffering from confirmation bias.

Additionally, I was growing paranoid of Feysal. Part of it was that Feysal flipped scum in [REDACTED] and had been kissing up to me in that game, so it made me paranoid of his defence and sheeping of our Zdenek case here. Part of it was his lack of last reads. Part of it is that I've been the idiot screaming herself blue in the face trying to derail a scum wagon too many times.

It was just a bunch of small things that made me panic over how hard we'd pushed Zdenek, as well as reluctant to force another potential claim and save Feysal.

Oh, fuck. Now that I write this out, I'm starting to suspect Zdenek again. I hated his initial reaction to Kast's softclaim (the "it doesn't help the town for me to claim right away" comment was like a more wooden version of Percy's reaction to Locke's investigation on him in the prequel). He's also very robotic and passionless. He kind of reminds me of a more competent version of Zang scum. And why the hell did he just completely drop his Twilight Sparkle suspicions today with no explanation whatsoever? He doesn't follow through on a single read from day to day.

Also, something that's been bothering me overnight is that multiple people kept saying, "Yeah, the Zdenek and Feysal cases are both awesome. But you know, the Feysal one is just a teensy bit better because of the

connections

." And yet IIRC, not one person nominated Zdenek, their supposed second suspect. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

...goddamn it. This was originally supposed to be a

short

post,

white-knighting

Zdenek. Bad Mina, bad!

But the odds that he'd come up with that claim on his own are too low. Like Thor, I'd also assumed Kast had a tracking result on him. And a SK would probably be full bulletproof, not "modified kill immune" (and furthermore would probably assume he'd been tracked). So although I have one conspiracy theory that I'll save for private pony time, we should not be lynching him today.

Also, the arguments some people are giving against his claim are godawful. For one thing, stop saying the mod would

never

tell a townie that a certain character is Lannister-aligned. That's exactly what Faraday and Seacore did in

A Clash of Kings

. Loras Tyrell gained a one-shot vig kill upon Renly Baratheon's death. (Renly was run up to L-1 on D1 and claimed, eventually outliving Loras and surviving as confirmed town the whole game.)

More coming tomorrow.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

I am still suspicious of them. Here are somethings that I would like to add to what I've said before. They said

MoI's suspicions have had a logical townie like progression. It started early yesterday with his response to my questioning and has just built from there. Post 1170 is detailed reasoning for his suspicion and it reads genuine to me.

But not too long after that they said called MoI

The player with whom I have reservations the size of a small continent and whose every post raises yet another alarm bell

It surprises me that they would have no reservations about a vote coming from a player about whom they felt like that.

I don't know what you are trying to say here at all. Can you explain it clearer? Something has been lost in the translation I think. I don't see how the two quotes have anything to do with each other at all

Also, look at this from TS.

Sadly this means I'm probably wrong about MagU because I seriously doubt there's two scum in {Benmage, Magua, MoI}. Maybe separate faction scum, but I don't see two Starks blatantly agreeing SO HARD in the thread. Meh, backburner it for now, if another non-Lannister faction flips I'll pick up my shiny toy again.

As alluded to yesterday, some of the passion has gone out of the zdenek wagon of late. We'll see what happens when he's actively scumhunting and not just responding to point we're raising. For now:

Vote: Raivann

In the first paragraph, decides to stop attacking because Magua is unlikely to be Stark, and then votes Raivann. But later we have:

2) I personally think there are either two scumteams or a serial killer, because MoI was an unlikely vig shot. Also, I'm convinced that Raivann is scum right now, and he apparently doesn't fit well as a Stark. Normally, I wouldn't base my theory of the set-up on reads, but his Feysal vote and dodging my pressure to explain it was a scumclaim. Like I said yesterday, Raivann is ridiculously transparent. Unfortunately, that means MoI's flip no longer clears us, but at least Raivann's will.

So Raivann is not Stark, but he is still a worthy lynch.

No, that's not we said at all. “Apparently doesn't fit well as Stark” isn't the same as “Not Stark” I think that was from a Mina posting, so I'll let her come back and touch on this some more.

I am willing to admit that both of these issues can be explained away by the fact they are a hydra, and it is doubtful that there is the will to lynch them, so I am not going to push this lynch today. I am not willing to clear them completely of being Stark just because of MoI's flip. Since they are a strong group of players, their lynch was unlikely, and on top of that both MoI and Twilight are reasonable targets for nightkills, so there would have been a definite benefit if they distanced from each other, and the risk of it ending in a lynch was low.

Were we playing the same game yesterday? There were times we were fighting for our lives and for a nice chunk of the day we were the leading vote getter. I'd say our lynch was very possible yesterday, not at all unlikely as you want to claim. Also, if we're your top scum read you

should

keep pushing us. This whole “they won't be lynched” just smells like crap to me and is a really weak sauce argument when you look at how yesterday went. This is also contrary to your point tying us to MoI. So, what gives?

Andy, welcome to the game. Your wall is... Wally. I'll read it in detail tomorrow. I do like your final list of reads for the most part however.

~Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

TS is obviously keen to keep me on their suspect list to bring up later for some reason, one which I have yet to fathom out. Any reason for that one, TS?

I'm sure I've said this before, but - if compelling evidence of a serial killer arrives, I want to make sure the town remembers to look at you as well as Zdenek, whether I'm alive or no. As I've also said, in a game with as many kills flying around as this, hunting serial killers is best saved for post-massclaim. It's the same "later" you're waiting on for Zdenek - I'm just pointing out that it applies to you as well, since flavorwise you're...well, a serial killer. :p

We could probably think of a table signal for voting that involves a certain number of self votes - unvotes. I guess just think of the messages you'd want to convey across tables, then sort them in terms of commonality and map them to one self vote-unovte, two self votes-unvotes, etc. Like, just vote someone normally, "This is a good wagon." one self vote, unvote "This is a bad wagon." Two self votes, unvotes, "I'm claiming a PR, don't lynch me." Three self votes, unvotes, "I'm claiming a PR, don't lynch whoever you're wagoning." Something like that.

Regardless, that's someone elses job because I'm out for a day or two. This is a Mina/Sotty only venture for a bit.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

All right, I checked with Faraday, and you're allowed to vote the mod, dead players, and people who aren't in the game. It therefore makes sense to use those votes instead. So taking hitogoroshi's idea to its logical extreme, since there's nothing in the rules against it...

Here is a Morse code translator.

1) Type in a message. Press Translate.

2) Your output should be a string of dashes (long sounds), dots (short sounds), spaces, and slashes (sentence breaks). Copy and paste the output into a Word document.

3) In Editing, go to Replace, and agree to Replace all for the following changes:

a. Replace / with

Code: Select all

[vote]Eddard Stark[/vote]

Important:

do this step first, or else it'll replace the slashes in vote tags as well.

b. Replace - with

Code: Select all

[vote]MagnaofIllusion[/vote]

c. Replace . with

Code: Select all

[unvote]MagnaofIllusion[/unvote]

4) Copy and paste the final text into a spoiler box in the main thread (leaving the = blank because only votes/unvotes are allowed).

Example of a code:

Spoiler:

UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark 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Copy and paste this into a word document. Replacing all for VOTE: Eddard Stark with /, VOTE: Twilight Sparkle with -, UNVOTE: Twilight Sparkle[/vote] with ., and line breaks with /, you get:

.-. .- .. ...- .- -. -. --..-- / .-- .... -.-- / -.. .. -.. / -.-- --- ..- / ... .- -.-- --..-- / .-..-. .-- .... -.-- / .- .-. . / -.-- --- ..- / ... - .. .-.. .-.. / .- ... -.- .. -. --. / -- . / ... .. .-.. .-.. -.-- / --.- ..- . ... - .. --- -. ... / .- -... --- ..- - / -.. . .- -.. / .--. .-.. .- -.-- . .-. ... / .-- .... . -. / -.-- --- ..- .----. .-. . / ... --- .-.. -.. / --- -. / -- . / -... . .. -. --. / ... -.-. ..- -- ..--.. .-..-. / - .... .- - / ... --- ..- -. -.. ... / .-.. .. -.- . / - .... . / .--. --- ...- / --- ..-. / ... --- -- . --- -. . / .-- .... --- / -... . .-.. .. . ...- . ... / .-- . / --. . -. ..- .. -. . .-.. -.-- / - .... .. -. -.- / -.-- --- ..- .----. .-. . / ... -.-. ..- -- .-.-.- / .. / .-. . -- . -- -... . .-. / -- .- --. -. .- / -.. --- .. -. --. / - .... . / ... .- -- . / - .... .. -. --. / - --- / -- . / .. -. / .-. . ... .--. --- -. ... . / - --- / -- -.-- / .- - - .- -.-. -.- / --- -. / .... .. -- ---... / .-..-. -.-- --- ..- .----. .-. . / --- -... ...- ... -.-. ..- -- --..-- / -... ..- - / -.-- --- ..- .----. .-. . / ... ..- ..-. ..-. . .-. .. -. --. / ..-. .-. --- -- / -.-. --- -. ..-. .. .-. -- .- - .. --- -. / -... .. .- ... / .- -. -.. / -.. . .-.. ..- -.. .. -. --. / -.-- --- ..- .-. ... . .-.. ..-. / .. -. - --- / - .... .. -. -.- .. -. --. / . ...- . .-. -.-- - .... .. -. --. / .. .----. -- / -.. --- .. -. --. / .. ... / ... -.-. ..- -- -- -.-- .-.-.- .-..-.

Type this message as input into the Morse code translator linked to above to read the message.

I wouldn't bother using this method to make long involved quote walls (that one paragraph was ten pages in Word), but at the very least, it will let people claim their roles and ensure crucial information can be revealed.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP: Oops. My initial idea was to self-vote before I realized voting for someone not in the game was cleaner, and I forgot to change the Twilight Sparkle votes to MoI votes in the second part. I also originally used line breaks instead of VOTE: Eddard Stark.

Correction: to translate this, copy and paste this into a word document. Replacing all for VOTE: Eddard Stark with /, VOTE: MagnaofIllusion with -, and UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion with /, you get: (blah blah blah).

Also, since I just realize I accidentally voted for ourselves.

VOTE: Raivann

If you use this code, remember to move your vote back to wherever it was before.

[Twilight Sparkle]

(reading....how is this not an SK claim. Player gets better when a fellow town player is killed...idno)

Just noticed this.

What are you talking about? Didn't you play

A Clash of Kings

? Did you forget about Renly and Loras from that game?

[Twilight Sparkle]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

I've been working on a post today (although I'm checking over a set-up for something as well), but stop this already.

The whole fucking point of the Morse code was so that no one would have to claim before the wedding started!

Also, Raivann, don't claim.

No, I'm being serious.

If for whatever reason, you have successful confirmation of a night action that proves Nexus is lying about having roleblocked you, claim. Otherwise, just keep your mouth shut.

And if you're wagoned to L-1 during the wedding phase, use the Morse code to post your claim.

[Twilight Sparkle]

^Mina

(Also, gut reaction is town to Nexus' claim. He provided flavour and thought very quickly on his feet. Remember, if he's telling the truth and is scum, that would mean the Starks had a jailkeeper

and

a roleblocker. This may change if we get a flip from another faction, though. And unless Raivann dropped a softclaim I've forgotten, he'd have been an unlikely choice for Nexus' buddy MoI to block. There were better targets for other-faction scum to block, as well.

Just ISO'd Nexus, and he did mention having Raivann near the top of his scum list on D2, so it's a reasonable choice.

Yeah because of course he couldn't possibly lie about that...

...in which case, you're in a 1 v. 1 with him? And that's a bad thing...why?

OOH.

Also also also.

If Nexus is telling the truth, Raivann is now confirmed non-SK.

[Twilight Sparkle]

@TS - I thought the whole point of the morse code was to allow claims to happen during the wedding - what's the difference of allowing them then or now? Just the time?

Yes, claims to happen

if the target was at L-1 and needed to save himself

. As well as for people not to discuss the claims.

@TS - why would we not use claims like that now. Seriously, what if Raivann is scum and sat with scum buddies? Why are we going to go through that huge, huge amount of trouble when he could just claim out loud now and everyone could discuss it since he's a leading suspect.

My town read on Shadow has slowly been spiralling further and further down the drain. And my scum read of Thor has gone...up the drain...if that makes any sense. Because...down the drain means I'm losing it, and...I'm abandoning this metaphor.

The whole point is that people can discuss it anyway--both openly with their table and using the code with everyone else. Really, it's not THAT tedious to use with copy + paste, Replace All and a word document open, if you just post your table's general conclusions. Besides, I somehow doubt highly that Faraday would assign all the scum to the same table (never mind that there are barely any scum left, anyway). That destroys the whole mole aspect of it.

Also, why the fuck did Nexus have to claim? No, really. Why the fuck? He wasn't even the leading wagon. That's not how it works. "Hey, guys. People suspect you. Why don't you tell us your role?" At one point on D2 we were the leading lynch, so Twilight Sparkle was obviously remiss in not claiming unprompted then. And imagine if Raivann had claimed first at L-1 and revealed something that contradicted Nexus' role.

The good news of this mess is that Nexus now looks significantly more townish.

Benmage, if you're voting Zdenek, and are actually thinking of

governing

Raiv, why the hell do you even want a claim from him?

I have stuff to say about Zdenek (short version, this is a terrible wagon, everyone stop basing your vote 100% on whether you think a roleclaim is statistically more likely to be town, scum, or third party, and start actually scumhunting and making cases, and I want to do a 180 and white-knight Zdenek now), but I have to get ready now, so I'll save it for later.

(Currently discussing with Sotty if we should move our vote. We're undecided the best place for it as of now. Still haven't reread MoI to look for potential connections.)

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

EBWOP: "As well as for people not to discuss the claims" should have been "as well as for people to have a chance to discuss the claims even after the wedding started."

[Twilight Sparkle]

Insights- Ya'll should start lynching Starks. I would start with TS, then lynch Thor. Do as Magua says. And Hopefully DGB is telling the truth.

Nexus (2) Magua, Raivann

[Twilight Sparkle]

TS, regarding the first two quotes. In the first you say that MoI's "suspicions have a logical townie-like progression," and that his reasoning for his suspicion "reads as genuine." Then in the second post you say that you have reservations about him "the size of a small continent" and that each of his posts "raises yet another alarm bell." If a player about whom I felt like that was suspicious of me, I would not be alright with that player's vote or think that their suspicion reads as genuine, and I don't really see how it is possible. Their suspicion itself would be raising alarm bells. Frankly, the fact that you are asking me about this seems scummy because it seems so clear to me that I feel you are feigning incomprehension.

Okay... Well in your original post you credited MoI with the second quote, not TS and seeing I wasn't the hydra head that wrote that it didn't initially register. After doing a little research you have me in the first TS quote, then Mina when she was prepping for the case on you.

I'll just say that reads change, especially in a hydra. MoI was one of the players that we all found hard to reach an agreement. I'll also say I disagree with you that we were never a viable lynch yesterday, but there is little point arguing in circles about that.

Can someone in the TS hydra explain "white-knight-ing"?

Defending basically. Riding in on a white

horse

pony to sweep the poor attacked player away from all the meanies who would besmirch their “good” name.

~Sotty

[Twilight Sparkle]

Fuck, I'd remembered that the wedding was supposed to start sometime on Tuesday tomorrow--not midnight on the dot in UTC. Didn't have any time for Mafia over the weekend, and tonight was going to be my reread-MoI-and-break-down-his-ISO-while-wall-posting-like-hell night.

Before the wedding starts, is there anyone who doesn't understand the code in this post (as well as the correction in this post? I will translate for my table, if necessary. Now's the last time to say anything.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Nexus (1) Raivann,

[Twilight Sparkle]

And last thoughts:

-Just ISO'd xvart (it's always a courtesy to dead people to reread them). His suspects were Raivann, Setael, and Bunnylover, and he also agreed with Kast's list that included danakillsu and Zdenek. Upon a reread, he was playing an overall protown game and making lots of insightful observations, but with all the confirmed/widely trusted players out there, I suspect that there's scum among those three.

-Thor is scummy for a variety of reasons that I'll have to save for the QT because I don't have time for an epic case. He's usually capable of more than this as scum, though. Also, I'm not sure if all my suspects fit logically together as one team anymore.

-Zdenek, Sotty already explained that she was the one who had strong town vibes from his posts, while I was the one who suspected him (and it was really his ISOs 63 and 64, which came after Sotty's "town" post, that clued me into the fact that he didn't actually believe what he was arguing). If you actually read my case, I explicitly state this:

My (Mina’s) views on the two Mags have been the exact opposite of Sotty's

. MagUa seemed to have suspected us from the beginning of D1, and I saw where he was coming from re: his view that our vote was somewhat languishing during the beginning of the day. Furthermore, his feeling better about Thor because we weren't on the wagon shows that at the very least, he has a consistent view of the game. Your attacks on us, on the other hand, felt more as though you were capitalizing on Magua’s and Ben’s objections with us and trying to get a potential threat lynched early. I also think your “soft attacks" argument was bullshit used to justify turning every objection to your play around on us (hence why I’m so sceptical of Zdenek thinking that was the SELLING point for him on the Twilight Sparkle).

Unlike Sotty, I'd actually got a genuine vibe from his paranoia of us today. I've also started warming up to the case on Setael, in part for her reaction to Zdenek's claim (the one sticking point to me was her backing off after Feysal's softclaim). That said, with the exception of his Bunnylover point, he really chose the worst arguments to pick out in his Setael case--the TS one in particular was silly. Also, something that's been giving me second thoughts is that chesskid flipped VT...unlike Renly in the prequel, whose role was explicitly a lynch-triggerer. But whatever, I still don't want to lynch him today.

-DGB has been hovering around my suspect pool all game, but I dislike Magua wanting to lynch her SOLELY for the alignments of the players she's "cleared" (although I still lean town on MagU). Also, having played with her before, I know she says crap like being 100% certain of someone's alignment just for rhetorical effect.

-Since somehow I doubt anyone read my code post, the sample Morse code translates to this:

RAIVANN, WHY DID YOU SAY, "WHY ARE YOU STILL ASKING ME SILLY QUESTIONS ABOUT DEAD PLAYERS WHEN YOU'RE SOLD ON ME BEING SCUM?" THAT SOUNDS LIKE THE POV OF SOMEONE WHO BELIEVES WE GENUINELY THINK YOU'RE SCUM. I REMEMBER MAGNA DOING THE SAME THING TO ME IN RESPONSE TO MY ATTACK ON HIM: "YOU'RE OBVSCUM, BUT YOU'RE SUFFERING FROM CONFIRMATION BIAS AND DELUDING YOURSELF INTO THINKING EVERYTHING I'M DOING IS SCUMMY."

And I'm debating if I should say everything I'm thinking about Raivann (he's still a good lynch, but to be honest, I'm no longer convinced beyond a doubt that he's scum). I will say in Raivann's defence that for the roleblocker to have successfully stopped a kill N1, he would have to be on a scumteam with MoI and diddin.

Preview-edit: Raivann, I could link to about twenty posts from

A Clash of Kings

alone in which Town-Mina "dropped F-bombs," but you're not worth the effort.

-Benmage? Why did you ignore this:

Benmage, if you're voting Zdenek, and are actually thinking of governing Raiv, why the hell do you even want a claim from him?

and immediately vote Raivann?

Also, did you answer why you got mad at LMP for vigging chesskid after his softclaim when you'd been the one pushing him to do it? Can't find it in your ISO.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Hey TS.
Explanations of the morse-code thing would be GREAT.

Also, I think it'd be a worthy idea to try and convey the neighborhoods too. Not top priority, but if we could do that it might be helpful.

Ack, seven minutes left, but what part in particular don't you understand?

To recap, copy and paste whatever it is you want to write in the Morse Code Translator. Morse code expresses all letters and characters in long (-) and short (.) sounds, as well as a slash for sentence breaks.

- = VOTE: MagnaofIllusion
. = UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion
/ = VOTE: Eddard Stark

You can just do find and replace in a word document (although remember to replace the /s first, or else it'll remove them from the vote tags), and then post the coded message in the thread.

To translate, just repeat the process in reverse (replace the vote tags with /s, -s, and .s, and then translate them back to English with the translator I linked to.

p-edit: Shadow, what do you mean, "don't worry about it"? Why, because it's useless, or because it's obvious? I don't want someone to use lack of knowledge of the code as an excuse to do anything antitown.

And VOTE: Raivann, just in case.

[Twilight Sparkle]

UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion

[Twilight Sparkle]

UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion

[Twilight Sparkle]

Spoiler:

UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion

[Twilight Sparkle]

VOTE: Raivann

[Twilight Sparkle]

VOTE: Mina

Spoiler: Vote: Thor665

UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion VOTE: Eddard Stark UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion UNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusionUNVOTE: MagnaofIllusion

Spoiler: Vote: Raivann

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UNVOTE:
VOTE: Raivann

[Twilight Sparkle]

Haven't got a chance to talk with the other ponies yet (my bad, mostly - had car trouble getting down to Nebraska.)

I think massclaim is a fantastic idea. We can figure out what to do with zdenek post-massclaim.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Okay, hito's "massclaim is fantastic" makes me want a massclaim less. I'll claim if it means we DON'T massclaim. This is bollocks. We're not massclaiming just for teh lulz.

I'm not advocating it for the "lulz".

Let's review:

Pros of massclaiming: more information, can direct PRs
Cons of massclaim: tells scum who to kill/RB

We have too many floaty, kinda-confirmed types. Let's get the confirms on the table. That'll give us a glut of confirmed townies that the scum can't all shoot at once. We get to have a town voting bloc by day and directed PR's by night. What is the penalty of massclaiming here? Are you seriously suggesting that scum are pining for want of good nk targets right now?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Hang on, the jury is out on massclaiming. This pony personally thinks we should wait until tomorrow, but hito is trying to sway me on AIM toward it.

Anyway:

Town

LMP
Cow (the scum dayvig case is utterly ridiculous--if I had such a thankless posting restriction, I'd probably be coasting a bit as well)
Shadow
Locke
Benmage
Andrius
Nexus

I'd rather not elaborate on all these reads, but I can write a paragraph on why each of these people is very unlikely to be Stark, if someone pushes me.

Lol-obvSK

(both because of Nexus' roleblock and because of his horribad)
Zdenek

The Rest

(3/7 scum?)
Magua
danakillsu
popsofctown
Bunnylover
DGB
Thor
Setael

I made a big case on Thor in the wedding QT (although much of it hinged on his being Raivann's buddy), because some of his stances and contradictions this game, but now that it's almost certainly one scumteam, I'm worried the connections might not fit. So today I'm going to go into fullblown Wall Post Mode. My plan is to reread diddin/MoI/Xtoxm in search of connections, and then look at each of these seven players as objectively and in as much detail as possible. We will cast our vote for one of them afterward.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

pops: my favourite book is

A Storm of Swords

.

Now I have a question for you.

Who do you think is scum, other than Zdenek?

No, seriously.

Every single one of your opinions this game, since you've replaced in, can be summarized as:

1) OMG, Feysal is SOOOOOO obvtown!11!!! I'm telling you this after he was already lynched just so you can all marvel at my townie frustration and scumhunting prowess, even though I won't tell you WHY he was obvtown. You guys are all idiots for lynching him.

2) I haven't reread anything, but judging from the last page, Zdenek is TOTALLY lying about his role! Let me devote posts and posts to debunking his claim, because he's the SK!

3)

OKs although I am clearly not capable of conceding the last word on zdenek, the lynch hasn't been practical for a while, I've just been arguing. unvote, vote Nexus for now. I read all his really scummy stuff earlier, I can't remember what it was though. But 90% of what Magua says makes bunches of sense so I'm just gonna proxy my vote at him.

(Never mind that were it not for GreyICE's vitriolic interactions with MoI, that one quote alone would be enough to earn my vote--particularly considering that's your only suspect other than Zdenek you've mentioned all game, aside from hopping on the Raivann wagon after the wedding.)

The rest is all theory/set-up discussion.

At the time, I'd thought your arguments against Zdenek were extremely weak, but now that Zdenek is almost certainly the SK, props on nailing him. But, um, do you have any thoughts on who's

Mafia

?

Also, whatever happened to this:

This isn't my catchup post, my catchup post will have the puddle of text I'm keeping in notepad, and will come after I finish my reread. Which I need to finish in a week. Lovely.

So, where's your catch-up post? It doesn't even need to be a wall like Andrius'. At the very least, how about a list of reads on every player in the game?

Thor, why did you tell Andrius he "owed us better" for his catch-up post, but not comment on pops' slow start to the game?

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

(That said, I agree with pops' arguments against Zdenek--and I meant to say "Zdenek's horribad reactions to the one death this morning" in my first post. But at this point, it's very off that he has lots and lots to say about a likely SK who's being roleblocked every night to death, but has provided no other suspects.)

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Okay, I can't quote the exact AIM log, but here is my case for massclaim in a nutshell: unless the scum are absolutely moronic, they'll be able to shoot PRs the next two nights. Our PRs are just too obvious. SO, with that being true, massclaim is basically "lets confirm a bunch of townies for free." What do scum get out of this? A slightly smarter RB, if they have one. What do we get? A giant confirmed bloc to start cutting through this game, and coordinated PR's. Who wants to tell me that bargain favors scum?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

A counterpoint:

There was no Stark kill on N1 (unless they targeted chesskid for the lulz). Raivann flipped town. Unless the scum inexplicably tried to take out Zdenek, there is a doctor/protector role out there. As long as he's able to, scum are forced to make suboptimal kills and avoid targeting obvtown/confirmed players. I see no reason not to wait until D5 to massclaim (unless it's to give scum less time to plan).

But I'll save the rest of the bickering for AIM, because everyone hates schizophrenic hydras.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

preview-edit: No, seriously. I am so confused by the hypocop fiasco. I'd thought it was just bluster. If DGB is gambiting out of overconfidence in her read, pissed off will not begin to describe me. And although I've been uneasy with the slot since GreyICE flipped scum in BotW, some of the D1 interactions I'm reading now make pops close to certainly a non-Stark (more on that later). But anyway, I'm going to post this, because regardless of his alignment, pops could use a fire under his ass.

Is there anyone here who's familiar with pops' town and scum meta? Is this par for the course for him?

Your slot is a rather close second, iff you must know. All the ponies posting this game has seemed like it's about disagreeing with people, which is game related, but

sometimes you need to see someone no one else sees and make a case and be a townie

. I don't need a burden of proficiency fallacy to see something's wrong.

Okay, no. You are not going to get away with this.

Never mind that we made a case on Raivann (although lots of people suspected him), mini-cases on MoI and Thor, and called people like Magua on aspects of their play. (This isn't me trying to say, "Look how townie we are for scumhunting!" It's proving that you're talking out of your ass.)

WHAT THE FUCK DO YOU CALL THIS?

No one had looked sideways at Zdenek until we wrote that novel that spearheaded a wagon on him. How is that not "seeing something no one else sees and making a case"? Whether or not you agree with that case or think it was town-motivated, the simple fact that you missed something so ginormous means that you're either twisting the facts to prove a point, or you actually cheated and never really read the thread all that closely after replacing in.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt for about two minutes. Maybe you're just having trouble expressing yourself. So try it again. Why don't you give specific examples of quotes from Twilight Sparkle that you think were just us disagreeing with people rather than giving our own observations? Why don't you see what no one else sees in our play, be a townie, and make a case on us?

pops, do you have your notes from catching up? The ones you said you were making in your first post of the game?

What are your reads? Why don't you sort players into Town, Neutral, and Scum, at the very least? Also, do you still suspect Nexus? I mean, since you said you'd found scummy stuff from her, although you couldn't remember what? Do you still want to lynch DGB for no other reason than to see if she's telling the truth about her hypocop?

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Going to ISO flipped scum before writing cases, so as to approach them with no preconceptions of who's most likely guilty.

I'm cheating and doing by far the easiest one first. Odds are I'll give up halfway through diddin. I don't even want to begin processing MoI's walls. ;_; But oddly, I think this one might be more useful than a MoI analysis would be, both because he's a weaker player and because the signal-to-noise ratio is higher:

Xtoxm

This will virtually quote all his content, because it's not like there's much to work with.

On the whole, liking GreyICE. But if we want to simply remove the power from the game (which i'm thinking is probably the best option), then we just raise the person who is being lynched today, after a concensus has been made. The power cannot be used on oneself.

Hi DGB!

I am going to say something crazy, although Sotty agrees with me as well. (I probably should have waited for pops to respond to my last post before revealing this, but I'm tired and impatient.)

This almost confirms GreyICE/pops as town (or at the very least, non-Stark).

No, seriously.

I have a rule of thumb that scumbuddies are LESS likely to say something positive about a teammate unprompted. Sure, sometimes they vaguely defend a player under heat so as to justify why they aren't moving their vote there, and sometimes they put them in the town category to blend them in. But that's not how these posts feel. This is a guy who has posted four one-liners. But he's decided to devote all his breath to saying, "My only opinion of the game is wow, look how smart my scumbuddy is." This reads like scum buddying up to a townie.

Maybe

I'd buy that he was trying to take GI's side when people were divided on him (although at this point, popular opinion was already swaying in favour of GreyICE), but this trend continues in later posts:

Sad to see GreyICE and DGB go like that, but I can't blame either of them.

I've read more of the thread and my opinions have changed somewhat.

Why are you calling GreyICE scum? That's part of why I voted Xvart.

(Interestingly, that last one was in response to his scumbuddy MoI. He treats MoI very differently from GreyICE.)

Now I know LMP attacked Feysal for doing to Xtoxm essentially the same thing Xtox did to GreyICE (although in this case, Xtoxm openly sheeps Grey multiple times). But Feysal flipped town. My tell has still not been proven wrong.

I will treat the "Hi, DGB" as null either way. DGB, have you ever played with Xtoxm before?

-In his second post is the list that everyone and their mothers made a big deal about (probably because it was the only thing that stood out in that post):

Townly
GreyICE
Magua
Twighlight
Chesskid
Feysal
Zoraster

Scummy
Mikujin
Benmage
Shadow

Will get back to this list when I do MoI's posts.

This is somewhat self-serving when I'm on that town list, but I was never fond of the idea that there has to be at least one scum in each list. If anything, I'd say there's at most one player in each list who's scum, but more likely 0-1 scum overall. But given that Magua and Miku are the only non-cleared players on either list, anyway... (Based on their posts in the wedding thread, Benmage and Shadow are both town.)

Given that he doesn't vote in this post despite having scumreads, I'm neutral on whether his listing Mikujin as a scum read is distancing or attacking a townie. It's such a short scumlist that I don't know if he'd mention his buddies on it.

Conclusions

:

1) popsofctown is not a Stark.
2) pops and Magua are not Starks together (assuming I'm inexplicably wrong about 1).
3) I'd guess only one of Magua and Setael are scum, but it's really not conclusive.

Now if only the other two could be this short.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

MINA maybe jack of some trades roleblocked or doc'd the kill.

At this point...seeing a dead Kast. I am ready for a full claim. A doc would've/should've doc'd Kast...Even over my awseomeself...(well maybe not)

Even if we don't know 100% if there's a living doc, scum have to act as though there is one. Otherwise, they risk botching another kill.

And I don't even know if I'd have protected Kast. Not to feed Benmage's ego some more, but he'd possibly be a better target.

Also, why should you start? If there is a massclaim, you should go last, because other people know your role anyway.

(I'm still arguing about this with hito. I still think we will not confirm any more "semi-confirmed" players by knowing "X player with a vig kill" also has a cool flavour and conditions to his role. I'd be okay with the top lynches claiming. But we'll get back to you when we make up our minds.)

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Nice job taking initiative (and sparing me the continued argument with Mina). Let's ride the tempo train all the way to victory.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Nice job taking initiative (and sparing me the continued argument with Mina). Let's ride the tempo train all the way to victory.

-hito

This is the first time all game I've been tempted to use a pony reaction picture.

Mind you, I didn't realize you had pops as confirmed as well (although goddamn it, that means my whole Xtoxm analysis was for nothing).

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Okay, I think todays lynch should work thusly:

• Everyone unvotes.
  
• Benmage picks todays lynch by being first on their wagon. We'll call this person A.
  
• Everyone else votes on scumbags B and C - their next two likely scum.
  
• We demand that A chose B as their champion.
  
• Benmage picks C as his champion.
  
• If A does not choose B, we all vote for C to die and lynch A tomorrow.
  
• If A choses B, we all vote for B and get the double-lynch.

That plan check out with everyone?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Bunnylover, who were your targets on N1, N2 and N3? (Particularly N1.)

[Twilight Sparkle]

...Um, thanks but no thanks on the protect . I could have told you we weren't going to eat a knife wound.

@Twilight Sparkle:

Wonderful. You've outlined my plan from a few pages back. =P

@Bunnylover:

Who *did* you protect N1/N2, especially N1?

Claim: Walder Frey.

1 shot vigilante.

I shot diddin N1.

Hmm.

Hmm

.

I have a strange question for you.

Magua, what's your read on us? (Us being Twilight Sparkle.)

No, I'm not just conceited. Did you come to any new revelations, recently?

Also, I don't think you ever answered our question about whether your vote for Nexus on D2 was a deliberate trap to lead people off our wagon.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Andrius, did you have a modconfirm of Benmage's alignment?

[Twilight Sparkle]

OH MAN.

I AM AWESOME.

I CALLED IT. D1. ASK HITO. AND BENMAGE IN THE WEDDING THREAD. FROM THIS POST:

Hi everyone. I've come to the unfortunate conclusion that I won't be able to catch up with this game. I am simply too snowed under right now, and I'd rather someone else take my spot.

@Mod: I regretfully request replacement

Good luck everyone, especially DGB, and go town!

Scumread D1. Scumread D2. When I saw that you weren't going to get lynched, I softclaimed pretty hard that I was going to shoot you N2, expecting that if you were mafia I would die and if you weren't I would live. Magna being a jailkeeper messed with that plan, so I just kept it up another day.

TBH, the gambit flew way over my head. I thought you were softclaiming that you tracked MoI to me or something similar, and were going to use some odd power to confirm my alignment once and for all. And my next post was going to be hammering you for changing your claim. But that explanation makes sense.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Andrius, I actually believe that all three of Magua/LMP/Cow could conceivably be town, because there were multiple town-aligned vig abilities in ACoK.

But I want to hear the last of the massclaims before I point something out. No one lynch before everyone claims.

Oh nevermind I found their claim.

For the record, I never explicitly claimed in the QT (I said we were Loras Tyrell, but had nothing informative to reveal about our role--hoping maybe they'd think I was being evasive and had a role it would only harm the town for me to reveal). But Benmage saw right through me, so since the cat is out of the bag, I'll confirm that we're VT.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

I agree that LL is near town, since he only really makes sense as town or SK, and zdenek looks awfully like an sk right now. (For the record, I *can* see a lyncher against a scumbag - but I don't see Gregor Clegane being that scumbag.)

I'm starting to think that modconfirm via PM could be a scum publisher or something...? Ben, you actually got the message, how plausible do you see that as being? With a triple masonry this town is starting to look awfully stacked. There could be a scum somewhere in confirmtown.

Also, Ben, remebmer that this is what kast actually said about danakillsu:

N1 I investigated Dana and he has no role-name, meaning he is either

a Goon

, a VT, or investigation immune.

Not confirmed town. Actually I'd put him as pretty likely scum now that the chips have fallen.

@TS - as long as you're outsourcing you total opinion today to Ben, how about you just throw out your top 2 scumspects or so yourself?

Oh boo fucking hoo we're letting the confirmed townie run the massclaim and dictate a lynch. You were in SAIII, me giving authority to Ben when he's town and not off his rocker isn't without precedent.

Personal top two scumsuspects are Setael and danakillsu. Sadly it's not that likely they're scum together, but very likely one of them is scum. An ideal double-lynch.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

@TS - as long as you're outsourcing you total opinion today to Ben, how about you just throw out your top 2 scumspects or so yourself?

Since your contribution thus far is "Thor should be playing better"
Thor is scum.
Has is scum.

I know you're at least 50% wrong with inside information and also overlooking how often I've been right this game. So, you're hating too, amirite?

What the hell is with your attitude?

I got town vibes from your immediately claiming VT, but you're acting more like trapped irritated scum than like town who knows the game is in the bag even if he gets lynched.

I'm going to bet $10 and say that xvart vigged Magna N2, by the way.

Okay, I was going to shut up about this until after massclaim, but ISO xvart. There is no way in hell he vigged MoI. He doesn't make a single negative point about him past one question in post two of D1. He even agrees with Kast's lynch list that doesn't include MoI.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Am I just imagining that Bunnylover asked about LMP sending the kill as well?

Shadow: do you have any abilities aside from table shuffling that it would help the town for you to claim?

pops: were you responsible for modconfirming yourself to DGB and Benmage? Preview edit: Never mind, you can wait on claiming it.

Magua: Setael still hasn't claimed. And LMP hasn't fullclaimed.

See, exact kind of thing I'm talking about. These aggressive questions. If I'm scummy for not having presented any of these things, present it in a declarative sentence and put a vote with it. If I'm not, lose the edge when you're asking about them. You behave like you don't yet have the evidence to know I'm not on your team, but are ready to behave as such already, which could only be revealed to you by pm. It occurs to me again that this could be a playstyle thing, particularly after the reread you sparked revealed Mina's name at the bottom of the majority of several posts I'd lumped with the same avatar, but a meta read is gonna wait until you're in lynch crosshairs, it's a lot of work.

I'm not going to get into a huge back-and-forth, since you've just been confirmed town, but I disagree with your suggested approach. When I'm town, I like to ask lots and lots of aggressive questions and pressure people on every single detail of their posts. If they're town, it'll shine through when I see more of their thought processes; if they're scum, they're more likely to slip up when forced to explain themselves.

However, I'm not so good at reaching the right conclusions with the information I draw, so I'm constantly analyzing and reevaluating. I don't see the game in black and white. I can't just go, "X has committed one minor scumtell, so I'm going to vote him and proceed to push his lynch." (Were I alone, the Zdenek case probably would have been a lot more indecisive and less of a formal case, for example.) I find it much more fruitful to force my suspect to justify himself and poke at everything that's out of place until it snowballs into something more.

Also, why didn't I make a declarative statement and vote you? Because although you were in my suspect pool, I wasn't actually all that convinced you were scum. One aspect of your play was scummy, but given GreyICE's interactions with MoI, you were less likely Stark. Hell, while I was writing that post, I realized you were almost certainly not a Stark based on your play. But I wanted to put some pressure on you and draw more content from your slot.

Oh, and I disagree with the philosophy that you should keep most of your reads hidden, because if your one top scum read is wrong, you give the town no information, but I'll leave that for another thread.

</theory rant>

(And also, if you only read the first half of the game, your suspicions make sense, because our play sucked donkey balls on D1 and part one of D2. :/)

I'm going to bed now. I don't even know if I should post my case on Thor (Benmage and Shadow have seen it) or do any connections analysis, simply because the game is so broken wide open. Good news: suspect pool has been narrowed to Thor, Setael, Zdenek, and maybe dana and Magua (since I strongly believe there's a SK).

By the way, something in favour of Setael being scum: MoI said that some of my interactions with Mikujin looked like "soft distancing." It's a classic move to link players to your scumbuddies before a flip (because if Miku flips scum, I look bad, but if I flip town, the distancing accusation evaporates).

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

I still haven't reread diddin (and only briefly skimmed through MoI), and this head at least won't have time to write any monstrosities until Friday. But quick comments:

1) Why do I always seem to be in the PoE reject pile instead of the confirmed pool whenever there's an assembly line of lynches? I wish I could change places with xvart--be it roles, or presence or absence of a pulse.

2) I don't believe that the scumteam has no goons; for that reason, Setael or Thor flipping a scum PR as opposed to goon would make me MORE suspicious of dana. (Otherwise, what's the point of giving the role cop VT/goon results?) That said, I have no reason to suspect dana beyond low activity and PoE. And his suggesting he sacrifice himself read as townish.

3) Since I am 95% sure that there is either a SK or a second scum team, Nexus should RB Zdenek again to see what happens. At this point, the town has to lynch the "others" before the scum can take out the confirmeds, so stopping a second kill makes all the difference.

4) Just a thought. There are situations in which it's better to take advantage of a possible double lynch and vote out a non-Thor suspect with Setael (who would be confirmed scum in this case) than Thor alone (whose alignment would be unknown). Otherwise, I'm fine with the plan.

5) So, no last reads or anything, Setael? Who do you think is scum if not Thor? Weren't you suspicious of him for "misrepping" you in the QT yesterday? What changed your mind?

6) @Magua:

Also, I believe the remaining scum are in the Vanilla claimees and the 1shot Vig claimees.
Oh, and Zdenek is the SK.

If LynchMePls is a 1-shot CPR doc, then that clears Zdenek of being the SK *or* scum. Unless you think Zdenek-SK-scum would say, "I become bulletproof if Tyrion dies. Chesskid has claimed Tyrion. I'm going to not kill him." Remember, LMP's claim means that *no one else tried to kill Chesskid N1*.

I was in the camp that believed Zdenek's claim at first, but I've changed my mind based on his play today and on PoE. One possibility is that Zdenek is scum who becomes bulletproof under some other circumstances (say, another character dies), and tried to come up with another.

And you've got a real problem with me being scum, because then who shot diddin?

Who do you think shot MagnaofIllusion?

I noticed you haven't commented on this:

Okay, I was going to shut up about this until after massclaim, but ISO xvart. There is no way in hell he vigged MoI. He doesn't make a single negative point about him past one question in post two of D1. He even agrees with Kast's lynch list that doesn't include MoI.

Go on. ISO xvart. Come back and tell me with a straight face that if xvart had a one-shot kill related to his Jack of Some Trades ability, he'd use it on MoI of all people on N2, over Raivann, danakillsu, Bunnylover, Zdenek, etc...

So do you agree or disagree with this conclusion?

Because I can see a blatant scum agenda behind insisting that there's no SK, so therefore you're confirmed and no one should suspect you.

Also, why do you have LMP as fifth on your suspect list when you're the one saying there are only two factions? Do you think chesskid was the Stark kill?

Oh, and another thing. Your claim was just "Claim: 1-shot vig." You didn't even gloat at having taken out a baddie.

Can you give us full flavour for your role? Can you go in-depth into why you decided to shoot diddin when you did (yes, I know you suspected him, but your full thought process)? Any breadcrumbs on D1 and D2? Any on D3/4 other than the jailkeeper comment?

And finally, I still want an answer to this post. Because seriously, "I voted Nexus to see if anyone would complain that I moved my vote from you, but since they didn't, you're scum" is pretty bad.

There's something else I want to ask you, but I'm waiting on answers to these questions, first.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Eddard Stark: is the order in which the deaths appear (e.g., Nexus coming first) relevant?

Disclaimer: I haven't spoken to the other ponies since challenge-time, so this post is 100% Mina.

I'd started a response to Magua on D4 before rushing out to work, but when I got back, the thread had already been locked. Now I'm debating whether I should post what I had written once I finish. Much of it isn't relevant today, because it was mostly blasting him for arguing there's no SK. But the fact that his logic was so contorted in the first place is a point against him.

I'm glad that other people are seeing what I did, but question to all those who think Setael and Magua are scumbuddies. Why didn't you vote for Setael AND Magua to lose the challenge, and just lynch Thor today?

Actually, wait. No one hammer yet. I'd be interested in knowing if anyone would openly admit to having defied the plan.

Setael is probably scum with Magua.

I couldn't agree more.

Actually, my theory is that Magua is the SK. Why? Aside from that I've found his interactions re: the existence of an SK and the execution of his claim very phony, I think it's likely Nexus RB'd Zdenek again, given he followed orders last time (perhaps Kast was double-killed on N3, or the SK targeted Twilight Sparkle). Also, I can believe Magua as diddin's killer, and some of his scumhunting has felt genuine. He's definitely played a great game if he's group scum.

This is my personal list:

Benmage
DrippingGoofball
Bunnylover
popsofctown
Hasdgfas

Shadow1psc
Locke Lamora
LynchMePls (if Magua flips town, I would drop him to the bottom list)

Twilight Sparkle (Not sure where to put us, because we're town, but even I think we should go before LYLO)

danakillsu
Zdenek
Magua

Setael

Have to go, but more coming later.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Okay, not to whine, but we are not at all in a good position anymore.

Let's say there were six Starks and one SK at the outset (if there were five Starks, we're not in as much trouble). That means it's 7-2-1 right now.

If we lynch the SK, then we're at 7-2. I did the math, and that only leaves us one allowable mislynch.

If we lynch Mafia, then we're at 7-1-1. The next day, we are in a 5-1-1, with not a single mislynch allowed.

If we lynch town today, then we're at 6-2-1. If the SK is stupid and tries to take out a townie, then we're at 4-2-1. In that case, we lose even if we lynch Mafia tomorrow. If we lynch town, the SK is endgamed, and the Mafia win.

In other words, we have 0-1 mislynches left for the entire game (depending on whether we hit Mafia or the SK first).

Conclusion: massclaiming as early as we did (as well as pressuring someone like Nexus who wasn't even going to be lynched) was a fucking terrible idea (because I'm pretty sure Andrius, DGB, Bunnylover and Nexus would have all been alive right now otherwise), I was right and hito and Benmage were wrong, and I am going to link to this game the next time anyone bitches about how it's soooooo important that you claim your roles the moment you come under the slightest bit of suspicion for the "information."

Also, why the fuck did people vote for Thor to die over Setael AND Magua (to have immediate flips on the latter two as well as get a double lynch), if they thought both were scum, anyway?

Also also, give me a power role next time.

Also also also, can we please not end this day in twenty-four hours again?

Also also also also,

SK, ARE YOU PAYING ATTENTION? IF WE MISLYNCH TODAY, YOU LOSE THE GAME UNLESS YOU TAKE OUT SCUM TONIGHT.

I think the safest bet is Zdenek--Setael flipping "Modified" makes Zdenek's role look much more like it's scum-aligned. But the thing is, I don't think he's the SK anymore, simply because I don't see Nexus not blocking him on N5. And clearly the optimal move is to aim for the SK, first. Hang on, vote pending.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

...

hito, please post a reaction picture to that.

[Twilight Sparkle]

vote: Bunnylover

You've played scummy all game and you weren't even on the Setael wagon. Bad bunny.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Actually, snarky comments, even if you don't treat dana's snafu as a towntell, he's very likely town. Still haven't ISO'd Setael, but dana's side in their interactions was pretty relentless. He basically tunnels on Setael all game, and it doesn't really feel like distancing. And unlike LMP, I really didn't think there was anything that bad about dana's vote for Zdenek; it wasn't brilliant reasoning, but I see it as a very townish (albeit insecure) thought process to--when choosing between two lynch options--vote the one who thinks differently from you. I think LMP making a huge deal about "OMG THE INCONSISTENCY BECAUSE YOU DON'T THINK BENMAGE IS SCUM" was bad. I see some sloppiness in dana's ISO, but I don't particularly get the impression that he's pushing a scum agenda.

And Kast's investigation makes danakillsu really unlikely to be SK. So I'm removing him from my suspect pool.

Except I am very confused. Believe it or not, we actually aren't scum. No, seriously. We're not. So who the fuck is left? Zdenek (who did attack diddin early on, although that and his MoI attack

could

have been distancing)? Maybe Magua (whose outrage at being called Stark does feel like he's SK at worst)? LMP (who has been wrong about almost everything all game, but whose tunneling on Feysal and fishing for a NK felt really genuine)? LL as the SK (his play has been very lacklustre this game, but it would be semi-bastard modding giving he has a lyncher with his name confirmed)? Shadow, who'd have been inexplicably given a wedding-planner ability as scum? (Maybe with a restriction that he couldn't put all his scumbuddies together, but his posts seemed very genuine in the wedding QT.)

Also, can I just say again what a terrible idea massclaiming was? No, seriously. As was Benmage fucking announcing in the thread, "Bunnylover, PROTECT MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!" and giving the scum pointers on which confirmed player to take out.

GTG now. Tempted to vote Zdenek, because I'm pretty sure he's some flavour of scum (for the record, if he flips Stark, I'm declaring ourselves confirmed non-Stark based on how D2 went down), but aah, it might be better to gamble on there being six Starks and hitting the SK today. I really want to take things slow right now.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Locke, who do you think is scum?

[Twilight Sparkle]

Zdenek, can you tell us if you're Mafia or the SK, please? And who your buddy is, on the "off chance" that you have one?

Because you really, really suck at scum. No, seriously. You are godawful at this. I hate myself for having switched to Feysal on D2 right now.

Actually, thank you so much for that. "Off chance." It was really sweet of you.

VOTE: ZdenekI've been doing a lot of rereading and discussing behind the scenes over the past few days, but I haven't got a chance to put a big post together.

However, I did a scenario. I'd

It really doesn't matter if there are one or two Mafia remaining...

as long as we take out the other scum tomorrow

.

And not only is the fifth scum is certainly Zdenek, but the sixth one (if there is one) is LynchMePls. (Disclaimer: LMP is last on my list of ISOs.) In fact, I'd almost be willing to call Zdenek and LMP as the Starks, and Locke as the SK based on tha.

Locke? LMP? Both of you seem to be arguing that danakillsu is Stark--the former as Magua's buddy (do you think Magua was bussing diddin and Setael, out of curiosity?), the latter as Zdenek's. But do you think that dana's interactions with Setael

Also, LMP, why are you voting Zdenek if
(After Magua's recent posts, I'm pretty convinced that he's not Stark. That said, I

An open letter to the Serial Killer:

Dear psychopathic bastard,

We greatly appreciate your help in taking out. Then you decided to be. Bastard. So much for letting you win in endgame.

Now let's take a look at things.

We lynch Zdenek and he flips town.

1)

Conclusion: if Zdenek flips town, you should be aiming for scum

Spoiler: Spoilers for this post

Twilight Sparkle is probably not Stark, and also probably right about Zdenek. God, I feel so dirty.

[Twilight Sparkle]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

Um...um...

I'm still getting used to my new laptop, and...I...accidentally hit submit...when the post was like 15% done...and Faraday refuses to delete that....

Oh, dear God. That was embarrassing.

Can no one actually read the post above this one? (I can keep the Zdenek vote, but everything else is total gibberish.) I was going to flesh out all those points, but I was kind of writing out of order, and....

Eek. Um, hang on. I'm going to post a more coherent version of that later.

-too embarrassed to admit which pony this is.

[Twilight Sparkle]

*Don't drink and post. You may embarass yourself.

That's it. Consider me /out for My Little Pony Mafia.

[Twilight Sparkle]

unvote

and to think, you all mocked me when I said we should throw governor away, even if it goes to conf. town

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

I'm supposed to leave for work right now, but I cannot keep myself from posting this first. I think you've just destroyed my morale for this game.

On D1, Benmage called us scum because we called you town but didn't raise you. hito explained it somewhat more diplomatically, but here's the honest truth of why I didn't.

I outright said in the QT, "I would rather that scum was hand than a town Benmage." Because I think you have the potential to utterly cripple town in ways that your standard mislynch fodder VI cannot. But even I never expected something as bad as this.

You are pathologically arrogant in a way that makes your Mafia play toxic. I use the word pathological because if this is not just an Internet persona but how you are in real life, then you are genuinely sick and need the help of a counsellor. Even if you don't have the slightest clue of what's going on, you would rather have a tiny scrap of power in a forum game than help your faction. Once you come to a decision in your mind, even if it's based on incomplete information or the wrong conclusion (which it usually is, because you are not as logical or bright as you think you are), you refuse to reevaluate and listen to explanations of why your decision might be suboptimal. Because that would mean not being the most powerful player in town.

And that's exactly why you used your power. Hey, remember that you had Zdenek as one of your top scum suspects? Nothing changed since then. But you are a pathetic little boy who wants to be the one calling the shots, and you were all sulky that you might die without getting a chance to govern someone and show you mean business. And furthermore, it had to be someone who EVERYONE wanted to lynch, so you could feel REALLY powerful.

I will give you that you can look very town, and that being confident and arrogant at the very least gets people to listen to you. And towns do often need someone to fill that niche...but only when that player has good scumhunting skills, intelligence, rationality, objectivity, and strategy.

And furthermore, you will not once apologize for what you have just done, because you are an odious human being. You will just go, "Man, I had [Insert Scum Player you mentioned something negative about on D3] pegged." You have never admitted you were in the wrong when you pulled shit like this in game after game.

And chances are that you have just singlehandedly lost the game for the town right now. You lost it when you decided to singlehandedly ask multiple people to claim their roles on D3 (ignoring a single reason for why you shouldn't), you lost it when you decided to out all the confirmed townies to the scum just to force a massclaim (rather than try to refute the reasons why we SHOULDN'T have one, or maybe think there was something you were missing), you lost it when you told the scum which confirmed townie was going to be protected just because you thought you were SOOOOOOO much more valuable to the town than DGB. But this is the last straw.

I don't have blacklists. But from now on, I will actively avoid games you are in, because I'm sick of your antics.

Zdenek was fucking obvscum by his reactions today. His only arguments in his defence were "I said something negative about three scum," and "Hey, you shouldn't be lynching me, but a SK, just in case there's a second Mafia." Did you see his fucking horrible reaction to Magua's posts? "Oh, I agree with him. Oh, I can't agree with him, because that rules me out as scum? Never mind, then." His posts have been completely wooden, and lack all conviction. He hasn't done any scumhunting whatsoever today. There is not a single player in this game who is even as close to as sure a bet as scum as Zdenek would have been.

Furthermore, by process of elimination, HE FUCKING HAD TO BE STARK. WITHOUT A DOUBT. Every other player in the game (with the exception of LMP, who is still much more unlikely) was cleared. I even did the analysis in the QT to work out if we could afford to lynch Mafia today if there were two survivors. It didn't make a difference, because we'd have the same number of lynches if we had two NKs tonight instead of one (due to the odd-even rule).

But you didn't actually notice all that, because you aren't that good a Mafia player. Or maybe you might have been a good Mafia player had you been willing to stop, read, and listen to the arguments of the people around you. Or maybe you did notice that, but it's exactly as I'd suspected: you don't care if town wins; you just want to be able to say you used your power once this game.

For the record, the fact that I'm posting this confirms me, because I know how stupid and blinded by your own cognitive biases you are. Right now you will be utterly convinced that I'm scum and push our lynch, because I SAID YOU'RE A TERRIBLE WORTHLESS EXCUSE FOR A MAFIA PLAYER, AND ONLY SCUM WOULD SAY YOU HAVE THE BRAIN OF A LUMP OF COAL, FOR HAHA, YOU ARE THE SMARTEST PLAYER IN THE GAME, AND CONFIRMED TOWN, SO YOUR JUDGMENT IS INFALLIBLE. In fact, you probably won't even believe it, but you're a bully who hates it when someone says he's wrong.

But town has lost anyway because of your ego, so I really don't care anymore. This is so unforgivable, and I've seen you pull these stunts in so many games that I'm not going to hold back. You have lost a game that town was almost certainly going to win. I desperately hoping this is a fucking wake-up call to you on why you should dramatically change the way you play Mafia. But you're too sick to change.

And I stand by everything written here, so this is 100% Mina, written without the input of hito or Sotty. Fuck, now I'm late for work.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Vote: Locke Lamora

[Twilight Sparkle]

also I've decided Magua is confirmed town because if he isn't town I officially don't even care anymore

[Twilight Sparkle]

Who was Nexus's N1 block and BL N1 protect?

[Twilight Sparkle]

Yeah, remember my theory waaay back when, that I could see the balance of "Hey sk, you're NK AND investigation immune!...but there's a lyncher out for your blood."

Scum leaving an SK alive makes sense when there are so many confirms and the scum is so off. They can count on the sk shooting confirms.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Scum would not know there was an SK N1.

Scum prioritized shooting xvart over hasdgfas or Locke Lamora N2. This could make sense if scum knew he was a PR -- a reason I was suspicious of Kast D3 -- but doesn't make a lot of sense otherwise.

I think you misunderstood me here. What I'm saying is that,

assuming

scum shot LL N1 and had their shot bounce off of his power armor, it makes sense that they wouldn't try to get him *lynched* because they were downtempo from D2 on and they could use all the kills they could get.

[Twilight Sparkle]

also it's not a pony and it's a little delayed, but here is a reaction picture re: Ben governoring Zdenek:



in terms of internal ponytalk: Mina gets a scum vibe on LMP's posts but he's not the sk (or he wouldn't have gambited claiming the kill d2.) So our plan is currently: lynch the sk (and can it be anyone but LL?), lynch zden, then probably LMP if the game is still going.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

How is not confirmed not bulletproof? Because zorasters PM had a stipulation for what happens if LL is nk'd? Is that the same thing as how any cop who's told their sanity isn't confirmed is guaranteed non-sane?

[Twilight Sparkle]

dude. The SK can't be LL. He already posted and proved why he can't be bulletproof. Lyncher out to get you+ no vest+ no partners+PR loaded scum+PR loaded town+large game doesn't add up to a fairly balanced SK, at all.

Let's break it down:

Lyncher out to get you

As I said before, I think having a lyncher on you is balanced if you have both immunities.

no vest

just proved why this isn't necessarily true (and my guess is that LL is inv-immune and nk immune)

no partners

this is also true for: every serial killer ever

PR loaded scum+PR loaded town+large game doesn't add up to a fairly balanced SK, at all.

IF you're nk immune and inv immune (or even just nk immune) the PRs do more to help you than hinder you. People who aren't you die quicker. And remember, SK win rates are NOT balanced against the town and scum. It's not supposed to be like, all three factions have equal chance of winning. sk win is supposed to be hard.

LL: You think we're scum or sk?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Sorry, this head has been distracted lately, and to be honest, I needed some time to cool down before posting in the thread again. hito and I have been discussing things on Skype, but we're kind of running around in circles.

Please, no one hammer any player soon. I have questions and comments about Magua, Locke Lamora, and LynchMePls (and am looking for scum meta from those players), but since I have to leave now, I'd rather get this out of the way first.

An open letter to the serial killer

Dear heartless psychopathic bastard,

So it was really sweet of you to take out MoI (and possibly diddin) for us. Kudos on your astute scumhunting skills (and/or lucky shots). But then you backstabbed us, and decided to shoot for confirmed townies instead.

But well done. Pat yourself on the back for being a thorn in the side of two factions. Now you should be careful not to paint yourself into a corner.

Let's look at a few recent theme games. SAIII: seven scum out of twenty-eight players, as well as the option for multiple players to become serial killers. MoCo, ignoring the seraphs: 5/21 + an SK. ACoK (which even Faraday has admitted was town-sided), a whopping nine scum overall (albeit from multiple factions) out of twenty-six players: more than a third of the game.

The meta on this site for single faction games is for 25% of the players to be Mafia, as well as an occasional SK or third-party. And this game has too many confirmed townies. Magua was the first person to even propose the "five Starks" theory, and his entire logic for it was "too many people look town."

That means there are probably two scum left alive.

Now, let's look at the math. Assume we mislynch today (becoming increasingly more likely). 2 scum, 1 SK, 6 town. Assume two confirmed town die tonight. 2 scum, 1 SK, 4 town.

Either: 1) We lynch Zdenek.

He flips Stark. Two townies die. That leaves one Stark, one SK, and two town alive the next day. It's Prisoner's dilemma, and town decides which scumteam wins. Obviously, this option is extremely risky, but read ahead to see what would happen even if we gambled on one scum and did. Instead, we're forced to try to hit the serial killer.

2) We aim for the SK, and lynch you.

Game over for you.

3) We aim for the SK, and hit a townie.

Two more townies die. We are now in a situation in which you're with two scum who can force night on you and endgame.

So firstly, if there's a mislynch today, it's in your interest to take out at least one scum. I'd have suggested taking out Zdenek, but I'd forgotten he was modified bulletproof. Furthermore, I don't think you'd be nice enough to take out such an inevitable lynch for us.

But a decent compromise shot would be someone in the Stark pool, but not in the SK pool, like LMP. After LMP's death (regardless of his flip), you could say, "See? There's only one Stark left (either because Zdenek was LMP's buddy or because there aren't enough survivors to fit the bill). Let's lynch Zdenek." That's another day for you to hide.

I suppose that if you'd rather shoot someone you think is more likely to flip Stark and therefore push us to lynch Zdenek instead, that's your choice. Or hey, if you feel like being a douchebag and shooting me in the face for trying to tell you what to do, I wouldn't take it personally. Honest.

Now, maybe you're smart and noticed I left something out.

"Mina, you forgot about my super-nifty NK immunity. If I'm left with two scum and just one townie, we go to night, and then I take out one of the Starks! Sure, the scum would just no-kill and force Prisoner's Dilemma, but I'm sure I'd win that."

...Dammit. You've got me. You lose if you're in a final three with two Starks, but you can easily make it to Prisoner's Dilemma.

There's just one problem.

Who do you think is going to vote for you to win in endgame?

If you do not get rid of scum tonight and the day after, then you are forced into a Prisoner's Dilemma situation at best. There is no way around it on D8, with one or two surviving townies.

That surviving townie has the power to vote no-lynch and let things take their natural course, or to help lynch you and give the victory to the Starks.

So here's my offer. If you fuck us over, we lose the ability to win. But we can still take the victory from beyond your grasp.

Call this elementary game theory. Sometimes, the best route to a goal isn't the shortest one. It's to make an agreement--an alliance--and plan toward a further endgame. There is precedence for players keeping to a bargain and making choices that seem suboptimal in the short term, either out of honour or out of thinking long-term--in

A Clash of Kings

, in

Mafia of the Chosen Ones

, etc.

So in conclusion, I want everyone in this town to agree to this.

If the serial killer kills someone other than LMP/danakillsu/Twilight Sparkle/Magua/Locke tonight (I won't even fuss over which one, so he can feel free to make whatever strategic choice he prefers), we let the Starks win in endgame.

(Obviously, town isn't held to this bargain if Twilight Sparkle is Stark or SK, because that would be a cheap ploy, but we're town, anyway.)

It is in your best short-term interest to take out a scum, anyway. But furthermore, we outnumber you, and you cannot win a prisoner's dilemma situation without the support of the last townie standing. Give us a reason to hand you a SK victory after the town has already lost.We have bargaining power that goes beyond a sheer voting bloc.

With love,

Mina

P.S.: as an addendum, I actually realized that this offer could extend to the Mafia as well. Zdenek, since the cat is out of the bag anyway, and you're bound to be lynched, you could always try to bribe us to let your buddy win in endgame by promising to kill someone in the suspect pool tonight. But the SK is probably bulletproof.

[Twilight Sparkle]

I lied. Actually, I do have more to say now, because I feel like throwing away my money on a taxi to make an appointment instead of taking the bus.

Firstly, SK old pal, Zdenek is BP. That means you can't even nightkill him in endgame if you wanted to. That means you need to find his buddy, and fast--even if it weren't for our ultimatum.

Benmage, I appreciate you not tunneling us and proving that part of my tirade wrong, but if your only two suspects are Magua and Zdenek...then why did...why did you...why...

That's it. I want the next words out of your mouth to be, "I apologize, guys, for singlehandedly losing the game through multiple shortsighted decisions that I made unilaterally instead of listening to the town. And to be honest, I only governed Zdenek because I'm arrogant and wanted an excuse to use my power before my death. I didn't actually care if he was scum. Boy, have I learned my lesson."

And to answer your question from before, I think Zdenek is Mafia. But I actually wasted my time doing analysis to see if we could afford to lynch him anyway. Hell, having two nightkills tonight would have told us if he had a scumbuddy, but wouldn't have reduced the number of lynches we'd need to win.

Seriously, had you just asked, "Guys, can you just wait a bit before hammering, so I can post something before my death?" I'd have done you the courtesy of unvoting, even though not once has anyone listened to me this game when I asked them to wait for a post or a question. And I am making an effort to stay calm and not throw a hissy-fit right now at the people on my wagon. Zdenek would have been lynched on D2 had everyone not been all "You guys are just scum framing poor, innocent, defenceless Zdenek. Let's lynch Feysal instead, because he mentioned Xtoxm's name in passing!"

I've been

indifferent

about TS all game. I don't like the lynch, but I'd support it since we need a direction.UNVOTE:

Wait. "Indifferent"?

Didn't you say you'd invited us, Benmage, and Kast to your wedding table because you thought all three of us were town?

Finally, something has been bothering me. It's been bothering me all game but I couldn't decide whether it was scummy or not, probably because I was concerned I was being biased. And that something is this: TS has taken every opportunity to remind people that I could be the SK. Ever since Zoraster claimed his real role, that has been their line. I don't mean to say they've been shouting 'LL IS SK' all game. It's just that where most people were happy to say that a lyncher's target is pretty much likely to be town, TS was keen to keep that thread of doubt running. Now that has come to fruition because people actually think I might be the SK. To me, that speaks of a desire to keep suspect options open for future mislynches. The push now is quite clearly one of 'LL MUST be the SK, because what other possible explanation could there be'? This is reminiscent of Magna defending Macavitar in ACoK when he made it sound ridiculous that Mac could actually be scum after he'd been tracked to a kill. So, I'm going to finally put Magua out of his misery and:

To be honest, the Gregor-is-an-SK thing on D2 was mostly hitogoroshi's theory, and I personally have no fucking clue anymore. But how do people independently deciding today that you might be the SK make us retroactively scummier? If anything, it means the theory wasn't that large a leap for a townie to make. Is there anything else behind your vote?

Also, I don't see the similarity between wondering if Gregor Clegane could be the SK and MoI absolutely denying that Mac could possibly be scum after being tracked to be a kill.

TS: I'm inclined towards Stark. When I've got more time I'll demonstrate why.

What do you think of my plan? Will you promise to lynch the SK in endgame unless he kills a suspect tonight?

Also, how the hell do you think I'm Stark instead of the SK? Because I will go out on a limb and say that a TS-MoI-Zdenek scumteam is utterly impossible given Day Two (and also, your Nexus-blocked-Setael theory is fail when Nexus would know there were at least two Starks alive that night). And what happened to your theory that Magua and dana were scumbuddies distancing?

When you return from your V/LA, I'd be very interested in seeing a full list of Stark and SK suspects from both you and LMP, as well as detailed reasoning behind your hierarchy.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Fair enough. You get to stay off my approved SK kills list.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Preview-edit @Benmage: we're voting for Locke Lamora, and he obviously isn't Mafia; I also agree with hito's and Magua's points about his play. If it's not LL, it's Magua by PoE. But some of Magua's posts don't seem as though they're coming from a scum motivation.

Also, take a good look at the guy you just governed. Go on, look at him. I'm still waiting on that apology.

---------------------------------

Magua, do you agree with

my

plan? If two confirmed town die tonight and you wind up in a kingmaker (hito is pedantic and says that apparently, Prisoner's Dilemma is inaccurate game theory terminology ) with a Stark and an SK, will you promise to vote for the Stark to win? It's imperative that every single player in the suspect pool agrees to it, because they're the ones who can choose to steal the SK's victory if he shoots off-list. The threat only holds weight if we all mean business.

Anyway, discussed this with hito a bit.

Firstly, there's the issue that scum don't volunteer to be lynched in the first place, so it's stupid to lynch the first person to offer his head on a platter. Except of course, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM, you shouldn't be suggesting it as town, either, because it's a stupid antitown plan, etc. (That reminds me, I still have questions for you saved from D4, but I'll save them for later.) What I want to know is if you're town, why do you want yourself to be lynched first? Also, why aren't you self-voting if you're serious about this plan and think you're the best lynch today?

But anyway, I'm not entirely sold on your plan:

-If there are two Starks, my theory is that they're LynchMePls* and Zdenek. So this is a plan that guarantees the Starks' victory IF there are two Starks (and we should plan for a worst-case scenario). Even you've admitted that it's mostly wishful thinking, because "if there are two Starks, we've already lost."
-Why are we getting lynched before LL if you think LL is the SK? Since your plan guarantees a town loss if there are two scum, it shouldn't even matter to you who's more likely to be Stark. Either the Starks have died out with Zdenek, or we auto-lose. Did this occur to you when you chose your lynch order?
-You think that Locke Lamora is the SK, right, far above LMP and dana? In a LMP/dana/Locke endgame, Locke is not going to be the player lynched.

BUT if the SK follows my list, town could still afford to lynch us, although catching the SK will still be difficult and nasty. Remember, the SK is 100% guaranteed to wind up in

PD

KM if he doesn't hit Stark, so he's forced to follow orders. Either way, I'm not ready to revert to an autopilot lynch list just yet.

Honestly, I will volunteer to be serially killed, even if it's before Zdenek dies. Being lynched makes me go ballistic, but I'd be cool with martyring ourselves for a confirmed townie.

~Mina
-------------------------------

*I still haven't really fleshed out what I'd disliked about LMP--it's more gut and paranoid tinfoil hattery, because his claim is perfectly set-up, and the other ponies disagree with me. Maybe it's that I could buy him being obliviously, aggressively wrong

once

, but his OTT-ness and overblown rhetoric is starting to strain credulity, particularly since I don't think he's been right about anything all game. He's so over-the-top in his dana suspicion, but I don't believe LMP genuinely believes dana's posting is soooooo scummy it makes him "sick." Leaving aside his interactions with Setael, dana just strikes me as dumbtown, at worst null leaning town.

I'd also thought LMP's Setael hammer on D4 felt like a buddy overjustifying his vote. Everyone and their mothers knew Setael was scum at that point. But he felt the need to poke easy holes in Setael's logic behind his champion choice

as

he was hammering. Also, his reactions to Ben's governor REALLY did not feel townish. "Oh, dana is so so so scummy, yadda yadda, he's probably buddies with Zdenek, who I'm going to vote as an afterthought." Then he didn't blink an eye at Ben's govern ability.

Ooh, and remember LMP's attack on Feysal for his slip of assuming there was only one scumteam? I still believe that it was far from a logical assumption for a vig to make when he knew he wasn't responsible for the diddin kill and there'd already been a dayvig. It makes more sense if LMP himself knew about the set-up.

And this is why I need scum meta on both LMP and Magua. Because I'd really thought one of them had to be scum, but each of them has dropped some enormous towntells this game. Also, I need to reread Day Two, because LMP defended scum a lot more openly than I'd expect from buddies.

[Twilight Sparkle]

On my phone, so can't answer everything, but...

OMIGOD.

YOU ARE MISSING THE FUCKING POINT.

WE. ARE GIVING. THE SK. AN ULTIMATUM.

I don't care about who you think deserves it more of the other scum factions. We are town. We want town to win.

If SK kills a scumspect tonight, he's still very very likely to win...BUT town at least has a security blanket in cade there are two Starks. We can use game theory to help the town AND ensure the SK's loyalty. And then, if the SK holds up his end of the bargain, we can still give him a nice shiny win in endgame. It's more rational than voting for whom you like more.

OH MY GOD EVEN IF YOU SECRETLY WANT THE SK TO WIN YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO TELL HIM THAT. WAY TO RUIN EVERYTHING.

This game has been like walking through coals. I don't think anyone has listened to a single theory or suspicion or strategy I've had all game, even though in retrospect they woulhave been the best moves. Maybe I should play like Benmage if I want any to follow my plans.

Oh, fuck it. SK, kill me tonight. If you don't kill me (although I'd settle for someone else on the list), I'm hammering you in LYLO. Think about it. If we mislynch Magua/LL and then lynch Zdebek tomorrow, you'll be stuck with Twilight Sparkle and another scum in LYLO. How's this: SK, would you rather guarantee a loss to Zdenek, or have just a slightly more difficult (but still very manageable) victory over town? Sorry for being so hard on you when you're a lone killer fighting bad odds and all, but I've got to play to my wincon.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Awesome. Locke Lamora is the SK.

Everyone: if you want to know what a frame case really looks like, it wasn't our Zdenek post. It was that. I know you made an awesome interaction-based case on me in Zachtown (when we were both town), and you were much more objective and open-minded even though your evidence against me looked pretty damning. There is no way you actually believe what you're arguing there. I won't defend myself against everything, but I doubt you actually reread the game or looked at other people's actions in context. You decided to vote TS (for a flimsy reason), and then clicked "ISO Twilight Sparkle" and cherry-picked a post every thirty ISOs that you could spin into a Stark interactions.

So I'm still waiting on rankings on whom you think is SK and whom you think is Stark?

Random out of context points taken from our ISO, which I don't feel like quoting

For one thing, did you only notice all this stuff

after

you voted for us? I mean, didn't you notice we didn't react to the vig earlier on? (Note: that's not actually a scumtell. I mean, MoI was doing his damnedest to coax the dayvig into taking out town.) But on D2, you thought we were town.

Also, calling dana more likely to be scum if Mikujin flipped town is...um...do you think dana is our buddy? Because otherwise, that isn't actually a scumtell after a Miku scum flip.

Extra points to saying that my being longwinded in response to MoI is a scum attempt to obscure my posting (um...you have played with me before, right?). And saying that we were distancing because we never voted MoI (to be honest, on D1 I was mostly just pressuring him to get a read, and I never would have lynched MoI over Zdenek on D2, because even I thought he looked town at points)...while ignoring

MagnaofIllusion's

side of the interactions. His vote was on us right out of the gates on D2, and unlike diddin (whose wagon he jumped off as soon as it became credible), he basically did his best to push our lynch and get rid of us. And he actually went out of his way to tarnish our credibility and undermine every one of our comments, not just a token distancing attempt.

(And actually, hito did check with us before moving his vote to ASOIAF. I think he specifically said, "I talked to Mina on AIM" in that very post in which you said, "Look at those scummy scumbags, moving their vote without talking it over when they didn't do the same for MoI." But yeah, I think we were a bit all over the place and slow to reach consensus on D1, because we weren't used to hydraing together.)

ISO 154 onwards: Zdenek's been governed and now I'm the SK. In ISO 147 me being SK is still semi-bastardly. As recently as ISO 149 TS is asking Zdenek whether he is mafia or SK. By the time we get to ISO 159, TS says 'can it be anyone but LL?' Incidentally, this is what I thought was reminiscent of MoI making it sound ridiculous that Mac could be scum in ACoK. Of course the serial killer could be someone other than me. Not that long ago TS thought it could be Zdenek or Magua. Suddenly I MUST be the SK? It's not a genuine thought process.

Firstly, a subtle distinction: I was the one who thought you being SK was semi-bastardly, and hito was the one who cast his vote for you (I think after discussing it with Sotty). hitogoroshi has really been the one who believed all along that you could be the SK. I've come around to the possibility simply because I hate your play today and I can't figure out who else it might be.

But the evolution was very natural. If it's not you, it had to be Magua or Zdenek. By PoE, I think Zdenek is Stark; his interactions with flipped scum all fit like a glove, and I think Nexus would have probably blocked Zdenek twice (given) that there aren't, by PR. And were everyone in the game not confirmed by some extent, I would have declared Magua obvtown based on his play on D6 alone (although I did have the occasional doubt earlier on). That leaves you.

ISO 10-12 are just efforts to work out Cow's restriction. On the surface, this makes sense, but throughout the game TS has been displaying tendencies to do seemingly pro-town things (e.g. work out ways to understand Cow, the Morse code for the wedding) that entail no scumhunting whatsoever. See also the massive rant about Benmage governing Zdenek - yes, we're all annoyed, but spending that much time telling Benmage he's arrogant and anti-town does not give me a pro-town vibe. We all knew he had the potential to be both of those things when we signed up for the game.

THAT'S ONLY A SCUMTELL IF I WAS DOING THAT WITHOUT ALSO SCUMHUNTING, DUMBASS. YES. WELL DONE. I'M SCUMMY FOR HAVING SUGGESTED A CODE THAT BROKE THE WEDDING, AND WOULD HAVE AVOIDED PREMATURE CLAIMS HAD PEOPLE NOT BEEN STUPID. I should have just posted nothing, because then my ratio of scumhunting to set-up speculation posts would be higher. Way to skip over thirty ISO posts that involved scumhunting to go, "Hey guys, look! Here's a post that's protown, but doesn't have scumhunting."

Also, my reaction is called giving a shit that Benmage saved scum for no reason whatsoever. As opposed to your token, "Boy, that was an antitown move, even though Ben is confirmed town." (Never mind that I'm curious if you think that post sounded fake. I can feign outrage as scum, but I don't think I'm capable of

that

level of vitriol. I would definitely not have been that nasty to Benmage had he just handed me the game on a silver platter.)

No, seriously, do you genuinely believe the bullshit you're spewing? "We all knew he had the potential to be both of those things when we signed up for the game." You've got me. I'm angry at Benmage. But I

knew

that Benmage is always arrogant. Therefore, I'm scummy for wanting to dismember him limb for limb for fucking over the town...because really, what did I expect from Benmage?

Finally, I just get the impression that TS is obsessed with the SK. From the open letter to the SK to the seeds of doubt planted on me, TS is SK-hunting. I'm sure TS will freely admit that they're now SK-hunting, but the mentality is all fixated on the SK. Why is the initial appeal to the SK and not the scum? If the scum can't kill the SK, TS should want to strike a deal with the scum to get the SK lynched as much as make an appeal to the SK to be so kind as to help us out. I think TS is scum who's convinced Zdenek is the SK and Benmage just threw the whole plan out of the window so they've been forced to look elsewhere.

You idiot, I'm not SK-hunting to the exclusion of Stark-hunting. I'm ASKING THE FUCKING SK TO KILL A STARK FOR US. IF I'M A STARK, THAT'S ME. I won't even attempt the "why the fuck would I try to force the SK to do something directly against the Stark wincon" defence, because even though it does make zero sense, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM, no one ever listens to my plans anyway. And what the fuck are you talking about, "Benmage flew that plan out of the window." If I'm Stark, I'd want SK-Zdenek alive so that he kills another confirmed townie for me, not lynched! I would be sending Benmage love letters right now.

Also, to Magua: the whole reason I appealed to the SK first was 1) there's probably a non-BP Stark out there (whereas I doubt Starks could kill the SK if they wanted to), and 2) I'd thought I could show the SK that numerically, it was in his best interest to take out the Starks first. Then when I did the scenarios and realized the SK would always wind up in (*sighs*) Kingmaker, I went, "Heeeey,

wait

a minute. What if I use the town as bargaining power?"

As for your plan, I think Zdenek's the SK. So I promise to lynch Zdenek tomorrow when he's no longer unlynchable.

Nice evasion. Say Zdenek is Stark instead of SK. Do you agree to the plan? Hell, why don't you tell the SK that if he doesn't nightkill me tonight, you will personally lynch him in LYLO?

Please kill me tonight, Locke. Then you can push Zdenek tonight and then use it as an argument against LMP in PD/KM/WTVR, or then get LMP to vote dana over you in LYLO.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

LMP, can you unvote?

Zdenek can hammer right now.

[Twilight Sparkle]

...never mind, pops moved his vote.

Ignore me.

[Twilight Sparkle]

Oh, LMP! I have to go, but what do you think of my plan?

Should we promise to give the Stark the victory unless the SK kills someone in the suspect pool tonight?

Or hell, do you want to do it vice-versa? Give the SK the victory unless the

Stark

votes scum?

Please. If I can get every single person in the game to agree to this plan, I would actually self-vote. We have to force the SK (or hell, even a Stark, if that makes everyone happier) to kill from the suspect pool tonight. You don't understand what a huge difference that will make in the long run.

I hate hate HATE that you are trying to tar the Feysal wagon in hindsight. That wagon was super solid, the observations behind it were incredibly good, and I'll stand by that wagon till hell freezes over. Feysal had all the signs of Stark scum. This quote makes me think TS-Stark. Trying to beat us up over the mislynch we made earlier that YOU stayed off of screams scummy to me.

Firstly, do you think Zdenek is Stark or SK?

Secondly, I was on the mislynch. We switched to Feysal at deadline.

Thirdly, why do you like Magua's plan when it guarantees that dana is left for LYLO, and Super!Town Magua is lynched first?

Fourthly, the wagon was far from "super-solid" or "incredibly good," and if you genuinely believe it was, then you are delusional and will never ever learn from your mistakes.

To be honest, it was a pretty mediocre-to-crappy case on a player who was somewhat wishy-washy and cautious, but not blatantly scummy, and that only went through because you tunneled like a blind idiot on him and called everyone who disagreed with you scum, thus pressuring people into going with the crowd and feeling like there was something wrong with them if they had doubts. "All the signs of being Stark" were pretty much that Feysal coincidentally mentioned Starks in passing.

I'm genuinely on the fence with LMP right now--I know he has a reputation for being scary scum, but he looked so town on D2. It all depends on how many Starks there are. But if you're town, I will say that you have played poorly.

You misused your vig kill on the advice of scum, your town-to-scum lists probably had a higher proportion of scum at the top than at the bottom, and you've done jack-shit lately. I have no clue where you're getting the scumtells you've noticed this game, because they seem to have little connection with actual scum alignments.

I am being so harsh because I thought your reaction to Feysal at the end of D2 ("Neener neener, it's all

your

fault") was extremely odious, obnoxious and smug. I personally think that you played more of a part in the Feysal mislynch than Feysal himself did. So the gloating and lack of humility left a horrible taste in my mouth.

I'm really getting sick of dealing with arrogant players who cannot admit when they screw up--and not just in this game, but sitewide. Maybe I'll make an MD rant when this is over.

And yes, I will admit that I will be bitter if I'm lynched before Zdenek, and I don't care if you think that's me taking credit for being right or AtE-ing or whatever. I'm getting sick of being listened to when I'm right and ignored when I'm wrong, but that's another story, and totally irrelevant to whether you

should

lynch me.

I am going to assume for a moment that you are town (because if you are scum, then you've done your job very well). When you tunnel someone like that and it results in a mislynch, don't blame it on the victim. Take a step back and reevaluate. If you want to have a laugh, check my (Mina's) first game on this site, in which I hound a poor townie until his lynch. I've tunneled and been wrong, too. It's much scarier to always doubt yourself and second-guess everything, but it's a much healthier playstyle.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

By the way, a belated EBWOP:

I'm getting sick of being listened to when I'm right and ignored when I'm wrong"

Um...obviously, substitute "right" and "wrong" in that sentence.

Hmmm.

Unvote

...goddamn it, stop confusing me.

So, um, is...there a reason you're unvoting? You agree with my characterization of your post as a frame case? Did you develop a town read or not-that-scummy read on us?

You're not going to defend yourself after I've called you the SK?

And thanks, LMP. By the way, you prefer my plan to Magua's (in which the Starks kill him tonight or lose to the SK in Whatever-the-Hell-the-Correct-Game-Theory-Terminology-Is)?

Players who will give Stark a guaranteed victory if the SK doesn't try to take out a Stark tonight

Twilight Sparkle
LynchMePls

Players who will give SK a victory unless the Starks kill him

Magua

Herp derp, kill a confirmed townie instead of a suspect, SK, because you're so cool and awesome!

Benmage

Waiting on a response

Locke Lamora
Cow
danakillsu
Shadow
popsofctown

Doesn't count because he's obvscum

Zdenek

Of course, if Zdenek feels like claiming, we could offer his team (whatever it is) a better option. Believe it or not, if a non-confirmed townie is going to die tonight

anyway

, it's actually better for your scum faction to be doing the dirty work. Because they have the freedom to choose the death (say, Starks can take out a likely SK suspect, while the SK can take out a likely Stark).

And I'm seriously starting to wonder if Zdenek has two kills a night or something. Maybe I should reread dana from the POV of him being scum.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

*sighs*

danakillsu, you are completely missing the point.

You don't need to understand anything behind the logic of the plan, and it only becomes invalidated if we hit the SK today. Just say this:

"If the SK kills someone scummy tonight, then I, danakillsu, promise to let him win if I'm left in a final three with one SK and one Stark. Meanwhile, if the SK kills someone confirmed, then I, danakillsu, promise to let the Starks win instead."

Remember, if the SK fucks us over, it's going to be the people in the suspect pool who will have the choice. The people who most need to agree to this are dana and Locke. Magua can sit off on his own "Fuck you, Starks, I'm going to vote the SK to win no matter what," island as long as he's the only one there, because the Starks can't leave him alive after that.

Thanks, pops. Shadow, can you agree to the plan?

And SK, I really hope you follow through with this. Because I will not enjoy giving a victory to MoI and Zdenek.

Benmage, unvote until I get a confirmation from several players that they will stick to the plan. Zdenek can quickhammer right now.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

LMP and LL lynches are both good lynches, but for different reasons.

LL isn't Stark, unless zoraster was lying. LMP isn't SK unless he pulled the worlds stupidest gambit (claiming the scumkill as sk d2..bluh...?)

An LMP townflip pretty much confirms we only have one Stark remaining. Also, regarding Magua's logic that LMP can't be Stark, I disagree. Smart money had him as being oneshot (otherwise he wouldn't have claimed so casually). Smart money ALSO has a nk-immune SK. Between the two factors, it's not at all unlikely to assume that the SK wouldn't view fakeclaiming LMP as a threat (whether due to him being kill immune, or thinking LMP is oneshot). Certainly not enough for the protective element of MoI's role to trump the roleblock on a townie.

As for LL...yeah, I can accept that the setup is a bit odd. But his play (66 post ISO wat) is pretty congruent with SK who got pseudo-confirmed as town and proceeded to go go gadget coast the rest of the game.

Dana as Stark makes extremely little sense. As sk, outside fringe possible, but inv immune in a game that has a godfather already? Poor kast.

Magua could also be SK, but it's such an inspired fucking play coming from him as opposed to LL. not sure if I could see sk giving that much of a shit throughout the game.

so, to review:

SK is probably one of LL or Magua.

Zdenek is stark. If he has a buddy, it's probably LMP.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

yeah actually more I think about it, LMP is better than LL. Unless there are two starks and neither of them are LMP, lynching LMP is a great move. Regardless of his flip, there's only one stark left, so:

Lynch LMP, 9

Assume the sk and scum don't cancel eachother out, 7

lynch zdenek, 6

there's only one kill, 5

five people sk hunting, get two chances, lynch both LL and Magua. seems like the winning move!

Come to think of it, this has Magua-sk making a little more sense, because it explains why he'd come out with that weird defense of LMP.

regardless Mina has been the most engaged of us three and I'd like to chat with her about the LMP voteswap before I do it. I think she supports it (Mina if you do you can do it without talking to me, you have my blessing) but never hurts to double-check.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

P-edit: TS, from your perspective, if there are two Starks and neither of them are LMP, doesn't that make Dana and Zdenek obv-scum?

Yes, and I think that Dana as a Stark goon is really fucking unlikely.

ergo, I think the starks are either Zdenek and LMP or just Zdenek.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

...oh, fuck.

Okay, I have work and will be out all day, and no time to discuss this with hito/Sotty, but don't hammer yet.

Just realize the "Lynch LMP to narrow the suspect pool" plan conflicts with the "Force the SK to kill the second Stark" plan.

Magua, I changed my mind. You have to agree to the plan. Because I looked at the scenarios, and tonight is when we need a suspect to die. It doesn't matter if you eat a Stark NK the night before Kingmaker.

I am going to cry. Just watch, the scum will be Dana and Shadow.

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

Also, Locke, why didn't you respond to that big post, or to my questions about your unvote?

Did something about my post give you the impression we're a deluded townie?

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

I assume you're on your phone now with no AIM access? well fuck we can just use the thread to chat

The idea behind an LMP lynch is that, regardless of whether he flips Stark or Lannister, there ISN'T a second Stark to deal with. This can only be wrong if there are Starks in: Gregor Clegane, the confirmed wedding planner and supertown shadow, would have to be goon and bussing like a motherfucker dana, Jamie Lannister.

In which case, shit, let the sk kill who he wants. It's not kingmaker if the Stark kill goes away when Zdenek dies. It's five man lynch then three man LYLO. no kingmaker here cap'n.

So, lynching LMP is only really bad if one of {dana, pops, shadow, LL} is Stark, and any of them as Stark would just blow my mind.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Sorry for the delay. I could log onto ebuddy, but I've been running like mad getting ready for work, and was in a taxi with a chatty driver.

See, the optimal move would be to lynch a SK suspect

and then

force the SK to kill LMP. Because he can't take the risk of there being two scum and winding up in KM. But I don't suppose we can change the deal now.

Meh. Last-minute dana-Stark paranoia, I guess. If there are six Starks, I'd doubt they'd all have roles, and it's not ENTIRELY impossible he was distancing from Setael.

Have to go. Still have questions for Magua, but I don't know who's a better lynch option, so use your judgment.

Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

I want Twilight Sparkle in all my games. Or at least their reaction pics.

Stop encouraging him. *wince*

~Mina

[Twilight Sparkle]

don't mind Mina, she just drank a bunch of haterade for breakfast

(seriously though, best uses of reaction pictures are situational. if I spammed them they wouldn't be nearly so appropriate)

Anyway:

unvote

I'll refrain from voting LMP until I hear Mina's thoughts on Dana-scum (because if dana is scum the whole plan goes tits-up) but unless dana-scum looks way more likely than it does from where I'm sitting I'm thinking a LMP lynch is best.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Upon reflection/chatting with Mina, I think Magua is actually a more likely SK than Locke. His "lynch me today or not at all" rings a bit hollow, and his defense of LMP seems a bit post-hoc from a perspective of "how can I keep LMP alive today?" - which SK would LOVE to do if they thought LMP could be Stark. I'd be down for a switch onto Magua from LMP, if we could get momentum. Otherwise I'll vote LMP tomorrow sometime.

Eitehr we, we lynch Zdenek tomorrow and see where we stand.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

we were writing up our suspicions in QT but then Mina's power went out or something (she just dropped) and sotty had to sleep

luckily, it seems like people are seeing what we're seeing without us having to write shit! I'd be paranoid if it wasn't the conf. towns. so I'm just gonna post what we have in it's unpolished, embroynic state

Hito's Bit

Lets hop back in our wayback machine to earlier today:

You know what? I'm just flailing at this point. I've really lost all desire to do anything else this day.

I want to lynch Zdenek. I really do. But I can't.

I want to lynch Locke Lamora. Not as much as Zdenek, but I still really do. Anything having to do with the setup aside, I don't like his play. Everything about it is fence-sitting. Even now he's fence-sitting. I. Just. Don't. Like. It. But there's not the votes.

So you know what? I give up. Benmage, hasdgfas, pops, just fucking pick someone to lynch and lets be on with it so we can get on to tomorrow where we can actually lynch Zdenek. I simply don't care anymore.

Zdenek > Locke Lamora > Twilight Sparkle > LynchMePls > danakillsu

Well what do you want me to do Magua. My number one pick for scum was governed. The rest of the town is quasi confirmed or full confirmed. Those who aren't confirmed in some degree have played a good town game. The only other option I'd be allowed is LL, and I disagree with you on LL. I have to grab at straws. Are you referring to my play all game? If that's the case, I'm surprised you let it go on for dozens of pages, and only commented on it roundabout survival motive time.

That was pointed almost entirely on your post trying to draw a connection between Setael and I as being buddies and Setael protecting me.

If I can't get a Zdenek lynch, I want a Locke lynch. If I can't get a Locke lynch, I want a Twilight lynch. Benmage has stated pretty upfront that I'm getting lynched in preference to Twilight. Benmage also said Zdenek is town. I'm not going to fucking argue with him because it will just make my head explode.

But saying I'm Stark or that Setael and I are buddies really flies in the face of posts 1 through 106 or so of this game. EVERYTHING ELSE ASIDE, if I'm Stark, that means I'm taking credit for the SK kill, claiming scum to the SK before everyone had even claimed while simultaneously arguing there was no SK, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc. Not to mention the aforementioned if I'm Stark then it means that I have bussed every single day except for D2.

If I'm going to be lynched, then it's going to be outside of lylo. There's zero reason for me to survive the lynch today if it only means coming back to me D7. That's fine. But bullshit things like a Setael-Magua connection just make my lynch look stupid, which isn't fine.

So, defeatist townie, planning dramatically for his lynch.

Now let's look at some other reactions to him being suspected/voted:

You only seem to think I'm scum when I'm voting you.

Random unwarranted snark (if we were going for pure self-preservation, we'd go LMP), avoiding the issue we're mentioning (that pretty fucking clearly has nothing to do with you voting us.)

And no. Nor, at this point, do I care, since you've spent the last ten real life days saying I'm your #2 scumread, you can't vote your #1, yet you're not voting me. So I feel no need to explain anything to you because it doesn't mean a goddamn thing.

Feel free to vote me for this.

****Magua just must go before TS.

Remember this.

I started this day respecting your opinion. Just fyi.

These did not come from the same mindset. He's being snarky and bullying people off of his lynch, but if you're a townie, you don't JUST care about not being mislynched, you also care about who IS lynched.

Let's look at Magua. LMP? He went from saying "is not stark" to "could be stark" after we called out his bullshit reason (without ever acknowledging it.) Twilight Sparkle? He's done nothing but say we're "a better lynch than LMP" and vote us with no other reasoning. Locke? He's just said "YOU'RE PLAYING SO SHITTY I DON'T NEED TO RESPOND TO YOUR ATTACK ON ME"...but he's not trying to get anyone else on a Locke wagon.

Magua isn't looking for scum. He's trying to avoid being lynched.

And let me add that 2876, posted after I wrote that bit, is so crazy confirming me it's not even funny. LynchMePls OR Locke Lamora? Town-Magua seriously doesn't have a preference yeaeaaaahhhhhhh okay. And Sparkle over either of the two - with absolutely no stated reason as to why - seems like a ploy to get us to argue with you why we're town instead of voting you. for that matter your arguments with LL seem more focused on discrediting him, and your "scummier than a fish tank that hasn't been cleaned for years" rings pretty hollow with us apparently a better lynch after zden?

Quotes picked by Sotty: Mina had more to say on this but electicity is a fickle mistress (assuming that is what actually happened)

Sotty's Found Quotes

Magua looking back I see you were right and I did say sheeping last night in reference to your position on us. That is poor wording on my part. I agree you aren't sheeping but not just because you were the first vote on us, but because you haven't made any kind of case on us outside activity. I still like my shield comment though, it's like your using MoI and Ben to hide your lack of any real input towards us.

My read on you isn't because of your activity. If it was activity, I'd be over Kast or DTMaster. My read on you is over the complete lack of content you posted up until #1060. I say this in #615 and #1050. Neither of those mention activity at all. What they mention is the lack of anything useful in your posts. I call you on waffling. I call you on having zero scumreads before #1060.

More on this after the break:

*Snip*

Now, stuff.

Twilight's case on Zdenek is exactly what I'm looking for out of that slot.

*Snip*

Other than that, I like the case...but I'm not convinced by it. I could buy Zdenek as bussing diddin D1 where I can't buy diddin bussing Raivann. Twilight's suspicion of Zdenek is at least set-up for the last few days. But, I retain suspicion of Twilight Sparkle nonetheless. Call it lingering suspicion.

In the meantime, I believe LynchMePls, and I think he's town. But I'm not getting his attack on Feysal, at least the impetus of it: If there's two scumteams, then doesn't that completely invalidate the "Feysal slipped knowing that there's only one scumteam D1" theory?

UNVOTE: Twilight Sparkle

Unnominate: Setael

VOTE: Nexus

Nominate: Twilight Sparkle

So, after ruminations, I've decided that I don't believe Zdenek is scum. Twilight's case on Zdenek is mostly "Here's a post-by-post analysis, and here's the scummy things I found" without tying it into, eg, actions that were taken and associations with already flipped scum. Rereading Zdenek's D1, I can see the possibility of the bus (unlike with Raivann), but it's far more likely that he's simply not scum.

My preferred lynch is Twilight Sparkle.
UNVOTE: Nexus
VOTE: Twilight Sparkle

I will vote Feysal near deadline to avoid a no lynch if necessary, but I'd rather by far lynch Twilight.

I had some reservations with your post - the unpushed vote that sat alone on V/LA Nexus seem pretty much guaranteed not to go anywhere. I got the vibe that, “I expect the other scum to jump off of Twilight, and I want to be first. But I guess I can slide back on if needed." Lo and behold, you’re back - but why, exactly?

I wanted to see what would happen, specifically whether anyone would complain about it. Nothing did, which was less than useful. I gave it a few days, and then put it back as the deadline approached.

My reason for putting it back on you is the same as it's ever been: you're the one I most want to lynch.

As well, there’s a giant elephant in the room with “tying it to other players" - the Feysal case. You have yet to say what you think of it (you said you didn’t understand it, it was clarified, and you subsequently fell silent.) This would seem to be right up your alley, and yet you’re not voting or nominating Feysal - instead, you’re both voting AND nominating us.

I find Feysal triggers all of my scum-buttons in general: he vacillates, he fence-sits, he posts pro's and con's of everything put before him. I thought he was scum in Consulmaker II, but he wasn't. He's just an incredibly cautious player. I go over this briefly in post #1167. I can *easily* see Feysal-town add "And diddin." into a post.

So most of the items that LMP calls him on are null tells for me, and I have a town read on Feysal. Mentioned in post #1321.

Your hop back on to us seems, to put it charitably, insincere. You don’t think Zdenek is scum. Swell. Why do you think we’re scum? And why isn’t Feysal?

Do you believe my reasons for starting your wagon were sincere?

Alternative question: What do you see as the scum motivation?

Would you be willing to lynch Nexus?

Ah, Twilight Sparkle. I wrote two pages of replies to you, and ended up deleting it because I realized I could summarize it very easily:

If you think that my case has only been about your inactivity, then you've stopped reading my posts circa #1049. Furthermore, I really don't care about convincing you that I'm right and you're scum, since that's never going to happen, and at this point, neither is your lynch.

Mina's angry at me if I'm town. Trust me that the feeling is reciprocal. We'll find out soon enough.

Sotty's commentary on these quotes:

Sotty Commentary

Reading Magua really left his options open to jump right back on us during his initial unvote. Not being "convinced" by the Zden case and backdooring a "lingering suspicion" on us. It feels reasonable and yet underhanded all at the same time.

The scummiest thing I can say about the whole situation is how he unvotes and then 100+ posts later (four days) he comes right back to us. I think it was Mina who said it felt like he expected a rush off our wagon/TS sudden support and when that didn't happen he felt content to push back on us.

The fence sitting around us is what is sticking out as I read back post 1321 he throws us a bone saying our Zden case is what he was expecting of us but it doesn't clear everything.

Nexus does come out and post a whole bunch of content just before Magua switches vote but Magua comments on none of it. Even when we push back on him he doesn't reference Nexus' content. There is a disconnect there. He also painfully deflects our questions in post 1539


We ask: You don’t think Zdenek is scum. Swell. Why do you think we’re scum? And why isn’t Feysal?

He replies: Do you believe my reasons for starting your wagon were sincere?

Alternative question: What do you see as the scum motivation?

Would you be willing to lynch Nexus?

Complete dodge.

So yeah. let's lynch Magua.

Vote: Magua

(L-1)

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Similarly, Twilight's vote for me isn't scummy. Twilight feeling they need to build a multipage case against me at this point *is* scummy. Posting a huge wall about why you're voting someone who's already at L-2 24 hours from deadline reeks of justification.

You were at L-4 when we started writing it, and this close to deadline, yeah, it's kinda important to get why we're voting you on the table. Also it's not really a huge wall, it just has a lot of quotes.

Also:

The question is, is he a one-shot CPR doc, or is he something else? And all of the evidence is that he's a 1-shot CPR doc. LMP claimed long before me (he claimed D2), and he claimed one-shot D3, both before my claim D4. This lends a lot of weight to his claim, and is one of the reasons I trust it so much. And then there's the matter of motivation: certainly, an SK could claim the kill. But why? What's the motivation? More scrutiny on them? Want to draw the NK onto themselves (NK immune or not, it's bad for them)? No. It's just like hasdgfas. You could have a one-shot scum dayvig. But what's the motivation to shoot their own partner instead of just saving the power? None.

People who are all "Well, one of Magua or LMP must be scum" are trying to line up mislynches. I believe LMP's claim. 100%.

*snores*

Tomorrow, Zdenek
Then Twilight Sparkle
Then LynchMePls or Locke Lamora

I understand "townie who is unflappable in the face of danger" and "townie desperately trying to leave a good gamestate behind them" are both good masks to wear, but you kinda need to pick one or the other to be convincing. Or do you not really care whether we lynch the person who's "scummier than a fish tank" or the person who's claim you believe 100%?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Zdenek is Stark, but we're not lynching him today.

We need to lynch SK, not Stark today. A post explaining why is below. I was apparently wrong about who the sk was - I was SURE it was Locke - so ignore that part. But the underlying principle is still sound. I have class now (I'm actually late waiting for this damn game) so no one vote for now. When I'm back I'll look in to this. For now, read that post, everything is good except who the sk is.

No one vote yet.

Spoiler: The Post I wrote overnight

Zdenek is Stark, but we're not lynching him today.

(Note: I wrote this post assuming there were two kills overnight. If there's only one, we *should* be good lynching zdenek, but give me a chance to run the numbers for the new gamestate before doing anything please.)

Here's a scanned bit explaining my thought process. It's a bit big (1000X1373) so I'll make it a hotlink for people on phones.

For those who are on their phones or just can't understand my terrible handwriting, here's how it goes:

• The only gamestates we're gonna be left with are town wins or town kingmakers (where town loses but picks the winner.)
  
• In Kingmaker, town is free to spitefully lynch whoever they want, since their wincon is impossible.
  
• Because I am town, I am free to pledge that I am lynched in a kingmaker situation, because I have lost anyway.
  
• As SK or Stark, I am unwilling to make this pledge because it basicially guarantees I'll lose.
  
• I am making this pledge now:
  Lynch me if the towns win-condition is impossible to fulfill.
  
  
• This pledge is only sensible if I suspect I can force a gamestate where town fulfills its win-condition.
  
• I would only want to do this if I win when town fulfills it's win-condition.
  
• QED, I'm town.

Now that THAT bit is out of the way, here's why we're lynching Locke. In essence, we win as long as there's only one kill tonight. Because of this, scum and sk have every incentive to coordinate their kills and avoid overkill, before trying to secure a kingmaker win.

Lynching Locke gives us one kill a night, lynching Zdenek probably gives us two and sends us to the badtimes kingmaker.

Note that if Dana is SK, this is an auto-loss. This is a blip of probability I'm comfortable eating. If Dana is sk...just...goddamnit it.

It also fails if Zdenek is SK but he's NOT (PoE, probable nexus-block, etc).

So we lynch Locke, and then Zdenek, and if the game is still continuing we lynch LMP.

**A Locke vote was here but obviously that ain't happening now.**

If you disagree with my plan, feel free to raise objections, but I'd better not see any Zdenek votes. Right now the Starks WANT zdenek dead, because their only chance involves a double-kill tonight. LMP-Stark WANTS to bus his buddy for all he's worth. Don't let him.

-hito (but due to the time sensitivity, I posted this in QT for the first person online when the thread opens to post)

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

There's 1 stark left.

Why are you so certain on this one? I mean, if I was sure killing Zdenek would give us one kill tonight, I'd be all over that shit. But I just can't see Zdenek as SK after that Nexus block, and I think 2 starks left is more likely than one.

Don't get lazy on me now, Ben. Take out your pencil, and actually work out the fucking endgames. Or, failing that, at least look at the scanned picture of me taking out my pencil and actually working out the fucking endgames.

hito, who is your SK now that LL is dead? By your own analysis, the only SKs were you and LL, and LL is gone.

Dana I guess? Goddamn he reads town and another inv-immune is mean to kast, but we're getting pretty bottom of the barrel for sk's here. Cow-sk would be just too goddamn bastardly, imo. Regardless I want to talk with the other heads on this one before passing any judgement.

TS-scum is certain.

And TS-Stark or TS-SK decided to derail surefire zdenek wagon and declare themselves open season in town kingmaker because...?

All of the remaining scum are in: {TS, Zdenek, dana}. Either 2 of those 3 if the Starks only have 1 left, or all three if they don't. As for SK, that's clearly not dana, as I would expect SK to not show up vanilla to rolecop. So it's TS or Zdenek as SK. Since Zdenek's play the last couple of days has practically claimed scum, I see no reason to not lynch him first.

what's extra-funny about this post is that you're probably Stark with Zdenek, but you really DO think I'm the sk.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Ben, I said "don't get lazy", not "be extremely lazy".

If we fuck up and lynch one of two starks, we lose. If we lynch the sk, we're pretty much guaranteed victory. NOW is the time end this shit, not to lazily float along and say "eh Zden's some anti-town faction. lynch him. whee".

I admit, there *could* be one or two Starks. There's no way to be sure. That's why I want to find SK FIRST. Then we lynch one Stark, then the other if the game is still ticking.

Looking at the list:

5) Benmage - Hand of the King - confirmed

9) Danakillsu - Tone is town, another inv-immune is mean to kast with Set being immune. But PoE makes him likely?

10) Hasdgfas - If Cow is the sk I will rage at faraday so fucking hard

11) LynchMePls - Extremely unlikely sk. Claiming the Stark kill as the sk on day two? Who the fuck does that?

14) Shadow1psc - A serial killer...who also sets the wedding tables? .-. And townie tone to boot.

15) Zdenek - Almost certainly blocked by Nexus N4. THOUGH ACTUALLY. Fuck. Set was conf. scum N4 wasn't she? Nexus might've blocked Set? I suppose Zdenek SK is possible, though that quickhammer seems much more like Stark-Zdenek keeping Stark-LMP safe.

18) Twilight Sparkle - confirmed town assuming I'm playing to my wincon, which I am.

I need to talk to Mina about this.

-

To try and look town? Because it's highly unlikely to get you actually lynched in KM, while it might by you "look how awesome I am I must be town" points? Is this a serious question? You know you're coming into clear POE zone, and you want to try and cut that off as much as possible? For every town-TS motivation for those actions there is a scum-TS motivation for them.

"It's highly unlikely to get you actually lynched in Kingmaker" is moronic. I've just erected a machine that will confirm me as town due to a clever divergance in optimal play, and you're saying it doesn't count because

the town might not follow through?

The solution to this problem is pretty straightforward: 1.) stop being dumb and 2.)

follow fucking through.

Saying that my confirmation doesn't count because "we might let you win as a potential SK or Stark" is infuriating. NO. I am creating a situation where I auto-lose as Stark or SK, so I can walk in to it and be confirmed town.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Ya, I should just sit back and trust everyone to blindly follow through. That's a purely optimal plan, thanks for putting my fears to rest...

"Hey guys, I have a special gun that only kills SK and scum. If I promise to be shot by it, I'm confirmed town! It's awesome!"

"Lol, obvscum. What happens if we don't pull the trigger?"

To which my response is: "

So promise to pull the fucking trigger!

"

Anyway, chatting with Mina. If you couldn't guess, that Locke flip fucked our reads up something fierce. Obviously, lynching Zden gets rid of a bad guy, but we lose if he's Stark with a buddy. Expect the results of our musings soonish. The short of it is that there are good reasons to believe Zdenek, Dana, and LMP aren't SK, but clearly one of them is wrong. We're endeavoring to figure out which.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Oh goddamnit so LMP didn't hammer Zdenek there?

man LMP/Zdenek starkteam was my top pick

anyway SOMEONE take their fucking vote off of Zden please and thanking you.

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Yeah, that would make us lose. I'm 95% sure that's not the case.

where the fuck did that 95% come from

[Twilight Sparkle]

actually I think shadow has the right of it. This was a really silly brinksmanship way to test it but it worked out. Zden has posted in theme park and not self-hammered here. I'm pretty sure the subsets {zdenek wants to self-hammer} and {we want zdenek dead today} span the entire space of possible gamestates, and we're not in the first subset, soooo

but eh no rush if someone thinks they can prove me wrong, otherwise we'll probably throw down thoughts and hammer soonish

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Okay. Cow is town. Shadow is probably town.

I think LMP is more likely Stark than Dana, but not so much that I want to quickvote and end it.

There's a good chance there's only one Stark left - the reason we were wrong about Zdenek's alignment is because there were SO FEW possible Starks.

Now to drudge through the muck one last time and see what I can see~

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

LMP are you seriously saying you think it's 18:4:2:1

[Twilight Sparkle]

With the amount of powerroles we've had? Yes. we had 3 confirmed "mason-like" players, a role cop, a doctor, a one-shot dayvig, a one-shot night vig, a one-shot cpr doc, Jamie-message-people-role-thingy, a roleblocker... help me out here, I'm probably missing some. Not to mention that with the exception of the wedding (which we worked around anyways) there was another set of in-game events that pretty much all favored town.

...which is why I am willing to bet real cash money there are more than four fucking starks, yes

Are you seriously suggesting that someone flipping with a named group in a different color from the "Self-Aligned" and town flips shouldn't be considered as a scum team? It seems pretty fucking blatant to me.

I assume it was just to distinguish it from the lyncher in terms of colors in the OP.

A serial killer is a different thing than a scumgroup. Being bulletproof goes a long way in this game. And third-parties generally expect a lower win-rate than the other factions. It's fair, in other words, to have a low chance to win, AS A SINGULAR THIRD PARTY.

But 4 and 2? So not only are both scumgroups tiny relative to supertown (With crosskills being more of a bugger), but one scumgroup is just randomly half the size of the other? for serious?

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

But 4 and 2? So not only are both scumgroups tiny relative to supertown (With crosskills being more of a bugger), but one scumgroup is just randomly half the size of the other? for serious?

1) How is that any worse than an SK who is solo? Is [19-4-1-1] better? Or are you saying there are 2 Starks left? Because if so, you have a lot of explaining to do, because your position keeps conveniently changing about the Starks. First its LL-SK me and Zdenek Stark, then its Zdenek-SK LMP and ??? Stark? If lynching dana doesn't end the game, then you're clearly the last of (insert whichever group is left, most likely Stark).
2) I guess 5-2 can't be ruled out?

We have four - four! A ha ha ha - Starks dead. It's probably 18:5:1:1. The reason we thought Zdenek was probable Stark and not SK was that there were so few possible Starks aside from him. If there are two Starks left and neither was Zden...jesus fuck.

I just don't believe that flip means "Serial Killer". Especially when looking at the SK flip from ACoK. The serial killer flip there was explicit in both "self-aligned" AND "serial killer". This flip lacked BOTH.

That game also lacked a rolecop which I imagine is the definitive bit here.

Also: You think that the 2 sized scumgroup has a vanilla and the Starks got 4 PRs?

[Twilight Sparkle]

Goddamn it. I just pulled a Faraday. Take Two:

All right, so the three of us have talked it over, and we're all ready to vote LMP.

If anyone has a reason we should delay our L-1 vote, now's your chance to speak up. But I mean, from our PoV, the scum are obviously one or both of LMP and dana. So nothing will convince me that LMP is a bad lynch today.

To be honest, Sotty and I (Mina) were actually leaning toward dana at the beginning (simply because LMP's tunneling on Feysal had me fooled on D2, while dana has been on autopilot over the past few days), But basically, we get the same impression Shadow did that LMP looks like flailing cornered scum. His defences feel histrionic and are hitting the wrong notes. Also, we hated the way he didn't seem interested in our lynch today until Shadow spelled it out for him (even though LMP called us confirmed scum yesterday).

Right now, I think LMP is the last Stark and genuinely believes that dana is Zdenek's buddy, so is therefore extremely passionate about getting dana lynched first (because remember, we promised to hand Zdenek's faction the win for holding up his end of the deal).

Why would you EVER say this as town?

Although it might be poor play, I've seen town convinced a flip will vindicate him play the "lynch me if I'm wrong" card more often than scum. It's certainly not a scumtell.

Oh, and just one last thing:

LMP, just FYI, your screaming about "OMG, it's LYLO, you caaaaaaaaaaaaaaan't lynch me because Zdenek's flip means two scum factions, so you'll LOSE THE GAME" is hilarious from my POV. I know we're not the target audience, but your pleas would tug on my heart strings more if you weren't essentially arguing that you're 100% confirmed scum to me.

But just a point against your theory:

From A Clash of Kings:

10) Super Smash Bros. Fan -

Self Aligned

-

Bulletproof Serial Killer

- Dual Lynched Day 4

From A Storm of Swords:

Zdenek - Beric Dondarrion -

Brotherhood w/o Banners Aligned

Modified Nk Imm.

was lynched Day 7

For comparisons sake. I've added the colors, to highlight how these flips are radically different.

From A Clash of Kings:

26) Drippereth - Stannis Baratheon -

Innocent Aligned

- Vanilla - Drowned Night 2

1) Chesskid3 -

‘The Imp’ Tyrion Lannister, Lannister Aligned Townie

was killed Night 1

There's no Mafia or Town/Innocent faction in this game. Given the fact that townies flip in red and scum in blue, I can see Faraday calling the

de facto

serial killer a more positive name.

[Twilight Sparkle]

For the record, if there were two scumteams, then today would be Prisoner's Dilemma had they only been careful not to double-kill. Zdenek could have posted in the thread, "You kill Benmage, we kill Cow" in that case.

All right, there's no point putting this off. I even ISO'd Shadow in case of an off-chance dana-Shadow scumteam, and he reeks town from every pore.

VOTE: LynchMePls (L-1)

[Twilight Sparkle]

Mina that is not what Prisoner's Dilemma means

-hito

[Twilight Sparkle]

Oh, really?

Two townies. One Stark. One BwB member.

They go to night. Either they each kill a townie and have a draw, one kills a townie while the other kills the first scum (meaning the defector wins and scum loses), or they both kill each other (meaning they both lose and the town wins). Ergo, Prisoner's Dilemma.

Conclusion: I beat hito at his own game.

~Mina